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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has developed into a pandemic. Data-driven techniques can be used to inform and guide public health decision- and policy-makers. In generalizing the spread of a virus over a large area, such as a province, it must be assumed that the transmission occurs as a stochastic process. It is therefore very difficult for policy and decision makers to understand and visualize the location specific dynamics of the virus on a more granular level. A primary concern is exposing local virus hot-spots, in order to inform and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions. A hot-spot is defined as an area experiencing exponential growth relative to the generalised growth of the pandemic. This paper uses the first and second waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa, as a case study. The study aims provide a data-driven methodology and comprehensive case study to expose location specific virus dynamics within a given area. The methodology uses an unsupervised Gaussian Mixture model to cluster cases at a desired granularity. This is combined with an epidemiological analysis to quantify each cluster's severity, progression and whether it can be defined as a hot-spot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Child hunger has long-term and short-term consequences, as starving children are at risk of many forms of malnutrition, including wasting, stunting, obesity and micronutrient deficiencies. The purpose of this paper is to show that the child hunger and socio-economic inequality in South Africa increased during her COVID-19 pandemic due to various lockdown regulations that have affected the economic status of the population.Methods: This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM WAVES 1-5) collected in South Africa during the intense COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 to assess the socioeconomic impacts of child hunger rated inequalities. First, child hunger was determined by a composite index calculated by the authors. Descriptive statistics were then shown for the investigated variables in a multiple logistic regression model to identify significant risk factors of child hunger. Additionally, the decomposable Erreygers' concentration index was used to measure socioeconomic inequalities on child hunger in South Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.Results: The overall burden of child hunger rates varied among the five waves (1-5). With proportions of adult respondents indicated that a child had gone hungry in the past 7 days: wave 1 (19.00%), wave 2 (13.76%), wave 3 (18.60%), wave 4 (15, 68%), wave 5 (15.30%). Child hunger burden was highest in the first wave and lowest in the second wave. The hunger burden was highest among children living in urban areas than among children living in rural areas. Access to electricity, access to water, respondent education, respondent gender, household size, and respondent age were significant determinants of adult reported child hunger. All the concentrated indices of the adult reported child hunger across households were negative in waves 1-5, suggesting that children from poor households were hungry. The intensity of the pro-poor inequalities also increased during the study period. To better understand what drove socioeconomic inequalites, in this study we analyzed the decomposed Erreygers Normalized Concentration Indices (ENCI). Across all five waves, results showed that race, socioeconomic status and type of housing were important factors in determining the burden of hunger among children in South Africa.Conclusion: This study described the burden of adult reported child hunger and associated socioeconomic inequalities during the Covid-19 pandemic. The increasing prevalence of adult reported child hunger, especially among urban children, and the observed poverty inequality necessitate multisectoral pandemic shock interventions now and in the future, especially for urban households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and researchers have used routine health data to estimate potential declines in the delivery and uptake of essential health services. This research relies on the data being high quality and, crucially, on the data quality not changing because of the pandemic. In this paper, we investigated those assumptions and assessed data quality before and during COVID-19. Methods: We obtained routine health data from the DHIS2 platforms in Ethiopia, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Nepal, and South Africa (KwaZulu-Natal province) for a range of 40 indicators on essential health services and institutional deaths. We extracted data over 24 months (January 2019–December 2020) including pre-pandemic data and the first 9 months of the pandemic. We assessed four dimensions of data quality: reporting completeness, presence of outliers, internal consistency, and external consistency. Results: We found high reporting completeness across countries and services and few declines in reporting at the onset of the pandemic. Positive outliers represented fewer than 1% of facility-month observations across services. Assessment of internal consistency across vaccine indicators found similar reporting of vaccines in all countries. Comparing cesarean section rates in the HMIS to those from population-representative surveys, we found high external consistency in all countries analyzed. Conclusions: While efforts remain to improve the quality of these data, our results show that several indicators in the HMIS can be reliably used to monitor service provision over time in these five countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 in South Africa, many safety measures were implemented to protect the lives of the population. Ironically, these same safety measures have negatively impacted on the lives of children and their caregivers resulting in increased mental health problems. This study forms part of the multicountry Co-SPACE (COVID-19: Supporting Parents, Adolescents and Children during Epidemics) study that explores how families are coping during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what caregivers can do to help support their children's mental health. This paper aims to gain a better understanding of the mental health status of families specifically in South Africa in the early onset of the pandemic during restrictive lockdown measures, and identify certain risk factors that might contribute towards deteriorating mental health. Two hundred and fifty-four South African parents and carers of children and adolescents completed an online survey about their child's mental health as well as their own mental health during and post- hard lockdown in South Africa. Data collection took place over the period of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Results showed that children experienced significantly higher mental health problems than adolescents (p = 0.016). Younger children were particularly negatively affected by lockdown and had more mental health problems than adolescents (p = 0.023); including emotional problems (p = 0.017), misconduct (p = 0.030), and hyperactivity (p = 0.001). Additionally, the presence of special educational needs/neurodevelopmental disorders (SEN/ND) was associated with more mental health problems (p = 0.001). Surprisingly, single parent households, which is another well-known risk factor showed no differences in mental health problems compared to nuclear families. There was also a reciprocal relationship between parental/carer mental health and child/adolescent mental health, with higher level of endorsement of mental health problems in children by parents/caregivers who themselves associated with higher levels of depression, anxiety and stress (all p's < 0.001). These results highlight the dramatic impact that COVID-19 had on children, adolescents and parents in South Africa early in the pandemic, and emphasises the need for specific support structures to be implemented within the SEN/ND community, as well as for younger children and single parent households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in an enormous dislocation of society especially in South Africa. The South African government has imposed a number of measures aimed at controlling the pandemic, chief being a nationwide lockdown. This has resulted in income loss for individuals and firms, with vulnerable populations (low earners, those in informal and precarious employment, etc.) more likely to be adversely affected through job losses and the resulting income loss. Income loss will likely result in reduced ability to access healthcare and a nutritious diet, thus adversely affecting health outcomes. Given the foregoing, we hypothesize that the economic dislocation caused by the coronavirus will disproportionately affect the health of the poor. Methods: Using the fifth wave of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) dataset conducted in 2017 and the first wave of the NIDS-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM) dataset conducted in May/June 2020, this paper estimated income-related health inequalities in South Africa before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Health was a dichotomized self-assessed health measure, with fair and poor health categorized as "poor" health, while excellent, very good and good health were categorized as "better" health. Household per capita income was used as the ranking variable. Concentration curves and indices were used to depict the income-related health inequalities. Furthermore, we decomposed the COVID-19 era income-related health inequality in order to ascertain the significant predictors of such inequality. Results: The results indicate that poor health was pro-poor in the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods, with the latter six times the value of the former. Being African (relative to white), per capita household income and household experience of hunger significantly predicted income-related health inequalities in the COVID-19 era (contributing 130%, 46% and 9% respectively to the inequalities), while being in paid employment had a nontrivial but statistically insignificant contribution (13%) to health inequality. Conclusions: Given the significance and magnitude of race, hunger, income and employment in determining socioeconomic inequalities in poor health, addressing racial disparities and hunger, income inequality and unemployment will likely mitigate income-related health inequalities in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic a public health emergency of international concern. South Africa, like many other countries, initiated a multifaceted national response to the pandemic. Self-isolation and quarantine are essential components of the public health response in the country. This paper examined perceptions and preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine during the initial phase of the pandemic in South Africa.Methods: The analysis used data obtained from an online quantitative survey conducted in all nine provinces using a data-free platform. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data.Results: Of 55,823 respondents, 40.1% reported that they may end up in self-isolation or quarantine, 32.6% did not think that they would and 27.4% were unsure. Preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine was 59.0% for self, 53.8% for child and 59.9% for elderly. The odds of perceived possibility for self-isolation or quarantine were significantly higher among Coloureds, Whites, and Indians/Asians than Black Africans, and among those with moderate or high self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 than those with low risk perception. The odds were significantly lower among older age groups than those aged 18-29 years, and those unemployed than fully employed. The odds of preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine were significantly less likely among females than males. Preparedness for self, child and elderly isolation or quarantine was significantly more likely among other population groups than Black Africans and among older age groups than those aged 18-29 years. Preparedness for self, child and elderly isolation or quarantine was significantly less likely among those self-employed than fully employed and those residing in informal dwellings than formal dwellings. In addition, preparedness for self-isolation or quarantine was significantly less likely among those with moderate and high self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 than low risk perception.Conclusion: The findings highlight the challenge of implementing self-isolation or quarantine in a country with different and unique social contexts. There is a need for public awareness regarding the importance of self-isolation or quarantine as well as counter measures against contextual factors inhibiting this intervention, especially in impoverished communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Young women and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans, Non-binary/no gender, or Questioning (LGBTQ+) youth in South Africa face some of the highest global levels of intimate partner violence (IPV). Given limited evidence in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has fuelled IPV globally, we aimed to describe and compare experiences and perpetration of IPV of youth aged 16–24 by sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI). Methods: During the study period (December 2021-May 2022), youth aged 16–24 from eThekwini district, South Africa completed an online survey to understand multilevel impacts of the pandemic on youth. Participants were asked about experiences and perpetration of physical IPV since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020). Descriptive statistics and adjusted logistic regressions compared the likelihood of experiencing and/or perpetrating physical IPV between cisgender and transgender inclusive heterosexual men; heterosexual women; gay, bisexual, or questioning men [GBQM]; lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning women [LGBQW]; or gender/sexual non-conforming youth [non-conforming]. Results: Of 1,588 youth (mean age = 21.7 [SD = 2.3]; 71.7% Black) with non-missing SOGI and physical IPV data, 238 (15.0%) were LGBTQ+ (40.3% LGBQW and 36.1% non-conforming). Overall, 14.6% of respondents experienced physical IPV and 9.8% perpetrated physical IPV since the start of the pandemic, which differed by SOGI (12.3% of heterosexual men, 13.9% of heterosexual women, 22.0% of GBQM, 18.2% of LGBQW, and 25.0% of non-conforming youth experienced and 10.3% of heterosexual men; 7.7% of heterosexual women; 10.0% of GBQM; 18.2% of LGBQW; and 16.7% of non-conforming youth perpetrated). In adjusted models, compared to heterosexual women, non-conforming youth had increased odds of experiencing (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.36; 95%CI, 1.26–4.39) physical IPV and compared to heterosexual men, non-conforming youth had greater odds of perpetrating physical IPV (aOR = 2.19; 95%CI, 1.07–4.48) during the pandemic. Conclusion: Over one in six youth in our study experienced and one in ten perpetrated physical IPV since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with gender and sexual non-conforming youth experiencing and perpetrating IPV at significantly greater rates than cisgender/heterosexual peers. Our findings highlight the need for gender transformative efforts that move beyond the gender binary to support healthy relationships and IPV prevention for LGBTQ + youth in South Africa and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Repeated COVID-19 waves and corresponding mitigation measures have impacted health systems globally with exceptional challenges. In response to the pandemic, researchers, regulators, and funders rapidly pivoted to COVID-19 research activities. However, many clinical drug studies were not completed, due to often complex and rapidly evolving research conditions. Methods: We outline our experience of planning and managing a randomised, adaptive, open-label, phase 2 clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of four repurposed drug regimens versus standard-of-care (SOC) in outpatients with 'mild to moderate' COVID-19 in Johannesburg, South Africa, in the context of a partnership with multiple stakeholders. The study was conducted between 3 September 2020 and 23 August 2021 during changing COVID-19 restrictions, significant morbidity and mortality waves, and allied supply line, economic, and political instability. Results: Our clinical study design was pragmatic, including low-risk patients who were treated open label. There was built-in flexibility, including provision for some sample size adjustment and a range of secondary efficacy outcomes. Barriers to recruitment included the timing of waves, staff shortages due to illness, late presentation of patients, COVID-19 misinformation, and political unrest. Mitigations were the use of community health workers, deployment of mobile clinical units, and simplification of screening. Trial management required a radical reorganisation of logistics and processes to accommodate COVID-19 restrictions. These included the delivery of staff training and monitoring remotely, electronic consent, patient training and support to collect samples and report data at home, and the introduction of tele-medicine. These measures were successful for data collection, safe, and well received by patients. Conclusion: Completing a COVID-19 trial in outpatients during the height of the pandemic required multiple innovations in nearly every aspect of clinical trial management, a high commitment level from study staff and patients, and support from study sponsors. Our experience has generated a more robust clinical research infrastructure, building in efficiencies to clinical trial management beyond the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To limit virus spread during the COVID pandemic, extensive measures were implemented around the world. In South Africa, these restrictions included alcohol and movement restrictions, factors previously linked to injury burden in the country. Consequently, reports from many countries, including South Africa, have shown a reduction in trauma presentations related to these restrictions. However, only few studies and none from Africa focus on the impact of the pandemic restrictions on the Emergency Medical System (EMS). Methods: We present a retrospective, observational longitudinal study including data from all ambulance transports of physical trauma cases collected during the period 2019–01-01 and 2021–02-28 from the Western Cape Government EMS in the Western Cape Province, South Africa (87,167 cases). Within this timeframe, the 35-days strictest lockdown level period was compared to a 35-days period prior to the lockdown and to the same 35-days period in 2019. Injury characteristics (intent, mechanism, and severity) and time were studied in detail. Ambulance transport volumes as well as ambulance response and on-scene time before and during the pandemic were compared. Significance between indicated periods was determined using Chi-square test. Results: During the strictest lockdown period, presentations of trauma cases declined by > 50%. Ambulance transport volumes decreased for all injury mechanisms and proportions changed. The share of assaults and traffic injuries decreased by 6% and 8%, respectively, while accidental injuries increased by 5%. The proportion of self-inflicted injuries increased by 5%. Studies of injury time showed an increased share of injuries during day shift and a reduction of total injury volume during the weekend during the lockdown. Median response- and on-scene time remained stable in the time-periods studied. Conclusion: This is one of the first reports on the influence of COVID-19 related restrictions on EMS, and the first in South Africa. We report a decline in trauma related ambulance transport volumes in the Western Cape Province as well as changes in injury patterns, largely corresponding to previous findings from hospital settings in South Africa. The unchanged response and on-scene times indicate a well-functioning EMS despite pandemic challenges. More studies are needed, especially disaggregating the different restrictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In South Africa, public perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and risk mitigation measures remain mixed. To better understand health behaviours in the context of COVID-19, a qualitative study was conducted, which aimed to investigate perceptions relating to the COVID-19 pandemic among the South African adult population. Methods: Twelve online focus groups were conducted across the following age groups: 18–34, 35–54, 55 + years old (total n = 70) in December 2021. Diversity across socioeconomic status, geographical areas, and urban and rural settings was maximised, with an equal representation of men and women. Focus groups were conducted, and audio recorded using an online platform, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using MAXQDA. Results: There were mixed perceptions around the pandemic, however, the majority of participants appreciated government actions at the onset of the pandemic and as a result government trust was reported to have initially been high. Nevertheless, as the pandemic progressed, challenges relating to government communication around the pandemic, the inconsistent application of preventative measures by government, the use of soldiers to enforce preventative measures, the banning of alcohol and cigarettes, government corruption and the pervasiveness of social media were reported to have eroded government trust, negatively impacting the uptake of preventative measures. Economic and psychological impacts were experienced differently across income groups. Low-income earners, who already had pre-existing economic challenges reported increased psychological and financial strain. While the once cushioned middle class reported an increase in job insecurity accompanied by psychological challenges. High income earners did not report economic challenges but reported being affected psychologically. Though, low-income earners reported an appreciation of the government financial relief afforded to them middle income earners appeared to not have received adequate financial support. Conclusion: With the existing mistrust of government, there is need for government to leverage existing trusted sources in communities to aid in the implementation of preventative measures. These findings support the development of context specific solutions to address challenges faced at different socioeconomic levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has created multiple mental health challenges. Many residents in South Africa face pre-existing elevated levels of stress and the pandemic may have had varying impacts on sub-populations. The aims of this study were to determine: 1) the factors associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and 2) sex differences in the factors associated with PTSS in adults residing in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Study participants aged 18 years and above, were recruited for this cross-sectional study through an online survey implemented from June 29, 2020 to December 31, 2020. The outcome variable was PTSS; explanatory variables were sex at birth, COVID-19 status, social isolation and access to emotional support. Confounders considered were age, education level completed and current work status. Logistic regressions were used to determine the association between the outcome and explanatory variables after adjusting for confounders. Outcomes: There were 489 respondents. Among all respondents, those who were older (AOR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95 – 0.99) and had access to emotional support from family and relatives (AOR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14 – 0.53) had significantly lower odds of PTSS. Respondents who felt socially isolated had higher odds of PTSS (AOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08 – 1.27). Females had higher PTSS scores and higher odds of PTSS compared to males (AOR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.41-3.39). Females (AOR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.08 – 0.95) and males (AOR: 0.26; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.59) who had access to emotional support had significantly lower odds of PTSS than those who had no support. Females (AOR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.04 -1.27) and males (AOR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.59) who felt socially isolated had higher odds of PTSS compared to those who did not feel socially isolated. Interpretation: Compared to males, females had higher scores and higher odds of reporting PTSS during the COVID-19 pandemic. Access to emotional support ameliorated the odds of having PTSS for both sexes, while feeling socially isolated worsened the odds for both sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In contexts where poverty and mental health stressors already interact to negatively impact the most vulnerable populations, COVID-19 is likely to have worsened these impacts. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa already faced intersecting mental health stressors and vulnerabilities. It is critical to understand how additional challenges brought on by COVID-19 have intersected with existing vulnerabilities and mental health risks AGYW faced, particularly given the intersections between psychological distress and increased risk behaviours that impact sexual and reproductive health. We aimed to examine socio-economic and mental health impacts of COVID-19 on South African AGYW in order to understand how additional challenges brought on by COVID-19 have intersected with existing challenges, compounding AGYW vulnerabilities. Methods: Using qualitative and quantitative methods, framed by the syndemic theory, we examined the intersections between mental health and the COVID-19 epidemic amongst AGYW in six districts of South Africa characterised by high rates of HIV, teenage pregnancy and socio-economic hardship. Between November 2020 and March 2021 we conducted a cross-sectional telephone survey with 515 AGYW, and in-depth interviews with 50 AGYW, aged 15 to 24 years. Results: Our findings reveal how COVID-19 restrictions led to increased experiences of stress and anxiety. Poor mental health was compounded by strained family relationships, increased fear of domestic violence, household unemployment, economic stress and food insecurity. Respondents described feelings of boredom, frustration, isolation, loneliness, fear and hopelessness. However, despite the multitude of challenges, some AGYW articulated emotional resilience, describing ways in which they coped and retained hope. Conclusion: Various psycho-social risk factors already disproportionally affect the mental health of AGYW in these communities; the COVID-19 pandemic intersects with these pre-existing social and environmental factors. Understanding strategies AGYW have used to positively cope with the uncertainty of COVID-19 amongst an array of pre-existing mental health stressors, is key in informing efforts to respond to their needs. Multisectoral interventions are needed to address the drivers of poor mental health among AGYW, and bolster healthy coping mechanisms; interventions seeking to mitigate the mental health impacts on this vulnerable population need to be responsive to the unpredictable pandemic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted people with substance use disorders (SUDs) worldwide. The aim of this study was to explore, changes in the number of SUD treatment episodes provided during the height of the pandemic and, SUD treatment providers' perceptions of the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on people with SUDs and the delivery of SUD treatment services in South Africa. Methods: We used administrative data collected as part of the South African Community Epidemiology Network on Drug Use (SACENDU) project to assess whether the number of treatment episodes changed during the height of COVID-19 restrictions. We used data from an online survey of SUD treatment providers to assess providers' perceptions of the impact of COVID-19 on SUD treatment delivery. Eight seven SUD facilities were recruited to participate in the online survey. Results: Sixty-three organisations (out of a total of 86) participated in the survey, yielding a 73.2% response rate. About half (n = 30; 47.6%) of the sample thought the need for SUD treatment had remained the same or had increased during the COVID-19 lockdown. Half the sample (n = 32; 50.7%) reported decreased availability of SUD services during COVID-19 lockdowns. Participants believed that the lack of services during COVID-19 lockdown impacted negatively on patients that were enrolled in their programmes and on individuals who wished to access the service. Furthermore, changes in service provision seemed to increase patients' anxiety, exacerbate pre-existing mental health problems and in some cases were thought to precipitate relapse. In addition, patient disengagement and attrition from treatment were thought to have increased during this period. Whilst 47.6% (n = 30) of providers agreed with the value of the alcohol ban, 23.8% (n = 15) of providers thought it had unintended negative consequences. Conclusion: Based on the findings it is evident that SUD treatment services in South Africa have been significantly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic and more severely during the onset of the pandemic. Together with service providers, more effective ways should be sought on how to feasibly expand access to SUD treatment for all South Africans and enhance the country's preparedness for future health emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The declaration of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a pandemic in early 2020, has seen an upsurge in research globally to fill gaps in the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 virus impact on health care and clinical management, as well as possible prevention and treatment modalities. Published literature on the different types of COVID-19 research conducted globally is varied and is particularly limited in Africa. This study sets out to describe the COVID-19-related research registered and conducted on the African continent.Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of all COVID-19-related studies available in the WHO's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) repository. We extracted studies registered from March 1, 2020, to July 15, 2021. A descriptive analysis of the extracted data was performed, and the findings were presented.Results: At extraction, a total of 12,533 COVID-19-related studies were listed on the ICTRP portal. We included 9803 studies, after excluding 2060 duplicate records and 686 records without a site/country. While 9347 studies (96%) were conducted outside of Africa, only 456 studies (4%) were conducted in the African continent, of which 270 (59.2%) were interventional studies, and 184 (40.4%) were observational studies. About 80% of the studies were conducted in Egypt and South Africa, and most of these involved testing of drugs and biologicals.Conclusion: The African continent hosts considerably fewer COVID-19-related research compared to other parts of the world. This may have implications on scientific evidence available for implementing COVID-19 control efforts. There is, therefore, a need for local funding and ownership of research projects and north-south collaboration in research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: South Africa implemented rapid and strict physical distancing regulations to minimize SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spread. Evidence on the impact of such measures on interpersonal contact in rural and lower-income settings is limited.Methods: We compared population-representative social contact surveys conducted in the same rural KwaZulu-Natal location once in 2019 and twice in mid-2020. Respondents reported characteristics of physical and conversational ('close interaction') contacts over 24 hours. We built age-mixing matrices and estimated the proportional change in the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (R0). Respondents also reported counts of others present at locations visited and transport used, from which we evaluated change in potential exposure to airborne infection due to shared indoor space ('shared air').Results: Respondents in March-December 2019 (n = 1704) reported a mean of 7.4 close interaction contacts and 196 shared air person-hours beyond their homes. Respondents in June-July 2020 (n = 216), as the epidemic peaked locally, reported 4.1 close interaction contacts and 21 shared air person-hours outside their home, with significant declines in others' homes and public spaces. Adults aged over 50 had fewer close contacts with others over 50, but little change in contact with 15-29 year olds, reflecting ongoing contact within multigenerational households. We estimate potential R0 fell by 42% (95% plausible range 14-59%) between 2019 and June-July 2020.Conclusions: Extra-household social contact fell substantially following imposition of Covid-19 distancing regulations in rural South Africa. Ongoing contact within intergenerational households highlighted a potential limitation of social distancing measures in protecting older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little attention has been paid to the comparison of COVID-19 pandemic responses and related factors in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. We aimed at evaluating the association of daily new COVID-19 cases with socio-economic and demographic factors, health vulnerability, resources, and policy response in BRICS countries. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using data on the COVID-19 pandemic and other indicators of BRICS countries from February 26, 2020 to April 30, 2021. We compared COVID-19 epidemic in BRICS countries and analyzed related factors by log-linear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) models. Results: In BRICS countries, India had the highest totally of confirmed cases with 18.76 million, followed by Brazil (14.45 million), Russia (4.81 million), and South Africa (1.58 million), while China (0.10 million) had the lowest figure. South Africa had the lowest rate of administered vaccine doses (0.18 million) among BRICS countries as of April 30, 2021. In the GAM model, a 1 unit increase in population density and policy stringency index was associated with a 5.17% and 1.95% growth in daily new COVID-19 cases (P < 0.001), respectively. Exposure–response curves for the effects of policy stringency index on daily new cases showed that there was a rapid surge in number of daily new COVID-19 cases when the index ranged from 0 to 45. The number of infections climbed slowly when the index ranged from 46 to 80, and decreased when the index was above 80 (P < 0.001). In addition, daily new COVID-19 cases (all P < 0.001) were also correlated with life expectancy at birth (-1.61%), extreme poverty (8.95%), human development index (-0.05%), GDP per capita (-0.18%), diabetes prevalence (0.66%), proportion of population aged 60 and above (2.23%), hospital beds per thousand people (-0.08%), proportion of people with access to improved drinking water (-7.40%), prevalence of open defecation (0.69%), and annual tourist/visitor arrivals (0.003%), after controlling other confounders. Different lag structures showed similar results in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Strong policy response is crucial to control the pandemic, such as effective containment and case management. Our findings also highlighted the importance of reducing socio-economic inequalities and strengthening the resilience of health systems to better respond to public health emergencies globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global response to COVID-19 pandemic has inadvertently undermined the achievement of existing public health priorities and laregely overlooked local context. Recent evidence suggests that this will cause additional maternal and childhood mortality and morbidity especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we have explored the contextual factors influencing maternal, neonatal and children health (MNCH) care in Bangladesh, Nigeria and South Africa amidst the pandemic. Our findings suggest that between March and May 2020, there was a reduction in utilisation of basic essential MNCH services such as antenatal care, family planning and immunization due to: a) the implementation of lockdown which triggered fear of contracting the COVID-19 and deterred people from accessing basic MNCH care, and b) a shift of focus towards pandemic, causing the detriment to other health services, and c) resource constraints. Taken together these issues have resulted in compromised provision of basic general healthcare. Given the likelihood of recurrent waves of the pandemic globally, COVID-19 mitigation plans therefore should be integrated with standard care provision to enhance system resilience to cope with all health needs. This commentary suggests a four-point contextualised mitigation plan to safeguard MNCH care during the pandemic using the observed countries as exemplars for LMIC health system adaptations to maintain the trajectory of progress regarding sustainable development goals (SDGs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Given projected shortages of critical care capacity in public hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government embarked on an initiative to purchase this capacity from private hospitals. In order to inform purchasing decisions, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of intensive care management for admitted COVID-19 patients across the public and private health systems in South Africa. Methods: Using a modelling framework and health system perspective, costs and health outcomes of inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in (1) general ward and intensive care (GW + ICU) versus (2) general ward only (GW) were assessed. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were evaluated and the cost per admission in public and private sectors was determined. The model made use of four variables: mortality rates, utilisation of inpatient days for each management approach, disability weights associated with severity of disease, and the unit cost per general ward day and per ICU day in public and private hospitals. Unit costs were multiplied by utilisation estimates to determine the cost per admission. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) - representing difference in costs and health outcomes of the two management strategies - was compared to a cost-effectiveness threshold to determine the value for money of expansion in ICU services during COVID-19 surges. Results: A cost per admission of ZAR 75,127 was estimated for inpatient management of severe and critical COVID-19 patients in GW as opposed to ZAR 103,030 in GW + ICU. DALYs were 1.48 and 1.10 in GW versus GW + ICU, respectively. The ratio of difference in costs and health outcomes between the two management strategies produced an ICER of ZAR 73,091 per DALY averted, a value above the cost-effectiveness threshold of ZAR 38,465. Conclusions: Results indicated that purchasing ICU capacity from the private sector during COVID-19 surges may not be a cost-effective investment. The 'real time', rapid, pragmatic, and transparent nature of this analysis demonstrates an approach for evidence generation for decision making relating to the COVID-19 pandemic response and South Africa's wider priority setting agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]