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Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we quantify the changes in precipitation distribution in south-western Poland between the periods 1891-1930 and 1981-2010. The average monthly precipitation totals available for 368 and 245 stations, respectively, are spatially interpolated and processed to calculate maps of differences and pluvial continentality indices for both periods. The maps are analysed against changes in atmospheric circulation and take into account the potential role of the mountain barrier of the Sudetes. The main findings are (1) winter totals generally increased in conjunction with a higher frequency of zonal circulation; it is more pronounced in the upper parts of the Sudetes due to orographic effects; (2) a decreased frequency of zonal circulation together with an increased frequency of southern flows has likely led to the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn. These changes have led to a significant modification of the region's pluvial regime, mostly by decreasing continentality features (especially in the Sudetes and the western lowlands). In addition, the strong sheltering influence of the mountain barrier is observed, driving the preservation or even the enhancement of the continental pluvial characteristics in the north-eastern to eastern foregrounds of the Sudetes. This leads to the conclusion that in areas where long-term observed trends or future projections of precipitation are ambiguous, there may occur significant modifications in regional characteristics, especially as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation modified by local orography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO2 simulation and the model’s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the COBE sea surface temperature (SST) and the GPCC precipitation, the influences of El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of winter rainfall anomalies in Southeast China is analyzed under the synergistic effect of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation of the years of IOD concurring with ENSO are compared with single IOD or ENSO, to reveal the mechanism of synergistic effects on the variability of winter rainfall anomalies in Southeast China. The results show that the correlation between IOD/ENSO and the winter precipitation in Southeast China has increased since 1980s. These correlations were significant in years of IOD and ENSO co-occurrence compared to years of IOD or ENSO only, which is mainly due to the lagged atmospheric thermal and dynamic responses to an IOD forcing in synergy with ENSO. The positive IOD (PIOD) events can trigger and modify the anticyclone to the east of India, which transports moisture from the tropical Indian Ocean to Southeast China. In addition, El Niño events can strengthen the abnormal anticyclone over Philippines in winter, which is conducive to maintain the water vapor channel from the tropical western Pacific to Southeast China. Information flow analysis shows that the causalities between IOD and ENSO were enhanced after 1980s, causing the significant increase in the frequency of winter abnormal precipitation in the years of IOD and ENSO concurrence. Furthermore, the higher frequency of PIOD with El Niño (compared to negative IOD with La Niña) attained a ratio of 2:1 after the 1980s, enhancing the Southeast China winter precipitation events associated with IOD and ENSO and the generation of interdecadal variability. This study is helpful to understand the mechanisms of winter precipitation changes in Southeast China, and to improve the forecast accuracy of winter extreme precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warming, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipitation changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circulation response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South of Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding local SST control on precipitation during monsoon is important for deducing climate change due to global warming, particularly for warm oceans. Studies of the relationship of the precipitation over tropical oceans with local sea surface temperature (SST), on the monthly scale, have shown that the propensity for precipitation is high for SST above a threshold of 27.5 ∘ C/28 ∘ C. However, for warm oceans with SST above the threshold such as the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, for each SST, there is a large variation of precipitation and the SST–precipitation relationship is weak. On daily scale mean precipitation increases slightly with SST when precipitation lags SST by a few days, but the relationship between them is rather weak. But, when SST is above the threshold, for daily, pentad, 10-day and monthly time scales, and with or without time lag, the curve depicting the variation of mean precipitation with SST explains only a small fraction of precipitation variance and hence cannot be considered to be representative of the SST–precipitation relationship, or used to deduce the impact of SST on precipitation. On the other hand, the local control on precipitation is predominantly atmospheric dynamics with the relationship of variation of precipitation to low-level convergence on all timescales, being strong. This suggests that for warm oceans, the limiting resource for precipitation/convection is not SST but dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901–2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong logical relationships exist between temperature difference and hydro-meteorological variables such as precipitation, dry days, and dry spells. These relationships can be used for knowing how the differences of total and top 10% heavy precipitations, dry days, and dry spells will change with respect to temperature differences? Here, daily precipitation and temperature records over Turkey are considered from 1971 to 2010, inclusive. First 30-year (1971-2000) data are used for training for temperature difference function (ΔT) and the remaining 10-year (2001-2010) is reserved for validation. The temperature difference function is validated by mean relative error, and the results are calculated for total and top 10% heavy precipitation, dry days, and spells as 14.60%, 6.14%, 2.81%, and 11.89%, respectively. The strong relationship exists between temperature difference function and standard deviation of corresponding climatic variables. Results show that standard deviation and mean relative error (MRE) have linear correlation. Also, ΔT model predictions are compared with CMIP5 RCPs projections from 2020 to 2100. The suggested model predictions fall within the range of various atmosphere-ocean global circulation (climate) model (AOGCM) scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projections, in addition to model predictions cross-correlation for RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during boreal spring, which involves surface sensible heating, latent heating released by convection and radiation flux heat, is critical for the seasonal and subseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon. Distinct from the situation in March and April when the TP thermal forcing is modulated by the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the North Atlantic, the present study shows that it is altered mainly by the SSTA in the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in May, according to in-situ observations over the TP and MERRA reanalysis data. In the positive phase of the IOBM, a local Hadley circulation is enhanced, with its ascending branch over the southwestern Indian Ocean and a descending one over the southeastern TP, leading to suppressed precipitation and weaker latent heat over the eastern TP. Meanwhile, stronger westerly flow and surface sensible heating emerges over much of the TP, along with slight variations in local net radiation flux due to cancellation between its components. The opposite trends occur in the negative phase of the IOBM. Moreover, the main associated physical processes can be validated by a series of sensitivity experiments based on an atmospheric general circulation model, FAMIL. Therefore, rather than influenced by the remote SSTAs of the northern Atlantic in the early spring, the thermal forcing of the TP is altered by the Indian Ocean SSTA in the late spring on an interannual timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region’s two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work documents long-term changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation in the austral spring-summer season in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, showing that those changes are larger in magnitude and closer to ERA-Interim and other reanalyses if models include a dynamical representation of the stratosphere. Specifically, models with a high-top and included dynamical and—in some cases—chemical feedbacks within the stratosphere better simulate the lower stratospheric cooling observed over 1979-2001 and strongly driven by ozone depletion, when compared to the other models. This occurs because high-top models can fully capture the stratospheric large scale circulation response to the ozone-induced cooling. Interestingly, this difference is also found at the surface for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes, even though all model categories tend to underestimate SAM trends over those decades. In this analysis, models including a proper dynamical stratosphere are more sensitive to lower stratospheric cooling in their tropospheric circulation response. After a brief discussion of two RCP scenarios, our study confirms that at least for large changes in the extratropical regions, stratospheric changes induced by external forcing have to be properly simulated, as they are important drivers of tropospheric climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the performance of dynamical seasonal forecast systems is evaluated for the prediction of short rain anomalies over equatorial East Africa. The evaluation is based on observational datasets and the Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) Ocean-Atmosphere coupled multi-model ensemble (MME) retrospective forecasts (hindcasts). These forecast systems have different hindcast periods; here, we have selected common years from 1982 to 2005. The ensembles of individual models and their MME mean are evaluated. Hindcasts initialized on the 1st of August from each year alone are considered, as these are the most relevant to short rain predictions. The coupled climate model ensemble reproduces the spatial distribution of mean September-October-November (SON) rainfall and seasonal climate variations over equatorial East Africa with further improvement in MME mean. Individual coupled models and MME mean also show statistically significant skill in forecasting sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) over the western and eastern parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean, giving significant correlation at 99 % confidence level for Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Moreover, five out of ten coupled models and MME mean show statistically significant skill in predicting equatorial East Africa short rains. The fidelity of hindcasts is further measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and four models as well as MME mean show significant skill over East Africa. It is shown that the reproduction of the observed variability in the East African region is mainly due to a realistic relationship of East African rainfall with the Indian Ocean dipole. Overall, the skill of the dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving SSTs are the primary source of predictability and to the fact that coupled climate models produce skillful predictions of SON SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. This information opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal forecasts as skillful predictions of equatorial East Africa short rains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new ring-width record from the eastern flanks of the Eastern Sakhalin Range, Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation is significantly correlated with summer temperatures and allows for the reconstruction of May-July average temperatures for the past 400 years. The reconstruction explains 37 % of the variance in May-July temperatures and shows a strong cooling between 1680 and 1710 CE coincident with the Maunder solar minimum and in agreement with other independent tree-ring reconstructions and glacier histories from sites along the margin of the Sea of Okhotsk. While recent decades are among the warmest in the record they are rivaled by periods centered on 1650 and 1850 CE. Warming in the observational record and the reconstruction is consistent with the influence of the declining strength of the Siberian High and loss of sea ice over the same interval. Decadal (17-25 year) variability persists throughout the reconstruction. At interannual timescales the Sakhalin reconstruction is most strongly correlated with local and central North Pacific sea surface temperatures over the past 120 years, whereas at decadal timescales there is an additional association with Asian land surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates model fidelity in simulating relationships between seasonally averaged precipitation, cloud fraction and surface insolation from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project (NARCCAP) hindcast using observational data from ground stations and satellites. Model fidelity is measured in terms of the temporal correlation coefficients between these three variables and the similarity between the observed and simulated joint probability distribution functions (JPDFs) in 14 subregions over the conterminous United States. Observations exhibit strong negative correlations between precipitation/cloud fraction and surface insolation for all seasons, whereas the relationship between precipitation and cloud fraction varies according to regions and seasons. The skill in capturing these observed relationships varies widely among the NARCCAP regional climate models, especially in the Midwest and Southeast coast regions where observations show weak (or even negative) correlations between precipitation and cloud fraction in winter due to frequent non-precipitating stratiform clouds. Quantitative comparison of univariate and JPDFs indicates that model performance varies markedly between regions as well as seasons. This study also shows that comparison of JPDFs is useful for summarizing the performance of and highlighting problems with some models in simulating cloud fraction and surface insolation. Our quantitative metric may be useful in improving climate models by highlighting shortcomings in the formulations related with the physical processes involved in precipitation, clouds and radiation or other multivariate processes in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble of future climate projections performed with the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to assess changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America (SMECAM). Two different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 are used to provide boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations. This results in four regional climate projections extending from 1970 to 2100 for the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. The precipitation variability over the SMECAM region and its dependence on the gradient between Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are verified by reproducing SST anomaly patterns during wettest and driest years similar to those seen in observational datasets. RegCM4 does a comparably better job than the driving GCMs. This strong relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies does not appear to change substantially under future climate conditions. For the rainy season, June to September, we find a future change in inter-annual variability of precipitation towards a much greater occurrence of very dry seasons over the SMECAM region, with this change being more pronounced in the regional than in the global model projections. A greater warming of the Tropical Northeastern Pacific (TNP) compared to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which causes stronger wind fluxes from the TNA to the TNP through the Caribbean Low Level Jet, is identified as the main process responsible for these drier conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The West Rapti River (WRR), one of the dynamic and economically important basins of Nepal, was focused in this study to understand the impact of climate change in localized scale. The adopted methodology was a community-based field survey followed by a hydrological modeling to estimate present and future flood damages for households and agriculture. Flood disaster occurred in 2007 was simulated and discussed. High-resolution atmospheric general circulation model's precipitation outputs for emission scenario A1B were utilized with their bias corrections to obtain the precipitation patterns over lower WRR basin for Present (1979-2003) and Future (2075-2099) periods. A conceptual hydrologic model was employed to obtain the time series of daily river runoffs for the above-mentioned time durations followed by frequency analyses for probable flood discharges of 25- and 50-year return periods. Flood inundation simulations of 50-year return period events for Present and Future were carried out with the rainfall-runoff-inundation model followed by a flood damage assessment for household and agriculture based on the inundation simulation results, and field survey data over the target area and potential flood damages were discussed. Integration of hydrological modeling and socioeconomic approach to foresee potential flood damages was achieved, and the adopted damage assessment methodology was systematically explained. The total increments of household and agriculture damages due to climate change were estimated for Present as 1.80 and 1.95, and for Future, it was 2.40 and 2.27, respectively, compared to 2007 flood disaster. Future flood frequencies, intensities, and consequent damages in the area show a significant increment compared to the present situation despite limitations and uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]