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Vulnerable locations, such as coastlines, are at a high risk of loss and damage. Such places will suffer deleterious impacts as climate change impacts are increasingly realized. As societies try to adapt to these impacts, managed or planned retreat—aimed at moving people and assets away from vulnerable locations—is gaining increased attention. Despite this increased attention, systematic literature reviews of the retreat literature remain scarce. This paper undertakes such review and uncovers a marked increase in retreat scholarly research papers in the past 5 years. An analysis of 135 managed and planned retreat journal articles is completed. Findings include a strong emphasis on regional or local case studies exploring governance, policy or institutional settings and levers across a range of geographies. Property rights and market interventions, such as compensation schemes, evidence the prevalence of neoliberal predilections. This emphasizes the importance of renewed engagement with political economy scholarship vis-à-vis climate change adaptation, also supported by the sharp increase in the evidenced social and environmental justice impacts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of Eunice Foote (1819-1888) to early understanding of the relationship between atmospheric gases and climate change has become a focus of interest in the scholarly community and more widely on social media. In this article we offer a detailed interpretation of both of her known published papers, focusing particularly on her first and most significant paper of 1856, in which she related changes in the types and amounts of atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide, to warming and changes in climate. We trace the derivation of her ideas and explore how she constructed, carried out, and interpreted her experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on the failure to account for the value of standing tropical forests, and of ecosystem services in general, in economic decision-making. This blindness to the values of nature has led to overexploitation, degradation and destruction of tropical forests, which, in turn, has also significantly contributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Forest conservation and restoration has a critical role to play in the fight against climate change and brings a vast array of additional benefits, from security in water, energy, food, health and livelihoods to maintaining biodiversity itself as a core component of our living planet. As first Minister of Environment and Energy under President Oscar Arias (1986-1990), I brought these views into societal decision-making in Costa Rica and here I briefly describe how. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Higher levels of economic activity are often accompanied by higher energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80% of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to climate change. Under the assumption of sufficiently elastic demand, this reality of global economic development based on permanent growth of economic activity, brings into play the Jevons Paradox, which hypothesises that increases in the efficiency of resource use leads to increases in resource consumption. Previous research on the rebound effects has limitations, including a lack of studies on the connection between reinforcement learning and environmental consequences. This paper develops a mathematical model and computer simulator to study the effects of micro-level exploration–exploitation strategies on efficiency, consumption and sustainability, considering different levels of direct and indirect rebound effects. Our model shows how optimal exploration–exploitation strategies for increasing efficiency can lead to unsustainable development patterns if they are not accompanied by demand reduction measures, which are essential for mitigating climate change. Moreover, our paper speaks to the broader issue of efficiency traps by highlighting how indirect rebound effects not only affect primary energy (PE) consumption and GHG emissions, but also resource consumption in other domains. By linking these issues together, our study sheds light on the complexities and interdependencies involved in achieving sustainable development goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geodiversity has shaped and structured the Earth's surface at all spatio-temporal scales, not only through long-term processes but also through medium- and short-term processes. Geodiversity is, therefore, a key control and regulating variable in the overall development of landscapes and biodiversity. However, climate change and land use intensity are leading to major changes and disturbances in bio- and geodiversity. For sustainable ecosystem management, temporal, economically viable and standardized monitoring is needed to monitor and model the effects and changes in vegetation- and geodiversity. RS approaches have been used for this purpose for decades. However, to understand in detail how RS approaches capture vegetation- and geodiversity, the aim of this paper is to describe how five features of vegetation- and geodiversity are captured using RS technologies, namely: (i) trait diversity, (ii) phylogenetic/genese diversity, (iii) structural diversity, (iv) taxonomic diversity and (v) functional diversity. Trait diversity is essential for establishing the other four. Traits provide a crucial interface between in situ, close-range, aerial and space-based RS monitoring approaches. The trait approach allows complex data of different types and formats to be linked using the latest semantic data integration techniques, which will enable ecosystem integrity monitoring and modelling in the future. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent debates on climate mobilities have largely ignored the dynamics of mobility patterns including short-distance and short-duration circular movements to enhance adaptative capacity and resilience of households and individuals, enabling them to remain in place despite facing increasingly severe climatic risks. This paper explores Pacific Islanders' climate-related mobilities with reference to cases from Samoa. It first conceptualizes Samoan mobility, which is rooted in Samoan culture, norms and worldviews, and then uses this as a framework to examine ways in which people shift and diversify their residential locations for climate-associated reasons. The study employs a comparative case study approach using conversational (the Pacific-originated talanoa -style) interviews with 40 participants in two villages in Samoa-one urban and the other rural. Findings suggest that shifting spatially and temporarily between two residences (a practice called fa'a-'āigalua ) occurs not only within the village but across villages. Thereby, villagers reduce the risk of incurring physical harm from climate-related disasters, while minimizing the risk of cultural harm from place detachment. Our study challenges the discourse of 'vulnerable Pacific Islanders' by demonstrating the adaptability of Samoans to changing socio-ecological and climatic circumstances and their ability to develop a variety of climate resilience strategies, including micro-mobilities and circular migration. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Successful climate change adaptation depends on the spread and maintenance of adaptive behaviours. Current theory suggests that the heterogeneity of metapopulation structure can help adaptations diffuse throughout a population. In this paper, we develop an agent-based model of the spread of adaptations in populations with minority-majority metapopulation structure, where subpopulations learn more or less frequently from their own group compared to the other group. In our simulations, minority-majority-structured populations with moderate degrees of in-group preference better spread and maintained an adaptation compared to populations with more equal-sized groups and weak homophily. Minority groups act as incubators for an adaptation, while majority groups act as reservoirs for an adaptation once it has spread widely. This means that adaptations diffuse throughout populations better when minority groups start out knowing an adaptation, as Indigenous populations often do, while cohesion among majority groups further promotes adaptation diffusion. Our work advances the goal of this theme issue by developing new theoretical insights and demonstrating the utility of cultural evolutionary theory and methods as important tools in the nascent science of culture that climate change adaptation needs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of archaeology in discussions about how humans have contributed to and dealt with climate change, especially in the long term. We suggest Niche Construction Theory as a suitable framework to that end. In order to take into account both human and environmental variability, we also advocate for a situated perspective that includes the Global South as a source of knowledge production, and the Neotropics as a relevant case study to consider. To illustrate this, we review the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal period in the southern Puna and continental Patagonia, both in southern South America, by assessing the challenges posed by this climate period and the archaeological signatures of the time from a Niche Construction Theory perspective. Finally, we emphasize the importance of these considerations for policymaking. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Worldwide, marginalized and low-income communities will disproportionately suffer climate change impacts while also retaining the least political power to mitigate their consequences. To adapt to environmental shocks, communities must balance intensifying natural resource consumption with the need to ensure the sustainability of ecosystem provisioning services. Thus, scientists have long been providing policy recommendations that seek to balance humanitarian needs with the best outcomes for the conservation of ecosystems and wildlife. However, many conservation and development practitioners from biological backgrounds receive minimal training in either social research methods or participatory project design. Without a clear understanding of the sociocultural factors shaping decision-making, their initiatives may fail to meet their goals, even when communities support proposed initiatives. This paper explores the underlying assumptions of a community's agency, or its ability to develop and enact preferred resilience-enhancing adaptations. We present a context-adaptable toolkit to assess community agency, identify barriers to adaptation, and survey perceptions of behaviour change around natural resource conservation and alternative food acquisition strategies. This tool draws on public health and ecology methods to facilitate conversations between community members, practitioners and scientists. We then provide insights from the toolkit's collaborative development and pilot testing with Vezo fishing communities in southwestern Madagascar. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

A good deal of contemporary work in cultural evolutionary theory focuses on the adaptive significance of culture. In this paper, we make the case that scientifically accurate and politically feasible responses to the climate crisis require a complex understanding of human cultural practices of niche construction that moves beyond the adaptive significance of culture. We develop this thesis in two related ways. First, we argue that cumulative cultural practices of niche construction can generate stable equilibria and runaway selection processes that result in long-term existential risks within and across cultural groups. We dub this the back of the invisible hand . Second, we argue that the ability of cultural groups to innovate technological solutions to environmental problems is highly constrained in ways that are exacerbated by sustained intergroup conflict, inequality and by inherently unpredictable cascades in climate change and human migration patterns. After developing these theoretical points about human cultural practices of niche construction in detail, we conclude our discussion with some tentative practical suggestions about the way that cultural evolutionary history can more fruitfully be used in efforts to remit the climate crisis and contribute to sustainable practices of human climate change adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

There is global consensus that we must immediately prioritize climate change adaptation-change in response to or anticipation of risks from climate change. Some researchers and policymakers urge 'transformative change', a complete break from past practices, yet report having little data on whether new practices reduce the risks communities face, even over the short term. However, researchers have some leads: human communities have long generated solutions to changing climate, and scientists who study culture have examples of effective and persistent solutions. This theme issue discusses cultural adaptation to climate change, and in this paper, we review how processes of biological adaptation, including innovation, modification, selective retention and transmission, shape the landscapes decision-makers care about-from which solutions emerge in communities, to the spread of effective adaptations, to regional or global collective action. We introduce a comprehensive portal of data and models on cultural adaptation to climate change, and we outline ways forward. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

The Anthropocene is defined by marked acceleration in human-induced perturbations to the Earth system. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and attendant changes to the global carbon cycle are among the most profound and pervasive of these perturbations. Determining the magnitude, nature and pace of these carbon cycle changes is crucial for understanding the future climate that ecosystems and humanity will experience and need to respond to. This special issue illustrates the value of radiocarbon as a tool to shed important light on the nature, magnitude and pace of carbon cycle change. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa, the cradle of human evolution, has one of the largest and most diverse rainforests in the world. The African rainforests contain evidence of human occupation as well as fluctuating climate during the Pleistocene; such evidence offers archaeologists and palaeoecologists the opportunity to understand how climatic fluctuations have influenced human behaviour. However, compared to the rainforests environments in Asia and South America, the human ecological history of those in West-Central Africa is poorly understood. This is because of comparatively fewer scientific programmes which synergize palaeoecological and archaeological data and thus could enhance the knowledge and allow for an evaluation of the impact of climatic fluctuations on human behaviour in the rainforests of West-Central Africa during the Pleistocene and Holocene periods. The goals of this paper are twofold, namely: (i) to provide a synthesis of the past climatic variability in the rainforests of West-Central Africa, and (ii) to demonstrate the influence of such variability on human behaviour during the Pleistocene to Holocene periods. It is hoped that this paper will stimulate Africanists to adopt an inclusive scientific anthropological and palaeoecological approach in understanding human–climate interactions in the West-Central African rainforests. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atoll societies have adapted their environments and social systems for thousands of years, but the rapid pace of climate change may bring conditions that exceed their adaptive capacities. There is growing interest in the use of 'nature-based solutions' to facilitate the continuation of dignified and meaningful lives on atolls through a changing climate. However, there remains insufficient evidence to conclude that these can make a significant contribution to adaptation on atolls, let alone to develop standards and guidelines for their implementation. A sustained programme of research to clarify the potential of nature-based solutions to support the habitability of atolls is therefore vital. In this paper, we provide a prospectus to guide this research programme: we explain the challenge climate change poses to atoll societies, discuss past and potential future applications of nature-based solutions and outline an agenda for transdisciplinary research to advance knowledge of the efficacy and feasibility of nature-based solutions to sustain the habitability of atolls. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.

This paper explores the past, present and future role of broadcasting, above all via the medium of television, in shaping how societies talk, think about and act on climate change and sustainability issues. The paper explores these broad themes via a focus on the important but relatively neglected issue of material demand and opportunities for its reduction. It takes the outputs and decision-making of one of the world's most influential broadcasters, the BBC, as its primary focus. The paper considers these themes in terms of stories, touching on some of the broader societal frames of understanding into which they can be grouped. Media decision-makers and producers from a range of genres frequently return to the centrality of 'story' in the development, commissioning and production of an idea. With reference to specific examples of programming, and drawing on interviews with media practitioners, the paper considers the challenges of generating broadcast stories that can inspire engagement in issues around climate change, and specifically material demand. The concluding section proposes actions and approaches that might help to establish material demand reduction as a prominent way of thinking about climate change and environmental issues more widely. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that in February 2021, the (third) Commonwealth Science Conference (CSC) was coorganized by the Royal Society and the African Academy of Sciences. As 2021 was not like any other year, the meeting took place virtually from 22–26 February 2021. One of the aims of the CSC is to improve research links between outstanding early career researchers and scientists representing a range of disciplines.

Science has a role to play in providing the evidence on both climate change and the solutions to it. In this paper, we look at the nature of expert advice to public policymakers and examine one approach to the synthesis of scientific evidence. We focus on a series of briefings for policymakers that summarize evidence from 12 areas of science and technology which are keys to accelerating progress towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions and resilience to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors offer a response to their article regarding the global variation in thermal tolerances and the vulnerability of endotherms to climate change. They express their views on the criticism of their paper on the inadequate measures of species' upper critical temperatures (UCT) and their thermo-neutral zone (TNZ) due to small numbers of individuals in the experiments. They note the benefit of the future macrophysiological analyses from more transparent criteria for data selection.

The global economy will face significant challenges over the next few decades. On the one hand, it must meet the needs of 7 billion consumers (growing to 9 billion by 2050), including the currently unmet basic needs of large numbers in developing countries in areas such as food, energy, housing and health. On the other hand, it must achieve this growth without exceeding the resources available on the planet or causing environmental devastation. This paper argues that such change is possible through a systemic shift to a frugal economy that involves radical, frugal innovation across sectors. Such a transformation will involve the participation of large and small firms, consumers and governments alike. The paper introduces the notion of frugal innovation--the creation of faster, better and cheaper solutions for more people that employ minimal resources--and discusses strategies and examples of such change already taking place in core sectors like manufacturing, food, automotive and energy in developing and developed economies. It also outlines the role of the interaction between large and small firms as well as between firms and consumers in making change possible, as well as the role of governments in driving change where market mechanisms alone will not suffice. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, emissions of which have vital consequences for global climate change. Understanding and quantifying the sources (and sinks) of atmospheric methane is integral for climate change mitigation and emission reduction strategies, such as those outlined in the 2015 UN Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are ongoing international efforts to constrain the global methane budget, using a wide variety of measurement platforms across a range of spatial and temporal scales. The advancements in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology over the past decade have opened up a new avenue for methane emission quantification. UAVs can be uniquely equipped to monitor natural and anthropogenic emissions at local scales, displaying clear advantages in versatility and manoeuvrability relative to other platforms. Their use is not without challenge, however: further miniaturization of high-performance methane instrumentation is needed to fully use the benefits UAVs afford. Developments in the models used to simulate atmospheric transport and dispersion across small, local scales are also crucial to improved flux accuracy and precision. This paper aims to provide an overview of currently available UAV-based technologies and sampling methodologies which can be used to quantify methane emission fluxes at local scales. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

It is now well established that our warming planet is experiencing changes in extreme storms and floods, resulting in a need to better specify hydrologic design guidelines that can be projected into the future. This paper attempts to summarize the nature of changes occurring and the impact they are having on the design flood magnitude, with a focus on the urban catchments that we will increasingly reside in as time goes on. Two lines of reasoning are used to assess and model changes in design hydrology. The first of these involves using observed storms and soil moisture conditions and projecting how these may change into the future. The second involves using climate model simulations of the future and using them as inputs into hydrologic models to assess the changed design estimates. We discuss here the limitations in both and suggest that the two are, in fact, linked, as climate model projections for the future are needed in the first approach to form meaningful projections for the future. Based on the author's experience with both lines of reasoning, this invited commentary presents a theoretical narrative linking these two and identifying factors and assumptions that need to be validated before implementation in practice. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that managing the consequences of climate change and human activity is one of the greatest challenges of the twenty-first century. Topics include examines extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts, are becoming common and severe; and urban and agricultural expansion contributed to the loss of biodiversity and the degradation of ecosystems.

There is growing interest in identifying the impacts of extreme climate events on natural systems. Two principles of such detection are that it should be based on a scientific understanding of the processes by which climate affects the system of interest and that non-climate factors that also affect the system should be controlled for. Using a simple temperature-dependent predator-prey model, this paper illustrates the importance of these principles in the context of establishing a link between temperature and population extremes. The results suggest that a naive approach based only on the co-occurrence of temperature and population extremes may fail. In the second part of the paper, some reasons for focusing attention on the ecological impacts of extreme climate events are briefly reviewed. It is suggested that, while extreme ecological events may be important for society, this does not imply that an analysis aimed at connecting them to extreme climate events should necessarily be based on extreme events themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based 'natural' flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Managing urban flood risk is a key global challenge of the twenty-first century. Drivers of future UK flood risk were identified and assessed by the Flood Foresight project in 2002–2004 and 2008; envisaging flood risk during the 2050s and 2080s under a range of scenarios for climate change and socio-economic development. This paper qualitatively reassesses and updates these drivers, using empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology and practice gained since 2008. Of the original drivers, five have strengthened, three have weakened and 14 remain within their 2008 uncertainty bands. Rainfall, as impacted by climate change, is the leading source driver of future urban flood risk. Intra-urban asset deterioration, leading to increases in a range of consequential flood risks, is the primary pathway driver. Social impacts (risk to life and health, and the intangible impacts of flooding on communities) and continued capital investment in buildings and contents (leading to greater losses when newer buildings of higher economic worth are inundated) have strengthened as receptor drivers of urban flood risk. Further, we propose two new drivers: loss of floodable urban spaces and indirect economic impacts, which we suggest may have significant impacts on future urban flood risk. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the Gap Rock lighthouse, a legendary maritime infrastructure built 130 years ago in the Chinese territory and an early example of joint venture among the Qing Dynasty, the British Empire and the Hong Kong Colonial Government over a course of two decades. Based on 4 years of cross-territorial archival and field research as well as in-depth interviews with descendants of two key stakeholders, the origin of this lasting legacy on the sea is traced, followed by a detailed account of its challenging processes of planning, design and construction, and of the considerable damage to the compound by a severe typhoon in 1893. A qualitative analysis of the key contributing factors of the damage was conducted by taking into consideration the Island's unique topography and the historical records of territorial weather reports. A re-construction of the typhoon impact on the Lighthouse is presented to explain the possible mistakes in its siting and design that eventually caused the severe damage. This serves as a reminder of the significance of a thorough geographical investigation for any infrastructure for all construction professionals in the face of climatic change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Environmental loading of heritage structures'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last approximately 2.6 Myr, Earth’s climate has been dominated by cyclical ice ages that have profoundly affected species’ population sizes, but the impact of impending anthropogenic climate change on species’ extinction potential remains a worrying problem. We investigated 11 bat species from different taxonomic, ecological and geographical backgrounds using combined information from palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions and genomes to analyse biotic impacts of historic climate change. We discover tightly correlated fluctuations between species’ historic distribution and effective population size, identify frugivores as particularly susceptible to global warming, pinpoint large insectivores as having overall low effective population size and flag the onset of the Holocene (approx. 10–12 000 years ago) as the period with the generally lowest effective population sizes across the last approximately 1 Myr. Our study shows that combining genomic and palaeoclimatological approaches reveals effects of climatic shifts on genetic diversity and may help predict impacts of future climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the best part of my entire career, I have focused on the marginal ice zone, abbreviated to MIZ by most sea ice scientists. Defined perfunctorily by the National Snow & Ice Data Center as the part of the seasonal ice zone where waves, swells and other open ocean processes affect the sea ice, the MIZ habitually extends from the ice edge some 100–200 km into the ice pack with morphology that varies dramatically spatially and with time. In general, the Antarctic MIZ is wider than MIZs in the Arctic, recognizing that increases in the ferocity and incidence of storms and the durability of ice due to global climate change are already affecting the physical attributes of each MIZ. I provide here a somewhat historically tailored preamble to a unique compilation of up-to-the-minute MIZ research in this theme issue that includes the nexus between contemporary theoretical, modelling and experimental projects. A prognosticative synopsis of these projects is also included later in the volume, framed in the context of the ongoing ontogenesis of the research field. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commentary narrated in this theme issue is recast to contextualize the diverse themes presented into a forward-looking conversation that synthesizes, debates opportunities for multidisciplinary advances and highlights topics that deserve enduring sharpened attention. Research oriented towards foundational elements of the marginal ice zone that relates to three unifying topic subclasses—namely (i) wave propagation through sea ice, (ii) floe size distributions and (iii) ice dynamics and break-up—and is encapsulated in mini-reviews provided by Thomson, Horvat and Dumont is revisited to distill it into a blueprint for the future guided by the cutting-edge, present-day knowledge documented herein by leading practitioners in the field. Six threads are signalled as imperative for prospective research, each with a bearing on Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice canopies in which the propensity for marginal ice zones to coexist with pack ice is greater as a result of global climate change reducing sea-ice resilience while increasing the prevalence and forcefulness of injurious storm winds and waves. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental conditions like temperature and photoperiod can strongly shape organisms' growth and development. For many ectotherms with complex life cycles, global change will cause their offspring to experience warmer conditions and earlier-season photoperiods, two variables that can induce conflicting responses. We experimentally manipulated photoperiod and temperature during gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) larval development to examine effects at metamorphosis and during short (10-day) and long (56-day) periods post-metamorphosis. Both early- and late-season photoperiods (April and August) decreased age and size at metamorphosis relative to the average-season (June) photoperiod, while warmer temperatures decreased age but increased size at metamorphosis. Warmer larval temperatures reduced short-term juvenile growth but had no long-term effect. Conversely, photoperiod had no short-term carryover effect, but juveniles from early- and late-season larval photoperiods had lower long-term growth rates than juveniles from the average-season photoperiod. Similar responses to early- and late-season photoperiods may be due to reduced total daylight compared with average-season photoperiods. However, juveniles from late-season photoperiods selected cooler temperatures than early-season juveniles, suggesting that not all effects of photoperiod were due to total light exposure. Our results indicate that despite both temperature and photoperiod affecting metamorphosis, the long-term effects of photoperiod may be much stronger than those of temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under anthropogenic pressures and climate change, most ecosystems are showing signs of reduced resilience. Unfortunately, some are more at risk of collapse and, without interventions, they may lose biodiversity, ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here, we describe two tools that were developed under the auspices of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard, and their capacity to first identify the ecosystems at risk of collapse in a nation and then develop solutions based on nature to improve their resilience. Nature-based solutions include, for example ecosystem-based adaptation, where solutions are developed to meet the needs of the local people while protecting nature to ensure greater resilience of the social–ecological system, not only the natural ecosystem. We discuss through a case study in the Andean high mountains and páramo social–ecological system how these approaches have been used in Colombia. We then discuss lessons learned and challenges that may reduce the capacity of a community to initiate such interventions, such as national policies and funding restrictions. We also discuss through another early case in Ecuador the importance to adapt these types of interventions to the geographical and cultural context of the social–ecological systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the sensitivity of HRE-induced epidemics to variation in the effects of rainfall on the dynamics of mosquito breeding capacity, and the intensity and temporal profile of human population displacement patterns. The recent Hurricane Harvey in Texas motivates the simulations reported. Overall, we find that the impact of vector-borne disease transmission is likely to be greater the earlier the HREs occur in the transmission season. Simulations based on data for Hurricane Harvey suggest that the limited impact it had on vector-borne disease transmission was in part because of when it occurred (late August) relative to the local transmission season, and in part because of the mitigating effect of the displacement of people. We also highlight key data gaps related to models of vector-borne disease transmission in the context of natural disasters. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the relationship between surface air temperature and glacial discharge has been studied in the Northern Hemisphere for at least a century, similar studies for Antarctica remain scarce and only for the past four decades. This data scarcity is due to the extreme meteorological conditions and terrain inaccessibility. As a result, the contribution of glacial discharge in Antarctica to global sea-level rise is still attached with great uncertainties, especially from partly glaciated hydrological basins as can be found in the Antarctic Peninsula. In this paper, we propose a simplified model based on the Monte Carlo method and Fourier analysis for estimating discharge in partly glaciated and periglacial hydrological catchments with a summer melt period. Our model offers the advantage of scarce data requirements and quick recognition of periglacial environments. Discharge was found to be highly correlated with surface air temperature for the partially glaciated hydrological catchments on Potter Peninsula, King George Island (Isla 25 Mayo). The model is simple to implement and requires few variables to make most versatile simulations. We have obtained a monthly simulated maximum flow estimates between 0.74 and 1.07m³ s-1 for two creeks (South and North Potter) with a very good fit to field observations. The glacial mean monthly discharge during summer months was estimated to 0.44 ± 0.02m³ s-1 for South Potter Creek and 0.55 ± 0.02m³³ s-1 for North Potter Creek. This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of largescale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climaterelated disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decisionmakers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process--this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessmentwhich was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a growing population with changing demands, competition for the global land resource is increasing. We need to feed a projected population of 9-10 billion by 2050, rising to approximately 12 billion by 2100. At the same time, we need to reduce the climate impact of agriculture, forestry and other land use and we almost certainly need to deliver land-based greenhouse gas removal for additional climate change mitigation. In addition, we need to deliver progress towards meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, all without compromising the many ecosystem services provided by land and without exceeding planetary boundaries. Managing the land to tackle these pressing issues is a major global challenge. In this perspective paper, I provide a very broad overview of the main challenges and explore co-benefits, trade-offs and possible solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As environments are rapidly reshaped due to climate change, phenotypic plasticity plays an important role in the ability of organisms to persist and is considered an especially important acclimatization mechanism for long-lived sessile organisms such as reef-building corals. Often, this ability of a single genotype to display multiple phenotypes depending on the environment is modulated by changes in gene expression, which can vary in response to environmental changes via two mechanisms: baseline expression and expression plasticity. We used transcriptome-wide expression profiling of eleven genotypes of common-gardened Acropora cervicornis to explore genotypic variation in the expression response to thermal and acidification stress, both individually and in combination. We show that the combination of these two stressors elicits a synergistic gene expression response, and that both baseline expression and expression plasticity in response to stress show genotypic variation. Additionally, we demonstrate that frontloading of a large module of coexpressed genes is associated with greater retention of algal symbionts under combined stress. These results illustrate that variation in the gene expression response of individuals to climate change stressors can persist even when individuals have shared environmental histories, affecting their performance under future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has increased average environmental temperatures world-wide, simultaneously intensifying temperature variability and extremes. Growing numbers of studies have documented phenological, behavioural and morphological responses to climate change in wild populations. As systemic signals, hormones can contribute to orchestrating many of these phenotypic changes. Yet little is known about whether mechanisms like hormonal flexibility (reversible changes in hormone concentrations) facilitate or limit the ability of individuals, populations and species to cope with a changing climate. In this perspective, we discuss different mechanisms by which hormonal flexibility, primarily in glucocorticoids, could promote versus hinder evolutionary adaptation to changing temperature regimes. We focus on temperature because it is a key gradient influenced by climate change, it is easy to quantify, and its links to hormones are well established. We argue that reaction norm studies that connect individual responses to population-level and species-wide patterns will be critical for making progress in this field. We also develop a case study on urban heat islands, where several key questions regarding hormonal flexibility and adaptation to climate change can be addressed. Understanding the mechanisms that allow animals to cope when conditions become more challenging will help in predicting which populations are vulnerable to ongoing climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, pushing animals beyond physiological limits. While most studies focus on survival limits, sublethal effects on fertility tend to occur below lethal thresholds, and consequently can be as important for population viability. Typically, male fertility is more heat-sensitive than female fertility, yet direct comparisons are limited. Here, we measured the effect of experimental heatwaves on tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes, disease vectors and unusual live-bearing insects of sub-Saharan Africa. We exposed males or females to a 3-day heatwave peaking at 36, 38 or 40°C for 2 h, and a 25°C control, monitoring mortality and reproduction over six weeks. For a heatwave peaking at 40°C, mortality was 100%, while a 38°C peak resulted in only 8% acute mortality. Females exposed to the 38°C heatwave experienced a one-week delay in producing offspring, whereas no such delay occurred in males. Over six weeks, heatwaves resulted in equivalent fertility loss in both sexes. Combined with mortality, this lead to a 10% population decline over six weeks compared to the control. Furthermore, parental heatwave exposure gave rise to a female-biased offspring sex ratio. Ultimately, thermal limits of both survival and fertility should be considered when assessing climate change vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global challenges like the climate crisis and pandemic outbreaks require collective responses where people quickly adapt to changing circumstances. Social norms are potential solutions, but only if they themselves are flexible enough. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to study norm formation and decay in real-world contexts. We tracked empirical and normative expectations about social distancing and empirical and normative expectations of sanctioning from June 2021 to February 2022 to explore how norms and meta norms evolved as COVID-19 risk decreased and increased. We found that norms and meta norms partially coevolve with risk dynamics, although they recover with some delay. This implies that norms should be enforced as soon as risk increases. We therefore tested how sanctioning intentions vary for different hypothetical norms and find them to increase with a clear meta norm of sanctioning, yet decrease with a clear social norm of distance. In conclusion, social norms evolve spontaneously with changing risk, but might not be adaptive enough when the lack of meta norms of sanctioning introduce tolerance for norm violations. Moreover, norm nudges can potentially have negative externalities if strengthening the social norm increases tolerance for norm violations. These results put some limits to social norms as solutions to guide behaviour under risk. This article is part of the theme issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]