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Reading primary research literature is an essential skill for all scientists and students on science degree programmes, however little is known about how researchers at different career stages interact with and interpret scientific papers. To explore this, we conducted a survey of 260 undergraduate students and researchers in Biological Sciences at a research intensive UK university. Responses to Likert scale questions demonstrated increases in confidence and skill with reading the literature between individuals at each career stage, including between postdoctoral researchers and faculty academics. The survey indicated that individuals at different career stages valued different sections of scientific papers, and skill in reading the results section develops slowly over the course of an academic career. Inexperienced readers found the methods and results sections of research papers the most difficult to read, and undervalued the importance of the results section and critical interpretation of data. These data highlight a need for structured support with reading scientific literature at multiple career stages, and for senior academics to be aware that junior colleagues may prioritise their reading differently. We propose a model for the development of literature processing skills, and consider the need for training strategies to help inexperienced readers engage with primary literature, and therefore develop important skills that underpin scientific careers. We also encourage researchers to be mindful of language used when writing papers, and to be more inclusive of diverse audiences when disseminating their work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperation among kin is common in animal societies. Kin groups may form by individuals directly discriminating relatives based on kin recognition cues, or form passively through natal philopatry and limited dispersal. We describe the genetic landscape for a primitively eusocial wasp, Polistes dominula, and ask whether individuals choose cooperative partners that are nearby and/or that are genetic relatives. Firstly, we genotyped an entire sub-population of 1361 wasps and found genetic structuring on an extremely fine scale: the probability of finding genetic relatives decreases exponentially within just a few meters of an individual’s nest. At the same time, however, we found a lack of genetic structuring between natural nest aggregations within the population. Secondly, in a separate dataset where ~2000 wasps were genotyped, we show that wasps forced experimentally to make a new nest choice tended to choose new nests near to their original nests, and that these nests tended to contain some full sisters. However, a significant fraction of wasps chose nests that did not contain sisters, despite sisters being present in nearby nests. Although we cannot rule out a role for direct kin recognition or natal nest-mate recognition, our data suggest that kin groups may form via a philopatric rule-of-thumb, whereby wasps simply select groups and nesting sites that are nearby. The result is that most subordinate helpers obtain indirect fitness benefits by breeding cooperatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many complex physical systems exhibit a rich variety of discrete behavioural modes. Often, the system complexity limits the applicability of standard modelling tools. Hence, understanding the underlying physics of different behaviours and distinguishing between them is challenging. Although traditional machine learning techniques could predict and classify behaviour well, typically they do not provide any meaningful insight into the underlying physics of the system. In this paper we present a novel method for extracting physically meaningful clusters of discrete behaviour from limited experimental observations. This method obtains a set of physically plausible functions that both facilitate behavioural clustering and aid in system understanding. We demonstrate the approach on the V-shaped falling paper system, a new falling paper type system that exhibits four distinct behavioural modes depending on a few morphological parameters. Using just 49 experimental observations, the method discovered a set of candidate functions that distinguish behaviours with an error of 2.04%, while also aiding insight into the physical phenomena driving each behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Semantic Link Network is a general semantic model for modeling the structure and the evolution of complex systems. Various semantic links play different roles in rendering the semantics of complex system. One of the basic semantic links represents cause-effect relation, which plays an important role in representation and understanding. This paper verifies the role of the Semantic Link Network in representing the core of text by investigating the contribution of cause-effect link to representing the core of scientific papers. Research carries out with the following steps: (1) Two propositions on the contribution of cause-effect link in rendering the core of paper are proposed and verified through a statistical survey, which shows that the sentences on cause-effect links cover about 65% of key words within each paper on average. (2) An algorithm based on syntactic patterns is designed for automatically extracting cause-effect link from scientific papers, which recalls about 70% of manually annotated cause-effect links on average, indicating that the result adapts to the scale of data sets. (3) The effects of cause-effect link on four schemes of incorporating cause-effect link into the existing instances of the Semantic Link Network for enhancing the summarization of scientific papers are investigated. The experiments show that the quality of the summaries is significantly improved, which verifies the role of semantic links. The significance of this research lies in two aspects: (1) it verifies that the Semantic Link Network connects the important concepts to render the core of text; and, (2) it provides an evidence for realizing content services such as summarization, recommendation and question answering based on the Semantic Link Network, and it can inspire relevant research on content computing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poor research reporting is a major contributing factor to low study reproducibility, financial and animal waste. The ARRIVE (Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments) guidelines were developed to improve reporting quality and many journals support these guidelines. The influence of this support is unknown. We hypothesized that papers published in journals supporting the ARRIVE guidelines would show improved reporting compared with those in non-supporting journals. In a retrospective, observational cohort study, papers from 5 ARRIVE supporting (SUPP) and 2 non-supporting (nonSUPP) journals, published before (2009) and 5 years after (2015) the ARRIVE guidelines, were selected. Adherence to the ARRIVE checklist of 20 items was independently evaluated by two reviewers and items assessed as fully, partially or not reported. Mean percentages of items reported were compared between journal types and years with an unequal variance t-test. Individual items and sub-items were compared with a chi-square test. From an initial cohort of 956, 236 papers were included: 120 from 2009 (SUPP; n = 52, nonSUPP; n = 68), 116 from 2015 (SUPP; n = 61, nonSUPP; n = 55). The percentage of fully reported items was similar between journal types in 2009 (SUPP: 55.3 ± 11.5% [SD]; nonSUPP: 51.8 ± 9.0%; p = 0.07, 95% CI of mean difference -0.3–7.3%) and 2015 (SUPP: 60.5 ± 11.2%; nonSUPP; 60.2 ± 10.0%; p = 0.89, 95%CI -3.6–4.2%). The small increase in fully reported items between years was similar for both journal types (p = 0.09, 95% CI -0.5–4.3%). No paper fully reported 100% of items on the ARRIVE checklist and measures associated with bias were poorly reported. These results suggest that journal support for the ARRIVE guidelines has not resulted in a meaningful improvement in reporting quality, contributing to ongoing waste in animal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before organizing mixed-mode data collection for the self-administered questionnaire of the Belgian Health Interview Survey, measurement effects between the paper-and-pencil and the web-based questionnaire were evaluated. A two-period cross-over study was organized with a sample of 149 employees of two Belgian research institutes (age range 22–62 years, 72% female). Measurement agreement was assessed for a diverse range of health indicators related to general health, mental and psychosocial health, health behaviors and prevention with kappa coefficients and intraclass correlation (ICC). The quality of the data collected by both modes was evaluated by quantifying the missing, ‘don’t know’ and inconsistent values and data entry mistakes. Good to very good agreement was found for all categorical indicators with kappa coefficients superior to 0.60, except for two mental and psychosocial health indicators namely the presence of a sleeping disorder and of a depressive disorder (kappa≥0.50). For the continuous indicators high to acceptable agreement was observed with ICC superior to 0.70. Inconsistent answers and data-entry mistakes were only occurring in the paper-and-pencil mode. There were no less missing values in the web-based mode compared to the paper-and-pencil mode. The study supports the idea that web-based modes provide, in general, equal responses to paper-and-pencil modes. However, health indicators based upon factual and objective items tend to have higher measurement agreement than indicators requiring an assessment of personal subjective feelings. A web-based mode greatly facilitates the data-entry process and guides the completing of a questionnaire. However, item non-response was not positively affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to complete multiple tasks concurrently is a common occurrence both daily life and in occupational activities, which can often include simultaneous cognitive and physical demands. As one example, there is increasing availability of head-worn display technologies that can be employed when a user is mobile (e.g., while walking). This new method of information presentation may, however, introduce risks of adverse outcomes such as a decrement to gait performance. The goal of this study was thus to quantify the effects of a head-worn display (i.e., smart glasses) on motor variability during gait and to compare these effects with those of other common information displays (i.e., smartphone and paper-based system). Twenty participants completed four walking conditions, as a single task and in three dual-task conditions (three information displays). In the dual-task conditions, the information display was used to present several cognitive tasks. Three different measures were used to quantify variability in gait parameters for each walking condition (using the cycle-to-cycle standard deviation, sample entropy, and the “goal-equivalent manifold” approach). Our results indicated that participants used less adaptable gait strategies in dual-task walking using the paper-based system and smartphone conditions compared with single-task walking. Gait performance, however, was less affected during dual-task walking with the smart glasses. We conclude that the risk of an adverse gait event (e.g., a fall) in head-down walking conditions (i.e., the paper-based system and smartphone conditions) were higher than in single-task walking, and that head-worn displays might help reduce the risk of such events during dual-task gait conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Data collection using paper-based questionnaires can be time consuming and return errors affect data accuracy, completeness, and information quality in health surveys. We compared smartphone and paper-based data collection systems in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study in rural Sudan. Methods: This exploratory pilot study was designed to run in parallel with the cross-sectional household survey. The Open Data Kit was used to programme questionnaires in Arabic into smartphones. We included 100 study participants (83% women; median age = 41.5 ± 16.4 years) from the BOLD study from 3 rural villages in East-Gezira and Kamleen localities of Gezira state, Sudan. Questionnaire data were collected using smartphone and paper-based technologies simultaneously. We used Kappa statistics and inter-rater class coefficient to test agreement between the two methods. Results: Symptoms reported included cough (24%), phlegm (15%), wheezing (17%), and shortness of breath (18%). One in five were or had been cigarette smokers. The two data collection methods varied between perfect to slight agreement across the 204 variables evaluated (Kappa varied between 1.00 and 0.02 and inter-rater coefficient between 1.00 and -0.12). Errors were most commonly seen with paper questionnaires (83% of errors seen) vs smartphones (17% of errors seen) administered questionnaires with questions with complex skip-patterns being a major source of errors in paper questionnaires. Automated checks and validations in smartphone-administered questionnaires avoided skip-pattern related errors. Incomplete and inconsistent records were more likely seen on paper questionnaires. Conclusion: Compared to paper-based data collection, smartphone technology worked well for data collection in the study, which was conducted in a challenging rural environment in Sudan. This approach provided timely, quality data with fewer errors and inconsistencies compared to paper-based data collection. We recommend this method for future BOLD studies and other population-based studies in similar settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

University scientific research ability is an important indicator to express the strength of universities. In this paper, the evaluation of university scientific research ability is investigated based on the output of sci-tech papers. Four university alliances from North America, UK, Australia, and China, are selected as the case study of the university scientific research evaluation. Data coming from Thomson Reuters InCites are collected to support the evaluation. The work has contributed new framework to the issue of university scientific research ability evaluation. At first, we have established a hierarchical structure to show the factors that impact the evaluation of university scientific research ability. Then, a new MCDM method called D-AHP model is used to implement the evaluation and ranking of different university alliances, in which a data-driven approach is proposed to automatically generate the D numbers preference relations. Next, a sensitivity analysis has been given to show the impact of weights of factors and sub-factors on the evaluation result. At last, the results obtained by using different methods are compared and discussed to verify the effectiveness and reasonability of this study, and some suggestions are given to promote China’s scientific research ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do highly productive researchers have significantly higher probability to produce top cited papers? Or do high productive researchers mainly produce a sea of irrelevant papers—in other words do we find a diminishing marginal result from productivity? The answer on these questions is important, as it may help to answer the question of whether the increased competition and increased use of indicators for research evaluation and accountability focus has perverse effects or not. We use a Swedish author disambiguated dataset consisting of 48.000 researchers and their WoS-publications during the period of 2008–2011 with citations until 2014 to investigate the relation between productivity and production of highly cited papers. As the analysis shows, quantity does make a difference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many results have been obtained when studying scientific papers citations databases in a network perspective. Articles can be ranked according to their current in-degree and their future popularity or citation counts can even be predicted. The dynamical properties of such networks and the observation of the time evolution of their nodes started more recently. This work adopts an evolutionary perspective and proposes an original algorithm for the construction of genealogical trees of scientific papers on the basis of their citation count evolution in time. The fitness of a paper now amounts to its in-degree growing trend and a “dying” paper will suddenly see this trend declining in time. It will give birth and be taken over by some of its most prevalent citing “offspring”. Practically, this might be used to trace the successive published milestones of a research field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some scholars add authors to their research papers or grant proposals even when those individuals contribute nothing to the research effort. Some journal editors coerce authors to add citations that are not pertinent to their work and some authors pad their reference lists with superfluous citations. How prevalent are these types of manipulation, why do scholars stoop to such practices, and who among us is most susceptible to such ethical lapses? This study builds a framework around how intense competition for limited journal space and research funding can encourage manipulation and then uses that framework to develop hypotheses about who manipulates and why they do so. We test those hypotheses using data from over 12,000 responses to a series of surveys sent to more than 110,000 scholars from eighteen different disciplines spread across science, engineering, social science, business, and health care. We find widespread misattribution in publications and in research proposals with significant variation by academic rank, discipline, sex, publication history, co-authors, etc. Even though the majority of scholars disapprove of such tactics, many feel pressured to make such additions while others suggest that it is just the way the game is played. The findings suggest that certain changes in the review process might help to stem this ethical decline, but progress could be slow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about how adverse events are summarised and reported in trials, as detailed information is usually considered confidential. We have acquired clinical study reports (CSRs) from the European Medicines Agency through the Freedom of Information Act. The CSRs describe the results of studies conducted as part of the application for marketing authorisation for the slimming pill orlistat. The purpose of this study was to study how adverse events were summarised and reported in study protocols, CSRs, and published papers of orlistat trials.Methods and Findings: We received the CSRs from seven randomised placebo controlled orlistat trials (4,225 participants) submitted by Roche. The CSRs consisted of 8,716 pages and included protocols. Two researchers independently extracted data on adverse events from protocols and CSRs. Corresponding published papers were identified on PubMed and adverse event data were extracted from this source as well. All three sources were compared. Individual adverse events from one trial were summed and compared to the totals in the summary report. None of the protocols or CSRs contained instructions for investigators on how to question participants about adverse events. In CSRs, gastrointestinal adverse events were only coded if the participant reported that they were "bothersome," a condition that was not specified in the protocol for two of the trials. Serious adverse events were assessed for relationship to the drug by the sponsor, and all adverse events were coded by the sponsor using a glossary that could be updated by the sponsor. The criteria for withdrawal due to adverse events were in one case related to efficacy (high fasting glucose led to withdrawal), which meant that one trial had more withdrawals due to adverse events in the placebo group. Finally, only between 3% and 33% of the total number of investigator-reported adverse events from the trials were reported in the publications because of post hoc filters, though six of seven papers stated that "all adverse events were recorded." For one trial, we identified an additional 1,318 adverse events that were not listed or mentioned in the CSR itself but could be identified through manually counting individual adverse events reported in an appendix. We discovered that the majority of patients had multiple episodes of the same adverse event that were only counted once, though this was not described in the CSRs. We also discovered that participants treated with orlistat experienced twice as many days with adverse events as participants treated with placebo (22.7 d versus 14.9 d, p-value < 0.0001, Student's t test). Furthermore, compared with the placebo group, adverse events in the orlistat group were more severe. None of this was stated in the CSR or in the published paper. Our analysis was restricted to one drug tested in the mid-1990s; our results might therefore not be applicable for newer drugs.Conclusions: In the orlistat trials, we identified important disparities in the reporting of adverse events between protocols, clinical study reports, and published papers. Reports of these trials seemed to have systematically understated adverse events. Based on these findings, systematic reviews of drugs might be improved by including protocols and CSRs in addition to published articles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basic color terms used in Mandarin Chinese have been controversial since first discussed by Berlin and Kay in 1969. Previous studies showed much inconsistency on what should be considered as basic color terms in Mandarin Chinese. In the present study, we investigated categories of color rather than merely the color terms used by Taiwanese native Mandarin speakers. Using samples conforming to the Berlin and Kay survey, various colors were chosen from a collection of Natural Color System (NCS) colored papers and mounted on a piece of neutral gray card. The card was then mounted on a touch-screen, under D65 illumination. Thirty-two single-character color related Mandarin terms were selected from a Chinese character database according to frequency of use. Participants were required to select the color sample that matched the term by pressing a virtual button on the touch screen. The results show that certain terms can be directly correlated to basic color terms in English, comparable with the results of Berlin and Kay’s original study and those that followed. However, some terms, such as Mo (墨 ink), Tie (鐵 iron), and Cai (菜vegetable), show a wide spread of term maps and inconsistent use among subjects. Principle component analysis (PCA) procedures were used to analysis the commodity of data among subjects. The findings suggest that the basic color categories among Mandarin Chinese speakers are similar to those found in the World Color Survey (WCS), but are represented by wide-spread and inconsistent color terms among speakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The safety of highly aggregated tourist crowds is a challenging and important issue. This paper not only provided a comprehensive analysis of the accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds but also determined the occurrence mechanism and coping paths. Based on the analysis of multiple cases, we found that the variable status of highly aggregated tourist crowds was the result of the interaction of three main elements: multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses. A series of factors interact and result in accidents, and the lack of a management response or a low-quality management response is the root cause of such accidents. A high-quality management response is a basic safety precaution for highly aggregated tourist crowds. Therefore, forming a virtuous circle of multisource pressure, state mutations and management responses is an effective path for coping with accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite malaria, malnutrition and anaemia being major public-health challenges in Cameroon, very little has been reported on the interaction between these interconnected health determinants. This study therefore sought to investigate the relationship between malaria, anaemia, nutritional and socio-economic status amongst under—ten children living in six localities within two health districts in the North Region of Cameroon. Methods: Accordingly, a cross- sectional survey was conducted during the peak malaria season in November 2014, in Pitoa and Mayo-Oulo Health Districts. Three hundred and sixty eight children aged 6months—10 years were enrolled. Structured questionnaires were used to assess socio-economic status. Anthropometric indices were taken using standard methods and nutritional status assessed by calculating Height for Age (HA), Weight for Age (WA) and Weight for Height (WH) z-scores to determine stunting, underweight and wasting respectively. Finger-prick blood samples were used to prepare thin and thick blood smears for microscopy. Whole blood was collected to determine the PCV and blood spots on filter paper were used to extract plasmodium DNA for speciation by PCR. Results: Overall prevalence rates of malaria, malnutrition and anaemia were 32.9%, 54.1% and 20.6% respectively. Stunting, underweight and wasting were detected in 56.9%, 63.5% and 34.8% of the children respectively. There was a significant association between malaria and malnutrition [OR = 1.89, (95% CI: 1.12–3.19); (p = 0.017)]. Malnutrition was also strongly associated with malaria status [OR = 2.07, (95% CI: 1.22–3.53); (p = 0.007)]. The prevalence rates of mild, moderate and severe anaemia were 8.1%, 9.2% and 3.3% respectively. Both malaria status and anaemia correlated with development index [OR = 0.75, (95% CI: 0.58–0.99); (p = 0.042)] and [OR = 1.45, (95% CI: 1.05–2.00); (p = 0.023)] respectively. Conclusion: Our findings show a synergistic relationship between malaria and malnutrition. Effective collaboration between malaria control and nutrition intervention programmes is essential for proper case management and improved socio-economic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internet and social media participation open doors to a plethora of positive opportunities for the general public. However, in addition to these positive aspects, digital technology also provides an effective medium for spreading hateful content in the form of cyberbullying, bigotry, hateful ideologies, and harassment of individuals and groups. This research aims to investigate the growing body of online hate research (OHR) by mapping general research indices, prevalent themes of research, research hotspots, and influential stakeholders such as organizations and contributing regions. For this, we use scientometric techniques and collect research papers from the Web of Science core database published through March 2019. We apply a predefined search strategy to retrieve peer-reviewed OHR and analyze the data using CiteSpace software by identifying influential papers, themes of research, and collaborating institutions. Our results show that higher-income countries contribute most to OHR, with Western countries accounting for most of the publications, funded by North American and European funding agencies. We also observed increased research activity post-2005, starting from more than 50 publications to more than 550 in 2018. This applies to a number of publications as well as citations. The hotbeds of OHR focus on cyberbullying, social media platforms, co-morbid mental disorders, and profiling of aggressors and victims. Moreover, we identified four main clusters of OHR: (1) Cyberbullying, (2) Sexual solicitation and intimate partner violence, (3) Deep learning and automation, and (4) Extremist and online hate groups, which highlight the cross-disciplinary and multifaceted nature of OHR as a field of research. The research has implications for researchers and policymakers engaged in OHR and its associated problems for individuals and society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we reexamined the typical analysis methods of a visuomotor sequence learning task, namely the ASRT task (J. H. Howard & Howard, 1997). We pointed out that the current analysis of data could be improved by paying more attention to pre-existing biases (i.e. by eliminating artifacts by using new filters) and by introducing a new data grouping that is more in line with the task’s inherent statistical structure. These suggestions result in more types of learning scores that can be quantified and also in purer measures. Importantly, the filtering method proposed in this paper also results in higher individual variability, possibly indicating that it had been masked previously with the usual methods. The implications of our findings relate to other sequence learning tasks as well, and opens up opportunities to study different types of implicit learning phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personal motivation is a key factor in the service of foster care, impending both on the welfare of the child and on the satisfaction of the carer. This paper explores the benefits, challenges and dilemmas involved in the job of professional (i.e. state-supported) foster carer in Romania–a country where the issue of child protection has drawn a great deal of international attention over the last thirty years. The principal hypothesis concerns whether the benefits, challenges and dilemmas identified by foster carers are influenced by the factors that led to their taking up this kind of work. Quantitative research was conducted using a questionnaire as the main tool. The paper takes a descriptive, cross-sectional and multifactorial approach. Sampling was carried out by self-selecting method, and the study involved 51 participants. The research project identified a statistically significant variation in the challenges and dilemmas reported by foster carers. Thus, the results of the study show that the majority of the carers indicate a primarily intrinsic motivation for their work. By way of conclusion, it is argued that social workers, operating in collaboration with multidisciplinary teams, can offer carers support in managing more difficult periods in the child–carer relationship, thus enhancing the sustainability of the foster care service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between phenotypic plasticity, e.g. learning, and evolution is an important topic both in Evolutionary Biology and Machine Learning. The evolution of learning is commonly studied in Evolutionary Biology, while the use of an evolutionary process to improve learning is of interest to the field of Machine Learning. This paper takes a different point of view by studying the effect of learning on the evolutionary process, the so-called Baldwin effect. A well-studied result in the literature about the Baldwin effect is that learning affects the speed of convergence of the evolutionary process towards some genetic configuration, which corresponds to the environment-induced plastic response. This paper demonstrates that learning can change the outcome of evolution, i.e., lead to a genetic configuration that does not correspond to the plastic response. Results are obtained both analytically and experimentally by means of an agent-based model of a foraging task, in an environment where the distribution of resources follows seasonal cycles and the foraging success on different resource types is conditioned by trade-offs that can be evolved and learned. This paper attempts to answer a question that has been overlooked: whether learning has an effect on what genotypic traits are evolved, i.e. the selection of a trait that enables a plastic response changes the selection pressure on a different trait, in what could be described as co-evolution between different traits in the same genome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Large numbers of young people die yearly due to homicide, but little is known about homicide during adolescence. Research primarily focuses on youth violence among young men and masks important gender-related factors inherent in the adolescent age group. Although young women are less likely to be victims of homicide, violence against women is an important form of violence experienced during adolescence. In this paper, we describe the prevalence of and gender difference in adolescent homicide in South Africa in 2009. Methods: We conducted a retrospective national mortuary-based study to identify all child homicides (boys and girls < 18 years) in 2009 in a proportionate sample of mortuaries. Victim, perpetrator and crime data were collected in three phases: cases were identified from the mortuary register, the autopsy report and from police interviews. In this paper we focus on the adolescent group, aged 10 to 17 years. Findings: We identified 674 (95% CI: 520–823) adolescent homicides for 2009, with more male (520) than female (154) homicides. This gender disparity increased as children aged, with the male homicide rate 27.9/100 000 population (95% CI: 20.3–35.5), nearly 5 times the female rate (4.5:1) of 6.5/ 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.7–8.2) in older adolescents (15–17 year old). Adolescent males were significantly more likely (61.2%) to die in a public space compared to female adolescents (39.3%) but more adolescent females (48.4%) died at home compared to adolescent males (32.9%). Adolescent females (42.1%) were mainly killed by a family member or intimate partner while adolescent males were predominantly (58%) killed by an acquaintance. Conclusion: We found a distinct gender pattern for adolescent homicide in South Africa. This pattern appears to be driven by gender norms that support violence. South Africa requires an investment in developing evidence informed interventions to reduce violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several lifetime distributions have played an important role to fit survival data. However, for some of these models, the computation of maximum likelihood estimators is quite difficult due to presence of flat regions in the search space, among other factors. Several well-known derivative-based optimization tools are unsuitable for obtaining such estimates. To circumvent this problem, we introduce the AdequacyModel computational library version 2.0.0 for the R statistical environment with two major contributions: a general optimization technique based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method (with a minor modification of the original algorithm) and a set of statistical measures for assessment of the adequacy of the fitted model. This library is very useful for researchers in probability and statistics and has been cited in various papers in these areas. It serves as the basis for the Newdistns library (version 2.1) published in an impact journal in the area of computational statistics, see . It is also the basis of the Wrapped library (version 2.0), see . A third package making use of the AdequacyModel library can be found in . In addition, the proposed library has proved to be very useful for maximizing log-likelihood functions with complex search regions. The library provides a greater control of the optimization process by introducing a stop criterion based on a minimum number of iterations and the variance of a given proportion of optimal values. We emphasize that the new library can be used not only in statistics but in physics and mathematics as proved in several examples throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classifying bank accounts by using transaction data is encouraging in cracking down on illegal financial activities. However, few research simultaneously use heterogenous features, which are embedded in the time series data. In this paper, a two route convolution neural network TRHD-CNN model, fed with two types of heterogeneous feature matrices, is proposed for classifying the bank accounts. TRHD-CNN adopts divide and conquer strategy to extract characteristics from two types of data source independently. The strategy is proved able in mining complementary classification characteristics. We firstly transfer the original log data into a directed and dynamic transaction network. On the basis of that, two feature generation methods are devised for extracting information from local topological structure and time series transaction respectively. A DirectedWalk method is developed in this paper to learning the network vector of vertices used for embedding the neighbor relationship of bank account. The extensive experimental results, conducted on a real bank transaction dataset that contains illegal pyramid selling accounts, show the significant advantage of TRHD-CNN over the existing methods. TRHD-CNN can provide recall scores up to 5.15% higher than competing methods. In addition, the two-route architecture of TRHD-CNN is easy to extend to multi-route scenarios and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of elasticities of substitution between inputs is a standard method for addressing the effect of a change in the mix of inputs used for production from a technical or cost standpoint. Most estimation methods use parametric production or cost functions or frontiers to estimate these elasticities. A potentially useful nonparametric alternative is data envelopment analysis (DEA). The purpose of this paper is to derive elasticities of input substitution for both technical and cost frontiers using DEA, extending the use of this approach in the field of economics and associated fields. The paper provides derivations for both Hicksian (production and cost frontier) and Morishima (cost frontier) elasticities of input substitution, as well as a parsimonious method for estimating them using DEA. The derivations are presented using an agricultural example form Kansas, USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floating catchment methods have recently been applied to identify priority regions for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) deployment, to aid in improving Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) survival. This approach models access as a supply-to-demand ratio for each area, targeting areas with high demand and low supply for AED placement. These methods incorporate spatial covariates on OHCA occurrence, but do not provide precise AED locations, which are critical to the initial intent of such location analysis research. Exact AED locations can be determined using optimisation methods, but they do not incorporate known spatial risk factors for OHCA, such as income and demographics. Combining these two approaches would evaluate AED placement impact, describe drivers of OHCA occurrence, and identify areas that may not be appropriately covered by AED placement strategies. There are two aims in this paper. First, to develop geospatial models of OHCA that account for and display uncertainty. Second, to evaluate the AED placement methods using geospatial models of accessibility. We first identify communities with the greatest gap between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. We then use this information to evaluate models for precise AED location deployment. Methods: Case study data set consisted of 2802 OHCA events and 719 AEDs. Spatial OHCA occurrence was described using a geospatial model, with possible spatial correlation accommodated by introducing a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior on the municipality-level spatial random effect. This model was fit with Integrated Nested Laplacian Approximation (INLA), using covariates for population density, proportion male, proportion over 65 years, financial strength, and the proportion of land used for transport, commercial, buildings, recreation, and urban areas. Optimisation methods for AED locations were applied to find the top 100 AED placement locations. AED access was calculated for current access and 100 AED placements. Priority rankings were then given for each area based on their access score and predicted number of OHCA events. Results: Of the 2802 OHCA events, 64.28% occurred in rural areas, and 35.72% in urban areas. Additionally, over 70% of individuals were aged over 65. Supply of AEDs was less than demand in most areas. Priority regions for AED placement were identified, and access scores were evaluated for AED placement methodology by ranking the access scores and the predicted OHCA count. AED placement methodology placed AEDs in areas with the highest priority, but placed more AEDs in areas with more predicted OHCA events in each grid cell. Conclusion: The methods in this paper incorporate OHCA spatial risk factors and OHCA coverage to identify spatial regions most in need of resources. These methods can be used to help understand how AED allocation methods affect OHCA accessibility, which is of significant practical value for communities when deciding AED placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Executives act based on their experiences, values, personality and personal interpretation of the situations which they face in their companies. Investigations in the field of Behavioral Corporate Finance have determined that there are some relations between CEOs’ personal traits and financial decisions of large companies, but these results are based on indirect personal trait measurements and on public companies. To see whether such relations also exist between CEOs’ personal traits and the financial structure of large private companies, we used psychometric tests to measure their level of optimism, risk attitude and affect heuristic, collected financial data for a period of fourteen years, and considered the economic situation of the country as a key factor in these relations. This paper reports the relationship of executives’ personal traits with the financial structure of large Spanish companies for the period 2001–2014. We observed that executives’ high optimism (and risk aversion attitude) is positively (negatively) related to long-term debt, whilst positive affect is directly associated to the financial leverage and short-term debt. This paper also reports a change of relations when taking into account the country’s economic situation. In effect, by considering this new variable, executives’ risk aversion is seen to be associated to financial leverage and short-term debt, whilst CEOs’ positive affect is linked to long-term debt. These relations are strongly moderated and they become statistically significant in a contracting economic period. In conclusion, the links between CEOs’ personal traits and financial structure of large private Spanish companies make sense when the effect of the economic situation is taken into account. Furthermore, the awareness of these links helps to understand the financial decisions taken within large Spanish companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years there has been increased attention to child neurodevelopment in studies on medication safety in pregnancy. Neurodevelopment is a multifactorial outcome that can be assessed by various assessors, using different measures. This has given rise to a debate on the validity of various measures of neurodevelopment. The aim of this review was twofold. Firstly we aimed to give an overview of studies on child neurodevelopment after prenatal exposure to central nervous system acting medications using psychotropics and analgesics as examples, giving special focus on the use and validity of outcome measures. Secondly, we aimed to give guidance on how to conduct and interpret medication safety studies with neurodevelopment outcomes. We conducted a systematic review in the MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane databases from inception to April 2019, including controlled studies on prenatal exposure to psychotropics or analgesics and child neurodevelopment, measured with standardised psychometric instruments or by diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorder. The review management tool Covidence was used for data-extraction. Outcomes were grouped as motor skills, cognition, behaviour, emotionality, or “other”. We identified 110 eligible papers (psychotropics, 82 papers, analgesics, 29 papers). A variety of neurodevelopmental outcome measures were used, including 27 different psychometric instruments administered by health care professionals, 15 different instruments completed by parents, and 13 different diagnostic categories. In 23 papers, no comments were made on the validity of the outcome measure. In conclusion, establishing neurodevelopmental safety includes assessing a wide variety of outcomes important for the child’s daily functioning including motor skills, cognition, behaviour, and emotionality, with valid and reliable measures from infancy through to adolescence. Consensus is needed in the scientific community on how neurodevelopment should be assessed in medication safety in pregnancy studies. Review registration number: CRD42018086101 in the PROSPERO database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By utilizing cognitive mapping and leveraging georeferenced text data, this paper aims to suggest a new visualization method that combines the advantages of both conventional and state-of-the-art research techniques to depict the collective identity of place in a single image. The study addressed two research questions: (1) Can crowd-sourced text data be utilized in representing place identity? (2) Can collective place identity be expressed in the form of a cognitive map? By confirming that text data gathered from social media effectively demonstrate people’s behaviors and perceptions related to places, we propose a novel method to create a visual representation of urban identity–a “crowd-sourced cognitive map”. In particular, to improve the conventional cognitive mapping method to depict the collective identity of a city, we draw cognitive maps of Bundang and Ilsan developed in the 1990s, as well as Songdo and Dongtan developed in the 2000s, just outside of the administrative boundaries of Seoul in Korea, through a computational method based on crowd-sourced opinions collected from social media. We open the possibility for the use of social media text data to capture the identity of cities and suggest a graphical image through which people without prior information could also easily apprehend the overall image of a city. The work in this paper is expected to provide a methodological technique for appropriate decision-making and the evaluation of urban identity to shape a more unique and imageable city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social networks influence health-related behavior, such as obesity and smoking. While researchers have studied social networks as a driver for diffusion of influences and behavior, it is less understood how the structure or topology of the network, in itself, impacts an individual's health behavior and wellness state. In this paper, we investigate whether the structure or topology of a social network offers additional insight and predictability on an individual's health and wellness. We develop a method called the Network-Driven health predictor (NetCARE) that leverages features representative of social network structure. Using a large longitudinal data set of students enrolled in the NetHealth study at the University of Notre Dame, we show that the NetCARE method improves the overall prediction performance over the baseline models—that use demographics and physical attributes—by 38%, 65%, 55%, and 54% for the wellness states—stress, happiness, positive attitude, and self-assessed health—considered in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduces structural diversity as a new approach to quantify the complexity of technologies. By modeling technologies as combinatorial networks, a measure of technological complexity is derived that represents the diversity of (sub-)network topologies in these networks. It is further argued that this measure can be empirically approximated with the Network Diversity Score (NDS). The paper also presents an application of this approach to European patent data from 1980 to 2015. On this basis, the measure of structural diversity is shown to replicate a number of stylized facts commonly associated with technological complexity: Complexity increases over time and younger technologies are more complex than older technologies. Complex technologies are also associated to larger R&D efforts and require more collaborative R&D activities. Lastly, when controlling for technologies’ size, technologies scoring high on structural diversity are also shown to concentrate in space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the levels of health system efficiency and their possible determinants across Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries using national-level data for those countries, as well as for other emerging and developed countries. The data are analyzed using data envelopment analyses and econometric advances that yield reliable estimations of the relationship between system efficiency and its potential determinants. We find that there is substantial room for efficiency improvements in the health system of most LAC countries. For example, LAC countries could improve life expectancy at birth by about five years on average at current public spending levels if they followed best practices. Furthermore, the paper assesses what factors amenable to policy act as the main possible levers for some countries to be able to translate a given level of health financing into better performance on access to care and health outcomes. Our econometric analyses suggest that efforts to increase health system efficiency could be focused in a few key policy areas associated with broader access to health services and better outcomes. These areas include general governance aspects, in addition to improvements in specific dimensions of the quality of health system institutions, notably stronger reliance on results-based management in the production of healthcare goods and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal movement encodes information that is meaningfully interpreted by natural counterparts. This is a behavior that roboticists are trying to replicate in artificial systems but that is not well understood even in natural systems. This paper presents a count on the cardinality of a discretized posture space—an aspect of expressivity—of articulated platforms. The paper uses an information-theoretic measure, Shannon entropy, to create observations analogous to Moore’s Law, providing a measure that complements traditional measures of the capacity of robots. This analysis, applied to a variety of natural and artificial systems, shows trends in increasing capacity in both internal and external complexity for natural systems while artificial, robotic systems have increased significantly in the capacity of computational (internal) states but remained more or less constant in mechanical (external) state capacity. The quantitative measure proposed in this paper provides an additional lens through which to compare natural and artificial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a method to estimate the market parameters modelled by an asymmetric jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Kou’s jump diffusion model while the market parameters refer to the market drift, the market volatility, the jump intensity on market price, and the rate of jump occurrence in a consistent manner throughout the entire paper. The model captures the asymmetric nature of the price fluctuation during up trend markets and down trend markets. The results are compared to conventional options to observe the impact of jump effects. The results from simulation show that the asymmetric jump diffusion model can estimate the fair prices of European call options and annuity better than the Black-Scholes model and the symmetric jump diffusion model proposed by Kou and Merton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose an Emotional Trigger System to impart an automatic emotion expression ability within the humanoid robot REN-XIN, in which the Emotional Trigger is an emotion classification model trained from our proposed Word Mover’s Distance(WMD) based algorithm. Due to the long time delay of the WMD-based Emotional Trigger System, we propose an enhanced Emotional Trigger System to enable a smooth interaction with the robot in which the Emotional Trigger is replaced by a conventional convolution neural network and a long short term memory network (CNN_LSTM)-based deep neural network. In our experiments, the CNN_LSTM based model only need 10 milliseconds or less to finish the classification without a decrease in accuracy, while the WMD-based model needed approximately 6-8 seconds to give a result. In this paper, the experiments are conducted based on the same sub-data sets of the Chinese emotional corpus(Ren_CECps) used in former WMD experiments: one comprises 50% data for training and 50% for testing(1v1 experiment), and the other comprises 80% data for training and 20% for testing(4v1 experiment). The experiments are conducted using WMD, CNN_LSTM, CNN and LSTM. The results show that CNN_LSTM obtains the best F1 score (0.35) in the 1v1 experiment and almost the same accuracy of F1 scores (0.366 vs 0.367) achieved by WMD in the 4v1 experiment. Finally, we present demonstration videos with the same scenario to show the performance of robot control driven by CNN_LSTM-based Emotional Trigger System and WMD-based Emotional Trigger System. To improve the comparison, total manual-control performance is also recorded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between women’s social class and their levels of self- and other-objectification. Two online studies comprising of multiple questionnaires were conducted: Study 1 examined the association between the social class (both objective and subjective) of 198 non-student British women and their self-objectification levels, while Study 2 turned towards the relationship between social class and other-objectification among 82 non-student British women. Our results indicated no apparent relationship between social class and each of the relevant objectification measures. As the first paper on the topic of class and objectification, it appears that there is no relationship observed between the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding why parenting programmes work or do not work, and for whom, is crucial for development of more effective parenting interventions. In this paper we focus on a specific component of Mellow Bumps: reflection on one’s own childhood/past/life. We explore how this component was implemented, how participants engaged with it, the facilitating and constraining factors shaping this, whether and how it appeared to work, or not, and for whom. The paper analyses data from the Process Evaluation of the Trial of Healthy Relationships Initiatives for the Very Early years, which is evaluating two antenatal interventions delivered to vulnerable women, one of which is Mellow Bumps. Data were collected from January 2014 to June 2018 for 28 groups, 108 participants and 24 facilitators in a comprehensive and rigorous Process Evaluation designed to complement the Outcome Evaluation. Data were gathered at various time points using multiple methods, and were synthesised to triangulate findings. The reflective component was implemented with fidelity and participants engaged with it to varying degrees, dependent largely on the coherence of the group. Patchy attendance compromised the coherence of some groups, with the development of rapport, which is key to delivering reflective exercises, more difficult when group composition varied from week to week. Where there was a coherent group, powerful mechanisms of change, leading to stress reduction, included: relief through unburdening, empowerment through support given and received, reduced isolation through sharing anxieties, and control through self-care advice. A minority of highly vulnerable mothers seemed not to benefit from the reflective exercises and were marginalised within their groups. In order to minimise potential harmful effects of such exercises, allocation of participants to groups should strive to maximise group homogeneity. More research is needed to explore how very vulnerable parents can be supported in attending parenting interventions from start to finish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the impact of a major life event–death–on the physical, psychological and social well-being of the deceased’s close friends. We utilised data from a large longitudinal survey covering a period of 14 years (2002–2015) consisting a cohort of 26,515 individuals in Australia, of whom 9,586 had experienced the death of at least one close friend. This longitudinal cohort dataset comprises responses to the SF-36 (health related quality of life measure) and allowed for analysis of the short and longer-term impacts of bereavement. In order to manage the heterogeneity of the socio-demographics of respondents who did/not experience a death event, we use a new and robust approach known as the Entropy Balancing method to construct a set of weights applied to the bereaved group and the control group (the group that did not experience death). This approach enables us to match the two groups so that the distribution of socio-demographic variables between the two groups are balanced. These variables included gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, personality traits, religion, relative socio-economic disadvantage, economic resources, and education and occupation and where they resided. The data show, for the first time, a range of negative and enduring consequences experienced by people following the death of a close friend. Significant adverse physical and psychological well-being, poorer mental health and social functioning occur up to four years following bereavement. Bereaved females experienced a sharper fall in vitality, suffered greater deterioration in mental health, impaired emotional and social functioning than the male counterparts up to four years after the death. The data show that the level of social connectedness plays an important role in bereavement outcomes. Specifically, we found that less socially active respondents experienced a longer deterioration in physical and psychological health. Finally, we found evidence that the death of a close friend lowered the respondent’s satisfaction with their health. Since death of friends is a universal phenomenon, we conclude the paper by reflecting on the need to recognise the death of a close friend as a substantial experience, and to offer support and services to address this disenfranchised grief. Recognising bereaved friends as a group experiencing adverse outcomes can be used internationally to prompt health and psychological services to assist this specific group, noting that there may be substantial longevity to the negative sequelae of the death of a friend. Facilitating bereaved people’s support networks may be a fruitful approach to minimising these negative outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The University of KwaZulu-Natal has introduced a new language policy requiring all students who have not done Zulu as a first (or second) language at school to complete a six-month course in Zulu as part of their undergraduate curriculum. Given that English is the medium of instruction that is being used for all their other courses, the time that these students have had to spend learning this new language may be adversely affecting the marks that they could be getting for their other courses. Having to do a course in Zulu is also preventing them from being able to take another course in their chosen area of study. If one were able to randomly assign students to the group who have to take the Zulu course, then any difference in performance between the two groups could be directly attributed to the new language policy that is being introduced at the university. Given the context of this paper, however, such a random allocation is not possible. Students who have not done Zulu at school have to eventually complete a course in Zulu before graduating. If this cohort differs (in any other way) from those who do not have to take this course, then any observed difference in overall performance between the two groups may be a result of these group differences rather than the new rule that has been implemented. Methodology: This paper uses regression adjustment and entropy matching to achieve an appropriate balance between the two groups. Having achieved this balance any difference in the overall performance between the two groups can then be attributed directly to the new language policy that has been implemented. Our results indicate, after matching, that a significant difference in performance between the two groups occurs with Black African Zulu home language speakers in particular not performing as well as students from the other race and language groups. The data came from the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the study has been approved by the University Ethics committee and Research committee. Results and conclusions: Using a weighted mean of marks to measure performance, the ATT estimates that result indicate that students in the treated group would all perform significantly better had they been allowed instead to enrol in the non-treated group. Furthermore, Zulu home language speakers, who are not actually forced to take this course, are significantly underperforming whether they have chosen to take this course in Zulu or not. Surprisingly, their underperformance is worse in the treated group. Because one would expect them to be scoring a higher mark for Zulu in this treated group, forfeiting the chance to take another course in their chosen area of study is clearly affecting the type of mark they could be getting for their other courses had they chosen to remain in the non-treated group. With English being the medium of instruction at this university, should the university not also consider introducing a compulsory course in English for these Zulu home language speakers? Females are doing better than males in both groups. The effect being stronger in the treated group suggests that females appear to cope better with the learning of a new language. Significant college effects are also being observed, suggesting that this new language rule possibly needs to be adjusted for the college a student wants to study in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of the deadline-constrained task scheduling in the cloud computing system, this paper proposes a deadline-constrained scheduling algorithm for cloud computing based on the driver of dynamic essential path (Deadline-DDEP). According to the changes of the dynamic essential path of each task node in the scheduling process, the dynamic sub-deadline strategy is proposed. The strategy assigns different sub-deadline values to every task node to meet the constraint relations among task nodes and the user’s defined deadline. The strategy fully considers the dynamic sub-deadline affected by the dynamic essential path of task node in the scheduling process. The paper proposed the quality assessment of optimization cost strategy to solve the problem of selecting server for each task node. Based on the sub-deadline urgency and the relative execution cost in the scheduling process, the strategy selects the server that not only meets the sub-deadline but also obtains much lower execution cost. In this way, the proposed algorithm will make the task graph complete within its deadline, and minimize its total execution cost. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed algorithm via the simulation experiments using Matlab tools. The experimental results show that, the proposed algorithm produces remarkable performance improvement rate on the total execution cost that ranges between 10.3% and 30.8% under meeting the deadline constraint. In view of the experimental results, the proposed algorithm provides better-quality scheduling solution that is suitable for scientific application task execution in the cloud computing environment than IC-PCP, DCCP and CD-PCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recidivism prediction context, there is no consensus on which modeling strategy should be followed for obtaining an optimal prediction model. In previous papers, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques were benchmarked on recidivism data with a binary outcome. However, two important tree ensemble methods, namely gradient boosting and random forests were not extensively evaluated. In this paper, we further explore the modeling potential of these techniques in the binary outcome criminal prediction context. Additionally, we explore the predictive potential of classical statistical and machine learning methods for censored time-to-event data. A range of statistical manually specified statistical and (semi-)automatic machine learning models is fitted on Dutch recidivism data, both for the binary outcome case and censored outcome case. To enhance generalizability of results, the same models are applied to two historical American data sets, the North Carolina prison data. For all datasets, (semi-) automatic modeling in the binary case seems to provide no improvement over an appropriately manually specified traditional statistical model. There is however evidence of slightly improved performance of gradient boosting in survival data. Results on the reconviction data from two sources suggest that both statistical and machine learning should be tried out for obtaining an optimal model. Even if a flexible black-box model does not improve upon the predictions of a manually specified model, it can serve as a test whether important interactions are missing or other misspecification of the model are present and can thus provide more security in the modeling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scabies is a common dermatological condition, affecting more than 130 million people at any time. To evaluate and/or predict the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions, disease transmission modelling can be used. Objective: To review published scabies models and data to inform the design of a comprehensive scabies transmission modelling framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions. Methods: Systematic literature search in PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library identified scabies studies published since the year 2000. Selected papers included modelling studies and studies on the life cycle of scabies mites, patient quality of life and resource use. Reference lists of reviews were used to identify any papers missed through the search strategy. Strengths and limitations of identified scabies models were evaluated and used to design a modelling framework. Potential model inputs were identified and discussed. Findings: Four scabies models were published: a Markov decision tree, two compartmental models, and an agent-based, network-dependent Monte Carlo model. None of the models specifically addressed crusted scabies, which is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and increased transmission. There is a lack of reliable, comprehensive information about scabies biology and the impact this disease has on patients and society. Discussion: Clinicians and health economists working in the field of scabies are encouraged to use the current review to inform disease transmission modelling and economic evaluations on interventions against scabies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Phlebotomine sand flies are vectors of human leishmaniases, important neglected tropical diseases. In this study, we investigated diel patterns of oviposition behavior, effects of visual cues on oviposition-site selection, and whether these affect the attraction of gravid Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli), the vector of old-world cutaneous leishmaniasis, to olfactory cues from oviposition sites. Methodology/principal findings: To evaluate these questions, we conducted a series of experiments using attraction and oviposition assays within free-flight test chambers containing gravid females entrained under a 14:10 hrs light:dark photoperiod. By replacing sticky-screens or moist filter papers every three hours, we showed that oviposition site search occurs mainly in the latest part of the night whereas peak oviposition occurs during the early part of the night. Behavioral responses to olfactory oviposition cues are regulated by time-of-day and can be disrupted by transient exposure to a constant darkness photoperiod. Gravid females, but not any other stage, age, or sex, were attracted to dark, round oviposition jars, possibly resembling rodent burrow openings. This visual attraction disappeared in the absence of an illumination source. Egg deposition rate was not affected by jar color. Olfactory cues had the strongest effect when the visual cues were minimal. Conclusion and significance: Our study showed, for the first time, that visual cues in the form of oviposition-site color, lighting level, and photoperiod are important in guiding the oviposition behavior of phlebotomine sand flies. Furthermore, such visual cues could modify the flies’ sensitivity to olfactory oviposition cues. Our results suggest that chemosensory and visual cues are complementary, with visual cues used to orient gravid females towards oviposition sites, possibly at long- to medium-ranges during crepuscular periods, while olfactory cues are used to approach the burrow in darkness and assess its suitability at close-range. Implications to sand fly control are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In economic analyses of HIV interventions, South Africa is often used as a case in point, due to the availability of good epidemiological and programme data and the global relevance of its epidemic. Few analyses however use locally relevant cost data. We reviewed available cost data as part of the South African HIV Investment Case, a modelling exercise to inform the optimal use of financial resources for the country’s HIV programme. Methods: We systematically reviewed publication databases for published cost data covering a large range of HIV interventions and summarised relevant unit costs (cost per person receiving a service) for each. Where no data was found in the literature, we constructed unit costs either based on available information regarding ingredients and relevant public-sector prices, or based on expenditure records. Results: Only 42 (5%) of 1,047 records included in our full-text review reported primary cost data on HIV interventions in South Africa, with 71% of included papers covering ART. Other papers detailed the costs of HCT, MMC, palliative and inpatient care; no papers were found on the costs of PrEP, social and behaviour change communication, and PMTCT. The results informed unit costs for 5 of 11 intervention categories included in the Investment Case, with the remainder costed based on ingredients (35%) and expenditure data (10%). Conclusions: A large number of modelled economic analyses of HIV interventions in South Africa use as inputs the same, often outdated, cost analyses, without reference to additional literature review. More primary cost analyses of non-ART interventions are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Test oracles are commonly used in software testing to determine the correctness of the execution results of test cases. However, the testing of many software systems faces the test oracle problem: a test oracle may not always be available, or it may be available but too expensive to apply. One such software system is a system involving abundant business processes. This paper focuses on the testing of business-process-based software systems and proposes a metamorphic testing approach for event sequences, called MTES, to alleviate the oracle problem. We utilized event sequences to represent business processes and then applied the technique of metamorphic testing to test the system without using test oracles. To apply metamorphic testing, we studied the general rules for identifying metamorphic relations for business processes and further demonstrated specific metamorphic relations for individual case studies. Three case studies were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. The experimental results show that our approach is feasible and effective in testing the applications with rich business processes. In addition, this paper summarizes the experimental findings and proposes guidelines for selecting good metamorphic relations for business processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to their simplicity and operating mode, magnetic loops are one of the most used traffic sensors in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). However, at this moment, their potential is not being fully exploited, as neither the speed nor the length of the vehicles can be surely ascertained with the use of a single magnetic loop. In this way, nowadays the vast majority of them are only being used to measure traffic flow and count vehicles on urban and interurban roads. This is the reason why we presented in a previous paper the double magnetic loop, capable of improving the features and functionalities of the conventional single loop without increasing the cost or introducing additional complexity. In that paper, it was introduced their design and peculiarities, how to calculate their magnetic field and three different methods to calculate their inductance. Therefore, with the purpose of improving the existing infrastructure and providing it with greater potential and reliability, this paper will focus on justifying and demonstrating the advantages offered by these double loops versus the conventional ones. This will involve analyzing the magnetic profiles generated by the passage of vehicles over double loops and comparing them with those already known. Moreover, it will be shown how the vehicle speed, the traffic direction and many other data can be obtained more easily and with less margin of error by using these new inductance signatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In this paper we perform a replication analysis of “Effect of a cash transfer programme for schooling on prevalence of HIV and herpes simplex type 2 in Malawi: a cluster randomised trial” by Sarah Baird and others published in “The Lancet” in 2012. The original study was a two-year cluster randomized intervention trial of never married girls aged 13–22 in Malawi. Enumeration areas were randomized to either an intervention involving cash transfer (conditional or unconditional of school enrollment) or control. The study included 1708 Malawian girls, who were enrolled at baseline and had biological testing for HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) at 18 months. The original findings showed that in the cohort of girls enrolled in school at baseline, the intervention had an effect on school enrollment, sexual outcomes, and HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. However, in the baseline school dropout cohort, the original study showed no intervention effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Methods: We performed a replication of the study to investigate the consistency and robustness of key results reported. A pre-specified replication plan was approved and published online. Cleaned data was obtained from the original authors. A pure replication was conducted by reading the methods section and reproducing the results and tables found in the original paper. Robustness of the results were examined with alternative analysis methods in a measurement and estimation analysis (MEA) approach. A theory of change analysis was performed testing a causal pathway, the effect of intervention on HIV awareness, and whether the intervention effect depended on the wealth of the individual. Results: The pure replication found that other than a few minor discrepancies, the original study was well replicated. However, the randomization and sampling weights could not be verified due to the lack of access to raw data and a detailed sample selection plan. Therefore, we are unable to determine how sampling influenced the results, which could be highly dependent on the sample. In MEA it was found that the intervention effect on HIV prevalence in the baseline schoolgirls cohort was somewhat sensitive to model choice, with a non-significant intervention effect for HIV depending on the statistical model used. The intervention effect on HSV-2 prevalence was more robust in terms of statistical significance, however, the odds ratios and confidence intervals differed from the original result by more than 10%. A theory of change analysis showed no effect of intervention on HIV awareness. In a causal pathway analysis, several variables were partial mediators, or potential mediators, indicating that the intervention could be working through its effect on school enrollment or selected sexual behaviors. Conclusions: The effect of intervention on HIV prevalence in the baseline schoolgirls was sensitive to the model choice; however, HSV-2 prevalence results were confirmed. We recommend that the results from the original published analysis indicating the impact of cash transfers on HIV prevalence be treated with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Up to 1.45 billion people currently suffer from soil transmitted helminth infection, with the largest burden occurring in Africa and Asia. Safe and cost effective deworming treatment exists, but there is a debate about mass distribution of this treatment in high prevalence settings. While the World Health Organization recommends mass administration of anthelmintic drugs for preschool and school-aged children in high (>20%) prevalence settings, and several long run follow up studies of an influential trial have suggested large benefits that persist over time, recent systematic reviews have called this recommendation into question. Methods and findings: This paper analyzes the long-term impact of a cluster-randomized trial in eastern Uganda that provided mass deworming treatment to preschool aged children from 2000 to 2003 on the numeracy and literacy skills of children and young adults living in those villages in 2010-2015. This study uses numeracy and literacy data collected seven to twelve years after the end of the deworming trial in a randomly selected subset of communities from the original trial, by an education-focused survey that had no relationship to the deworming study. Building on an earlier working paper which used data from 2010 and 2011 survey rounds, this paper uses an additional four years of numeracy and literacy data (2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015). Aggregating data from all survey rounds, the difference between numeracy scores in treatment versus control communities is 0.07 standard deviations (SD) (95% CI -0.10, 0.24, p = 0.40), the difference in literacy scores is 0.05 SD (95% CI -0.16, 0.27, p = 0.62), and the difference in total scores is 0.07 SD (95% CI -0.11, 0.25, p = 0.44). There are significant differences in program impact by gender, with numeracy and literacy differentially positively affected for girls, and by age, with treatment effects larger for the primary school aged subsample. There are also significant treatment interactions for those living in households with more treatment-eligible children. There is no evidence of differential treatment effects on age at program eligibility or number of years of program eligibility. Conclusions: Mass deworming of preschool aged children in high prevalence communities in Uganda resulted in no statistically significant gains in numeracy or literacy 7-12 years after program completion. Point estimates were positive but imprecise; the study lacked sufficient power to rule out substantial positive effects or more modest negative effects. However, there is suggestive evidence that deworming was relatively more beneficial for girls, primary school aged children, and children living in households with other treated children. Research approval: As this analysis was conducted on secondary data which is publicly available, no research approval was sought or received. All individual records were anonymized by the data provider prior to public release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In order to make informed decisions about how best to support children and young people with disabilities, effective strategies that facilitate active and meaningful participation in school are required. Clinical factors, diagnosis or impairments somewhat helpful in determining what should be provided in interventions. However, clinical factors alone will not offer a clear view of how to support participation. It is helpful then to look at wider psychosocial and environmental factors. The aim of this review was to synthesise evidence of psychosocial and environmental factors associated with school participation of 4–12 year old children with disabilities to inform the development of participation-fostering interventions. Methods: A systematic search and synthesis using realist methods was conducted of published research. Papers had to include consideration of psychosocial and/or environment factors for school participation of children with disabilities. The review was completed in accordance with the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Papers were identified via Boolean search of the electronic databases MEDLINE, CINAHL, PhycINFO and ERIC (January 2006-October 2018). Appraisal focussed on contributions in terms of whether the articles are appropriate for the review (relevance) and research quality (rigour). Data were analyzed using content and thematic analysis methods using a realist framework. A narrative synthesis of results was reported. Results and implications: We identified 1828 papers in the initial search. Seventy two papers were included in the final synthesis. Synthesis of findings led to three overarching mechanisms representing psychosocial factors for children (1) identity (2) competence and (3) experience of mind and body. Environmental aspects (context) compromised five interrelated areas: (1) structures and organization, (2) peers, (3) adults, (4) space and (5) objects. Our synthesis provides insights on how professionals may organize efforts to improve children’s participation. Consideration of these findings will help to proactively deal with suboptimal participation outcomes. Development of theoretically determined assessments and interventions for management of school participation are now required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding expression levels of proteins and their interactions is a key factor to diagnose and explain the Down syndrome which can be considered as the most prevalent reason of intellectual disability in human beings. In the previous studies, the expression levels of 77 proteins obtained from normal genotype control mice and from trisomic Ts65Dn mice have been analyzed after training in contextual fear conditioning with and without injection of the memantine drug using statistical methods and machine learning techniques. Recent studies have also pointed out that there may be a linkage between the Down syndrome and the immune system. Thus, the research presented in this paper aim at in silico identification of proteins which are significant to the learning process and the immune system and to derive the most accurate model for classification of mice. In this paper, the features are selected by implementing forward feature selection method after preprocessing step of the dataset. Later, deep neural network, gradient boosting tree, support vector machine and random forest classification methods are implemented to identify the accuracy. It is observed that the selected feature subsets not only yield higher accuracy classification results but also are composed of protein responses which are important for the learning and memory process and the immune system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]