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This paper describes a cloud type radiance record derived from NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellites using cloud properties retrieved from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and spectral brightness temperatures ( T b) observed by the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS). The authors seek to produce a seamless, global-scale, long-term record of cloud type and T b statistics intended to better characterize clouds from seasonal to decadal time scales. Herein, the methodology is described in which the cloud type statistics retrieved from AVHRR are interpolated onto each HIRS footprint using two cloud classification methods. This approach is tested over the northeast tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean region, which contains a wide variety of cloud types during a significant ENSO variation from 2008 to 2009. It is shown that the T b histograms sorted by cloud type are realistic for all HIRS channels. The magnitude of T b biases among spatially coincident satellite intersections over the northeast Pacific is a function of cloud type and wavelength. While the sign of the bias can change, the magnitudes are generally small for NOAA-18 and NOAA-19, and NOAA-19 and MetOp-A intersections. The authors further show that the differences between calculated standard deviations of cloud-typed T b well exceed intersatellite calibration uncertainties. The authors argue that consideration of higher-order statistical moments determined from spectral infrared observations may serve as a useful long-term measure of small-scale spatial changes, in particular cloud types over the HIRS-AVHRR observing record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it is critical to assess the accuracy of attribution studies, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) cannot be directly assessed from observations since it involves the probability of an event in a world that did not happen, the 'natural' world where there was no human influence on climate. Instead, reliability diagrams (usually used to compare probabilistic forecasts to the observed frequencies of events) have been used to assess climate simulations employed for attribution and by inference to evaluate the attribution study itself. The Brier score summarizes this assessment of a model by the reliability diagram. By constructing a modeling framework where the true FAR is already known, this paper shows that Brier scores are correlated to the accuracy of a climate model ensemble's calculation of FAR, although only weakly. This weakness exists because the diagram does not account for accuracy of simulations of the natural world. This is better represented by two reliability diagrams from early and late in the period of study, which would have, respectively, less and greater anthropogenic climate forcing. Two new methods are therefore proposed for assessing the accuracy of FAR, based on using the earlier observational period as a proxy for observations of the natural world. It is found that errors from model-based estimates of these observable quantities are strongly correlated with errors in the FAR estimated in the model framework. These methods thereby provide new observational estimates of the accuracy in FAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using daily rain gauge records for Madagascar and nearby islands, this paper investigates rainfall intraseasonal variability at local and regional scales during the austral summer season (November-February), as well as the respective influences of recurrent convective regimes over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The results show a general consistency between local-scale rainfall variability in Madagascar and regional-scale features of climate variability. The influence of tropical temperate troughs in their mature phase and/or their easternmost locations is first underlined. The development of such systems over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel can be considered as precursors for Malagasy wet spells, especially over the southern part of the island. Regional and local effects of the MJO are weaker on average, and only concern the northwest of the island and the north of the Mozambique Channel. MJO and convective regimes are finally shown to explain distinct fractions of regional rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are, however, nonlocal processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, which can impact the stable isotope signal, thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. In this paper, the importance of these nonlocal processes are investigated through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell (62°N, 144°W; 4300 m MSL) in south-central Alaska. During this event there was, over a 1-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur in the region between summer and winter. As shall be shown, this arose from a change in the source region, from the subtropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia, for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trends in the southern annular mode (SAM) and the strength, position, and width of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind jet in observations, reanalyses, and models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). First the period over 1951-2011 is considered, and it is shown that there are differences in the SAM and jet trends between the CMIP5 models, the Hadley Centre gridded SLP (HadSLP2r) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. The relationships between these trends demonstrate that the SAM index cannot be used to directly infer changes in any one kinematic property of the jet. The spatial structure of the observed trends in SLP and zonal winds is shown to be largest, but also most uncertain, in the southeastern Pacific. To constrain this uncertainty six reanalyses are included and compared with station-based observations of SLP. The CMIP5 mean SLP trends generally agree well with the direct observations, despite some climatological biases, while some reanalyses exhibit spuriously large SLP trends. Similarly, over the more reliable satellite era the spatial pattern of CMIP5 SLP trends is in excellent agreement with HadSLP2r, whereas several reanalyses are not. Then surface winds are compared with a satellite-based product, and it is shown that the CMIP5 mean trend is similar to observations in the core region of the westerlies, but that several reanalyses overestimate recent trends. The authors caution that studies examining the impact of wind changes on the Southern Ocean could be biased by these spuriously large trends in reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Kajikawa and Wang detected the interdecadal shift of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset with a late SCSSM onset in an earlier epoch (1979-93) and an early SCSSM onset in a later epoch (1994-2008) and attributed this change to enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intraseasonal variability (ISV) related to 30-80-day and 10-25-day anomalies in the second epoch. This comment assesses the individual impact of TCs and ISV on the interdecadal change of the SCSSM onset by means of the removal of anomalies associated with TCs and ISV. Results herein show that TCs have no significant impact on the SCSSM onset in all years, except 2006 in which a strong and long-lived TC occurred over the South China Sea. After removing the 30-80-day anomaly, the difference in the mean SCSSM onset date in the two epochs decreases to some extent, implying that the 30-80-day anomaly can, in part, play a role in the interdecadal shift of the SCSSM onset. In contrast, the 10-25-day anomaly has an insignificant contribution to the interdecadal shift of the SCSSM onset. The discrepancy of ISV contribution results from the SCSSM background state, the magnitude and spatiotemporal scale of ISV, and the phase relationship between ISV and SCSSM transition from easterly to westerly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]