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The paper evaluates changes in the water temperature of the Vistula River – one of the longest rivers in Europe. Mean monthly and annual water temperatures from the period 1971–2017 for 11 stations along the entire length of the river revealed the increasing trends. The mean increase in water temperature in the analysed multi-annual period was 0.31 °C dec–1. In the majority of analysed stations, the key factor determining changes in the water temperature of the river was air temperature. The observed water warming in the Vistula River should be considered an exceptionally unfavourable situation in the context of importance of water temperature for a number of processes and phenomena occurring in river ecosystems. Given the scale of changes, fast measures should be undertaken to slow down the warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: River damming inevitably reshapes water thermal conditions that are important to the general health of river ecosystems. Although a lot of studies have addressed the damming's thermal impacts, most of them just assess the overall effects of climate variation and human activities on river thermal dynamics. Less attention has been given to quantifying the impact of climate variation, damming and flow regulation, respectively. In addition, for rivers that have already faced an erosion problem in downstream channels, an adjustment of the hydroelectric power plant operation manner is expected, which reinforces the need for understanding of flow regulation's thermal impact. To fill this gap, an air2stream-based approach is proposed and applied at the Włocławek Reservoir in the Vistula River in Poland. Results: In the years of 1952–1983, downstream river water temperature rose by 0.31 ℃ after damming. Meanwhile, the construction of dam increased the average annual water temperature by 0.55 ℃, while climate change oppositely made it decreased by 0.26 ℃. In addition, for the seasonal impact of damming, autumn was the most affected season with the warming reached 1.14 ℃, and the least affected season was winter when water temperature experienced a warming of 0.1 ℃. The absolute values of seasonal average temperature changes due to flow regulation were less than 0.1 ℃ for all the seasons. Conclusions: The impacts of climate variation, damming, and flow regulation on river water temperatures can be evaluated reasonably on the strength of the proposed methodology. Climate variation and damming led to general opposite impacts on the downstream water temperature at the Włocławek Reservoir before 1980s. It is noted that the climate variation impact showed an opposite trend compared to that after 1980s. Besides, flow regulation below dam hardly affected downstream river water temperature variation. This study extends the current knowledge about impacts of climate variation and hydromorphological conditions on river water temperature, with a study area where river water temperature is higher than air temperature throughout a year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of the research was to determine the conditions affecting ice phenomena, including the three-phase cycle of ice: expansion, retention and decay of the ice cover on selected rivers of the Baltic coastal zone in the Northern Poland (Przymorze region). The analysis has been elaborated for the years 1951–2010 against the backdrop of currently occurring climatic changes, with particular emphasis on the development and phase variability of the NAO. The article presents the impact of the variability in atmospheric circulation which has manifested in an increase in air temperature, over the last 20 years, on thermal conditions during winter periods in the South Baltic Coastal Strip. The increase in air temperature has contributed to an increase in the temperature of river waters, thus leading to a shortening of the duration of ice phenomena on rivers in the Przymorze region. The article also brings to light an increased occurrence of winter seasons classified as cool, and a disruption in the occurrence of periods classified as normal over the last 30 observed years. The research has demonstrated a significant dependence between the seasonal change in air temperature and the variability of thermal conditions of water, which has a direct impact on the variability of the icing cycle of rivers in the Przymorze region. The authors also show that the variability in forms of ice phenomena for individual river sections is determined by the local factors, i.e. anthropogenic activity, impact of urbanized areas or inflow of pollutants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The paper investigates the distribution properties of measurement series of river water temperatures for the lowland River Note'c and its tributaries (Western Poland), as well as air temperatures at different data time resolution levels (1987-2013). The aspect of distribution normality was examined in quantile plots, the series' stationarity was assessed with an augmented Dickey-Fuller test, while autocorrelation was studied using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. It was demonstrated that distributions of river water and air temperature series at different levels of analyses are generally close to normal but also display a certain skewness. Both daily temperature measurement series are stationary series. The periodic component accounts for about 93% (water temperature) and 77% (air temperature) of the daily variability of the variable, while the random factor equals 6-7% and 22%, respectively. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model confirmed a clear annual seasonality in temperature distribution and indicated the long memory of the autoregressive process AR (2-4). The temperature prediction performed on the basis of a 4th-order Fourier series is consistent with the course of historical data. In the multiannual period 1987-2013, particularly high maximum temperatures were recorded for the Upper Notec in the summer half-years (28.4 °C); these are related to anthropogenic factors and increase the threat to the existence of cyprinids and salmonids. The thermal anomalies identified in the River Notec clearly point to the necessity of intensifying the monitoring of its waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of changes in the ice phenomena (IP) in rivers is a significant element of analyses of hydrological regime features, of the risk of occurrence of ice jam floods, and of the ecological effects of river icing (RI). The research here conducted aimed to estimate the temporal and spatial changes in the IP in a lowland river in the temperate climate (the Noteć River, Poland, Central Europe), depending on air temperature (TA) and water temperature (TW) during the multi-annual period of 1987–2013. Analyses were performed of IP change trends in three RI phases: freezing, when there appears stranded ice (SI), frazil ice (FI), or stranded ice with frazil ice (SI–FI); the phase of stable ice cover (IC) and floating ice (FoI); and the phase of stranded ice with floating ice (SI–FoI), frazil ice with floating ice (FI–FoI), and ice jams (IJs). Estimation of changes in IP in connection with TA and TW made use of the regression model for count data with a negative binomial distribution and of the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The analysis of the multi-annual change tendency of TA and TW utilized a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test for detecting monotonic trends with Yue–Pilon correction (MK–YP). Between two and seven types of IP were registered at individual water gauges, while differences were simultaneously demonstrated in their change trends over the researched period. The use of the Vuong test confirmed the greater effectiveness of estimates for the zero-inflated model than for the temporal trend model, thanks to which an increase in the probability of occurrence of the SI phenomenon in the immediate future was determined; this, together with FI, was found to be the most frequently occurring IP in rivers in the temperate climate. The models confirmed that TA is the best estimator for the evaluation of trends of the occurrence of IC. It was shown that the predictive strength of models increases when thermal conditions are taken into consideration, but it is not always statistically significant. In all probability, this points to the impact of local factors (changes in bed and valley morphology and anthropogenic pressure) that are active regardless of thermal conditions and modify the features of the thermal-ice regime of rivers at specific spatial locations. The results of research confirm the effectiveness of compilating a few models for the estimation of the dependence of IP trends on air and water temperature in a river. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study determined water temperature trends of rivers in Poland in the period 1971–2015, and also their spatial and temporal patterns. The analysis covered daily water temperature of 53 rivers recorded at 94 water gauge stations and air temperature at 43 meteorological stations. Average monthly, annual, seasonal and maximum annual tendencies of temperature change were calculated using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. Regional patterns of water temperature change were determined on the basis of Ward's hierarchical grouping for 16 correlation coefficients of average annual water temperature in successive 30-year sub-periods of the multi-annual period of 1971–2015. Moreover, regularities in monthly temperature trends in the annual cycle were identified using 12 monthly values obtained from the M–K Z test. The majority of average annual air and water temperature series demonstrate statistically significant positive trends. In three seasons: spring, summer and autumn, upward tendencies of temperature were detected at 70%–90% of the investigated water gauges. In 82% of the analysed rivers, similarity to the tendencies of change of monthly air temperature was concluded, with the climatic factor being recognised as of decisive importance for the changes in water thermal characteristics of the majority of rivers in Poland. In the winter months, positive trends of temperature were considerably weaker and in general statistically insignificant. On a regional scale, rivers with a quasi-natural thermal regime experienced temperature increases from April to November. In the other cases, different directions of change in river water temperature (RWT) were attributed to various forms of human impact. It was also found that for the majority of rivers the average annual water temperature in the analysed 30-year sub-periods displayed upward trends, statistically significant or close to the significance threshold. Stronger trends were observed in the periods after 1980, while a different nature of water temperature change was detected only in a couple of mountainous rivers or rivers transformed by human impact. In the beginning of the analysed period (1971–2015), the average annual water temperature of these rivers displayed positive and statistically significant trends, while after 1980 the trends were negative. The detected regularities and spatial patterns of water temperature change in rivers with a quasi-natural regime revealed a strong influence of climate on the modification of their thermal regime features. Rivers characterised by a clearly different nature of temperature change, both in terms of the direction of the tendencies observed and their statistical significance, were distinguished by alterations of water thermal characteristics caused by human activity. The results obtained may be useful in optimising the management of aquatic ecosystems, for which water temperature is a significant indicator of the ongoing environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the results of an analysis of the impact of cumulative negative air temperature degree-days (CDD) on formation of ice cover on the typical lowland river in the moderate climate zone (River Noteć, western Poland). During the period 1987–2013 the occurrence of a series of 306 consecutive days of negative air temperatures was identified in relation to atmospheric circulation in the winter seasons, with a duration of 1–53 days. The longest CDD series occurred in 2010, while low air temperatures were particularly frequent in the year 1996 (−600 °C·d). The analysis showed that this phenomenon was most identifiable in December. Research made it possible to distinguish two types of circulation, which were conducive to the cumulation of CDD. Using the logistic regression model it was determined that the probability of ice cover occurrence increased most rapidly in the lower course (−70 °C·d), while the weakest interdependence was observed along the other sections. On average, a one-degree-day increase of CDD was connected with an increase in the probability of a permanent ice cover appearing of approximately 1.2–5.7%. The results obtained are of particular significance for identifying the thermal and circulatory factors determining the appearance of ice cover on the rivers of the Polish Lowlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]