Search

A hybrid coupled model (HCM) is constructed for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin. An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures. In addition, various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM, including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds, and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux, ocean biology-induced heating (OBH), and tropical instability waves (TIWs). In addition to its computational efficiency, the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively, allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way. In this paper, examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state, the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific, and interannual variability associated with ENSO. As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM, this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling. Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part II of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important component of the upper cell of the global overturning circulation that provides a low-latitude pathway for warm, fresh waters from the Pacific to enter the Indian Ocean. Variability and changes of the ITF have significant impacts on Indo-Pacific oceanography and global climate. In this paper, the observed features of the ITF and its interannual to decadal variability are reviewed, and processes that influence the centennial change of the ITF under the influence of the global warming are discussed. The ITF flows across a region that comprises the intersection of two ocean waveguides—those of the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Ocean. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niñas and weaker during El Niños due to the influences through the Pacific waveguide. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in many years offsets the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña through the Indian Ocean waveguide, due to the co-varying IOD variability with ENSO. Decadal and multi-decadal changes of the geostrophic ITF transport have been revealed: there was a weakening change from the mid-1970s climate regime shift followed by a strengthening trend of about 1Sv every 10 year during 1984–2013. These decadal changes are mostly due to the ITF responses to decadal variations of the trade winds in the Pacific. Thus, Godfrey’s Island Rule, as well as other ITF proxies, appears to be able to quantify decadal variations of the ITF. Climate models project a weakening trend of the ITF under the global warming. Both climate models and downscaled ocean model show that this ITF weakening is not directly associated with the changes of the trade winds in the Pacific into the future, and the reduction of deep upwelling in the Pacific basin is mainly responsible for the ITF weakening. There is a need to amend the Island Rule to take into account the contributions from the overturning circulation which the current ITF proxies fail to capture. The implication of a weakened ITF on the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation still needs to be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of urban areas can potentially alter hydro-meteorological fluxes and lead to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. In this study, UHI intensity and its driving factors were estimated using the Community Land Model (CLM) in cities of Tokyo, Phoenix, Bandung, and Quito, with different landscapes and climates, as a step in risk assessment of urbanization phenomena. The UHI magnitude increased along with the ratio of the height to width (H/W) of urban canyons in cities with the same latitude, especially during the daytime, when Quito (Tokyo) had a higher UHI than Bandung (Phoenix). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, such as El Niño and La Niña, contributed to UHI variability, during which the cities in the western (eastern) part of Pacific Ocean experienced a higher UHI during El Niño (La Niña). The UHI differences from total biophysical drivers between these events were highest in Tokyo during the daytime as a result of convection process, and in Phoenix during the nighttime due to the hot arid climate of the city. Our results suggest the need to consider climate variation beyond local site characteristics when mitigating heat stress and making decisions regarding urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black Carbon (BC) aerosols substantially affect the global climate. However, accurate simulation of BC atmospheric transport remains elusive, due to shortcomings in modeling and a shortage of constraining measurements. Recently, several studies have compared simulations with observed vertical concentration profiles, and diagnosed a global-mean BC atmospheric residence time of <5 days. These studies have, however, been focused on limited geographical regions, and used temporally and spatially coarse model information. Here we expand on previous results by comparing a wide range of recent aircraft measurements from multiple regions, including the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, to simulated distributions obtained at varying spatial and temporal resolution. By perturbing BC removal processes and using current best-estimate emissions, we confirm a constraint on the global-mean BC lifetime of <5.5 days, shorter than in many current global models, over a broader geographical range than has so far been possible. Sampling resolution influences the results, although generally without introducing major bias. However, we uncover large regional differences in the diagnosed lifetime, in particular in the Arctic. We also find that only a weak constraint can be placed in the African outflow region over the South Atlantic, indicating inaccurate emission sources or model representation of transport and microphysical processes. While our results confirm that BC lifetime is shorter than predicted by most recent climate models, they also cast doubt on the usability of the concept of a "global-mean BC lifetime" for climate impact studies, or as an indicator of model skill. Aerosols: black carbon has short atmospheric residence time A geographically wide set of aircraft measurements show that the lifetime of black carbon aerosols in the atmosphere is less than five days. Chemical transport simulations are key for assessing the climate impact of black carbon aerosols, but their evaluation has been limited by sparse observations. Marianne T. Lund, from the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, Norway, and colleagues compare a wide range of aircraft black carbon concentrations from 2008–2017 with two chemistry transport models to confirm a short black carbon lifetime of less than 5 days. While this global mean lifetime applies over a wide geographical range, they also find important regional discrepancies, in particular in the Arctic. These findings caution against using a global-mean lifetime to diagnose the impact of black carbon on warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]