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The accurate prediction of heavy precipitation in convective environments is crucial because such events, often occurring in Italy during the summer and fall seasons, can be a threat for people and properties. In this paper, we analyse the impact of satellite-derived surface-rainfall-rate data assimilation on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's precipitation prediction, considering 15 days in summer 2022 and 17 days in fall 2022, where moderate to intense precipitation was observed over Italy. A 3DVar realised at CNR-ISAC (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate) is used to assimilate two different satellite-derived rain rate products, both exploiting geostationary (GEO), infrared (IR), and low-Earth-orbit (LEO) microwave (MW) measurements: One is based on an artificial neural network (NN), and the other one is the operational P-IN-SEVIRI-PMW product (H60), delivered in near-real time by the EUMETSAT HSAF (Satellite Application Facility in Support of Operational Hydrology and Water Management). The forecast is verified in two periods: the hours from 1 to 4 (1–4 h phase) and the hours from 3 to 6 (3–6 h phase) after the assimilation. The results show that the rain rate assimilation improves the precipitation forecast in both seasons and for both forecast phases, even if the improvement in the 3–6 h phase is found mainly in summer. The assimilation of H60 produces a high number of false alarms, which has a negative impact on the forecast, especially for intense events (30 mm/3 h). The assimilation of the NN rain rate gives more balanced predictions, improving the control forecast without significantly increasing false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precision Agriculture (PA) has revolutionized crop management by leveraging information technology, satellite positioning data, and remote sensing. One crucial component in PA applications is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which offers valuable insights into crop vigor and health. However, discontinuity of optical satellite acquisitions related to cloud cover and the huge load of the required processing time pose challenges to real-time applications. NDVI prediction emerges as an innovative solution to address these limitations. It allows for proactive decision-making by providing accurate estimates, enabling farmers and land managers to plan essential agronomic activities such as irrigation, fertilization, and pest control, based on anticipated future conditions. This study introduces an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model incorporating NDVI, Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), temperatures, and precipitation as predictive variables. The model employs a novel time series slicing algorithm, Boosting Adaptive Time Series Slicer (BATS), to enhance the input training dataset's variability, presenting the model with a broader range of examples. A 2-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting model was developed to predict future NDVI values over short and medium-term horizons. The study area used to train, test and validate the ANN corresponds to a diverse landscape of cultivated corn fields located in Piemonte (NW-Italy). Results showed that NDVI future estimates were accurate; considering three time horizons for predictions (5, 10, and 15 days) RMSE values resulted to be 0.028, 0.038 and 0.050, respectively. Additionally, ablation tests proved that the most important variable for enhancing the model's accuracy is the NDWI, and the most useful timesteps are the four most recent ones. To preliminary investigate the capability of the ANN to operate over a wider and different area it was applied over the entire Europe, using the LUCAS dataset as reference map to locate corn fields. Results show RMSE of 0.062, 0.083 and 0.105 for the 5, 10 and 15 days forecasting horizons, respectively. The methodology proposed in this paper can be a possible alternative to more ordinary approaches for NDVI forecasting that nowadays appears to be a fundamental step for a proactive precision agriculture where crop management can be significantly improved. Future developments should explore the use of sequence-to-sequence ANNs to predict the development of multiple spectral indices over multiple crop types simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel approach to estimating short-term production of wind farms, which are made up of numerous turbine generators. It harnesses the power of big data through a blend of data-driven and model-based methods. Specifically, it combines an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for immediate future predictions of wind turbine power output with a stochastic model for dependability, using Hybrid Reliability Block Diagrams. A thorough state-of-the-art review has been conducted in order to demonstrate the applicability of an ANN for non-linear stochastic problems of energy or power forecast estimation. The study leverages an innovative cluster analysis to group wind turbines and reduce the computational effort of the ANN, with a dependability model that improves the accuracy of the data-driven output estimation. Therefore, the main novelty is the employment of a hybrid model that combines an ANN with a dependability stochastic model that accounts for the realistic operational scenarios of wind turbines, including their susceptibility to random shutdowns This approach marks a significant advancement in the field, introducing a methodology which can aid the design and the power production forecast. The research has been applied to a case study of a 24 MW wind farm located in the south of Italy, characterized by 28 turbines. The findings demonstrate that the integrated model significantly enhances short-term wind-energy production estimation, achieving a 480% improvement in accuracy over the solo-clustering approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]