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Background Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death. Methods We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores. Results In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusions We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open in new tab Download slide OBJECTIVES Cardiac malformations are a major component of heterotaxy syndrome that results in significant mortality and morbidity, especially in patients with a single ventricle and right isomerism (RI). The goal of this study was to evaluate the mortality after cardiovascular surgery in patients with a functional single ventricle and RI over a long follow-up period (∼40 years) and to determine the predicted risk factors for mortality. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of the medical records of 129 consecutive patients with functional single ventricle and RI who underwent pulmonary flow control operations at Mt. Fuji Shizuoka Children's Hospital between 1979 and 2020. To evaluate mortality rates, the patients were divided into 2 groups (era 1: 1979–1999 and era 2: 2000–2020) based on the date of the first-stage palliation. RESULTS The estimated survival rate at 10 years was 36.4% in era 1 and 57.8% in era 2. The estimated survival rate improved significantly (P = 0.0268) between the 2 eras. The rate of Fontan procedure completion was also significantly better in the current era (P = 0.0392; 22/59 in era 1 and 38/66 in era 2). In the multivariable analysis, the date of the first-stage palliation was the only predictor of mortality. CONCLUSIONS The mortality rate after cardiovascular surgery in patients with a functional single ventricle and RI has improved over the past 20 years; however, it still remains high. This improvement may be attributed to our current surgical strategy and clinical management; however, further investigations are needed to prove this observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To assess the applicability of Electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) algorithms to Japanese administrative claims data and to evaluate their association with long-term outcomes. Study Design and Setting A cohort study using a regional government administrative healthcare and long-term care (LTC) claims database in Japan 2014–18. Participants Plan enrollees aged ≥50 years. Methods We applied the two algorithms to the cohort and assessed the scores' distributions alongside enrollees' 4-year mortality and initiation of government-supported LTC. Using Cox regression and Fine–Gray models, we evaluated the association between frailty scores and outcomes as well as the models' discriminatory ability. Results Among 827,744 enrollees, 42.8% were categorised by eFI as fit, 31.2% mild, 17.5% moderate and 8.5% severe. For HFRS, 73.0% were low, 24.3% intermediate and 2.7% high risk; 35 of 36 predictors for eFI, and 92 of 109 codes originally used for HFRS were available in the Japanese system. Relative to the lowest frailty group, the highest frailty group had hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 2.09 (1.98–2.21) for mortality and 2.45 (2.28–2.63) for LTC for eFI; those for HFRS were 3.79 (3.56–4.03) and 3.31 (2.87–3.82), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for the unadjusted model at 48 months was 0.68 for death and 0.68 for LTC for eFI, and 0.73 and 0.70, respectively, for HFRS. Conclusions The frailty algorithms were applicable to the Japanese system and could contribute to the identifications of enrollees at risk of long-term mortality or LTC use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]