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This paper explores the ethical challenges in deciding whether to vaccinate individuals lacking the decision-making capacity needed to provide informed consent during a public health emergency like COVID-19. The best interests standard ordinarily governs such decisions, which under the law in jurisdictions like England, Wales and Singapore takes into account the individual's past wishes and present preferences. However, in a public health emergency, the interests of third parties become more salient: those whom the unvaccinated individual might expose to infection have an interest in the individual's being vaccinated. While current mental capacity law has not been interpreted to take such public health considerations into account, we argue that such considerations are nevertheless ethically relevant, and can legitimately be weighed up alongside other considerations such as the preferences of the individual and impacts on their health. This is most relevant for individuals lacking decision-making capacity who have previously declined or presently resist vaccination. The public health impact of vaccination may in some instances be enough to outweigh preferences of the individual and justify providing vaccination against their past or present wishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is an urgent need to address high levels of work-related violence (WRV) in Britain to improve the workplace experience of both employers and employees. Aims This study specifically explores prevalence rates of work-related violence assaults (WRVAs) for staff at high risk that have supervisor responsibilities and work full-time. Methods Five years of data were used for analysis from the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW). Data were filtered for victims of crime from a working population in Britain. Results Forty-four per cent of respondents who are supervisors and have full-time jobs report that they had been victims of WRVAs. This figure is higher than other previous studies of WRV. Conclusions The current study provides further alternative evidence to support high prevalence rates of WRV by selecting for analysis specific work characteristics data that are strongly associated with WRV (supervisor responsibilities and full-time work). It is therefore recommended that future work explores different means of intervention for organizations to implement within the workplace to reduce WRV and protect workers from harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryonics, the 'freezing' of the human body after death in the hope of reanimation in the future, remains a remote possibility, and yet it is becoming a more popular choice. There has been much academic discussion of the ethics of cryopreservation; however, the legal problems have received little attention. There are, however, several potential current conflicts that might arise, as was illustrated by the case of JS in England, in which a 14-year-old girl who sought cryopreservation against her father's wishes. In the USA, there have been disputes within families about cryonic preservation, and between cryonics organizations and loved ones of the deceased when there is negligent preservation. Cryopreservation raises questions concerning the law on death and posthumous interests, property in the body, contract law, and (potentially) negligence. We argue that, in the absence of proper regulation, cryonics organizations may be able to exploit the dying and dead. The potential legal problems that we have identified in relation to the law in England and Wales demonstrate that the law is ill-equipped to protect the interests of the dead and their next of kin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature examines the ethico-legal challenges resulting from novel forms of assisted gestation like uterus transplantation and artificial placentas (also known as 'artificial wombs'). However, there has not yet been consideration of reproductive rights organizations/advocates' understandings of novel forms of assisted gestation and their challenges. These perspectives provide critical insight into how novel procreative practices are understood and the problems and pressures that might arise from their use. This is the first legal article to engage with reproductive rights organizations/advocates and thus it provides important contextual grounding to existing scholarship about assisted gestation. Focus group discussion epitomized the need for legal reform in key areas surrounding reproduction. Themes were constructed that exemplify what participants highlighted as critical: the need to re-evaluate the fundamentals of legal parenthood, consideration of how novel technologies could further enable the policing of gestation, and the space and time needed for law-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The Omicron B.1.1.529 variant increased severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in doubly vaccinated individuals, particularly in the Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine (ChAdOx1) recipients. To tackle infections, the UK's booster vaccination programmes used messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines irrespective of an individual's primary course vaccine type, and prioritized the clinically vulnerable. These mRNA vaccines included the Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273). There is limited understanding of the effectiveness of different primary vaccination courses on mRNA booster vaccines against SARs-COV-2 infections and how time-varying confounders affect these evaluations. Methods Trial emulation was applied to a prospective community observational cohort in England and Wales to reduce time-varying confounding-by-indication driven by prioritizing vaccination based upon age, vulnerability and exposure. Trial emulation was conducted by meta-analysing eight adult cohort results whose booster vaccinations were staggered between 16 September 2021 and 05 January 2022 and followed until 23 January 2022. Time from booster vaccination until SARS-CoV-2 infection, loss of follow-up or end of study was modelled using Cox proportional hazard models and adjusted for age, sex, minority ethnic status, clinically vulnerability and deprivation. Results A total of 19 159 participants were analysed, with 11 709 ChAdOx1 primary courses and 7450 BNT162b2 primary courses. Median age, clinical vulnerability status and infection rates fluctuate through time. In mRNA-boosted adults, 7.4% (n  = 863) of boosted adults with a ChAdOx1 primary course experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with 7.7% (n  = 571) of those who had BNT162b2 as a primary course. The pooled adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.01 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of: 0.90 to 1.13. Conclusion After an mRNA booster dose, we found no difference in protection comparing those with a primary course of BNT162b2 with those with a ChAdOx1 primary course. This contrasts with pre-booster findings where previous research shows greater effectiveness of BNT162b2 than ChAdOx1 in preventing infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) young people's increased risk of self-harm, suicidal attempts and suicide compared with heterosexual youth is well established. The current study sought to examine whether these findings also apply to the trans (T) population and which factors act as additional risk or protective factors. Methods In a national cross-sectional survey, 3713 LGBT adolescents, aged 11–19 years, reported on their own history of self-harm, suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, as well as their experiences of school and homophobic, biphobic and transphobic bullying. Logistic regressions tested the association between risk and protective factors on self-harm, suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. Results A high proportion of the sample reported self-harm (65.3%), suicidal ideation (73.8%) and suicide attempts (25.7%). Demographic risk factors included identifying as female, non-binary or trans and being from a low-income background. Bullying and online bullying were associated with an increased risk for each outcome, and positive school experience was associated with a reduced risk for each outcome. Conclusions Consistent with minority stress theory, the study found high rates of mental health problems within LGBT youth. Interventions focused on improving young people's experiences in schools appear useful targets to help improve mental health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New data on profit heterogeneity of small- and medium-sized firms for 1861–81 in England and Wales are used to reinterpret Marshall's contemporary insights. Profit level differences are chiefly explained by location, mainly urbanisation effects. But profitability (profit per worker) is mainly explained by sectors, at both 1-digit and 5-digit level. Sector market opportunities reflected barriers to market entry which limited substitutability for the services of the professions, some manufacturing and maker-dealing industries. Localisation mainly reflected urban/rural differences, accessibility to railways and to a lesser extent waterways. Differences in firm-level organisation (measured by portfolio diversification and partnerships) were less significant for explaining profit heterogeneity than sector or localisation. Demographic effects such as an entrepreneur's age had little significance. Marshall's insight of convergence to mean industry-sector profitability, with localisation as a secondary influence, is confirmed, but there remain unexplained elements of heterogeneity indicating important roles of entrepreneurial agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background inequalities and gaps in post-diagnostic support (PDS) for people with dementia persist despite a policy focus on dementia in England and Wales. Understanding and overcoming the factors contributing to these inequalities is vital to improve care for people living with dementia (PLWD) and their families. Objective to explore common barriers to the delivery of PDS in England and Wales and describe successful strategies to address them, drawing on examples from current practice. Design qualitative semi-structured interviews, focus groups and observation. Settings Phase 1: interviewees were drawn from multiple sectors across England and Wales, including NHS clinical commissioning groups and social care. Phase 2: six case study sites based in different sectors (primary care, secondary mental health and third sector) in England. Participants Phase 1: 61 professionals, including commissioners and service managers. Phase 2: 68 professionals, including frontline staff and those working in related services; 17 PLWD; 31 carers. Results barriers to implementing PDS in dementia were an unsupportive infrastructure, limited proactive review and limited capacity and capability particularly in primary care. Strategies used successfully in practice to address these challenges included creating opportunities for service development, improving joint working, supporting non-specialists and developing ongoing, holistic review and care planning. Conclusion a range of practical strategies have been identified to address many of the common barriers to PDS in dementia. To achieve policy goals of a task-shifted and task-shared approach to PDS, widespread use of these strategies is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives We set out to characterize patient factors that predict disease activity during the first year of treatment for early inflammatory arthritis (EIA). Methods We used an observational cohort study design, extracting data from a national clinical audit. All NHS organizations providing secondary rheumatology care in England and Wales were eligible to take part, with recruitment from 215/218 (99%) clinical commissioning groups (CCGs)/Health Boards. Participants were >16 years old and newly diagnosed with RA pattern EIA between May 2018 and May 2019. Demographic details collected at baseline included age, gender, ethnicity, work status and postcode, which was converted to an area level measure of socioeconomic position (SEP). Disease activity scores (DAS28) were collected at baseline, three and 12 months follow-up. Results A total of 7455 participants were included in analyses. Significant levels of CCG/Health board variation could not be robustly identified from mixed effects modelling. Gender and SEP were predictors of low disease activity at baseline, three and 12 months follow-up. Mapping of margins identified a gradient for SEP, whereby those with higher degrees of deprivation had higher disease activity. Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic patients had lower odds of remission at three months follow-up. Conclusion Patient factors (gender, SEP, ethnicity) predict disease activity. The rheumatology community should galvanise to improve access to services for all members of society. More data are required to characterize area level variation in disease activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To determine whether mobilisation timing was associated with the cumulative incidence of hospital discharge by 30 days after hip fracture surgery, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Method We examined data for 135,105 patients 60 years or older who underwent surgery for nonpathological first hip fracture between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 in any hospital in England or Wales. We tested whether the cumulative incidences of discharge differed between those mobilised early (within 36 h of surgery) and those mobilised late, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Results A total of 106,722 (79%) of patients first mobilised early. The average rate of discharge was 39.2 (95% CI 38.9–39.5) per 1,000 patient days, varying from 43.1 (95% CI 42.8–43.5) among those who mobilised early to 27.0 (95% CI 26.6–27.5) among those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. By 30-day postoperatively, the crude and adjusted odds ratios of discharge were 2.36 (95% CI 2.29–2.43) and 2.08 (95% CI 2.00–2.16), respectively, among those who first mobilised early compared with those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. Conclusion Early mobilisation led to a 2-fold increase in the adjusted odds of discharge by 30-day postoperatively. We recommend inclusion of mobilisation within 36 h of surgery as a new UK Best Practice Tariff to help reduce delays to mobilisation currently experienced by one-fifth of patients surgically treated for hip fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Artificial womb' technology is highly anticipated for the benefits it might have as an alternative to neonatal intensive care and for pregnant people. In the bioethical literature, it has been suggested that such technology will force us to rethink the ethics of abortion. Some scholars have suggested that a pregnant person may be entitled to end a pregnancy but, with the advent of ectogestation, they may not be unilaterally entitled to opt for an abortion where the other genetic progenitor does not agree. Following two high-profile cases in England and Wales in the late 70s and 80s, English law is clear that genetic progenitors who do not gestate have no say in abortion decisions. It might be argued, however, that ectogestation casts doubt on the exclusion of all claims by genetic progenitors. In this article, I assess what a legal challenge to a decision to opt for abortion might look like with the advent of this technology, by examining whether genetic progenitors have the locus standi or grounds to seek an injunction to prevent abortion. I argue that such a challenge is unlikely to be successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective to provide a preliminary estimate of the effectiveness of the prevention of delirium (POD) system of care in reducing incident delirium in acute hospital wards and gather data for a future definitive randomised controlled trial. Design cluster randomised and controlled feasibility trial. Setting sixteen acute care of older people and orthopaedic trauma wards in eight hospitals in England and Wales. Participants patients 65 years and over admitted to participating wards during the trial period. Interventions participating wards were randomly assigned to either the POD programme or usual care, determined by existing local policies and practices. The POD programme is a manualised multicomponent delirium prevention intervention that targets 10 risk factors for delirium. The intervention wards underwent a 6-month implementation period before trial recruitment commenced. Main outcome measure incidence of new-onset delirium measured using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) measured daily for up to 10 days post consent. Results out of 4449, 3274 patients admitted to the wards were eligible. In total, 714 patients consented (713 registered) to the trial, thirty-three participants (4.6%) withdrew. Adherence to the intervention was classified as at least medium for seven wards. Rates of new-onset delirium were lower than expected and did not differ between groups (24 (7.0%) of participants in the intervention group versus 33 (8.9%) in the control group; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.68 (0.37–1.26); P  = 0.2225). Conclusions based on these findings, a definitive trial is achievable and would need to recruit 5220 patients in 26 two-ward hospital clusters. Trial registration: ISRCTN01187372. Registered 13 March 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Giving children the best start in life is critical for their future health and wellbeing. Political devolution in the UK provides a natural experiment to explore how public health systems contribute to children's early developmental outcomes across four countries. Method A systematic literature review and input from a stakeholder group was used to develop a public health systems framework. This framework then informed analysis of public health policy approaches to early child development. Results A total of 118 studies met the inclusion criteria. All national policies championed a 'prevention approach' to early child development. Political factors shaped divergence, with variation in national conceptualizations of child development ('preparing for life' versus 'preparing for school') and pre-school provision ('universal entitlement' or 'earned benefit'). Poverty and resourcing were identified as key system factors that influenced outcomes. Scotland and Wales have enacted distinctive legislation focusing on wider determinants. However, this is limited by the extent of devolved powers. Conclusion The systems framework clarifies policy complexity relating to early child development. The divergence of child development policies in the four countries and, particularly, the explicit recognition in Scottish and Welsh policy of wider determinants, creates scope for this topic to be a tracer area to compare UK public health systems longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this era of 'big data', there is growing recognition of the value of environmental, health, social and demographic data for research. Open government data initiatives are growing in number and in terms of content. Remote sensing data are finding widespread use in environmental research, including in low- and middle-income settings. While our ability to study environment and health associations across countries and continents grows, data protection rules and greater patient control over the use of their data present new challenges to using health data in research. Innovative tools that circumvent the need for the physical sharing of data by supporting non-disclosive sharing of information, or that permit spatial analysis without researchers needing access to underlying patient data can be used to support analyses while protecting data confidentiality. User-friendly visualizations, allowing small-area data to be seen and understood by non-expert audiences, are revolutionizing public and researcher interactions with data. The UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit's Environment and Health Atlas for England and Wales, and the US National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network offer good examples. Open data facilitates user-generated outputs, and 'mash-ups', and user-generated inputs from social media, mobile devices and wearable tech are new data streams that will find utility in future studies, and bring novel dimensions with respect to ethical use of small-area data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Identifying ethnic inequalities in health requires data with sufficiently 'granular' (fine detailed) classifications of ethnicity to capture sub-group variation in healthcare use, risk factors and health behaviors. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), in the USA, commissioned us to explore granular approaches to ethnicity data collection outside of the USA, commencing with the European Union. Methods We examined official data sources (population censuses/registers) within the EU-28 to determine the granularity of their approach to ethnicity. When ethnic information was not available, related variables were sought (e.g. country of birth). Results Within the EU-28, we found 55% of countries collected data on ethnicity. However, only 26% of these countries (England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Republic of Ireland, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) had a granular approach, with half of these being within the UK. Estonia, Lithuania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Republic of Cyprus and Slovenia collected one to six categories. A 'write-in' option only was found in Latvia, Romania and the Czech Republic. Forty-five percent of countries did not collect ethnicity data but collected other related variables. Conclusions (i) Although there is reasonable attention to the diversity of ethnic groups in data collection, a granular approach does not predominate within EU-28 classifications. (ii) Where ethnicity is collected, it is conceptualized in different ways and diverse terminology is used. (iii) A write-in option provides the most granular approach. (iv) Almost half of the countries did not collect data on ethnicity, but did collect related variables that could be used as a proxy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Dating and relationship violence (DRV) is under-researched in the UK, especially among Further Education (FE) students. This study examines the association between DRV victimization and socio-demographic characteristics, sexual identity and dating and relationship behaviours among 16–19 year olds FE students. Methods Cross-sectional self-report data were collected from 1751 students aged 16–19 at six FE settings in England and Wales. Factor analysis examined the structure of DRV victimization by gender. Multilevel logistic regression examined the odds ratios of DRV victimization according to socio-demographics, sexual identity and dating behaviours. Results DRV victimization clusters into two categories for females, and three for males. Among females, 46.1% experienced controlling behaviours and 31.6% threatening behaviours; 49.9% of males experienced controlling behaviours, 27.1% threatening behaviours and 5.8% online sexual violence. The odds of DRV victimization were 2–8 times greater for males and 2–4 times greater for females who had ever sent a sexually explicit image. No consistent association was found between DRV and age, spending money per week, educational attainment or meeting partners online. Conclusions The high prevalence, absence of gender differences and social patterning, suggests DRV victimization may be becoming normalized and is of significant public health importance for young people in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: death certification data are routinely collected in most developed countries. Coded causes of death are a readily accessible source and have the potential advantage of providing complete follow-up, but with limitations. Objective: to investigate the reliability of using death certificates for surveillance of dementia, the time trend of recording dementia on death certificates and predictive factors of recording of dementia. Subjects: individuals aged 65 and over in six areas across England and Wales were randomly selected for the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) and CFAS II with mortality follow-up. Methods: prevalence of dementia recorded on death certificates were calculated by year. Reporting of dementia on death certificates compared with the study diagnosis of dementia, with sensitivity, specificity and Cohen's x were estimated. Multivariable logistic regression models explored the impact of potential factors on the reporting of dementia on the death certificate. Results: the overall unadjusted prevalence of dementia on death certificates rose from 5.3% to 25.9% over the last 26 years. Dementia reported on death certificates was poor with sensitivity 21.0% in earlier cohort CFAS, but it had increased to 45.2% in CFAS II. Dementia was more likely to be recorded on death certificates in individuals with severe dementia, or those living in an institution, yet less likely reported if individuals died in hospital. Conclusion: recording dementia on death certificate has improved significantly in the England and Wales. However, such information is still an underestimate and should be used alongside epidemiological estimations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits of using electronic health records (EHRs) for disease risk screening and personalized health-care decisions are being increasingly recognized. Here we present a computationally feasible statistical approach with which to address the methodological challenges involved in utilizing historical repeat measures of multiple risk factors recorded in EHRs to systematically identify patients at high risk of future disease. The approach is principally based on a 2-stage dynamic landmark model. The first stage estimates current risk factor values from all available historical repeat risk factor measurements via landmark-age-specific multivariate linear mixed-effects models with correlated random intercepts, which account for sporadically recorded repeat measures, unobserved data, and measurement errors. The second stage predicts future disease risk from a sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards model, with estimated current risk factor values from the first stage. We exemplify these methods by developing and validating a dynamic 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using primary-care EHRs for age, diabetes status, hypertension treatment, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in 41,373 persons from 10 primary-care practices in England and Wales contributing to The Health Improvement Network (1997-2016). Using cross-validation, the model was well-calibrated (Brier score = 0.041, 95% confidence interval: 0.039, 0.042) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.768, 95% confidence interval: 0.759, 0.777). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence has shown a diversity of practices and terminology concerning the implementation and documentation of Do Not Attempt Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) notices across different hospital Trusts in England and Wales, and the Resuscitation Council (UK) has recently proposed a standard approach for how DNACPR notices can be better incorporated into overall care plans. However, the Council can only make recommendations for good practice. This discussion reviews current practices and suggests that the time has come for a national standardized approach to the process of initiating and documenting DNACPR, along with a dedicated programme to increase public understanding of what is involved. A national policy framework for DNACPR notices would avoid regional and institutional differences, bust current myths, and ensure communication with, and involvement of, the patient remains at the heart of medical practice and decision-making. Importantly, it would both ensure that the respective legal rights and obligations of patients and professionals are respected, as well as providing clear public health benefits. At the very least, a national conversation would help achieve common understandings and expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0% Results Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses scientific researches involving epidemiology, and they include one which investigated which factors increased the risk of falls and fractures after stroke, another which examined the outcome of older surgical patients with poor cognition who are admitted to the acute surgical setting, and one which explored differences in physical performance (PP) in relation to health and lifestyle factors among ethnically diverse community-dwelling older adults from one geographic area.

Objectives: to test whether an occupation-based lifestyle intervention can sustain and improve the mental well-being of adults aged 65 years or over compared to usual care, using an individually randomised controlled trial. Participants: 288 independently living adults aged 65 years or over, with normal cognition, were recruited from two UK sites between December 2011 and November 2015. Interventions: lifestyle Matters is a National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended multi-component preventive intervention designed to improve the mental well-being of community living older people at risk of decline. It involves weekly group sessions over 4 months and one to one sessions. Main outcome measures: the primary outcome was mental well-being at 6 months (mental health (MH) dimension of the SF-36). Secondary outcomes included physical health dimensions of the SF-36, extent of depression (PHQ-9), quality of life (EQ-5D) and loneliness (de Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale), assessed at 6 and 24 months. Results: data on 262 (intervention = 136; usual care = 126) participants were analysed using intention to treat analysis. Mean SF-36 MH scores at 6 months differed by 2.3 points (95 CI: -1.3 to 5.9; P = 0.209) after adjustments. Conclusions: analysis shows little evidence of clinical or cost-effectiveness in the recruited population with analysis of the primary outcome revealing that the study participants were mentally well at baseline. The results pose questions regarding how preventive interventions to promote well-being in older adults can be effectively targeted in the absence of proactive mechanisms to identify those who at risk of decline. Trial Registration: ISRCTN67209155. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School closure is often considered as an influenza control measure, but its effects on transmission are poorly understood. We used 2 approaches to estimate how school holidays affect the contact parameter (the per capita rate of contact sufficient for infection transmission) for influenza using primary care data from England and Wales (1967-2000). Firstly, we fitted an age-structured susceptible-infectious-recovered model to each year's data to estimate the proportional change in the contact parameter during school holidays as compared with termtime. Secondly, we calculated the percentage difference in the contact parameter between holidays and termtime from weekly values of the contact parameter, estimated directly from simple mass-action models. Estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis, where appropriate. From fitting to the data, the difference in the contact parameter among children aged 5-14 years during holidays as compared with termtime ranged from a 36% reduction to a 17% increase; estimates were too heterogeneous for meta-analysis. Based on the simple mass-action model, the contact parameter was 17% (95% confidence interval: 10, 25) lower during holidays than during termtime. Results were robust to the assumed proportions of infections that were reported and individuals who were susceptible when the influenza season started. We conclude that school closure may reduce transmission during influenza outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The number of abortions of fetuses with Down syndrome in England and Wales reported by the Department of Health (DH) differs from that reported by the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR). The aim of this study was to investigate the reasons for this. Methods Abortions in 2011 and 2012 from DH were matched to those from NDSCR. The number of cases not reported to either source was estimated. Results An estimated 2240 abortions of fetuses with Down syndrome occurred in 2011/12; NDSCR estimated 2208 and DH 1100. One thousand and six abortions were identified in both data sets, including 145 (14%) which were not recorded by DH as having Down syndrome. Abortions in NDSCR that were not matched in DH occurred throughout England and Wales and at all gestational ages. An estimated 61 abortions of fetuses with Down syndrome were not reported to DH or NDSCR. Conclusions The number of abortions of fetuses with Down syndrome reported by the NDSCR is more complete than that reported by the DH. DH data for abortions with other congenital anomalies are also likely to be underestimates, and more accurate estimates are available from BINOCAR regional congenital anomaly registers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. The aim of this analysis is to examine the longitudinal impact of symptoms of depression/ anxiety on treatment response, long-term disease activity and physical disability in RA. Methods. Secondary analysis of clinical trial data was performed. Data were collected at baseline and at 6-monthly intervals for 2 years. The EuroQoL (EQ-5D™) indicated depression/anxiety symptom severity. Our primary outcomes of interest were (i) DAS-28 and (ii) physical disability measured via the HAQ. Secondary outcomes were: tender and swollen joint counts, patient global assessment, ESR and odds of reaching clinical remission. Multilevel models were used to assess the impact of baseline and persistent depression/anxiety on outcomes over 2 years. Results. Data from 379 patients were included. After adjusting for covariates, baseline depression/anxiety symptoms were associated with increased DAS-28 outcomes and increased tender joint counts. Persistent depression/anxiety symptoms were associated with increased DAS-28 scores, HAQ scores, tender joint counts and patient global assessment of disease activity, and reduced odds of reaching clinical remission. Patients with symptoms of depression/anxiety at baseline also showed a 50% reduction in prednisolone treatment effect, in comparison with patients with no symptoms of depression/anxiety at baseline. Conclusion. Baseline and persistent symptoms of depression/anxiety are associated with poorer health outcomes over time, as well as reduced treatment response. Mental health should be routinely measured both in clinical practice and in research, and managed alongside rheumatological disease to optimize health outcomes. Further research is required to examine whether treatment of mental disorders can improve rheumatological outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading genetic cause of end-stage renal failure (ESRF). The epidemiology of the incident ADPKD patient cohort requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England and Wales has not been described. Methods We used a retrospective cohort design. Incident adult patients commencing RRT between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2011 in England and Wales were identified from the UK Renal Registry. Patients were stratified into three groups based on primary renal diagnosis (PRD): (i) ADPKD, (ii) diabetes as PRD, (iii) individuals with another PRD (‘other’). Baseline demographics, comorbidity, care-related measures and outcomes including patient survival are described. Results A total of 52 608 individuals started RRT during the study period, 3598 (6.8%) had ADPKD, 12 137 (23.1%) diabetes as PRD and 36 873 had another PRD diagnosis. The median age of commencing RRT was 55 years in the ADPKD group compared with 62 and 66 years in those with diabetes or ‘other’ PRD, respectively. The median age of starting RRT did not change within the ADPKD group over the 10-year period. Median age at death was similar across all groups. The ADPKD group had a lower hazard for all-cause mortality compared with the ‘other’ PRD group (adjusted hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.38–0.53). In all PRD groups, crude mortality rates had improved between 2000–06 and 2007–11. Conclusion Although engaged in renal services earlier than some other patient groups, individuals with ADPKD start RRT at a younger age and this has remained unchanged over the last decade. Developing a nationwide cohort and an enhanced disease-specific dataset would facilitate a wide range of research and quality improvement initiatives to try to modify progression to ESRF and the course of RRT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]