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After the new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in the end of January 2020 in Germany, a large number of individuals suffered from severe symptoms and eventually needed intensive care in hospitals. Due to the rapid spread of the disease, the number of deceased individuals increased as well, which is a motivation to prevent as many new infections as possible. Therefore, the knowledge about the current evolution of the virus spread is crucial to predict its future behavior and to react with suitable interventions. In this paper, the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany is forecasted by a network-based inference method, in which the interactions of individuals are taken into account using a contact matrix. Then the results are compared to the predictions without considering a contact matrix as well as to the logistic regression, which shows the advantage of incorporating the contact matrix. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number of the pandemic in Germany using a neural network approach is estimated and used for further predictions of the evolution of COVID-19 in Germany. In order to mathematically model the different compartments of the population in the considered regions, the classical SIR model is employed. In this work, we deploy the LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) for the unknown parameter estimation. Furthermore, we calculate and illustrate the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of the estimations to show the accuracy of the predictions. The results include model parameter estimation and model validation, as well as the outbreak forecasting using network-informed algorithms. Our findings show that the network-inference based approach outperforms the logistic regression as well as the neural network approach and the SIR model calibration without a contact network. Furthermore according to the results, the network-inference based approach is particularly suitable for short- to mid-term predictions, even when there is not much information about the new disease. Moreover, the predictions based on the estimation of the reproduction number in Germany can yield more reliable results with increasing the availability of data, but could not outperform the network-inference based algorithm. • The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and Bavaria state is forecasted. • The approach takes into account the interactions of individuals via a contact matrix. • The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the estimation is calculated. • The prediction results are compared with the true data, NNs and logistic regression. • The predictions outperform the results of estimations without contact matrix. • The network-based approach is suitable for short- to mid-term predictions. • The predictions are informative for decision-makers to set protective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is a lung disease, and there is medical evidence that air pollution is one of the external causes of lung diseases. Fine particulate matter is one of the air pollutants that damages pulmonary tissue. The combination of the coronavirus and fine particulate matter air pollution may exacerbate the coronavirus' effect on human health. This paper considers whether the long-term concentration of fine particulate matter of different sizes changes the number of detected coronavirus infections and the number of COVID-19 fatalities in Germany. Data from 400 German counties for fine particulate air pollution from 2002 to 2020 are used to measure the long-term impact of air pollution. Kriging interpolation is applied to complement data gaps. With an ecological study, the correlation between average particulate matter air pollution and COVID-19 cases, as well as fatalities, are estimated with OLS regressions. Thereby, socioeconomic and demographic covariates are included. An increase in the average long-term air pollution of 1 μg/m3 particulate matter PM 2.5 is correlated with 199.46 (SD = 29.66) more COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Germany. For PM 10 the respective increase is 52.38 (SD = 12.99) more cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The number of COVID-19 deaths were also positively correlated with PM 2.5 and PM 10 (6.18, SD = 1.44, respectively 2.11, SD = 0.71, additional COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Long-term fine particulate air pollution is suspected as causing higher numbers of COVID-19 cases. Higher long-term air pollution may even increase COVID-19 death rates. We find that the results of the correlation analysis without controls are retained in a regression analysis with controls for relevant confounding factors. Nevertheless, additional epidemiological investigations are required to test the causality of particulate matter air pollution for COVID-19 cases and the severity. • COVID-19 infections are substantially positively correlated with long-term particulate matter concentration in German counties. • The correlation is robust to the inclusion of relevant control variables in multiple OLS regressions. • COVID-19 fatalities are also positively correlated with long-term particulate matter concentration. • The correlation between particulate matter concentration and COVID-19 fatalities was not robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]