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Background: Patients with stable coronary heart disease (CHD) have widely varying prognoses and treatment options. Validated models for risk stratification of patients with CHD are needed. We sought to evaluate traditional and novel risk factors as predictors of secondary cardiovascular (CV) events, and to develop a prediction model that could be used to risk stratify patients with stable CHD., Methods and Results: We used independent derivation (912 participants in the Heart and Soul Study) and validation (2876 participants in the PEACE trial) cohorts of patients with stable CHD to develop a risk prediction model using Cox proportional hazards models. The outcome was CV events, defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death. The annual rate of CV events was 3.4% in the derivation cohort and 2.2% in the validation cohort. With the exception of smoking, traditional risk factors (including age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes) did not emerge as the top predictors of secondary CV events. The top 4 predictors of secondary events were the following: N-terminal pro-type brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, urinary albumin:creatinine ratio, and current smoking. The 5-year C-index for this 4-predictor model was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.65 in the validation cohort. As compared with variables in the Framingham secondary events model, the Heart and Soul risk model resulted in net reclassification improvement of 0.47 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.73) in the derivation cohort and 0.18 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.40) in the validation cohort., Conclusions: Novel risk factors are superior to traditional risk factors for predicting 5-year risk of secondary events in patients with stable CHD., (© 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

Background While changes in the left ventricular end-diastolic pressure-volume relationship ( LV- EDPVR) can be estimated using echocardiography, their prognostic utility in stable coronary artery disease ( CAD) is unknown. Methods Using echo-estimated LV end-diastolic volume index and diastolic function category, the relative position of the LV- EDPVR was defined in 901 participants with stable CAD as: (1) left-shifted, (2) right-shifted, or (3) intermediate. We then evaluated the association of LV- EDPVR position relative to the intermediate category with time to hospitalization for heart failure ( HF) or cardiovascular ( CV) death using Cox proportional hazards models. Results During 7.0 ± 3.1 years of follow-up, there were 207 admissions for HF or CV deaths. Both leftward and rightward shifts of LV- EDPVR were associated with a significantly higher risk of HF or CV death ( HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.15-2.62 and HR 6.75, 95% CI 4.02-11.31, respectively). In multivariable-adjusted models, these associations were attenuated but remained significant ( HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.08-2.55 for left-shifted and HR 4.19, 95% CI 2.32-7.55 for right-shifted). The association of LV- EDPVR with HF or CV death was no longer significant after inclusion of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level as a covariate. Conclusions In stable CAD, echo-estimated leftward and rightward shifts in the LV- EDPVR are associated with HF and CV death. The loss of these associations after adjustment for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level suggests that echo-estimated LV- EDPVR captures changes in LV filling pressure at any given LV end-diastolic volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]