1. A robust optimization framework for forest biorefineries design considering uncertainties on biomass growth and product selling prices.
- Author
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Theozzo, Bruno and Teles dos Santos, Moises
- Subjects
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ROBUST optimization , *PRICES , *BIOMASS , *NET present value , *FOREST biomass , *EUCALYPTUS - Abstract
• A generic optimization model for biorefineries design overarching the entire supply chain, from biomass to market, that allows the modeling of complex biomass systems, such as forests. • A robust formulation that handles uncertainties on both biomass productivity and product selling prices. • An uncertainty model that allows the control of the degree of conservatism regarding negative uncertainties materialization. • A case study for a eucalyptus biorefinery implementation in Brazil producing paper-grade pulp, electricity, and lignin illustrating the capabilities of the proposed model. The dependence of biomass growth on uncontrolled environmental factors and the lack of confidence in product selling price estimation imposes challenges for the efficient design of biorefineries, especially for forest systems, which present complex and long-termed growth behavior. The present work proposes the expansion of an optimization framework for forest biorefineries design to handle uncertainties on both biomass productivity and product selling prices. A robust formulation is proposed under a box and polyhedral uncertainty set formulation allowing its conservatism degree to be controlled. A case study of a eucalyptus biorefinery in Brazil illustrates the model's capabilities. The canonical worst-case approach to uncertainties on selling prices leads to a null optimal Net Present Value (NPV) and, on biomass growth, leads to a design that uses a 70% excess of lands. Scenarios of a controlled degree of conservatism lead to designs closer to the uncertainty-free optimal NPV of 136 bi BRL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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