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Surrogate models are frequently used to replace costly engineering simulations. A single surrogate is frequently chosen based on previous experience or by fitting multiple surrogates and selecting one based on mean cross-validation errors. A novel stacking strategy will be presented in this paper. This new strategy results from reinterpreting the model selection process based on the generalization error. For the first time, this problem is proposed to be translated into a well-studied financial problem: portfolio management and optimization. In short, it is demonstrated that the individual residues calculated by leave-one-out procedures are samples from a given random variable ϵi, whose second non-central moment is the i-th model's generalization error. Thus, a stacking methodology based solely on evaluating the behavior of the linear combination of the random variables ϵi is proposed. At first, several surrogate models are calibrated. The Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree (DBHT) clustering algorithm is then used to determine which models are worth stacking. The stacking weights can be calculated using any financial approach to the portfolio optimization problem. This alternative understanding of the problem enables practitioners to use established financial methodologies to calculate the models' weights, significantly improving the ensemble of models' out-of-sample performance. A study case is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the new methodology. Overall, a total of 124 models were trained using a specific dataset: 40 Machine Learning models and 84 Polynomial Chaos Expansion models (which considered 3 types of base random variables, 7 least square algorithms for fitting the up to fourth order expansion's coefficients). Among those, 99 models could be fitted without convergence and other numerical issues. The DBHT algorithm with Pearson correlation distance and generalization error similarity was able to select a subgroup of 23 models from the 99 fitted ones, implying a reduction of about 77% in the total number of models, representing a good filtering scheme which still preserves diversity. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the weights obtained by building a Hierarchical Risk Parity (HPR) portfolio perform better for various input random variables, indicating better out-of-sample performance. In this way, an economic stacking strategy has demonstrated its worth in improving the out-of-sample capabilities of stacked models, which illustrates how the new understanding of model stacking methodologies may be useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel strategy for computing mathematical functions with molecular reactions, based on theory from the realm of digital design. It demonstrates how to design chemical reaction networks based on truth tables that specify analog functions, computed by stochastic logic. The theory of stochastic logic entails the use of random streams of zeros and ones to represent probabilistic values. A link is made between the representation of random variables with stochastic logic on the one hand, and the representation of variables in molecular systems as the concentration of molecular species, on the other. Research in stochastic logic has demonstrated that many mathematical functions of interest can be computed with simple circuits built with logic gates. This paper presents a general and efficient methodology for translating mathematical functions computed by stochastic logic circuits into chemical reaction networks. Simulations show that the computation performed by the reaction networks is accurate and robust to variations in the reaction rates, within a log-order constraint. Reaction networks are given that compute functions for applications such as image and signal processing, as well as machine learning: arctan, exponential, Bessel, and sinc. An implementation is proposed with a specific experimental chassis: DNA strand displacement with units called DNA "concatemers". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peer review is the gold standard for scientific communication, but its ability to guarantee the quality of published research remains difficult to verify. Recent modeling studies suggest that peer review is sensitive to reviewer misbehavior, and it has been claimed that referees who sabotage work they perceive as competition may severely undermine the quality of publications. Here we examine which aspects of suboptimal reviewing practices most strongly impact quality, and test different mitigating strategies that editors may employ to counter them. We find that the biggest hazard to the quality of published literature is not selfish rejection of high-quality manuscripts but indifferent acceptance of low-quality ones. Bypassing or blacklisting bad reviewers and consulting additional reviewers to settle disagreements can reduce but not eliminate the impact. The other editorial strategies we tested do not significantly improve quality, but pairing manuscripts to reviewers unlikely to selfishly reject them and allowing revision of rejected manuscripts minimize rejection of above-average manuscripts. In its current form, peer review offers few incentives for impartial reviewing efforts. Editors can help, but structural changes are more likely to have a stronger impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed models: Models allowing for continuous heterogeneity by assuming that value of one or more parameters follow a specified distribution have become increasingly popular. This is known as ‘mixing’ parameters, and it is standard practice by researchers - and the default option in many statistical programs - to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). Problem 1: Inconsistent LR tests due to asymmetric draws:: This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed parameters this practice is very likely to cause misleading test results for the number of draws usually used today. The paper illustrates that increasing the number of draws is a very inefficient solution strategy requiring very large numbers of draws to ensure against misleading test statistics. The main conclusion of this paper is that the problem can be solved completely by using fully antithetic draws, and that using one dimensionally antithetic draws is not enough to solve the problem. Problem 2: Maintaining the correct dimensions when reducing the mixing distribution:: A second point of the paper is that even when fully antithetic draws are used, models reducing the dimension of the mixing distribution must replicate the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood. Again this is not standard in research or statistical programs. The paper therefore recommends using fully antithetic draws replicating the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood and that this should become the default option in statistical programs. JEL classification: C15; C25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data has revealed that brain regions can be grouped into functional brain networks (fBNs) or communities. A community in fMRI analysis signifies a group of brain regions coupled functionally with one another. In neuroimaging, functional connectivity (FC) measure can be utilized to quantify such functionally connected regions for disease diagnosis and hence, signifies the need of devising novel FC estimation methods. In this paper, we propose a novel method of learning FC by constraining its rank and the sum of non-zero coefficients. The underlying idea is that fBNs are sparse and can be embedded in a relatively lower dimension space. In addition, we propose to extract overlapping networks. In many instances, communities are characterized as combinations of disjoint brain regions, although recent studies indicate that brain regions may participate in more than one community. In this paper, large-scale overlapping fBNs are identified on resting state fMRI data by employing non-negative matrix factorization. Our findings support the existence of overlapping brain networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience is a system's ability to withstand a disruption and return to a normal state quickly. It is a random variable due to the randomness of both the disruption and resilience behavior of a system. The distribution characteristics of resilience are the basis for resilience design and analysis, such as test sample size determination and assessment model selection. In this paper, we propose a systematic resilience distribution identification and analysis (RDIA) method based on a system's performance processes after disruptions. Typical performance degradation/recovery processes have linear, exponential, and trigonometric functions, and they have three key parameters: the maximum performance degradation, the degradation duration, and the recovery duration. Using the Monte Carlo method, these three key parameters are first sampled according to their corresponding probability density functions. Combining the sample results with the given performance function type, the system performance curves after disruptions can be obtained. Then the sample resilience is computed using a deterministic resilience measure and the resilience distribution can be determined through candidate distribution identification, parameter estimation, and a goodness-of-fit test. Finally, we apply our RDIA method to systems with typical performance processes, and both the orthogonal experiment method and the control variable method are used to investigate the resilience distribution laws. The results show that the resilience of these systems follows the Weibull distribution. An end-to-end communication system is also used to explain how to apply this method with simulation or test data in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many practical situations, there is an interest in modeling bounded random variables in the interval (0, 1), such as rates, proportions, and indexes. It is important to provide new continuous models to deal with the uncertainty involved by variables of this type. This paper proposes a new quantile regression model based on an alternative parameterization of the unit Burr XII (UBXII) distribution. For the UBXII distribution and its associated regression, we obtain score functions and observed information matrices. We use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the regression model, and conduct a Monte Carlo study to evaluate the performance of its estimates in samples of finite size. Furthermore, we present general diagnostic analysis and model selection techniques for the regression model. We empirically show its importance and flexibility through an application to an actual data set, in which the dropout proportion of Brazilian undergraduate animal sciences courses is analyzed. We use a statistical learning method for comparing the proposed model with the beta, Kumaraswamy, and unit-Weibull regressions. The results show that the UBXII regression provides the best fit and the most accurate predictions. Therefore, it is a valuable alternative and competitive to the well-known regressions for modeling double-bounded variables in the unit interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outlier removal is a fundamental data processing task to ensure the quality of scanned point cloud data (PCD), which is becoming increasing important in industrial applications and reverse engineering. Acquired scanned PCD is usually noisy, sparse and temporarily incoherent. Thus the processing of scanned data is typically an ill-posed problem. In the paper, we present a simple and effective method based on two geometrical characteristics constraints to trim the noisy points. One of the geometrical characteristics is the local density information and another is the deviation from the local fitting plane. The local density based method provides a preprocessing step, which could remove those sparse outlier and isolated outlier. The non-isolated outlier removal in this paper depends on a local projection method, which placing those points onto objects. There is no doubt that the deviation of any point from the local fitting plane should be a criterion to reduce the noisy points. The experimental results demonstrate the ability to remove the noisy point from various man-made objects consisting of complex outlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Malliavin calculus is an extension of the classical calculus of variations from deterministic functions to stochastic processes. In this paper we aim to show in a practical and didactic way how to calculate the Malliavin derivative, the derivative of the expectation of a quantity of interest of a model with respect to its underlying stochastic parameters, for four problems found in mechanics. The non-intrusive approach uses the Malliavin Weight Sampling (MWS) method in conjunction with a standard Monte Carlo method. The models are expressed as ODEs or PDEs and discretised using the finite difference or finite element methods. Specifically, we consider stochastic extensions of; a 1D Kelvin-Voigt viscoelastic model discretised with finite differences, a 1D linear elastic bar, a hyperelastic bar undergoing buckling, and incompressible Navier-Stokes flow around a cylinder, all discretised with finite elements. A further contribution of this paper is an extension of the MWS method to the more difficult case of non-Gaussian random variables and the calculation of second-order derivatives. We provide open-source code for the numerical examples in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the (in)efficiency of the continuum Bitcoin-USD market in the period ranging from mid 2010 to early 2019. To deal with, we dynamically analyse the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD daily returns via accurate FD4 approach by a 512 day sliding window with overlapping data. Further, we define the memory indicator by the difference between the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD series and the self-similarity index of its shuffled series. We also carry out additional analyses via FD4 approach by sliding windows of sizes equal to 64, 128, 256, and 1024 days, and also via FD algorithm for values of q equal to 1 and 2 (and sliding windows equal to 512 days). Moreover, we explored the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of actual S&P500 series via FD4 algorithm by sliding windows of sizes equal to 256 and 512 days. In all the cases, the obtained results were found to be similar to our first analysis. We conclude that the self-similarity exponent of the BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series stands above 0.5. However, this is not due to the presence of significant memory in the series but to its underlying distribution. In fact, it holds that the self-similarity exponent of BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series is similar or lower than the self-similarity index of a random series with the same distribution. As such, several periods with significant antipersistent memory in BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series are distinguished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a new machine vision framework for efficient detection and classification of manufacturing defects in metal boxes. Previous techniques, which are based on either visual inspection or on hand-crafted features, are both inaccurate and time consuming. In this paper, we show that by using autoencoder deep neural network (DNN) architecture, we are able to not only classify manufacturing defects, but also localize them with high accuracy. Compared to traditional techniques, DNNs are able to learn, in a supervised manner, the visual features that achieve the best performance. Our experiments on a database of real images demonstrate that our approach overcomes the state-of-the-art while remaining computationally competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distance sampling is a technique for estimating the abundance of animals or other objects in a region, allowing for imperfect detection. This paper evaluates the statistical efficiency of the method when its assumptions are met, both theoretically and by simulation. The theoretical component of the paper is a derivation of the asymptotic variance penalty for the distance sampling estimator arising from uncertainty about the unknown detection parameters. This asymptotic penalty factor is tabulated for several detection functions. It is typically at least 2 but can be much higher, particularly for steeply declining detection rates. The asymptotic result relies on a model which makes the strong assumption that objects are uniformly distributed across the region. The simulation study relaxes this assumption by incorporating over-dispersion when generating object locations. Distance sampling and strip transect estimators are calculated for simulated data, for a variety of overdispersion factors, detection functions, sample sizes and strip widths. The simulation results confirm the theoretical asymptotic penalty in the non-overdispersed case. For a more realistic overdispersion factor of 2, distance sampling estimation outperforms strip transect estimation when a half-normal distance function is correctly assumed, confirming previous literature. When the hazard rate model is correctly assumed, strip transect estimators have lower mean squared error than the usual distance sampling estimator when the strip width is close enough to its optimal value (± 75% when there are 100 detections; ± 50% when there are 200 detections). Whether the ecologist can set the strip width sufficiently accurately will depend on the circumstances of each particular study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glioma detection and segmentation is a challenging task for radiologists and clinicians. The research reported in this paper seeks to develop a better clinical decision support algorithm for clinicians diagnosis. This paper presents a probabilistic method for detection and segmentation between abnormal tissue regions and brain tumour (tumour core and edema) portions from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). A framework is constructed to learn structure of undirected graphical models that can represent the spatial relationships among variables and apply it to glioma segmentation. Compared with the pixel of image, the superpixel is more consistent with human visual cognition and contains less redundancy, thus, the superpixels are considered as the basic unit of structure learning and glioma segmentation scheme. ℓ1-regularization techniques are applied to learn the appropriate structure for modeling graphical models. Conditional Random Fields (CRF) are used to model the spatial interactions among image superpixel regions and their measurements. A number of features including statistics features, the combined features from the local binary pattern as well as gray level run length, curve features, and fractal features were extracted from each superpixel. The features are then passed by ℓ1-regularization to ensure a robust classification. The proposed method is compared with support vector machine and Fuzzy c-means to classify each superpixel into normal and abnormal tissue. The proposed system is tested for the presence of low grade as well as high grade glioma tumors on images collected from BRATS2013, BRATS2015 data set and Henan Provincial People’s Hospital (HNPPH) data set. The experiments performed provides similarity between segmented and truth image up to 91.5% by correlation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many different physiological processes affect the growth of malignant lesions and their response to therapy. Each of these processes is spatially and genetically heterogeneous; dynamically evolving in time; controlled by many other physiological processes, and intrinsically random and unpredictable. The objective of this paper is to show that all of these properties of cancer physiology can be treated in a unified, mathematically rigorous way via the theory of random processes. We treat each physiological process as a random function of position and time within a tumor, defining the joint statistics of such functions via the infinite-dimensional characteristic functional. The theory is illustrated by analyzing several models of drug delivery and response of a tumor to therapy. To apply the methodology to precision cancer therapy, we use maximum-likelihood estimation with Emission Computed Tomography (ECT) data to estimate unknown patient-specific physiological parameters, ultimately demonstrating how to predict the probability of tumor control for an individual patient undergoing a proposed therapeutic regimen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of unallocated spectrum and increasing demand for bandwidth in wireless networks is forcing new devices and technologies to share frequency bands. Spectrum sensing is a key enabler for frequency sharing and there is a large body of existing work on signal detection methods. However a unified methodology that would be suitable for objective comparison of detection methods based on experimental evaluations is missing. In this paper we propose such a methodology comprised of seven steps that can be applied to evaluate methods in simulation or practical experiments. Using the proposed methodology, we perform the most comprehensive experimental evaluation of signal detection methods to date: we compare energy detection, covariance-based and eigenvalue-based detection and cyclostationary detection. We measure minimal detectable signal power, sensitivity to noise power changes and computational complexity using an experimental setup that covers typical capabilities from low-cost embedded to high-end software defined radio devices. Presented results validate our premise that a unified methodology is valuable in obtaining reliable and reproducible comparisons of signal detection methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several power allocation algorithms for cooperative relay networks are presented in the literature. These contributions assume perfect channel knowledge and capacity achieving codes. However in practice, obtaining the channel state information at a relay or at the destination is an estimation problem and can generally not be error free. The investigation of the power allocation mechanism in a wireless network due to channel imperfections is important because it can severely degrade its performance regarding throughput and bit error rate. In this paper, the impact of imperfect channel state information on the power allocation of an adaptive relay network is investigated. Moreover, a framework including Automatic Repeat reQuest (ARQ) mechanism is provided to make the power allocation mechanism robust against these channel imperfections. For this framework, the end-to-end SNR is calculated considering imperfect channel knowledge using ARQ analytically. The goal is to emphasize the impact of imperfect channel knowledge on the power allocation mechanism. In this paper, the simulation results illustrate the impact of channel uncertainties on the average outage probability, throughput, and consumed sum power for different qualities of channel estimation. It is shown that the presented framework with ARQ is extremely robust against the channel imperfections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate a step-stress partially accelerated lifetime test for the four-component hybrid systems with Type-II progressive hybrid censoring scheme while the life time of system component follows exponential failure rate. In many cases, the exact component causing the system failure cannot be identified and the cause of failure is masked. Based on Type-II progressively hybrid censored and masked data, the maximum likelihood estimations for unknown parameters and acceleration factor are obtained. In addition, approximate confidence interval and bootstrap confidence interval are presented by using the asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimations for unknown parameters and bootstrap method, respectively. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated through the simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an innovative internet of things (IoT) based communication framework for monitoring microgrid under the condition of packet dropouts in measurements. First of all, the microgrid incorporating the renewable distributed energy resources is represented by a state-space model. The IoT embedded wireless sensor network is adopted to sense the system states. Afterwards, the information is transmitted to the energy management system using the communication network. Finally, the least mean square fourth algorithm is explored for estimating the system states. The effectiveness of the developed approach is verified through numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vision-based vehicle detection is an important issue for advanced driver assistance systems. In this paper, we presented an improved multi-vehicle detection and tracking method using cascade Adaboost and Adaptive Kalman filter(AKF) with target identity awareness. A cascade Adaboost classifier using Haar-like features was built for vehicle detection, followed by a more comprehensive verification process which could refine the vehicle hypothesis in terms of both location and dimension. In vehicle tracking, each vehicle was tracked with independent identity by an Adaptive Kalman filter in collaboration with a data association approach. The AKF adaptively adjusted the measurement and process noise covariance through on-line stochastic modelling to compensate the dynamics changes. The data association correctly assigned different detections with tracks using global nearest neighbour(GNN) algorithm while considering the local validation. During tracking, a temporal context based track management was proposed to decide whether to initiate, maintain or terminate the tracks of different objects, thus suppressing the sparse false alarms and compensating the temporary detection failures. Finally, the proposed method was tested on various challenging real roads, and the experimental results showed that the vehicle detection performance was greatly improved with higher accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of contagion among economies is a relevant issue in economics. The canonical model of contagion is an alternative in this case. Given the existence of endogenous variables in the model, instrumental variables can be used to decrease the bias of the OLS estimator. In the presence of heteroskedastic disturbances this paper proposes the use of conditional volatilities as instruments. Simulation is used to show that the homoscedastic and heteroskedastic estimators which use them as instruments have small bias. These estimators are preferable in comparison with the OLS estimator and their asymptotic distribution can be used to construct confidence intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geometric phases describe how in a continuous-time dynamical system the displacement of a variable (called phase variable) can be related to other variables (shape variables) undergoing a cyclic motion, according to an area rule. The aim of this paper is to show that geometric phases can exist also for discrete-time systems, and even when the cycles in shape space have zero area. A context in which this principle can be applied is stock trading. A zero-area cycle in shape space represents the type of trading operations normally carried out by high-frequency traders (entering and exiting a position on a fast time-scale), while the phase variable represents the cash balance of a trader. Under the assumption that trading impacts stock prices, even zero-area cyclic trading operations can induce geometric phases, i.e., profits or losses, without affecting the stock quote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generating synthetic baseline populations is a fundamental step of agent-based modeling and simulation, which is growing fast in a wide range of socio-economic areas including transportation planning research. Traditionally, in many commercial and non-commercial microsimulation systems, the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure has been used for creating the joint distribution of individuals when combining a reference joint distribution with target marginal distributions. Although IPF is simple, computationally efficient, and rigorously founded, it is unclear whether IPF well preserves the dependence structure of the reference joint table sufficiently when fitting it to target margins. In this paper, a novel method is proposed based on the copula concept in order to provide an alternative approach to the problem that IPF resolves. The dependency characteristic measures were computed and the results from the proposed method and IPF were compared. In most test cases, the proposed method outperformed IPF in preserving the dependence structure of the reference joint distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic risks within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor’s behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased risk. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance model along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a worst-case weighted approach to the multi-objective n-person non-zero sum game model where each player has more than one competing objective. Our “worst-case weighted multi-objective game” model supposes that each player has a set of weights to its objectives and wishes to minimize its maximum weighted sum objectives where the maximization is with respect to the set of weights. This new model gives rise to a new Pareto Nash equilibrium concept, which we call “robust-weighted Nash equilibrium”. We prove that the robust-weighted Nash equilibria are guaranteed to exist even when the weight sets are unbounded. For the worst-case weighted multi-objective game with the weight sets of players all given as polytope, we show that a robust-weighted Nash equilibrium can be obtained by solving a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). For an application, we illustrate the usefulness of the worst-case weighted multi-objective game to a supply chain risk management problem under demand uncertainty. By the comparison with the existed weighted approach, we show that our method is more robust and can be more efficiently used for the real-world applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the problem of establishing a network among the stocks of a market at high frequency level and give an application to program trading. Our work uses high frequency data from the National Stock Exchange, India, for the year 2014. To begin, we analyse the spectrum of the correlation matrix to establish the presence of linear relations amongst the stock returns. A comparison of correlations with pairwise mutual information shows the further existence of non-linear relations which are not captured by correlation. We also see that the non-linear relations are more pronounced at the high frequency level in comparison to the daily returns used in earlier work. We provide two applications of this approach. First, we construct minimal spanning trees for the stock network based on mutual information and study their topology. The year 2014 saw the conduct of general elections in India and the data allows us to explore their impact on aspects of the network, such as the scale-free property and sectorial clusters. Second, having established the presence of non-linear relations, we would like to be able to exploit them. Previous authors have suggested that peripheral stocks in the network would make good proxies for the Markowitz portfolio but with a much smaller number of stocks. We show that peripheral stocks selected using mutual information perform significantly better than ones selected using correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major tenet in theoretical neuroscience is that cognitive and behavioral processes are ultimately implemented in terms of the neural system dynamics. Accordingly, a major aim for the analysis of neurophysiological measurements should lie in the identification of the computational dynamics underlying task processing. Here we advance a state space model (SSM) based on generative piecewise-linear recurrent neural networks (PLRNN) to assess dynamics from neuroimaging data. In contrast to many other nonlinear time series models which have been proposed for reconstructing latent dynamics, our model is easily interpretable in neural terms, amenable to systematic dynamical systems analysis of the resulting set of equations, and can straightforwardly be transformed into an equivalent continuous-time dynamical system. The major contributions of this paper are the introduction of a new observation model suitable for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) coupled to the latent PLRNN, an efficient stepwise training procedure that forces the latent model to capture the ‘true’ underlying dynamics rather than just fitting (or predicting) the observations, and of an empirical measure based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to evaluate from empirical time series how well this goal of approximating the underlying dynamics has been achieved. We validate and illustrate the power of our approach on simulated ‘ground-truth’ dynamical systems as well as on experimental fMRI time series, and demonstrate that the learnt dynamics harbors task-related nonlinear structure that a linear dynamical model fails to capture. Given that fMRI is one of the most common techniques for measuring brain activity non-invasively in human subjects, this approach may provide a novel step toward analyzing aberrant (nonlinear) dynamics for clinical assessment or neuroscientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of high-throughput sequencing technologies for 16S rRNA gene profiling provides higher quality compositional data for microbe communities. Inferring the direct interaction network under a specific condition and understanding how the network structure changes between two different environmental or genetic conditions are two important topics in biological studies. However, the compositional nature and high dimensionality of the data are challenging in the context of network and differential network recovery. To address this problem in the present paper, we proposed two new loss functions to incorporate the data transformations developed for compositional data analysis into D-trace loss for network and differential network estimation, respectively. The sparse matrix estimators are defined as the minimizer of the corresponding lasso penalized loss. Our method is characterized by its straightforward application based on the ADMM algorithm for numerical solution. Simulations show that the proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in network and differential network inference under different scenarios. Finally, as an illustration, our method is applied to a mouse skin microbiome data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People are connected by various social networks, resulting in the interdependence of consumer choice. Therefore, it is very important and realistic to assume choice interdependence in private car ownership modeling. In this paper, we investigate the interdependence of private car ownership choice using a spatial autoregressive binary probit model estimated by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Constructing the autoregressive matrix demographically shows that the private car ownership choice of a household is dependent on other household choices. Compared with the pure binary probit model estimated by the MCMC method, the spatial autoregressive model achieves a significant improvement both in loglikelihood value and log marginal density value, which are calculated using the importance sampling method of Newton and Raftery, from approximately -202 to approximately -63 and from -208 to -145, respectively. Moreover, the results indicated by the spatial autoregressive probit model suggest that the number of children, the ownership of an apartment or the availability of a parking lot are positively and significantly associated with the private car ownership level. To test the out-of-sample performance of the model, we estimate the model using 600 data points and test it using another 148 data points. The results indicate that the predictive power is greatly improved. Finally, we analyze the augmented parameter and discover that it is associated with the parking variable in addition to the license variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in modeling contemporary crime trends, a task that has historically been considered valuable to the public, researchers, and policymakers, is resurging. Advancements in criminology have made it clear that understanding crime trends necessarily involves understanding trends in how likely individuals are to report crimes to the police, as well as how likely the police are to accurately record those crimes. In this paper, we use dynamic linear models to simultaneously model the time series for several crime types in order to gain insight into trends in crime and crime reporting. We analyze crime data from Chicago spanning 2007 through 2016 and show how correlations in the way crime trends evolve may contain information about drivers of crime and crime reporting. We provide evidence of substantial differences in the relationships between the trends of crimes of different types depending on whether crimes are violent or nonviolent and whether or not crimes are tracked in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feature screening has become a real prerequisite for the analysis of high-dimensional genomic data, as it is effective in reducing dimensionality and removing redundant features. However, existing methods for feature screening have been mostly relying on the assumptions of linear effects and independence (or weak dependence) between features, which might be inappropriate in real practice. In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting continuous features for a categorical outcome from high-dimensional data. We propose a powerful statistical procedure that consists of two steps, a nonparametric significance test based on edge count and a multiple testing procedure with dependence adjustment for false discovery rate control. The new method presents two novelties. First, the edge-count test directly targets distributional difference between groups, therefore it is sensitive to nonlinear effects. Second, we relax the independence assumption and adapt Efron’s procedure to adjust for the dependence between features. The performance of the proposed procedure, in terms of statistical power and false discovery rate, is illustrated by simulated data. We apply the new method to three genomic datasets to identify genes associated with colon, cervical and prostate cancers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quigley derived his hybrid price model to improve the precision of predicted prices of sold homes by statistically merging data of resold homes in a repeat sales model with that of once-sold homes in a single sales hedonic price model. The literature has few applications of the hybrid model aside from those by Quigley and his collaborators. Two reasons for this underuse may be its computational intensiveness and its marginal empirical improvement in comparison with two other models. This paper first demystifies this computational intensiveness by calibrating models in Microsoft Excel with transferable procedures into other software. It second evaluates the hybrid price model’s empirical improvement as a reason for its underuse by predicting prices of 2,559 sold and resold homes observed in two inner-city neighbourhoods in Windsor, Ontario, during a 30-year period. The results as hypothesized are its lower standard errors of regression coefficients and higher simple R-squared than those of a single sales hedonic price model. Moreover, the hybrid model’s predictions have higher correlations than those of the single sales model with not only in-sample observed prices or changes in prices but also out-of-sample ones. The conclusion speculates in plans for future research about reasons for two models’ similar or dissimilar regression coefficients and standard errors predicting correspondingly similar or dissimilar sale prices of homes through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facial attractiveness is a complex human trait of great interest in both academia and industry. Literature on sociological and phenotypic factors associated with facial attractiveness is rich, but its genetic basis is poorly understood. In this paper, we conducted a genome-wide association study to discover genetic variants associated with facial attractiveness using 4,383 samples in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. We identified two genome-wide significant loci, highlighted a handful of candidate genes, and demonstrated enrichment for heritability in human tissues involved in reproduction and hormone synthesis. Additionally, facial attractiveness showed strong and negative genetic correlations with BMI in females and with blood lipids in males. Our analysis also suggested sex-specific selection pressure on variants associated with lower male attractiveness. These results revealed sex-specific genetic architecture of facial attractiveness and provided fundamental new insights into its genetic basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important segment of the reliability-based optimization problems is to get access to the sensitivity derivatives. However, since the failure probability is not a closed-form function of the input variables, the derivatives are not explicitly computable and rather require a full reliability analysis which is computationally expensive. In this paper, a step-by-step algorithm has been presented to calculate the derivatives of the probability of failure and safety index with respect to the input parameters based on the advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) reliability method. The proposed algorithm is then implemented in a spreadsheet using Visual Basic for Application (VBA) programming language. Two geotechnical and structural examples are then presented to examine the program and describe the modeling procedure. The robustness of the proposed method is examined using a Gaussian random perturbation. The capability of the proposed method in the calculation of the sensitivity derivatives of the model uncertainty is explained in a separate section. Finally, the proposed model has been compared to the forward finite difference (FFD) method and the results are validated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) method is introduced for simultaneous system identification and denoising in conjunction with the adoption of an extended Kalman filter algorithm. The present paper explains the extended-Kalman-filter-based DMD (EKFDMD) algorithm which is an online algorithm for dataset for a small number of degree of freedom (DoF). It also illustrates that EKFDMD requires significant numerical resources for many-degree-of-freedom (many-DoF) problems and that the combination with truncated proper orthogonal decomposition (trPOD) helps us to apply the EKFDMD algorithm to many-DoF problems, though it prevents the algorithm from being fully online. The numerical experiments of a noisy dataset with a small number of DoFs illustrate that EKFDMD can estimate eigenvalues better than or as well as the existing algorithms, whereas EKFDMD can also denoise the original dataset online. In particular, EKFDMD performs better than existing algorithms for the case in which system noise is present. The EKFDMD with trPOD, which unfortunately is not fully online, can be successfully applied to many-DoF problems, including a fluid-problem example, and the results reveal the superior performance of system identification and denoising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Professional sporting organisations invest considerable resources collecting and analysing data in order to better understand the factors that influence performance. Recent advances in non-invasive technologies, such as global positioning systems (GPS), mean that large volumes of data are now readily available to coaches and sport scientists. However analysing such data can be challenging, particularly when sample sizes are small and data sets contain multiple highly correlated variables, as is often the case in a sporting context. Multicollinearity in particular, if not treated appropriately, can be problematic and might lead to erroneous conclusions. In this paper we present a novel ‘leave one variable out’ (LOVO) partial least squares correlation analysis (PLSCA) methodology, designed to overcome the problem of multicollinearity, and show how this can be used to identify the training load (TL) variables that influence most ‘end fitness’ in young rugby league players. Methods: The accumulated TL of sixteen male professional youth rugby league players (17.7 ± 0.9 years) was quantified via GPS, a micro-electrical-mechanical-system (MEMS), and players’ session-rating-of-perceived-exertion (sRPE) over a 6-week pre-season training period. Immediately prior to and following this training period, participants undertook a 30–15 intermittent fitness test (30-15IFT), which was used to determine a players ‘starting fitness’ and ‘end fitness’. In total twelve TL variables were collected, and these along with ‘starting fitness’ as a covariate were regressed against ‘end fitness’. However, considerable multicollinearity in the data (VIF >1000 for nine variables) meant that the multiple linear regression (MLR) process was unstable and so we developed a novel LOVO PLSCA adaptation to quantify the relative importance of the predictor variables and thus minimise multicollinearity issues. As such, the LOVO PLSCA was used as a tool to inform and refine the MLR process. Results: The LOVO PLSCA identified the distance accumulated at very-high speed (>7 m·s-1) as being the most important TL variable to influence improvement in player fitness, with this variable causing the largest decrease in singular value inertia (5.93). When included in a refined linear regression model, this variable, along with ‘starting fitness’ as a covariate, explained 73% of the variance in v30-15IFT ‘end fitness’ (p<0.001) and eliminated completely any multicollinearity issues. Conclusions: The LOVO PLSCA technique appears to be a useful tool for evaluating the relative importance of predictor variables in data sets that exhibit considerable multicollinearity. When used as a filtering tool, LOVO PLSCA produced a MLR model that demonstrated a significant relationship between ‘end fitness’ and the predictor variable ‘accumulated distance at very-high speed’ when ‘starting fitness’ was included as a covariate. As such, LOVO PLSCA may be a useful tool for sport scientists and coaches seeking to analyse data sets obtained using GPS and MEMS technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Research demonstrates a negative relationship between alcohol use and affect, but the value of deprecation is unknown and thus cannot be included in estimates of the cost of alcohol to society. This paper aims to examine this relationship and develop econometric techniques to value the loss in affect attributable to alcohol consumption. Methods: Cross-sectional (n = 129,437) and longitudinal (n = 11,352) analyses of alcohol consumers in UK Biobank data were undertaken, with depression and neuroticism as proxies of negative affect. The cross-sectional relationship between household income, negative affect and alcohol consumption were analysed using regression models, controlling for confounding variables, and using within-between random models that are robust to unobserved heterogeneity. The differential in household income required to offset alcohol’s detriment to affect was derived. Results: A consistent relationship between depression and alcohol consumption (β = 0.001, z = 7.64) and neuroticism and alcohol consumption (β = 0.001, z = 9.24) was observed in cross-sectional analyses, replicated in within-between models (depression β = 0.001, z = 2.32; neuroticism β = 0.001, z = 2.33). Significant associations were found between household income and depression (cross sectional β = -0.157, z = -23.86, within-between β = -0.146, z = -9.51) and household income and neuroticism (cross sectional β = -0.166, z = -32.02, within-between β = -0.158, z = -7.44). The value of reducing alcohol consumption by one gram/day was pooled and estimated to be £209.06 (95% CI £171.84 to £246.27). Conclusions: There was a robust relationship between alcohol consumption and negative affect. Econometric methods can value the intangible effects of alcohol use and may, therefore, facilitate the fiscal determination of benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typical underground water storage facilities consist of reinforced concrete tanks and pipes. Although methods of their analysis are well developed, the use of these methods does not always give unambiguous results, as presented in the paper. An example of underground tank is considered in which cylindrical roof collapsed during construction under soil and excavator loads. The causes of failure are investigated with deterministic and stochastic models. In the first step nonlinear finite element analysis including soil-structure interaction was performed to examine overall level of the structural safety, which was found satisfactory thus not explaining the collapse. In the second step an analytical stochastic model was developed and analysed with emphasis to sensitivity. The last analysis explained the collapse as a complex of unfavourable states for considered variables and the failure was recognised as a mixed construction-geotechnical-structural problem. The key role played backfill properties and its depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterogeneous mobile authentication is a crucial technique to securely retrieve the resource of e-healthcare cloud servers which are commonly implemented in a public key Infrastructure (PKI). Conventionally, a mobile data user can utilize a self-chosen password along with a portable device to request the access privilege of clouds. However, to validate the membership of users, a cloud server usually has to make use of a password table, which not only increases the burden of management, but also raises the possibility of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a secure heterogeneous mobile authentication and key agreement scheme for e-healthcare cloud systems. In our system structure, an e-healthcare cloud server of traditional PKIs does not have to store a password table. A legitimate data user only possesses a security token hardware and keeps an offline updatable password without using any private key. Our scheme is classified into the category of dynamic ID authentication techniques, since a data user is able to preserve his/her anonymity during authentication processes. We formally prove that the proposed mechanism fulfills the essential authenticated key exchange (AKE) security and owns lower computational costs. To further ensure the practical application security, an automatic security validation tool called AVISPA is also adopted to analyze possible attacks and pitfalls of our designed protocol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since multi-view data are available in many real-world clustering problems, multi-view clustering has received considerable attention in recent years. Most existing multi-view clustering methods learn consensus clustering results but do not make full use of the distinct knowledge in each view so that they cannot well guarantee the complementarity across different views. In this paper, we propose a Distinction based Consensus Spectral Clustering (DCSC), which not only learns a consensus result of clustering, but also explicitly captures the distinct variance of each view. It is by using the distinct variance of each view that DCSC can learn a clearer consensus clustering result. In order to optimize the introduced optimization problem effectively, we develop a block coordinate descent algorithm which is theoretically guaranteed to converge. Experimental results on real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maternal mortality remains very high in Mozambique, with estimates from 2015 showing a maternal mortality ratio of 489 deaths per 100,000 live births, even though the rates tend to decrease since 1990. Pregnancy related hemorrhage, gestational hypertension and diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS are amongst the leading causes of maternal death in Mozambique, and a significant number of these deaths occur within health facilities. Often, the analysis of data on maternal mortality involves the use of counts of maternal deaths as outcome variable. Previously we showed that a class of hierarchical zero-inflated models were very successful in dealing with overdispersion and clustered counts when analyzing data on maternal deaths and related risk factors within health facilities in Mozambique. This paper aims at providing additional insights over previous analyses and presents an extension of such models to account for spatial variation in a disease mapping framework of facility-based maternal mortality in Mozambique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals’ preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) become increasingly important for assessing the effectiveness of a drug or medical device. In order for a PROM to be claimed in labeling, the PROM has to be valid, reliable and able to detect a change if the targeted disease status changes. One approach to assess the quality of a patient reported outcome measure (PROM) is to investigate the association between the PROM and an objective clinical endpoint measuring the status of a disease/condition. However, methods assessing the association between continuous and discrete variables are limited, especially for correlated measurements. In this paper, we propose a method to assess such association with any type of samples with or without correlation. The method involves estimating the probability revealing the status of a subject’s disease/condition (called truth thereafter) through the subject’s reported outcomes. The probability is a conditional probability revealing truth given the relative location of the subject’s objective outcome compared to the subject-specific latent threshold in the objective endpoint. A consistent estimator for the probability is derived. The operating characteristics of the consistent estimator are illustrated using simulation. Our method is applied to hypothetical clinical trial data generated for an ophthalmic device as an illustration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to difficulties in accurately predicting the emergency timing and the magnitude of a disaster, operations for perishable emergency inventory planning often encounter expiration and shortage problems. In order to ease the expiration problem in emergency medicine preparation inventories, this paper investigates an emergency medicine closed-loop supply chain for returning unused items from an ERC (Emergency Reserve Center) to a hospital. To assure that the return strategy is meaningful, we propose a critical parameter that we term the latest return time, after which the remaining emergency medicine in the ERC cannot be returned to the hospital. In addition, the short lifetime of emergency products and uncertainty about demand time and demand quantity are also considered in this emergency inventory planning system. In analyzing the optimal ordering policies, we find that the two threshold values for the predefined return time, which affect the total costs, are not monotonous; rather, the direction of their effect is first down, then up, and then down again, which means that a better predefined value of the latest return time can be determined by minimizing total costs. By studying and comparing decentralized and centralized decisions, we find that the centralized decision system works better to control expiration and costs. Therefore, we design a coordination mechanism for the cooperation between the ERC and the hospital. Our analysis shows that we should not ignore the emergency uncertainty and perishability of emergency items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015-16 Zika epidemic spread quickly from north to south in Brazil. Two striking features were the much higher incidence in young adult women due to sexual transmission, and the serious congenital malformations and miscarriages associated to Zika infection in pregnant women. In this paper we use case reporting data along with live-birth records to reconstruct the full size of the epidemic through a Bayesian probabilistic graph model representing the Zika transmission probabilities of observation (case reporting) and of birth loss (through miscarriage or abortion). We find that the probability of observing (reporting) a Zika case is different between men and women and ranges between 10 to 13%. From these estimates we reconstruct the full size of the Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro in 2015-16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hypothesis testing in contingency tables is usually based on asymptotic results, thereby restricting its proper use to large samples. To study these tests in small samples, we consider the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and define an accurate index for the celebrated hypotheses of homogeneity, independence, and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The aim is to understand the use of the asymptotic results of the frequentist Likelihood Ratio Test and the Bayesian FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) under small-sample scenarios. The proposed exact LRT p-value is used as a benchmark to understand the other indices. We perform analysis in different scenarios, considering different sample sizes and different table dimensions. The conditional Fisher’s exact test for 2 × 2 tables and the Barnard’s exact test are also discussed. The main message of this paper is that all indices have very similar behavior, except for Fisher and Barnard tests that has a discrete behavior. The most powerful test was the asymptotic p-value from the likelihood ratio test, suggesting that is a good alternative for small sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2-sample mark-recapture method with Chapman’s estimator is often used by inland fishery managers to estimate the reach-scale abundance of stream fish. An important assumption of this method is that no dispersal into or out of the study reach occurs between the two samples. Violations of this assumption are probably common in practice, but their effect on bias (systematic error) of abundance estimates is poorly understood, especially in small populations. Estimation methods permitting dispersal exist but, for logistical reasons, often are infeasible for routine assessments in streams. The purpose of this paper is to extend available results regarding effects of dispersal on the bias of Chapman’s estimator as applied to reach-scale studies of stream fish abundance. We examine for the first time the joint effects of dispersal and sampling variation on the bias of this estimator. To reduce the bias effects of dispersal, we propose a modified sampling scheme in which the original study reach is expanded, a central subreach is sampled during the mark session (sample 1), and the entire reach is sampled during the recapture session (sample 2). This modified sampling scheme can substantially reduce bias effects of dispersal without requiring unique marking of individual fish or additional site visits. Analytical and simulation results show that sampling variation tends to create negative bias with respect to study-reach abundance, while dispersal tends to create positive bias; the net effect can be positive, negative, or zero, depending on the true abundance, capture probabilities, and amount and nature of dispersal. In most cases, simply expanding the study reach is an effective way to reduce dispersal-related bias of Chapman’s estimator, but expanding the study reach and employing the modified sampling scheme we propose is a better alternative for accurately estimating abundance with the same level of sampling effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]