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The absence of reliable registration of Covid-19 deaths in India has prevented proper assessment and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, India's relatively young age structure tends to conceal the severity of Covid-19 mortality, which is concentrated in older age groups. In this paper, we present four different demographic samples of Indian populations for which we have information on both their demographic structures and death outcomes. We show that we can model the age distribution of Covid-19 mortality in India and use this modeling to estimate Covid-19 mortality in the country. Our findings point to a death toll of approximately 3.2–3.7 million persons by early November 2021. Once India's age structure is factored in, these figures correspond to one of the most severe cases of Covid-19 mortality in the world. India has recorded after February 2021 the second outbreak of coronavirus that has affected the entire country. The accuracy of official statistics of Covid-19 mortality has been questioned, and the real number of Covid-19 deaths is thought to be several times higher than reported. In this paper, we assembled four independent population samples to model and estimate the level of Covid-19 mortality in India. We first used a population sample with the age and sex of Covid-19 victims to develop a Gompertz model of Covid-19 mortality in India. We applied and adjusted this mortality model on two other national population samples after factoring in the demographic characteristics of these samples. We finally derive from these samples the most reasonable estimate of Covid-19 mortality level in India and confirm this result using a fourth population sample. Our findings point to a death toll of about 3.2–3.7 million persons by late May 2021. This is by far the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in the world. Once standardized for age and sex structure, India's Covid-19 mortality rate is above Brazil and the USA. Our analysis shows that existing population samples allow an alternative estimation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India. The results imply that only one out of 7–8 deaths appear to have been recorded as a Covid-19 death in India. The estimates also point to a very high Covid-19 mortality rate, which is even higher after age and sex standardization. The magnitude of the pandemic in India requires immediate attention. In the absence of effective remedies, this calls for a strong response based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the scale-up of vaccination to make them accessible to all, with an improved surveillance system to monitor the progression of the pandemic and its spread across India's regions and social groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance. Methodology/Principal findings: We developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks. Conclusions/Significance: The model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control. Author summary: This paper demonstrates a statistical modelling approach for forecasting of monthly visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence at block level in India, which could be used to tailor control efforts according to local estimates and monitor deviations from the currently decreasing trend. By fitting a variety of models to four years of historical data and assessing predictions within a further 24-month test period, we found that the model which best fit the observed data also showed the best predictive performance, and predictive accuracy was maintained when making rolling predictions up to four months ahead of the observed data. Since there is a two-month delay between reporting and processing of the data, predictive power more than three months ahead of current data is crucial to make forecasts which can feasibly be acted upon. Some heterogeneity remains in predictive power across the study region which could potentially be improved using unit-specific data on factors believed to be associated with reported VL incidence (e.g. age distribution, socio-economic status and climate). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of stunting among under- three Indian children though decreased, still it is considered to be alarmingly high. In most of the previous studies, traditional (linear and logistic) regression analyses were applied. They were limited to encapsulated cross-distribution variations. The objective of the current study was to examine how the different determinants were heterogeneous in various percentiles of height for age (HAZ) distribution. Methods and findings: This article examined the change in the HAZ distribution of children and examined the relationships between the key co-variate trends and patterns in HAZ among children aged <3 years over a period of 24 years. Four successive rounds of the National Family Health Survey data 1992–93, 1998–99, 2005–06, and 2015–16 were used for analysis. The final study included 206579 children aged <3 years (N = 106136 male, 100443 female). To explain and analyse differences in the HAZ distribution, the lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method was used. Trends in height for age (HAZ) distribution over time were analysed using separate gender-stratified quantile regression (QR). The selected socio-economic, demographic and other predictors were considered for this analysis. The quantile regressions have indicated that mothers who have higher than primary level education were more proactive in mitigating malnutrition among children at the lower end of the distribution. The age, birth order, mother's body-mass-index (BMI) and economic status, among children, were some more determining factors for HAZ. Results of selected quantile regression were estimated at the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th quantiles. Conclusions: The outcome of various covariates working differently across the HAZ distribution was suggested by quantile regression. The major discrepancies in different aspects were underlined by socioeconomic and demographic aspects among the Indian population. The heterogeneity of this effect was shown using quantile regression. Policymakers may choose to concentrate on the most important factors when formulating policies to lessen the prevalence of stunting in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global efforts to control morbidity associated with soil-transmitted helminth infections (STH) have focused largely on the targeted treatment of high-risk groups, including children and pregnant women. However, it is not clear when such programs can be discontinued and there are concerns about the sustainability of current STH control programs. The DeWorm3 project is a large multi-country community cluster randomized trial in Benin, India and Malawi designed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH using community-wide delivery of mass drug administration (MDA) with anthelmintics over multiple rounds. Here, we present baseline data and estimate key epidemiological parameters important in determining the likelihood of transmission interruption in the DeWorm3 trial. A baseline census was conducted in October-December 2017 in India, November-December 2017 in Malawi and in January-February 2018 in Benin. The baseline census enumerated all members of each household and collected demographic data and information on occupation, assets, and access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Each study site was divided into 40 clusters of at least 1,650 individuals per cluster. Clusters were randomized to receive twice yearly community-wide MDA with albendazole (GSK) targeting eligible individuals of all ages (20 clusters), or to receive the standard-of-care deworming program targeting children provided in each country. In each site, a randomly selected group of 150 individuals per cluster (6,000 total per site) was selected from the baseline census using stratified random sampling, and each individual provided a single stool sample for analysis of STH infection using the Kato-Katz technique. Study site, household and individual characteristics were summarized as appropriate. We estimated key epidemiological parameters including the force of infection and the degree of parasite aggregation within the population. The DeWorm3 sites range in population from 94,969 to 140,932. The population age distribution varied significantly by site, with the highest proportion of infants and young children in Malawi and the highest proportion of adults in India. The baseline age- and cluster-weighted prevalence, as measured by Kato-Katz, varied across sites and by species, Baseline hookworm prevalence in India was 21.4% (95% CI: 20.4–22.4%), while prevalence of Ascaris and Trichuris by Kato-Katz was low (0.1% and 0.3% overall). In Malawi, the overall age- and cluster-weighted STH prevalence was 7.7% (95% CI: 7.1–8.4%) predominantly driven by hookworm infections (7.4%) while Ascaris (0.1%) and Trichuris (0.3%) infections were rare. In Benin, the overall age- and cluster-weighted prevalence was significantly lower (5.6%, 95% CI: 5.1–6.2%) and Ascaris (2.0%, 95% CI: 1.6–2.3%) was more common than in other sites. Ascaris infections were more likely to be moderate- or heavy-intensity (43.7%, unweighted) compared to hookworm (5.0%). The force of infection for hookworm was highest in adults in India and Malawi but appeared relatively stable across age groups in Benin. These data demonstrate the significant variability between the sites in terms of demography, socio-economic status and environmental characteristics. In addition, the baseline prevalence and intensity data from DeWorm3 suggest that each site has unique epidemiologic characteristics that will be critical in determining correlates of achieving STH transmission interruption in the DeWorm3 trial. Trial registration: The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03014167). Author summary: Intestinal parasitic worms, soil-transmitted helminths, are among the most common infectious organisms of humans. In many low-resource settings, these infections result in considerable morbidity, including reductions in childhood growth and development, increased risk of anemia and reductions in future educational achievement and income earning potential. The current global strategy for controlling these infections is through routine deworming of school and pre-school aged children as well as pregnant women. Since many adults and non-school going children are infected with these parasites, the current strategy does not prevent the rapid reinfection of individuals despite repeated treatment. The DeWorm3 trial is a large multi-country trial being conducted in Benin, India and Malawi to test the feasibility of using mass drug administration of deworming medications to all individuals in a community to interrupt these infections in some geographic areas. Here we present baseline data from these communities and estimate the transmission potential of these infections at each of the sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]