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Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on the global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in the island's economy and also contributes to the livelihood of smallholders—the majority of whom operate the industry's coffee farms. While climate model projections suggest that Jamaica will continue to experience a warming and drying trend, no study has assessed the future impacts of changing climatic patterns on local coffee-growing areas. This research developed a number of geospatial processing models within the ArcMap software platform to model current coffee suitability and future crop suitability across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100). The results validated current locations of coffee production and revealed that there was an observable decrease in coffee suitability across the island, across all SSP scenarios and time periods under study. Most growing regions were projected to experience declines in production suitability of at least 10%, with the most severe changes occurring in non-Blue Mountain regions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Implications of this projected suitability change range from decreased production volumes, increased price volatility, and disruption to market operations and livelihood incomes. The paper's findings offer stakeholders within Jamaica's coffee industry the opportunity to develop targeted adaptation planning initiatives, and point to the need for concrete decisions concerning future investment pathways for the industry. It also provides insight into other tropical coffee-growing regions around the world that are facing the challenges associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Understanding how these ecosystems responded to past natural and anthropogenic drivers of ecological change is essential not only for understanding how extant mangroves have been shaped but also for informing their conservation. This paper reviews the available paleoecological evidence for Pleistocene and Holocene responses of Caribbean mangroves to climatic, eustatic, and anthropogenic drivers. The first records date from the Last Interglacial, when global average temperatures and sea levels were slightly higher than present and mangroves grew in locations and conditions similar to today. During the Last Glaciation, temperatures and sea levels were significantly lower, and Caribbean mangroves grew far from their present locations on presently submerged sites. The current mangrove configuration was progressively attained after Early Holocene warming and sea level rise in the absence of anthropogenic pressure. Human influence began to be important in the Mid-Late Holocene, especially during the Archaic and Ceramic cultural periods, when sea levels were close to their present position and climatic and human drivers were the most influential factors. During the last millennium, the most relevant drivers of ecological change have been the episodic droughts linked to the Little Ice Age and the historical developments of the last centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficient management of water resources and services continues to be aconcern in many of the small island states of the Caribbean. There are growing concernsover the ability of governments in the region to ensure the good management and provisionof water without jeopardizing economic growth and the maintenance of social well-being.This paper provides an overview of the major factors influencing the water security facingthe Caribbean Region and how the emerging concerns are being addressed. The keychallenges and vulnerabilities may be summarized as lack of data and barriers to makingavailable what information there is. Forward planning has been largely neglected and issymptomatic of a lack of appreciation of the need for having national water policies. In thisrespect Jamaica's development of a national master water plan serves as a good example ofwhat is needed. Water service providers have to be efficient, well managed and allowed todo their job. This means that they have to be on a sound financial footing. The challenge isto find the balance between appropriate political and regulatory oversight and theautonomy of water managers and service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With the current climate change crisis and its influence on infectious disease transmission there is an increased desire to understand its impact on infectious diseases globally. Hantaviruses are found worldwide, causing infectious diseases such as haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS)/hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in tropical regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). These regions are inherently vulnerable to climate change impacts, infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses present in multiple rodent hosts resident in Neotropical ecosystems within LAC and are involved in hantavirus transmission. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to assess the association of climatic factors with human hantavirus infections in the LAC region. Literature searches were conducted on MEDLINE and Web of Science databases for published studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The inclusion criteria included at least eight human hantavirus cases, at least one climatic factor and study from > 1 LAC geographical location. Results: In total, 383 papers were identified within the search criteria, but 13 studies met the inclusion criteria ranging from Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Panama in Latin America and a single study from Barbados in the Caribbean. Multiple mathematical models were utilized in the selected studies with varying power to generate robust risk and case estimates of human hantavirus infections linked to climatic factors. Strong evidence of hantavirus disease association with precipitation and habitat type factors were observed, but mixed evidence was observed for temperature and humidity. Conclusions: The interaction of climate and hantavirus diseases in LAC is likely complex due to the unknown identity of all vertebrate host reservoirs, circulation of multiple hantavirus strains, agricultural practices, climatic changes and challenged public health systems. There is an increasing need for more detailed systematic research on the influence of climate and other co-related social, abiotic, and biotic factors on infectious diseases in LAC to understand the complexity of vector-borne disease transmission in the Neotropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an existential threat to small island developing states. Policy coherence aims to create synergies and avoid conflicts between policies. Mainstreaming adaptation across multiple sectors and achieving greater coherence amongst policies is needed. The paper applies qualitative document analysis, content analysis, and expert interviews to examine the degree of coherence between climate-sensitive sector policies in framing climate change adaptation and the adaptation goals outlined in the national development plan and national climate change policies in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), Grenada, and Saint Lucia. The results indicate that adaptation is not fully integrated into the water, agriculture, coastal zone, and forestry policies. For example, while adaptation was explicitly addressed in Saint Lucia's water policy, it was not explicitly addressed in SVG's and Grenada's water policy. The results show that Saint Lucia has the highest coherence score (93.52) while St. Vincent and the Grenadines has the lowest (91.12). The optimal coherence score that can be possibly obtained is 147, which indicates partial coherence in adaptation mainstreaming in sectoral policies. Expert interviews highlighted problems such as institutional arrangements, a silo approach, funding mechanisms, and policy implementation. Using the knowledge provided by the experts, a seven-step process is proposed to practically achieve policy coherence and operationalize the policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing states (SIDS), such as Barbados, must continually adapt in the face of uncertain external drivers. These include demand for exports, tourism demand, and extreme weather events. Climate change introduces further uncertainty into the external drivers. To address the challenge, we present a policy-oriented simulation model that builds upon prior work by the authors and their collaborators. Intended for policy analysis, it follows a robust decision making (RDM) philosophy of identifying policies that lead to positive outcomes across a wide range of external changes. While the model can benefit from further development, it illustrates the importance for SIDS of incorporating climate change into national planning. Even without climate change, normal variation in export and tourism demand drive divergent trajectories for the economy and external debt. With climate change, increasing storm damage adds to external debt as the loss of productive capital and need to rebuild drives imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainability of small island developing states (SIDS) of the Caribbean is fragile because of island size and topography, limited resources, population growth, natural disasters, and climate change. Current and projected sustainability in 2050 were assessed within the framework of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus for 10 of 16 SIDS with the best databases. Values for each WEF sector below either Falkenmark indicators or regional averages were considered unsustainable (failing) for that sector. Overall, SIDS were considered unsustainable if they failed at least two of three sectors. Projected water sustainability for 2050 was based on population growth and climate change effects on precipitation and per capita water availability. All SIDS failed the food sector, and four failed the energy sector. Water was considered the ultimate control for long-term sustainability. Five SIDS currently fail the water sector, but all but the largest two SIDS are likely to fail this sector by 2050. The role of poor governance and associated lack of long-term planning for population growth, disasters, and climate change, adaptative management strategies, infrastructure investment with an emphasis on nature-based solutions, decentralized energy grids emphasizing renewable energy, and local food production are clearly impediments for reaching sustainability goals for Caribbean SIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to briefly review the socio-economic impact caused by the flooding of Lake Enriquillo on the inhabitants of Boca Cachón due to the complex local phenomenon related to climate variability. Between 2003 and 2014, Boca de Cachón and the communities surrounding Lake Enriquillo were deeply affected by flooding of the Lake's rising waters. Lake Enriquillo is the largest wetland in the Caribbean and the first designated RAMSAR site. In turn, Boca de Cachón could be considered the first human settlement formally displaced because of climate variability in the Dominican Republic and probably one of the first in the Americas in the twenty-first century. Boca de Cachón is a rural Municipal District located to the northwest of the municipality of Jimaní, with a population of around 3000 inhabitants on the southwest border with the Republic of Haiti and located in the Biosphere Reserve Jaragua-Bahoruco-Enriquillo. Given the future climatic scenarios for the Dominican Republic and the possible climate change that could exacerbate by excess or, by default, the socio-environmental problems in the Lake's belt, it is necessary to support the communities in their capacity-building processes. The lessons learned from Boca de Cachón can serve as a learning space for adaptation processes in rural environments in the Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Caribbean islands, like other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), are at the center of the vulnerability debate as current climatic trends predict elevated sea levels and increased frequency of storms, leading to significant challenges for local communities. Caribbean islanders have been exposed to climatic challenges since the initial occupation of the archipelago between five to eight thousand years ago. They have been continually confronted with severe droughts, tropical cyclones, extreme wave events, sea-level changes, and the accompanying impacts. The various phenomena have stimulated island residents both to anticipate and respond to such events, adapting their lifestyles and socio-cultural and political structures and ties across the region over time. In this article, we innovatively combine archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data with longitudinal coastal-erosion data and ethnographic data to further develop and promote sustainable local strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and increasingly frequent and violent weather events on small-island settings. To find proxies, we first look into the region's pre-colonial archaeological record. Second, we delve into predictive modeling and the current and future climatic challenges for heritage sites and local coastal communities, as well as related collaborative heritage mitigation efforts. Third, we discuss the contribution of traditional knowledge practices to climate change adaptation. The results show how the long-term perspective and multidisciplinary approach adopted here may lead to realistic solutions to seemingly intractable problems. They also reveal how collaborative projects involving all stakeholders on an equal basis in all phases of research have become a top priority in climate change mitigation and heritage safeguarding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many Caribbean island nations have historically been heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels for both power and transportation, while at the same time being at an enhanced risk from the impacts of climate change, although their emissions represent a very tiny fraction of the global total responsible for climate change. Small island developing states (SIDSs) are among the leaders in advocating for the ambitious 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target and the transition to 100% sustainable, renewable energy systems. In this work, three central results are presented. First, through GIS mapping of all Caribbean islands, the potential for near-coastal deep-water as a resource for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is shown, and these results are coupled with an estimate of the countries for which OTEC would be most advantageous due to a lack of other dispatchable renewable power options. Secondly, hourly data have been utilized to explicitly show the trade-offs between battery storage needs and dispatchable renewable sources such as OTEC in 100% renewable electricity systems, both in technological and economic terms. Finally, the utility of near-shore, open-cycle OTEC with accompanying desalination is shown to enable a higher penetration of renewable energy and lead to lower system levelized costs than those of a conventional fossil fuel system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]