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Global warming has become one of the most prominent global issues, and Antarctic ice sheet is one of the indicator of global climate change. Satellite imagery has become an important means of monitoring the changes in Antarctic ice sheet. Due to the high overlap of satellite imaging swaths, the existing Antarctica images have the disadvantages of long period of imagery acquisition, large temporal difference among the mosaic images, and low utilization of satellite resource. This paper proposes a satellite imaging mission planning method for fast Antarctica coverage. First, the imaging time window is forecasted within the specified imaging time range to obtain all the visible time windows of the imaging satellite to Antarctica. Then, taking the selection of each time window and the satellite swing angle in each time window as decision variables, and the satellite attitude maneuver ability as constraint, an imaging mission model including two objective functions with minimum number of imaging time windows and the maximum coverage rate is established. To solving the proposed multi-objective optimization model, an improved real-binary hybrid LMOCSO (large-scale multi-objective optimization based on a competitive swarm optimizer) is proposed in this paper. Finally, a simulation experiment was performed using Gaofen-3 satellite to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solid precipitation measurements in Antarctica are crucial as snowfall represents the main water input term for the polar cap, and its probable increase in the coming century can mitigate sea-level rise caused by global warming. This paper presents 7 years of Micro Rain Radar (Metek MRR-2) data at the Dumont d'Urville station in coastal Adélie Land, East Antarctica. Statistics are calculated on 3 radar variables (equivalent reflectivity, mean Doppler velocity and signal-to-noise ratio) to outline the main characteristics of the radar dataset. Seasonal and interannual variabilities are also investigated, but no significant temporal trends are detected except for the seasonal mean Doppler velocity which is higher in summer and lower in winter. We then use the snowfall rate (S) data from a colocated snow-gauge to estimate the MRR precipitation profile from the radar equivalent reflectivity (Ze) through a locally derived Ze-S relation. We find the relation Ze = 43.3 S0.88. The processing method used to obtain this relation, data quality and uncertainty considerations are discussed in the manuscript. In order to give an example of application of the dataset, a brief statistical comparison of the MRR precipitation rate along the vertical with model data from the ERA5 reanalysis and the LMDZ climate model is performed, and notably shows that models underestimate heavy precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of - 144 ± 27 Gt a -1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE ;). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a -1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of - 0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melting is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica and is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melting. Enhanced surface melt will impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, the current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in terms of the uncertainties in quantifying surface melt and understanding the driving processes of surface melt in past, present and future contexts. Here, we construct a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed positive degree-day (PDD) model, forced with 2 m air temperature reanalysis data and spatially parameterized by minimizing the error with respect to satellite estimates and surface energy balance (SEB) model outputs on each computing cell over the period 1979 to 2022. We evaluate the PDD model by performing a goodness-of-fit test and cross-validation. We assess the accuracy of our parameterization method, based on the performance of the PDD model when considering all computing cells as a whole, independently of the time window chosen for parameterization. We conduct a sensitivity experiment by adding ±10 % to the training data (satellite estimates and SEB model outputs) used for PDD parameterization and a sensitivity experiment by adding constant temperature perturbations (+1 , +2 , +3 , +4 and +5 ∘ C) to the 2 m air temperature field to force the PDD model. We find that the PDD melt extent and amounts change analogously to the variations in the training data with steady statistically significant correlations and that the PDD melt amounts increase nonlinearly with the temperature perturbations, demonstrating the consistency of our parameterization and the applicability of the PDD model to warmer climate scenarios. Within the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few ice cores from the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) extend back in time further than a few hundred years. The WAIS is believed to be susceptible to collapse as a result of anthropogenic climate change and may have at least partially collapsed during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Understanding the stability of the WAIS during warm periods such as the LIG and Holocene is important. As part of the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project, the British Antarctic Survey's (BAS) Rapid Access Isotope Drill (RAID) was deployed in 2020 on Sherman Island in the Abbot Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. We drilled a 323 m deep borehole, with discrete samples of ice chippings collected that cover the entire depth range of the drilled ice. The samples were analysed for stable water isotope composition and major ion content at BAS from 2020–2022. Using annual layer counting of chemical records, volcanic horizon identification and ice modelling, an age scale for the record of 1724 discrete samples is presented. The Sherman Island ice record extends back to greater than 1240 years, providing the oldest, continuous ice-derived palaeoclimate records in the coastal Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea sectors to date. We demonstrate the potential for recovery of a complete Holocene climate record from Sherman Island in the future and confidence in the ability of RAID samples to contain sufficiently resolved records for meaningful climatic interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceanic forcing of basal melt under floating ice shelves in Greenland and Antarctica is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate ice sheet modelling. We use a high-resolution, nonhydrostatic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to investigate basal melt rates and melt-driven circulation in the Sherard Osborn Fjord under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. The control model configuration, based on the first-ever observational survey by Ryder 2019 Expedition, yielded melt rates consistent with independent satellite estimates. A protocol of model sensitivity experiments quantified the response to oceanic thermal forcing due to warming Atlantic Water and to the buoyancy input from the subglacial discharge of surface fresh water. We found that the average basal melt rates show a nonlinear response to oceanic forcing in the lower range of ocean temperatures, while the response becomes indistinguishable from linear for higher ocean temperatures, which unifies the results from previous modelling studies of other marine-terminating glaciers. The melt rate response to subglacial discharge is sublinear, consistent with other studies. The melt rates and circulation below the ice tongue exhibit a spatial pattern that is determined by the ambient density stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With progressing global warming, snowfall in Antarctica is expected to increase, which could counteract or even temporarily overcompensate increased ice-sheet mass losses caused by increased ice discharge and melting. For sea-level projections it is therefore vital to understand the processes determining snowfall changes in Antarctica. Here we revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature changes and precipitation changes, identifying and explaining regional differences and deviations from the theoretical approach based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Analysing the latest estimates from global (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and regional (RACMO2.3) model projections, we find an average increase of 5.5 % in annual precipitation over Antarctica per degree of warming, with a minimum sensitivity of 2 % K -1 near Siple Coast and a maximum sensitivity of > 10 % K -1 at the East Antarctic plateau region. This large range can be explained by the prevailing climatic conditions, with local temperatures determining the Clausius–Clapeyron sensitivity that is counteracted in some regions by the prevalence of the coastal wind regime. We compare different approaches of deriving the sensitivity factor, which in some cases can lead to sensitivity changes of up to 7 percentage points for the same model. Importantly, local sensitivity factors are found to be strongly dependent on the warming level, suggesting that some ice-sheet models which base their precipitation estimates on parameterisations derived from these sensitivity factors might overestimate warming-induced snowfall changes, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This would have consequences for Antarctic sea-level projections for this century and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-time palynological studies are necessary to evaluate plant and fungal distribution under warmer-than-present scenarios such as those of the Middle Miocene. Previous palynological studies from southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (SMS), have provided unique documentation for Neogene environments in the Ross Sea region during a time of pronounced global warming. The present study builds on these studies and provides a new climate reconstruction using the previously published SMS pollen and plant spore data. Additionally, 44 SMS samples were reanalyzed with a focus on the fungal fraction of the section to evaluate the fungal distribution under warmer than present conditions. The probability-based climate reconstruction technique (CREST) was applied to provide a new plant-based representation of regional paleoclimate for this Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) locality. CREST reconstructs a paleoclimate that is warmer and significantly wetter than present in SMS during the MCO, with mean annual precipitation reconstructed at 1147 mm yr -1 (95 % confidence range: 238–2611 mm yr -1) and a maximum mean annual temperature of 10.3 ∘ C (95 % confidence range: 2.0–20.2 ∘ C) for the warmest intervals of the MCO. The CREST reconstruction fits within the Cfb Köppen–Geiger climate class during the MCO of SMS. This new reconstruction agrees with previous reconstructions using various geochemical proxies. The fungal palynological analyses yielded surprising results, with only a single morphotype recovered, in low abundance, with concentrations ranging up to 199 fungi per gram of dried sediment. The taxa present belongs to the Apiosporaceae family and are known to be adapted to a wide range of climate and environmental conditions. As fungi are depauperate members of the SMS MCO palynofloras and because the one morphotype recovered is cosmopolitan, using the fungi record to confirm a narrow Köppen–Geiger climate class is impossible. Overall, the study demonstrates refinement of plant-based paleoclimatic reconstructions and sheds light on the limited presence of fungi during the MCO in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply geologic evidence from ice-free areas in Antarctica to evaluate model simulations of ice sheet response to warm climates. This is important because such simulations are used to predict ice sheet behaviour in future warm climates, but geologic evidence of smaller-than-present past ice sheets is buried under the present ice sheet and therefore generally unavailable for model benchmarking. We leverage an alternative accessible geologic dataset for this purpose: cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in bedrock surfaces of interior nunataks. These data produce a frequency distribution of ice thickness over multimillion-year periods, which is also simulated by ice sheet modelling. End-member transient models, parameterized with strong and weak marine ice sheet instability processes and ocean temperature forcings, simulate large and small sea-level impacts during warm periods and also predict contrasting and distinct frequency distributions of ice thickness. We identify regions of Antarctica where predicted frequency distributions reveal differences in end-member ice sheet behaviour. We then demonstrate that a single comprehensive dataset from one bedrock site in West Antarctica is sufficiently detailed to show that the data are consistent only with a weak marine ice sheet instability end-member, but other less extensive datasets are insufficient and/or ambiguous. Finally, we highlight locations where collecting additional data could constrain the amplitude of past and therefore future response to warm climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analysed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ∘ C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events in the ocean severely impact marine organisms and ecosystems. Of particular concern are compound events, i.e., when conditions are extreme for multiple potential ocean ecosystem stressors such as temperature and chlorophyll. Yet, little is known about the occurrence, intensity, and duration of such compound high-temperature (a.k.a. marine heatwaves – MHWs) and low-chlorophyll (LChl) extreme events, whether their distributions have changed in the past decades, and what the potential drivers are. Here we use satellite-based sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration estimates to provide a first assessment of such compound extreme events. We reveal hotspots of compound MHW and LChl events in the equatorial Pacific, along the boundaries of the subtropical gyres, in the northern Indian Ocean, and around Antarctica. In these regions, compound events that typically last 1 week occur 3 to 7 times more often than expected under the assumption of independence between MHWs and LChl events. The occurrence of compound MHW and LChl events varies on seasonal to interannual timescales. At the seasonal timescale, most compound events occur in summer in both hemispheres. At the interannual timescale, the frequency of compound MHW and LChl events is strongly modulated by large-scale modes of natural climate variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, whose positive phase is associated with increased compound event occurrence in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in the Indian Ocean by a factor of up to 4. Our results provide a first understanding of where, when, and why compound MHW and LChl events occur. Further studies are needed to identify the exact physical and biological drivers of these potentially harmful events in the ocean and their evolution under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic continent is a vast desert and is the coldest and the most unknown area on Earth. It contains the Antarctic ice sheet, the largest continental water reservoir on Earth that could be affected by the current global warming, leading to sea level rise. The only significant supply of ice is through precipitation, which can be observed from the surface and from space. Remote-sensing observations of the coastal regions and the inner continent using CloudSat radar give an estimated rate of snowfall but with uncertainties twice as large as each single measured value, whereas climate models give a range from half to twice the space–time-averaged observations. The aim of this study is the evaluation of the vertical precipitation rate profiles of CloudSat radar by comparison with two surface-based micro-rain radars (MRRs), located at the coastal French Dumont d'Urville station and at the Belgian Princess Elisabeth station located in the Dronning Maud Land escarpment zone. This in turn leads to a better understanding and reassessment of CloudSat uncertainties. We compared a total of four precipitation events, two per station, when CloudSat overpassed within 10 km of the station and we compared these two different datasets at each vertical level. The correlation between both datasets is near-perfect, even though climatic and geographic conditions are different for the two stations. Using different CloudSat and MRR vertical levels, we obtain 10 km space-scale and short-timescale (a few seconds) CloudSat uncertainties from -13 % up to +22 %. This confirms the robustness of the CloudSat retrievals of snowfall over Antarctica above the blind zone and justifies further analyses of this dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]