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The process of carbon neutrality does have economic costs; however, few studies have measured the cost and the economic neutral opportunities. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate China's carbon neutrality path from 2020 to 2060 and analyzes its economic impact. This paper innovatively adjusts the CGE modeling technology and simulates the boundary of the Porter hypothesis on the premise of economic neutrality. The results show that the carbon neutrality target may reduce the annual GDP growth rate by about 0.8% in 2020–2060. To make the carbon pricing method under the carbon neutrality framework meet the strong version of the Porter hypothesis (or economic neutrality), China must increase its annual total factor productivity by 0.56–0.57% in 2020–2060; this is hard to achieve. In addition, the study finds that China's 2030 carbon target has little impact on the economy, but the achievement of the 2060 carbon neutrality target will have a significant effect. Therefore, the paper believes that the key to carbon neutrality lies in the coexistence of technological innovation and carbon pricing to ensure that we can cope with global warming with the lowest cost and resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through extensive data research and analysis, this paper comprehensively summarizes the status and key insights of global carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) development. It aims to gain a comprehensive understanding of the relevant policies, technologies, and security measures adopted by major countries in their CCS development processes. Furthermore, it explores the existing status and limitations of China's offshore development efforts, while providing valuable recommendations for enhancing China's offshore CCS initiatives, as well as serving as a reference for other nations worldwide. Offshore CCS plays a crucial role for China to achieve the development target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, due to its energy structure and industrial distribution. While China possesses significant offshore CCS potential, achieving commercialization still requires substantial efforts. To facilitate the process and draw insights from successful experiences in other countries, this paper illustrates the characteristics and generalizes the experience of offshore CCS industry practices in America, Europe and Japan, respectively. Furthermore, it is recommended that a new round of investigation into offshore CCS potential be conducted, while promoting integrated collaboration between geological surveying and marine scientific research. Additionally, further research on industrial policies and green financial strategies should be undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the carbon neutrality goals set post-Paris Climate Conference (COP21), this study delves into the relationship between green technology innovations, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China, spanning the period of 1990 to 2021. The objective of this paper is to creatively present the idea of a low-carbon digital economy from the viewpoint of digital technology. Utilizing the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, we scrutinize this relationship, employing unit-root testing to verify the integrative attributes of the variables, inclusive of structural break data. Further analysis using the bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing method corroborates the relationship between these key variables. The study reveals unidirectional co-integration over time among green technology innovations, renewable and non-renewable energy, per capita income, population, and CO2 emissions as per the Granger causality test. Interestingly, our findings suggest that while green technology innovation, per capita income, and renewable energy contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions, non-renewable energy consumption and population growth exacerbate them. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers in formulating comprehensive strategies to enhance environmental quality through the promotion of renewable energy and green technology innovations, with a specific emphasis on the Chinese context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China has proposed the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which will significantly alter its existing coal-based energy mix. Since coal is China's primary source of energy and the largest contributor to carbon emissions, coal reduction is an important measure toward carbon neutrality. In order to guarantee the stable development of economy and society in the process of coal reduction, the path and cost of coal reduction need to be studied in depth. Based on coal use in China, this paper examines and measures the stages and costs of coal reduction. It also gives a definition for coal reduction costs for the first time, including economic cost, environment and ecology cost, and health cost, as well as proposes a framework for analyzing the "full cost, full process, and full scenario". We measure the cost in combination with the KAYA formula, and take into account the time value of the cost. Based on the above measurement framework, we calculate the unit coal reduction cost and estimate the coal reduction cost between CNY 454.38 and 827.1 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry is the backbone of most countries, but its carbon emissions are huge and growing rapidly, constraining the achievement of global carbon-peaking and carbon-neutrality goals. China's carbon emissions are the highest in the world, and the construction industry is the largest contributor. Due to significant differences between provinces in pressure, potential, and motivation to reduce emissions, the "one-size-fits-all" emission reduction policy has failed to achieve the desired results. This paper empirically investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in China's construction industry and their decoupling relationship with economic growth relying on GIS tools and decoupling model in an attempt to provide a basis for the formulation of differentiated construction emission reduction policies and plans in China. The study shows that, firstly, the changes in carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the provincial construction industry are becoming increasingly complex, with a variety of types emerging, such as declining, "inverted U-shaped", growing, "U-shaped", and smooth fluctuating patterns. Secondly, the coefficient of variation is higher than 0.65 for a long time, indicating high spatial heterogeneity. However, spatial agglomeration and correlation are low, with only a few cluster-like agglomerations formed in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Bay, Northeast China, and Loess and Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau regions. Thirdly, most provinces have not reached peak carbon emissions from the construction industry, with 25% having reached peak and being in the plateau stage, respectively. Fourthly, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from the construction industry and economic growth, as well as their changes, is increasingly diversified, and most provinces are in a strong and weak decoupling state. Moreover, a growing number of provinces that have achieved decoupling are moving backward to re-coupling, due to the impact of economic transformation and the outbreaks of COVID-19, with the degraded regions increasingly concentrated in the northeast and northwest. Fifthly, we classify China's 30 provinces into Leader, Intermediate, and Laggard policy zones and further propose differentiated response strategies. In conclusion, studying the trends and patterns of carbon-emission changes in the construction industry in different regions, revealing their spatial differentiation and correlation, and developing a classification management strategy for low carbonized development of the construction industry help significantly improve the reliability, efficiency, and self-adaptability of policy design and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector accounts for over 40% of global energy consumption. The utilization of renewable energy systems such as the solar-assisted heat pump (SAHP) in buildings has been shown to improve building energy efficiency and achieve carbon neutrality. This paper presents a review of the research and development of solar-assisted heat pumps for buildings in China. It firstly introduces the different stages of solar-assisted heat pump research. Secondly, the research on different types of heat pumps, the core components of heat pumps, the computer software used, and the economic feasibility evaluation of solar-assisted heat pumps are presented. Thirdly, the application of SAHPs in practical projects is examined and relevant regulations, standards, and policies for solar-assisted heat pump development in China are highlighted. Finally, recommendations for the future development of solar-assisted heat pumps in China are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is a critical crisis threatening human survival and development. International organizations and countries worldwide are introducing policies and practices to achieve carbon neutrality. In China, numerous carbon neutrality policies have been established; however, a systematic understanding of the underlying policy logic is lacking. Using the institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework, this paper analyzes selected carbon neutrality policies in China. We conducted a bibliometric visualization analysis of the texts of 20 policies and matched their logic to the elements of the IAD framework. We established 90 keywords with occurrences of no less than 10 times in China's carbon neutrality policies. The network visualization analysis identified six clusters. We discuss implementation challenges of China's carbon neutrality policies, address the policy implementation, and finally outline impacts on China's carbon neutrality governance. This study responds to the global concern over China's carbon neutrality commitments by clarifying the institutional logic of China's policies and actions. This study could provide a reference for countries worldwide that are designing and introducing carbon neutrality policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a learning curve model to project the cost of electrolyzers and its subsequent impact on hydrogen market, aligning with a premise that the market demand is proportional to the cost of hydrogen. In a case study of China's hydrogen market, projecting from 2020 to 2060, we observed substantial differences in market evolution compared to exponential growth scenarios. Contrary to exponential growth scenarios, China's hydrogen market experiences faster growth during the 2020–2040 period rather than later. Such differences underscore the necessity for proactive strategic planning in emerging technology markets, particularly for those experiencing rapid cost decline, such as hydrogen. The framework can also be extended to other markets by using local data, providing valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and developers engaged in the hydrogen market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions pose a significant challenge to sustainable development, particularly for China, which is the world's largest emerging economy and is under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce emissions amid escalating human activities. The variation in economic development levels and carbon sequestration capacities among its provinces poses a significant hurdle. However, previous research has not adequately examined this dual discrepancy from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, resulting in a lack of differentiated management of forest carbon sinks across diverse regions. Therefore, to mitigate this discrepancy, this study presents an assessment methodology that analyzes over 100 types of natural and plantation forests using forest age and biomass expansion factors. This study presents a model that can significantly support the efforts of both China and the whole world to achieve carbon neutrality through the improved management of forest carbon sinks. This approach facilitates the assessment of carbon offsets required to meet reduction targets, the development of a provincial framework for carbon intensity and sequestration, and the exploration of their potential for trading markets. Analysis is conducted using MATLAB. Key achievements of this study include the following: (1) The collection of a comprehensive carbon stock dataset for 50 natural and 57 plantation forest types in 31 provinces from 2009 to 2018, highlighting the significant role of new forests in carbon sequestration. (2) The development of a provincial carbon status scoring system that categorizes provinces as carbon-negative, carbon-balancing, or carbon-positive based on local forest sink data and carbon credit demand. (3) The formulation of the carbon intensity–carbon sink assessment (CISA) model, which suggests that provinces with middle- to upper-middle-level economies may have a prolonged need for carbon sink credits during their peak carbon phase. Furthermore, the results show that carbon trading may benefit Guangxi and Yunnan, but may also bring opportunities and risks to Hunan and Hubei. To address regional imbalances, this study advocates tailored policies: carbon-negative and carbon-balancing provinces should enhance carbon sink management, while carbon-positive provinces must focus on energy structure transformation to achieve sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driven by global targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems are expected to undergo fundamental changes. In light of carbon neutrality policies, China is expected to significantly increase the proportion of hydrogen and electricity in its energy system in the future. Nevertheless, the future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. To explore the potential ramifications of varying growth scenarios pertaining to hydrogen and electricity on the energy landscape, this study employs a meticulously designed bottom-up model. Through comprehensive scenario calculations, the research aims to unravel the implications of such expansions and provide a nuanced analysis of their effects on the energy system. Results show that with an increase in electrification rates, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over a certain planning horizon could be reduced, at the price of increased unit reduction costs. By increasing the share of end-use electricity and hydrogen from 71% to 80% in 2060, the unit carbon reduction cost will rise by 17%. Increasing shares of hydrogen could shorten the carbon emission peak time by approximately five years, but it also brings an increase in peak shaving demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the promotion of the "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peak" initiatives, green credit plays an important role in helping enterprises to change their high-pollution, high-energy-consumption production methods and establishing a sound green, low-carbon, and circular economic system. This study used spatial correlation analysis and a fixed effects SDM model to examine the spatiotemporal and causal relationship between green credit levels and enterprise green technology innovation in 271 prefecture level cities in China from 2013 to 2021. It found that (1) green credit and green technology innovation levels are both highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and exhibit spatial correlation characteristics. The main types of agglomeration are high–high and low–low agglomeration. (2) Green credit has a significant enhancing effect on green technology innovation in enterprises, and this conclusion still holds after robustness and endogeneity tests. (3) There is significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of green credit on green technology innovation, mainly concentrated in the central and western regions. (4) Green credit can significantly increase enterprise R&D investment and enhance the level of green technology innovation through this channel. Finally, some policy implications are provided to the decision-making departments that can be used for reference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's forest ecosystem plays a crucial role in carbon sequestration, serving as a cornerstone in China's journey toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Yet, previous research primarily emphasized climate change's influence on forest carbon sequestration, neglecting tree species' suitable area changes. This study combinates the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model (LPJ) and the maximum entropy model (MaxENT) to reveal the coupling impacts of climate and tree species' suitable area changes on forest aboveground biomass carbon (ABC) in China. Key findings include the following: (1) China's forests are distributed unevenly, with the northeastern (temperate coniferous broad-leaved mixed forest, TCBMF), southwestern, and southeastern regions (subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, SEBF) as primary hubs. Notably, forest ABC rates in TCBMF exhibited a worrisome decline, whereas those in SEBF showed an increasing trend from 1993 to 2012 based on satellite observation and LPJ simulation. (2) Under different future scenarios, the forest ABC in TCBMF is projected to decline steadily from 2015 to 2060, with the SSP5-8.5 scenario recording the greatest decline (−4.6 Mg/ha/10a). Conversely, the forest ABC in SEBF is expected to increase under all scenarios (2015–2060), peaking at 1.3 Mg/ha/10a in SSP5-8.5. (3) Changes in forest ABC are highly attributed to climate and changes in tree species' highly suitable area. By 2060, the suitable area for Larix gmelinii in TCBMF will significantly reduce to a peak of 65.71 × 104 km2 under SSP5-8.5, while Schima superba Gardner & Champ and Camphora officinarum in SEBF will expand to peaks of 94.07 × 104 km2 and 104.22 × 104 km2, respectively. The geographic detector's results indicated that the climate and tree species' suitable area changes showed bi-variate and nonlinear enhanced effects on forest ABC change. These findings would offer effective strategies for achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality is a key human endeavor to deal with global climate while China is the country producing the most publications on carbon neutrality. However, what are the focuses of carbon-neutrality research in China? To answer such an important question, this study adopts a bibliometric approach to analyze carbon-neutrality journal publications from China-based researchers during the period of 2008–2022 using CNKI and Scopus. Results showed that carbon-neutrality publications in Chinese and English journals by Chinese-based researchers increased from 4 in 2008 to 2879 in 2022. In Chinese journals, X.D. Hao was the most productive author with 10 publications. In English journals, Y.K. Zhou was the most productive author with 14 publications. As a whole, the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution with 376 publications. Co-occurrence of keywords analysis revealed seven themes in Chinese journal articles, namely, "carbon neutrality and climate change", "energy transformation", "peak carbon emission", "carbon emission and low carbon economy", "realization path in China", "hydrogen energy and clean energy", and "green finance and sustainable development". In English journals, three major clusters were formed—"carbon, carbon neutralities, emission control, and energy utilization", "carbon dioxide, carbon neutrals, biomass, and electrocatalysts", and "China, carbon neutrality, sustainable development, and economic development." Most extant publications focused on policy and technological development. Emphasis shall be paid to social change and changes in people's behavior, sectoral carbon emissions, and carbon leakage in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most densely populated, economically developed, and outwardly open urban agglomerations in China, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration is a key player in achieving China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This study analyzes low-emission development by examining the evolutionary patterns of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions, using the latest available data from 2000 to 2020. Here are the main findings: (1) We found a significant fluctuation in the decoupling statuses between economic advancements and CO2 emissions within the PRD domain. Predominantly, a weak decoupling scenario was observed, where economic proliferations were paralleled by nearly equivalent increments in CO2 emissions. (2) The growth rate of carbon emissions increased significantly relative to economic expansion during 2015–2020, especially pronounced in cities such as Guangdong, Zhuhai, Foshan, and Dongguan. This delineates the persistent challenges in steering towards a pathway of energy conservation and emission abatement in the region. (3) Furthermore, a differential role of elasticity factors was noted across cities: Guangzhou and Shenzhen witnessed a significant influence of energy-saving elasticity in fostering a decoupling between economic surge and CO2 emissions, whereas in other cities, the emphasis shifted towards emission-reduction elasticity as a more vital determinant. The results of this study are of great significance for guiding policy makers and stakeholders in urban clusters across China and in similar regions globally to achieve low carbon development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban public buildings carbon emissions exhibit an upward trend and have a large potential in carbon emission reduction. The analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors for urban public buildings carbon emissions is essential in formulating effective policies for carbon reduction, meeting commitments to peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. This study takes China's urban public buildings carbon emissions as the research object, employing methods such as spatial autocorrelation analyses, kernel density estimation analyses, and the LMDI decomposition methods to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and regional disparities in carbon emissions from 2006 to 2019. Furthermore, it quantifies the contributions of driving factors to the spatiotemporal changes in urban public buildings carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) Urban public buildings carbon emissions among provinces are consistently increasing, indicating an overall upward trend. The spatial distribution highlights significant regional disparities. (2) The spatial characteristics of urban public buildings carbon emissions were basically stable. The eastern coastal regions demonstrate a high-high cluster, while the western regions exhibit a low-low cluster. The overall cluster evolution showed a decreasing trend from east to west. (3) Per capita urban public building area, economic density, urbanization rate, and population size serve as driving factors for carbon emissions from urban public buildings, while energy efficiency and energy consumption intensity act as inhibitory factors. The findings of this research can assist policymakers in getting a deeper comprehension of urban public buildings carbon emissions and providing a scientific basis to formulate appropriate carbon emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a global move toward being "carbon neutral". Reducing the use of coal to generate power has become an inevitable choice for many countries when transforming their energy structures. Many countries have proposed phasing out coal. China is a major energy producing and consuming country and intends to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. China has repeatedly emphasized coal reduction, but has not explicitly proposed phasing out coal, due to the influence of local governments, coal-related enterprises, and the public. This paper explores whether China could declare a "coal phase-out", and the possible reasons for doing so, by constructing an evolutionary game model with two correlations. MATLAB was used to simulate the model results to determine the effectiveness of the fractal results of the model, and the entropy method was used to calculate the development level of "coal phase-out" related indicators in China and Germany. The results show that: (1) The government can phase out coal only when coal-related enterprises and the public can benefit from reducing coal production and consumption. In addition, these benefits are needed to ensure stable economic and social development without affecting people's daily lives; (2) The development level of relevant indicators of "coal retreat" in China is lower than that in Germany. Based on these results, it is concluded that it is difficult for China to announce a "coal phase-out" at present. Faced with this reality, China should improve the efficiency of coal use, install carbon capture and storage facilities, vigorously develop renewable energy and reduce the share of coal in the energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smog pollution is a severe social and environmental concern for the space-heating regions in China due to fossil-intensive space heating. To reduce polluting emissions and improve social and environmental performance, local government agencies should choose adequate cleaner space-heating technologies based on diverse local conditions. This implies that all cleaner heating solutions should be considered, including low-emissions fossil fuel district heating and low-emissions fossil fuel decentralized heating as transitional technologies, as well as biomass and electricity-driven heat pumps as long-term solutions. However, stakeholders such as policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and house owners, often lack necessary information to assess the feasibility for installing adequate heating solutions at the local level. It is therefore necessary to establish a systematic method to evaluate each heating solution in various geolocations of China. This paper reviews the current heating situation in China and proposes a spatial system analysis method as a tool for heating-solution feasibility evaluation. By applying the spatial system analysis method, a qualitative investigation on the choice of heating solution in different regions of China is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality, the cointegration regression method and scenario analysis are utilized to forecast the long-term development trend of China's forest carbon sinks up to the year 2100 and their impact on carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) Under routine, accelerated, and strengthened ecological civilization scenarios (or RECS, AECS, and SECS, respectively), China's forests are projected to absorb 531–645 million tons of carbon by 2050 and 2.32–4.69 billion tons of carbon by 2100, respectively, and the value of the strengthened scenario will be markedly higher than that of the routine scenario. (2) Driven by slower growth in forestry investment, China's forest carbon sinks growth in all three scenarios peak by 2050 and then slow in a U-trend, with the growth rate in the SECS 0.45 percentage points higher than that of AECS, and the growth rate in the AECS 0.44 percentage points higher than that of RECS. (3) Under SECS, forest carbon sinks can help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal in 2054 (before the target date of 2060) with cumulative forestry investment of 53.3 trillion yuan and an annual investment growth rate of about 6.3%. Therefore, this study provides a deeper understanding than previous works of the important role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is currently recognized as the leading global energy consumer and CO2 emitter. A significant amount of carbon emissions can be attributed to urban public buildings. Establishing an equitable and efficient carbon emission allocation mechanism is a crucial step to meeting the ambitious targets in China's 2030 carbon peak plan. In this study, we estimate the total amount of CO2 emissions from urban public buildings by 2030 and propose a preliminary scheme of carbon quota assignment for each province. By means of applying the zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model, the carbon emission quotas allocation of urban public buildings in China's 30 provinces is proposed, and the corresponding pressure to reduce provincial carbon emissions is analyzed. The results indicate that Qinghai has the lowest carbon emission rate (0.01%) for urban public buildings, while Guangdong has the highest (9.06%). Among the provinces, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Tianjin face the least pressure in reducing carbon emissions from urban public buildings. On the other hand, Hebei, Beijing, and Anhui are under great pressure to decrease carbon emissions. Notably, Hebei is predicted to have the highest emission reduction requirement of 95.66 million tons. In terms of pressures on carbon emissions reduction for urban public buildings, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Tianjin exhibit the least pressure. Hebei, Beijing, and Anhui are facing intense pressure to decrease carbon emissions. These findings offer policymakers valuable insights into developing a fair and efficient carbon allowance allocation strategy, while also contributing to China's efforts to mitigate carbon emissions and combat climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green bonds have increasingly been utilized around the world as a source of financing for renewable energy development, designed with compliance requirements and measurable economic returns to investors, while mitigating climate change. However, the efficacy of green bond arranged in the emerging economies for financing renewable energy assets and how the underlying risks are managed have remained to be explored. The paper aims to examine the evolving green financial system sponsored by both public and private institutions in managing such risks within China's emerging economy. A case study of green financing for a bundle of wind power assets led by a state-owned enterprise (SOE) reveals an alternative approach by structuring public–private collaboration while stipulating market-based financial incentives to institutional stakeholders under a political economy. This institutional consortium is composed of a state development bank, a commercial bank, credit rating agencies, institutional and private investors, regional power purchasers, and carbon trading entities. Financial stakeholders' risk in such emerging sustainable investment is moderated by these participating institutions and structured "upsides" from carbon trading aligned with the framework of green finance and standards for green bond development. The results reveal the potentials of scaling up the development of renewable energy by adequately managing and sharing key risks, while allocating substantial funding into renewable energy projects under such a green financial system that is to be complementary with a scalable post COVID-19 economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fast-growing petrochemical industry is one of the largest energy consumers and emitters in China, exerting a strong impact on the national economic, energy and environmental systems. We provide a holistic picture of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions from China's petrochemical industry in 2012 through an environmental input-output life-cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). We combine two perspectives: (1) direct energy consumption and emissions, and (2) the indirect energy and emissions embodied and reallocated from other sectors in the supply chain to satisfy final demand in the petrochemical industry. Results indicate that the total of its direct and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions accounts for approximately 32% and 18% of China's industrial total, respectively, exerting high "influence" and "induction" with regards to the rest of the economic sectors. Most of the petrochemical industry's embodied energy and CO2 emissions comes from the "Production and Supply of Electric and Heat Power". We also identified five other sectors key to China's energy conservation and CO2 mitigation efforts due to their high influence and induction effects: "Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals", "Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products", "Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals", "Transport, Storage and Post", and "Mining and Washing of Coal". A systematic view of direct and indirect energy, environmental relationships, and the conveying effects among sectors is crucial for policymaking in China to achieve its energy and mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have adopted carbon regulatory policies in pursuit of carbon neutrality, which pose great transition risks for energy-intensive sectors. Using the panel data of 186 Chinese listed enterprises in the energy-intensive sector from 2007 to 2019, this study investigates the impact of green technology innovation on corporate operation risks. Empirical evidence shows that energy-intensive enterprises can effectively reduce their operational risks by participating in green technology innovation activities. This study also proves the mechanism of obtaining the support of public policies and enhancing investor confidence in the capital market, while the mechanism of improving recognition in the consumer market is insignificant. Climate policy uncertainty weakens the stabilizing effect of green technology innovation on operational risks. In addition, green technology innovation has a weak stabilizing effect on the operational risks of state-owned enterprises, while government subsidy can strengthen the stabilizing effect. Finally, the stabilizing effect of green technology innovation on operational risks varies by region, period, scale and ownership. This study and its findings provide theoretical insights for corporate risk management in energy-intensive industries and theoretical analysis for the realization mechanism of the market value of corporate green behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, China formally proposed the goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, which is called the dual-carbon strategy. In this study, we incorporated the dual-carbon strategy perspective into ecological product value (EPV) evaluation. The EPV is the sum of the final product and service value provided by regional ecosystems for human production and life. A significant uncertainty exists in evaluating the EPV. To bridge this gap, we explored the quantitative evaluation index system of EPV based on the dual-carbon perspective and conducted an empirical analysis relating to four subindexes (ecological protection, ecological products carbon neutral capacity transformation, ecological value, and ecological product value realization safeguard mechanism). The EPV in nine provinces of the Yellow River basin in 2020 was measured. The results showed that the total evaluation score of EPV realization in the Yellow River basin was relatively low, and the average scores of ecological product protection level, carbon neutrality capacity, value transformation level, and value realization guarantee mechanism were all at a low level. Overall, the protection level of ecological products and the guarantee mechanism to realize the EPV were relatively good. However, the carbon neutrality capacity and the value transformation level were relatively poor. From the spatial perspective, the value realization level of ecological products was roughly upstream region > downstream region > midstream region in the Yellow River basin. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the comprehensive evaluation index of EPV realization and analysis of the four subindexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal's green mining and scientific utilization is the key to achieve the national vision of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Clarifying the CO2 flow of coal production is the core part of decarbonization. This study uses an environmental extended multi-regional input–output (EEMRIO) model to analyze the impact of embodied emissions on the indirect CO2 emission intensity of coal production between China's coal mining sector and 141 countries/regions. It is found that the CO2 emission intensity of China's coal production was 34.14 gCO2/MJ in 2014, while the direct and indirect emission intensities were 16.22 gCO2/MJ and 17.92 gCO2/MJ, respectively. From 2007 to 2014, the direct emission intensity of China's coal production increased by 23%, while the indirect emission intensity decreased by 30%. The key material and service inputs affecting indirect carbon emissions of coal production in China are electricity service, metal manufacturing, chemical products, coal mining, and transport, which accounted for 85.5% of the total indirect emission intensity of coal production in 2014. Globally, a large portion of CO2 from Chinese coal production is emitted to meet foreign direct and indirect demands for material and service inputs. Policy implications related to this outcome are further discussed in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China issued the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2020, emphasizing the need to reduce its carbon intensity and achieve a carbon emission peak before 2030. In order to estimate the future path of carbon peak in China, a novel dataset was constructed to analyze 30 provinces in China, and found that the realization of carbon peaking in 2025 requires a reduction of 1.072 million tons of carbon emissions in 2025, at which point peak carbon emissions will be 11,008.4 million tons. Due to this energy gap caused by carbon emission reduction the total amount of clean electricity has reached 3600 billion kWh. In carbon emission allowance trading, provinces with large carbon emissions, like Jiangsu and Guangdong, prefer to buy carbon allowances, while those with small carbon emissions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia prefer to sell carbon allowances. In the energy trading market, the overall situation meets the 14th Five-Year Plan of west-east and north-south power transmission, except for Shanghai, Hainan, Hubei, and other provinces selling power, due to excessive power generation from a particular energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates China's forestry green technology innovation efficiency (FGTIE) using slack-based Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. This research endeavours to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of FGTIE in China and identify its influencing factors. The results demonstrate obvious spatial distribution differences among Chinese FGTIEs, with the southwestern region being relatively stable and the central and southeastern regions being more variable, revealing a general state of clustered development. FGTIE demonstrates a significant spatial correlation. The correlation intensity reveals a 'W'-shaped, 'down–up–down' trend, suggesting that a universal spatial pattern of FGTIE has not yet developed a steady state and that stable spatial aggregation characteristics among provinces are evident. The influencing factors of FGTIE are confirmed to have significant spillover effects. Increases in social security, foreign direct investment and environmental policy stringency will promote efficiency improvements in neighbouring provinces through positive spillover effects, and the economic development level and forestry scale will inhibit efficiency improvements in neighbouring provinces through negative spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of the implementation effect of the supply-side reform (SSR) in the industrial sector of China's provinces and the reasons behind them are of great significance for China to formulate relevant policies in the future. However, this work has not yet been carried out. Industrial development performance is closely related to energy and environmental efficiency (EEE), and the effect of the SSR implementation is directly reflected in EEE. This study fills this gap by analyzing the EEE of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2017 using data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index methods. The results show that the positive effect of China's implementation of SSR has emerged. This positive effect is mainly reflected in the implementation of measures such as reducing overcapacity, which has promoted the technological innovation of enterprises. However, the low management level and resource-allocation efficiency hinder the further improvement of the implementation effect of the SSR, which should be paid special attention to in China's future supply-side reform. In addition, we believe that in the context of China's high-quality development and carbon neutrality goals, the SSR should be given more connotations, which are to increase the requirements for strengthening green and low-carbon development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extensive and close economic linkages among different regions of China have effects not only on regional economic growth, but also on CO2 emissions and carbon leakage among regions. Taking Beijing as a study case, we constructed MRIO models for China's 30 provinces and municipalities for 2002, 2007 and 2010, to measure the embodied CO2 emissions in the interregional trade of China on regional and industrial levels to explore their changes over time, and to analyze the driving forces of the final demand-induced interregional CO2 emissions through an SDA model. Results showed that Beijing was a surplus region for embodied carbon and the net input embodied CO2 emissions were in industries with high CO2 emission coefficients, while the net output embodied carbon was in industries with low carbon-emission coefficients. Beijing's trade with non-Beijing areas led to an increase in the total CO2 emissions in China and a composite effect of Beijing and the efficiency effect of non-Beijing areas were the main effects behind the reduction of Beijing's input embodied carbon. The results have yielded important implications for China's CO2 emissions control: first, the embodied CO2 need be taken into consideration when formulating CO2 emissions control measures; second, CO2 emission reduction requirements should be reasonably distributed across the provinces to reduce carbon leakage in interprovincial trade; third, the consumption structure in the production chain needs to be moderately adjusted; and last but not least, financial and technical support for CO2 emissions control in the central and western provinces should be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China hosts over half of global coal-fired power generation capacity and has the world's largest coal reserves. Its 2060 carbon neutrality goal will require coal-fired electricity generation to shrink dramatically, with or without carbon capture and storage technology. Two macroeconomic areas in which the socioeconomic impact of this decline is felt are losses in jobs and tax revenues supported by thermal coal mining, transport and power generation. At the national level, under a 'baseline' (B) scenario consistent with China's carbon neutrality goal, labour productivity growth in coal mining implies that significant job losses will occur nationally in the medium term, even if all coal plants continue operating as planned. Jobs supported by the coal power industry would decline from an estimated 2.7 million in 2021, to 1.44 million in 2035 and 94,000 in 2050, with jobs losses from mining alone expected to exceed 1.1 million by 2035. Tax revenues from thermal coal would total approximately CNY 300 billion annually from 2021–2030, peaking in 2023 at CNY 340 billion. This is significantly less than estimated subsidies of at least CNY 480 billion, suggesting coal is likely a net fiscal drain on China's public finances, even without accounting for the costs of local pollution and the social cost of carbon. As coal plant retirements accelerate, from 2034 onwards, fiscal revenues begin to fall more rapidly, with rates of decline rising from 1% in the 2020s to over 10% a year by the 2040s. More aggressive climate policy and technology scenarios bring job and tax losses forward in time, while a No Transition policy, in which all currently planned coal plants are built, delays but does not ultimately prevent these losses. At the provincial level, China's major coal-producing provinces will likely face challenges in managing the localised effects of expected job losses and finding productive alternative uses for this labour. Governments of coal-producing provinces like Inner Mongolia, with an industry highly dependent on exports to other provinces, are more exposed than others to declining tax revenues from coal, and more insulated from job losses, given their high current degree of labour efficiency. Although their provincial revenues are likely to remain stable until the early 2030s under the B scenario, the possibility of increasing policy stringency underlines the need for revenue and skill base diversification. At the firm level, China's 'Big Five' state-owned power companies were responsible for over 40% of both jobs and tax revenues in 2021. The number of jobs supported by the activities of each of the largest ten firms, with one exception, will decline by 71–84% by the early 2040s, with the tax contribution of each declining by 43–69% in the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is the foundation of China's goals to reach its carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of CO2 emissions in China. First, we constructed a conceptual model of the factors influencing CO2 emissions, including economic growth, industrial structure, energy consumption, urban development, foreign trade, and government management. Second, we selected 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019 as research objects and adopted exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns and agglomeration characteristics of CO2 emissions. Third, on the basis of 420 data samples from China, we used partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to verify the validity of the conceptual model, analyse the reliability and validity of the measurement model, calculate the path coefficient, test the hypothesis, and estimate the predictive power of the structural model. Fourth, multigroup analysis (MGA) was used to compare differences in the influencing factors for CO2 emissions during different periods and in various regions of China. The results and conclusions are as follows: (1) CO2 emissions in China increased year by year from 2006 to 2019 but gradually decreased in the eastern, central, and western regions. The eastern coastal provinces show spatial agglomeration and CO2 emission hotspots. (2) Confirmatory analysis showed that the measurement model had high reliability and validity; four latent variables (industrial structure, energy consumption, economic growth, and government management) passed the hypothesis test in the structural model and are the determinants of CO2 emissions in China. Meanwhile, economic growth is a mediating variable of industrial structure, energy consumption, foreign trade, and government administration on CO2 emissions. (3) The calculated results of the R2 and Q2 values were 76.3% and 75.4%, respectively, indicating that the structural equation model had substantial explanatory and high predictive power. (4) Taking two development stages and three main regions as control groups, we found significant differences between the paths affecting CO2 emissions, which is consistent with China's actual development and regional economic pattern. This study provides policy suggestions for CO2 emission reduction and sustainable development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, The People's Republic of China proposed goals for peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, in the 15 counties (districts) of the Main Stream Area of the Yellow River Basin in Gansu that plays an important role in ecological protection and green development. Next the CO2 equivalents were converted according to the IPCC2 standard, the total agricultural GHG emissions was calculated, the relationship with the agricultural output value was analyzed, and the discretization of the space was analyzed by the coefficient of variation and standard deviation. Firstly, the total agricultural GHG emissions in 15 counties (districts) of the Main Stream Area of the Yellow River Basin increased 55.54% in 2000–2019, and 2.35% annually, roughly divided into three stages: the rapid growth period (2000–2008), the slow decline period (2009–2014) and the rapid decline period (2015–2019). The economic efficiency is significantly improved, with an average annual decline of 6.49%, roughly divided into three stages: the slow-descent stage (2000–2004), the period of slow-growth stage (2005–2008) and the period of fast-decline (2009–2019). Secondly, based on the characteristics of the total GHG emissions, Maqu County has the largest GHG emissions increase, from 26.8842 kt in 2000 to 38.9603 kt, in 2019, an increase of 44.92%, while the smallest GHG emissions, in Anning District, decreased 87.33% from 111 t in 2000 to 14.1 t in 2019; In the rate of increase in the total GHG emissions, Dongxiang County had the largest rate of increase from 2000 to 2019, an increase of 160.28% and an average annual increase of 4.90%. The smallest rate of decrease in GHG emissions was seen in Chengguan District, where they decreased 92.11% from 2000 to 2019, an average annual decrease of 11.93%. The characteristics of agricultural GHG emissions intensity is a significant declining trending and agricultural production efficiency has been significantly improved. Finally, to provide a basis for the formulation of differentiated agricultural energy conservation and emissions reduction policies, reduce agricultural GHG emissions intensity and reduce the use efficiency of resources by formulating differentiated emission targets, tasks and incentive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]