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This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Internationally, cultural factors are associated with vaccine uptake and completion in ethnic minority communities. Whilst Australia has achieved high human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, little is known about how culture or ethnicity influences HPV vaccination engagement. To address these gaps, we partnered with our Local Health District to explore how one culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) community engages with school and HPV vaccination. Methods: We adapted a participatory research method (the World Café) to engage one local CALD community—the Macedonian community (Our bi‐cultural researcher and participants preferred the term 'Macedonia' rather than The Republic of North Macedonia as outlined in the 2018 Prespa agreement) in New South Wales (Australia)—to discuss HPV and school vaccination. Our qualitative analysis combined deductive codes taken from the Tailoring Immunization Programme framework, inductive codes guided by narrative inquiry (temporality, sociality and place) and previously known vaccination 'trust' frameworks. Results: In late 2019, 31 local Macedonian community members were purposely recruited for two World Cafés (n = 15 mothers/grandmothers and n = 16 young adults). Our themes reveal a community narrative grounded in historical vaccine experiences, family views on vaccination and a general trust in schools. Participants collectively discussed how 'increasing knowledge' and 'tailoring health communications' could strengthen community vaccine decision‐making. Conclusion: This study demonstrates how research partnerships and participatory methods can be applied in CALD community settings to research engagement with school and HPV vaccination. Our World Café dialogues highlight a positive narrative about vaccines, where community vaccination behaviours were built on multilayer trust relationships despite low vaccine knowledge. Our findings further knowledge around 'public trust' in school vaccination, highlighting the importance of existing (or missing) trust relationships when tailoring vaccine communication to local CALD communities. Patient or Public Contribution: Participants who took part in the World Cafes were all local Macedonian community parents or young adults who have been or will be exposed to the health services offered by school‐based HPV vaccination. Thus, all the data collected came from their personal experiences with the school vaccination programme, or how they expect to participate in the programme. To ensure our study design was culturally appropriate and tailored to the Macedonian community, we engaged with the relevant local health stakeholders (the bi‐cultural Multicultural Health Officer and Multicultural Health Service Manager Programme Director) to adapt and refine the World Café method for this context and setting. Our local health stakeholders also reviewed our preliminary findings, assisted with data interpretation and participated in manuscript editing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical weather observations on the daily scale are vital for the improvement of reanalysis products and the analysis of long‐term variability of extreme events. While daily datasets extend for several centuries in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, the majority of historical data for the Southern Hemisphere are monthly averages or totals. In this paper, we describe a newly recovered dataset of ten daily meteorological variables for 1877 to 1922 from Eversleigh, a property in the New England region of New South Wales in Australia. Here, we present the full process of data rescue, from digitization to quality control and an assessment of homogeneity. We show that the majority of variables were recorded to a high standard and that the data are of general use for climate analysis. Forty years of daily temperature, cloud cover, wind, and pressure observations are now available for the New England Plateau, offering data that are more complete than any other records for the region in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dataset. The Eversleigh dataset now provides an opportunity to gain more insight into the 19th century weather and climate of eastern Australia during a time of large interannual climate variability before the dominant impact of an anthropogenic warming signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In this article, we use an autoethnographic approach to explore relationships between landholders and government agencies and natural resource management projects. We use this exploration to argue for a holistic, collaborative approach to decision making around the implementation of biodiversity conservation on private and public land. This approach aligns with principles underpinning reconciliation ecology, which emphasises the inclusion of grass‐roots communities for promoting biodiversity conservation in human‐dominated landscapes where approaches to the management of natural resources may be contested. We present three projects (Environmental Champions; Fencing Incentive programmes; Plains‐wanderer programme) and other research from the Mid‐Murray Valley region of southern New South Wales to highlight the positive and negative aspects of relationships between landholders and others in natural resource management. We argue that for a more collaborative approach; we need to build relationships based on understanding, trust, respect, ownership and partnerships between rural communities, landholders, education and research institutions and government agencies as recognised in reconciliation ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Triticale (×Triticosecale) is a hybrid between wheat (Triticum spp.) and rye (Secale cereale), producing higher grain yields than wheat in challenging environments. Triticale grain is also highly nutritious. Thus, the potential of triticale grain for an expanded range of food applications should be explored. Sourdough bread has unique functional and nutritional properties, but understanding the effects of partial substitution of triticale for wheat flour and varying levels of dough moisture content on sourdough quality requires further research. The aim of this study was to evaluate the wholegrain flour of contrasting triticale cultivars in comparison to that of a common wheat cultivar in commercial sourdough breadmaking. Two triticale cultivars (Goanna and Hawkeye, selected from a panel of Australian genotypes) and one wheat cultivar (Scout) were grown in a field trial in northern NSW, Australia. Differences in quantitative texture and color parameters of the dough and sourdough bread resulting from (1) substitution of commercial wholemeal wheat flour with different proportions of wholegrain triticale or wholegrain wheat (Scout) flour (0%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%) and (2) varying the amount of water included in the dough preparation (70%, 80%, 90%, and 100 g water/100 g flour) were determined. Replacement of wholemeal wheat flour with 60% wholegrain Goanna flour (protein content 12.76%; c.f. 11.50% for Hawkeye, 12.40% for Scout), and addition of 100 g water/100 g flour in the dough preparation gave the highest quality sourdough bread based on specific volume, texture, and color parameters and had similar properties to the control made from wheat alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months of life offers the recommended best start in the life for a newborn baby. Yet, in Australia only a small number of babies receive breast milk exclusively for the first 6 months. Reasons for the introduction of formula milk are multi‐factorial including access to appropriate support and the woman's experience of breastfeeding. The language and practices of health professionals can impact upon how a woman feels about breastfeeding and her breastfeeding body. One aspect of breastfeeding support that has had scarce attention in the literature is the language used by health professionals to describe the behaviour of the breastfeeding infant during the early establishment phase of breastfeeding. This paper reveals some of the ways in which midwives, lactation consultants and breastfeeding women describe the newborn baby during the first week after birth. The study was conducted at two maternity units in New South Wales. Interactions between midwives and breastfeeding women were observed and audio recorded on the post‐natal ward and in women's homes, in the first week after birth. The transcribed data were analysed using discourse analysis searching for recurring words, themes and metaphors used in descriptions of the breastfeeding baby. Repeated negative references to infant personality and unfavourable interpretations of infant behaviour influenced how women perceived their infant. The findings revealed that positive language and interpretations of infant breastfeeding behaviour emerged from more relationship‐based communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated distribution models (IDMs) predict where species might occur using data from multiple sources, a technique thought to be especially useful when data from any individual source are scarce. Recent advances allow us to fit such models with latent terms to account for dependence within and between data sources, but they are computationally challenging to fit.We propose a fast new methodology for fitting integrated distribution models using presence/absence and presence‐only data, via a spatial random effects approach combined with automatic differentiation. We have written an R package (called scampr) for straightforward implementation of our approach.We use simulation to demonstrate that our approach has comparable performance to INLA—a common framework for fitting IDMs—but with computation times up to an order of magnitude faster. We also use simulation to look at when IDMs can be expected to outperform models fitted to a single data source, and find that the amount of benefit gained from using an IDM is a function of the relative amount of additional information available from incorporating a second data source into the model. We apply our method to predict 29 plant species in NSW, Australia, and find particular benefit in predictive performance when data from a single source are scarce and when compared to models for presence‐only data.Our faster methods of fitting IDMs make it feasible to more deeply explore the model space (e.g. comparing different ways to model latent terms), and in future work, to consider extensions to more complex models, for example the multi‐species setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the causal impact of internal migration on housing prices across 82 Statistical Areas Level 3 regions in Queensland, Australia from 2014–2019. The primary findings are: (i) an annual increase in the inflow of migrants equal to 1 per cent of a region's initial population leads to a 0.6 to 0.7 per cent annual increase in Queensland's house prices across different empirical specifications; (ii) this effect differs between the Greater Brisbane metropolitan area and Rest of State areas; (iii) migration from New South Wales fails to produce a significant influence on house price growth in Queensland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address uncertainties surrounding the impacts of unprecedented 2019–20 bushfires in south‐eastern Australia, we convened a symposium on field‐measured impacts on biodiversity for the 2020 Ecological Society of Australia conference. Nine presentations covered a range of studies on plant species and communities, and reptiles and mammals. Here, we summarize the presentations and review other field studies from NSW, some of which are currently unpublished. The impacts were extensive, but results also estimated survival rate perhaps higher than first reported in the media. More than half of individual mammal, reptile and threatened rainforest trees may have survived the fire, though small populations remain very vulnerable to second fire in the near future. Comprehensive understanding of the impacts of these fires requires much more field study, and for the results to be interpreted in the context of the broader fire regime. The symposium was an important early step in that understanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Biodiversity monitoring is crucial for effective conservation efforts. Effective monitoring allows managers to determine the status and trends of biodiversity, as well as the success of conservation actions. The population of the Broad‐toothed Rats (Mastacomys fuscus) in the Barrington Tops National Park New South Wales, Australia has been monitored since 1999 via scat and live‐trapping surveys. We reviewed the methods used and analysed the data produced with the aim of describing patterns of population change over time using a range of outcome variables and identifying different climate correlates. A secondary aim was to explore the use of population statistics that account for imperfect detection by comparing naïve occupancy, with an index of relative abundance based on trap effort, the latency to find scats during scat surveys and an occupancy model based on trapping surveys. Neither of these three methods accounts for detectability variation. Naïve occupancy decreased slightly over time, while the relative abundance based on trap effort revealed no evidence of change. Additionally, naïve occupancy decreased with increasing temperature while temperature had no clear impact on relative abundance. Finally, precipitation had no impact on either naïve occupancy or relative abundance. We found no evidence of a relationship between the latency to find scats and the index of relative abundance, suggesting that one or neither is related to actual abundance. Finally, a multi‐season occupancy model found occupancy probability to be 0.78 ± 0.23 (standard error); detection probability as 0.51 ± 0.06; seasonal colonisation rate as 0.36 ± 0.13 and seasonal extinction rate at 0.44 ± 0.13. We conclude that despite significant investment in monitoring, this historical data set does not allow managers to ascertain whether population change has occurred and to identify potential drivers of change. Careful consideration of future methods, in particular, whether there is imperfect detection in scat surveys, will help to inform future monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human intervention through damming, diversion and extraction of water resources has created regulated dryland river systems. As a result, connectivity between river channels and floodplain wetlands has diminished. Wetland function is fundamentally linked to water availability: flooding exchanges water, nutrients, sediments and biota with the floodplain. Water allocation for environmental flows may mitigate wetland degradation following river regulation by improving hydrological connectivity between rivers and floodplain wetlands. We report the results (2014–15 to 2018–19) of a vegetation monitoring program in the Macquarie Marshes in north western New South Wales. As part of the long‐term program, we monitored semi‐permanent wetland (Water Couch (Paspalum distichum) grassland or sedgeland dominated) and River Red Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forest/woodland communities along with environmental and water resource availability predictors. During the five‐year period, we found linear and nonlinear responses of functional group abundance and species richness to the water year and to time since last inundation. We also found differences in species assemblages in response to the flow and flooding regime, particularly water year and inundation duration. These results indicated that wetlands continued to express dry and wet phase responses. We also observed a depressed response to the large 2016–17 flood event by a subset of semi‐permanent wetland sites that had not been inundated in 3 years, compared with sites that were more recently inundated. This result indicated that environmental water management, along with protection of natural inundation events, may improve the resilience of floodplain wetlands: increased hydrological connectivity may promote a stronger wetland response when floods occur. Our results indicate that inundation, in part comprised of managed environmental flows, is a primary driver of species assemblage and functional group representation in semi‐arid floodplain wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity loss is a major issue internationally and within Australia, with major restoration efforts to recover native biota focussing on agricultural landscapes. We introduce a free new webtool, BirdCast [https://sustfarm.shinyapps.io/BirdCast/], for estimating the primarily native bird biodiversity in Box Gum Grassy Woodlands within the NSW South Western Slopes bioregion. The tool has potential to demonstrate farm‐scale bird biodiversity dividends generated from past and future investments in vegetation management and restoration programmes. BirdCast incorporates 60 of the most commonly encountered bird species and includes visualisations, data export and summary reports for printing. It is underpinned by a large joint‐species distribution model fitted to 17 years of empirical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent landscape‐scale wildfires in eastern Australia have made apparent the need for a greater understanding of the flammability dynamics of forested ecosystems. Fire severity is a measure of the impact of a fire on vegetation, but little is known about the landscape‐scale response of the fire‐prone dry sclerophyll forests of eastern Australia to different levels of fire severity. Species in these forests have multiple responses to fire, which can be dependent on the fire severity. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of fire severity on the vegetation structure, and therefore flammability, of these forests. We addressed two hypotheses that 1) High severity fire would result in a denser understory than low severity fire after 5 years and that 2) High severity fire would reduce the vertical separation between understory and canopy after 5 years. Field surveys of 38 forest sites with differing fire severity but standardised time since fire and forest type, in Sydney region of New South Wales, Australia, were used to test these hypotheses. We found lower canopy cover and greater understory cover (0.5–4 m height) after high severity fire compared with sites which burnt at low severity. Vertical separation was less between the canopy and understory at sites after high severity fire than after low severity fire. The greater quantity of understory fuel and greater vertical continuity in fuel structure observed suggests a potential increase in forest flammability after high severity fire compared with lower severity fires in these forest types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Exotic perennial grasses (EPGs) are significant invaders of native grassy communities. We sought to determine how the profile of invading perennial grasses varies among different climatic regions and different grassy communities, to understand at which scale management is best undertaken. We investigated whether invader occurrence was related to specific plant traits. Location: New South Wales, Australia. Method: Field surveys of EPGs at 139 sites from nine grassy communities across four regions were assessed for variation in invasion profiles amongst regions and communities. We used a ranking of invasion risk based on plant characteristics to identify grasses likely to be more invasive and tested whether this ranking predicted the level of invasion in the survey. Results: Using multivariate analysis, we found that all communities were significantly invaded. These assemblages were distinct regionally, and for most plant communities. Five widespread invaders were established in all regions and communities. Invasion by pasture grasses (termed trade‐off species) was the most significant threat, coupled with capacity to develop long‐term seed banks and use allelopathy. Species with higher risk rankings were recorded in more sites, although a few grasses had much greater occurrences than their ranking predicted. Conclusions: Grassy communities across all regions were invaded by a suite of EPGs, some that have not been considered as problematic previously. Higher levels of invasion were associated with higher ranked species based on plant traits, indicating that our risk assessment is valuable as a management prioritization tool. Findings support community level management, although some species are important widespread invaders and could be managed at larger scales. Differences in species assemblages compared to nearby agricultural areas confirm different invasion pathways, with significant invasion from pasture grasses. Aided by the risk assessment tool, we propose that EPG management in native communities considers the climatic, community (including surrounding) and species level for prioritization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many farming landscapes, aquatic features, such as wetlands, creeks, and dams, provide water for stock and irrigation, while also acting as habitat for a range of plants and animals. Indeed, some species threatened by land‐use change may otherwise be considerably rarer—or even suffer extinction—in the absence of these habitats. Therefore, a critical issue for the maintenance of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes is the extent to which the management of aquatic systems can promote the integration of agricultural production and biodiversity conservation. We completed a cross‐sectional study in southern New South Wales (southeastern Australia) to quantify the efficacy of two concurrently implemented management practices—partial revegetation and control of livestock grazing—aimed at enhancing the vegetation structure, biodiversity value, and water quality of farm dams. We found that excluding livestock for even short periods resulted in increased vegetation cover. Relative to unenhanced dams (such as those that remained unfenced), those that had been enhanced for several years were characterized by reduced levels of turbidity, nutrients, and fecal contamination. Enhanced dams also supported increased richness and abundance of macroinvertebrates. In contrast, unenhanced control dams tended to have high abundance of a few macroinvertebrate taxa. Notably, differences remained between the macroinvertebrate assemblages of enhanced dams and nearby "natural" waterbodies that we monitored as reference sites. While the biodiversity value of semilotic, natural waterbodies in the region cannot be replicated by artificial lentic systems, we consider the extensive system of farm dams in the region to represent a novel ecosystem that may nonetheless support some native macroinvertebrates. Our results show that management interventions such as fencing and grazing control can improve water quality in farm dams, improve vegetation structure around farm dams, and support greater abundance and diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes-related foot is the largest burden to the health sector compared to other diabetes-related complications in Australia, including New South Wales (NSW). Understanding of social determinants of diabetes-related foot disease has not been definitive in Australian studies. This study aimed to investigate the social determinants of diabetes-related foot disease in NSW. Methodology: The first wave of the 45 and Up Study survey data was linked with NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection, Emergency Department Data Collection, and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data resulting in 28,210 individuals with diabetes aged 45 years and older in NSW, Australia. Three outcome variables were used: diabetes-related foot disease (DFD), diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), and diabetic foot infection (DFI). They were classified as binary, and survey logistic regression was used to determine the association between each outcome measure and associated factors after adjusting for sampling weights. Results: The prevalence of DFD, DFU and DFI were 10.8%, 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively, among people with diabetes. Multivariate analyses revealed that the common factors associated with DFD, DFU and DFI were older age (75 years or more), male, single status, background in English speaking countries, and coming from lower-income households (less than AUD 20,000 per year). Furthermore, common lifestyle and health factors associated with DFD, DFU, and DFI were low physical activity (< 150 min of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week), history of diabetes for over 15 years, and having cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Our study showed that about 1 in 10 adults with diabetes aged 45 years and older in NSW reported DFD. Interventions, including the provision of related health services aimed at reducing all forms of DFD in NSW, are recommended to target older individuals with a long history of diabetes, and coming from lower-income households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: To identify patterns in the temporal dynamics and spatial organization of kangaroo subpopulations that are commercially harvested, we fitted multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to time series of kangaroo abundance from the main harvest zones of eastern Australia (1990–2019 for New South Wales and 1984–2019 for Queensland). We found that the responses of most populations to process variation, that is variation due to environmental or demographic stochasticity were correlated and that populations responded synchronously to environmental changes. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the covariates lagged rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and harvest rate on kangaroo abundance. We found that lagged rainfall had a positive influence, SOI and harvest rate had negative influences but the influence of covariates was not consistent across species or between subpopulations. In terms of population spatial structure, the analysis identified two subpopulations of Red Kangaroo (Osphranter rufus) in New South Wales and four subpopulations of grey kangaroos (a combination of Eastern Grey Kangaroo (Macropus giganteus) and Western Grey Kangaroo (Macropus fuliginosus)), which appeared to be associated with a rainfall gradient from east‐west. In Queensland, separate subpopulations were identified in each of the three main harvest management zones for both Red Kangaroo and Eastern Grey Kangaroo. The implications of these results for the management of commercially harvested kangaroos are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indigenous knowledge emphasises the importance of cultural connections between humans and the biophysical world. In the face of threats to the maintenance and transfer of Indigenous knowledge, novel approaches such as seasonal calendars are emerging as tools to share knowledge and guide management of natural and cultural resources. The renewal of Indigenous cultural fire management in southeast Australia provided an opportunity to explore whether the co‐production of a fire and seasons calendar, using Western and Indigenous knowledges, can support cultural fire management. We present a case study of cross‐cultural collaboration between scientists and the Banbai Aboriginal rangers at Wattleridge Indigenous Protected Area, New South Wales. We reviewed literature from various disciplines (archaeological, ethnohistorical, Indigenous and ecological) and undertook participatory action research and interviews to collate relevant information. This was synthesised in Winba = Fire, the Banbai Fire and Seasons Calendar, which is used by the Banbai rangers to guide cultural burning, share cross‐cultural knowledge and increase awareness of Indigenous cultural fire management. The process of co‐producing knowledge, revitalising culture, caring for Country, working together and supporting self‐determination is relevant for many Indigenous communities around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Pre‐eclampsia (PE) causes substantial maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. In addition to the personal impact on women, children and their families, PE has a significant economic impact on our society. Recent research suggests that a first‐trimester multivariate model is highly predictive of preterm (< 37 weeks' gestation) PE and can be combined successfully with targeted prophylaxis (low‐dose aspirin), resulting in an 80% reduction in prevalence of disease. The aim of this study was to examine the potential health outcomes and cost implications following introduction of first‐trimester prediction and prevention of preterm PE within a public healthcare setting, compared with usual care, and to conduct a cost‐effectiveness analysis to inform health‐service decisions regarding implementation of such a program. Methods: A decision‐analytic model was used to compare usual care with the proposed first‐trimester screening intervention within the obstetric population (n = 6822) attending two public hospitals within a metropolitan district health service in New South Wales, Australia, between January 2015 and December 2016. The model, applied from early pregnancy, included exposure to a variety of healthcare professionals and addressed type of risk assessment (usual care or first‐trimester screening) and use of (compliance with) low‐dose aspirin prescribed prophylactically for prevention of PE. All pathways culminated in six possible health outcomes, ranging from no PE to maternal death. Results were presented as the number of cases of PE gained/avoided and the incremental increase/decrease in economic costs arising from the intervention compared with usual care. Significant assumptions were tested in sensitivity/uncertainty analyses. Results: The intervention produced, across all gestational ages, 31 fewer cases of PE and reduced aggregate economic health‐service costs by 1 431 186 Australian dollars over the 2‐year period. None of the tested iterations of uncertainty analyses reported additional cases of PE or higher economic costs. The new intervention based on first‐trimester screening dominated usual care. Conclusion: This cost‐effectiveness analysis demonstrated a reduction in prevalence of preterm PE and substantial cost savings associated with a population‐based program of first‐trimester prediction and prevention of PE, and supports implementation of such a policy. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NARCliM project contributes to the CORDEX initiative for Australasia. The first generation of NARCliM (N1.0) used CMIP3 global climate models (GCMs) and provided near and far future estimates of climate change across Australasia at 50‐km and southeast Australia at 10‐km resolution under a business‐as‐usual climate scenario. However, multiple sets of 20‐year periods in N1.0 did not permit analysis of long‐term, inter‐annual to decadal trends across the 21st century. Feedback on user needs for regional climate information revealed the desire for multiple emission scenarios and use of newer CMIP5 GCMs for dynamical downscaling. These limitations led to development of the second iteration of NARCliM, namely NARCliM1.5 (N1.5). The N1.5 downscaling exercise uses CMIP5 GCMs and is temporally expanded to cover 150 years (1950–2100) for two future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). N1.5 simulations remain at the 50‐km and 10 km resolutions over the same domains as N1.0, thus producing an expanded and complementary data set for regional climate change. N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitation, including improvements in overall bias. Conversely, N1.5 shows similar results to N1.0 for maximum and minimum temperature, with no substantial improvement in overall bias. N1.5 projections project a hotter and drier future relative to N1.0. The combined N1.0 and N1.5 ensemble provides a wider spread of future climates more representative of that found in the full CMIP5 ensemble. Together, N1.0 and N1.5 ensembles provide an improved, more comprehensive data set for studying climate change. Plain Language Summary: The second iteration of New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modeling (NARCliM) simulations (N1.5) are described, complementing original NARCliM (N1.0) simulations and expanding the ensemble to 24 members. N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 simulations in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitation. N1.5 projections add information to the NARCliM ensemble including the potential for hotter and drier futures than those projected in N1.0. Together, the N1.0 and N1.5 ensembles provide an improved, more comprehensive data set for studying climate change. The varying model performances identified here will help the development of the next generation of regional climate simulations over Australia. Key Points: The second iteration of NARCliM simulations (N1.5) are described complementing original NARCliM simulations (N1.0)N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 simulations in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitationN1.5 projections add information to the NARCliM ensemble including the potential for hotter and drier futures than those projected in N1.0 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine information and volatility linkages among NATIONAL, NSW, VIC and QLD housing markets in Australia using the novel rational expectations framework of financial contagion and a combination of robust econometric methods including the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), correlations and Generalised Impulse Response Method, etc. We find information linkages across markets are revealed in the correlations of their volatilities and correlations of the house price returns. Moreover, we find these volatilities reflect house price patterns of the most important four real estate economic cycles over the last two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Population‐based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15–89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985–2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age‐specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma. Results: Estimated 10‐year sex, age and spread‐specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty‐year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non‐cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher. Conclusion: Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: One tool for protecting quality use of medicines in hospitals is a drug and therapeutics committee (DTC) that oversees medicines availability. Pharmaceutical industry marketing to prescribers is associated with less appropriate prescribing and increased costs. There is little data on decision‐making practices of DTCs so it is unknown whether or how they might be vulnerable to pharmaceutical industry influence. This project explores DTC decision‐making with a focus on how pharmaceutical industry influence on access and use of medicines is identified and managed. Methods: We used a qualitative methodology with individual interviews of 29 participants who were current or recent members of public hospital DTCs across New South Wales, Australia. Participants included medical, pharmacy and nursing staff and 1 citizen. Committees were linked to specific hospitals or regions, and some were affiliated with paediatric, neonatal, rural or mental health services. Results: Drug committee processes for oversight of medicines in public hospitals are vulnerable to pharmaceutical industry influence at several points. Applications for formulary additions are sometimes initiated and completed by company representatives. Conflict of interest disclosures among applicants and committee members may be incomplete. In some institutions, medicines are available from pharmaceutical companies without committee review, including through free samples and industry‐supported medicines access programmes. Participants noticed the presence and impact of pharmaceutical company marketing activities to local clinicians, resulting in increased prescriber demand for products. Conclusion: Improved DTC practices and review of hospital policies concerning pharmaceutical marketing activities might preserve the independence of evidence‐based decision‐making for safe, cost‐effective prescribing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Woodland birds are a species assemblage of conservation concern, and their persistence in fragmented agricultural landscapes is dependent on both the preservation of existing woodland remnants and the implementation of restoration plantings. However, little is known about the habitat‐use and persistence of birds in fragmented agricultural landscapes. We present a detailed, population‐oriented study of woodland birds in temperate eucalypt woodland restoration plantings and remnant woodland patches in the South‐west Slopes bioregion of New South Wales, Australia. First, we undertook a 3‐yr mark–recapture project to assess annual survival and site fidelity in restoration plantings and woodland remnants. We supplemented our recapture efforts with resightings of color‐banded individuals. Second, we tracked individual birds of two species, Superb Fairywren (Malurus cyaneus) and Willie Wagtail (Rhipidura leucophrys), and documented snapshots of their home ranges and movement patterns during the breeding season. Annual survival in the woodland bird assemblage was lower than expected (51%). Home ranges of the Superb Fairywren were positively correlated with patch size, and were constrained by patch edges in linear sites. Superb Fairywrens and Willie Wagtails were more likely to travel longer distances between substrates while foraging in linear sites. Willie Wagtails engaged in significant gap‐crossing (up to 400 m) between adjacent habitat patches. Our findings indicate that (1) patch isolation and certain patch configurations place resident birds at an energetic disadvantage, and (2) in our study area, woodland bird populations are continuing to decline. We recommend landscape‐scale habitat restoration programs aim to address ongoing population declines. Studies such as ours conducted over longer time periods would provide a deeper understanding of habitat use and population processes of woodland birds in fragmented agricultural landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Exotic perennial grasses (EPGs) pose a significant risk to native communities globally. With over 2,200 species in Australia, understanding which characteristics enable high threat invasions, and comparing between functionally similar EPGs, can help prioritise species management. We developed a framework of risk and used the literature to rank 21 EPGs considered a threat to plant communities in New South Wales, while also evaluating the reliability of information currently available. Characteristics were scored within five broad categories that distinguish invasiveness: Arrival, Establishment, Persistence, Impact and Distribution. These included aspects of reproductive biology, competitive ability and environmental tolerance. The risk assessment was effective in assessing key characteristics of invasion. EPGs with an economic benefit (trade‐off species) were more likely to have reliable research and frequently ranked as high‐risk invaders in natural habitats due to the overlap of characteristics important in invasion with those considered important in agriculture. Lack of formal scientific research hindered assessment for some species, and some traits had been poorly assessed in the literature. High uncertainty was associated with key characteristics for Establishment, Persistence and Impact. Uncertainty in key characteristics revealed a need for improved integration of less formal research validated by more formal scientific research. This may lead to more informed decisions in the management of EPGs in native habitats and assist in early control of EPGs not yet assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Nest boxes have grown in popularity as a habitat management tool in Australia during the last decade. This management use remains contentious because some studies suggest nest boxes are ineffective. There are three recent contentions: (i) nest boxes mostly benefit common species, (ii) exotic species may be dominant users of nest boxes, and (iii) species of conservation concern use nest boxes infrequently. We address these contentions using data from 1865 nest boxes involving eight nest box designs. These nest boxes were installed predominantly <200 m from a road in association with highway duplication and re‐alignment across 16 projects in New South Wales. The Common Brushtail Possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the species of most relevance to contention 1. It used 9% of boxes overall including 26% of 'possum' designated boxes. The most frequent nest box users were small petaurid gliders (mostly Sugar Gliders, Petaurus breviceps) which used 63% of 'small glider' designated boxes. This nest box and another suited to the Sugar Glider comprised 40% of all boxes installed, so it is not surprising that this species might be a common user. Exotic species were uncommon users of the nest boxes enabling contention 2 to be rejected. Active hives of Feral Honeybees (Apis mellifera) occupied just 1% of boxes, and another 1% of boxes were used by introduced rodents and birds. The Squirrel Glider (Petaurus norfolcensis) is the species most relevant to contention 3. It was seen in 80 boxes across 11 projects, representing 7% of the three types most frequently used. These observations are not consistent with the third contention. Nest boxes can provide many important insights about the requirements and interactions of hollow‐dependent fauna. However, they are not intended as an alternative to retaining hollow‐bearing trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the role of punishment substitutability in the empirical estimation of the economic model of crime. Using a dynamic panel data model fitted to a panel of Local Government Areas in New South Wales, Australia, we evaluate the effects of financial penalties and imprisonment on the crime rate. Our results show that crime is clearly a dynamic phenomenon, and that failure to incorporate both financial penalties and imprisonment can lead to a misspecified model. Furthermore, our results vary significantly for different crime categories, highlighting the importance of analysing specific crime categories separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how the voltage control of a remote part of the utility gird can be improved using more sophisticated voltage control on wind-solar farms equipped with fast communication platforms. The idea is to make renewable plant the master voltage controller during large disturbance events in the grid. This is done by proposing an enhanced voltage droop control strategy based on instantaneous reactive power consumption by monitoring the virtual impedance of the point of connection using a new customised data class model of IEC 61850 communication protocol. The conventional centralised voltage droop control strategy and the proposed instantaneous direct voltage control method are both implemented on the White Rock Solar Wind Farm in NSW, Australia and their performances are compared using both MATLAB Simulink simulations under 5% voltage step disturbances, single-phase-to-ground and three-phase-to-ground faults as well as some tests conducted in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's economy, like most national economies, is made up of several regional sub‐economies. How these regional economies interact is not well understood but is relevant to macroeconomic policy setting. We outline and estimate a flexible Global Vector Autoregression model using quarterly data on house prices, output, unemployment and population for the eight Australian states and territories from 1986 to 2016. Using region‐to‐region impulse response functions from this model we quantify the influence of shocks in one region on another. Our results highlight the high degree of influence of New South Wales on other regions over and above its size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data on burden of severe influenza in children with a range of chronic lung diseases (CLDs) remain limited. Method: We performed a cohort study to estimate burden of influenza‐associated hospitalization in children with CLDs using population‐based linked data. The cohort comprised all children in New South Wales, Australia, born between 2001 and 2010 and was divided into five groups, children with: (a) severe asthma; (b) bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD); (c) cystic fibrosis (CF); (d) other congenital/chronic lung conditions; and (e) children without CLDs. Incidence rates and rate ratios for influenza‐associated hospitalization were calculated for 2001‐2011. Average cost/episode of hospitalization was estimated using public hospital cost weights. Results: Our cohort comprised 888 157 children; 11 058 (1.2%) had one of the CLDs. The adjusted incidence/1000 child‐years of influenza‐associated hospitalization in children with CLDs was 3.9 (95% CI: 2.6‐5.2) and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.5‐0.9) for children without. The rate ratio was 5.4 in children with CLDs compared to children without. The adjusted incidence/1000 child‐years (95% CI) in children with severe asthma was 1.1 (0.6‐1.6), with BPD was 6.0 (3.7‐8.3), with CF was 7.4 (2.6‐12.1), and with other congenital/chronic lung conditions was 6.9 (4.9‐8.9). The cost/episode (95% CI) of influenza‐associated hospitalization was AUD 19 704 (95% CI: 11 715‐27 693) for children with CLDs compared to 4557 (95% CI: 4129‐4984) for children without. Discussion: This large population‐based study suggests a significant healthcare burden associated with influenza in children with a range of CLDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Feral Horse (Equus caballus) impacts in northern Kosciuszko National Park, New South Wales, Australia are directly occurring in habitat of the nationally threatened Broad‐toothed Rat (Mastacomys fuscus). This species is endemic primarily to the mountain regions of south‐eastern mainland Australia and Tasmania, with a disjunct population at Barrington Tops. The Broad‐toothed Rat's preferred habitat is being increasingly impacted by browsing and trampling associated with the expansion of feral horse populations. This study surveyed 180 sites supporting preferred habitat for this species to determine Broad‐toothed Rat presence and relative abundance in relation to the level of feral horse impacts within the reserve. There was a significant negative relationship between feral horse impacts and both Broad‐toothed Rat presence and abundance. No scats were identified at localities where feral horse impacts were severe, and at moderate horse impact sites, there was a proportion (34%) without scats found. Locations with low horse impacts had little impact on Broad‐toothed Rat occurrence. As feral horse populations increase, Broad‐toothed Rat populations may be further impacted. Such impacts will be due to the loss of vegetation cover from feral horse trampling and grazing, making animals more vulnerable to predation by predators or impacting on their ability to disperse to more suitable habitat. Habitat remnants and vegetation corridors along drainage lines require protection from feral horses to prevent localized extinctions of Broad‐toothed Rat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aboriginal people, and particularly those in rural areas, continue to suffer very high levels of dental disease despite significant reductions in the wider Australian population in the past 30 years. Until recently, there has been a shortage of oral health clinicians and the majority have provided care in major cities. The NSW Government funded various models of care for rural and regional areas and vulnerable population groups including Aboriginal people. This study utilizes a comparative retrospective analysis to compare two models of oral health care for Aboriginal people including those living in rural NSW to inform future policy decisions. Methods: Two models (Model A - Fly in Fly out and Model B - Collective impact) of public oral health care for Aboriginal patients in NSW were examined using publicly available descriptive information. Two years of funding and Dental Weighted Activity Units (DWAUs) data were analysed for the two different models and regression analysis was used to compare the trends of monthly time series of DWAUs. Conclusions: Based on the standardized national weighted pricing for public dentistry, model B offers significantly more services for less financial resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence supporting the effects of mergers in healthcare markets on quality is mixed. In this study we exploit a government policy in NSW that imposed mergers on area health services ( AHSs) to evaluate the effects of the merger on patient waiting times, an indicator of quality. We focus on the specific question of whether the merger had a larger impact on worse-performing AHSs. Our results show heterogeneous impacts, reducing waiting times for relatively urgent public patients but further delaying non-urgent patients. In addition, we find the merger reduced the waiting time gap between public and private patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]