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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread seriously throughout the world. Predicting the spread, or the number of cases, in the future can facilitate preparation for, and prevention of, a worst-case scenario. To achieve these purposes, statistical modeling using past data is one feasible approach. This paper describes spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 case counts in 47 prefectures of Japan using a nonlinear random effects model, where random effects are introduced to capture the heterogeneity of a number of model parameters associated with the prefectures. The negative binomial distribution is frequently used with the Paul-Held random effects model to account for overdispersion in count data; however, the negative binomial distribution is known to be incapable of accommodating extreme observations such as those found in the COVID-19 case count data. We therefore propose use of the beta-negative binomial distribution with the Paul-Held model. This distribution is a generalization of the negative binomial distribution that has attracted much attention in recent years because it can model extreme observations with analytical tractability. The proposed beta-negative binomial model was applied to multivariate count time series data of COVID-19 cases in the 47 prefectures of Japan. Evaluation by one-step-ahead prediction showed that the proposed model can accommodate extreme observations without sacrificing predictive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparative assessment of pandemic governance in Japan and the United States helps explain the strikingly different shapes of the Covid-19 pandemic in these two countries. Japan has more successfully managed the pandemic compared to the striking failure of the US response. This paper uses the metaphor of the control tower of an airport to examine four aspects of pandemic governance: (1) the culture of the control tower, showing strikingly different cultures of mask-wearing; (2) the social value context of the control tower, reflecting a greater tendency in Japan for people to follow government advice, compared to the US libertarian values of emphasizing personal liberty and disregarding official advice; (3) the role of national leadership, especially who is sitting in the control tower making decisions, with Prime Minister Abe largely taking responsibility while President Trump effectively left decisions up to markets and individual states; and (4) the use and clarity of information provided by control-tower authorities, showing greater clarity and consistency in Japan compared to the confused and contradictory messages in the US. These differences in control-tower governance have had marked effects on the pandemic responses of the two countries and have important implications for sustaining democratic traditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]