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This book focuses on the modelling of contemporary health and social problems, especially those considered a major burden to communities, governments and taxpayers, such as smoking, alcoholism, drug use, and heart disease. Based on a series of papers presented at a recent conference hosted by the Leverhulme-funded Tipping Points project at the University of Durham, this book illustrates a broad range of modelling approaches. Such a diverse collection demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to modelling tipping points in health and social problems, and the assessment of associated risk and resilience.

Bayesian methods combine information available from data with any prior information available from expert knowledge. The Bayes linear approach follows this path, offering a quantitative structure for expressing beliefs, and systematic methods for adjusting these beliefs, given observational data. The methodology differs from the full Bayesian methodology in that it establishes simpler approaches to belief specification and analysis based around expectation judgements. Bayes Linear Statistics presents an authoritative account of this approach, explaining the foundations, theory, methodology, and practicalities of this important field. The text provides a thorough coverage of Bayes linear analysis, from the development of the basic language to the collection of algebraic results needed for efficient implementation, with detailed practical examples. The book covers: The importance of partial prior specifications for complex problems where it is difficult to supply a meaningful full prior probability specification. Simple ways to use partial prior specifications to adjust beliefs, given observations. Interpretative and diagnostic tools to display the implications of collections of belief statements, and to make stringent comparisons between expected and actual observations. General approaches to statistical modelling based upon partial exchangeability judgements. Bayes linear graphical models to represent and display partial belief specifications, organize computations, and display the results of analyses. Bayes Linear Statistics is essential reading for all statisticians concerned with the theory and practice of Bayesian methods. There is an accompanying website hosting free software and guides to the calculations within the book.

In November of 1998 The Journal of the American Medical Association devoted an entire issue to alternative medicine for the first time in its publishing history. According to survey results reported in the journal, 83 million Americans used some form of alternative medicine to preserve and maintain their health in 1997, a sharp increase from the 61 million who turned to alternative forms of care in 1990. Michael S. Goldstein's Alternative Health Care is the first comprehensive account of the growing presence of alternative medicine in American society. Beginning with the basic premises of alternative medicine, Goldstein's book examines the clinical, economic, and political realities of the broad range of alternative care options and practices in the United States and explains why alternative medicine has become a viable choice for so many people who are ill or who seek to remain healthy. Bringing history, policy, practice, personal experience, and in-depth sociological analysis together into one comprehensive volume, Goldstein -- one of the first recipients of funding from the National Institute of Health for research on alternative medicine -- also studies the complexities of the relationship between spirituality and alternative medicine and the changing role of alternative medicine in the larger context of American health care. Probing such issues as the corporatization of medicine, the role of alternative medicine in health care, and the dynamic relationship between conventional and alternative treatments, Goldstein's Alternative Health Care is more than the long-awaited introduction to the many forms of alternative medicine. It is also the measure of the implications of such care for practitioners, businesses, policymakers, and patients alike. Alternative Health Care is the definitive guide for the millions of Americans interested in alternative medicine and treatment, American health care, the sociology of medicine, and American social issues.