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Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool needs to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as "CMORization". While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing of "native" climate model output, i.e., operational output produced by running the climate model through the standard workflow of the corresponding modeling institute. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool's preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitude–longitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool's regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids. Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; at the moment, only surface variables are available), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSL-CM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool need to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as CMORization. While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing native climate model output, i.e., raw output directly produced by the climate model. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool’s preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitudelongitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool’s regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids.Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; will be fully available in ESMValTool v2.7.0), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSLCM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and demographic pressures are affecting both the urban water balance and microclimate, thus amplifying urban flooding and the urban heat island phenomena. These issues need to be addressed when engaging in urban planning activities. Local authorities and stakeholders have therefore opted for more nature-based adaptation strategies, which are especially suitable in influencing hydrological and energy processes. Assessing the multiple benefits of such strategies on the urban microclimate requires highperformance numerical tools. This paper presents recent developments dedicated to the water budget in the Town Energy Balance for vegetated surfaces (TEB-Veg) model (surface externalisée; SURFEX v7.3), thus providing a more complete representation of the hydrological processes taking place in the urban subsoil. This new hydrological module is called TEB-Hydro. Its inherent features include the introduction of subsoil beneath built surfaces, the horizontal rebalancing of intra-mesh soil moisture, soil water drainage via the sewer network and the limitation of deep drainage. A sensitivity analysis is then performed in order to identify the hydrological parameters required for model calibration. This new TEB-Hydro model is evaluated on two small residential catchments in Nantes (France), over two distinct periods, by comparing simulated sewer discharge with observed findings. In both cases, the model tends to overestimate total sewer discharge and performs better under wet weather conditions, with a Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) statistical criterion greater than 0.80 vs. approximately 0.60 under drier conditions. These results are encouraging since the same set of model parameters is identified for both catchments, irrespective of meteorological and local physical conditions. This approach offers opportunities to apply the TEB-Hydro model at the city scale alongside projections of climate and demographic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is resulting in more frequent rainstorms and more rain-induced debris flows in mountainous areas. The prediction of likely hazard zones is important for debris flow risk assessment and management. Existing numerical methods for debris flow analysis often require the input of hydrographs at prescribed initiation locations, ignoring the initiation process and leading to large uncertainties in debris flow initiation locations, times, and volumes when applied to regional debris flow analysis. The evolution of the flowing mixture in time and space is also barely addressed. This paper presents a new integrated numerical model, EDDA 2.0, to simulate the whole process of debris flow initiation, motion, entrainment, deposition, and property changes. Two physical initiation mechanisms are modelled: transformation from slope failures and surface erosion. Three numerical tests and field application to a catastrophic debris flow event are conducted to verify the model components and evaluate the model performance. The results indicate that the integrated model is capable of simulating the initiation and subsequent flowing process of rain-induced debris flows, as well as the physical evolution of the flowing mixture. The integrated model provides a powerful tool for analysing multi-hazard processes, hazard interactions, and regional debris flow risk assessment in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limb scatter instruments in the UV--vis spectral range have provided long-term global records of stratospheric aerosol extinction important for climate records and modelling. While comparisons with occultation instruments show generally good agreement, the source and magnitude of the biases arising from retrieval assumptions, approximations in the radiative transfer modelling and inversion techniques have not been thoroughly characterized. This paper explores the biases between SCIAMACHY v1.4, OSIRIS v5.07 and SAGE II v7.00 aerosol extinctions through a series of coincident comparisons as well as simulation and retrieval studies to investigate the cause and magnitude of the various systematic differences. The effect of a priori profiles, particle size assumptions, radiative transfer modelling, inversion techniques and the different satellite datasets are explored. It is found that the assumed a priori profile can have a large effect near the normalization point, as well as systematic influence at lower altitudes. The error due to particle size assumptions is relatively small when averaged over a range of scattering angles, but individual errors depend on the particular scattering angle, particle size and measurement vector definition. Differences due to radiative transfer modelling introduce differences between the retrieved products of less than 10% on average, but can introduce vertical structure. The combination of the different scenario simulations and the application of both algorithms to both datasets enable the origin of some of the systematic features such as high-altitude differences when compared to SAGE II to be explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling coastal morphological changes at decadal to centennial time scales is required to support sustainable coastal management world-wide. One approach involves coupling of landform-specific components (e.g. cliff, beach, dunes, estuaries, etc.) that have been independently developed. An alternative, and novel approach explored in this paper is to capture the essential characteristics of the landform-specific models using a common spatial representation within an appropriate software-environment. In the proposed Coastal Modelling Environment (CoastalME), change in coastal morphology is formulated by means of dynamically linked raster and geometrical objects. A grid of raster cells provides the data structure for representing quasi-3D spatial heterogeneity and sediment conservation. Other geometrical objects (lines, areas and volumes) that are consistent with, and derived from, the raster structure represent a library of coastal elements (e.g. shoreline, beach profiles and estuary volumes) as required by different landform-specific models. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the potential capabilities of CoastalME by integrating a cliff-beach model. We verify that CoastalME can reproduce behaviours of each individual landform-specific model. Their integration within the framework of CoastalME reveals behaviours that emerge from landforms interaction and which have not previously been captured, such as the influence of the regional bathymetry on the local alongshore sediment transport gradient. This is the first step of the framework development, which provides an alternative to directly coupling existing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been subject to extensive research. Though there is a well developed theory of this phenomenon being forced by wave-mean flow interaction, simulating the QBO adequately in globalclimate models (GCMs) still remains difficult. This paper presents a set of metrics to characterise the QBO using a number of different reanalysis datasets and the FU Berlin radiosonde observationdataset. The same metrics are then calculated from CMIP5 and CCMVal-2 intercomparison project simulations which included a representation of QBO like behaviour to evaluate which aspects of the QBO are well captured by the models and which ones remain a challenge for future modeldevelopment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, and including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern-scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in amount of warming over land and globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper we present a pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for CMIP5 ensemble. Critically it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impacts studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with maximum four GCMs exhibiting opposite sign of the trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and with decreased relative humidity. Overall, the patterns of the analysed variables explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean Percentage Variance Explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires):41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables: near-surface temperature and precipitation, have PVE of 85.44 ± 4.37 and 14.98 ± 4.61, respectively. The dataset is available for download and researchers in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are already starting to use it. Besides allowing time-efficient assessment for non-standard future scenarios of changed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, it enables understanding of new representations of land surface processes, and including climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Current and potential future applications of such modelling system are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]