1. Estimation and Optimal Control of the Multiscale Dynamics of Covid-19: A Case Study From Cameroon
- Author
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Vivient Corneille Kamla, Duplex Elvis Houpa-Danga, Jean-Claude Kamgang, Stéphane Yanick Tchoumi, Yannick Kouakep-Tchaptchie, Samuel Bowong-Tsakou, David Békollé, and David Jaurès Fotsa-Mbogne
- Subjects
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Estimation of parameter ,49J15 ,49M37 ,Population ,Aerospace Engineering ,Ocean Engineering ,34D05 ,Time of extinction ,Upper and lower bounds ,Stability (probability) ,34D20 ,34D23 ,34D45 ,Combinatorics ,Convergence (routing) ,92D30 ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,education ,49K40 ,Mathematics ,education.field_of_study ,Original Paper ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Applied Mathematics ,Mechanical Engineering ,Multi-scale modeling ,Order (ring theory) ,Stability analysis ,90C31 ,Optimal control ,92C60 ,Control and Systems Engineering ,Sensitivity analysis - Abstract
This work aims at a better understanding and the optimal control of the spread of the new severe acute respiratory corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A multi-scale model giving insights on the virus population dynamics, the transmission process and the infection mechanism is proposed first. Indeed, there are human to human virus transmission, human to environment virus transmission, environment to human virus transmission and self-infection by susceptible individuals. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is shown when a given threshold \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {\mathcal {T}}_{0} $$\end{document}T0 is less or equal to 1 and the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathcal {R}}_{0} $$\end{document}R0 is calculated. A convergence index \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {\mathcal {T}}_{1} $$\end{document}T1 is also defined in order to estimate the speed at which the disease extincts and an upper bound to the time of infectious extinction is given. The existence of the endemic equilibrium is conditional and its description is provided. Using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient with a three levels fractional experimental design, the sensitivity of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathcal {R}}_{0} $$\end{document}R0, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {\mathcal {T}}_{0} $$\end{document}T0 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {\mathcal {T}}_{1}$$\end{document}T1 to control parameters is evaluated. Following this study, the most significant parameter is the probability of wearing mask followed by the probability of mobility and the disinfection rate. According to a functional cost taking into account economic impacts of SARS-CoV-2, optimal fighting strategies are determined and discussed. The study is applied to real and available data from Cameroon with a model fitting. After several simulations, social distancing and the disinfection frequency appear as the main elements of the optimal control strategy against SARS-CoV-2.
- Published
- 2021