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We present relativistic magnetohydrodynamic modelling of jets running into hydrostatic, spherically symmetric cluster atmospheres. For the first time in a numerical simulation, we present model cluster atmospheres based upon the universal pressure profile (UPP), incorporating a temperature profile for a 'typical' self-similar atmosphere described by only one parameter – M 500. We explore a comprehensive range of realistic atmospheres and jet powers and derive dynamic, energetic, and polarimetric data which provide insight into what we should expect of future high-resolution studies of AGN outflows. From the simulated synchrotron emission maps which include Doppler beaming we find sidedness distributions that agree well with observations. We replicated a number of findings from our previous work, such as higher power jets inflating larger aspect-ratio lobes, and the cluster environment impacting the distribution of energy between the lobe and shocked regions. Comparing UPP and β-profiles we find that the cluster model chosen results in a different morphology for the resultant lobes with the UPP more able to clear lobe material from the core; and that these different atmospheres influence the ratio between the various forms of energy in the fully developed lobes. This work also highlights the key role played by Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in the formation of realistic lobe aspect ratios. Our simulations point to the need for additional lobe-widening mechanisms at high jet powers, for example jet precession. Given that the UPP is our most representative general cluster atmosphere, these numerical simulations represent the most realistic models yet for spherically symmetric atmospheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed 6122 environmental modelling papers published since 2005 to determine whether the number of citations each paper had received by September 2014 could be predicted with no knowledge of the paper's quality. A random forest was applied, using a range of easily quantified or classified variables as predictors. The 511 papers published in two key journals in 2008 were further analysed to consider additional variables. Papers with no differential equations received more citations. The topic of the paper, number of authors and publication venue were also significant. Ten other factors, some of which have been found significant in other studies, were also considered, but most added little to the predictive power of the models. Collectively, all factors predicted 16–29% of the variation in citation counts, with the remaining variance (the majority) presumably attributable to important subjective factors such as paper quality, clarity and timeliness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a previous study, Huang et al. used the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, one of the widely used solar wind models in the community, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind in the last solar cycle and found that the optimal Poynting flux parameter can be estimated from either the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. It was also found that the average energy deposition rate (Poynting flux) in the open field regions is approximately constant. In the current study, we expand the previous work by using GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind for the same Carrington rotations and determine if the results are similar to the ones obtained with ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. Our results indicate that similar correlations can be obtained from the GONG maps. Moreover, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 au solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the necessary components to perform catastrophe risk modelling is information on the buildings at risk, such as their spatial location, geometry, height, occupancy type and other characteristics. This is commonly referred to as the exposure model or dataset. When modelling large areas, developing exposure datasets with the relevant information about every individual building is not practicable. Thus, census data at coarse spatial resolutions are often used as the starting point for the creation of such datasets, after which disaggregation to finer resolutions is carried out using different methods, based on proxies such as the population distribution. While these methods can produce acceptable results, they cannot be considered ideal. Nowadays, the availability of open data is increasing and it is possible to obtain information about buildings for some regions. Although this type of information is usually limited and, therefore, insufficient to generate an exposure dataset, it can still be very useful in its elaboration. In this paper, we focus on how open building data can be used to develop a gridded exposure model by disaggregating existing census data at coarser resolutions. Furthermore, we analyse how the selection of the level of spatial resolution can impact the accuracy and precision of the model, and compare the results in terms of affected residential building areas, due to a flood event, between different models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A moist idealized test case (MITC) for atmospheric model dynamical cores is presented. The MITC is based on the Held-Suarez (HS) test that was developed for dry simulations on a flat Earth and replaces the full physical parameterization package with a Newtonian temperature relaxation and Rayleigh damping of the low-level winds. This new variant of the HS test includes moisture and thereby sheds light on the non-linear dynamics-physics moisture feedbacks without the complexity of full physics parameterization packages. In particular, it adds simplified moist processes to the HS forcing to model large-scale condensation, boundary layer mixing, and the exchange of latent and sensible heat between the atmospheric surface and an ocean-covered planet. Using a variety of dynamical cores of NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), this paper demonstrates that the inclusion of the moist idealized physics package leads to climatic states that closely resemble aquaplanet simulations with complex physical parameterizations. This establishes that the MITC approach generates reasonable atmospheric circulations and can be used for a broad range of scientific investigations. This paper provides examples of two application areas. First, the test case reveals the characteristics of the physics-dynamics coupling technique and reproduces coupling issues seen in full-physics simulations. In particular, it is shown that sudden adjustments of the prognostic fields due to moist physics tendencies can trigger undesirable large-scale gravity waves, which can be remedied by a more gradual application of the physical forcing. Second, the moist idealized test case can be used to intercompare dynamical cores. These examples demonstrate the versatility of the MITC approach and suggestions are made for further application areas. The new moist variant of the HS test can be considered a test case of intermediate complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models, derived from process understanding, are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts. Hindcast and future simulations provide comprehensive spatiotemporal estimates of climatology that are frequently employed within the environmental sciences community, although the output can be afflicted with bias that impedes direct interpretation. Post-processing bias correction approaches utilise observational data to address this challenge, although they are typically criticised for not being physically justified and not considering uncertainty in the correction. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian bias correction framework that robustly propagates uncertainty and models underlying spatial covariance patterns. Shared latent Gaussian processes are assumed between the in situ observations and climate model output, with the aim of partially preserving the covariance structure from the climate model after bias correction, which is based on well-established physical laws. Results demonstrate added value in modelling shared generating processes under several simulated scenarios, with the most value added for the case of sparse in situ observations and smooth underlying bias. Additionally, the propagation of uncertainty to a simulated final bias-corrected time series is illustrated, which is of key importance to a range of stakeholders, such as climate scientists engaged in impact studies, decision-makers trying to understand the likelihood of particular scenarios and individuals involved in climate change adaption strategies where accurate risk assessment is required for optimal resource allocation. This paper focuses on one-dimensional simulated examples for clarity, although the code implementation is developed to also work on multi-dimensional input data, encouraging follow-on real-world application studies that will further validate performance and remaining limitations. The Bayesian framework supports uncertainty propagation under model adaptations required for specific applications, providing a flexible approach that increases the scope of data assimilation tasks more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new generation of heterogeneous CPU/GPU computer systems offer much greater computational performance but are not yet widely used for climate modeling. One reason for this is that traditional climate models were written before GPUs were available and would require an extensive overhaul to run on these new machines. In addition, even conventional "high–resolution" simulations don't currently provide enough parallel work to keep GPUs busy, so the benefits of such overhaul would be limited for the types of simulations climate scientists are accustomed to. The vision of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) project is to create a global atmospheric model with the architecture to efficiently use GPUs and horizontal resolution sufficient to fully take advantage of GPU parallelism. After 5 years of model development, SCREAM is finally ready for use. In this paper, we describe the design of this new code, its performance on both CPU and heterogeneous machines, and its ability to simulate real‐world climate via a set of four 40 day simulations covering all 4 seasons of the year. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the design and development of a 3 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, which has been fully rewritten in C++ using the Kokkos library for performance portability. This newly rewritten model is able to take advantage of the state–of–the–science high performance computing systems which use graphical processor units (GPUs) to mitigate much of the computational expense which typically plagues high–resolution global modeling. Taking advantage of this high–performance we are able to run four seasons of simulations at 3 km global resolution. We discuss the biases, including the diurnal cycle, by comparing model results with satellite and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ground‐based site data. Key Points: Describes the C++/Kokkos implementation of the Simple Cloud–Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAMv1)SCREAMv1 leverages GPUs to surpass one simulated year per compute day at global 3 km resolutionHigh resolution improves some meso‐scale features and the diurnal cycle but large‐scale biases require improvement across all four seasons [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The positioning performance of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network real-time kinematic (NRTK) depends on regional atmospheric error modeling. Under normal atmospheric conditions, NRTK positioning provides high accuracy and rapid initialization. However, fluctuations in atmospheric conditions can lead to poor atmospheric error modeling, resulting in significant atmospheric biases that affect the positioning accuracy, initialization speed, and reliability of NRTK positioning. Consequently, this decreases the efficiency of NRTK operations. In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a fast and reliable NRTK positioning method based on sequential ambiguity resolution (SAR) of multi-frequency combined observations. This method processes observations from extra-wide-lane (EWL), wide-lane (WL), and narrow-lane (NL) measurements; performs sequential AR using the LAMBDA algorithm; and subsequently constrains other parameters using fixed ambiguities. Ultimately, this method achieves high precision, rapid initialization, and reliable positioning. Experimental analysis was conducted using Continuous Operating Reference Station (CORS) data, with baseline lengths ranging from 88 km to 110 km. The results showed that the proposed algorithm offers positioning accuracy comparable to conventional algorithms in conventional NRTK positioning and has higher fixed rate and positioning accuracy in single-epoch positioning. On two datasets, the proposed algorithm demonstrated over 30% improvement in time to first fix (TTFF) compared to conventional algorithms. It provides higher precision in suboptimal positioning solutions when conventional NRTK algorithms fail to achieve fixed solutions during the initialization phase. These experiments highlight the advantages of the proposed algorithm in terms of initialization speed and positioning reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases, so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations using ngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data. ngehtsim uses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multifrequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity of ngehtsim's predictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87* at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of ≲20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times—as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multifrequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT—can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87* and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper major machine learning (ML) tools and the most important applications developed elsewhere for numerical weather and climate modeling systems (NWCMS) are reviewed. NWCMSs are briefly introduced. The most important papers published in this field in recent years are reviewed. The advantages and limitations of the ML approach in applications to NWCMS are briefly discussed. Currently, this field is experiencing explosive growth. Several important papers are published every week. Thus, this paper should be considered as a simple introduction to the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection of salient objects in foggy scenes is an important research component in many practical applications such as action recognition, target tracking and pedestrian re-identification. To facilitate saliency detection in foggy scenes, this paper explores two issues. The construction of dataset for foggy weather conditions and implementation scheme for foggy weather saliency detection. Firstly, a foggy sky image synthesis method is designed based on the atmospheric scattering model, and a saliency detection dataset applicable to foggy sky is constructed. Secondly, we compare the current classification networks and adopt resnet50, which has the highest classification accuracy, as the backbone network of the classification module, and classify the foggy sky images into three levels, namely fogless, light fog and dense fog, according to different concentrations. Then, Residual Refinement Network (R2Net) was selected to train and test the classified images. Horizontal and vertical flipping and image cropping were used to enhance the training set to relieve over-fitting. The accuracy of the network model was improved by using Adam as the optimizer. Experimental results show that for the detection of fogless images, our method is almost on par with state-of-the-art, and performs well for both light and dense fog images. Our method has good adaptability, accuracy and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models of weather and climate need to compute grid-box-averaged rates of physical processes such as microphysics. These averages are computed by integrating subgrid variability over a grid box. For this reason, an important aspect of atmospheric modeling is integration. The needed integrals can be estimated by Monte Carlo integration. Monte Carlo integration is simple and general but requires many evaluations of the physical process rate. To reduce the number of function evaluations, this paper describes a new, flexible method of importance sampling. It divides the domain of integration into eight cate gories, such as the portion that contains both precipitation and cloud, or the portion that contains precipitation but no cloud. It then allows the modeler to prescribe the density of sample points within each of the eight categories. The new method is incorporated into the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS). The resulting method is tested on drizzling cumulus and stratocumulus cases. In the cumulus case, the sampling error can be considerably reduced by drawing more sample points from the region of rain evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimization of aircraft trajectories involves balancing operating costs and climate impact, which are often conflicting objectives. To achieve compromised optimal solutions, higher-level information such as preferences of decision-makers must be taken into account. This paper introduces the SolFinder 1.0 module, a decision-making tool designed to identify eco-efficient aircraft trajectories, which allow for the reduction of the flight's climate impact with limited cost penalties compared to cost-optimal solutions. SolFinder 1.0 offers flexible decision-making options that allow users to select trade-offs between different objective functions, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel, which optimizes trajectories under atmospheric conditions simulated by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. This paper focuses on the ability of the module to identify eco-efficient trajectories while solving a bi-objective optimization problem that minimizes climate impact and operating costs. SolFinder 1.0 enables users to explore trajectory properties at varying locations of the Pareto fronts without prior knowledge of the problem results and to identify solutions that limit the cost of reducing the climate impact of a single flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The single-column model, with its advantages of low computational cost and fast execution speed, can assist users in gaining a more intuitive understanding of the impact of parameters on the simulated results of climate models. It plays a crucial role in the study of parameterization schemes, allowing for a more direct exploration of the influence of parameters on climate model simulations. In this paper, we employed various methods to conduct sensitivity analyses on the 11 parameters of the Single Column Atmospheric Model (SCAM). We explored their impact on output variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and cloud cover, among others, across five test cases. To further expedite experimentation, we utilized machine learning methods to train surrogate models for the aforementioned cases. Additionally, three-parameter joint perturbation experiments were conducted based on these surrogate models to validate the combined parameter effects on the results. Subsequently, targeting the sensitive parameter combinations identified from the aforementioned experiments, we further conducted parameter tuning for the corresponding test cases to minimize the discrepancy between the results of SCAM and observational data. Our proposed method not only enhances model performance but also expedites parameter tuning speed, demonstrating good generality at the same time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is one of the biggest international efforts aimed at better understanding the past, present, and future of climate changes in a multi-model context. A total of 21 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) were endorsed in its sixth phase (CMIP6), which included 190 different experiments that were used to simulate 40 000 years and produced around 40 PB of data in total. This paper presents the main findings obtained from the CPMIP (the Computational Performance Model Intercomparison Project), a collection of a common set of metrics, specifically designed for assessing climate model performance. These metrics were exclusively collected from the production runs of experiments used in CMIP6 and primarily from institutions within the IS-ENES3 consortium. The document presents the full set of CPMIP metrics per institution and experiment, including a detailed analysis and discussion of each of the measurements. During the analysis, we found a positive correlation between the core hours needed, the complexity of the models, and the resolution used. Likewise, we show that between 5 %–15 % of the execution cost is spent in the coupling between independent components, and it only gets worse by increasing the number of resources. From the data, it is clear that queue times have a great impact on the actual speed achieved and have a huge variability across different institutions, ranging from none to up to 78 % execution overhead. Furthermore, our evaluation shows that the estimated carbon footprint of running such big simulations within the IS-ENES3 consortium is 1692 t of CO 2 equivalent. As a result of the collection, we contribute to the creation of a comprehensive database for future community reference, establishing a benchmark for evaluation and facilitating the multi-model, multi-platform comparisons crucial for understanding climate modelling performance. Given the diverse range of applications, configurations, and hardware utilised, further work is required for the standardisation and formulation of general rules. The paper concludes with recommendations for future exercises aimed at addressing the encountered challenges which will facilitate more collections of a similar nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air‐entraining whitecaps provide an important source of bubbles over the global oceans, yet the rate at which the associated air is entrained is not well known. This lack of understanding limits the ability to accurately parameterize bubble‐mediated gas exchange and sea spray aerosol flux. In this paper I present a model to predict the total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps and extend it to estimate the rate at which air is entrained per unit sea surface area. The model agrees well with existing models and measurements and can be forced by the rate at which energy is dissipated by the wavefield which can be routinely provided by spectral wave models. I then use the model to present the first distributions of the estimated total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps, as well as their rate of air entrainment and air degassing. Plain Language Summary: The amount of air in the oceans in the form of bubbles at any given time is not well known because of the difficulty associated with making in‐situ measurements. This lack of knowledge inhibits how well ocean‐atmosphere exchange processes that are driven by air and bubbles can be represented in climate models. In this paper, I present a new model to estimate the volume of air entrained by individual breaking waves called whitecaps, as well as how quickly the air is entrained into the oceans and how quickly it leaves the oceans when bubbles rise to the surface and burst. Key Points: A model for the entrainment of air by oceanic whitecaps is presented which agrees well with existing models and measurementsDistributions of the estimated volume of air entrained by individual oceanic whitecaps are presented for the first timeKey uncertainties in the air fraction and entrainment velocities of individual whitecaps remain due to a lack of measurements [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An array of atmospheric profile observations consists of three‐dimensional vectors representing pressure, temperature, and humidity, with each profile forming a continuous curve in this three‐dimensional space. In this paper, the Signature method, which can quantify a profile's curve, was adopted for the atmospheric profiles, and the accuracy of profile representations was investigated. The description of profiles by the signature was confirmed with adequate accuracy. The machine‐learning‐based model, developed using the signature, exhibited a high level of annual accuracy with minimal absolute mean differences in temperature and water vapor mixing ratio (<2.0 K or g kg−1). Notably, the model successfully captured the vertical structure and atmospheric instability, encompassing drastic variations in water vapor and temperature, even during intense rainfall. These results indicate the Signature method can comprehensively describe the vertical profile with information on how ordered values are correlated. This concept would potentially improve the representation of the atmospheric vertical structure. Plain Language Summary: The atmospheric profile can be visualized as a three‐dimensional curve representing pressure, temperature, and humidity. By utilizing the Signature method, we can measure and quantify the profile's curve, allowing for comprehensive modeling of the atmosphere. In this paper, we confirmed the accuracy of atmospheric profile representation using signatures and introduced the characteristics of signatures revealed through machine‐learning models. The description of profiles by the signature was confirmed with adequate accuracy. Moreover, the model demonstrated robust annual accuracy, with minimal temperature and water vapor discrepancies. It effectively captured the vertical structure and instability of the atmosphere, even during heavy rainfall, characterized by significant temperature and water vapor content fluctuations. Key Points: The utilization possibility of the Signature method for atmospheric profiles was confirmedBy utilizing the Signature method, we can measure and quantify the profile's curve, allowing for comprehensive modeling of the atmosphereThe machine‐learning model developed with the signature can predict the profiles with high annual accuracy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Design patterns provide a systematic way to convey solutions to recurring modeling challenges. This paper introduces design patterns for hybrid modeling, an approach that combines modeling based on first principles with data-driven modeling techniques. While both approaches have complementary advantages there are often multiple ways to combine them into a hybrid model, and the appropriate solution will depend on the problem at hand. In this paper, we provide four base patterns that can serve as blueprints for combining data-driven components with domain knowledge into a hybrid approach. In addition, we also present two composition patterns that govern the combination of the base patterns into more complex hybrid models. Each design pattern is illustrated by typical use cases from application areas such as climate modeling, engineering, and physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards and yet, quantifying their financial impacts remains a significant methodological challenge. It is therefore of high societal value to synthetically simulate TC tracks and winds to assess potential impacts along with their probability distributions for example, land use planning and financial risk management. A common approach to generate TC tracks is to apply storm detection methodologies to climate model output, but such an approach is sensitive to the method and parameterization used and tends to underestimate intense TCs. We present a global TC model (the UQAM‐TCW model thereafter) that melds statistical modeling, to capture historical risk features, with a climate model large ensemble, to generate large samples of physically coherent TC seasons. Integrating statistical and physical methods, the model is probabilistic and consistent with the physics of how TCs develop. The model includes frequency and location of cyclogenesis, full trajectories with maximum sustained winds and the entire wind structure along each track for the six typical cyclogenesis basins from IBTrACS. Being an important driver of TCs globally, we also integrate ENSO effects in key components of the model. The global TC model thus belongs to a recent strand of literature that combines probabilistic and physical approaches to TC track generation. As an application of the model, we show global hazard maps for direct and indirect hits expressed in terms of return periods. The global TC model can be of interest to climate and environmental scientists, economists and financial risk managers. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards and yet, quantifying their financial impacts remains a difficult task. Being able to randomly simulate TCs and their features (such as wind speed) with mathematical models is therefore critical to build scenarios (and their corresponding probability) for land use planning and financial risk management. A common approach is to simulate TCs by tracking them directly in climate model outputs but this often underestimates the frequency of intense TCs while being computationally costly overall to generate a large number of events. For these reasons, many authors have looked into alternative approaches that replicate key physical features of TCs but rather using statistical models that are much less computationally demanding. This paper therefore presents a global TC model that leverages the strengths of both statistical and climate models to simulate a large number of TCs whose features are consistent with the physics and observations. As an important global phenomenon that affects TCs globally, we also integrate in our model the effects of El Niño. The paper focuses on the methodology and validation of each model component and concludes with global hazard maps for direct and indirect hits. Key Points: We present a global tropical cyclone (TC) wind model built upon a climate model large ensemble that can be used for risk analysisWe integrate ENSO into our model since it is a strong driver of storm annual frequency, cyclogenesis, trajectories, and intensityWe present global hazard maps consistent with statistical features of TC components and coherent with a global climate model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a contribution to national strategic energy planning, recent developments in meteorological modeling and wind generation technologies have improved the representation of the spatio‐temporal features of wind. This paper describes an updated Italian Wind Atlas (Atlante EOLico ItaliANo [AEOLIAN]) released in the early 2000s. The objective of AEOLIAN is to guide future wind generation to accord with ambitious European greenhouse gas emission targets set for 2030 and 2050. AEOLIAN is the result of a collaboration effort between Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE) SpA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which jointly developed a novel approach combining high‐resolution numerical weather modeling with the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) statistical technique. This paper uses dynamical model runs with hourly output for 1990–2019 with 4 km horizontal grid spacing. For 2015–2019, an inner grid nest with 1.33 km horizontal grid spacing is used. The AnEn is then employed to temporally extend the 5 years of high‐resolution runs back through 1990–2014 to create a 30‐year dataset for Italy and surrounding marine areas. A thorough verification is carried out using 104 observational stations homogeneously distributed throughout the territory. Compared with other state‐of‐the‐art products, AEOLIAN provides enhanced accuracy over complex terrain thanks to higher horizontal resolution and the assimilation of observational wind data over the domain, which result in a reduction of model bias on complex terrain and a better reconstruction of the wind distributions. Finally, a new WebGIS interface (https://atlanteeolico.rse-web.it/) to explore AEOLIAN data is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1, as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement: Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1. Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that "all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming" is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion "that spatial t‐statistics rejects the data‐model agreement" is also not sustainable. Plain Language Summary: Comparisons of models and observations need to account from multiple sources of uncertainty in both the observations and due to the chaotic dynamics of the weather. The analyses in Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) do not take either of these issues into account and thus the conclusions in that paper are not supportable. Key Points: Scafetta (2022) contains errors in both of the statistical tests used that make the conclusions unsupportable [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is the purpose of this paper to document the NCAR global model topography generation software for unstructured grids. Given a model grid, the software computes the fraction of the grid box covered by land, the gridbox mean elevation, and associated sub-grid scale variances commonly used for gravity wave and turbulent mountain stress parameterizations. The software supports regular latitude-longitude grids as well as unstructured grids; e.g. icosahedral, Voronoi, cubed-sphere and variable resolution grids. As an example application and in the spirit of documenting model development, exploratory simulations illustrating the impacts of topographic smoothing with the NCARDOE CESM (Community Earth System Model) CAM5.2-SE (Community Atmosphere Model version 5.2 - Spectral Elements dynamical core) are shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numerical model based on Radial Basis Function-generated Finite Differences (RBFFD) is developed for simulating the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) within the Earth's atmosphere, represented by a 3-D variable coefficient linear elliptic PDE in a sphericallyshaped volume 5 with the lower boundary being the Earth's topography and the upper boundary a sphere at 60 km. To our knowledge, this is (1) the first numerical model of the GEC to combine the Earth's topography with directly approximating the differential operators in 3-D space, and related to this (2) the first RBF-FD method to use irregular 3-D stencils for discretization to handle the topography. It benefits from the mesh-free 10 nature of RBF-FD, which is especially suitable for modeling high-dimensional problems with irregular boundaries. The RBF-FD elliptic solver proposed here makes no limiting assumptions on the spatial variability of the coefficients in the PDE (i.e. the conductivity profile), the right hand side forcing term of the PDE (i.e. distribution of current sources) or the geometry of the lower boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the development, tuning and climate of PLASIM-GENIE, a new intermediate complexity Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (AOGCM), built by coupling the Planet Simulator to the GENIE earth system model. PLASIM-GENIE supersedes "GENIE-2", a coupling of GENIE to the Reading IGCM. It has been developed to join the limited number of models that bridge the gap between EMICS with simplified atmospheric dynamics and state of the art AOGCMs. A 1000 year simulation with PLASIM-GENIE requires approximately two weeks on a single node of a 2.1 GHz AMD 6172 CPU. An important motivation for intermediate complexity models is the evaluation of uncertainty. We here demonstrate the tractability of PLASIM-GENIE ensembles by deriving a "subjective" tuning of the model with a 50 member ensemble of 1000 year simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments) and the CMIP Historical Simulation (1850-near-present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP, (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble, and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and the CMIP Historical Simulation to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP Historical Simulation, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. The participation in the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs will be at the discretion of the modelling groups, and will depend on scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: (i) how does the Earth system respond to forcing?, (ii) what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?, and (iii) how can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models used to investigate impacts of climatic changes on spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics need to balance required accuracy with computational feasibility. To enhance the computational efficiency of these models, upscaling methods are required that maintain key fine-scale processes influencing vegetation dynamics. In this paper, an adjustable method - the dynamic two-layer classification concept (D2C) - for the upscaling of time- and space-discrete models is presented. D2C aims to separate potentially repetitive calculations from those specific to single grid cells. The underlying idea is to extract processes that do not require information about a grid cell's neighbourhood to a reduced-size non-spatial layer, which is dynamically coupled to the original two-dimensional layer. The size of the non-spatial layer is thereby adaptive and depends on dynamic classifications according to pre-specified similarity criteria. I present how D2C can be used in a model implementation on the example of TreeMig-2L, a new, efficient version of the intermediate-complexity forest-landscape model TreeMig. To discuss the trade-off between computational expenses and accuracy, as well as the applicability of D2C, I compare different model stages of TreeMig-2L via simulations of two different application scenarios. This comparison of different model stages demonstrates that applying D2C can strongly reduce computational expenses of processes calculated on the new non-spatial layer. D2C is thus a valuable upscaling method for models and applications in which processes requiring information about the neighbourhood constitute the minor share of the overall computational expenses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen emission and transport module in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 using the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5. In the online model environment where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production, pollen emissions are calculated based on the modelling of plant distribution, pollen production, species-specific phenology, flowering probability, and flux response to meteorological conditions. A pollen tracer model is used to describe pollen advective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition. The model is then applied and evaluated on a European domain for the period 2000-2010. To reduce the large uncertainties notably due to ragweed density distribution on pollen emission, a calibration based on airborne pollen observations is used. Resulting simulations show that the model captures the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe, and reproduce reasonably both the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering season and associated pollen concentrations measured over Europe. The model can explain 68.6, 39.2, and 34.3 % of the observed variance in starting, central, and ending dates of the pollen season with associated root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 4.7, 3.9, and 7.0 days, respectively. The correlation between simulated and observed daily concentrations time series reaches 0.69. Statistical scores show that the model performs better over the central Europe source region where pollen loads are larger. From these simulations health risks associated common ragweed pollen spread are then evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels. The total risk area with concentration above 5 grains m-3 takes up 29.5 % of domain. The longest exposure time occurs on Pannonian Plain, where the number of days per year with the daily concentration above 20 grains m-3 exceeds 30. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf seasonality impacts a variety of important biological, chemical and physical Earth system processes, which makes it essential to represent leaf phenology in ecosystem and climate models. However, we are still lacking a general, robust parametrisation of phenology at global scales. In this study, we use a simple process-based model, which describes phenology as a strategy for carbon optimality, to test the effects of the common assumption in global modelling studies that plant species within the same plant functional type have the same parameter values, implying they are assumed to have the same species traits. In a previous study this model was shown to predict spatial and temporal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI) well across the entire global land surface provided local grid cell parameters were used, and is able to explain 96% of the spatial variation in average LAI and 87% of the variation in amplitude. In contrast, we find here that a PFT level parametrisation is unable to capture the spatial variability in seasonal cycles, explaining on average only 28% of the spatial variation in mean leaf area index and 12% of the variation in seasonal amplitude. However we also show that allowing only two parameters, light compensation point and leaf age, to be spatially variable dramatically improves the model predictions, increasing the model's capability of explaining spatial variations in leaf seasonality to 70 and 57% of the variation in LAI average and amplitude respectively. This highlights the importance of identifying the spatial scale of variation of plant traits and the necessity to critically analyse the use of the plant functional type assumption in Earth system models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan (JMSJ) is a well-established journal in the field of meteorology and related sciences. The editorial board is committed to continuously improving the journal for authors, readers, and reviewers. In 2024, the JMSJ will publish its 102nd volume and will discontinue the note service for submissions. The journal has recently implemented minor reforms in the technical editing process. The JMSJ Award for 2023 was presented to authors who conducted novel research on important topics. The most accessed papers in 2023 included topics such as geostationary meteorological satellites and reanalysis data. The journal also organized three special editions on various topics. JMSJ authors are encouraged to use J- STAGE Data for archiving datasets related to their papers. The journal expresses gratitude to the meteorological research community for their support and looks forward to continued success in 2024. [Extracted from the article]

The first paper published in this SI, by Mazzeo et al. [[1]], used an air quality model, coupled online with a meteorological model, to simulate the impact of emission reductions on PM2.5 in the West Midlands region of the United Kingdom. Atmospheric dispersion and chemical transport models (CTMs) are a key tool in both atmospheric chemistry and environmental sciences. Liu et al. [[4]] analyzed the relationship between sandstorm periods and the transport and dispersion of particulate emissions from coal bases in northwest China, assisted by a backward trajectory analysis performed with an atmospheric dispersion model. [Extracted from the article]

Scenarios are central to fisheries and aquatic conservation research on climate change. Scenarios project future greenhouse-gas emissions, which climate models translate into warming projections. Recent climate research and global development trends have significantly changed our understanding of plausible emissions pathways to 2100 and climate sensitivities to emissions. Here, we review these developments and make recommendations for scenario use in fisheries and aquatic conservation research. Although emissions pathways are uncertain, recent research suggests that scenarios producing ∼3.4–4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by 2100 (e.g. scenarios SSP2-3.4 and SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5) might be most plausible. This corresponds to ∼2–3 degrees C global warming by 2100 with median climate sensitivities, or 1.5–4 degrees C considering climate-system uncertainties. Higher- and lower-emissions scenarios (e.g. RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) might be plausible and should be explored in research. However, high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, SSP3-7.0) seem implausible and should be used with clear rationales and caveats to ensure results are not misinterpreted by scholars, policymakers, and media. We analyse fisheries and aquatic conservation papers published from 2015 to 2022 in major journals, and find that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are the most commonly used scenarios, though RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 use has increased since 2020. Studies predominantly project quantitative rather than qualitative differences between these scenarios' impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An efficient, local, explicit, second-order, conservative interpolation algorithm between spherical meshes is presented. The cells composing the source and target meshes may be either spherical polygons or longitude-latitude quadrilaterals. Second-order accuracy is obtained by piecewise-linear finite volume reconstruction over the source mesh. Global conservation is achieved through the introduction of a supermesh, whose cells are all possible intersections of source and target cells. Areas and intersections are computed exactly to yield a geometrically exact method. The main efficiency bottleneck caused by the construction of the supermesh is overcome by adopting tree-based data structures and algorithms, from which the mesh connectivity can also be deduced efficiently. The theoretical second-order accuracy is verified using a smooth test function and pairs of meshes commonly used for atmospheric modelling. Experiments confirm that the most expensive operations, especially the supermesh construction, have O(NlogN) computational cost. The method presented is meant to be incorporated in pre- or post-processing atmospheric modelling pipelines, or directly into models for flexible input/output. It could also serve as a basis for conservative coupling between model components, e.g. atmosphere and ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At scales of ≈10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Mod15 elling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare our forecast errors with those of several GCM experiments (with and without initialization), and with other stochastic forecasts showing that even this simplest two parameter SLIM model is somewhat superior. In future, using a space-time (regionalized) generalization of SLIM we expect to be able to exploiting the system memory more extensively and obtain even more realistic forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the "pattern effect." To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation. Plain Language Summary: Many properties of the atmosphere are affected by the temperature of the ocean surface. Knowing how strong these effects are would help us to better predict global warming. The response to a given surface warming depends on where the warming occurs. To account for this, researchers sometimes simulate the response to individual patches of warming and then assume the response to an arbitrary warming pattern can be summed together from these patch responses. This is sometimes called the atmospheric Green's function method, and it works well at recreating the atmospheric response to historical temperature changes. We are organizing a Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP), in which participants will apply the method consistently for many climate models. This paper presents the GFMIP protocol. In the course of developing this protocol, we found that the atmospheric response to warming is not proportional in all cases: the response to surface warming is not the opposite of the response to surface cooling; warming twice as much doesn't cause twice as much of a response; and making a patch of warming twice as large doesn't cause twice as large a response. GFMIP will help us figure out how to account for this nonlinearity. Key Points: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) explores the atmospheric response to surface temperature patch perturbationsThis paper presents the GFMIP protocol, which was generated using insights from past studies and new sensitivity testsGreen's functions reconstruct the response to historical temperatures, but nonlinearities can affect responses to other warming patterns [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate mathematical models of meteorological forecasting based on the work of neural networks, which allow us to calculate presumptive meteorological parameters of the desired location on the basis of previous meteorological data. A new method of grouping neural networks to obtain a more accurate output result is proposed. An algorithm is presented, based on which the most accurate meteorological forecast was obtained based on the results of the study. This algorithm can be used in a wide range of situations, such as obtaining data for the operation of equipment in a given location and studying meteorological parameters of the location. To build this model, we used data obtained from personal weather stations of the Weather Underground company and the US National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Also, a Google remote learning machine was used to compare the results with existing products on the market. The algorithm for building the forecast model covered several locations across the US in order to compare its performance in different weather zones. Different methods of training the machine to produce the most effective weather forecast result were also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An earlier study evaluating dust life cycle in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) has revealed that the simulated global mean dust lifetime is substantially shorter when higher vertical resolution is used, primarily due to significant strengthening of dust dry removal in source regions. This paper demonstrates that the sequential splitting of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the model's time integration loop, especially the calculation of dry removal after surface emissions and before turbulent mixing, is the primary reason for the vertical resolution sensitivity reported in that earlier study. Based on this reasoning, we propose a revised numerical process coupling scheme that requires the least amount of code changes, in which the surface emissions are applied before turbulent mixing instead of before dry removal. The revised scheme allows newly emitted particles to be transported aloft by turbulence before being removed from the atmosphere, and hence better resembles the dust life cycle in the real world. Sensitivity experiments show that the revised process coupling substantially weakens dry removal and strengthens vertical mixing in dust source regions. It also strengthens the large-scale transport from source to non-source regions, strengthens dry removal outside the source regions, and strengthens wet removal and activation globally. In transient simulations of the years 2000–2009 conducted using 1 ∘ horizontal grid spacing, 72 vertical layers, and unchanged tuning parameters of emission strength, the revised process coupling leads to a 40 % increase in the global total dust burden and an increase of dust lifetime from 1.8 to 2.5 d in terms of 10-year averages. Weakened dry removal and increased mixing ratios are also seen for other aerosol species that have substantial surface emissions, although the changes in mixing ratio are considerably smaller for the submicron species than for dust and sea salt. Numerical experiments confirm that the revised coupling scheme significantly reduces the strong and non-physical sensitivities of model results to vertical resolution in the original EAMv1. This provides a motivation for adopting the revised scheme in EAM as well as for further improvements on the simple revision presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society. Plain Language Summary: To prepare society for the effects of future climate change, we need to know what the future climate will be like. In this paper we explain the method that is used to construct six different scenarios that describe possible future climates of the Netherlands. The scenarios make assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, and are based on the outcomes of climate models that simulate the response of the climate to these emissions. The KNMI'23 climate scenarios show that strongly reducing global emissions strongly reduces the expected changes in the climate of the Netherlands. In the scenario in which global emissions continue to rise until 2080, Dutch society will have to adapt to a much stronger increases in heat and precipitation extremes, increased risks of droughts with low river discharge in summer, and increased risk of flooding due to high river discharges in winter. In the coming years the climate scenario data will be used to evaluate what needs to be done to keep the country a safe place for people to live in and to thrive in, under changing climate conditions. Key Points: We present a methodology for the construction of regional climate scenarios using a storyline approach to partition uncertaintyResults from CMIP6 are reconstructed with a GCM‐RCM initial condition ensemble to produce high‐resolution scenario data for end‐usersSix scenario variants cover emission uncertainty (high, moderate, low) and uncertainty in the regional response (dry‐trending, wet‐trending) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth Cloud Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) is a satellite mission implemented by the European Space Agency (ESA) in cooperation with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to measure vertical profiles of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties together with radiative fluxes and derived heating rates. The data will be used in particular to evaluate the representation of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and associated radiative fluxes in weather forecasting and climate models. The satellite embarks four instruments: the ATmospheric LIDar (ATLID), the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), the Multi-Spectral Imager (MSI), and the Broadband Radiometer (BBR). The science data acquired by the four satellite instruments are processed on ground. Calibrated instrument data – level 1 data products – and retrieved geophysical data products – level 2 data products – are produced in the ESA and JAXA ground segments. This paper provides an overview of the data processing chains of ESA and JAXA and explains the instrument level 1 data products and main aspects of the calibration algorithms. Furthermore, an overview of the level 2 data products, with references to the respective dedicated papers, is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is changing the Earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose of investigating future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited-area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. Performance-based evaluation results are benchmarked against ERA5, with comparable performance between the free-running BARPA-R simulations and observationally constrained reanalysis interpreted as a good result. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, precipitation, and 10 m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1 ∘ C cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm per month in inland Australia. Recent trends in daily maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in precipitation show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Precipitation and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10 m winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. Secondly, the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Northwest Cloudband, and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extratropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a method for determining whether two vector time series originate from a common stochastic process. The stochastic process considered incorporates both serial correlations and multivariate annual cycles. Specifically, the process is modeled as a vector autoregressive model with periodic forcing, referred to as a VARX model (where X stands for exogenous variables). The hypothesis that two VARX models share the same parameters is tested using the likelihood ratio method. The resulting test can be further decomposed into a series of tests to assess whether disparities in the VARX models stem from differences in noise parameters, autoregressive parameters, or annual cycle parameters. A comprehensive procedure for compressing discrepancies between VARX models into a minimal number of components is developed based on discriminant analysis. Using this method, the realism of climate model simulations of monthly mean North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is assessed. As expected, different simulations from the same climate model cannot be distinguished stochastically. Similarly, observations from different periods cannot be distinguished. However, every climate model differs stochastically from observations. Furthermore, each climate model differs stochastically from every other model, except when they originate from the same center. In essence, each climate model possesses a distinct fingerprint that sets it apart stochastically from both observations and models developed by other research centers. The primary factor contributing to these differences is the difference in annual cycles. The difference in annual cycles is often dominated by a single component, which can be extracted and illustrated using discriminant analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the proliferation of geophysical models, particularly climate models, the increasing resolution of their spatiotemporal estimates of Earth system processes, and the desire to easily share results with collaborators, there is a genuine need for tools to manage, aggregate, visualize, and share datasets. We present a new, web-based software tool - the Carbon Data Explorer - that provides these capabilities for gridded geophysical datasets. While originally developed for visualizing carbon flux, this tool can accommodate any time-varying, spatially explicit scientific dataset, particularly NASA Earth system science Level III products. In addition, the tool's open-source licensing and web presence facilitate distributed scientific visualization, comparison with other datasets and uncertainty estimates, and data publishing and distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is often implicitly assumed that over suitably long periods the mean of observations and models should be comparable, even if they have different temporal sampling. We assess the errors incurred due to ignoring temporal sampling and show they are offsimilar magnitude as (but smaller than) actual model errors (20-60%). Using temporal sampling from remote sensing datasets (the satellite imager MODIS and the ground-based sun photometer network AERONET) and three different global aerosol models, we compare annual and monthly averages of full model data to sampled model data. Our results show that sampling errors as large as 100% in AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness), 0.4 in AE (Ångström Exponent) and 0.05 in SSA (Single Scattering Albedo) are possible. Even in daily averages, sampling errors can be significant. More-over these sampling errors are often correlated over long distances giving rise to artificial contrasts between pristine and polluted events and regions. Additionally, we provide evidence that suggests that models will underestimate these errors. To prevent sampling errors, model data should be temporally collocated to the observations before any analysis is made. We also discuss how this work has consequences for in-situ measurements (e.g. aircraft campaigns or surface measurements) in model evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 (7Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating crosstropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric Be7 distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II' GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) Be7 climatology constructed from ∼ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as clima tological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the Be7 simulations with observationally-derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at middle latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II0 meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate Be7 deposition fluxes at middle latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II0), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of Be7 corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on Be7 simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We further apply observational constraints to other global models including GFDL AM2 and GEOSChem (driven by GEOS3-DAS and GEOS5-DAS). We conclude that the observational constraints for Be7 and observed Be7 total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the global ozone (O3) chemistry, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100-500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use a recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Benefiting from the high resolution, the nested models better capture small-scale processes than the global model alone. In the coupling system, the nested models provide results to modify the global model simulation within respective nested domains while taking the lateral boundary conditions from the global model. Due to the "coupling" effects, the two-way system significantly improves the tropospheric O3 simulation upon the global model alone, as found by comparisons with a suite of ground (1420 sites from WDCGG, GMD, EMEP, and AQS), aircraft (HIPPO and MOZAIC), and satellite measurements (two OMI products). Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb in annual average afternoon O3. Regionally, the coupled model reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America, and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0-9 km) mean bias by 3-10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Simulation improvements are more significant in the northern hemisphere, and are primarily a result of improved representation of urban-rural contrast and other small-scale processes. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with enhancements by 5 % in the lifetimes of methyl chloroform (from 5.58 to 5.87 yr) and methane (from 9.63 to 10.12 yr), bringing them closer to observation-based estimates. Improving model representations of small-scale processes are a critical step forward to understanding the global tropospheric chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to study the imprints of solar-ENSO-geomagnetic activity on the Indian Subcontinent, we have applied the Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis to the tree ring temperature variability record from the western Himalayas. The data used in the present study are the Solar Sunspot Number (SSN), Geomagnetic Indices (aa Index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tree ring temperature record from western Himalayas (WH), for the period of 1876-2000. The SSA and wavelet spectra reveal the presence of 5 years short term ENSO variations to 11 year solar cycle indicating the influence of both the solar-geomagnetic and ENSO imprints in the tree ring data. The presence of 33-year cycle periodicity suggests the Sun-temperature variability probably involving the induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Our wavelet analysis for the SSA reconstructed time series agrees with our previous results and also enhance the amplitude of the signals by removing the noise and showing a strong influence of solar-geomagnetic and ENSO patterns throughout the record. The solar flares are considered to be responsible for cause in the circulation patterns in the atmosphere. The net effect of solar-geomagnetic processes on temperature record thus appears to be the result of counteracting influences on shorter (about 5-6 years) and longer (about 11-12 years) time scales. The present analysis thus suggests that the influence of solar processes on Indian temperature variability operates in part indirectly through ENSO, but on more than one time scale. The analyses hence provides credible evidence for teleconnections of tropical pacific climatic variability with Indian climate ranging from interannual-decadal time scales and also demonstrate the possible role of exogenic triggering in reorganizing the global earth-ocean-atmospheric systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well‐known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air‐sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale. Plain Language Summary: A significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) is widely recognized. However, this study found that the correlation between the two was significantly weakened in late winter during 1980–2001 while no such change was detected in early winter. Therefore, this paper will focus on the late winter and discuss the role of NAO spatial structure in the above correlation changes. When the NAO south center is located over the North Atlantic, both observations and the climate models indicate that the corresponding North Atlantic SST shows a significant tripole pattern. However, during 1980–2001, the NAO south center shift significantly eastward from the North Atlantic toward Western Europe (up to 20° longitude). At the same time, the NAO north center expanded eastward significantly. The eastward shift of the NAO results in the significant eastward shift of the turbulent heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Shift in the region of strong air‐sea interaction led to the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale and also provide implications for subseasonal‐seasonal predictions of Eurasian climate extremes. Key Points: The link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST weakened obviously during 1980–2001 late winter, which was not detected in early winterThe eastward shift of ∼20° longitude in NAO south center forced the strong air‐sea interactions region to shift in observations and CMIP6NAO's spatial shift in late winter caused the changes in the link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on climate anxiety is rapidly growing, with ongoing exploration of population prevalence, contributing factors, and mitigation strategies that transform anxiety into helpful action. What remains unclear is whether and how to delineate climate anxiety from mental ill health. A limited conceptualization of climate anxiety restricts efforts to identify and support those adversely affected. This paper draws on psychological and existential theories to propose a theoretical model of climate anxiety and coping, extending previous conceptualizations. The model theorizes that climate change evokes an existential conflict that manifests affectively as climate anxiety (and other emotional experiences), wherein cognitive and behavioral coping processes are activated. These processes fall on a continuum of adaptivity, depending on functional impact. Responses might range from meaningful engagement with activities that address climate change to maladaptive strategies that negatively impact personal, social, and occupational functioning. Applications of this model in research and practice are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over‐estimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a well‐known and persistent problem in most climate models. This study demonstrates the impact of a Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme on rainfall simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. It is found that this scheme in both 0.1° and 0.05° resolutions significantly reduces the wet bias through both local feedbacks and large‐scale dynamic process. Specifically, increased cloud water/ice content with this scheme reduces surface shortwave radiation, and consequently surface heat fluxes and evapotranspiration. This, in turn, dampens the large‐scale thermal effect of the TP and weakens the exaggerated monsoon circulation and low‐level moisture convergence. It is this large‐scale dynamic process that contributes the most (∼70%) to the wet bias reduction. Although this paper presents a modeling study, it highlights the cloud radiative feedback to the large‐scale dynamics and precipitation over the TP. Plain Language Summary: Despite numerous attempts to correct the overestimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in current global and regional climate models, the issue persists. This study applies the Gaussian Probability Density Function (GPDF) cloud fraction scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model at two different resolutions (0.1° and 0.05°) during a summer over the TP. The results show that the GPDF scheme significantly mitigates the precipitation overestimation, particularly in the high‐resolution modeling. We explored the physical processes, both local and remote, that contribute to this improvement. Specifically, an increase in cloudiness reduces the amount of radiation reaching the land surface. This decrease in surface radiative heating not only reduces local evaporation but also weakens the thermal effect of the TP. The latter is a major driver of the South Asian monsoon that conveys moisture to the TP, and its weakening reduces moisture convergence over the TP. Both the decreases in local evaporation and remote moisture convergence contribute to the alleviation of the precipitation overestimation, and the latter plays a dominant role. These findings provide a unique perspective for reducing the wet bias over the TP, focusing on the surface available energy and associated remote moisture processes. Key Points: The use of the Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme in high resolution greatly reduces wet bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during summerMore cloud water/ice with the scheme lessens TP's thermal effect, causing a weaker South Asian monsoon and moisture convergenceWet bias reduction is mainly governed by the decrease in remote moisture rather than local evapotranspiration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]