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• Prophet Model provides understanding of the number of people affected daily by this disease. • The imposed interventions are reflected by five significant changepoints detected by the model in the growth curve of India. • The model forecasts90 days future growth trend and finds the peak time for all the six countries and six states of India. • The model has achieved around 85% MAPE for all the six countries and the six states of India. Covid-19 disease caused by novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly contagious epidemic that originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China in late December 2019. World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19 as a pandemic on 12th March 2020. Researchers and policy makers are designing strategies to control the pandemic in order to minimize its impact on human health and economy round the clock. The SARS-CoV-2 virus transmits mostly through respiratory droplets and through contaminated surfacesin human body.Securing an appropriate level of safety during the pandemic situation is a highly problematic issue which resulted from the transportation sector which has been hit hard by COVID-19. This paper focuses on developing an intelligent computing model for forecasting the outbreak of COVID-19. The Facebook Prophet model predicts 90 days future values including the peak date of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 for six worst hit countries of the world including India and six high incidence states of India. The model also identifies five significant changepoints in the growth curve of confirmed cases of India which indicate the impact of the interventions imposed by Government of India on the growth rate of the infection. The goodness-of-fit of the model measures 85% MAPE for all six countries and all six states of India. The above computational analysis may be able to throw some light on planning and management of healthcare system and infrastructure. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The SARS-CoV-2 is a type of coronavirus that has caused the pandemic known as the Coronavirus Disease of 2019, or COVID-19. In traditional epidemiological models such as SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed), the exposed group E does not infect the susceptible group S. A distinguishing feature of COVID-19 is that, unlike with previous viral diseases, there is a distinct "asymptomatic" group A , which does not show any symptoms, but can nevertheless infect others, at the same rate as infected symptomatic patients. This situation is captured in a model known as SAIR (Susceptible, Asymptomatic, Infected, Removed), introduced in Robinson and Stillianakis (2013). The dynamical behavior of the SAIR model is quite different from that of the SEIR model. In this paper, we use Lyapunov theory to establish the global asymptotic stabililty of the SAIR model, both without and with vital dynamics. Then we develop compartmental SAIR models to cater to the migration of population across geographic regions, and once again establish global asymptotic stability. Next, we go beyond long-term asymptotic analysis and present methods for estimating the parameters in the SAIR model. We apply these estimation methods to data from several countries including India, and demonstrate that the predicted trajectories of the disease closely match actual data. We show that "herd immunity" (defined as the time when the number of infected persons is maximum) can be achieved when the total of infected, symptomatic and asymptomatic persons is as low as 25% of the population. Previous estimates are typically 50% or higher. We also conclude that "lockdown" as a way of greatly reducing inter-personal contact has been very effective in checking the progress of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a model based on mediative fuzzy logic in this COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 (novel coronavirus respiratory disease) has become a pandemic now and the whole world has been affected by this disease. Different methodologies and many prediction techniques based on various models have been developed so far. In the present article, we have developed a mediative fuzzy correlation technique based on the parameters for COVID-19 patients from different parts of India. The proposed mediative fuzzy correlation technique provides the relation between the increments of COVID-19 positive patients in terms of the passage of increment with respect to time. The peaks of infected cases in connection with the other condition are estimated from the available data. The mediative fuzzy logic mathematical model can be utilized to find a good fit or a contradictory model for any pandemic model. The proposed approach to the prediction in COVID-19 based on mediative fuzzy logic has produced promising results for the continuous contradictory prediction in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]