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Discusses the findings of Stanford economist Michael J. Boskin, who released a paper suggesting that the federal government had $12 trillion coming that no one had counted. Implications of the finding; Boskin's admission that his equations contained an error; Background on Boskin, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under U.S. President George Bush; How several economists found flaws in Boskin's forecast of a tax windfall; Boskin's defense of his main point.

WASHINGTON -- Given high unemployment and low inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait until 2012 before it starts to raise interest rates, a new Fed research paper states. The paper, released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, does not represent the official position of the central bank, whose governors have declined to specify when they might begin to raise rates. The benchmark short-term interest rate, known as the federal funds rate, has been essentially zero since December 2008, and most economists estimate that the Fed will increase it earlier than 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The two economists call their paper ''Mental Retirement,'' and their argument has intrigued behavioral researchers. Data from the United States, England and 11 other European countries suggest that the earlier people retire, the more quickly their memories decline. The implication, the economists and others say, is that there really seems to be something to the ''use it or lose it'' notion -- if people want to preserve their memories and reasoning abilities, they may have to keep active. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]