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Climatic changes can cause unpredictability in flood regimes that traditional flood risk management (FRM) approaches may struggle with. Therefore, flood resilience is seen as a supplementation to these approaches, putting a larger emphasis on flood acceptance and minimising consequences. An (emergent) group contributing towards flood resilience is civil society. This paper examines how civil society contributions can be furthered and guided in the Netherlands as well as exploring potential limitations in doing so. To achieve this, England is used as a good practice example due to a more developed and defined role for civil society being present here. Data were collected on both actual (England and the Netherlands) and potential (The Netherlands) civil society contributions. These were compared to identify potential avenues for Dutch civil society contributions to flood resilience that can be further investigated. The research shows that the most promising avenues are improving advocacy from citizens, improving local flood awareness and developing relationships between FRM authorities and existing citizen groups that can be harnessed and mobilised to support flood resilience. Additionally, the research also provides insights into potential limitations for transferring resilience approaches from one context to another beyond the cases discussed in this publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global increase in extreme weather events in recent years has spurred political scientists to examine the potential political effects of such phenomena. This paper explores effect of flooding on electoral outcomes and offers evidence that the impact of adverse events varies with changes in political context. Using a difference‐in‐differences identification strategy to analyse three consecutive general elections in the United Kingdom (2015, 2017 and 2019), the paper finds variability in partisan electoral benefit from one election to the next that calls into question the blind retrospection and rally‐round‐the‐leader explanations which are often advanced to account for electoral reactions to natural disasters. Instead, changing party positions on environmental issues appear to account more convincingly for shifts in electoral support in response to flooding. This suggests that parties can derive benefit from, or be punished for, the positions they take on environmental issues when extreme weather events affect citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the challenging – and frightening – times in which we now live, education is seen as playing a key role in making change for the better. However, the Department for Education's (2022) strategy on education for sustainability and climate change, applicable to schools in England, is lacking in many areas and fails to address students', teachers', and teacher educators' priorities. Crucially, the environment and climate emergency greatly concerns many children and young people and these issues should be addressed across the whole curriculum, not just in geography and science. Further, there needs to be more focus on emotions rather than facts, wellbeing rather than the economy. So, the question is: How can we 'green' art, craft and design education to ensure it is both effective and affective? Art can change the world because it is 'homeless, endless, and edgeless' – this sounds exciting but does not aid teachers in curriculum design. In this paper I will share an emergent manifesto for an environmentally responsible art, craft and design (ACD) curriculum... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meat production and consumption are major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and other aspects of environmental degradation. It is the aim of this paper to explore red meat in the configuration of main meals eaten out in England across types and styles of cuisine, and to consider the implications for transition towards less resource intensive ways of eating in the future. We show that the odds ratio of eating a dish without red meat is significantly lower in North American/European and Near/Middle Eastern cuisines compared with East Asian (with no difference between South and East Asian), that women are more likely than men to eat fish and poultry (with no gender differences in vegetarian dishes), that Prestonians are the least likely to select a vegetarian dish, compared with people in London and Bristol, and that the odds of a vegetarian dish compared with red meat is higher amongst managerial workers compared with the routine manual workers (with no other statistically significant class differences). We suggest the term "translated cuisine" to refer cuisines that travel and become incorporated into the palate of the new food culture, and discuss how this could play a role in transitions towards less meat‐centred patterns of food consumption in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and water scarcity pose a risk to the economy, particularly sectors where water is a crucial input to the production process. This paper describes integrated simulations of water shortages from a dynamic national water resource systems model with a static economic input‐output (I‐O) model to assess total drought risk to the economy. To quantify the economic risks of drought and water scarcity, the analysis: (a) integrates a large ensemble of simulated meteorological droughts, propagated through a national hydrological model and water resource systems model to simulate water availability from reservoirs and groundwater; (b) assesses implications of restrictions on water availability for multiple water user categories, representing natural and human contributions to water scarcity; (c) investigates how water shortages propagate into economy‐wide direct and indirect impacts. The study focuses on England and Wales where the water supply system is considered under strain, with growing recognition of the economic risk of prolonged and widespread shortages. The direct Expected Annual Loss (EAL) to water users, averaged over an ensemble equivalent to 2800 years of synthetic daily weather, is estimated to be £11.7 million in the 2011 base‐year. Accounting for indirect economic losses results in a total EAL of £30.2 million in 2011. The most severe event simulated results in a total loss of £1.4 billion in 2011, equivalent to 0.11% of GVA. The analysis provides a framework to assess what the economically efficient level of system reliability should be, and for deciding upon appropriate water management regulations and strategic investments. Key Points: Simulated water availability from a national water resource system model are integrated with a macroeconomic model to assess drought riskThe use of a large ensemble of synthetic drought simulations supports the risk‐based analysis of direct and indirect economic lossesThe method supports national economic assessment of the implications of climate change and different water management strategies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilient water supplies in England need to be secured in the face of challenges of population growth, climate change and environmental sustainability. We propose a blueprint for water resources planning that uses system simulation modelling to estimate the frequency, duration and severity of water shortages at present and in the context of future plans and scenarios. We use multiobjective optimisation tools to explore trade‐offs between these risk metrics and cost of alternative plans, and we use sensitivity analysis to identify plans that robustly achieve targets for tolerable risk, alongside other performance objectives. The results of a case study in the Thames basin demonstrate that the proposed methodology is feasible given commonly available data sets and models. The proposed method provides evidence with which to develop water resource management plans that demonstrably balance the risks of water shortages, costs to water users and environmental constraints in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling the role of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystem functioning is paramount to protect water quality in lake catchments worldwide. For more effective management, however, we need to determine whether these two forcing factors interact at different spatial and temporal scales., This study compares centennial-scale archival data and lake sediment records of eutrophication from Blelham Tarn and previously published data from Lake Windermere's North Basin in the English Lake District. We aimed to quantify how lake morphometry, catchment characteristics and landscape position influence the relationship between climate, local land use and algal community change., Redundancy analysis revealed that increases in cyanobacterial pigments and stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon in sediments of Blelham Tarn from the 1970s onwards correlate strongly with rising densities of sheep and cattle in the catchment. Concomitant installation of piped water and sewage processing facilities appeared to lead to the expansion of filamentous cyanobacteria. In contrast, elevated fossil pigments from siliceous algae after 1990 were related inversely to winter precipitation, suggesting seasonal changes in hydraulic flushing also influenced the algal community response to centennial-scale fertilisation., Abundance of vernal algae increased synchronously in Blelham Tarn and Lake Windermere's North Basin after regional agricultural intensification in the mid-nineteenth century. In contrast, differences in timing of wastewater disposal and treatment at each site led to asynchronous changes in summer taxa such as filamentous cyanobacteria., This study highlights that lake catchments can act as local filters to regional climate change, both due to differences in localised land-use and intrinsic hydrological features (e.g. catchment:lake area, flushing rate). Further, this paper highlights the ability of palaeolimnology to aid identification of significant nutrient sources over different spatial scales for effective catchment water management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biodiversity and climate crises demand ambitious policies lowering the environmental impacts of farming. Most current interventions incentivise so‐called land‐sharing approaches to address the widespread trade‐off between farm yields and on‐farm environmental outcomes by compensating farmers who adopt yield‐reducing interventions that encourage wildlife or reduce net emissions within farmed land.Here, we present the first quantification of the likely costs to taxpayers of land sharing compared with land sparing, in which large areas are removed from production altogether because of high‐yielding practices elsewhere in the landscape. Focusing on arable production in the United Kingdom, we used a choice experiment to explore farmer preferences and estimated the overall costs of contrasting agri‐environment schemes that delivered increased populations of three well‐studied farmland birds and reduced net carbon emissions in England. We included capital, administration and monitoring costs, and lost food production.Sparing delivered our target biodiversity and carbon emission outcomes at 79% of the food production cost and 48% of the taxpayer cost of sharing. The difference in subsidy payments required by farmers roughly tracked lost food production but other costs favoured sparing even more strongly.The cost‐related merits of sparing would probably increase further in studies incorporating (1) the many species and ecosystem services not deliverable on farmland, (2) the costs of food imports to compensate domestic lost production and (3) countries without as long and extensive a history of agriculture as the United Kingdom.Our results suggest that, for at least some conservation outcomes, continuing a land‐sharing approach in countries such as the United Kingdom is not only an inefficient use of government funds but also undermines conservation and food security in food‐exporting countries which bear the burden of compensating domestic production forgone in the name of conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro‐Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Pressurised metered‐dose inhalers (MDIs) have a much higher carbon footprint than dry powder inhalers (DPIs). We aimed to describe variations of inhaler options in local adult asthma prescribing guidance. Methods: We reviewed local clinical commissioning group (CCG) adult asthma prescribing guidance for primary care in England in 2019 and recorded DPI and MDI inclusion. The relationship to prescribing data from OpenPrescribing.net was examined. Results: In total, 58 unique guidance documents were analysed covering 144 out of 191 CCGs in England. Only 3% of CCG guidelines expressed an overall preference for DPIs, while 12% explicitly preferred MDIs. The inclusion of DPIs first‐line was 77% for short‐acting β‐agonists, 78% for low‐dose inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) inhalers and 90–96% for combination long‐acting β‐agonist/ICS inhalers. MDIs were included first‐line in 98–100% of these classes. In 26% of CCGs, there was no first‐line DPI option for at least 1 asthma management step. Ten percent of CCGs had no DPI included first‐line for any of the 5 classes examined. Many CCGs recommended higher carbon footprint options; Ventolin MDI (25.6%), inhalers containing HFA227ea (57.9%) and ICS regimes recommending 2 puffs of a lower dose over 1 puff of higher dose (94.2%). MDIs were prescribed more in CCGs that recommended them. Conclusion: Before the COVID pandemic, there was substantial variation between CCGs in adult asthma prescribing guidance regarding higher and lower carbon footprint options. There may still be scope to amend local guidance to improve clinical and environmental outcomes. This study provides a method and baseline for further investigation of this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flood maps covering the whole European continent have become available in recent years. However, their ability to complement or replace high‐resolution local flood maps was not investigated so far. In this paper we compare pan‐European estimates of extreme sea levels and coastal flood extents at given return periods with observations and high‐resolution reference maps. The analysis is done for two pan‐European assessments and one global study. We find that whereas the models have good accuracy in estimating storm surge heights, large disparities exist between the large‐scale flood maps and four local maps of flood extents from England, the Netherlands, Poland, and France. Moreover, the accuracy of the underlying digital elevation model and assumptions about flood protection existing in a given area influence significantly the results. In addition, the first pan‐European projection of temporal trends in the size of flood zones is presented, with and without assuming flood protection levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article draws on original empirical research to explore the rise and fall of innocence projects across England and Wales. Innocence projects are university‐based projects which seek to educate students, to assist the wrongly convicted and to contribute to research and reform within criminal justice. Thirty‐six projects were established between 2004 and 2014 under Innocence Network UK, but following the network's closure, projects appear to be gradually disappearing. Drawing on empirical evidence from key actors, this article argues that the decline of innocence projects resulted from both emerging tensions within the innocence project movement itself and through the external constraints of operating within a restrictive criminal appeal system. It will conclude by rethinking how surviving projects might play a valuable role in addressing miscarriages of justice in the current climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size is a key parameter of organism fitness. While the impact of climate change on body size has received increasing attention, the long‐term consequences of landscape fragmentation are still poorly known. These two major global threats may potentially induce opposite trends: the decrease of body size in warmer environments (e.g. individuals developing faster) or the selection of larger individuals in fragmented habitats (e.g. large individuals more capable of reaching distant patches). We assessed the relationship between temperature and landscape fragmentation with mean body size during the last century, within four European regions (Austria, Belgium, England and above the Arctic circle in Scandinavia) and among queens of five bumblebee species. At the regional scale, we first analysed the variation over time of body size and the two hypothesised drivers, temperature and landscape fragmentation. Then, at the local landscape scale, we tested whether body size varied according to these drivers irrespective of the region. At the regional level, we observed a statistically clear increase of queen body size corresponding to an increase of landscape fragmentation (i.e. in Belgium and England). There was no increase of size when fragmentation did not increase (i.e. in Austria and above the Arctic Circle). Temperature also increased through time in all regions. At the local landscape scale, we found that all species were impacted by changes in both climate and landscape fragmentation but show different trends. The body size of the two largest species significantly increased at landscape level with higher fragmentation while body size of the two smallest species decreased with higher fragmentation. We highlight that, in a context of global changes, landscape fragmentation can also be a major driver of body size clines. Depending on the dispersal abilities of species, larger species could be positively selected for and overcome landscape fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correlations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with climate variables in continental Europe are strong but weak over Britain. This article presents evidence that interannual variations of British climate are explained more successfully by variations of the Icelandic Low (IL), the northern component of the NAO. The IL changes continuously in intensity as well as position, and these variations are not represented in the NAO. Monthly values of intensity and latitude and longitude positions for the IL are estimated from gridded sea level pressure data. These are used to analyse their impact on interannual variations of winter precipitation and temperature over Britain for the period 1981–2014. It is found that the primary influence on the interannual variations of winter precipitation over Britain are the pressure and the longitude position of the IL. When the IL is deeper or situated east of its mean location, there is above normal precipitation over Britain. The primary influence on air temperature is the meridional migration of the IL; it is warmer when the IL is situated north of its mean position. The impact of the IL on precipitation and air temperature are evaluated also for Scotland, North England and South England separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location: Europe. Taxon: Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods: We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results: We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, Hd = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (Hd = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (<1,000 meters above sea level) equating to 1 to 12 unique haplotypes being at risk under climate scenarios projecting 1°C and 2–3°C increases respectfully in global temperature by 2070. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that historical range expansion and retraction processes by a cold‐adapted mountain species caused diversification between populations, resulting in unique genetic diversity which may be at risk if distributions of cold‐adapted species shrink in future. Assisted colonizations of individuals from at‐risk populations into climatically suitable unoccupied habitat might help conserve unique genetic diversity, and translocations into remaining populations might increase their genetic diversity and hence their ability to adapt to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread declines in farmland biodiversity have led to state‐funded schemes which take land out of production to create (semi‐)natural habitats for biodiversity (e.g. EU agri‐environment schemes; US Conservation Reserve Program). Common features of such schemes are grassland strips at the edges of agricultural fields, and we examine potential co‐benefits of these biodiversity set‐asides for contributing to grassland connectivity. Although set‐aside strips had negligible impact on landscape‐scale species persistence (using metapopulation models parameterized for flying insects run on 267 landscapes of ~30 000 ha across England), they nonetheless improved connectivity in 74% (198/267) of landscapes (comparing landscapes with and without set‐asides), as shown by range expansion rates increasing by up to 100%. Benefits of set‐aside strips varied according to species type (high/low dispersal, high/low population density), but had little benefit for species with low dispersal and small population sizes, which generally failed to expand. High dispersal/high density species were already successful expanders regardless of set‐asides (> 75% of simulations were successful without set‐asides) although expansion rates were still improved when set‐asides were added. Whilst alternative strategies for placement of set‐aside strips (more/less aggregated), revealed no consensus 'better' strategy across species types, set‐aside benefits were generally greatest in landscapes with intermediate availability of semi‐natural grassland (0.5‐4% cover). We conclude that small‐scale set‐asides have the potential to improve connectivity, which we expect to help some species track climate change, and connect habitat patches within existing climate space for others. However, set‐asides are unlikely to benefit low dispersal species which are probably at greatest risk from agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected future climatic extremes such as heatwaves and droughts are expected to have major impacts on emissions and concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (bVOCs) with potential implications for air quality, climate and human health. While the effects of changing temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on the synthesis and emission of isoprene, the most abundant of these bVOCs, are well known, the role of other environmental factors such as soil moisture stress are not fully understood and are therefore poorly represented in land surface models. As part of the Wytham Isoprene iDirac Oak Tree Measurements campaign, continuous measurements of isoprene mixing ratio were made throughout the summer of 2018 in Wytham Woods, a mixed deciduous woodland in southern England. During this time, the United Kingdom experienced a prolonged heatwave and drought, and isoprene mixing ratios were observed to increase by more than 400% at Wytham Woods under these conditions. We applied the state‐of‐the‐art FORest Canopy‐Atmosphere Transfer canopy exchange model to investigate the processes leading to these elevated concentrations. We found that although current isoprene emissions algorithms reproduced observed mixing ratios in the canopy before and after the heatwave, the model underestimated observations by ~40% during the heatwave–drought period implying that models may substantially underestimate the release of isoprene to the atmosphere in future cases of mild or moderate drought. Stress‐induced emissions of isoprene based on leaf temperature and soil water content (SWC) were incorporated into current emissions algorithms leading to significant improvements in model output. A combination of SWC, leaf temperature and rewetting emission bursts provided the best model‐measurement fit with a 50% improvement compared to the baseline model. Our results highlight the need for more long‐term ecosystem‐scale observations to enable improved model representation of atmosphere–biosphere interactions in a changing global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources planning and management by water utilities have traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates the analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modeling system that combines hydrological modeling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth, and land‐use change on the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment in the south of England. The results show that alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the south of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represent a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognize their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies. Key Points: Proposes an integrated water quality‐quantity model,including abstraction rules and reservoir water quality,for PWS reliability assessmentAssesses the impact of land‐use change, and potential mitigations, on water supply reliabilityApplies a novel climate dataset to explore hydrological variability and change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly observations are used to study the relationship between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26° N and sea level (ζ) on the New England coast (northeastern United States) over nonseasonal timescales during 2004–2017. Variability in ζ is anticorrelated with AMOC on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. This anticorrelation reflects the stronger underlying antiphase relationship between ageostrophic Ekman‐related AMOC transports due to local zonal winds across 26° N and ζ changes arising from local wind and pressure forcing along the coast. These distinct local atmospheric variations across 26° N and along coastal New England are temporally correlated with one another on account of large‐scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Geostrophic AMOC contributions from the Gulf Stream through the Florida Straits and upper‐mid‐ocean transport across the basin are together uncorrelated with ζ. This interpretation contrasts with past studies that understood ζ and AMOC as being in geostrophic balance with one another. Key Points: The AMOC at 26° N and New England coastal sea level are anticorrelated across intraseasonal and interannual timescales during 2004–2017This anticorrelation reflects distinct local oceanic responses to temporally correlated, spatially disparate atmospheric forcing mechanismsThe relevant local atmospheric forcing is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and West Atlantic Index [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstractions for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydrometeorological variability is considered within a synthetic data set of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977–2004) and for projections for near future (2022–2049) and far future (2072–2099). The probability, magnitude, and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, more frequent, and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations. Plain Language Summary: Droughts are expected to become more common in many regions worldwide due to climate change. During droughts events, environmental regulators can impose water abstraction restrictions for irrigation to protect drinking water supplies and meet the minimum water requirements for the natural environment. This study provides a novel approach to evaluate the risk of economic losses in irrigated agriculture due to water abstraction restrictions implemented during current and future drought conditions under climate change, using England and Wales as a case study. A data set of modeled daily rainfall and river flow for a baseline period (1977–2004) and for near future (2022–2049) and far future (2072–2099) is used. Decisions regarding when to implement restrictions in 129 catchments are made considering a set of rainfall and river flow thresholds, with the associated economic losses calculated by crop type. Results show that in the future water abstraction restrictions for irrigation will become more severe, more frequent, and longer. The highest economic losses will affect the most drought‐sensitive crops, which are located in water stressed catchments and have a high financial value in the food market. This research highlights the importance of a collaborative work between environmental regulators and irrigators to manage scarce water resources and balance environmental and economic considerations under drought. Key Points: A novel probabilistic approach of the risk of economic losses in irrigated agriculture due to climate change and drought management is shownFuture water restrictions on irrigation in England and Wales are projected to increase in duration, severity, and frequencyHydroclimatic variability, drought management, and the distribution and sensitivity of crops to water stress shape the economic impacts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of the most sensitive hydrological regions to a changing climate is essential to target adaptive management strategies. This study presents a quantitative assessment of spatial patterns, inter-annual variability and climatic sensitivity of the shape (form) and magnitude (size) of annual river/stream water temperature regimes across England and Wales. Classification of long-term average (1989-2006) annual river (air) temperature regime dynamics at 88 (38) stations within England and Wales identified spatially differentiable regions. Emergent river temperature regions were used to structure detailed hydroclimatological analyses of a subset of 38 paired river and air temperature stations. The shape and magnitude of air and water temperature regimes were classified for individual station-years; and a sensitivity index ( SI, based on conditional probability) was used to quantify the strength of associations between river and air temperature regimes. The nature and strength of air-river temperature regime links differed between regions. River basin properties considered to be static over the timescale of the study were used to infer modification of air-river temperature links by basin hydrological processes. The strongest links were observed in regions where groundwater contributions to runoff (estimated by basin permeability) were smallest and water exposure time to the atmosphere (estimated by basin area) was greatest. These findings provide a new large-scale perspective on the hydroclimatological controls driving river thermal dynamics and, thus, yield a scientific basis for informed management and regulatory decisions concerning river temperature within England and Wales. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Environment Agency in England is investing £2.5 billion with the aim of reducing flood risk to at least 300,000 homes by 2020/21. Several of the schemes being considered are on rivers that have experienced an upsurge of flooding over recent years. Decisions on whether to invest and how high to build are usually made on the basis of stationary methods of flood frequency analysis that assume the probability of flood flows is unchanging over time. Following successive severe floods in Cumbria, trend tests and non‐stationary flood frequency analysis techniques have been applied. These allow parameters of the frequency distribution to change over time or with some other covariate. The resulting estimates of flow, for the present day, were up to 55% higher than the stationary estimates at river gauges in north‐west England. The results have been incorporated into the scheme appraisal process. A national analysis indicates that there is evidence of upward trends in peak flows at nearly a quarter of river flow gauges across Great Britain. Many rivers show an abrupt increase in flood flows in the late 1990s. Trends tend to occur in upland areas but they are also seen on some rivers across south‐east England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]