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Indoor environmental parameters are closely related to the energy consumption and indoor thermal comfort of office buildings. Predicting these parameters, especially indoor temperature, can contribute to the management of energy consumption and thermal comfort levels in office buildings. An accurate indoor temperature prediction model is the basis for implementing this process. To this end, this paper first discusses the input and output parameters of the model, and then it compares the prediction effects of mainstream prediction model algorithms based on data mining under the same data conditions. The superiority of the XGBoost integrated learning algorithm is verified, and a further XGBoost-based indoor temperature online prediction method is designed. The effectiveness of the method is validated using actual data from a commercial office building in Haidian District, Beijing. Finally, optimization methods for the prediction method are discussed with regard to the scheduler mechanism proposed in this paper. Overall, this work can assist building operators in optimizing HVAC equipment running strategies, thus improving the indoor thermal comfort and energy efficiency of the building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid simulation of land subsidence can provide an effective means of facilitating its management and control. This paper innovatively introduced a back-propagation (BP) neural network subsidence simulation model which was optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), hereinafter referred to as the SSA-BP model, to simulate land subsidence in Tongzhou District, Beijing. First, based on the time series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) monitoring, different technologies such as spatial analysis, Google Earth Engine (GEE), and machine learning were utilized together with a variety of multi-source spatial data, including groundwater level, compressible layer thickness, Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) nighttime light images, and the OpenStreetMap (OSM) road distribution. Furthermore, we determined the optimal grid scale for land subsidence research and worked out a multifactor-driven SSA-BP land subsidence simulation model for which sensitivity analysis was performed with great care. Main conclusions: (1) From November 2010 to January 2020, the average annual surface displacement rate in Beijing's subcentre, Tongzhou, ranged from −133.9 to +3.9 mm/year. (2) Our SSA-BP land subsidence simulation model allows for a relatively high overall accuracy. The average root mean square error (RMSE) is 5.00 mm/year, the average mean absolute error (MAE) is 3.80 mm/year, and the average coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.83. (3) Sensitivity analysis shows that the SSA-BP model driven by multiple factors has a far better simulation performance than the model driven by any single weighting factor, and displays the highest sensitivity to the groundwater level factor among all the weighting factors. In terms of subdividing the study area, our SSA-BP land subsidence model runs with multifunctional zones displayed a higher accuracy than that without. This paper made use of a machine learning model to simulate land subsidence in Beijing's Tongzhou District and explored the sensitivity of different factors to land subsidence, which is helpful for its scientific prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issues of housing and traffic in China's mega cities have become increasingly pressing problems, particularly for middle/low-income tenant workers. These tenants are from less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, which has resulted in a significant geographical separation between their workplace and their residence. Although a large number of studies have confirmed that built environment factors have a solid impact on residents' commuting distance, few studies have investigated the mechanism underlying the nonlinear influence on middle/low-income tenants. This paper aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the key factors and nonlinear influencing mechanism of the built environment on middle/low-income tenant workers' commuting distance by establishing a gradient-boosting decision tree model, using Beijing as an empirical case. The paper reveals three primary findings: (1) An important nonlinear relationship between the surrounding built environment and peoples' jobs–housing spatial proximity can be observed for those middle/low-income tenant workers who use slow and public modes of commuting. Specifically, the density of public transport stations, road networks, and workplaces, and the land use mix play a dominant role. (2) A limited effect of built environment factors can be found for the same group of tenant workers who choose cars as their mode of commuting. (3) The differences in self-selected commuting modes have a significant mediating effect on the relationship between the built environment and jobs–housing situation among middle/low-income tenant workers. Given this, effective policy guidance for residents' travel modes is necessary to optimize the built environment indicators to achieve the best effect. In addition, we should consider giving priority to the matching indicators such as land use mix and resident population density. Another possibility is to strengthen the connection to the public transport stations, which in turn can optimize the walkability in residential environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetable sector is a vital pillar of society and an indispensable part of the national economic structure. As a significant segment of the agricultural market, accurately forecasting vegetable prices holds significant importance. Vegetable market pricing is subject to a myriad of complex influences, resulting in nonlinear patterns that conventional time series methodologies often struggle to decode. In this paper, we exploit the average daily price data of six distinct types of vegetables sourced from seven key wholesale markets in Beijing, spanning from 2009 to 2023. Upon training an LSTM model, we discovered that it exhibited exceptional performance on the test dataset. Demonstrating robust predictive performance across various vegetable categories, the LSTM model shows commendable generalization abilities. Moreover, LSTM model has a higher accuracy compared to several machine learning methods, including CNN-based time series forecasting approaches. With R2 score of 0.958 and MAE of 0.143, our LSTM model registers an enhancement of over 5% in forecast accuracy relative to conventional machine learning counterparts. Therefore, by predicting vegetable prices for the upcoming week, we envision this LSTM model application in real-world settings to aid growers, consumers, and policymakers in facilitating informed decision-making. The insights derived from this forecasting research could augment market transparency and optimize supply chain management. Furthermore, it contributes to the market stability and the balance of supply and demand, offering a valuable reference for the sustainable development of the vegetable industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To deal with the issues of high computational cost and prediction uncertainty of numerical models in train-induced ground-borne vibration prediction, a prediction method based on transfer learning is proposed in this study. In this method, the vehicle–track-coupled analytical model and three-dimensional finite element model are first used to calculate the train-induced ground vibration under various condition variables, and these data were used as training samples to pre-train the deep neural network models. Numerous train-induced ground vibration experiments were then conducted along the metro lines in Beijing, and those measured vibration data were used to fine-tune the pre-trained deep neural network model with the transfer learning strategy. A random variable obeying a Gaussian distribution is assumed over the predicted vibration acceleration levels to model the randomness of train-induced vibration, and the parameters of this distribution were determined by the statistical results of vibration monitoring data in the metro tunnels. The fully trained model could complete the prediction of train-induced ground vibration in seconds. Finally, a case study was carried out, by comparing the probabilistic prediction results with the statistical results of the field measurements, and the feasibility and the improvement of the proposed method were demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological hazards often occur in mountainous areas and are sudden and hidden, so it is important to identify and assess geological hazards. In this paper, the western mountainous area of Beijing was selected as the study area. We conducted research on landslides, collapses, and unstable slopes in the study area. The surface deformation of the study area was monitored by multi-temporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (MT-InSAR), using a combination of multi-looking point selection and permanent scatterer (PS) point selection methods. Random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN) models were selected for the assessment of geological hazard susceptibility. Sixteen geological hazard-influencing factors were collected, and their information values were calculated using their features. Multicollinearity analysis with the relief-F method was used to calculate the correlation and importance of the factors for factor selection. The results show that the deformation rate along the line-of-sight (LOS) direction is between −44 mm/year and 28 mm/year. A total of 60 geological hazards were identified by combining surface deformation with optical imagery and other data, including 7 collapses, 25 unstable slopes, and 28 landslides. Forty-eight of the identified geological hazards are not recorded in the Beijing geological hazards list. The most effective model in the study area was RF. The percentage of geological hazard susceptibility zoning in the study area is as follows: very low susceptibility 27.40%, low susceptibility 28.06%, moderate susceptibility 21.19%, high susceptibility 13.80%, very high susceptibility 9.57%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the most important parameters of the interface between the earth surface and the atmosphere, and it plays a significant role in many research fields, such as agriculture, climate, hydrology, and the environment. However, the thermal infrared band of remote sensors is easily affected by clouds and aerosols, leading to many data gaps in LST products, which restricts the subsequent application of these products. In this paper, Beijing, China, is selected as the study area, and the LST data retrieved from Fengyun 4A (FY-4A) Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) are reconstructed based on the two-point machine learning method. Firstly, the two-point machine learning model is built to reconstruct the theoretical clear-sky LST from simulated and actual images, and the accuracy of the reconstruction results is evaluated compared with the random forest algorithm and the inverse distance weighted method. Secondly, the actual LST under the influence of clouds is reconstructed by using the ERA5 reanalysis LST data as the auxiliary data, and the reconstruction accuracy is then evaluated by the field measurement LST data. The experimental results show that (1) the prediction accuracy of the two-point machine learning method is higher than that of the random forest method in both simulated data and actual data experiments; (2) the R2 of reconstructed LST under theoretical clear-sky conditions is 0.6860 and the root mean square error (RMSE) is 2.9 K, while the R2 of the reconstructed accuracy of actual LST under clouds is 0.7275 and the RMSE is 2.6 K, i.e., the RMSE decreases by 10.34%; (3) the two-point machine method combined with the auxiliary ERA5 LST data can well reconstruct LST under cloudy conditions and present a reasonable LST distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the fast expansion and controversial impacts of short-term rental platforms such as Airbnb, many cities have called for regulating this new business model. This research aims to establish an approach to understand the impact of Airbnb (and similar services) through big data analysis and provide insights potentially useful for its regulation. The paper reveals how Airbnb is influencing Beijing's neighbourhood housing prices through machine learning and GIS. Machine learning models are developed to analyse the relationship between Airbnb activities in a neighbourhood and prevailing housing prices. The model of the best fit is then used to analyse the neighbourhood price sensitivity in view of increasing Airbnb activities. The results show that the sensitivity is variable: there are neighbourhoods that are likely to be more price sensitive to Airbnb activities, but also neighbourhoods that are likely to be price robust. Finally, the paper gives policy recommendations for regulating short-term rental businesses based on neighbourhood's price sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) has emerged as a subfield of GIScience that uses artificial intelligence approaches and machine learning techniques for geographic knowledge discovery. The non-regularity of data structures has recently led to different variants of graph neural networks in the field of computer science, with graph convolutional neural networks being one of the most prominent that operate on non-euclidean structured data where the numbers of nodes connections vary and the nodes are unordered. These networks use graph convolution – commonly known as filters or kernels – in place of general matrix multiplication in at least one of their layers. This paper suggests spatial regression graph convolutional neural networks (SRGCNNs) as a deep learning paradigm that is capable of handling a wide range of geographical tasks where multivariate spatial data needs modeling and prediction. The feasibility of SRGCNNs lies in the feature propagation mechanisms, the spatial locality nature, and a semi-supervised training strategy. In the experiments, this paper demonstrates the operation of SRGCNNs with social media check-in data in Beijing and house price data in San Diego. The results indicate that a well-trained SRGCNN model is capable of learning from samples and performing reasonable predictions for unobserved locations. The paper also presents the effectiveness of incorporating the idea of geographically weighted regression for handling heterogeneity between locations in the model approach. Compared to conventional spatial regression approaches, SRGCNN-based models tend to generate much more accurate and stable results, especially when the sampling ratio is low. This study offers to bridge the methodological gap between graph deep learning and spatial regression analytics. The proposed idea serves as an example to illustrate how spatial analytics can be combined with state-of-the-art deep learning models, and to enlighten future research at the front of GeoAI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of flight delays is of great significance to airports, airlines and passengers. This paper presents a causal flight delay prediction model developed for a single airport. A long short‐term memory network of delay prediction with an attention mechanism (LSTM‐AM) is established to predict flight delays and analyse their primary causes. In this model, the direct and indirect factors related to delays are comprehensively considered. LSTM‐AM can focus on input data combined with the attention vector to capture the critical time points, which can make the prediction more accurate. The model's performance is verified by actual operational data of Beijing International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the world. Experimental results show that LSTM‐AM has better prediction accuracy than baseline algorithms such as some machine learning methods and deep learning methods. The mean absolute error of LSTM‐AM is about 8.15 min on the test dataset. The study found that using the predicted results of this paper to release delayed information in advance can effectively alleviate the nervousness of passengers. The critical time point captured by LSTM‐AM combined with runway and apron flow control can reduce or eliminate delays of one flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface settlement is one of the key engineering issues during shield construction process. In order to accurately predict surface settlement, this paper proposes a new machine learning method based on relevance vector machine (RVM), principal component analysis (PCA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Taking Beijing Metro Line 6 as a case study, the PCA-PSO-RVM model is used to make the prediction and compared with the prediction results of the RVM model using the same samples. In order to evaluate the reliability of the model, three evaluation indexes including mean relative error (MRE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Theil inequality coefficient (TIC) were calculated, and sensitivity analysis was carried out on them. The results show that the minimum relative error between PCA-PSO-RVM and the actual value is only 0.06%. The calculated MRE, RMSE, and TIC are 0.17%, 0.0714 mm, and 0.027%, respectively, which shows that PCA-PSO-RVM model has higher prediction accuracy, smaller deviations, and higher reliability compared with the three other models. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that the weighted average internal friction angle (φ) has the most significant impact on the surface settlement, which should be focused on in relevant research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing has been sporadic since the beginning of 2022 and has become increasingly severe since October. In China's policy of insisting on dynamic clearance, fine-grained management has become the focus of current epidemic prevention and control. In this paper, we conduct a refined COVID-19 risk prediction and identification of its influencing factors in Beijing based on neighborhood-scale spatial statistical units. We obtained geographic coordinate data of COVID-19 cases in Beijing and quantified them into risk indices of each statistical unit. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the epidemic risk clustering characteristics. With the multi-source data, 20 influencing elements were constructed, and their spatial heterogeneity was explored by screening 8 for Multiscale Geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model analysis. Finally, a neural network classification model was used to predict the risk of COVID-19 within the sixth ring of Beijing. The MGWR model and the neural network classification model showed good performance: the R2 of the MGWR model was 0.770, and the accuracy of the neural network classification model was 0.852. The results of this study show that: (1) COVID-19 risk is uneven, with the highest clustering within the Fifth Ring Road of Beijing; (2) The results of the MGWR model show that population structure, population density, road density, residential area density, and living service facility density have significant spatial heterogeneity on COVID-19 risk; and (3) The prediction results show a high COVID-19 risk, with the most severe risk being in the eastern, southeastern and southern regions. It should be noted that the prediction results are highly consistent with the current epidemic situation in Shijingshan District, Beijing, and can provide a strong reference for fine-grained epidemic prevention and control in Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol refers to suspensions of small solid and liquid particles in the atmosphere. Although the content of aerosol in the atmosphere is small, it plays a crucial role in atmospheric and the climatic processes, making it essential to monitor. In areas with poor aerosol characteristics, satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) values often differ from ground-based AOD values measured by instruments like AERONET. The use of 3km DT, 10km DT and 10km DTB algorithms in Beijing area has led to significant overestimation of AOD values, highlighting the need for improvement. This paper proposes the use of machine learning techniques, specifically support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN), to correct the deviation of AOD data. Our approach leverages ground-based monitoring data, meteorological reanalysis data and satellite products to train the models. Our results show that the ANN model outperforms the SVR model achieving R2, RMSE and Slope values of 0.88, 0.12 and 0.97, respectively, when applied to nearly two decades of data from 2001 to 2019. This study significantly improves the accuracy of MODIS AOD values, reducing overestimation and bringing them closer to ground-based AOD values measured by AERONET. Our findings have important applications in climate research and environmental monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The housing market is of tremendous importance to the Chinese economy. Housing prices in a metropolitan like Beijing are determined not only by the structural attributes of housing units, but also by the externality stemming from local amenities and their investment potential. Meanwhile, the traditional hedonic pricing model fails to capture the latter two aspects due to its inability to capture the spatial and temporal dimensions of the housing market. In this paper, we augment the traditional model by introducing machine learning algorithms that can handle the additional complexity arising from time and space. Using a transaction-level dataset of housing prices in Beijing, we compare the performance of random forest and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), k-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and local polynomial. We find that GBM significantly outperforms the other methods in spatial prediction and sequential forecast. GBM's superior predictive capacity indicates the potential of machine learning techniques in reducing the costs of real estate appraisal, alleviating information asymmetry in the housing market, and improving people's welfare given the implications of home ownership on economic inequality and social mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding students at high risk of poor academic performance as early as possible plays an important role in improving education quality. To do so, most existing studies have used the traditional machine learning algorithms to predict students' achievement based on their behavior data, from which behavior features are extracted manually thanks to expert experience and knowledge. However, owing to an increase in the varieties and overall volume of behavioral data, it has become more and more challenging to identify high-quality handcrafted features. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end deep learning model that automatically extracts features from students' multi-source heterogeneous behavior data to predict academic performance. The key innovation of this model is that it uses long short-term memory networks to capture inherent time-series features for each type of behavior, and it takes two-dimensional convolutional networks to extract correlation features among different behaviors. We conducted experiments with four types of daily behavior data from students of the university in Beijing. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed deep model method outperforms several machine learning algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to provide new ideas and methods for the sustainable use of groundwater in areas with serious groundwater overexploitation and serious groundwater pollution. Geographic information systems (GIS) were combined with machine learning algorithms, water resources optimization technology, and groundwater numerical simulation to optimize the regulation of the groundwater table and quality beneath the Daxing District in the southern plain of Beijing. By collecting local consumption and supply data and observations of the groundwater table and quality in the connected aquifer beneath Daxing for the years 2006–2020, the corresponding water demands and groundwater impact were extrapolated for the years 2021–2025 based on the basis of the existing development model. Through the combination of GIS and machine learning algorithms, the NO3-N concentration of local groundwater monitoring points in wet years, normal years, and dry years were predicted. With respect to NO3-N pollution, three new groundwater exploitation regimes were devised, which we numbered 1 to 3. The optimal allocation of water resources was then calculated for wet year, typical year, and dry year scenarios for the year 2025. By comparing the water shortage, groundwater utilization rate, and NO3-N pollution under the new groundwater exploitation regimes, the optimal groundwater exploitation mode for the three different types of hydrological year was determined. The results indicate that NO3-N pollution was greatly reduced after the adoption of the optimal regimes and that the groundwater table demonstrated rapid recovery. These results can be of great help in realizing the management, supervision, and regulation of groundwater by combining GIS with machine learning algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A good risk warning model is an effective way to guarantee the stable operation of the carbon market and exert its emission reduction function. This paper takes the China's pilot carbon market as the research object and measures the carbon market risk by ARMA-GARCH-VaR. Then, influential factors are selected as non-market characteristics from the perspective of causality and incorporated into the risk warning model, and SMOTE and SMOTEENN are introduced to deal with the unbalanced samples. Results show that (1) The risk fluctuations of Beijing and Shenzhen carbon market are large, and the risk fluctuations of Guangdong carbon market are relatively smooth in the early period and larger in the recent period. (2) Air quality, average daily temperature, CSI 300, power coal, natural gas, European carbon market, exchange rate, and Baidu index are all important factors in the risk volatility of carbon market. (3) The Classification Decision Tree (CDT) has the best performance. CDT has the best performance in Guangdong carbon market, SMOTE-CDT has the best performance in Hubei carbon market, and SMOTEENN-CDT has the best performance in Shanghai carbon market, in which SMOTEENN-CDT has a 76% Recall. The non-equilibrium treatment improves the overall Recall, and the risk warning model after non-equilibrium treatment can avoid missing important risk points. This paper can provide a certain degree of reference for the improvement of carbon trading market and risk management. [Display omitted] • A carbon market warning model is constructed. • The average VaR of the carbon trading markets in Shenzhen and Beijing is larger. • CDT performs better in market risk warning. • The model improves 34.8% in the avoidance of risk compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the limitation of carbon emissions, China's photovoltaic (PV) industry has developed vigorously, while some traditional heavy industries have been violently hit. Therefore, the industrial production data exhibits significant nonlinear and complexity characteristics, which may affect prediction accuracy, thus hindering the corresponding department's decision-making. Consequently, a novel structure-adaptive fractional Bernoulli grey model is presented in this paper to surmount this toughie, and the core innovations can be summarized as follows. Initially, a novel time function term is utilized to depict the accumulative time effect, which can smoothly represent the dynamic variations and significantly strengthen the robustness of the new model. Besides, the fractional-order accumulation technique, which could effectively improve the predicting accuracy, is employed in the proposed model. Furthermore, the adaptability and generalizability of the proposed model can be enhanced by the self-adaptive parameters optimized by the Particle Swarm Optimization. For illustration and verification purposes, experiments on forecasting the annual output of Photovoltaic modules in China and the annual output of steel in Beijing are compared with a range of benchmarks, including the classic GM (1, 1), conventional econometric technology, and machine learning methods. And the results confirmed that the proposed model is superior to all benchmark models, which indicates that the novel model is indeed suitable for industrial production forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 affects aviation around the world. China's civil aviation almost recovered to its pre-epidemic levels in the domestic market, but there are still local outbreaks that affect air traffic. This paper proposes measuring the impact of local outbreaks of COVID-19 by the machine learning method and the synthetic control method as a counterfactual control group to measure such an impact. In this study, we use the LightGBM algorithm to construct a counterfactual control group and transform the prediction problem from time series to the fitting problem at the spatial level. We find that machine learning methods can measure such an impact more accurately. We take local outbreaks in Beijing and Dalian as examples, and our measure of their impacts shows that the impact of an outbreak on intercity air traffic can be divided into lag, decline, stable, and recovery periods, and will last for a long period (more than 40 days) unless there are external stimuli, such as legal holidays. The outbreaks reduced the number of passengers in the cities by 90%. Finally, we show the impact on the air traffic network, and find that when a local outbreak happens in a big city, tourist cities or small stations will be greatly affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the study of intelligent art resulting from the fusion growth of artificial intelligence and art, and proposes the process of collision and integration between them. At the same time, this paper explores the space and possibility of the fusion development of AI and art, illustrates how technology reconstructs and further inspires art design innovation. Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony is selected as an example, to underline the application of AI technology in large-scale visual art design. In addition, it summarizes also the advantages and limitations of AI applications in art, analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing the integration of such technology and art, and discusses their future development and outlook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few decades, due to human activities, industrialization, and urbanization, air pollution has become a life-threatening factor in many countries around the world. Among air pollutants, Particulate Matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μ m ( P M 2.5 ) is a serious health problem. It causes various illnesses such as respiratory tract and cardiovascular diseases. Hence, it is necessary to accurately predict the P M 2.5 concentrations in order to prevent the citizens from the dangerous impact of air pollution beforehand. The variation of P M 2.5 depends on a variety of factors, such as meteorology and the concentration of other pollutants in urban areas. In this paper, we implemented a deep learning solution to predict the hourly forecast of P M 2.5 concentration in Beijing, China, based on CNN-LSTM, with a spatial-temporal feature by combining historical data of pollutants, meteorological data, and P M 2.5 concentration in the adjacent stations. We examined the difference in performances among Deep learning algorithms such as LSTM, Bi-LSTM, GRU, Bi-GRU, CNN, and a hybrid CNN-LSTM model. Experimental results indicate that our method "hybrid CNN-LSTM multivariate" enables more accurate predictions than all the listed traditional models and performs better in predictive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of PM2.5 is important for environmental forecasting and air pollution control. In this study, four machine learning methods, ground-based LiDAR data and meteorological data were used to predict the ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing. Among the four methods, the random forest (RF) method was the most effective in predicting ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. Compared with BP neural network, support vector machine (SVM), and various linear fitting methods, the accuracy of the RF method was superior by 10%. The method can describe the spatial and temporal variation in PM2.5 concentrations under different meteorological conditions, with low root mean square error (RMSE) and mean square deviation (MD), and the consistency index (IA) reached 99.69%. Under different weather conditions, the hourly variation in PM2.5 concentrations has a good descriptive ability. In this paper, we analyzed the weights of input variables in the RF method, constructed a pollution case to correspond to the relationship between input variables and PM2.5, and analyzed the sources of pollutants via HYSPLIT backward trajectory. This method can study the interaction between PM2.5 and air pollution variables, and provide new ideas for preventing and forecasting air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a set of deep learning and mode decomposition methods, a short-term prediction model for PM2.5 concentration for Beijing city is established in this paper. An ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm is first used to decompose the original PM2.5 timeseries to several high- to low-frequency intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Each IMF component is then trained and predicted by a combination of three neural networks: back propagation network (BP), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and a hybrid network of a convolutional neural network (CNN) + LSTM. The results showed that both BP and LSTM are able to fit the low-frequency IMFs very well, and the total prediction errors of the summation of all IMFs are remarkably reduced from 21 g/m3 in the single BP model to 4.8 g/m3 in the EEMD + BP model. Spatial information from 143 stations surrounding Beijing city is extracted by CNN, which is then used to train the CNN+LSTM. It is found that, under extreme weather conditions of PM2.5 < 35 g/m3 and PM2.5 > 150 g/m3, the prediction errors of the CNN + LSTM model are improved by ~30% compared to the single LSTM model. However, the prediction of the very high-frequency IMF mode (IMF-1) remains a challenge for all neural networks, which might be due to microphysical turbulences and chaotic processes that cannot be resolved by the above-mentioned neural networks based on variable–variable relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate driving forces of different land-use types to BSD. • Diversified machine learnings are proposed for spatial interpolation fusion. • Hotspot detection establishes sampling points for reducing the MAUP effect. • Fusion models improve the interpolation performance: accuracy and stability. • Word clouds identifies predominant facility names in each land-use type. Land use plays a crucial role in promoting the bike-sharing demand. Traditionally, studies on bike-sharing demand (BSD) are mainly focused on its prediction through regression methods, but the influence of MAUP (modifiable areal unit problem) in modeling is ignored. This paper aims to model spatial BSD distribution and prove the driving forces of different land use types to BSD through a machine-learning-based multiple interpolation fusion method. The hotspot detection model is employed to establish sample points covering different land use types in urban areas. In order to capture the differences in adaptations among different urban regions and for different data sizes, six machine learning methods are applied and evaluated to improve BSD estimation by fusing five spatial interpolation algorithms, including Inverse Distance Weight, Spline, Kriging, Natural Neighborhood and Trend. The methodological verification of Beijing City shows that the fusion models improve the estimation performance compared with individual interpolation algorithms, and that GRNN (generalized regression neural network) method is superior to all the others. According to fitting results of all POIs based on the GRNN fusion model, we identify which types of facilities correspond to customers that will have a stronger preference for bike-sharing and demonstrate which facility names are more prominent in each land use type. The conclusions presented here enrich our understanding relationships between land-use and BSD, which provide a valuable foundation for the bike-sharing development. Compared with implementing regression in an analysis zone or a square grid, troubles caused by the MAUP are effectively solved through this method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a common cardiovascular disease and recognizing low prognosis risk patients with PTE accurately is significant for clinical treatment. This study evaluated the value of federated learning (FL) technology in PTE prognosis risk assessment while ensuring the security of clinical data. Methods: A retrospective dataset consisted of PTE patients from 12 hospitals were collected, and 19 physical indicators of patients were included to train the FL-based prognosis assessment model to predict the 30-day death event. Firstly, multiple machine learning methods based on FL were compared to choose the superior model. And then performance of models trained on the independent (IID) and non-independent identical distributed(Non-IID) datasets was calculated and they were tested further on Real-world data. Besides, the optimal model was compared with pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI), simplified PESI (sPESI), Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH). Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of logistic regression(0.842) outperformed convolutional neural network (0.819) and multi layer perceptron (0.784). Under IID, AUC of model trained using FL(Fed) on the training, validation and test sets was 0.852 ± 0.002, 0.867 ± 0.012 and 0.829 ± 0.004. Under Real-world, AUC of Fed was 0.855 ± 0.005, 0.882 ± 0.003 and 0.835 ± 0.005. Under IID and Real-world, AUC of Fed surpassed centralization model(NonFed) (0.847 ± 0.001, 0.841 ± 0.001 and 0.811 ± 0.001). Under Non-IID, although AUC of Fed (0.846 ± 0.047) outperformed NonFed (0.841 ± 0.001) on validation set, it (0.821 ± 0.016 and 0.799 ± 0.031) slightly lagged behind NonFed (0.847 ± 0.001 and 0.811 ± 0.001) on the training and test sets. In practice, AUC of Fed (0.853, 0.884 and 0.842) outshone PESI (0.812, 0.789 and 0.791), sPESI (0.817, 0.770 and 0.786) and PUMCH(0.848, 0.814 and 0.832) on the training, validation and test sets. Additionally, Fed (0.842) exhibited higher AUC values across test sets compared to those trained directly on the clients (0.758, 0.801, 0.783, 0.741, 0.788). Conclusions: In this study, the FL based machine learning model demonstrated commendable efficacy on PTE prognostic risk prediction, rendering it well-suited for deployment in hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate traffic congestion estimation and prediction are critical building blocks for smart trip planning and rerouting decisions in transportation systems. Over the decades, there have been many studies focusing on traffic congestion estimation and prediction with different statistical approaches (e.g., Markov chain) and machine learning models (e.g., clustering, Bayesian networks, and artificial neural networks). However, there is a lack of a unified framework to address the mechanisms of different models and integrate the advantages of different methods through combinations. This paper introduces the FD-Markov-LSTM model, a hybrid interpretable approach that combines the fundamental diagram (FD), Markov chain, and long short-term memory (LSTM). The aim is to estimate and predict traffic states by integrating statistical data in both congested and uncongested scenarios. The FD-Markov-LSTM model leverages the FD to identify hierarchical traffic states and utilizes the Markov process to capture the probabilistic transitions between these states. We employ the LSTM model to further capture the residual time series produced by the Markov chain model (assuming a memoryless property) to enhance the estimation and prediction performance. The proposed model's accuracy in estimating and predicting traffic flow is evaluated using empirical data from three case studies conducted in Beijing and Los Angeles. The results highlight a significant improvement in accuracy compared to classical benchmark models such as the Markov model, ARIMA model, k-Nearest Neighbor model, Random Forest model, and LSTM. Specifically, the FD-Markov-LSTM model achieves reductions of over 39% in mean absolute error, 35% in root mean squared error, and 7.4% in mean absolute percentage error. These results clearly demonstrate that the FD-Markov-LSTM model outperforms the benchmark models, enabling more precise predictions of traffic flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road damage is a great threat to the service life and safety of roads, and the early detection of pavement damage can facilitate maintenance and repair. Street view images serve as a new solution for the monitoring of pavement damage due to their wide coverage and regular updates. In this study, a road pavement damage dataset, the Street View Image Dataset for Automated Road Damage Detection (SVRDD), was developed using 8000 street view images acquired from Baidu Maps. Based on these images, over 20,000 damage instances were visually recognized and annotated. These instances were distributed in five administrative districts of Beijing City. Ten well-established object detection algorithms were trained and assessed using the SVRDD dataset. The results have demonstrated the performances of these algorithms in the detection of pavement damages. To the best of our knowledge, SVRDD is the first public dataset based on street view images for pavement damages detection. It can provide reliable data support for future development of deep learning algorithms based on street view images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using machine learning methods to analyze the fatigue status of medical security personnel and the factors influencing fatigue (such as BMI, gender, and wearing protective clothing working hours), with the goal of identifying the key factors contributing to fatigue. By validating the predicted outcomes, actionable and practical recommendations can be offered to enhance fatigue status, such as reducing wearing protective clothing working hours. A questionnaire was designed to assess the fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period, aiming to capture information on fatigue experienced during work and disease recovery. The collected data was then preprocessed and used to determine the structural parameters for each machine learning algorithm. To evaluate the prediction performance of different models, the mean relative error (MRE) and goodness of fit (R2) between the true and predicted values were calculated. Furthermore, the importance rankings of various parameters in relation to fatigue status were determined using the RF feature importance analysis method. The fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period was analyzed using multiple machine learning methods. The prediction performance of these methods was ranked from highest to lowest as follows: Gradient Boosting Regression (GBM) > Random Forest (RF) > Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) > K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) > Support Vector Regression (SVR). Among these algorithms, four out of the five achieved good prediction results, with the GBM method performing the best. The five most critical parameters influencing fatigue status were identified as working hours in protective clothing, a customized symptom and disease score (CSDS), physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), and age, all of which had importance scores exceeding 0.06. Notably, working hours in protective clothing obtained the highest importance score of 0.54, making it the most critical factor impacting fatigue status. Fatigue is a prevalent and pressing issue among medical security personnel operating in closed-loop environments. In our investigation, we observed that the GBM method exhibited superior predictive performance in determining the fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period, surpassing other machine learning techniques. Notably, our analysis identified several critical factors influencing the fatigue status of medical security personnel, including the duration of working hours in protective clothing, CSDS, and engagement in physical exercise. These findings shed light on the multifaceted nature of fatigue among healthcare workers and emphasize the importance of considering various contributing factors. To effectively alleviate fatigue, prudent management of working hours for security personnel, along with minimizing the duration of wearing protective clothing, proves to be promising strategies. Furthermore, promoting regular physical exercise among medical security personnel can significantly impact fatigue reduction. Additionally, the exploration of medication interventions and the adoption of innovative protective clothing options present potential avenues for mitigating fatigue. The insights derived from this study offer valuable guidance to management personnel involved in organizing large-scale events, enabling them to make informed decisions and implement targeted interventions to address fatigue among medical security personnel. In our upcoming research, we will further expand the fatigue dataset while considering higher precisionprediction algorithms, such as XGBoost model, ensemble model, etc., and explore their potential contributions to our research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting urban-scale carbon emissions (CEs) is crucial in drawing implications for various urgent environmental issues, including global warming. However, prior studies have overlooked the impact of the micro-level street environment, which might lead to biased prediction. To fill this gap, we developed an effective machine learning (ML) framework to predict neighborhood-level residential CEs based on a single data source, street view images (SVIs), which are publicly available worldwide. Specifically, more than 30 streetscape elements were classified from SVIs using semantic segmentation to describe the micro-level street environment, whose visual features can indicate major socioeconomic activities that significantly affect residential CEs. A ten-fold cross-validation was deployed to train ML models to predict the residential CEs at the 1 km grid level. We found, first, that random forest (R2 = 0.8) outperforms many traditional models, confirming that visual features are non-negligible in explaining CEs. Second, more building, wall, and fence views indicate higher CEs. Third, the presence of trees and grass is inversely related to CEs. Our findings justify the feasibility of using SVIs as a single data source to effectively predict neighborhood-level residential CEs. The framework is applicable to large regions across diverse urban forms, informing urban planners of sustainable urban form strategies to achieve carbon-neutral goals, especially for the development of new towns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, corneal refractive surgery has been widely used in clinics as an effective means to restore vision and improve the quality of life. When choosing myopia-refractive surgery, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the differences in equipment and technology as well as the specificity of individual patients, which heavily depend on the experience of ophthalmologists. In our study, we took advantage of machine learning to learn about the experience of ophthalmologists in decision-making and assist them in the choice of corneal refractive surgery in a new case. Our study was based on the clinical data of 7,081 patients who underwent corneal refractive surgery between 2000 and 2017 at the Department of Ophthalmology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. Due to the long data period, there were data losses and errors in this dataset. First, we cleaned the data and deleted the samples of key data loss. Then, patients were divided into three groups according to the type of surgery, after which we used SMOTE technology to eliminate imbalance between groups. Six statistical machine learning models, including NBM, RF, AdaBoost, XGBoost, BP neural network, and DBN were selected, and a ten-fold cross-validation and grid search were used to determine the optimal hyperparameters for better performance. When tested on the dataset, the multi-class RF model showed the best performance, with agreement with ophthalmologist decisions as high as 0.8775 and Macro F1 as high as 0.8019. Furthermore, the results of the feature importance analysis based on the SHAP technique were consistent with an ophthalmologist's practical experience. Our research will assist ophthalmologists in choosing appropriate types of refractive surgery and will have beneficial clinical effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the built environment factor's impact on metro ridership can help develop metro station area planning strategies. This is in order to compensate for the shortcomings of previous studies, which mostly used all uniform pedestrian catchment areas (PCA) around metro stations. Beijing was divided into two zones and 12 built environment explanatory variables were selected as independent variables based on the "7D" dimension of the built environment. The boarding ridership during the morning peak hours was used as the dependent variable. Nineteen PCA radii from 200 to 2000 m were assumed. The optimal PCA of metro stations for each zone was determined by using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with the objective of minimizing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The nonlinear impact of the built environment factor of each zone on metro ridership is analyzed under the optimal PCA of metro stations. The study results show that (1) the optimal PCAs of metro stations inside the 4th Ring Road and outside the 4th Ring Road are the circular buffer zones with a radius of 800 m and 1300 m, respectively. (2) There is a nonlinear influence of the built environment factor on metro ridership, with strong threshold effects and spatial heterogeneity. The PCA results can be used for the built environment's zoning of metro stations. The XGBoost model and the nonlinear impact results provide significant implications for the practice of station-level ridership forecasting and integrating TOD development and built environment renewal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As for the problem that the traditional single depth prediction model has poor strain capacity to the prediction results of time series data when predicting lake eutrophication, this study takes the multi-factor water quality data affecting lake eutrophication as the main research object. A deep reinforcement learning model is proposed, which can realize the mutual conversion of water quality data prediction models at different times, select the optimal prediction strategy of lake eutrophication at the current time according to its own continuous learning, and improve the reinforcement learning algorithm. Firstly, the greedy factor, the fixed parameter of Agent learning training in reinforcement learning, is introduced into an arctangent function and the mean value reward factor is defined. On this basis, three Q estimates are introduced, and the weight parameters are obtained by calculating the realistic value of Q, taking the average value and the minimum value to update the final Q table, so as to get an Improved MIMO-DD-3Q Learning model. The preliminary prediction results of lake eutrophication are obtained, and the errors obtained are used as the secondary input to continue updating the Q table to build the final Improved MIMO-DD-3Q Learning model, so as to achieve the final prediction of water eutrophication. In this study, multi-factor water quality data of Yongding River in Beijing were selected from 0:00 on July 26, 2021 to 0:00 on September 5, 2021. Firstly, data smoothing and principal component analysis were carried out to confirm that there was a certain correlation between all factors in the occurrence of lake eutrophication. Then, the Improved MIMO-DD-3Q Learning prediction model was used for experimental verification. The results show that the Improved MIMO-DD-3Q Learning model has a good effect in the field of lake eutrophication prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The world in recent years has seen a pandemic of global scale. To counter the widespread loss of life and severe repercussions, researchers developed vaccinations at a fast pace to immunize the population. While the vaccines were developed and tested through extensive human trials, historically vaccines have been known to evoke mixed sentiments among the generic demographics. In the proposed study, we aim to reveal the impact of political and socio-economic factors on SARS-Cov-2 vaccination trends observed in two hundred and seventeen countries spread across the six continents. Methods: The study had hypothesized that the citizens who have lower trust in their government would be less inclined towards vaccination programs. To test this hypothesis, vaccination trends of nations under authoritarian rule were compared against democratic nations. Further, the study was synthesized with Cov-2 vaccination data which was sourced from Our World Data repository, which was sampled among 217 countries spread across the 6 continents. The study was analyzed with exploratory data analysis and proposed with relevance and impacting factor that was considered for vaccine dissemination in comparison with the literacy rate of the nations. Another impacting factor the study focused on for the vaccination dissemination trends was the health expenses of different nations. The study has been synthesized on political and socio-economic factors where the features were ardently study in retrospect of varied socio- economic features which may include country wise literacy rate, overall GDP rate, further we substantiated the work to address the political factors which are discussed as the country status of democratic or having other status. Results: The comparison of trends showed that dissemination of SARS-Cov-2 vaccines had been comparable between the two-opposing types of governance. The major impact factor behind the wide acceptance of the SARS-Cov-2 vaccine was the expenditure done by a country on healthcare. These nations used a large number of vaccines to administer to their population and the trends showed positive growth. The overall percentage of vaccine utilized by countries in quantitative terms are Pfizer/BioNTech (17.55%), Sputnik V (7.08%), Sinovac (6.98%), Sinopharm/Beijing (10.04%), Oxford/AstraZeneca (19.56%), CanSino (2.85%), Moderna (12.05%), Covaxin (3.28%), JohnsonandJohnson (10.89%), Sputnik Light (3.07%), Novavax (3.49%). While the nations with the lowest healthcare expenses failed to keep up with the demand and depended on vaccines donated by other countries to protect their population. Conclusions: The analysis revealed strong indicators that the nations which spend more on healthcare were the ones that had the best SARS-Cov-2 vaccination rollout. To further support decision-making in the future, countries should address the trust and sentiment of their citizens towards vaccination. For this, expenses need to be made to develop and promote vaccines and project them as positive health tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new algorithm (BUNTUS—Built-up, Nighttime Light, and Travel time for Urban Size) using remote sensing techniques to delineate urban boundaries. The paper is part of a larger study of the role of urbanisation in changing fossil fuel emissions. The method combines estimates of land cover, nighttime lights, and travel times to classify contiguous urban areas. The method is automatic, global and uses data sets with enough duration to establish trends. Validation using ground truth from Landsat-8 OLI images revealed an overall accuracy ranging from 60% to 95%. Thus, this approach is capable of describing spatial distributions and giving detailed information of urban extents. We demonstrate the method with examples from Brisbane, Australia, Melbourne, Australia, and Beijing, China. The new method meets the criteria for studying overall trends in urban emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of China's industrialization, the air pollution is becoming more and more serious. It is vital for us to predict the air quality for determining the further prevention measures of avoiding the brought disasters. In this paper, we are going to propose an approach of predicting the air quality based on the multiple data features through fusing the multiple machine learning models. The approach takes the meteorological data and air quality data for the past six days as one batch of input (the whole data set is for 46 days) and employs a multi-model fusion to provide an improved 24-hour prediction of PM2.5 pollutant concentration all over Beijing. During the above process, two focal feature groups are composed. The first focal feature group contains the historical meteorological data, while the second group includes the statistical information, the date information and the polynomial variations. Besides the two groups, we complement one million more data items by employing the time sliding means. Among the supplementary data, we select the most critical 500 features with Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model and send the features as the input to Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and LightGBM models. Meanwhile, we screen the most critical 300 features with eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and send them as the input to the three prediction models. Referring to each of the models, we respectively gain the optimal parameters through grid search methods and then fuse the models' contribution with the linear weighting. The experiments indicate that the proposed approach based on the weighting fusion is better than that provided by a single modeling scheme, and the loss value is 0.4158 under the SMAPE index. • An approach of predicting air quality with fusing the multiple machine learning models. • The machine learning solutions to model PM2.5 pollutant concentration distribution feature. • The time sliding means for developing one million more data items. • The fusion of multiple models under linear weighting strategy. The experiments indicate that the approach based on the weighting fusion is better than that provided by the single modeling scheme, and the loss value is 0.4158 under the SMAPE index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the structures of buildings in urban areas is a prerequisite for robust urban planning and regeneration. Owing to the diverse structural designs of urban buildings, automated approaches are required to classify building structures. Supervised machine learning is usually employed to classify various building characteristics. However, this approach requires significant labeling effort. Therefore, this paper proposes a new pre-clustering active learning method for building structure classification. The proposed method captures the statistical characteristics of samples and enhances the recognition of the most valuable training samples, thereby substantially reducing the labeling workload and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of classification. This method was tested via the classification of 3718 buildings in Beijing, China, into five common structures. The results showed that the proposed method could reduce labeling effort by 60% while achieving a promising 90% F1 score for overall classification performance, thus indicating its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The gut mycobiome of patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains unexplored. This study aimed to characterize the gut mycobiome in patients with LUAD and evaluate the potential of gut fungi as non-invasive biomarkers for early diagnosis. Methods: In total, 299 fecal samples from Beijing, Suzhou, and Hainan were collected prospectively. Using internal transcribed spacer 2 sequencing, we profiled the gut mycobiome. Five supervised machine learning algorithms were trained on fungal signatures to build an optimized prediction model for LUAD in a discovery cohort comprising 105 patients with LUAD and 61 healthy controls (HCs) from Beijing. Validation cohorts from Beijing, Suzhou, and Hainan comprising 44, 17, and 15 patients with LUAD and 26, 19, and 12 HCs, respectively, were used to evaluate efficacy. Results: Fungal biodiversity and richness increased in patients with LUAD. At the phylum level, the abundance of Ascomycota decreased, while that of Basidiomycota increased in patients with LUAD. Candida and Saccharomyces were the dominant genera, with a reduction in Candida and an increase in Saccharomyces, Aspergillus, and Apiotrichum in patients with LUAD. Nineteen operational taxonomic unit markers were selected, and excellent performance in predicting LUAD was achieved (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.9350) using a random forest model with outcomes superior to those of four other algorithms. The AUCs of the Beijing, Suzhou, and Hainan validation cohorts were 0.9538, 0.9628, and 0.8833, respectively. Conclusions: For the first time, the gut fungal profiles of patients with LUAD were shown to represent potential non-invasive biomarkers for early-stage diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been extensively utilized for retrieving ground-level PM2.5 distributions. However, the presence of non-random missing data gaps in AOD poses a challenge to directly obtaining the gap-free AOD-derived PM2.5, thereby impeding accurate exposure risk assessment. Here, this study presents a novel and flexible framework that couples stacking and flexible spatiotemporal data fusion (FSDAF) approaches. By integrating multiple models and data sources, this framework aims to generate hourly (24-h) gap-free PM2.5 estimates for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region in 2018. This study effectively reconstructed data at least three times more effectively than the original AOD-derived PM2.5, achieving the Pearson coefficient (r), the coefficient determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) values of 0.91, 0.84, 19.38 µg/m3, and 12.17 µg/m3, respectively, based on entire samples. Such strong predictive performance was also exhibited in spatial-based (r: 0.92–0.93, R2: 0.85–0.87, RMSE: 18.13 µg/m3–20.18 µg/m3, and MAE: 11.21 µg/m3–12.52 µg/m3) and temporal-based (r: 0.91–0.98, R2: 0.82–0.96, RMSE: 3.8 µg/m3–21.89 µg/m3, and MAE: 2.71 µg/m3–14.00 µg/m3) validations, indicating the robustness of this framework. Additionally, this framework enables the assessment of annual and seasonal PM2.5 concentrations and distributions, revealing that higher levels are experienced in the southern region, while lower levels prevail in the northern part. Winter exhibits the most severe levels, followed by spring and autumn, with comparatively lower levels in summer. Notably, the proposed framework effectively mitigates bias in calculating population-weighted exposure risk by filling data gaps with calculated values of 51.04 µg/m3, 54.17 µg/m3, 56.24 µg/m3, and 55.00 µg/m3 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and the BTH region, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining accurate PM2.5 pollution concentrations and understanding their dynamic patterns are crucial for scientifically informed air pollution control strategies. Traditional reliance on linear correlation coefficients for ascertaining PM2.5-related factors only uncovers superficial relationships. Moreover, the invariance of conventional prediction models restricts their accuracy. To enhance the precision of PM2.5 concentration prediction, this study introduces a novel integrated model that leverages feature selection and a clustering algorithm. Comprising three components—feature selection, clustering, and integrated prediction—the model first employs the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III) to identify the most impactful features affecting PM2.5 concentration within air pollutants and meteorological factors. This step offers more valuable feature data for subsequent modules. The model then adopts a two-layer clustering method (SOM+K-means) to analyze the multifaceted irregularity within the dataset. Finally, the model establishes the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) weak learner for each classification, integrating multiple weak learners using the AdaBoost algorithm to obtain a comprehensive prediction model. Through feature correlation enhancement, data irregularity exploration, and model adaptability improvement, the proposed model significantly enhances the overall prediction performance. Data sourced from 12 Beijing-based monitoring sites in 2016 were utilized for an empirical study, and the model's results were compared with five other predictive models. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed model significantly heightens prediction accuracy, offering useful insights and potential for broadened application to multifactor correlation concentration prediction methodologies for other pollutants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For curbing the global climate crisis, China has set an ambitious target of peak carbon emissions by 2030. Beijing, the capital of China, has implemented a carbon reduction policy since 2012. Using the reduced and generalized forms of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), we deduce that both the cubic EKC and the genetic algorithm-based EKC have an N-shape. The first turning point of the three-order EKC occurs around 2011, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon reduction policy. However, the time series model predicts that Beijing will reach the second turning point around 2026, when the gross domestic product (GDP) is about CNY 5000 billion and carbon emissions will begin to increase again. Interpretable machine learning is proposed to explore the socio-economic drivers in carbon emissions, indicating that total energy consumption and GDP contribute the most. Therefore, we should accelerate the upgrading of energy consumption and adjust the industrial structure, thus facilitating Beijing to its peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a study of the spatial distribution of coffee shops in the main urban area of Beijing, the main influencing factors were selected based on the multi-source space data. Subsequently, three regression models were compared, and the best site selection model was found. A comparison was performed between the prediction model functioning with a buffer and without one, and the accuracy of the location model was verified by comparing the actual change trend and the predicted trend in two years. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) coffee shops in the main urban area of Beijing are clustered in an area within 12 km of the main urban center, and also around the core commercial agglomeration area; (2) the random forest (RF) model is the best model in this study, and the accuracy values before and after buffer analysis were 0.915 and 0.929, respectively; and (3) after verifying the accuracy of the model through two years of data, we recommend the establishment of a main road buffer zone for site selection, and the success rate of site selection was found to reach 72.97%. This study provides crucial insight for coffee shop prediction model selection and potential store location selection, which is significant to improving the layout of leisure spaces and promoting economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical presence of a street, called the "street view", is a medium through which people perceive the urban form. A street's spatial ratio is the main feature of the street view, and its measurement and quality are the core issues in the field of urban design. The traditional method of studying urban aspect ratios is manual on-site observation, which is inefficient, incomplete and inaccurate, making it difficult to reveal overall patterns and influencing factors. Street view images (SVI) provide large-scale urban data that, combined with deep learning algorithms, allow for studying street spatial ratios from a broader space-time perspective. This approach can reveal an urban forms' aesthetics, spatial quality, and evolution process. However, current streetscape research mainly focuses on the creation and maintenance of spatial data infrastructure, street greening, street safety, urban vitality, etc. In this study, quantitative research of the Beijing street spatial ratio was carried out using street view images, a convolution neural network algorithm, and the classical street spatial ratio theory of urban morphology. Using the DenseNet model, the quantitative measurement of Beijing's urban street location, street aspect ratio, and the street symmetry was realized. According to the model identification results, the law of the gradual transition of the street spatial ratio was depicted (from the open and balanced type to the canyon type and from the historical to the modern). Changes in the streets' spatiotemporal characteristics in the central area of Beijing were revealed. Based on this, the clustering and distribution phenomena of four street aspect ratio types in Beijing are discussed and the relationship between the street aspect ratio type and symmetry is summarized, selecting a typical lot for empirical research. The classical theory of street spatial proportion has limitations under the conditions of high-density development in modern cities, and the traditional urban morphology theory, combined with new technical methods such as streetscape images and deep learning algorithms, can provide new ideas for the study of urban space morphology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complete and high-quality deformation monitoring data are critical for shield tunnel construction safety and quality. In engineering practices, data missing frequently occurs during instrumentation, adversely impacting further analysis and decision making. Existing imputation methods either ignore the crucial interactions between different parameters during shield tunneling or focus on the global characteristics of deformation data while neglect their local difference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, MCCB, combining multi-view matrix completion algorithms, convolutional neural network (CNN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) algorithms to impute missing deformation values in shield tunnel monitoring data. The performance of the proposed method is verified using bridge deformation data from a practical project in Beijing. Different missing patterns of the bridge deformation data are filled. The experiment results show that the proposed model can effectively learn the various characteristics of the deformation data and outperforms the four selected models and its two sub-models, and can be used to improve the accuracy of the deformation prediction through data imputation. The novelty of this study includes two aspects. First is that the complicated interaction between different parameters and local difference of the data are considered simultaneously. They have not been addressed before by existing studies. Second is that the innovative combination of matrix completion and deep learning algorithm for application in missing deformation values imputation. To our best knowledge, no research on engineering construction has implemented this technique before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of the census and monitoring of national geographical conditions in China, the availability of information has sharply increased. Progress in data mining methods and social application tools has provided a way for solving the problems of low resource allocation and high uncertainty in decision-making regarding planning. To relieve non-capital functions and serve the healthy development of the Beijing Metropolitan Area, we propose a new model of self-adaptive cellular automaton based on ensemble learning (EL-CA). The method is based on the data collected by monitoring geographical conditions and is guided by complex geocomputing that simulates city-scale evolution in Beijing. A comparison of predicted and real data for Beijing in 2015 demonstrated that the predictions made by the EL-CA model proposed significantly outperformed those by traditional cellular automaton (CA) models based on empirical statistics. Data on the geographical conditions in Beijing in 2007 and 2015 were employed in model simulation and training to predict the scale of the city in 2023. The urban agglomeration points in Beijing tended to be dense, the overall construction land tended to be saturated, and the growth rate of land use areas slowed. Results from the model also established that the construction land in Beijing is close to saturation from a quantitative perspective, and the potential urban expansion hotspots in the future are mainly concentrated in the Tongzhou District, the Daxing District, the Fangshan District, the south side of the fourth and fifth ring roads, and the southwest side of Pinggu District. These results can provide decision-makers in urban planning with supporting data and support Beijing to relieve Beijing of functions nonessential to its role as China's capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a common geological hazard, debris flow is widely distributed around the world. Meanwhile, due to the influence of many factors such as geology, geomorphology and climate, the occurrence frequency and main inducing factors are different in different places. Therefore, the evaluation of debris flow sensitivity can provide a very important theoretical basis for disaster prevention and control. In this research, 43 debris flow gullies in Changping District, Beijing were cataloged and studied through field surveys and the 3S technology (GIS (Geography Information Systems), GPS (Global Positioning Systems), RS (Remote Sensing)). Eleven factors, including elevation, slope, plane curvature, profile curvature, roundness, geomorphic information entropy, TWI, SPI, TCI, NDVI and rainfall, were selected to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system. The watershed unit is directly related to the development and activities of debris flow, which can fully reflect the geomorphic and geological environment of debris flow. Therefore, the watershed unit was selected as the basic mapping unit to establish four evaluation models, namely ACA–PCA–FR (Analytic Hierarchy Process–Principal Component Analysis–Frequency Ratio), FR (Frequency Ratio), SVM (Support Vector Machines) and LR (Logistic Regression). In other words, this research evaluates debris flow susceptibility by comparingit with two traditional weight methods (ACA–PCA–FR and FR) and two machine learning methods (SVM and LR). The results show that the SVM evaluation model is superior to the other three models, and thevalueofthe area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) is 0.889 from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). It verifies that the SVM model has strong adaptability to small sample data. The study was divided into five regions, which were very low, low, moderate, high and very high, accounting for 22.31%, 25.04%, 17.66%, 18.85% and 16.14% of the total study area, respectively, by SVM model. The results obtained in this researchagree with the actual survey results, and can provide theoretical help for disaster prevention and reduction projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Charging behavior is essential to understanding the real performance and evaluating the sustainability of battery electric vehicle (BEV) development and providing the basis for optimal infrastructure deployment. However, it is very hard to obtain the rules, due to lack of the data support, etc. In this research, analyzing the charging behavior of users with private charging piles (PCPs) is carried out based on the real vehicle data of 168 BEV users in Beijing, covering 8825 charging events for a one-year duration. In this study, the charging behaviors are defined by five indexes: the starting state of charge (SOC) of batteries, charging location selection, charging start time, driving distance, and duration between two charging events. To further find the influencing rules of the PCPs owning state, we setup a method to divide the data into two categories to process further analysis and comparison. Meanwhile, in order to better observe the impact of electric vehicle charging on the power grid, we use a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to predict the charging load of different users based on the analysis. In addition, an agent-based trip chain model (ABTCM), a multinomial logistic regression (MLR), and a machine learning algorithm (MLA) approach are proposed to analyze the charging behavior. The results show that with 40% or lower charging start SOC, the proportion of users without PCPs (weekday: 55.9%; weekend: 59.9%) is larger than users with PCPs (weekday: 45.5%; weekend: 42.6%). Meanwhile, users without PCPs have a certain decrease in the range of 60–80% charging start SOC. The median charging time duration is 51.44 h for users with PCPs and is 17.25 h for users without PCPs. The charging peak effect is evident, and the two types of users have different power consumption distributions. Due to the existence of PCPs, users have lower mileage anxiety and more diverse charging time choices. The analysis results and method can provide a basis for optimal deployment and allocation of charging infrastructure, and to make suitable incentive policies for changing the charging behavior, targeting the carbon neutral objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Staggered-peak production (SP)—a measure to halt industrial production in the heating season—has been implemented in North China Plain to alleviate air pollution. We compared the variations of PM1 composition in Beijing during the SP period in the 2016 heating season (SPhs) with those in the normal production (NP) periods during the 2015 heating season (NPhs) and 2016 non-heating season (NPnhs) to investigate the effectiveness of SP. The PM1 mass concentration decreased from 70.0 ± 54.4 μg m−3 in NPhs to 53.0 ± 56.4 μg m−3 in SPhs, with prominent reductions in primary emissions. However, the fraction of nitrate during SPhs (20.2%) was roughly twice that during NPhs (12.7%) despite a large decrease of NOx, suggesting an efficient transformation of NOx to nitrate during the SP period. This is consistent with the increase of oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA), which almost doubled from NPhs (22.5%) to SPhs (43.0%) in the total organic aerosol (OA) fraction, highlighting efficient secondary formation during SP. The PM1 loading was similar between SPhs (53.0 ± 56.4 μg m−3) and NPnhs (50.7 ± 49.4 μg m−3), indicating a smaller difference in PM pollution between heating and non-heating seasons after the implementation of the SP measure. In addition, a machine learning technique was used to decouple the impact of meteorology on air pollutants. The deweathered results were comparable with the observed results, indicating that meteorological conditions did not have a large impact on the comparison results. Our study indicates that the SP policy is effective in reducing primary emissions but promotes the formation of secondary species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing data have been widely used in research on population spatialization. Previous studies have generally divided study areas into several sub-areas with similar features by artificial or clustering algorithms and then developed models for these sub-areas separately using statistical methods. These approaches have drawbacks due to their subjectivity and uncertainty. In this paper, we present a study of population spatialization in Beijing City, China based on multisource remote sensing data and town-level population census data. Six predictive algorithms were compared for estimating population using the spatial variables derived from The National Polar-Orbiting Partnership/ Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP/VIIRS) night-time light and other remote sensing data. Random forest achieved the highest accuracy and therefore was employed for population spatialization. Feature selection was performed to determine the optimal variable combinations for population modeling by random forest. Cross-validation results indicated that the developed model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2129.52 people/km2 and a R2 of 0.63. The gridded population density in Beijing at a spatial resolution of 500 m produced by the random forest model was also adjusted to be consistent with the census population at the town scale. By comparison with Google Earth high-resolution images, the remotely-sensed population was qualitatively validated at the intra-town scale. Validation results indicated that remotely sensed results can effectively depict the spatial distribution of population within town-level districts. This study provides a valuable reference for urban planning, public health and disaster prevention in Beijing, and a reference for population mapping in other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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