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Abstract: In school, at least in the US, we were taught to multiply by hand according to a standard algorithm. Most people find that algorithm difficult to use, and many children fail to learn it. We propose a new way to make sense of this difficulty: to treat explicit computation as perceptually supported physical and mental action. Based on recent work in neuroscience, we trace the flow of arithmetic information to emphasize demands on visual working memory and attention. We predict that algorithms that make moderate demands on memory and attention will work better than others that make stronger demands. We suggest that the judicious use of spatial schemas can reduce such cognitive demands. Experimental evidence from children in an inner-city school supports this claim. Our work suggests new ways to think about instruction. The goal should be to minimize demands that present obstacles and maximize instead what human eyes, bodies, and brains do well. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Simple Summary: Breast cancer is a significant cause of female cancer-related deaths in the US. Checking how severe the cancer is helps in planning treatment. Modern AI methods are good at grading cancer, but they are not used much in hospitals yet. We developed and utilized ensemble deep learning algorithms for addressing the tasks of classifying (1) breast cancer subtype and (2) breast cancer invasiveness from whole slide image (WSI) histopathology slides. The ensemble models used were based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) known for extracting distinctive features crucial for accurate classification. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of these models and the used methodology for breast cancer diagnosis tasks. Cancer diagnosis and classification are pivotal for effective patient management and treatment planning. In this study, a comprehensive approach is presented utilizing ensemble deep learning techniques to analyze breast cancer histopathology images. Our datasets were based on two widely employed datasets from different centers for two different tasks: BACH and BreakHis. Within the BACH dataset, a proposed ensemble strategy was employed, incorporating VGG16 and ResNet50 architectures to achieve precise classification of breast cancer histopathology images. Introducing a novel image patching technique to preprocess a high-resolution image facilitated a focused analysis of localized regions of interest. The annotated BACH dataset encompassed 400 WSIs across four distinct classes: Normal, Benign, In Situ Carcinoma, and Invasive Carcinoma. In addition, the proposed ensemble was used on the BreakHis dataset, utilizing VGG16, ResNet34, and ResNet50 models to classify microscopic images into eight distinct categories (four benign and four malignant). For both datasets, a five-fold cross-validation approach was employed for rigorous training and testing. Preliminary experimental results indicated a patch classification accuracy of 95.31% (for the BACH dataset) and WSI image classification accuracy of 98.43% (BreakHis). This research significantly contributes to ongoing endeavors in harnessing artificial intelligence to advance breast cancer diagnosis, potentially fostering improved patient outcomes and alleviating healthcare burdens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. In April 2008, experts reviewed updates on sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention and treatment in preparation for the revision of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) STD Treatment Guidelines. This included a review of cervical cancer screening in the STD clinical setting. Methods. Key questions were identified with assistance from an expert panel. Reviews of the literature were conducted using the PubMed computerized database and shared with the panel. Updated information was incorporated in the 2010 CDC STD Treatment Guidelines. Results. We recommend that STD clinics offering cervical screening services screen and treat women according to guidelines by the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology, the American Cancer Society, the US Preventive Services Task Force, and the American Society for Colposcopists and Cervical Pathologists. New to the 2010 guidelines are higher age for initiating cervical screening (age ≥21 years) and less frequent intervals of screening (at least every 3 years). New recommendations include new technologies, such as liquid-based cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA tests. Liquid-based technologies are not recommended over conventional testing. HPV DNA tests are recommended as adjunct tests and with new indications for use in cervical screening and management. Stronger recommendations were issued for STD clinics offering cervical screening services to have protocols in place for follow-up of test results and referral (eg, colposcopy). Conclusions. Important additions to the 2010 STD Treatment Guidelines include information on updated algorithms for screening and management of women and recommendations for use of liquid-based cytology and high-risk HPV testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cigarette smoking remains the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. Primary care offers an ideal setting to reach adults who smoke cigarettes and improve uptake of evidence-based cessation treatment. Although U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Guidelines recommend the 5As model (Ask, Advise, Assess, Assist, Arrange) in primary care, there are many barriers to its implementation. Automated, comprehensive, and proactive tools are needed to overcome barriers. Our team developed and preliminarily evaluated a proactive electronic visit (e-visit) delivered via the Electronic Health Record patient portal to facilitate evidence-based smoking cessation treatment uptake in primary care, with promising initial feasibility and efficacy. This paper describes the rationale, design, and protocol for an ongoing Hybrid Type I effectiveness-implementation trial that will simultaneously assess effectiveness of the e-visit intervention for smoking cessation as well as implementation potential across diverse primary care settings. Methods: The primary aim of this remote five-year study is to examine the effectiveness of the e-visit intervention vs. treatment as usual (TAU) for smoking cessation via a clinic-randomized clinical trial. Adults who smoke cigarettes are recruited across 18 primary care clinics. Clinics are stratified based on their number of primary care providers and randomized 2:1 to either e-visit or TAU. An initial baseline e-visit gathers information about patient smoking history and motivation to quit, and a clinical decision support algorithm determines the best evidence-based cessation treatment to prescribe. E-visit recommendations are evaluated by a patient's own provider, and a one-month follow-up e-visit assesses cessation progress. Main outcomes include: (1) cessation treatment utilization (medication, psychosocial cessation counseling), (2) reduction in cigarettes per day, and (3) biochemically verified 7-day point prevalence abstinence (PPA) at six-months. We hypothesize that patients randomized to the e-visit condition will have better cessation outcomes (vs. TAU). A secondary aim evaluates e-visit implementation potential at patient, provider, and organizational levels using a mixed-methods approach. Implementation outcomes include acceptability, adoption, fidelity, implementation cost, penetration, and sustainability. Discussion: This asynchronous, proactive e-visit intervention could provide substantial benefits for patients, providers, and primary care practices and has potential to widely improve reach of evidence-based cessation treatment. Trial registration: NCT05493254. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primary care physicians (PCPs) play an indispensable role in providing comprehensive care and referring patients for specialty care and other medical services. As the COVID-19 outbreak disrupts patient access to care, understanding the quality of primary care is critical at this unprecedented moment to support patients with complex medical needs in the primary care setting and inform policymakers to redesign our primary care system. The traditional way of collecting information from patient surveys is time-consuming and costly, and novel data collection and analysis methods are needed. In this review paper, we describe the existing algorithms and metrics that use the real-world data to qualify and quantify primary care, including the identification of an individual's likely PCP (identification of plurality provider and major provider), assessment of process quality (for example, appropriate-care-model composite measures), and continuity and regularity of care index (including the interval index, variance index and relative variance index), and highlight the strength and limitation of real world data from electronic health records (EHRs) and claims data in determining the quality of PCP care. The EHR audits facilitate assessing the quality of the workflow process and clinical appropriateness of primary care practices. With extensive and diverse records, administrative claims data can provide reliable information as it assesses primary care quality through coded information from different providers or networks. The use of EHRs and administrative claims data may be a cost-effective analytic strategy for evaluating the quality of primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper details an approach for accurately machine sorting Library of Congress (LC) call numbers which improves considerably upon other methods reviewed. The authors have employed this sorting method in creating an open-source software tool for library stacks maintenance, possibly the first such application capable of sorting the full range of LC call numbers. The method has potential application to any software environment that stores and retrieves LC call number information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policing in many parts of the world—the United States in particular—has embraced an archetypal model: a conception of the police based on the tenets of individuated archetypes, such as the heroic police "warrior" or "guardian." Such policing has in part motivated moves to (1) a reallocative model: reallocating societal resources such that the police are no longer needed in society (defunding and abolishing) because reform strategies cannot fix the way societal problems become manifest in (archetypal) policing; and (2) an algorithmic model: subsuming policing into technocratic judgements encoded in algorithms through strategies such as predictive policing (mitigating archetypal bias). This paper begins by considering the normative basis of the relationship between political community and policing. It then examines the justification of reallocative and algorithmic models in light of the relationship between political community and police. Given commitments to the depth and distribution of security—and proscriptions against dehumanizing strategies—the paper concludes that a nonideal-theory priority rule promoting respect for personhood (manifest in community and dignity-promoting policing strategies) is a necessary condition for the justification of the above models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The computer-assisted resuscitation algorithm (CARA) is the software component of an automatic infusion pump system being designed by US Army’s Walter Reed Institute of Research (WRAIR) to be used in the battlefields of tomorrow. Such medical devices are safety critical, and their use needs to be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) – a process on which formal methods can have a great impact. In this special section, six papers on the analysis of CARA’s requirements are presented. In the rest of this introduction, we present the framework and summary of results from those papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study demonstrates the application of an unsupervised topic modeling algorithm to 7,773 English-language articles published in the Library Quarterly from 1931 to 2015. The analysis of 85 years of the journal's output follows an exploratory data analysis framework to generate novel hypotheses about the history of LIS using topic modeling, a method for identifying clusters of co-occurring words within large collections of text. The paper closely examines two topics that suggest differences in gender representation in the journal to propose and support a new hypothesis regarding the historical inclusion of gendered objects of study in LIS literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Colon and rectal cancers are the most common kinds of cancer globally. Colon cancer is more prevalent in men than in women. Early detection increases the likelihood of survival, and treatment significantly increases the likelihood of eradicating the disease. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme is an excellent source of domestic cancer statistics. SEER includes nearly 30% of the United States population, covering various races and geographic locations. The data are made public via the SEER website when a SEER limited-use data agreement form is submitted and approved. We investigate data from the SEER programme, specifically colon cancer statistics, in this study. Our objective is to create reliable colon cancer survival and conditional survival prediction algorithms. In this study, we have presented an overview of cancer diagnosis methods and the treatments used to cure cancer. This paper presents an analysis of prediction performance of multiple deep learning approaches. The performance of multiple deep learning models is thoroughly examined to discover which algorithm surpasses the others, followed by an investigation of the network's prediction accuracy. The simulation outcomes indicate that automated prediction models can predict colon cancer patient survival. Deep autoencoders displayed the best performance outcomes attaining 97% accuracy and 95% area under curve-receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the summer of 2018, the upward-pointing Wyoming Cloud Lidar (WCL) was deployed on board the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA) research aircraft for the Biomass Burning Flux Measurements of Trace Gases and Aerosols (BB-FLUX) field campaign. This paper describes the generation of calibrated attenuated backscatter coefficients and aerosol extinction coefficients from the WCL measurements. The retrieved aerosol extinction coefficients at the flight level strongly correlate (correlation coefficient, rr > 0.8) with in situ aerosol concentration and carbon monoxide (CO) concentration, providing a first-order estimate for converting WCL extinction coefficients into vertically resolved CO and aerosol concentration within wildfire smoke plumes. The integrated CO column concentrations from the WCL data in nonextinguished profiles also correlate (rr = 0.7) with column measurements by the University of Colorado Airborne Solar Occultation Flux instrument, indicating the validity of WCL-derived extinction coefficients. During BB-FLUX, the UWKA sampled smoke plumes from more than 20 wildfires during 35 flights over the western United States. Seventy percent of flight time was spent below 3 km above ground level (AGL) altitude, although the UWKA ascended up to 6 km AGL to sample the top of some deep smoke plumes. The upward-pointing WCL observed a nearly equal amount of thin and dense smoke below 2 km and above 5 km due to the flight purpose of targeted fresh fire smoke. Between 2 and 5 km, where most of the wildfire smoke resided, the WCL observed slightly more thin smoke than dense smoke due to smoke spreading. Extinction coefficients in dense smoke were 2–10 times stronger, and dense smoke tended to have larger depolarization ratio, associated with irregular aerosol particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Free Speech Clause of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution restricts government regulation of private speech. However, it generally does not apply to private management of speech. New forms of speech regulation by online platforms disrupt this constitutional framework. Platforms, such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter, are responsible for mediating much of the public discourse and governing access to speech and speakers around the world. These private businesses match users and content in whatever way best benefits their commercial interests. At the same time, however, they exercise regulatory power when they filter, block, and remove content at the request of governmental agents or state actors. Consequently, platforms effectively blend law enforcement and adjudication powers, and sometimes even lawmaking powers. Courts and scholars who tackle speech regulation by platforms have basically relied on the well-settled constitutional divide between private functions and governmental ones. To the extent that platforms exercise governmental powers in allowing or banning speech or speakers, platforms should be subject, as the argument goes, to public law principles of accountability, legitimacy, oversight, and power separation. In this paper, we question this approach. As a practical matter, the public/private framework presumes that public functions of a private entity could be neatly separated from its standard business affairs. We argue that with the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) by platforms for content moderation, the public, law enforcement functions are integrated with the private, business functions that are driven by commercial interests. The same technical design which is used for targeted advertising and for curating personalized content is also deployed for monitoring and censoring online content. Using machine learning, the system is informed by the same labeling of users and content, and makes use of the same application programming interfaces (API), learning patterns, and software. Consequently, decisions on removal of speech, for (public) law enforcement purposes, are driven by the same data, algorithms, and optimization logic, which are also underlying all other functions performed by the platform. Therefore, the use of AI in content moderation calls for a fresh approach to restraining the power of platforms and securing fundamental freedoms in this environment. This paper takes a design perspective to speech regulation. It contends that the normative distinctions between public and private functions could be upheld in online content moderation, provided that these distinctions are embedded in the system design. It introduces "separation of functions," a novel approach to restraining the power of platforms while enhancing the accountability in AI-driven content moderation systems. We propose to facilitate independent tools embedding public policy. These tools would run on the platforms' data and would include their own optimization processes informed by public policy. Such separation between independent public tools and private data may enhance public scrutiny of law enforcement speech restrictions, which are a traditionally exclusive public function. This functional separation may also facilitate competition among different players who may enrich the design of speech regulation and mitigate biases. Finally, we explore the implications of this approach and discuss its possible limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects about 475,000 children in the United States annually. Studies from the 1990s showed worse mortality in pediatric TBI patients not transferred to a pediatric trauma center (PTC), but did not examine mild pediatric TBI. Evidence-based guidelines used to identify children with clinically insignificant TBI who do not require head CT were developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). However, which patients can be safely observed at a non-PTC is not directly addressed.Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted, focusing on management of pediatric TBI and transfer decisions from 1990 to 2020.Results: Pediatric TBI patients make up a great majority of preventable transfers and admissions, and comprise a significant portion of avoidable costs to the health care system. Majority of mild TBI patients admitted to a PTC following transfer do not require ICU care, surgical intervention, or additional imaging. Studies have shown that as high as 83% of mild pediatric TBI patients are discharged within 24 hrs.Conclusions: An evidence-based clinical practice algorithm was derived through synthesis of the data reviewed to guide transfer decision. The papers discussed in our systematic review largely concluded that transfer and admission was unnecessary and costly in pediatric patients with mild TBI who met the following criteria: blunt, no concern for NAT, low risk on PECARN assessment, or intermediate risk on PECARN with negative imaging or imaging with either isolated, nondisplaced skull fractures without ICH and/or EDH, or SDH <0.3 cm with no midline shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider the development of algorithms for the automatic detection of buried threats using ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements. GPR is one of the most studied and successful modalities for automatic buried threat detection (BTD), and a large variety of BTD algorithms have been proposed for it. Despite this, large-scale comparisons of GPR-based BTD algorithms are rare in the literature. In this paper, we report the results of a multi-institutional effort to develop advanced BTD algorithms for a real-world GPR BTD system. The effort involved five institutions with substantial experience with the development of GPR-based BTD algorithms. In this paper, we report the technical details of the advanced algorithms submitted by each institution, representing their latest technical advances, and many state-of-the-art GPR-based BTD algorithms. We also report the results of evaluating the algorithms from each institution on the large experimental data set used for development. The experimental data set comprised 120 000 m2 of GPR data using surface area, from 13 different lanes across two U.S. test sites. The data were collected using a vehicle-mounted GPR system, the variants of which have supplied data for numerous publications. Using these results, we identify the most successful and common processing strategies among the submitted algorithms, and make recommendations for GPR-based BTD algorithm design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algorithmic vision, the computational process of making meaning from digital images or visual information, has changed the relationship between the image and the human subject. In this paper, I explicate on the role of algorithmic vision as a technique of algorithmic governance, the organization of a population by algorithmic means. With its roots in the United States post-war cybernetic sciences, the ontological status of the computational image undergoes a shift, giving way to the hegemonic use of automated facial recognition technologies towards predatory policing and profiling practices. By way of example, I argue that algorithmic vision reconfigures the philosophical links between vision, image, and truth, paradigmatically changing the way a human subject is represented through imagistic data. With algorithmic vision, the relationship between subject and representation challenges the humanistic discourse around images, calling for a critical displacement of the human subject from the center of an analysis of how computational images make meaning. I will explore the relationship between the operative image, the image that acts but is not seen by human eyes, and what Louise Amoore calls an "emergent subject," a subject that is made visible through algorithmic techniques (2013). Algorithmic vision reveals subjects to power in a mode that requires a new approach towards analyzing the entanglement and invisiblization of the human in automated decision-making systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant wave height prediction for the following hours is a necessity for the planning and operation of wave energy devices. For a site-specific and short-term prediction, classical numerical wave forecasting methods may not be justified as exhaustive climatological data and huge computational power are needed. In this paper, a combination of a decomposition approach and long short-term memory network was presented to forecast the significant wave heights. An improved version of complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm and recurrence quantification analysis were applied to separate the original time series into deterministic and stochastic components. Each decomposed series was forecasted by the long short-term memory network and the final predicted significant wave heights were obtained by integrating the deterministic and stochastic predictions. Wave data measured at three buoy stations along the eastern coast of the United States were utilized to verify the hybrid model. The performance of the proposed method in three different wave height ranges was evaluated. The results suggested that the hybrid model outperformed the stand-alone long short-term memory network adjusted on the unseparated signal; in particular, for longer lead times and larger wave heights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the possibility of the implementation of Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm on a publicly available COVID-19 data set, in order to obtain mathematical models which could be used for estimation of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases and the estimation of epidemiology curve for specific countries, with a high number of cases, such as China, Italy, Spain, and USA and as well as on the global scale. The conducted investigation shows that the best mathematical models produced for estimating confirmed and deceased cases achieved R2 scores of 0.999, while the models developed for estimation of recovered cases achieved the R2 score of 0.998. The equations generated for confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases were combined in order to estimate the epidemiology curve of specific countries and on the global scale. The estimated epidemiology curve for each country obtained from these equations is almost identical to the real data contained within the data set [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in (or over) a first or second surge. Then, appropriate distances between normalized time series are used to further analyze the relationships between case trajectories on a month-by-month basis. Our algorithm shows that 31 states are experiencing second surges, while four of the 10 largest states are still in their first surge, with case counts that have never decreased. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least successful state responses to COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• FDD tools are increasingly adopted in commercial buildings. • Using FDD tools to correct hunting faults can mitigate issues cost-effectively. • We developed and implemented automated control hunting correction in FDD tools. • The algorithm was tested in nine VAV boxes and successfully eliminated hunting faults. • We discussed challenges and future research areas for scaling the technology up. Control hunting due to improper proportional–integral–derivative (PID) parameters in the building automation system (BAS) is one of the most common faults identified in commercial buildings. It can cause suboptimal performance and early failure of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Commercial fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) software represents one of the fastest growing market segments in smart building technologies in the United States. Implementation of PID retuning procedures as an auto-correction algorithm and integration into FDD software has the potential to mitigate control hunting across a heterogeneous portfolio of buildings with different BAS in a scalable way. This paper presents the development, implementation, and field testing of an automated control hunting fault correction algorithm based on lambda tuning open-loop rules. The algorithm was developed in a commercial FDD software and successfully tested among nine variable air volume boxes in an office building in the United States. The paper shows the feasibility of using FDD tools to automatically correct control hunting faults, discusses scalability considerations, and proposes a path forward for the HVAC industry and academia to further improve this technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topic of algorithmic fairness is of increasing importance to the Human–Computer Interaction research community following accumulating concerns regarding the use and deployment of Artificial Intelligence-based systems. How we conduct research on algorithmic fairness directly influences our inferences and conclusions regarding algorithmic fairness. To better understand the methodological decisions of studies focused on people's perceptions of algorithmic fairness, we systematic analysed relevant papers from the CHI and FAccT conferences. We identified 200 relevant papers published between 1993 and 2022 and assessed their study design, participant sample, and geographical location of participants and authors. Our results highlight that studies are predominantly cross-sectional, cover a wide range of participant roles, and that both authors and participants are primarily from the United States. Based on these findings, we reflect on the potential pitfalls and shortcomings in how the community studies algorithmic fairness. • Mapping of CHI and FAccT papers on algorithmic fairness published 1993–2022. • Over one-third of papers miss details on participant locality and compensation. • Algorithmic fairness research largely restricted to US and other Western countries. • Limited cross-country collaboration, most study samples from a single country. • Remote studies are most common, longitudinal studies are relatively rare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces for the first time the concept of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with multiple prior structures, for rainfall‐runoff modeling applications. The original BMA model proposed by Raftery et al. (2005, https://doi.org.10.1175/MWR2906.1) assumes that the prior probability density function (pdf) is adequately described by a mixture of Gamma and Gaussian distributions. Here we discuss the advantages of using BMA with fixed and flexible prior distributions. Uniform, Binomial, Binomial‐Beta, Benchmark, and Global Empirical Bayes priors along with Informative Prior Inclusion and Combined Prior Probabilities were applied to calibrate daily streamflow records of a coastal plain watershed in the southeast United States. Various specifications for Zellner's g prior including Hyper, Fixed, and Empirical Bayes Local (EBL) g priors were also employed to account for the sensitivity of BMA and derive the conditional pdf of each constituent ensemble member. These priors were examined using the simulation results of conceptual and semidistributed rainfall‐runoff models. The hydrologic simulations were first coupled with a new sensitivity analysis model and a parameter uncertainty algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with each model. BMA was then used to subsequently combine the simulations of the posterior pdf of each constituent hydrological model. Analysis suggests that a BMA based on combined fixed and flexible priors provides a coherent mechanism and promising results for calculating a weighted posterior probability compared to individual model calibration. Furthermore, the probability of Uniform and Informative Prior Inclusion priors received significantly lower predictive error, whereas more uncertainty resulted from a fixed g prior (i.e., EBL). Plain Language Summary: This study presents a two‐step procedure that includes model calibration of a range of hydrological models using DREAM (zs) algorithm, followed by ensemble prediction of streamflow using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with various prior structures. The hydrological modeling simulations were first coupled with a new sensitivity analysis model and a parameter uncertainty algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with each hydrologic model simulation. BMA was then used to subsequently combine the simulations on the most important parts of the posterior probabilities of each constituent hydrological model. Analysis suggests a BMA with fixed and flexible priors provides a coherent mechanism and promising results for calibrating a weighted posterior probability compared to individual model calibration. The hierarchy of prior distributions used in this study increased the flexibility of BMA fitting for daily streamflow simulation and reduced the dependence of posterior and predictive uncertainty (including model probabilities) on prior assumptions of hydrological modeling simulation. Key Points: Bayesian model averaging with fixed and flexible prior structures were applied to combine the posterior probability distribution of four hydrological modelsCustom prior inclusion and uniform prior induced a much sharper posterior medianPutting a prior on both θ and g makes the analysis naturally adaptive and avoids the information paradox [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives.To evaluate the positive predictive value of machine learning algorithms for early assessment of adverse birth risk among pregnant women as a means of improving the allocation of social services. Methods. We used administrative data for 6457 women collected by the Illinois Department of Human Services from July 2014 to May 2015 to develop a machine learning model for adverse birth prediction and improve upon the existing paper-based risk assessment. We compared different models and determined the strongest predictors of adverse birth outcomes using positive predictive value as the metric for selection. Results. Machine learning algorithms performed similarly, outperforming the current paper-based risk assessment by up to 36%; a refined paper-based assessment outperformed the current assessment by up to 22%. We estimate that these improvements will allow 100 to 170 additional high-risk pregnant women screened for program eligibility each year to receive services that would have otherwise been unobtainable. Conclusions. Our analysis exhibits the potential for machine learning to move government agencies toward a more data-informed approach to evaluating risk and providing social services. Overall, such efforts will improve the efficiency of allocating resource-intensive interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative methods vs. generative methods, and so on. In some of the more popular comparative methods, researchers compare observed epidemiological data from the early stages of an outbreak with the output of proposed models to forecast the future trend and prevalence of the pandemic. A significant problem in this area is the lack of standard well-defined evaluation measures to select the best algorithm among different ones, as well as for selecting the best possible configuration for a particular algorithm.Results: In this paper we present an evaluation framework which allows for combining different features, error measures, and ranking schema to evaluate forecasts. We describe the various epidemic features (Epi-features) included to characterize the output of forecasting methods and provide suitable error measures that could be used to evaluate the accuracy of the methods with respect to these Epi-features. We focus on long-term predictions rather than short-term forecasting and demonstrate the utility of the framework by evaluating six forecasting methods for predicting influenza in the United States. Our results demonstrate that different error measures lead to different rankings even for a single Epi-feature. Further, our experimental analyses show that no single method dominates the rest in predicting all Epi-features when evaluated across error measures. As an alternative, we provide various Consensus Ranking schema that summarize individual rankings, thus accounting for different error measures. Since each Epi-feature presents a different aspect of the epidemic, multiple methods need to be combined to provide a comprehensive forecast. Thus we call for a more nuanced approach while evaluating epidemic forecasts and we believe that a comprehensive evaluation framework, as presented in this paper, will add value to the computational epidemiology community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Owing to its recent advance, machine learning has spawned a large collection of solar forecasting works. In particular, machine learning is currently one of the most popular approaches for hourly solar forecasting. Nevertheless, there is evidently a myth on forecast accuracy—virtually all research papers claim superiority over others. Apparently, the "best" model can only be selected with hindsight, i.e., after empirical evaluation. For any new forecasting project, it is irrational for solar forecasters to bet on a single model from the start. In this article, the hourly forecasting performance of 68 machine learning algorithms is evaluated for 3 sky conditions, 7 locations, and 5 climate zones in the continental United States. To ensure a fair comparison, no hybrid model is considered, and only off-the-shelf implementations of these algorithms are used. Moreover, all models are trained using the automatic tuning algorithm available in the R caret package. It is found that tree-based methods consistently perform well in terms of two-year overall results, however, they rarely stand out during daily evaluation. Although no universal model can be found, some preferred ones for each sky and climate condition are advised. Highlights • Hourly solar forecasting is performed using 68 machine learning models. • Models are evaluated at 7 locations in 5 climate zones for 2 years. • Tree-based methods consistently perform well in terms of 2-year average metrics. • Daily best model cannot be identified, regime-switching approach is advised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetic retinopathy (DR), one of the major and long-term microvascular complications of diabetes, is the most common cause of vision loss and blindness in the working population of the world. Even with the management of diabetes, most patients will develop some forms of DR after approximately 20 years. However, DR is a treatable disease throughout the disease progression. To provide appropriate DR management, the USA and European countries have successfully implemented systematic early DR screening programs. At the same time, some computer-aided DR screening systems, which combine advanced DR detection algorithms and telemedicine technology, have also been developed for early-stage DR detection. Some of them have been tested in the DR screening programs. In this paper, we focus on a review of the major automatic DR screening systems which have performed large-scale evaluation rather than give an extensive review of all published DR grading algorithms. We first present the structures of the automatic systems and their supporting algorithms developed by the research groups, as well as the practices of the systems in their screening programs. We further present a more detailed review of the DR lesion detection algorithms in each system and reveal how the DR screening systems successfully practiced in clinical trials or large-scale screening programs. We also review recently new research areas as well as deep learning-based DR screening systems and compare them with the traditional lesion detection-based DR screening systems. The performances of the systems in the trials are summarized by considering the specificity and sensitivity with respect to the scale of testing datasets. At last, we will discuss future challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediation analysis allows the examination of effects of a third variable in the pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The general multiple mediation analysis method, proposed by Yu et al, improves traditional methods (eg, estimation of natural and controlled direct effects) to enable consideration of multiple mediators/confounders simultaneously and the use of linear and nonlinear predictive models for estimating mediation/confounding effects. In this paper, we extend the method for time-to-event outcomes and apply the method to explore the racial disparity in breast cancer survivals. Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death among women of all races. Despite improvement of survival rates of breast cancer in the US, a significant difference between white and black women remains. Previous studies have found that more advanced and aggressive tumors and less than optimal treatment may explain the lower survival rates for black women as compared to white women. Due to limitations of current analytic methods and the lack of comprehensive data sets, researchers have not been able to differentiate the relative effect each factor contributes to the overall racial disparity. We use the CDC-funded Patterns of Care study to examine the determinants of racial disparities in breast cancer survival using a novel multiple mediation analysis. Using the proposed method, we applied the Cox hazard model and multiple additive regression trees as predictive models and found that all racial disparity in survival among Louisiana breast cancer patients were explained by factors included in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Forteo Patient Registry (FPR) aims to estimate the incidence of osteosarcoma in US patients treated with teriparatide. Enrollment began in 2009 and will continue through 2019, with linkage planned through 2024. To date, no incident cases of osteosarcoma have been identified among patients registered in the FPR.Introduction: The Forteo Patient Registry (FPR) was established in 2009 to estimate the incidence of osteosarcoma in US patients treated with teriparatide. The objective of this paper is to describe study methods, challenges encountered, and progress to date.Methods: The FPR is a prospective US registry designed to link data from participants annually with state cancer registries. Patient enrollment is planned for 10 years (2009-2019) and annual linkage with US state cancer registries for 15 years (2010-2024). All US state cancer registries and DC were invited to participate. Patients are recruited using pre-enrollment materials included in teriparatide device packaging, kits, and brochures distributed by health-care providers; a toll-free number; and a study website. A linkage algorithm is used to match data from enrolled participants with cancer registry data.Results: For the eighth annual linkage in 2017, information necessary for linkage with 63,270 patients in the FPR was submitted to each of the 42 participating registries. These patients contributed approximately 242,782 person-years of follow-up. A total of 5268 adult osteosarcoma cases diagnosed since January 1, 2009, were available for linkage from participating state cancer registries. To date, no incident cases of osteosarcoma have been identified among patients registered in the FPR.Conclusions: Based on the estimated 242,782 person-years of observation as of the eighth annual linkage and projecting current enrollment rate to study end in 2024, it is anticipated that the completed study will be able to detect a fourfold increase in the risk of osteosarcoma if one exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Analyzing telemetry electrocardiogram (ECG) data over an extended period is often time-consuming because digital records are not widely available at hospitals. Investigating trends and patterns in the ECG data could lead to establishing predictors that would shorten response time to in-hospital cardiac arrest (I-HCA). This study was conducted to validate a novel method of digitizing paper ECG tracings from telemetry systems in order to facilitate the use of heart rate as a diagnostic feature prior to I-HCA. Methods: This multicenter study used telemetry to investigate full-disclosure ECG papers of 44 cardiovascular patients obtained within 1 hr of I-HCA with initial rhythms of pulseless electrical activity and asystole. Digital ECGs were available for seven of these patients. An algorithm to digitize the full-disclosure ECG papers was developed using the shortest path method. The heart rate was measured manually (averaging R-R intervals) for ECG papers and automatically for digitized and digital ECGs. Results: Significant correlations were found between manual and automated measurements of digitized ECGs (p < .001) and between digitized and digital ECGs (p < .001). Bland-Altman methods showed bias = .001 s, SD = .0276 s, lower and upper 95% limits of agreement for digitized and digital ECGs = .055 and -.053 s, and percentage error = 0.22%. Root mean square (rms), percentage rms difference, and signal to noise ratio values were in acceptable ranges. Conclusion: The digitization method was validated. Digitized ECG provides an efficient and accurate way of measuring heart rate over an extended period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Quality of life is included in the economic evaluation of health services by measuring the preference for health states, i.e. health state utilities. However, most intervention studies include a disease-specific, not a utility, instrument. Consequently, there has been increasing use of statistical mapping algorithms which permit utilities to be estimated from a disease-specific instrument. The present paper provides such algorithms between the MacNew Heart Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire (MacNew) instrument and six multi-attribute utility (MAU) instruments, the Euroqol (EQ-5D), the Short Form 6D (SF-6D), the Health Utilities Index (HUI) 3, the Quality of Wellbeing (QWB), the 15D (15 Dimension) and the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL-8D). Methods: Heart disease patients and members of the healthy public were recruited from six countries. Non-parametric rank tests were used to compare subgroup utilities and MacNew scores. Mapping algorithms were estimated using three separate statistical techniques. Results: Mapping algorithms achieved a high degree of precision. Based on the mean absolute error and the intra class correlation the preferred mapping is MacNew into SF-6D or 15D. Using the R squared statistic the preferred mapping is MacNew into AQoL-8D. Implications for research: The algorithms reported in this paper enable MacNew data to be mapped into utilities predicted from any of six instruments. This permits studies which have included the MacNew to be used in cost utility analyses which, in turn, allows the comparison of services with interventions across the health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a common cause of adverse drug events (ADEs). The electronic medical record (EMR) database and the FDA's adverse event reporting system (FAERS) database are the major data sources for mining and testing the ADE associated DDI signals. Most DDI data mining methods focus on pair-wise drug interactions, and methods to detect high-dimensional DDIs in medical databases are lacking. In this paper, we propose 2 novel mixture drug-count response models for detecting high-dimensional drug combinations that induce myopathy. The "count" indicates the number of drugs in a combination. One model is called fixed probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (FMDRM-MRT). The other model is called count-dependent probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (CMDRM-MRT), in which the mixture probability is count dependent. Compared with the previous mixture drug-count response model (MDRM) developed by our group, these 2 new models show a better likelihood in detecting high-dimensional drug combinatory effects on myopathy. CMDRM-MRT identified and validated (54; 374; 637; 442; 131) 2-way to 6-way drug interactions, respectively, which induce myopathy in both EMR and FAERS databases. We further demonstrate FAERS data capture much higher maximum myopathy risk than EMR data do. The consistency of 2 mixture models' parameters and local false discovery rate estimates are evaluated through statistical simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: About 30 million individuals in the United States are living with a rare disease, which by definition have a prevalence of 200,000 or fewer cases in the United States ([National Organization for Rare Disorders], [About NORD], [2016]). Disease heterogeneity and geographic dispersion add to the difficulty of completing robust studies in small populations. Improving the ability to conduct research on rare diseases would have a significant impact on population health. The purpose of this paper is to raise awareness of methodological approaches that can address the challenges to conducting robust research on rare diseases.Approach: We conducted a landscape review of available methodological and analytic approaches to address the challenges of rare disease research. Our objectives were to: 1. identify algorithms for matching study design to rare disease attributes and the methodological approaches applicable to these algorithms; 2. draw inferences on how research communities and infrastructure can contribute to the efficiency of research on rare diseases; and 3. to describe methodological approaches in the rare disease portfolio of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), a funder promoting both rare disease research and research infrastructure.Results: We identified three algorithms for matching study design to rare disease or intervention characteristics (Gagne, et.al, BMJ 349:g6802, 2014); (Gupta, et.al, J Clin Epidemiol 64:1085-1094, 2011); (Cornu, et. al, Orphet J Rare Dis 8:48,2012) and summarized the applicable methodological and analytic approaches. From this literature we were also able to draw inferences on how an effective research infrastructure can set an agenda, prioritize studies, accelerate accrual, catalyze patient engagement and terminate poorly performing studies. Of the 24 rare disease projects in the PCORI portfolio, 11 are randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using standard designs. Thirteen are observational studies using case-control, prospective cohort, or natural history designs. PCORI has supported the development of 9 Patient-Powered Research Networks (PPRNs) focused on rare diseases.Conclusion: Matching research design to attributes of rare diseases and interventions can facilitate the completion of RCTs that are adequately powered. An effective research infrastructure can improve efficiency and avoid waste in rare disease research. Our review of the PCORI research portfolio demonstrates that it is feasible to conduct RCTs in rare disease. However, most of these studies are using standard RCT designs. This suggests that use of a broader array of methodological approaches to RCTs --such as adaptive trials, cross-over trials, and early escape designs can improve the productivity of robust research in rare diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare beneficiaries are eligible for health insurance through the public option of traditional Medicare (TM) or may join a private Medicare Advantage (MA) plan. Both are highly subsidized but in different ways. Medicare pays for most of costs directly in TM, and subsidizes MA plans based on a "benchmark" for each beneficiary choosing a private plan. The level of this benchmark is arguably the most important policy decision Medicare makes about the MA program. Many analysts recommend equalizing Medicare's subsidy across the options - referred to in policy circles as a "level playing field." This paper studies the normative question of how to set the level of the benchmark, applying the versatile model developed by Einav and Finkelstein (EF) to Medicare. The EF framework implies unequal subsidies to counteract risk selection across plan types. We also study other reasons to tilt the field: the relative efficiency of MA vs. TM, market power of MA plans, and institutional features of the way Medicare determines subsidies and premiums. After review of the empirical and policy literature, we conclude that in areas where the MA market is competitive, the benchmark should be set below average costs in TM, but in areas characterized by imperfect competition in MA, it should be raised in order to offset output (enrollment) restrictions by plans with market power. We also recommend specific modifications of Medicare rules to make demand for MA more price elastic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The social functions of urbanized areas are highly dependent on and supported by the convenient access to public transportation systems, particularly for the less privileged populations who have restrained auto ownership. To accurately evaluate the public transit accessibility, it is critical to capture the spatiotemporal variation of transit services. This can be achieved by measuring the shortest paths or minimum travel time between origin-destination (OD) pairs at each time-of-day (e.g. every minute). In recent years, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data has been gaining popularity for between-station travel time estimation due to its interoperability in spatiotemporal analytics. Many software packages, such as ArcGIS, have developed toolbox to enable the travel time estimation with GTFS. They perform reasonably well in calculating travel time between OD pairs for a specific time-of-day (e.g. 8:00 AM), yet can become computational inefficient and unpractical with the increase of data dimensions (e.g. all times-of-day and large network). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm that is computationally elegant and mathematically efficient to address this issue. An open-source toolbox written in C++ is developed to implement the algorithm. We implemented the algorithm on City of St. George’s transit network to showcase the accessibility analysis enabled by the toolbox. The experimental evidence shows significant reduction on computational time. The proposed algorithm and toolbox presented is easily transferable to other transit networks to allow transit agencies and researchers perform high resolution transit performance analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tier 1 exposure tools recommended for use under REACH are designed to easily identify situations that may pose a risk to health through conservative exposure predictions. However, no comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the lower tier tools has previously been carried out. The ETEAM project aimed to evaluate several lower tier exposure tools (ECETOC TRA, MEASE, and EMKG-EXPO-TOOL) as well as one higher tier tool (STOFFENMANAGER®). This paper describes the results of the external validation of tool estimates using measurement data. Methods: Measurement data were collected from a range of providers, both in Europe and United States, together with contextual information. Individual measurement and aggregated measurement data were obtained. The contextual information was coded into the tools to obtain exposure estimates. Results were expressed as percentage of measurements exceeding the tool estimates and presented by exposure category (non-volatile liquid, volatile liquid, metal abrasion, metal processing, and powder handling). We also explored tool performance for different process activities as well as different scenario conditions and exposure levels. Results: In total, results from nearly 4000 measurements were obtained, with the majority for the use of volatile liquids and powder handling. The comparisons of measurement results with tool estimates suggest that the tools are generally conservative. However, the tools were more conservative when estimating exposure from powder handling compared to volatile liquids and other exposure categories. In addition, results suggested that tool performance varies between process activities and scenario conditions. For example, tools were less conservative when estimating exposure during activities involving tabletting, compression, extrusion, pelletisation, granulation (common process activity PROC14) and transfer of substance or mixture (charging and discharging) at nondedicated facilities (PROC8a; powder handling only). With the exception of STOFFENMANAGER® (for estimating exposure during powder handling), the tools were less conservative for scenarios with lower estimated exposure levels. Conclusions: This is the most comprehensive evaluation of the performance of REACH exposure tools carried out to date. The results show that, although generally conservative, the tools may not always achieve the performance specified in the REACH guidance, i.e. using the 75th or 90th percentile of the exposure distribution for the risk characterisation. Ongoing development, adjustment, and recalibration of the tools with new measurement data are essential to ensure adequate characterisation and control of worker exposure to hazardous substances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraints arise naturally in many scientific experiments/studies such as in, epidemiology, biology, toxicology, etc. and often researchers ignore such information when analyzing their data and use standard methods such as the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Such methods may not only result in a loss of power and efficiency in costs of experimentation but also may result poor interpretation of the data. In this paper we discuss constrained statistical inference in the context of linear mixed effects models that arise naturally in many applications, such as in repeated measurements designs, familial studies and others. We introduce a novel methodology that is broadly applicable for a variety of constraints on the parameters. Since in many applications sample sizes are small and/or the data are not necessarily normally distributed and furthermore error variances need not be homoscedastic (i.e. heterogeneity in the data) we use an empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) type residual based bootstrap methodology for deriving critical values of the proposed test. Our simulation studies suggest that the proposed procedure maintains the desired nominal Type I error while competing well with other tests in terms of power. We illustrate the proposed methodology by re-analyzing a clinical trial data on blood mercury level. The methodology introduced in this paper can be easily extended to other settings such as nonlinear and generalized regression models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This paper aims to analyze the relationship among measures of resource and service usage and other features of academic libraries in the USA and Canada. Design/methodology/approach – Through the use of a self-organizing map, academic library data were clustered and visualized. Analysis of the library data was conducted through the computation of a "library performance metric" that was applied to the resulting map. Findings – Two areas of high-performing academic libraries emerged on the map. One area included libraries with large numbers of resources, while another area included libraries that had low resources but gave greater numbers of presentations to groups, offered greater numbers of public service hours, and had greater numbers of staffed service points. Research limitations/implications – The metrics chosen as a measure of library performance offer only a partial picture of how libraries are being used. Future research might involve the use of a self-organizing map to cluster library data within certain parameters and the identification of high-performing libraries within these clusters. Practical implications – This study suggests that libraries can improve their performance not only by acquiring greater resources but also by putting greater emphasis on the services that they provide to their users. Originality/value – This paper demonstrates how a self-organizing map can be used in the analysis of large data sets to facilitate library comparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, the US Census Bureau posed a challenge under the America COMPETES Act, an act designed to improve the competitiveness of the United States by investing in innovation through research and development. The Census Bureau contracted Kaggle.com to host and manage a worldwide competition to develop the best statistical model to predict 2010 Census mail return rates. The Census Bureau provided competitors with a block group-level database consisting of housing, demographic, and socioeconomic variables derived from the 2010 Census, five-year American Community Survey estimates, and 2010 Census operational data. The Census Bureau then challenged teams to use these data (and other publicly available data) to construct the models. One goal of the challenge was to leverage winning models as inputs to a new model-based hard-to-count (HTC) score, a metric to stratify and target geographic areas according to propensity to self-respond in sample surveys and censuses. All contest winners employed data-mining and machine-learning techniques to predict mail-return rates. This made the models relatively hard to interpret (when compared with the Census Bureau’s original HTC score) and impossible to directly translate to a new HTC score. Nonetheless, the winning models contained insights toward building a new model-based score using variables from the database. This paper describes the original algorithm-based HTC score, insights gained from the Census Return Rate Challenge, and the model underlying a new HTC score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of a class of structural vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (VARFIMA) models. The structural VARFIMA model includes the fractional cointegration model as one of its special cases. We show that the conditional likelihood Durbin–Levinson (CLDL) algorithm of Tsay (2010a) is a fast and reliable approach to estimate the long-run effects as well as the short- and long-term dynamics of a structural VARFIMA process simultaneously. In particular, the computational cost of the CLDL algorithm is much lower than that proposed in Sowell (1989) and Dueker and Startz (1998). We apply the CLDL method to the Congressional approval data of Durr et al. (1997) and find that the long-run effect of economic expectations on Congressional approval is at least 0.5718, which is over twice the estimate of 0.24 found in Table 2 of Box-Steffensmeier and Tomlinson (2000). This paper also tests the divided party government hypothesis with the CLDL algorithm. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the theoretical relationship between the layout of four-sensor dynamic acoustic array tracking system and systematic observation accuracy, and provide an algorithm to determine the optimal arrangement of four-sensor acoustic array and an indicator to evaluate acoustic array system measurement accuracy. Design/methodology/approach – In the present paper, the measurement principle of the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array tracking system is analyzed, and the system observation model and the conversion relationship between models are established. Subsequently, the optimization algorithm for the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array is deduced, the theoretical optimal arrangement of the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array tracking measurement system is obtained based on the optimal position dilution of precision function (PDOPF) of 2D target, and the static experimental study on sound-source bearing estimation is designed. The theoretical results are compared with the experimental results of the present study. Findings – The measurement accuracy of the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array tracking system is largely dependent on the layout of the acoustic sensor. Theoretical studies and experimental results demonstrated that an optimal PDPOF can be used to analyze the rationality of the layout. It can also serve as an indicator for the layout of the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array tracking system. Originality/value – The PDOPF value is presented as an indicator for the evaluation of the four-sensor dynamic acoustic array systematic observation accuracy based on theoretical analysis. The feasibility of the indicator and the rationality of the sensor layout in practical engineering application are verified through experimental studies on sound-source bearing estimation. The higher the PDOPF value is, the lower the accuracy of the system will be. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past two decades have witnessed an increase in ethnicity-related peer aggression, driven by the intensification of the migration phenomenon and rise of information and communication technologies. The goal of the current study is to extend the scope of previous reviews on peer aggression to examine the emerging evidence on the role of technological tools in the prevention, detection, and handling of ethnicity-related peer aggression among young people. We have identified 14 relevant papers published between 2005 and 2020 that help us answer the following research questions: What forms of aggression among young ethnic minorities do these technological interventions try to address? What types of technological interventions are being used? The results indicate that the technological tools are being used to tackle both intergroup as well as intragroup peer aggression, in which ethnic minorities youth is involved (as a victim, perpetrator or bystander). Most studies have focused on adolescents and young adults in the US or in Europe. The technological tools reported on, include: online games, videos, social media, and chat-based programmes, or machine learning algorithms aimed at tackling online and offline peer aggression. They can be used either as stand - alone tools, or as part of intervention programmes (at the school, family or community level). These findings can be useful to improve and elaborate future digital technologies developed to address ethnicity-related peer aggression. • The review maps the existing literature on the role of technological tools in tackling ethnicity-related peer aggression. • All forms of peer aggression are considered in which ethnic minorities youth was involved. • Three groups of technological interventions are identified and categorized into intra- or intergroup ethnicity-related peer aggression. • The digital tools presented include: online games, video, social media, chat-based programmes, and machine learning algorithms. • Our study reveals some follow-up research questions needed to expand current knowledge on digital technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The estimation of the recurrence rate and the distribution in severity of extreme ice events, which is required in order to determine design criteria for structures such as electric transmission lines, suffers from the fact that there appears to be a great variability in freezing rain events, in terms of duration, quantity of precipitation, and wind speed. Rauber et al. (2001), developed 7 archetypical patterns for freezing rain storms that indeed articulated differences in duration, spatial extent and intensity of storms. This finding suggests that it would not be correct to consider all freezing rain storms as a single homogeneous statistical population, which is the current practice in the extreme value analysis of ice storms. This paper presents an automated and objective methodology for classifying freezing rain storms that can be used in a de-aggregated extreme value analysis. This paper presents the theory, methodology, and results for clustering freezing rain storms. The procedure is tested using a base data set of previously classified storms: the storms identified and classified by Rauber et al. (2001) that occurred over North Eastern United States. The storms are described by making average anomaly maps based on sea level pressure (SLP), and 1000–500hPa geopotential heights using NCEP reanalysis data. Synoptic categories are then formed using clustering algorithms and principal component analysis. The k-means clustering algorithm is compared with a number of hierarchical algorithms. The resulting clusters using the k-means algorithm are compared amongst themselves as well as with the archetypical patterns of Rauber et al. For each event, statistics on wind speeds and precipitation are calculated using NCEP reanalysis data and NCEP hourly precipitation data respectively to verify the significance of the clusters. The three cluster solutions based on 1000–500hPa anomaly maps using the typing method developed here are found to be suitable for grouping storms in homogeneous populations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]