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Voluntary environmental arrangements generally coexist with State-based and private rules, creating a property rights system that legitimizes certain behaviors. In a world of positive transaction costs, legitimacy ensues from imperfect monitoring activities, opening room for opportunism. In this paper, we discuss how the existence of multiple rules in a scenario of high monitoring costs affects the performance of an environmental policy. We discuss the case of deferred prosecution agreements (TAC, acronym in Portuguese), which are voluntary arrangements designed with the goal of incentivizing slaughterhouses to monitor the environmental practices of ranchers in the Brazilian Amazon. More specifically, we study how the signature of a TAC agreement affects deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazônia Legal region at the municipality level. This paper adopts a difference-in-differences approach to analyze a sample of Brazilian municipalities between 2006 and 2017. Our results, which remain robust across alternative estimators and subsamples, show that the signature of a TAC agreement increases deforestation rates by 0.2 standard deviations. We argue that the signature of a TAC agreement, by creating an imperfect proxy for "good behavior" that enables both compliant and non-compliant organizations to access credit, may incentivize deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze 12,000 parcels in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes. • Scraped weekly, our data come from online advertisements of land sale offers. • Hedonic analysis reveals low net benefits from formal private property rights. • Environmental compliance with the Forest Code does not alter parcel prices. • Results highlight challenges to property entitlement and environmental compliance. Lack of property rights is associated with lower investment, development, and welfare. In the Brazilian Amazon, insecure property rights have historically led to civil conflicts and deforestation, which would be expected to provide incentives for landowners to seek formal title. In this paper, we construct a novel database of land prices in Brazil to measure the market value of formal title to land and compliance with environmental regulation. Using online advertisements of land sale offers scraped from a widely used seller's platform, we first estimate a hedonic model that regresses the last offer price on property attributes such as farm-level agricultural production, land characteristics, structure amenities, and capital equipment included in the offer, as well as spatial and temporal fixed effects. We use this hedonic model to examine how property rights and environmental compliance capitalize into land prices across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Our main results imply low net benefits from property rights and low net benefits from compliance with the central Brazilian regulation that aims to maintain forest cover, the Forest Code. Finally, we estimate a duration model that follows the sequence of weekly offers for a specific property until it sells. Our findings show that parcels compliant with the Forest Code sell 46 % faster in the Amazon, while entitled properties in the Cerrado sell 9 % faster, unless they are compliant with the Forest Code, which requires a substantial portion of the property to be under native vegetation cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We employ nearest neighbor matching to obtain a balanced sample of pixels from certified and non-certified forests. • We estimate Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) and Two-Way Fixed Effect Models (TWFE) with the matched pixel-level data. • Inviting oversight by FSC reduces the probability of deforestation in private properties designated for sustainable forest management. • The greatest potential of forest certification lies in regions with low governance capacity and high deforestation pressure. • Scaling up of certification in new areas can make real contributions to protecting forests and mitigating and adapting to climate change. In the American tropics, logging is almost always highly selective, leaving most of the forest standing and available for future harvest under sustainable forest management. However, forest that has been logged is often more accessible to deforestation agents such as farmers. Thus, areas legally designated for sustainable forest management in reality may be more susceptible to illegal deforestation. Third-party certification of sustainable forest management is one strategy for protecting such forest. In this paper, we estimate the effect of certification by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) on deforestation, drawing on data from the years 2001 to 2019. We observe strong selection effects resulting in systematic differences between certified forest areas and other forest areas designated for sustainable forest management, and we find that after controlling for those selection effects, inviting oversight by FSC reduces the probability of deforestation. Our study design compares forests "treated" with FSC certification to "control" forests designated for sustainable forest management but not (yet) certified in the two Brazilian states of Pará and Rondônia. Adopting pixel-based analyses, we first create a matched sample of treated and control pixels and then estimate GLMM models, with two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models as a robustness check. We find that where forest managers have obtained certification and thus invited oversight by FSC auditors, rates of forest loss are lower (although the results are not fully robust across regions). The estimated effects vary across regions, likely due to varying socioeconomic and policy contexts and competing land uses. We conclude that especially in settings of low governance capacity and high deforestation pressure, certification can contribute to long-term forest conservation by reducing deforestation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Looking beyond a normative analysis of oil palm expansion, this paper offers a nuanced analysis of landscape transformations in the Brazilian Amazonian region of Tomé-Açu. Based on quantitative and qualitative data deriving from interviews with key stakeholders, focus groups and surveys with smallholders and migrant workers, contextualized and cross-checked with observations between 2011 and 2017 and secondary sources, we discuss the processes and outcomes of Brazil's Sustainable Oil Palm Production Program (SPOPP). Despite its participatory component and innovative design, simultaneously tackling environmental, economic and social dimensions, the program underwent rapid structural change and suffered from discontinuity. A new boom and bust cycle emerged in the region, however, both "boom" and "bust" periods were marked by mixed outcomes. Notwithstanding the current governance shift characterized by absent state, reduced participation and disinvestment, local agency has been able to reorganize the sector on the ground and a transformed landscape emerged. However, under the current setting if expansion recommences there is no guarantee the sector will be able to avoid many of the socio-environmental problems experienced in the past. • SPOPP is an example of the emergence of participatory governance modes in the Brazilian Amazon. • SPOPP triggered a new boom and bust cycle in the researched region. • Outcomes of both cycles were mixed, from euphoria and criticism to disenchantment and reorganization. • Despite state withdrawal and reduced participatory governance the sector reconfigured under local and global drivers. • If expansion recommences there are several socio-environmental risks under the current governance shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • First approach for hydrological connectivity mapping using spectral similarity and machine learning. • Procedures for large training dataset generation for lake connectivity mapping. • L-CONNECT framework achieved 88% overall accuracy in connectivity mapping. • River-lake spectral similarity indices are reliable proxy for connectivity analysis. Hydrological connectivity based on water surface connectivity controls the water exchange between large rivers and their floodplain lakes, which occurs by channelized flow through floodplain areas and overbank flow, and it is relevant to sustain the ecosystem's health and biodiversity of floodplain waterbodies. Given the climate change impacts on floodplain aquatic habitats, further studies are needed to understand and quantify the river–lake connectivity and its temporal dynamics. However, few studies are dedicated to objectively estimating hydrological connectivity, and new commercial satellite datasets and machine learning approaches can advance the understanding of this important topic. This paper proposes a new framework for computing the hydrological connectivity of small floodplain lakes (river-Lake CONNECTivity or L-CONNECT) in the Amazon Juruá River. The L-CONNECT framework consists of spectral similarity analysis with machine learning in the river–lake system and three steps were implemented: (i) sampling process based on independent satellite-imagery visual interpretation; (ii) automated similarity features extraction from river-lake system; and (iii) training and validation of machine learning algorithm. A total of 552 3-m PlanetScope SuperDove imagery were acquired in 2020 and 2021 to perform our approach. In general, the L-CONNECT framework achieved 88% overall accuracy. However, not-connected lakes were not easily estimated. We found that the L-CONNECT framework managed to perform accurately over all lakes investigated independent on their distance to Juruá River channel (average accuracy of ∼ 86%), and that there was a low discordance (less than 30%) between the lakes' hydrological connectivity responses acquired by Sentinel-2 against PlanetScope data. The mapping results showed that lakes were more connected to the Juruá River during the 2021 (not-connected lakes rate of 28%) compared to 2020, which was explained by higher cumulative precipitation during January, February, and March of 2021. Finally, the new L-CONNECT framework proposed here can support hydrological connectivity mapping of small floodplain lakes by considering assumptions relative to the similarity between river and water spectra as a proxy for that. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Tropical secondary vegetation is of particular interest as carbon sinks, potential lands for agriculture and livestock expansion, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Until mid-2000s estimates of secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon indicated a progressive increase of this cover, however after 2010, only 1197 km2 of additional secondary vegetation were generated, while 42,040 km2 were converted into other land-covers. Meanwhile, deforestation rates progressively decreased to be around 6000 km2 in contrast to the peak of 27,772 km2 in 2004, what suggests that changes in land-cover dynamics with respect to deforestation may be related to a reduction in secondary vegetation. Hence, in this paper, we work with the hypothesis that, in a context of decreasing deforestation rates, the historic pattern of progressive accumulation of secondary vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon changed as a consequence of the re-conversion of this cover, as well as other land-covers relevant in the process of regeneration, into different land-covers that expanded in this period. Our focus was then to investigate, on a regional scale, the spatiotemporal patterns of secondary vegetation with respect to different land-covers in Pará based on (i) a quantitative analysis of transitions between land-covers, and (ii) on clustering patterns of secondary vegetation cover and their relations with clustering patterns of pastures, small-scale and industrial agriculture. We found that more secondary vegetation was converted into land-covers that expanded in the period i.e. clean pasture, mechanized agriculture, and palm oil, with secondary vegetation and land-covers important for regeneration (i.e. small-scale agriculture and regeneration with pasture) experiencing an overall reduction and contributing less to the concentration of secondary vegetation after 2010. Clusters of high values (hotspots) of secondary vegetation prevailed in the north, while clusters of low values (cold spots) prevailed in the south of Pará, a pattern that is explained by different histories of occupation and deforestation dynamics, as well as distinct regional land dynamics in the past decade. As a first contribution to understanding the dynamics of secondary vegetation in a context of decreasing deforestation rates, our results show that the increased pressure to halt deforestation had effects over the dynamics of this land-cover, as well as over land-covers relevant to regeneration. Highlights • The dynamics of secondary vegetation and of land-covers related to regeneration were affected by pressure to halt deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. • In a context of decreasing deforestation rates, more secondary vegetation was converted into clean pasture, mechanized agriculture, and palm oil while secondary vegetation and land-covers relevant to regeneration had an overall reduction, contributing less to the concentration of secondary vegetation. • Clustering patterns of secondary vegetation are explained by the past decade distinct regional land dynamics and by different historical dynamics of occupation and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use large scale spatially explicit modelling and case study based analyses to assess the links between recreational ecosystem services and the benefits for wellbeing of traditional livelihoods in the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that, at the scale of the Brazilian Amazon, associations between recreational ecosystem services and extractivist activities of Brazil nut and rubber are very weak with no significant differences regarding Brazil nut (p = 0.61) and rubber (p = 0.41) income across the different tourism development classes. However, qualitative analysis of the case studies reveals that where there are multifunctional livelihoods, recreational ecosystem services are indeed helping to enhance non timber forest product extractivist social values that otherwise would be suppressed by prevailing “cattle ranching” lifestyles. We therefore support innovative ways to make both recreational ecosystem services and non timber forest products extraction not merely a juxtaposition of activities, but integrated into multifunctional livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latin America's land-use and communal forests needs a better understanding through a lens of women. This research article aims to examine Latin America's secured individual land tenure legal reforms and communal rights in indigenous territories. Two empirical case studies are presented to assess the current dynamics of rural women's land title rights in coffee agroforestry under Colombia's new Formalización Propiedad Rural program, and indigenous Quechua women's communal forest land rights for indigenous foods like kañawa and quinoa farming in highland Bolivia. In doing so, it also gives an introduction to the five empirical research papers that are part of this Special Section edited by the author. The specific case studies are from the Brazilian Amazon, Bolivia's Gran Chaco area, Nicaragua's indigenous territories and two studies from Mexico – one from Oaxaca's central valley and the other is based on smallholder farming in Calakmul rural area. In conclusion, the author discusses the need to prioritise women's role in individual land rights and communal forest tenure in Latin American countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides the first analysis at the sub-municipality scale of the relationships between population densities and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2010. We use the database on deforestation published by the Brazilian space research center (INPE) and the population census data released by the federal geographical and statistical agency IBGE at their finest scale: the census tract level. By crossing the population density and deforestation variables, we identify ten human settlement patterns in the Amazon. There are low-low and high-high classes of population density and deforestation, but also low-high and high-low classes. This analysis helps understand the low overall relations in the Amazon for population and deforestation. We emphasize the expansion of large-scale agriculture and cattle ranching as causing the depopulation of rural areas while in many regions of the Amazon quite strong population densities coexist with relatively low extents of deforestation. Such findings stress the need to implement case-specific public policies in these regions in order to encourage human presence compatible with the conservation of forest cover and biodiversity. We also confirm the importance of the Amazon urbanization process, including the ‘discrete urbanization’ of rural areas, and the need to better recognize the distinct social and environmental problems of urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates fire spread through surface fuels of the Brazilian Amazon by using a three-dimensional, fully transient, physics-based computer simulation approach. Computer simulations are obtained through the solution to governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, heat transfer and thermal degradation of the vegetative fuel. Surface fuel fires composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs were numerically simulated and the calculated rate of spread was compared to findings from field observations. The importance of air humidity, vegetation temperature, moisture content, surface to volume ratio and bulk density was evaluated through the variation of each one individually in numerical simulation runs. Conclusions show that in the range of parameter variation considered, the most important parameters are the vegetation moisture, surface area to volume ratio, and bulk density. The vegetation initial temperature and air humidity, in the range of variation studied, did not influence the fire rate of spread. The numerical simulations also showed that the radiation process is very important and directly affects the fire rate of spread. Convection is less important because of the absence of external wind. The model is able to capture the main effects of a surface forest fire typical of the Amazon, and can be used as a numerical tool for studying such fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, discussions regarding scenarios methods for the Brazilian Amazon have been mostly explored from the sole perspective of deforestation concerns. This paper proposes an original approach using participatory scenarios as a method that may be able to put in perspective, at different levels of decision-making, a specific action of territorial planning in Pará State, Brazil. The method allows the dialogue between stakeholder representatives, government organizations and communities involved in that territorial process. The scenarios produced substantial and sometimes contradictory data: while they can be considered as a way of empowerment for the local communities, participatory scenarios also have their limits and may reveal structural forms of authority or domination within the project-promoting institutions and local communities. The information collected allows scientists of various areas (Modeling, Social Sciences), community leaders and managers to elaborate a reflection upon the levers that may condition the implementation of effective actions and public policies in territorial units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze transformations within a land reform settlement in the Brazilian Amazon, with special land-use regulations targeting forest conservation. We conducted long-term action research in the Virola-Jatobá Sustainable Development Project (PDS), where peasant farmers who were the early settlers of the area, and more recent occupants allied to illegal loggers, land grabbers and speculators adopt antagonistic positions and challenge respective entitlements towards land and forest. In this research we highlight issues of power asymmetry and social injustice when assessing how social relations and environmental conditions in the study area are affected by land use and forest conservation policies since year 2000, when the scheme was established. The PDS situation approached a collapse in late 2017 when the integrity of its forests and the beliefs and practices of vulnerable local residents were damaged. This case study empirically demonstrates that Amazon forest frontier systems have a limited capacity to endure extreme perturbations in the social and ecological interconnected domains. We argue that when a threshold is reached in systems featuring heavily institutionalized social asymmetries that constrain the action of vulnerable resource users, few conditions remain to reorganize the constituent setup through adaptive changes in the same regime or state. Reaching this stage will likely result in drastic changes that will lock the system into a pathway that compromises human wellbeing and the provision of ecosystem services. The fundamental nature of a tenurial scheme that combines social justice and environmental conservation tends thus to be lost for good, to enter a new regime with fewer options and novelties in social-ecological advances, reflecting the overall setbacks currently experienced in Brazilian policy. • Failed delivery and enforcement of land and forest policy in Amazon forest frontier. • Land tenure modality in a liminal status between environmental and agrarian reform regulations. • Social support for conservation affected by political and economic factors mediated by governmental agencies. • A new regime takes place with lower complexity in both social and ecological terms. • Outcomes reflect overall setback in Brazil's current social and environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Milk production (liters) and efficiency (liters/cow) are affected by green and blue water. • Reductions in rainfall may have disproportionately large negative impacts on the poor. • Investments in green water and blue water have the potential to off-set reductions in rainfall. • The poor are less able to invest in green and blue water and as a result may be left behind. Deforestation and global climate change are predicted to affect precipitation and agricultural productivity in the Amazon. Anecdotal evidence suggests that farmers are already being affected by changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, but there is little quantitative evidence on the mechanism by which precipitation affects production. This paper uses an innovative application of remote sensing and meteorological data to separate rainfall into green water (soil moisture that contributes to plant water use) and blue water (surface water), to estimate the impact of these water sources on the production and production efficiency of dairy in a mature colonization zone of the Brazilian Amazon. This approach allows us to draw inferences about different pathways through the precipitation-production causal chain and to link changes in precipitation with impacts on farm profits and welfare. We find that production and production efficiency are affected by green and blue water and that reductions in rainfall will have negative impacts that may disproportionally impact the poor. Our methods and results are informative to economists interested in this relatively new application of remote sensing data, to geographers interested in identifying the role of green and blue water in agricultural production, and more generally to researchers interested in the impacts of rainfall and water availability on small-scale producers in the Brazilian Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical deforestation has typically been characterized as a process with persistent environmental costs (in the form of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss) and short-lived economic benefits (in the form of one-off timber harvests and agricultural fertility boosts). However, this characterization is largely based on agronomic study of tropical soils, and does not fully capture the long-term agricultural potential of cleared land. Landowners can make investments to improve fertility and raise productivity, extending the time horizons over which agriculture is profitable. Whether they choose to make these investments depends on available technologies, the relative prices of inputs and outputs, and the cost of the alternative strategy of clearing additional forest. There is little evidence on how agricultural productivity in the tropics changes over time for individual farmers, because regional development processes confound changes in land productivity when aggregate data are used. Understanding the trajectory of returns to land after tropical deforestation matters because the effectiveness of policies to limit deforestation, promote reforestation, and encourage agricultural intensification all depend on the values of forested and deforested land to farmers and the time horizons over which those values are maintained. This paper estimates the contributions of forested, newly-deforested, and long-deforested land to total property values reported by smallholders in established agrarian settlements in the western Brazilian Amazon. We find—during a decade in which the Brazilian government significantly strengthened its enforcement of forest laws—that deforested land retained its value, the value of forested land increased relative to cleared land, and the value of newly cleared land declined. • We estimate the trajectory of land values after land is converted from forest to agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon. • Deforested land has retained its value over periods of more than 15 years after deforestation. • The relative value of standing forest increased during a period of stronger forest protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Consolidated rural areas (CRA) in the Amazon are areas occupied prior to July 2008. • A CRA map is required to implement the Rural Environmental Registry in Mato Grosso. • The CRA map was produced by interpretation of high resolution remote sensing images. • Validation metrics confirmed the reliability of the CRA map for Mato Grosso state. Accurate land use mapping in the Amazon is crucial to support the implementation of environmental policies. The new Brazilian Forest Code published in 2012 defines a "consolidated rural area" (CRA) as an area within a rural property and occupied by humans prior to July 22, 2008. Environmental infractions that occurred before that date are granted amnesty and landowners are exempted from the obligation to restore the degraded areas. To assess the compliance of rural property owners with the environmental legislation, the Brazilian government created the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), for mandatory electronic self-declaration of all rural private properties. The successful implementation of the CAR relies on the accurate mapping of CRA before the reference date of July 2008. The objective of the present paper is to assess the accuracy of the 2008 map of consolidated rural areas (CRA2008) that is the result of a fruitful collaboration between a non-governmental organization (NGO), a state administration and academic institutions. The CRA2008 map was produced by photo-interpretation of high resolution remote sensing images and validated after comparison with 90 aerial photographs. The validation metrics (overall accuracy = 0.926, Kappa index = 0.851 and F -score = 0.924) confirmed the reliability of the CRA2008 map. Most errors identified were due to imprecision at the edges between CRA and native vegetation because of different spatial resolutions of the CRA2008 and the aerial photographs. Consequently, the results were slightly lower (although still high; Kappa = 0.835) in the Amazon biome where landscapes are more fragmented. Finally, in a context of severe criticisms expressed by national government leaders towards Brazilian research institutions and NGOs, our results clearly demonstrate the benefits of combining institutional efforts and of working in synergy to produce relevant information with the aim of ensuring the implementation of public environmental policies and thereby improving land use sustainability in the Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Size of deforestation was related to the forest compensation choice in Paragominas. • Land use activity type was not related to the forest compensation choice. • Purchase of forest land was more frequent than rental in compensation cases. • Prices of forest rental contracts lasting 15 years were equivalent to land prices. This paper explores farmers' motivations to participate in a market mechanism to come into compliance with the forest laws in Brazil. As of July 2008, farmers with deforestation beyond what is legally permitted can choose between compensating for illegal deforestation at another property or restoring this environmental debt in situ. The study analyzes the first real case of such a compensation market in the Amazonia, started in 2014 in the municipality of Paragominas, Pará. I explore the main features of the Paragominas compensation market in order to understand why farmers with forest deficits would opt for such a mechanism. In particular, the main question explored in this study is: what economic and environmental factors influence the choice to compensate rather than restore in properties with a legal reserve deficit in Paragominas? Results show that an increase in the percentage of illegal deforestation that occurred up to 2008 on a property is associated with an increase in the predicted probability of choosing compensation, when keeping agriculture as a land use, the property size, and the number of land uses in the property unchanged. The study also reveals that farmers with forest deficits may prefer to buy a forest area instead of renting for compensation if they have enough capital to invest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian Amazon contains the most active rainforest frontier in the world, and its socioeconomic, demographic and spatial dynamism has been a topic of interest for academics and policy makers for decades. In this paper, we use spatial statistical modeling to examine the context of migration in the Brazilian Amazon by investigating its socioeconomic, demographic, spatial and environmental heterogeneities at the municipal level between 2000 and 2010. First, we visualized the spatial distribution of net-migration, in-migration and out-migration rates among municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Then, we explored the presence of spatial autocorrelation using Global Moran ' s I Index, and use spatial modeling techniques to investigate the associations between response variables (in-migration and out-migration) and selected explanatory variables. We identified several in-migration frontiers in the region, especially in Center Mato Grosso and Southeast Pará, while out-migration seems more diffuse in the Amazonia territory. Global Moran ' s I scores indicate that most of the selected variables exhibit spatial dependence, and the spatial regression models present better estimates of the coefficients by incorporating the spatially lagged autoregressive parameter. Our results also confirm the spatial heterogeneity and multidimensional character of in-migration and out-migration in the Brazilian Amazon. Economic growth, regional inequality and the environmental dynamism of the rainforest frontier appear to be closely associated with the intensity of migration flows in the region. We also find that less-populated municipalities have a central role in regional migration dynamics, forming relevant in-migration frontiers and ensuring territorial robustness for migration in the region. • There are several in-migration frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. • Out-migration seems more diffuse in the Amazonia territory. • There is significant spatial patterning in in-migration and out-migration rates. • Socioeconomic and environmental variables are closely associated with migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]