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• Water use efficiency evaluation based on 3D water footprint using SBM model. • Two scenarios for water use efficiency evaluation. • Analyzing the driving forces affecting water footprint change using the LMDI model. Water shortage and the conflict between water supply and demand have become the main constraints to the sustainable development of sustainable societies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. Scientific evaluation of water usage efficiency and clarification of the three-dimensional water ecological footprint (EF 3D) drivers are of great significance for the collaborative environmental management of BTH region. This paper firstly explores the evolution of water footprint breadth (EF size), depth (EF depth) and EF 3D in BTH region from 2004 to 2020. Using the super-efficient SBM (Slacks-Based Measure) model with EF 3D to evaluate the water use efficiency of BTH region in two scenarios. 22 impact factors were selected to analyze the dynamics affecting the change of EF 3D in BTH region by using the LMDI (Logistic Mean Divided Index) model. The results show that: (1) The water resources pressure of the three provinces are in the overload state from 2004 to 2020, and the EF 3D is at its maximum in 2011–2015. The EF depth of BTH region is fluctuating up and then fluctuating down around 2012, and the most serious capital consumption of water resources stock is in Tianjin. (2) The water resources in Hebei are all in inefficient use. The water resources in Tianjin are in a state of inefficient use in some study years, and since 2014, the water resources are in a state of fluctuating increase and high efficiency. As for Beijing, the water resources are in a state of efficient use in the study years. On the whole, scenario 2 better reflects the water resources utilization efficiency situation and is more in line with the real situation. (3) The water structure and endowment of water resources are pivotal factors positively influencing the EF 3D. To mitigate EF 3D and achieve sustainable utilization of water resources, both Hebei and Tianjin have ample room for progress in elevating agricultural water-saving technologies, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing water usage patterns. Agricultural water consumption is no longer the primary driver of water resource depletion in Beijing, necessitating focused attention on the impact of external water diversions in terms of local water displacement, optimization of water usage structures, and their role in supporting socio-economic development. Additionally, excessive reliance on external water diversions may entail associated risks that warrant consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Studying on dynamic ecological footprint (EF) in Jing-Jin-Ji from 1996 to 2020. • Six impact factors for driving EF is decomposed. • The EF in Jing-Jin-Ji will increase of 10% from 2015 to 2020. The ecological footprint (EF) describes the complex relationship between the eco-environment and economic development. EF dynamics can better reflect the appropriation of natural resources in various countries or regions compared with previous studies. This paper identified six dominant factors including population, per capita GDP, three major industrial added values, and energy consumption using grey correlation model for the EF changes of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region from 1996 to 2015. Then, we predicted the EF of the Jing-Jin-Ji region from 2016 to 2020 based on support vector machine model. (1) Since 1996, the EF and per capita EF of the overall Jing-Jin-Ji region have increased, of which those of Hebei Province and Tianjin increased while Beijing decreased. (2) Energy consumption dominated the EF of Jing-Jin-Ji region. The population of Beijing had a high correlation coefficient of 0.735 with the local EF, and the degree of correlation between the EF and per capita GDP was 0.812 in Hebei Province. In Tianjin, the added value of the tertiary industry was closely correlated with its EF, with a correlation coefficient of 0.741. (3) The EF of the Jing-Jin-Ji region will reach 778.30 million hectares by 2020, an increase of 10% compared with the value in 2015. Finally, suggestions for the development of industrial structure and energy consumption are listed for the sustainable development of Jing-Jin-Ji region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]