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Education needs to be at the forefront of the efforts to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change (CC) effects. We have introduced the Climate Change Competence (C3) to provide a comprehensive route to include the topics of sustainability and CC into the curriculum. This paper analyses how different primary and secondary teachers can improve this competence using a Massive Online Open Course (MOOC) on the basic science of CC. While the improvement in knowledge is expected, we have observed important advances on abilities, and attitudes on CC which are also essential to teach about CC mitigation and adaptation. The present study used a pre-experimental design, with pre-and post-test measurements with a sample of 530 students. While the MOOC focuses on the Science of CC, the participants also advance in attitudes and abilities, revealing an important correlation between these three dimensions of competence. Also, the study reveals that the MOOC improves the C3 in all the participants, but it does in diverse ways for diverse groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the results of climate change science activities that have been promoted as part of crisis management for climate change to date and draws lessons from them to further strengthen responses to climate stabilization and suggests issues that the scientific community should address going forward. The global climate is a complex physical phenomenon, and it takes time to elucidate its mechanisms. In addition, due to its nature as a global public good with no alternatives, it cannot be controlled without the concerted consensus and action of all nations. Already, the climate management system on a global scale is lagging behind and has not caught up with the actual progress of climate change, and there are concerns that the "climate crisis" will undermine human sustainability. The science of climate change, which is the vanguard of sustainability science, is tackling this unprecedented challenge for humanity by learning by doing and has almost finished collecting nature-side knowledge for stabilizing climate. The next big challenge is how to motivate human society to achieve a carbon-neutral world. Given the limited time available, calls to action on the ground by stakeholders and citizens to reduce greenhouse gases, in parallel with the implementation of top-down policies, will be crucial. It is hoped that crisis management will be strengthened through the consolidation of human knowledge that crosses and integrates various fields. When the science of climate change succeeds in stabilizing the climate, it will serve as a good reference for subsequent sustainability science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contributions to the climate governance literature have highlighted the importance of recognizing its new polycentric nature, which includes roles for non-state and subnational actors in climate change mitigation and in leadership for climate action. Yet, the literature is missing a normative cartography—that is, a mapping of the distribution of moral duties in the real world—which is tailored to a context of polycentric governance. This paper answers the question: how can moral duties be distributed in a context of polycentric climate governance such as to diminish the problem of non-compliance? This implies the following question: do duties change in situations of non-compliance in a context of polycentric governance, and if so how? Acknowledging polycentric governance is the key to an effective distribution of moral duties, as it allows for a more accurate mapping of non-state and subnational actors' duties in leading the charge against climate change. Correspondingly, a normative cartography fitted to this context will be instrumental in showing how morally informed climate governance can diminish the problem of non-compliance. This paper focusses on the distribution of moral duties in a context of polycentric governance as a contributing factor to inducing agents to act according to the collective goal. It argues that a more fine-grained distribution of climate duties, tailored to polycentric climate governance, contributes to addressing the problem of non-compliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Not only is the climate changing, but so is global climate governance. Climate policy initiatives have proliferated within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) regime in a polycentric pattern. Nevertheless, promised action under the Paris Agreement (PA) is far from being sufficient to achieve its targets of keeping global warming below 2 °C. A special research focus has emerged on international 'climate clubs', referring to a smaller group's greater ability to make progress in international climate policy compared to large global forums. Against this background, our paper reflects on the club functions of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), a transnational partnership that aims at slowing the rate of near-term global warming through the reduction of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). How does the CCAC contribute to global climate governance and how does this relate to existing structures, such as the UNFCCC process and the PA? Researchers have generally found that climate clubs can raise ambition, produce emissions reductions, and/or enhance cooperation, while generating additional benefits for its members. However, their specific governance contribution remains rather opaque, for example, how emissions reductions are achieved. There is a lack of analytical application, knowledge of the political practice and of in-depth case studies of the clubs concept. This paper contributes to filling this gap by applying central aspects of clubs research, namely membership and size, public goods, and the provision of additional benefits as an analytical framework in one in-depth case study of a governance initiative that has not yet been the subject of academic scrutiny: the CCAC. The results are based on expert interviews and the analysis of strategic and academic documents. Overall, this research finds that the CCAC's largest contribution to global climate governance lies in preparing SLCP emissions reductions through raising awareness, orchestrating different actors and actions related to SLCPs, and establishing a large technical cooperation network. To some degree it also directly implements SLCP reduction projects. Ultimately, it complements the UNFCCC and especially the Paris Agreement. Members are part of the CCAC because its benefits go beyond climate change mitigation. Its large transnational membership constellation both supports and challenges its governance contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a global trend away from delivering 'climate information' towards producing 'climate services' for decision-makers. The rationale for this shift is said to be the demand for timely and actionable climate knowledge, whilst the means of its delivery involves a shift from public good to more privatised forms of climate science. This paper identifies important implications of this shift to climate services by examining the role of consultants, drawing on an in-depth study of adaptation consultants in Australia. The role of consultants is instructive, not just because these private sector experts are engaged in climate services, but also because publicly funded climate science agencies are increasingly encouraged to behave as consulting firms do. Four imperatives of knowledge businesses—to be client-focussed, solutions-oriented, resource-efficient and self-replicating—are described. The paper argues that an emphasis on climate services shifts the incentives for climate science away from the public interest towards the ongoing pursuit of profit. There is a subsequent diversion of effort away from publicly accessible and transparent climate information to private knowledge for discrete clients. Climate services also emphasise knowledge for climate solutions as opposed to the politically charged identification of climate risks. The paper concludes with a warning that the trend towards climate services undermines the knowledge required for societies to adequately respond to the scale, speed and severity of climate change. At the heart of this issue is a climate services paradox: how to achieve customisation without exclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement on climate change recognizes, reluctantly albeit, the importance of 'climate justice' in its Preamble. Despite a change from a top-down burden-sharing approach to a bottom-up pledge and review regime, concerns of distributive justice remain central to the evolution of climate research, regime, and policy. The Paris Agreement also proposes a new market-based mechanism to promote ambition. Reasserting the unavoidability of 'climate justice' concerns, and responding to the suggestion that the proposed new market-based mechanism could learn from the experience of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), this paper argues that such a recommendation should be tested against a comprehensive understanding of compatibility between justice and the market. This paper postulates that both justice and the market have institutional underpinnings, which embed them into deeper, and interconnected, layers of values and relations. Arguing that 'climate justice' is best understood as 'an agreed ensemble of values,' we propose that the architecture of the UNFCCC in which these values are articulated, negotiated, and agreed upon needs to be conceptualized as consisting of four distinct, but evolving, institutional spheres: ambition, obligations and entitlements, mechanisms, and deliberation. The approach is illustrated using the case of the CDM, and implications are suggested for the proposed market-based mechanism under the Paris Agreement. The paper argues that the concerns of 'climate justice' have multiple institutional dimensions, and the market-based mechanisms may contribute to realizing certain dimensions of 'climate justice,' while considerably subverting others. The extent of both outcomes depends greatly on the 'agreed' conception of justice, design of mechanisms, and capabilities of the participants. Our findings suggest a judicious combination of non-market mechanisms with the market-based mechanisms would better serve the desired goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses ethical issues surrounding Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the economic effects of climate change, and how climate economists acting as policy advisors ought to represent the uncertain possibility of catastrophe. Some climate economists, especially Martin Weitzman, have argued for a precautionary approach where avoiding catastrophe should structure climate economists' welfare analysis. This paper details ethical arguments that justify this approach, showing how Weitzman's "fat tail" probabilities of climate catastrophe pose ethical problems for widely used IAMs. The main claim is that economists who ignore or downplay catastrophic risks in their representations of uncertainty likely fall afoul of ethical constraints on scientists acting as policy advisors. Such scientists have duties to honestly articulate uncertainties and manage (some) inductive risks, or the risks of being wrong in different ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil and other Earth scientists who conduct research on C management found themselves, in the past decade within a swirl of efforts concerning climate mitigation, economic and business investments in carbon markets, and political aspirations. All these external pressures are issues with which soil science is largely unfamiliar. As a result, science has responded without deeply considering the landscape in which it finds itself, and some of the unanticipated challenges these issues present. Here, we suggest soil C scientists now consider and respond to these issues. The first order challenge is to transition from the concept of technical carbon sequestration potentials, made in the absence of social and policy contexts, to societally achievable sequestration estimates based on highly transdisciplinary teams of natural and social sciences and scientists. To achieve this will requires re-thinking national science funding programs, in which climate-relevant social science is under-funded. In addition, the science of soil C itself is in need of a priority shift. Presently, publications in soil C sequestration out-strip papers on soil feedbacks to climate change, and on how to adapt soil to climate change: two areas of research which may well be more societal important in the next few decades than sequestering C. Most seriously, given the urgent nature of our collective societal climate problem, our profession must not find itself a decade from now continuing the now 20-year-old narrative that soil C can potentially mitigate climate change and compensate for greenhouse gas emissions. We must consider the possibility that other options and expenditures of resources are more viable, and we must reframe our science's objectives to expand into the many other urgent needs that confront humanity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+ 1 to + 5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical downscaling (DD) consists in using archives of Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM) simulations as the atmospheric and sea-surface boundary conditions (BC) to drive nested, Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. Biases in the CGCM-generated driving BC, however, can have detrimental impacts on RCM performance. It is well documented for the historical period that CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperatures (SST) suffer substantial biases, especially important near coastal regions. Assuming that these SST biases are time-invariant, they could in principle be subtracted from century-long CGCM projections before being used to drive RCMs. This paper investigates the performance of a 3-step DD approach as follows. The CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperatures (SST) are first empirically corrected by subtracting their systematic biases; the corrected SST are then used as ocean surface BC for an atmosphere-only GCM (AGCM) simulation; finally this AGCM simulation provides the atmospheric lateral BC to drive an RCM simulation. This is what we refer to as the 3-step approach CGCM–AGCM–RCM of DD, which can be compared to the traditional 2-step approach CGCM–RCM consisting of driving an RCM simulation directly by CGCM-generated BC. In this paper we compare the results obtained with the two approaches, for present and future climates under RCP8.5, using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) with a grid mesh of 0.22° over the North American CORDEX domain, driven by two CMIP5 models: the Canadian Earth System Model of the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CanESM2) and the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-ESM-MR). The results show that, in current climate, the seasonal-mean 2-m temperature fields simulated with the 3-step DD have generally smaller biases with respect to the observations than those simulated with the 2-step DD; in fact the performance of the 3-step DD simulations often approaches that of the reanalyses-driven simulation. For the seasonal-mean precipitation field, however, the differences between the two DD methods are not conclusive. Differences between the projected climate changes with the two DD methods vary substantially depending upon the variable being considered. Differences are particularly important for temperature: over the bulk of the North American continent, the 3-step DD projects more warming in winter and less in summer. This result highlights the nonlinearities of the climate system, and constitutes an additional measure of uncertainty with DD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on using climate information has often focused on the interaction between users and producers and the technical fit of information for real decision-making. However, due to resource and capacity constraints within both user and producer communities, this approach will not always be feasible or indeed necessary depending on the decisions at hand. These contexts have been relatively under-explored by scholars, and this paper provides an original empirical contribution using three case studies of sub-national governments in India, Kenya and Uganda. In the paper, we analyse how social learning supports changing the usability of climate information and the role of intermediary organisations in these processes. Firstly, the paper shows that intermediaries often choose to build the commitment to project aims rather than using climate information as an entry point to working on climate change, and this allows them to instigate challenging learning processes. Secondly, there are barriers to iterative processes and critical reflection with government stakeholders but these processes can gain traction when built into institutional practices such as formal M&E processes. Lastly, social learning can broaden the framing of climate change from a single sector issue to a multi-sectoral one. We conclude by arguing that bringing together scholarship on social learning with that on the usability of climate information can deepen understanding of the dynamic context in which the information becomes usable. The evidence from the case studies shows that learning processes can alter this context across scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topical issue includes 22 papers on different aspects of meteorology and climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The papers are grouped into three categories, based on scale analysis of processes, and whether the study is dominantly related to the atmospheric or oceanic phenomenon. The category “Storms, Extremes and Mesoscale Processes” encompasses seven papers, ranging from observation and modelling data analysis of extreme atmospheric (severe winds, hailstorms, waterspout, cyclones) and oceanic (meteotsunamis, surface waves) events, occurring locally, but being connected to wider patterns and processes. The six papers in category “Atmospheric Climate, Variability and Climate Change” contain analyses of long-term observations and climate projection outputs, but also assess atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and cycles, that are important in a climate perspective. The category “Ocean Climate and Variability” includes nine papers, which map ocean processes (sea level variability, circulation, sea surface temperatures, vertical thermal structure, water masses and dense water formation) on a climate timescale, both, in the Mediterranean and Black Sea sub-basins, or taking them as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climate-economic modelling, agent-based models are still an exception. Although numerous authors have discussed the usefulness of the approach, only a few models exist. The paper proposes an update to a multi-agent climate-economic model, namely the “battle of perspectives” (Janssen, 1996; Janssen and de Vries 1998). The approach of the paper is twofold. First, the reimplementation of the model follows the “model to model” concept. Supporters of the approach argue that replication is a useful way to check a model’s accuracy and robustness. Second, updating a model with current data and new scientific evidence is a robustness check in itself. The long-term validity and usefulness of a model depends on the variability of the data on which it is based, as well as on the model’s sensitivity to data changes. By offering this update, the paper contributes to the development of agent-based models in climate-economics. Acknowledging evolutionary processes in climate-policy represents a useful complement to intertemporal cost-benefit analyses, the latter of which derive optimal protection paths but are not able to explain why people do not follow them. Since the replication and update succeeded, the paper recommends using the model as a basis for further analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and environmental hazards affect the entire world, but their interactions with—and consequences on—human migration are unevenly distributed geographically. Research on climate and migration have their own geographies which do not necessarily coincide. This paper critically confronts these two geographies by presenting the first detailed mapping of research in the field of environmentally induced migration. After a brief review of the geography of research on climate change, the paper presents an overview of nearly 50 years of case studies on the basis of CliMig, a bibliographic database of 1193 scientific papers and books on climate/environmental change and migration, among them 463 empirical case studies. We analyze the locations of these case studies, the academic affiliations of their researchers, and the origin of their funding. Mapping the locations of case studies worldwide points toward blind spots in the research and identifies “overstudied” areas. We describe the methodologies used in the studies and present a typology of environmental hazards. Our results show that research on environmental migration is mainly done in countries of the Global South, whereas climate science research in general is focused on countries of the Global North. We contend that the peculiar geography of environmental migration cannot be explained solely by the uneven vulnerability of southern populations to the environment. It must also be understood through the lens of post-colonial and securitization studies as the result of a framing of “environmental refugees” (and refugees in general) as an intrinsically “southern problem” and as a security risk for the North. This paper is an original contribution to the literature on the North-South divide in scientific research and will help to outline future directions of investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

de Freitas et al. (2015) (henceforth dFDB) report a trend of 0.28 °C per century over the period 1909-2009 for New Zealand land surface temperatures, from their reanalysis of a composite of seven long-term records. This is much lower than the warming trend of about 0.9 °C per century reported previously by other researchers and much smaller than trends estimated from independent sea surface temperature data from the surrounding region. We show these differences result primarily from the way inhomogeneities in temperature time series at individual stations due to site or instrument changes are identified and adjusted for in the dFDB paper. The adjustments reported in that paper are based on a method designed by one of us (Salinger), but use only a short (1-2-year) overlap period with comparison stations and consider only inhomogeneities in monthly mean (rather than monthly maximum and minimum) temperatures. This leads to underestimates of the statistical significance of individual temperature discontinuities and hence rejection of many valid adjustments. Since there was a systematic tendency for the seven-station sites to be relocated to colder locations as the early half of the twentieth century progressed, this rejection of valid adjustments produces an artificially low rate of warming. We therefore disagree with the trend calculations in the dFDB paper and consider there is no reason to reject the previous estimates of around 0.9 °C warming per century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper addresses the challenging question of “how to” design and implement co-production of knowledge in climate science and other environmental and agricultural sciences. Based on a grounded theory review of nine (9) published case studies of transdisciplinary and collaborative research projects, the paper offers a set of common themes regarding specific components and processes for the design, implementation, and achievement of co-production of knowledge work, which represent the “Modus Operandi” of knowledge co-production. The analysis focuses on practical methodological guidance based on lessons from how different research teams have approached the challenges of complex collaborative research. We begin by identifying broad factors or actions that inhibit or facilitate the process, then highlight specific practices associated with co-production of knowledge and necessary competencies for undertaking co-production. We provide insights on issues such as the integration of social and professional cultures, gender and social equity, and power dynamics, and illustrate the different ways in which researchers have addressed these issues. By exploring the specific practices involved in knowledge co-production, this paper provides guidance to researchers on how to navigate different possibilities of the process of conducting transdisciplinary and co-production of knowledge research projects that best fit their research context, stakeholder needs, and research team capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing number of studies focusing on extreme weather all over the world, but global trends and research topics related to extreme weather are still unclear. This study aimed to explore the current situation, research themes, and future trends in the field of extreme weather. Publications published from 1980 to 2019 were identified and retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection databases by using keywords on May 5, 2020. Excel 2019, VOSviewer, R, and CiteSpace were used for scientific analysis. The results showed that (1) the number of publications on extreme weather research has rapidly increased and expanded continually, shifting from core disciplines to interdisciplinary fields; (2) the International Journal of Climatology was the most productive journal, and climate and environment were the most popular subject categories. Most studies were carried out in the USA, China, Germany, and other nations, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution; (3) the main research topics were summarized as (a) climate change; (b) variability; (c) trends; (d) rainfall; (e) temperature; and (f) maximum. At the same time, (4) keyword bursts analysis showed that the domain focused on changes to atmospheric rivers, the impacts of global nitrogen content on extreme weather, and the relationship between water quality, soil moisture content, and extreme weather. Based on the in-depth analysis of extreme weather research, this paper developed a further understanding of the developments in this field over the past 39 years and also provided a reference for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are increasingly supporting climate change mitigation efforts. However, little is known about how and why this role in climate finance has evolved, and how MDBs are managing this change internally. This paper addresses these questions through an analysis of energy support provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The paper maps trends in the number and monetary value of ADB energy projects and technical assistance activities, presenting descriptive statistics on five categories of energy between 2000 and 2014. The results indicate that ADB while decreased its support for fossil fuel interventions, this sector continues to enjoy substantial funding support. At the same time, support for sustainable energy projects has also increased, reflecting the Bank's evolving priorities and providing a rough proxy for its entry into the climate finance system. These new insights enhance understanding of the changing dynamics of multilateral climate finance and its complex relationship with development finance institutions. Given their financial resources and policy influence, it is essential for MDBs to support the goals of the new global climate finance architecture. But to be considered a serious actor in the climate finance system, ADB has to revisit its policy architecture, strengthen its accounting procedures, and coordinate its efforts with those of other actors across this fragmented system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We welcome a broader debate on this aspect of global responses to climate change, attempt to reconcile our views in the following. B replying to b A. Lanson et al. I Nature Communications i https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x (2022) In response to our recent paper[1] (hereafter SFL20) concerning the relation between natural variability in the climate system and the time to detect a response to emissions mitigation, Lanson et al.[2] (hereafter L22) call for 'a broader debate on how to best assess and communicate emerging effects of climate mitigation in the light of natural variability'. It is still efficient in revealing differences between the rapid climate response to aerosol perturbations, similar to the idealized test performed by L22, and the slower evolution from e.g. CO2 emissions. [Extracted from the article]

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a multi-level governance framework to explain how and at what scale climate adaptation, exemplified by flood risk management, was governed in the medium-scale city of Saint Louis, Senegal. It explores how this policy sector worked toward a 'resilient city' pointing to gaps between governance as prescribed and as practiced. The paper suggests that strong coordination of climate change adaptation and flood risk management should take place at city level, reflecting the 'place-based' character of these policy sectors. However, adaptation cannot be addressed successfully at any single geographic scale or by any one category of actor. Effective collaboration across politico-administrative boundaries at multiple scales is required in order to address tensions between competing policy agendas and tackle socio-spatial inequality and vulnerability. We found that public officials at the city and regional state level encouraged some degree of citizen participation in planning and input into adaptation. However, despite emerging networks for city-level coordination and capacity to adapt to flood risks among local residents, there were limitations in how higher-level government and institutions supported the lower levels in vertical and horizontal coordination. In particular, services and investments within poor and vulnerable settlements were lacking. This undermined the capability of municipal staff for local engagement and for diverse groups of residents to become really effective partners with the government in coproducing services required to enhance resilience. More so, it limited opportunities to bring local actions to scale-beyond the city boundaries and toward transitional adaptation and transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International assessments of evidence on climate change (e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) or national climate change risk assessments (e.g. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, CCRA) do not offer a sufficiently granular perspective on climate impacts to adequately inform governance of resilience to climate risks at the local level. Using an analysis of UK decision-makers managing and responding to heatwaves and flood risks, this paper argues how more robust local evidence is needed to inform decision-making regarding adaptation options for enhancing local resilience. We identify evidence gaps and issues relating to local climate change impacts, including sources and quality of evidence used, adequacy and accessibility of evidence available, ill-communicated evidence and conflicting or misused evidence. A lack of appreciation regarding how scientific evidence and personal judgement can mutually enhance the quality of decision-making underpins all of these gaps. Additionally, we find that the majority of evidence currently used is reductively based upon socio-economic and physical characteristics of climate risks. We argue that a step change is needed in local climate resilience that moves beyond current physical and socio-economic risk characterisation to a more inclusive co-constitution of social and politically defined climate risks at the local scale that are better aligned with the local impacts felt and needs of stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid pressure for climate action worldwide, processes of deliberative democracy are being called upon to address public policy complexities, include citizens in decision-making, restore faith in public institutions and enhance governance processes. The citizens' assembly model is lauded internationally for the much-needed structure it provides to support bottom-up governance efforts as well as the potential for effective citizen engagement on complex topics. The Irish Citizens' Assembly, which took place from 2016 to 2018, is heralded as an example of best practice in design and execution. Yet, there is a dearth in analysis of its form, structure, impact and content, particularly in the climate crisis context. This paper examines one element of the deliberative democracy process that aimed to include a wider breadth of publics beyond the 99 citizens randomly selected to take part: the public submissions invited as part of the Citizens' Assembly process. In total, 1185 submissions were received on the topic of climate change. Our study undertakes a comprehensive content analysis of these submissions. Specifically, we explore (1) the content and concerns foregrounded within the submissions, (2) the frames and rhetorical strategies employed and (3) the stakeholders and scales called upon for climate action. The study identifies trends, preoccupations and salience within the corpus of written submissions and expands our understanding of citizen perceptions of climate science and policy. We offer both operational lessons for others aiming to enact similar deliberative forums as well as communications lessons for wider efforts to deepen public engagement on the climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the 22nd Conference of the Parties in 2016, the roles of non-state actors in global climate change were emphasized with a particular focus on international frameworks for corporate activities. Frameworks are intended to serve as international governance to help regulate corporate actions. However, companies' climate-related activities are voluntary and produce several issues. The current research addresses the following questions: How do international business frameworks work for governing and enforcing the practical implementation of corporate activities? In the future, what functions are expected to work for business sectors ensuring the 2050 goals? This study examines the function of international business frameworks from different perspectives according to socio-environmental challenges, enforcement measures, organizers, and embedded problems. First, the development process of the motivation of corporate activities is examined, from Corporate Social Responsibility to the long-term vision. Second, we conduct a thorough review of the public and private regimes and identify three key components of private regimes to achieve effective, legitimate, and compliant functions: participation, accountability, and norms. These three components are not ensured by one regime, but by different types of international frameworks: industry associations, international organizations, and third parties. This study illustrates how these three types of frameworks work with the key components for enforcement. Furthermore, with increasing expectations for corporate actions, companies are creating their own visions and principles to attain the 2050 global goal. This paper demonstrates that the function of international frameworks is expected to strengthen in terms of supporting and governing a company's actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers were invited to attend the two-day 'Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario' workshop and to participate in discussion and panel sessions. This paper provides a management perspective on the technical presentations presented at the workshop, identifying information of particular interest to Everglades restoration decision-making. In addition, the paper highlights the points related to science and decision-making that emerged from the discussion sessions and provides thoughts for future discussion in a follow-up forum. Particular focus is dedicated to the importance of and challenges associated with integrating science and decision-making. In addition, the paper offers a management perspective on the uncertainties of climate science and the implications they have for influencing Everglades restoration decision-making. The authors propose that on the one hand, even given uncertainties associated with predicting the ecological response to climate change, there remains a scientific consensus that Everglades restoration is generally on the right track. On the other hand, uncertainty can be a significant barrier to climate science influencing the implementation of restoration and adaptive management programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the theory of "snapshot/pullback attractors", we show that important features of the climate change that we are observing can be understood by imagining many replicas of Earth that are not interacting with each other. Their climate systems evolve in parallel, but not in the same way, although they all obey the same physical laws, in harmony with the chaotic-like nature of the climate dynamics. These parallel climate realizations evolving in time can be considered as members of an ensemble. We argue that the contingency of our Earth's climate system is characterized by the multiplicity of parallel climate realizations rather than by the variability that we experience in a time series of our observed past. The natural measure of the snapshot attractor enables one to determine averages and other statistical quantifiers of the climate at any instant of time. In this paper, we review the basic idea for climate changes associated with monotonic drifts, and illustrate the large number of possible applications. Examples are given in a low-dimensional model and in numerical climate models of different complexity. We recall that systems undergoing climate change are not ergodic, hence temporal averages are generically not appropriate for the instantaneous characterization of the climate. In particular, teleconnections, i.e. correlated phenomena of remote geographical locations are properly characterized only by correlation coefficients evaluated with respect to the natural measure of a given time instant, and may also change in time. Physics experiments dealing with turbulent-like phenomena in a changing environment are also worth being interpreted in view of the attractor-based ensemble approach. The possibility of the splitting of the snapshot attractor to two branches, near points where the corresponding time-independent system undergoes bifurcation as a function of the changing parameter, is briefly mentioned. This can lead in certain climate-change scenarios to the coexistence of two distinct sub-ensembles representing dramatically different climatic options. The problem of pollutant spreading during climate change is also discussed in the framework of parallel climate realizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correct mathematical approach to climate change requires the knowledge of the time-dependent system's pullback/snapshot attractor (PBA). Once the governing equations and external forcing are known, the PBA can be estimated by performing an ensemble simulation (ES) of many forward time integrations differing only by their respective initialization; the resulting ensemble mean and spread are usually considered as representative of the forced and internal variability (FV and IV), respectively. In this paper the PBA of an excitable conceptual ocean model subjected to an idealized decadal time-scale aperiodic forcing is determined and is then used to show that the system's relaxation oscillations contribute substantially to the ensemble mean, despite their intrinsic nature: as a consequence, a clear separation between the FV and IV is impossible in this case study. This provides an example of dynamical behaviour which may be typical of climate ESs under fluctuating aperiodic forcing. The impact of the number of ensemble members N on the statistical significance of the ES is then investigated. The complexity of realistic climate modelling currently imposes N = O(100): how significant is the statistical information derived from such small ESs? To answer this question for the present case study, the knowledge of the PBA is exploited to carry out a systematic comparison between the latter and small ESs with N = 50, also by using novel quantifiers specifically conceived for this purpose. The results reveal a remarkable significance of such ESs beyond the predictability time and may provide useful information for the design of future realistic ESs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global action being outpaced by climate change impacts, communities in climate-vulnerable countries are at increased risk of incurring climate-induced losses and damages. In the last few years, disasters from extreme weather events such as typhoons have increased and have breached records, with typhoon Haiyan being the strongest ever typhoon to make landfall. Such an event solicited global compassion and altruism where Canada and the USA, apart from doling out traditional humanitarian aid, also offered immigration relief opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims who have familial connections to their residents. Drawing from these immigration relief interventions, this paper uses a sociopolitical approach in proposing a climate humanitarian visa that would be offered to climate change victims on the basis of transnational family networks and skilled labor. Noting that several countries such as in Europe have demographic deficits and labor shortages, such a scheme would benefit both climate change victims and receiving countries. To counter the risk of selective compassion against economically trapped populations, potential receiving countries could provide skills upgrading geared toward addressing their labor shortages through their existing development programs. While migration is only one strategy in a spectrum of responses to climate change impacts, a climate humanitarian visa could provide climate change victims a legal choice for mobility while invoking altruism, hospitality, and compassion from potential receiving countries, whether or not they historically cause climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, 16 cities representing four major architectural climate zones of China were selected, and the heating and cooling loads of office building during the period of 1961–2017 were simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily extreme heating and cooling loads were determined by percentile methods, and the climate change impact on extreme loads was analyzed. The results showed that the days of extreme heating load of office building significantly decreased in almost all the selected cities, whereas there were no significant changes in the days of extreme cooling load. The daily extreme heating load was dominantly affected by the temperature (R2 = 0.43–0.79), but the daily extreme cooling load was related to multiple climate factors, including temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation. Single temperature can only explain 3–37% of the changes of daily extreme cooling load, and the combination of multiple climate factors can explain 58–85%. Importantly, the effect of temperature on extreme cooling load showed decrease from the cold to hot climate zones, but the impacts of relative humidity and solar radiation gradually increased. These results suggest that the maximum design capacity of heating systems can properly decrease, and the design capacity of cooling systems may not largely increase with the climate warming. In addition, the combined effect of multiple climate factors rather than the single temperature, as well as the different responses of extreme cooling energy consumption to climate change in different climate zones, should be considered when making measures for improving operating efficiency of air-conditioning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. Dry spells frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the period examined. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that gender diversity within research organizations can result in innovative research outcomes. It has also been recognized that gender homogeneity can undermine the quality and breadth of the research and may allow some to cast doubt on the legitimacy of scientific findings. In this paper, we present the results of a gender-based analysis of Canada's ArcticNet Networks Centers of Excellence. Representing Canada's single largest commitment to climate change science, ArcticNet has involved 761 researchers who have published >2400 peer-reviewed publications on the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Arctic. Our results indicate that, despite outnumbering their male peers at the graduate levels, the representation of women within ArcticNet exhibits a marked decline to only 21% (N = 51) of all ArcticNet investigators (N = 246). In addition to being numerically under-represented, female investigators in ArcticNet have fewer research collaborators and are generally less integrated into the network as compared to their male colleagues. Male investigators tend to form homophilious ties—publishing predominately with other males, whereas female investigators have heterophilious collaborations, with fewer peer-reviewed journal articles. Given the complexities of climate change research, particularly in the Arctic where the impacts of climate change are projected to be most extreme, the equitable inclusion of female scientists and other under-represented groups is crucial if sustainable solutions are to be found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public education system can play a pivotal role in creating an electorate that is well informed of the consensus around climate change and its anthropogenic causes. In particular, more states have education standards that specifically address climate change today than ever before. However, previous research raises concerns about the discretion teachers have in if and how particular types of content are presented. The effectiveness of new state standards and the extent to which such state-level standards are coopted by teacher discretion has received minimal attention. Therefore, using a nationally representative sample of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, this research examines the effectiveness of such state-level standards and the extent to which teacher ideology and knowledge mediate the relationship between standards and actual use of a consensus-informed approach to teaching climate science. Results show that teachers in states with any type of standards around climate change spend significantly more time on the topic in the classroom. However, teachers in states that have standards that require teachers to present "both sides" of climate change are significantly less likely to use a consensus-informed approach. While teacher characteristics (knowledge and ideology) can weaken their effect, standards continue to be important predictors of the time spent on climate change in the classroom and how content is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of climate science standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives a grounded cognition account of model-based learning of complex scientific knowledge related to socio-scientific issues, such as climate change. It draws on the results from a study of high school students learning about the carbon cycle through computational agent-based models and investigates two questions: First, how do students ground their understanding about the phenomenon when they learn and solve problems with computer models? Second, what are common sources of mistakes in students' reasoning with computer models? Results show that students ground their understanding in computer models in five ways: direct observation, straight abstraction, generalisation, conceptualisation, and extension. Students also incorporate into their reasoning their knowledge and experiences that extend beyond phenomena represented in the models, such as attitudes about unsustainable carbon emission rates, human agency, external events, and the nature of computational models. The most common difficulties of the students relate to seeing the modelled scientific phenomenon and connecting results from the observations with other experiences and understandings about the phenomenon in the outside world. An important contribution of this study is the constructed coding scheme for establishing different ways of grounding, which helps to understand some challenges that students encounter when they learn about complex phenomena with agent-based computer models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change, such as climate feedback, regional changes, or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections. In this paper, the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties, and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades. Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored, especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity, cloud feedback, and changes of the hydrological cycle. Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed. This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship. This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development. In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected, which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in climate service efforts continues to grow. However, more critical analysis could enhance how well climate services align with the needs of society. Collaborations between Native American Tribes (Tribes) and Climate Science Organizations (CSOs) providing decision-support for climate change planning accentuate the potential for climate services to have social justice implications through either deepening or softening existing inequities. This paper compares 30 Tribe-affiliated and 36 CSO-affiliated individuals' perceptions about potential harms and benefits associated with their collaborations with one another. The importance of the potential benefits of collaborations listed outweighed the potential harms listed for both groups, but while climate science organizations rated the potential benefits listed slightly higher than Tribes did, the potential harms listed were much more salient for Tribes. This finding highlights concerns that, without proper training and management, these collaborations may reinforce unequal relationships between settler and Indigenous populations. While CSOs appeared cognizant of their Tribe-affiliated colleagues' concerns, transitioning from a focus on building trust to establishing and sustaining shared systems of responsibilities might help these collaborations meet the needs of both groups more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the increasing relevance of cross-border flows of goods, capital and people in shaping risks and opportunities today, we still live in a "bordered" world, where the nation state plays a key role in planning and governance. Yet, climate change impacts will not be contained within country borders, meaning that climate change adaptation governance should also consider "borderless climate risks" that cascade through the international system, in relatively simple or highly complex ways. In this paper, we demonstrate how the notion of borderless climate risks challenges the dominant territorial framing of adaptation and its problem structure. To advance knowledge, we ask: why has a territorial framing and the national and sub-national scales dominated adaptation governance? How do borderless climate risks challenge this framing and what are possible governance responses? We draw on constructivist international relations theory and propose that the epistemic community that developed to interpret climate change adaptation for decision-makers had certain features (e.g. strong environmental sciences foundation, reliance on place-based case study research) that established and subsequently reinforced the territorial framing. This framing was then reinforced by an international norm that adaptation was primarily a national or local responsibility, which has paradoxically also informed calls for international responsibility for funding adaptation. We conclude by identifying types of governance responses at three different scales—national and bilateral; transnational; international and regional—and invite more systematic evaluation by the IR community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we discuss the endogenous formation of climate coalitions in an issue-linkage regime. In particular, we propose a preferential free trade agreement on which a climate coalition should be built. The basic idea is that the gains of free trade can provide strong incentives for countries to join the coalition. As a framework, a multi-stage strategic trade model is employed in which each country may set an emission cap being effective on a permit market. In addition, a discriminatory import tariff may be imposed on dirty goods. However, at the heart of our approach is a preferential free trade arrangement among the members of a climate coalition leading to a favourable shift in the terms of trade. As a main result, trade liberalisation is found as an institution highly effective in building climate coalitions. In particular, the parametrical simulation of the model shows that participation in joint emission reduction is higher, consumption patterns are more environmentally friendly, and coalitional welfare is much more improved than in case of a single-issue environmental agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in a monsoon domain, East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors. East Asian monsoon (EAM) research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising. Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper, focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales. Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM, such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea, the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM, or the transitional climate zone in East Asia, and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages. In addition, understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects, including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM, the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, and the roles of mid- to high-latitude processes. Finally, some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the world economy with interdependent markets for fossil fuel deposits and extracted fossil fuel, a coalition of countries may fight climate change by purchasing fossil fuel deposits for preservation. Harstad (J Polit Econ 120:77–115, 2012) has shown that the coalition's supply-side climate policy implements the first-best. The present paper focuses on the role exploration and asymmetric information with respect to climate damage plays for the efficiency of unilateral supply-side climate policy. Under the assumption of non-strategic exploration and truthful reporting of climate damage, the deposit policy turns out to be efficient. If exploration is used strategically or the coalition misreports its climate damage, however, the deposit policy becomes inefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris pledges are unique documents in climate governance that outline what each country intends to do to combat climate change. Often, these documents contain headline greenhouse gas percentage reduction targets that appear to summarize countries' contributions to mitigation. This is a boon for comparative climate policy research. However, I show in this paper that the Paris pledges require detailed interpretation to be comparable. I demonstrate the risks in comparing these targets by re-visiting a recent studying linking national public opinion to the stringency of countries' mitigation goals. I develop new indicators that better account for the structure of the targets and show in replications that the original finding is inconsistent with the underlying data. I conclude by drawing lessons for studying the Paris pledges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds on recent research on polycentric governance and the Ecology of Games to understand climate politics in the USA. Complementing previous work from 2005 to 2009, we map out the ideological networks of political actors engaged in the climate policy network using data from the US Congress as an arena of symbolic interaction. Our analysis identifies polycentric sites of ideological congruence and conflict in the discourse network on climate change. Political actors from different levels and including several actor types formed multiple centers that became bipolarized between the 112th and 114th sessions of the US Congress. This process took place in tandem with the increased participation of subnational actors in the polycentric system. By the 114th session of the Congress—during which the 2016 election took place—subnational policy actors, along with a diversity of other actors, contributed to an extremely polarized discussion of one of the central policies in the Obama Administration's Climate Action Plan: the Clean Power Plan. This finding is remarkable as the concept of polycentricity tends to be normatively associated with policy innovation, rather than stagnation. Our longitudinal analysis demonstrates, using Discourse Network Analysis, how increased multi-level participation can be associated with policy blockage of progressive climate policies rather than enabling policy innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]