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Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production, but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters. Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province in China as the case area, the paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of agricultural vulnerability to drought in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the period 2000 to 2020. The results show that: 1) the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City has shifted from high vulnerability in the period 2000–2010 to low vulnerability in the period 2011–2020. 2) There exist obvious spatio-temporal differences of the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City during the research period. 3) Four sensitive events and 14 resilient events were identified in the research and the crops of Yulin had become more resilient to drought. Finally, the paper put forward with policy implications to make adaptive strategies of agriculture to climate change in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the future, e.g., carrying out agricultural zoning based on agricultural production conditions, intensifying the construction of disaster prevention and relief system, and integrating with modern agricultural technology to develop new type agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer monsoon–affected area is a suitable area for agricultural production in China. Against the background of climate warming, the activity of the summer monsoon is changing significantly. The drought and flood disasters in this region are becoming more and more frequent and have a greater and more serious impact on agricultural production. Therefore, based on observational data from meteorological stations and yield loss data in agriculture caused by drought and flood disasters in summer monsoon–affected areas, this paper studied the characteristics of the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the risk of losses to agriculture caused by droughts and floods, and their correlation. Moreover, it compared and analyzed the variability of drought and flood hazard and risk to agriculture before and after a temperature rise. The results showed that the precipitation in summer monsoon–affected areas is obviously affected by monsoon activities, and there is an overall though non-significant positive correlation between annual average standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the summer monsoon activity index (MI). The drought disaster comprehensive loss rate (DCLR) was generally higher than the flood disaster comprehensive loss rate (FCLR). This shows that the impact of drought on agriculture production is significantly greater than that of floods in this area. The high hazard and risk areas for drought were mainly distributed along the edge of the summer monsoon area and in its vicinity, whereas the high hazard and risk areas for flooding were mainly distributed in the lower reach of the Yangtze, Songhua, and Liaohe Rivers. Among them, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang are high-risk superposition areas of drought and flood disasters. The hazards of drought and flood dominate the risk of disaster loss. Climate warming has significantly expanded the high-hazard and high-risk ranges in China for drought and flood disasters and has also changed their spatial distribution patterns. The high-hazard area for drought has shifted to the monsoon edge area, the high-risk area for drought has moved northward, and both the high-hazard and the high-risk areas for floods have clearly moved southward. The impact of climate warming on drought was more significant than on floods. This study provides important scientific guidance for formulating drought and flood disaster prevention planning and agricultural production development patterns in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. Dry spells frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the period examined. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carrying out risk assessments of agricultural drought disasters is helpful to understanding agricultural drought quantitatively and scientifically guiding drought prevention and drought relief work. In this paper, the risk assessment system and evaluation index of drought disasters are constructed, and they are composed of a drought risk subsystem, drought exposure subsystem, disaster damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance subsystem. Based on the grey matter-element analysis method, the agricultural drought risk evaluation model was established. Grey matter-element analysis method was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in 18 regions of Henan Province, China in 2019. The results validation showed that high drought disaster risk area in Henan province is located in the western, north and the central area. This study provides a new method for the risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters. Understanding the risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water-induced disasters are harmful and can cause drastic damage. The response to these disasters is critical, and this task continues to gain global attention. A quick and accurate assessment of the damage is vital to mitigate the effects of the water-induced disasters. This paper begins with exploring the S-shaped curve that is widely observed with many types of damage resulting from the various water-induced disasters. Following that, we propose a conceptual model using the grade of a disaster as the crucial factor and recommend a general function in the form of a hyperbolic tangent function. The damage assessment of the flood and drought events that occurred in the Yangtze River Delta was conducted to explain the processes involved in the function configuration. Flood season precipitation and soil moisture were incorporated into the flood and drought models, respectively, to simulate the functions in agricultural areas hit by drought or flood events. Comparing the calculated result and field survey shows the effectiveness of the proposed damaged estimate function. This proposed methodology can be used to quickly assess the flood and drought damage, and it can also be extended to other types of disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood, drought, hail, low temperature and frost disasters from low temperature and frost (DLTF), and snowstorm are the five main meteorological disasters (MDs) in China. Based on the collection of historical documents during 1950-2013 and official records between 2012 and 2013, this paper analyzed the temporal trends of affected area induced by MDs during 1950-2013 and the spatiotemporal characteristics of disaster frequency in recent 2 years in China. Besides, the direct economic losses and deaths caused by MDs were further discussed at a provincial level. Results showed that the affected area of MDs, especially flood, drought and DLTF significantly increased during the past 60 years. Flood was the most frequent disaster in China during 2012 and 2013, followed by hail. Spatial patterns of disaster frequency showed that there were more frequent floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basin, droughts in central and southwest China, hails in north, northwest and southwest China, DLTFs and snowstorms in north, northwest China and individual areas in south China. However, the economic losses caused by MDs were higher in economically developed provinces, and the deaths were higher in mountain regions. Additionally, flood was the major disasters type that contributing to the most losses in most regions of China. These results play an important theoretical guiding role in meteorological disaster prediction, disaster prevention and reduction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asian floods and droughts in summer show a typical dipole pattern with a north-south oscillation centered near 30°N, called the southern drought–northern flood (SDNF) pattern, which has caused significant economic losses and casualties in the past three decades. However, effective explanations and predictions are still challenging, making suitable disaster prevention more difficult. Here, we find that a key predictor of this dipole pattern is the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, tropical winds above 10 km). The QBO can modulate precipitation in East Asia, contributing the largest explained variation of this dipole pattern. A QBO-included statistical model can effectively predict summer floods and droughts at least three months in advance and explain at least 75.8% of precipitation variation. More than 30% of the SDNF pattern is attributed to the QBO in July-August 2020 and 2021. This result suggests a good prospect for using the tropical mid- to upper atmosphere in seasonal forecasts for summer. Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and flood are two of the most destructive natural disasters with the most significant impact and greatest losses in the Dadu River basin (DRB). However, their impacts on people's life have not attracted enough attention from scholars. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) describing the drought/flood situation and the Composite Index of Human Well-being (CIHW) are calculated, and a framework is further constructed to assess the impacts of drought and flood disasters on human well-being in the DRB. The results show that the annual and seasonal SPI in the DRB generally exhibit an increasing trend in fluctuations during 2000–2009, indicating a wetting climate in this basin. Overall, the upper reaches of the DRB have experienced an evolution of flood-drought-flood state transition, where the variation amplitude of the SPI in the western sub-basin is greater than that in the eastern sub-basin. In addition, the lower reaches of the DRB have suffered more dramatic and periodic changes from the drought/flood disasters in terms of the SPI. For human well-being during 2000–2019, Maerkang City in the upper reaches, Kangding City in the middle reaches, and Shimian County in the lower reaches of the DRB are at a relatively higher level, with the CIHW decreasing from administrative centers to the around. Moreover, the CIHW over the whole basin increases gradually from 2000 to 2019. The SPI has significantly negative effects on different capitals, following a descending order of financial, social, physical, human and natural capitals. The counties of the basin are divided into four groups, namely the group with high disaster risks and high human well-being, the group with high disaster risks and low human well-being, the group with low disaster risks and high human well-being, and the group with low disaster risks and low human well-being. The panel regression results suggest that the construction of water conservancy facilities, the financial inputs in agriculture and meteorology, and the educational level have positive impacts on human well-being, but the impacts differ from different groups. The construction of water conservancy facilities has highly significant impacts on human well-being in all groups; the education level has no significant impact on the group with high disaster risk and high human well-being, which has not passed the significance test; while the financial inputs in agriculture and meteorology have relatively higher impacts on the whole basin and on the group with low disaster risk and low human well-being compared with other groups. Therefore, it is suggested that the negative impacts of drought and flood disasters can be mitigated through strengthening infrastructure construction, responding appropriately to climate change, avoiding disasters at the source of major projects and improving the disaster prevention and mitigation systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts in winter and spring are one of the most prominent natural disasters in the Yunnan Province in China. They occur frequently, with long durations and have a wide range of damage, which has a serious impact on social and economic development, as well as agricultural production and, therefore, strongly impacts the lives of the people living in the region. The traditional drought monitoring model does not take terrain into consideration, thereby affecting the comparative nature of results, as baseline conditions are not the same. Therefore, this study proposed a comprehensive drought monitoring model considering the influence of terrain factors to improve the evaluation effect. Firstly, based on NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B43) data, vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), precipitation condition index (TRCI), and three terrain factors ground elevation (DEM), slope (SLOPE), aspect (ASPECT) were selected as model parameters. Then, a comprehensive drought monitoring model without considering terrain factors (Model A) and a comprehensive drought monitoring model of considering terrain factors (Model B) were constructed by using multiple linear regression models. Finally, the effects of the two models were evaluated by using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in southwest Yunnan Province, China, and model B was used to analyze the drought in winter and spring in the study area from 2008 to 2019. The results showed that (1) the correlation coefficient of model B was higher than that of model A in winter and spring and the standard error of model B was lower than that of model A. (2) The grade consistency rate of Model A and SPEI was 0.92 in winter and 0.33 in spring; the grade consistency between model B and SPEI was 0.83 in winter and 0.75 in spring, and therefore the monitoring effect of model B was more stable. (3) There were periodic droughts during the study period, and the degree of drought in spring was less than in winter. Medium and severe droughts were observed in winter. Thus, this study concluded that the effect of terrain has an important influence on the evaluation of droughts. The comprehensive drought monitoring model which considers topographic factors can effectively identify the occurrence of drought, and therefore provide significant input with regards to disaster prevention and mitigation policies in southwest Yunnan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The refined assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts is of great significance for drought evaluation. Based on monthly precipitation and temperature grid data (1961–2019) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin (MYRB), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The run theory was used to extract the drought features at the monthly scale, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of different drought levels were analyzed using Mann–Kendall mutation tests and spatial interpolation. The Moran' I was used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of droughts. The results showed that the drought trend in the MYRB increased from 1961 to 2019, with the SPEI exhibiting an overall decreasing rate of − 0.1145/decade. Decreasing rates were observed in spring (− 0.1356/decade), summer (− 0.0362/decade), and autumn (− 0.0745/decade), whereas an increasing rate was observed in winter (0.0781/decade). Only extreme droughts were long term, with an intensity as low as − 22.29. The highest frequencies were observed for mild–moderate droughts, which mainly showed high-value clusters in the western and central regions. The frequencies of severe–extreme droughts mainly presented low-value clusters in the northern and southwestern areas. The frequencies of mild and severe droughts exhibited significant spatial cluster characteristics, while the drought intensity showed non-significant spatial clusters and a random distribution. The high and low values of drought intensity were mainly clustered in the middle–upper reaches. The research results provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural planning, and water resource allocation in the MYRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly disaster-prone areas of the lower Teesta River basin in Bangladesh, this study explores households' risk perception of drought, earthquake, and flood at the local level. The ordered probit regression model was applied to identify the factors influencing household disaster risk perception. Most of the respondents perceived the likelihood of occurring drought, earthquake, and flood hazards on a large scale in the selected areas which cause negative impacts on their quality of life and financial losses. They have lack knowledge on mitigation actions which makes them unable to control the devastating impacts of disasters. Econometric results show that households' age, gender, education, and income-generating sources had significantly influenced the respondent's drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception. Female participants have less knowledge on mitigations actions and are less capable of controlling the hazards than their counterparts making them more vulnerable to the impacts of hazards. Urgent action is required to improve their socio-economic conditions, and to reduce the knowledge gap between males and females as well as to improve the household's understanding of mitigation and preparedness for disaster risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic development and population growth, the impacts of drought continue to affect China and the situation will probably be worsened further under projected climate warming. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of drought conditions and its actual impacts is especially important for disaster prevention and mitigations, under climatic warming. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations of drought, using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on two evaluation methods, i.e., scPDSITh (Thornthwaite method for calculating evapotranspiration) and scPDSIPM (Penman–Monteith method for calculating evapotranspiration). Results show the drought severities characterized by these two methods are highly consistent, except that the scPDSITh shows more drought severity than the scPDSIPM in some regions, e.g., Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia. Based on the scPDSIPM and drought disaster statistics, we adopted a downscaling approach to obtain the county level dataset of drought-affected area from the provincial level. Using this finer-scale dataset, we observed spatial agglomeration characteristics of drought-affected area during the study period, denoting by the Moran's I. Moreover, results show that the high-high clusters (high values surrounded by high values) of the drought-affected area are mainly distributed in northern China, and the moving direction of high-high clusters presents the East–West pattern. Combining the meteorological data and disaster statistics, this study can improve the accuracy of drought detection, which is important for disaster prevention and mitigations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Malawi has intensely been subjected to different climate-related shocks such as floods, dry spells, and droughts, resulting in decreases in crop yields. Due to their recurrence arising from the effects of climate change, drought characterization, monitoring, and prediction are crucial in guiding agriculture-water users and planners to prepare drought risk management plans and early warning systems. This research analyzed droughts, using multiple drought indices and their impacts on dominant crops over Central Malawi. Forty years of hydro-meteorological data (1977–2017) from nine rain-gauging stations and crop yield data from 1983 to 2017 from four districts were analyzed. The study discovered that drought events in the Agricultural Development Division (ADD) are highly a function of rainfall deficit and high temperatures. The results highlighted that the rainfall patterns in the area are not dependable, calling for the utilization of climate-smart irrigation systems such as drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting technologies. Furthermore, we achieved that crops such as cassava and groundnuts must be promoted to withstand the long water stress duration. These crops also have a multiplier effect; hence, they can enhance food security in the region. This study recommends that using more robust variables in drought analysis studies is necessary for effective drought monitoring and early warning systems. In corroboration with disaster management NGOs, it is recommended that the government should be proactive in developing integrated drought management policies and planning strategies for drought adaptation and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable information on the frequency and duration of excessive precipitation in floods, droughts, earthquakes, coastal floods, and hill torrents is critical to natural disaster planning and disaster risk reduction strategies. The current study examined precipitation on a monthly, seasonal, and annual scale at varying amplitudes. Moreover, the Mann–Kendall and Sen Innovatiove trend analysis (ITA) approaches are used to examine precipitation variations. This study aims to evaluate the Mann–Kendall and Sen Innovative Trend Analysis techniques to understand better how they apply to the topic under consideration. Overall, 84.16% of testing months showed trendless precipitation based on the MK trend test. Comparatively, the ITA monthly analysis showed statistically significant variation in 80% months and 88% considerable rate in seasonal perspective over the entire study regions. The research recognized that the Sen Innovative trend test outperforms the Mann–Kendall analysis in a range of circumstances. First of all, Sen Approach has simple assumptions, and the study of skewed distributions with fewer data could apply. Another benefit of using the ITA was that all data sets could be viewed on a graph, making it easier to see patterns and interpret the trends. Thus, the research recommends that the Sen Trend Method (ITA) analyze monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation patterns to facilitate water resource scheduling and establish natural disaster strategies in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of climate warming, drought events occur frequently. Generally, meteorological drought leads to agricultural drought. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution, characteristics of drought and the relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought are important for early drought warning. Northeast China (NEC) was selected as the study area. The spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought and agricultural drought in different seasons in NEC were analyzed. Correlation analysis was employed to analyze the relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought in different vegetation types. Furthermore, cross-wavelet analysis was employed to further analyze the relationship between meteorological drought and agricultural drought, explore the teleconnection and large-scale climate patterns and investigate possible causes of drought variations in this region. The results showed that (1) the frequency of mild meteorological drought and low and that of moderate agricultural drought was high; (2) there was a significant positive correlation between meteorological drought and agricultural drought, while the change in agricultural drought lagged behind that of meteorological drought. (3) A strong correlation between meteorological drought and agricultural drought was identified in cropland areas. (4) The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific interannual oscillation were important factors affecting the changes in meteorological drought and agricultural drought NEC. The results provide scientific ground for the sustainable development of agriculture, drought monitoring and early warning, disaster prevention and mitigation in NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of climate warming, drought disasters occur frequently in China, especially in the Central China. In this study, drought disaster grade sequences from 14 representative stations were chosen from 268 years of drought disaster historical data for the Hunan Province of China collected during the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods were used to conduct a spatial characteristics analysis of these drought disasters. The results are as follows. (1) There was an inconsistency between the frequency and intensity of the drought disasters. (2) The spatial distribution of the first four EOF loads for the drought disasters showed regional consistency; however, there was a difference in the anti-phase changes in the east–west, south–north, and central directions. (3) The features of the drought disaster distribution in the Hunan Province during the Qing Dynasty are evident, and according to the high values (absolute value ≥ 0.6) for the first six EOF rotational loads, the study area can be divided into the following sections: northeast Xiang (Section I), west Xiang (Section II), southeast Xiang (Section III), middle Xiang (Section IV), north Xiang (Section V), and southwest Xiang (Section VI). The study of drought disasters in Qing Dynasty is of great significance and reference value for disaster prevention, disaster reduction and climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought risk management has gradually emerged as an important discipline and the traditional negative drought management changes to active drought management. Drought risk assessment and control are the core of drought risk management. In this study, based on precipitation anomaly (Pa) and soil moisture content anomaly index, the stochastic drought index model was established to calculate the drought distribution under different probability. Considering risk of disaster (H), vulnerability of the environment (S), exposure of the disaster bearing body (V), and disaster prevention and mitigation capability (C), a water resource optimization allocation model based on drought disaster risk assessment model was established to minimize the regional drought disaster risk. The developed models were used in Heilongjiang Province, China, and the results showed that: (1) the drought indexes based on the stochastic method can reflect the regional drought under different probabilities, providing managers with comprehensive drought information to manage the disaster; (2) the optimal allocation of water resources can reduce the risk of drought disaster in drought-prone months and drought-prone areas; and (3) studying drought risk assessment and regulation considering grain yield can be used to effectively understand and alleviate drought effects in the study area, reduce farmers' economic losses and ensure local food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the major natural disasters in northern China. Therefore, monitoring and analyzing the changes of drought indices can provide scientific evidence for disaster assessment and for instituting policies for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this work, we used the gridded precipitation data set of a semi-arid steppe region in the Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1962 to 2017 to calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). By comparing the spatiotemporal distribution of the two indices with the historical drought records, we found that the SPI was more suitable for the drought description in the study area. Based on this, we calculate the SPI at different time scales (annual and seasonal), then depict the spatiotemporal variation of drought during the past 56 years by analyzing the frequency of drought events, drought frequency, and the station frequency ratio. The results indicate that in recent years, the degree of drought in the study area has increased, and the south-central regions are the highest occurrence area for different types of drought events. In addition, light drought occurs mostly in the autumn and is mainly distributed in the central and southern parts of the study area. The most extreme drought events often occur in the summer, and the highest frequency area is located in the western part of the study area. Large-scale light drought occurred in all seasons in the 1990s, while the domain moderate drought and the domain extreme drought occurred in the summers of 2001 and 2010, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater plays an important role in mitigating drought. It is necessary to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of groundwater and establish an appropriate assessment for the risk of drought for disaster prevention. This study developed a novel approach for the drought risk assessment system based on the Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) method to understand the spatial distribution of the risk of drought in terms of groundwater. We analyzed drought vulnerability applying the HHT to analyze the variation characteristics of groundwater level spatiotemporally and the physical mechanism of groundwater factors to quantify groundwater sensitivity to the environment, and present the resilience of each region. Furthermore, the drought hazard was determined using the standardized precipitation index and the dynamic drought intensity gave the durability characteristics of each region. The drought exposure was also investigated, which quantifies the water demand to satisfy people's livelihoods for a certain population density. Based on the framework proposed in this study, an overall risk map of droughts in the Pingtung Plain was obtained. This study effectively classified the main time–frequency characteristics, the availability of groundwater, and the risk of drought in each region. A total of 11 of the 45 groundwater monitoring stations are located at the highest risk of level 5, most of which are located in the coastal area of Gaoping River and Linbian River. Over-pumping should be avoided in these areas. On the contrary, the alluvial fan area showed the lowest groundwater risk of drought. The results can be adopted for water management, drought resilience, sustainable development of groundwater resources, and decision making in determining drought risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtually all climate monitoring and forecasting efforts concentrate on hazards rather than on impacts, while the latter are a priority for planning emergency activities and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies. Effective disaster risk management strategies need to consider the prevailing "human terrain" to predict who is at risk and how communities will be affected. There has been little effort to align the spatiotemporal granularity of socioeconomic assessments with the granularity of weather or climate monitoring. The lack of a high-resolution socioeconomic baseline leaves methodical approaches like machine learning virtually untapped for pattern recognition of extreme climate impacts on livelihood conditions. While the request for "better" socioeconomic data is not new, we highlight the need to collect and analyze environmental and socioeconomic data together and discuss novel strategies for coordinated data collection via mobile technologies from a drought risk management perspective. A better temporal, spatial, and contextual understanding of socioeconomic impacts of extreme climate conditions will help to establish complex causal pathways and quantitative proof about climate-attributable livelihood impacts. Such considerations are particularly important in the context of the latest big data-driven initiatives, such as the World Bank's Famine Action Mechanism (FAM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquake-drought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity (frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change (amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include (1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making; (2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012; (3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012–2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters; (4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gansu Province is a high-incidence area for many meteorological disasters. In this research, using affected and covered risk indices for the main agro-meteorological disasters (drought, flood, wind hail, and frost), the variability characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters were analyzed and the risks calculated based on the information diffusion method against the background of climate change in Gansu Province. The results showed that of affected (crop yield reduced by >10%) and covered (crop yield reduced by >30%) areas for drought and frost tended to increase between 1978 and 2014, whereas those for flood and wind hail tended to decrease. The affected and covered risk indices for drought increased, those for flood and wind hail showed a slight decreasing trend, the frost affected risk index decreased, and the frost covered risk index increased. Comparing the four kinds of risk for agro-meteorological disasters, the estimated risk decreased as the affected and covered risk indices increased. The risk of drought was more serious than those for other agro-meteorological disasters for the same affected risk index, followed by frost, flood, and wind hail. The most serious disaster agro-meteorological covered risk was wind hail, followed by drought, flood, and frost. After a rapid change in temperature in 1994, the estimated affected risk values of drought and frost increased on average by 17.56 and 96.83%, respectively, whereas the estimated risks of flood and wind hail decreased on average by 15.59 and 5.90%, respectively. After the temperature jump, the estimated covered risk of drought increased on average by 19.57%, whereas those of flood, wind hail, and frost decreased on average by 3.02, 1.78, and 26.10%, respectively. These new scientific discoveries are significant for agro-meteorological disaster prevention in Gansu Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]