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Sugarcane ethanol is an alternative to fossil fuels that can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and offer socioeconomic benefits, but at the same time have a series of negative impacts. Brazil is the second largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, with this production predicted to almost double over the next 15 years. However sugarcane ethanol production in the country has been shown to interact with a range of ecosystem services. It is only when such interactions are understood that we can fully determine the potential trade-offs, synergies and sustainability outcomes of biofuel production in the country. This paper explores the local perceptions about the impacts of sugarcane production on ecosystem services in two municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo with significant sugarcane production: Capivari and Rancharia. Impact perceptions have been elicited through interviews with local residents, with the results showing that perceptions vary between the two study sites and are affected considerably by the different local experiences with sugarcane production. For example, although sugarcane farming has been traditionally performed in Capivari, it has been Rancharia that has experienced more recently a rapid sugarcane expansion that has caused considerable changes in land use and farming patterns. Interview results also suggest that the negative effects of sugarcane farming can be reduced through the adoption of good agricultural practices and the enforcement of existing laws, as many respondents cited considerable improvements in ecosystem health from such actions. Assessing the perception of local communities such as the one reported in this paper can be crucial in designing policies and planning land uses that enhance the sustainability of biofuel production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shift from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy (bioeconomy) requires more efficient utilization of the biomass generated from agricultural production. This can be achieved through the cascading use of biomass, which also offers the potential of creating additional value from biomass by developing novel products. Taking sugarcane as a case study example, this paper aims to analyze how well Brazil, the world’s leader in sugarcane production, is positioned to reach these goals. The paper combines two conceptual tools: one is the ‘biomass-based value web’, which was developed as an extension of the value chain concept with the aim to capture the links within and between value chains that arise from the cascading and joined use of biomass. The other concept is that of the ‘national innovation system’ (NIS), which serves to identify the different types of actors involved in the biomass value web and the linkages between them. For empirical data collection, the study combined three methods: a mapping of the physical biomass flows in the value web, in-depth interviews with the actors involved, and the application of the ‘Net-Map’ tool to identify the actors in the NIS and their linkages. The findings show that the development of Brazil’s international competitiveness in sugar and ethanol was based on political incentives that resulted in a strong network of institutions that focused on these two products. However, to become a front-runner in the future bioeconomy, the existing innovation network needs to be expanded. In particular, it is important to integrate national and international private sector organizations. The findings also suggest that industries need stronger incentives to collaborate with knowledge institutions. Long-term consistent policies and funding opportunities for risky investments are also required to further strengthen Brazil’s innovation network to meet future opportunities and challenges of the bioeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ethanol production chain is a complex system with a considerable number of actors and relationships. While Brazil stands out as a major producer of sugarcane ethanol, the production model in the north-eastern and southern regions is typically formed by small and medium production units, mostly associated to family-farming and associative production. This feature changes the relationships and profiles of the production chain, requiring understanding for the development of appropriate environmental, political, economic, social, ethical, and technological actions. This paper systemically maps variables that act in ethanol production chain in Southern Brazil, seeking to understand the interrelationships among its actors. Data collection was based on a review of the technical and academic literature and semi-structured interviews with different experts and actors of the chain. Systems dynamics diagrams model how the chain is configured and the main cause-effect interrelationships between the actors identified. Scenario analysis supports the analysis and discussion of the modelled context, seeking to contribute to the discussion about the competitiveness and economic sustainability of biofuel chains integrating associative production and family-farming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in global demand for ethanol has caused an expansion of ethanol mills into new areas to increase supply. Ethanol mills are supply-oriented firms; thus, they seek locations near agricultural feedstocks to ensure access and to reduce transaction costs. In Brazil, the rise of ethanol production has been more significant in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. Expansion of the sugarcane ethanol industry into this new frontier is a challenge because sugarcane is not a traditional crop in this region. The purpose of this paper is to understand the factors determining the location decision of ethanol mills in new producing areas. For the analysis, we focus on the new sugarcane ethanol plants in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, we developed a probit and a spatial autoregressive probit model that incorporates agricultural conditions, distance to markets, infrastructure, and policy. The results indicate that counties with agricultural tradition have a higher probability of a mill locating there (0.0918). The presence of rural syndicates in a county increases the likelihood of a mill deciding to locate in that county by 0.083. The county's distance to an operating mill in 2002 decreases in 0.00006 the probability of a new mill locating in that county. Policymakers should focus on policies that promote the institutional organization of producers, development of the transportation infrastructure, and utilize the agricultural tradition to attract new mills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has a long history of sugarcane development and since the 2000s has undergone a significant increase in land cultivated with sugarcane. Policy-driven demand and a growing international market mean that sugarcane cultivation in Brazil is expected to increase in the coming years. Rising land prices and strengthened environmental legislation in São Paulo state – where the bulk of production occurs – have led farmers and investors to seek new land to cultivate. As a result, the Centre- West region, including the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, has become an epicentre for sugarcane expansion in Brazil. While the social, economic and environmental impacts of sugarcane have been well documented for the state of São Paulo, much less is known about these impacts in new sugarcane frontier regions. This paper addresses an important gap in the literature through an assessment of the relationship between human development and presence or absence of a sugar mill in municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul. Drawing on the UN Human Development Index and the Social Responsibility Index of São Paulo, this paper develops a method to examine the relationship between the presence of sugarcane processing mills and human development at the municipal level in Mato Grosso do Sul. The paper finds evidence that municipalities with a mill perform relatively better in terms of human development than those without, but that municipalities with mills already performed relatively better than those without. This raises important questions about how are and where the socio-economic benefits of sugarcane materialise. • Mato Grosso do Sul is an epicentre of sugarcane expansion in Brazil. • Investigates the relationship between human development and presence of a sugarcane mill. • Develops a measure of human development for municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul. • Finds evidence of a relationship between sugar mills and municipal development. • Preference for establishing mills in the most developed municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 7% of Brazilian electricity is generated from sugarcane biomass. Although this scenario is relatively optimistic when compared to the fossil-based energy matrix of other nations, there is a clear opportunity of expanding bioelectricity production in the country even more. Recent changes in the environmental legislation are progressively prohibiting burning before sugarcane harvesting in Brazilian Center-South region. Consequently, straw (i.e., sugarcane tops, dry and green leaves) has become available in most of the sugarcane fields. When considering the low availability of capital to invest in large-scale greenfield projects currently in Brazil, this paper focuses on retrofit investments, i.e., those related to existing sugarcane mills aiming to increase electricity production with incremental investments. This study is based on the Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery framework that is developed in the Brazilian Biorenewables National Laboratory (LNBR/CNPEM). This simulation framework integrates both agricultural and industrial models to anticipate the impacts of biorefineries on different sustainability aspects. In this paper, process-based models are used to represent incremental changes caused by sugarcane straw recovery adopting the integral harvesting system. The techno-economic analysis shows that the internal rates of return (IRRs) of different alternatives depend on the conditions assumed in the sensitivity analysis. The main parameters assessed in the sensitivity are related to industrial plant scale, straw transport distance, industrial operating period, dry-cleaning system (DCS) efficiency and electricity prices. In the best incremental scenarios (operation during the offseason), IRRs ranged from 35 to 69%, 44–83%, and 54–99% per year when recovering straw in mills with original crushing capacities of 2, 4 and 8 million tons of sugarcane per year, respectively. This analysis ratifies that the economic feasibility increases as much as industrial scale increases; also, the system benefits from shorter straw transport distances. In general, higher DCS efficiencies can improve the economic viability, although some non-linear effects can be observed under specific conditions of the industrial operation. From all variables tested in the simulation, electricity price is one of the most sensitive parameters affecting the economic viability of straw recovery projects. • A process simulation of electricity production from sugarcane straw is performed. • Sensitivities of both agricultural and industrial parameters were simulated. • Techno-economic analysis of bioelectricity production scenarios were carried out. • Industrial operation period and electricity price were the most sensitive parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an economic outlook of the ethanol industry in Brazil considering different biomass feedstocks and different industrial processing options. A spreadsheet model was designed to account for different feedstocks and industrial processes, and expected trends in biomass yield, sugar- and fibre content, industrial scale and efficiency. Sugarcane and energycane cultivation costs may be reduced from 35 US$ 2010 /TC in 2010 to 27 US$ 2010 /TC and 22 US$ 2010 /TC in 2030 respectively. Eucalyptus and elephant grass cultivation costs could be reduced from 32 to 23 US$ 2010 /tonne wet and 38 to 26 US$ 2010 /tonne wet for eucalyptus and elephant grass. Total ethanol production costs of first generation processing may decrease from 700 US$ 2010 /m 3 in 2010, to 432 US$ 2010 /m 3 in 2030. First generation ethanol production costs may decrease by reduced feedstock costs, increase in sugar content, utilization of cane trash, and use of sweet sorghum. Furthermore, the improvement in industrial efficiency of the first generation process, increasing industrial scale and change to an improved technology are other measures. For second generation technology utilizing eucalyptus, the total ethanol production costs could be strongly reduced to 424 US$ 2010 /m 3 in 2030. Costs reduction measures for second generation industrial processing include reduced feedstock costs, increasing industrial efficiency and scale, and a change to more advanced industrial process. Overall, biomass yield, increase in sugar content of sugarcane, and improved industrial efficiency are important parameters in total ethanol production costs. Ongoing RD&D effort and commercialization of second generation industrial processing may result in the lowest ethanol production costs for second generation processing in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Modeling interdependency between production and investment decisions is critical. • Investment in anaerobic digestion for vinasse treatment is advisable. • Second-generation ethanol via hydrolysis of surplus bagasse is still uncompetitive. • Long-term electricity contracting could hedge the risks accrued from investment. The past decades have seen a diversification of the sugarcane industry with the emergence of new technology to produce bioenergy from by-product and waste process streams. Given Brazil's ambitious goal of reducing green-house gas emissions by over 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, it is of paramount importance to develop reliable decision-making systems in order to stimulate investment in these low-carbon technologies. This paper seeks to develop a more accurate optimization model to inform risk-conscious investment decisions for bioenergy generation capacity in sugarcane mills. The main objective is for the model to enable a better understanding of how Brazilian government policies, such as the electricity price in the regulated market, may impact these investments, by taking into account the uncertainty in sugar, ethanol and spot electricity markets and the interdependency between production and investment decisions in terms of saleable product mix. The proposed methodology combines portfolio optimization theory with superstructure process modeling and it relies on simple surrogates derived from a detailed sugarcane plant simulator to retain computational tractability and enable scenario analysis. The case study of an existing sugarcane plant is used to demonstrate the methodology and illustrate how the model can assist decision-makers. In all of the scenarios assessed, the model recommends investment in extra bioelectricity capacity via the anaerobic digestion of vinasse but advises against investment in second-generation ethanol production via the hydrolysis of surplus bagasse. Furthermore, the decision to upgrade the cogeneration system with a condensation turbine is highly sensitive to the electricity price practiced in the regulated market, capacity constraints on the sugar-ethanol mix, and the accepted level of risk. Another key insight drawn from the case study is that recent market conditions have favored a production focused on the sugar business, making it challenging for policy-makers to create attractive scenarios for biofuels. Long-term electricity contracting appears to be the main hedging strategy for de-risking other products and investments in the sugarcane business, provided it is priced adequately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the 2010 to 2015 crisis in Brazil's sugarcane sector, mainly caused by government mandated fuel price ceilings, the sector has entered a new growth cycle spurred by implementation of the " RenovaBio " program in 2017. The government created RenovaBio to achieve two overarching goals: increase 2028 ethanol output by roughly 53% and incrementally increase this biofuel's share in the national energy matrix to meet GHG reduction targets established at the Paris Climate Conference - COP21. The study presented in this paper addresses the expansion of mill output to meet expected future demand by 2028 through application of a mixed-integer linear optimization model to (1) determine the amount of additional sugarcane production and mill processing capacity required to meet expected 2028 Brazilian ethanol and sugar demand and (2) optimize the location of this additional capacity to minimize production and transportation costs through the multimodal transportation network. Modeling results estimate that 151,106 t of additional sugarcane processing capacity is needed to meet forecast 2028 Brazilian demand for 41,106 m³ of sugarcane ethanol and 49,106 t of sugar. Expanded mill output will require that sugarcane cultivation increase over an additional 6% of the area defined by Brazilian Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning regulations as suitable for sugarcane cultivation. Following the model's recommended optimal spatial distribution of 2028 mill processing capacity, their output can be produced and transported at a total cost of US$ 458.65/m³ of ethanol and US$ 304.27/t of sugar, slightly below 2016 minimum total costs. • Optimal location of sugarcane crushing capacity in Brazil to meet estimated 2028 demand for ethanol and sugar. • MILP model applied to investigate the best locations for greenfield sugarcane mills. • Spatial optimization of sugar and ethanol supply and interregional freight flows through the multimodal network in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]