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Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality is an important policy in the current global response to climate change and has been widely recognized by various industries. In the process of promoting carbon neutrality, new energy plays a pivotal role. In this study, the definition and connotation of new energy and its role and specific operation in the energy transition of carbon neutrality are firstly explained. Promoting new energy development requires significant green and low-carbon investments. Taking China as an example, this paper analyzes the opportunities brought by the carbon neutral process to the field of green finance and analyzes the main features and development trends of green finance in China at present. Then this paper proposes policy recommendations to strengthen the development of green finance in China in terms of improving the green financial policy system, enhancing the supply capacity of green financial services, and optimizing the supporting environment for green financial development. Finally, this paper analyzes the measures and experiences of the United States in promoting low-carbon development and proposes countermeasures for China's low-carbon development on the basis of the five major relationships that need attention in China's carbon-neutral process. That is, strengthen the top-level design and improve the regulatory policy system; optimize the energy structure and increase the proportion of clean energy; optimize the industrial structure and reduce energy consumption in key industries; build a complete low-carbon technology system and promote low-carbon technology research and development and demonstration applications, and encourage local conditions to explore low-carbon development paths. The development of green finance can contribute to the advancement of new energy technologies, thus contributing to the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on agriculture so it is necessary to adapt to climate change to promote agricultural transformation and sustainable development. The key to achieving such a goal is to promote the development of climate smart agriculture (CSA) against the background of climate change. The paper first uses official statistical data to evaluate the effect of climate smart agricultural technology project, and then uses the statistical method of questionnaire survey to further investigate and statistically analyze the implementation effect of climate smart agricultural technology project in the pilot area. Further, semi-structured interview method is employed to conduct more in-depth investigation and analysis on some main topics on the basis of preliminary investigation and statistical analysis. The interviews focus on the environmental and economic effects of project practice, the difficulties of smallholder farmers' technology extension, and the farmers' willingness to participate. The study indicates that to promote climate smart agriculture technologies is an effective way to solve agricultural problem in practice under the background of climate change, and can achieve at least three benefits. The first is to reduce production costs, which can be reduced by 10% to 15% in terms of fertilizers and pesticides alone. The second is to improve productivity, and preliminary results show that food production can be increased by more than 5%. Finally, it has carbon sequestration capabilities and can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, the promotion of climate smart agriculture (CSA) technologies helps to solve the problem of agricultural transformation and sustainable development. To this end, it is necessary to drive the transformation and optimization of regional agricultural ecological environment and production system, and promote the innovation and extension of CSA technology. In addition, some soft conditions (e.g., talent, system and technology, etc.) and hard conditions (e.g., modern agricultural supply chain, agricultural big data and the Internet of Things, etc.), must be created, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump's coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Most existing studies on environmental regulations and the location dynamics of pollution-intensive industries regard new environmental procedures as an incremental development process, and neglect the influence of sudden changes in environmental regulations triggered by a pollution crisis. Using the drinking water crisis in the Taihu Lake Watershed (TLW) in 2007 as an example, this paper examines the spatial behavior of pollution-intensive firms across the TLW, and pays special attention to the regional differences in the effectiveness of enforcing environmental regulations. We find that the pollution haven hypothesis works efficiently in the short term after an unexpected pollution crisis because of the immediate strengthening of environmental regulations by local governments under pressure from the central government and the public. However, the effect of strict environmental policies was compromised by differences in the effectiveness of policy enforcement across the watershed. Specifically, when other regions (for example, Huzhou) were compared with Wuxi (the site of the crisis in the present study), these regions were found to be relatively insensitive to the effects of the pollution incidents and the environmental regulations that were triggered. Highlights • This paper examines spatial behaviors of pollution-intensive firms across the Taihu Lake watershed in response to the water crisis. • The paper pays special attention to the regional difference in enforcement effectiveness of environmental regulations. • Pollution haven hypothesis works efficiently in the short run. • The effect of stringent environmental policies was compromised by differences in policy enforcement effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A number of empirical methods have been developed to study China's sectoral carbon emissions (CSCE). Measuring these emissions is important for climate change mitigation. While several articles have reviewed specific methods, few attempts conduct a systematic analysis of all the major research methods. In total 807 papers were published on CSCE research between 1997 and 2017. The primary source of literature for this analysis was taken from the Web of Science database. Based on a bibliometric analysis using knowledge mapping with the software CiteSpace, the review identified five common families of methods: 1) environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA), 2) index decomposition analysis (IDA), 3) econometrics, 4) carbon emission control efficiency evaluation and 5) simulation. The research revealed the main trends in each family of methods and has visualized this research into ten research clusters. In addition, the paper provides a direct comparison of all methods. The research results can help scholars quickly identify and compare different methods for addressing specific research questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development, Chinese governments have introduced "1+N" "dual-carbon" policy system aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions, transforming energy structures and controlling pollution. An effective policy mix and synergy is crucial for achieving the emission reduction targets and for ensuring the effectiveness of the policies, and it is therefore of great practical importance to provide a pathway for policy synergy based on assessing policy effectiveness. This paper selects three policies, namely the carbon Emission Trading System (ETS), Coal Control and Clean Utilization (CCCU), and Green Financial Reform and Innovation Pilot Zone (GFPZ), sets up ten scenarios, adopts difference-in-differences (DID) models to evaluate the impact, and give a pathway for policy synergy. The results show that ETS, CCCU, and GFPZ policies have significant positive effects on carbon emission reduction, energy structure transformation, and industrial environmental pollution control, respectively; CCCU has synergistic effects with ETS and GFPZ policies in controlling coal consumption and increasing the completion of industrial pollution control investments, respectively; while GFPZ policies have conflicting effects with CCCU and ETS in reducing carbon emissions and coal consumption, the GFPZ policy has conflicting effects with CCCU and ETS in reducing carbon emissions and controlling coal consumption. Finally, the study proposes a phased policy support system around carbon emission reduction in the power generation industry, energy structure transformation, and industrial environmental pollution control before 2030 and from 2030 to 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper matched the data for all non-financial listed firms in China from 1990 to 2017 with weather data and used temperature and precipitation to represent climate change. Using daily temperature and daily precipitation data, we constructed temperature bins and precipitation bins. This study presents a potential first empirical analysis that applies the risk perception theory to comprehensively examine the impacts of daily temperature and daily precipitation on firms' debt financing costs. Compared to a day with a suitable temperature, a day with temperatures above 30 °C increases firms' debt financing costs by 0.2411%. Compared to a sunny day, a day with torrential rain increases firms' financing costs by 0.2697%. Approximately $122.13 million and $20.49 million in extra costs were incurred across all firms in 2017. We conducted a series of heterogeneity tests. We found that the negative impacts of climate change on debt financing costs are greater for firms that investor considers more vulnerable. Finally, we found two possible mechanisms. First, from the firm's subjective initiative perspective, firms that respond proactively during seasons of high temperatures and heavy rains can reduce the negative impacts. Second, adverse weather caused by climate change may also increase firms' debt financing costs by blocking travel. These results enrich the literature on firms' debt financing costs and contribute to the understanding of climate change's impact on firms. [Display omitted] • An extra high-temperature day increases firms' debt financing cost by 0.2411%. • An extra heavy-rain day increases firms' debt financing costs by 0.2697%. • The negative impacts will be greater for those firms that investor considers more vulnerable. • Firms' response proactively can reduce the negative impacts. • Climate change also may increase firms' debt financing costs by blocking travel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With important implications for global climate change mitigation, the development of a cap-and-trade emission trading scheme (ETS) in China is embedded in distinctive political, economic, and institutional contexts and has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. To offer a clear perspective on current research progress, this paper systematically reviews the recent literature on China’s ETS from three main aspects: mechanism design, policy and regional linkages, as well as impact assessment. The current research consensuses are summarized based upon detailed literature analyses and commentaries, and together with observations of international experience and China’s actual condition, the paper provides policy proposals for the development of China’s national ETS during 2016–2020. Finally, several important controversies in the current literature are discussed with regard to the practical demands of China’s ETS development. Five pressing topics that need to be further studied in the coming years are highlighted, including cap setting, allowance allocation among sectors and enterprises, carbon pricing, policy package and unified carbon market construction, as well as ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Energy/emission intensity indicators measure the relationship between economic development and climate change. These intensity indicators are preferentially used in assessment criteria for mitigation goals in places such as China. This paper investigates the driving factors of changes in the national CO 2 emission intensity and their contributions to reductions at the sector level in China from 2002 to 2012 using multiplicative structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and attribution analysis. Both Leontief and Ghosh input-output models are used in the study. The empirical results indicate: 1) the energy intensity effect is the main driver that decreases the aggregate emission intensity from both the demand and supply sides; 2) structural effects, such as the energy structure effect and domestic Ghosh structure effect, promote the increase in aggregate emission intensity principally; and 3) to a large extent, sector "smelting and pressing of metals", "manufacture of non-metallic mineral products" and "chemical industry" are the top three sectors that contribute to the negative energy intensity effect. Ultimately, several discussions and conclusions associated with the empirical results, result stability and research extensibility are presented. Highlights • Both Leontief and Ghosh models were adopted to study China's CO 2 intensity. • Multiplicative decomposition was applied to study the intensity changes in 2002–2012. • Energy intensity effect was the major drivers to reduce China's emission intensity. • The structural effects as a whole contributed to the increase of emission intensity. • The domestic allocation structure can be adjusted and optimized preferentially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Joseph S. Nye defined soft power as the power of attraction to affect the behavior of other states through the use of non-coercive instruments including culture, political values and foreign policy. Over the last two decades, environmental issues have grown in importance on the international agenda and become critical components of states' foreign policy-making. This paper aims to analyze environmental foreign policy as a soft power instrument focusing on two major rising powers: China and India. Traditionally, China and India had been reluctant to make any commitments in the field. However, they have shown greater willingness to act in global environmental governance in the past decade. They started playing more active roles in global climate change negotiations and supported a number of initiatives. Their current rise in global environmental governance has even been praised by the international community as the Paris agreement case demonstrated. This study evaluates China's and India's recent efforts in global environmental governance with a focus on climate change negotiations linking their constructive position to their soft power potential. It is argued that environmental issues are used by these two states as foreign policy strategy to gain more influence in international politics. This study finds out that China's climate-related environmental diplomacy has been more ambitious than that of India and thus has been closer to fulfill its potential as a soft power asset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980–2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400–800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting urban transition is critical, particularly for China’s rapid urbanization. Circular economy strategy is widely recognized as an effective way to achieve a low-carbon transition of cities through improved waste recycling and industrial symbiosis. However, the evidence of low-carbon benefit is less reported. While the carbon footprint (CFP) represents a mature tool responding to climate change concerns, limited studies have made use of CFP as a proxy for the performance of urban circular economy promotion. The aim of this paper is to investigate the CFP with a ten years span (2002–2012) of Guiyang, so as to understand how its circular economy practices have led to low-carbon benefits. Guiyang, one of China’s national pilots of the Circular Economy (CE) City, the Low-Carbon City, as well as the Ecological Civilization City, has offered an ideal laboratory where the opportunities and challenges for a low-carbon urban transition can be explicitly discussed. A hybrid model that integrates an input-output (IO) approach and process-based inventory analysis is developed to distinguish between direct carbon emissions of sectors from energy consumption, and indirect carbon emissions related to upstream and downstream flows both from production and consumption perspectives. The CFP of Guiyang in 2002, 2007 (after becoming the circular economy pilot) and 2012 (with implementation of urban industrial symbiosis) are analyzed by taking the 2002 as year of business as usual (BAU) scenario. Particularly, we identify scenarios related to proposed urban industrial symbiosis. Results imply that dramatic resource saving and CFP reductions could be achieved simultaneously. Changes to the CFP in 2002, 2007 and 2012 provide critical insights into the role of circular economy in speeding up urban transition towards a low-carbon society. Finally, policy recommendations to tackle the barriers to regional low-carbon transition are proposed. We believe that this study is informative for policy makers of urban planning by shedding a light on innovative eco-industrial development and urban transition in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite rapid economic development, the transport industry has been claimed to account for a major part of climate change. This paper investigates total factor carbon-sensitive productivity growth in the regional transport sector in China and decomposes its dynamic changes over time taking account of the regional heterogeneity of different provinces. Thus, the contemporaneous metafrontier Malmquist-Luenberger approach that combined with non-radial directional distance functions is proposed and define a new indicator called the contemporaneous metafrontier Malmquist-Luenberger carbon emission performance index (CMML). This total factor indicator includes the metafrontier efficiency-change index (MEC), the metafrontier technology-change index (MTC), and the metafrontier technology-gap-change index (TGC). Results show an about 4% increase in overall total factor carbon emission productivity during the period of 2000–2012. Different growth patterns are also observed in the transport sector across different area of China. In the eastern region, the growth of carbon productivity is driven mainly by pure efficiency changes, whereas the central region is driven mainly by innovations in the low-carbon transport technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive GHG inventory provides an overview and the information of sources of emissions, and can serve as a sound scientific basis for mitigation actions. This study was the first initiative to develop a complete and transparent GHG inventory of Beijing, to document the current situation and to help governmental officials to clarify their priorities for reducing GHG emissions. The authors investigated and calculated the emission sources defined by the GPC, and assessed data accuracy. The contents of the detailed inventory were documented and are open for research verification and for methodological references for other cities. The results showed that three emission sources, i.e. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption, CO 2 emissions from industrial production and CH 4 emissions from landfills, contributed 97% of Beijing's GHGs. Considering the problem of missing data and low data quality, the authors suggested that instead of seeking to compile a complete inventory, Chinese cities should first report their GHG emissions from these sources, while improving the data quality for the long run. The authors anticipate that the findings reported in this paper will help to strengthen city-level GHG inventory research in China and throughout the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50-70-yr, 100-120-yr, and 200-250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3°C and 0.7°C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870-2000, at a rate of 0.56° ± 0.42°C (100 yr); however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981-1100 and AD 1201-70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°-30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A new repeatable batch processing method is developed for regional SUHI assessment. • A framework is proposed to explain the formation of SUHI effect. • The impacts of most driving factors on SUHI effect are spatial heterogeneous. • More attention should be paid to small cities. The urban heat island (UHI) effect has become a hot topic worldwide because of the double stress of global climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the deficiencies of existing methods hinder the monitoring and assessment of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect at the regional scale. This paper presented a new method to assess SUHI intensity, and then applied it in China. The results indicated that: (1) compared with other methods, this new method has some merits like higher accuracy, fewer operational steps, and higher portability. It enables accurate, semi-automated assessment of SUHI intensity at the regional scale. (2) SUHI effect exists in 81.02% of the cities in China. These cities were mainly concentrated in southeastern China, which presented the significant characteristic of spatial agglomeration. (3) Urban-rural differences in relative humidity, vegetation coverage, evapotranspiration, waterbody coverage, and the number of industrial enterprises are the main driving factors for the SUHI effect in China. Furthermore, there are significant interactions among these driving factors. (4) The spatial heterogeneity of the influence directions and intensities of many driving factors is obvious. Therefore, traditional regression models should be utilized more cautiously because they cannot capture the spatial heterogeneity of variables. (5) The hypothesis of "the larger the city size, the higher the SUHI intensity" is not valid, so more attention should be paid to small cities in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately understanding the real situation of China’s carbon emissions at the provincial level is not only crucial for realizing carbon mitigation in China, but also of great importance for tackling climate change on a global scale. This paper uses detailed energy consumption data subdivided within each fuel type and sector-specific emission factors, to calculate both direct and indirect energy-related CO 2 emissions for China’s provinces, and offers provincially-targeted policy proposals on emission reductions. The results uncover large divergences in calculation of provincial CO 2 emissions between production-based and consumption-based accounting approaches. Considering the large amount of interprovincial CO 2 emission transfers embodied in secondary energy deployment, the consumption-based accounting performs better in reflecting the actual features and responsibilities of carbon emissions in the provinces of China. From the consumption perspective, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Henan, Liaoning and Shanxi contributed to the majority of China’s carbon emission growth during the period of 1996–2013, while Xinjiang, Sichuan, Anhui, Tianjin and Hunan were playing an increasingly important role. These two groups of provinces should be regarded as the key regions for national emissions abatement. Meanwhile, the energy industry was the top sectoral contributor to CO 2 emissions growth in most provinces, while service and household sectors made increasingly significant impacts on driving up provincial emissions. Together with ongoing efforts in the energy sector, the mitigation of CO 2 emissions in service and household sectors deserves much more attention, especially in the transportation and urban household sectors. Furthermore, the temporal trends of carbon emissions in various provinces, as well as their factor and sectoral driving forces, varied greatly with each other. Therefore, each of the provinces should formulate emission reduction policies according to their own situation, and target the key driving factors and sectors of carbon emissions at the current stage or in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation has significant effects on ecosystems, environments, and human health, as well as atmospheric processes and climate change. Two ultraviolet radiation datasets are described in this paper. One contains hourly observations of UV radiation measured at 40 Chinese Ecosystem Research Network stations from 2005 to 2015. CUV3 broadband radiometers were used to observe the UV radiation, with an accuracy of 5%, which meets the World Meteorology Organization's measurement standards. The extremum method was used to control the quality of the measured datasets. The other dataset contains daily cumulative UV radiation estimates that were calculated using an all-sky estimation model combined with a hybrid model. The reconstructed daily UV radiation data span from 1961 to 2014. The mean absolute bias error and root-mean-square error are smaller than 30% at most stations, and most of the mean bias error values are negative, which indicates underestimation of the UV radiation intensity. These datasets can improve our basic knowledge of the spatial and temporal variations in UV radiation. Additionally, these datasets can be used in studies of potential ozone formation and atmospheric oxidation, as well as simulations of ecological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95), the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5), high-temperature days (HTD) and low-temperature days (LTD). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used in the research. The results show that: (1) Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2) By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961-1990) in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3) The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4) The intensity of the warm (cold) extremes would increase (decrease) significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5) by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the increase in the TN5 is larger than that of the TX95 in the national mean value. The changes in both the TX95 and TN5 are larger under the higher versus weaker emission scenario, indicating that it is essential to reduce the GHG emissions and take adaptation measures in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents some of the main arguments related to the use of alternative technologies for generation of electrical energy that have been developed as part of the global climate change mitigation mechanisms. The article focuses on the market of products for generation of solar energy that has had a huge expansion in recent years and, since the People's Republic of China (China) has managed to control large segments of the international market of components and products for generation of solar energy, it has been immersed in commercial disputes. Climate change (cc) is associated with the greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions which are generated in the combustion process; their mitigation becomes a core part of the energy security of the countries with the generation of energy with lower environmental impact resolving, in part, the expansion of the energy demand. The main conclusion in this text is that, in general, the electric energy generated with alternative technologies has created an economic and commercial space of intense competition which translates to new businesses with a bioethical justification associated to the protection of the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New developments in consumption-based emissions accounting suggest that the reductions claimed by wealthy, environmentally progressive nations have often come at the expense of increased emissions elsewhere – and thus net growth in global GHG concentrations. This paper traces Sweden's attempts to translate growing recognition of displaced emissions into national environmental policy. Drawing on multi-sited ethnographic research and policy analysis in Sweden and China, we argue that while the logical implications of consumption-based analyses point to the need to address production and consumption as an integrated system, complex governance challenges and the political precariousness of these ideas have thus far limited policy to the reinvention of consumer awareness campaigns and an international extension of long-standing ecological efficiency efforts. We argue that consumption-based emissions indicators justify more ambitious demand-side policy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris climate change negotiations represents the most ambitious worldwide effort to date to combat climate change. As the largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China pledges 60–65% cut in carbon intensity below 2005 levels by 2030. To accelerate China's climate efforts, China has also committed to cap its primary energy use at 4.8 billion tons of coal equivalent in 2020. This paper proposes an equitable and efficient scheme to disaggregate this national goal among provinces. A three-step disaggregation procedure is proposed which takes into account the initial allocation, national redistribution and inter-provincial adjustment. First, this study allocates the incremental energy quota, taking 2010 as the base year. Second, part of the energy quota is set aside by the central government for redistribution purposes, while an incremental energy quota index comprising equity and efficiency criteria is used for initial allocation among provinces. Finally, historical efforts and inter-provincial energy flows are considered for inter-provincial adjustment. This disaggregation scheme is flexible and can be easily extended to allocation and management of other resource and environmental targets. The empirical findings can assist decision-makers in identifying which provinces are likely to over-consume the energy quota relative to the proposed allocation and which provinces are likely to perform better in energy conservation. Moreover, the results show that the energy cap set for 2020 is unachievable without further action. Market-based instruments, such as an energy allowance trading market, are strongly recommended to achieve the energy use target in an equitable and cost-effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1◦ scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%-8% of China's land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010-30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040-50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China's land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China's ecoregions in future decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrubs have been reported to expand into grassland and polar regions in the world, which causes complex changes in ecosystem carbon, nutrients, and resilience. Given the projected global drying trend, shrubs with their superior drought resistance and tolerance may play more important roles in global ecosystemfunction. Shrubland exists in all of the climate zones in China, fromsubtropical to temperate and high cold regions, and they occupy more than 20% of the land area. In this paper, we analyzed the spatiotemporal trend ofMODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) for six shrubland types in China from 2001 to 2013 and its relationship to intra- and inter-annual regional climate dynamics. Existing literature reported that the vegetation index did not change significantly in China during 2000-2012. However, we found that the shrubland EVI in China increased significantly at a rate of 1.01 × 10-3 EVI· a-1 from 2001 to 2013. Two major shrubland types (subtropical evergreen and temperate deciduous) and two desert types (high-cold desert and temperate desert) increased significantly, whereas subalpine evergreen shrubland decreased at a rate of -0.64 × 10-3 EVI· a-1. We also detected a significantly lengthened growing season of temperate deciduous shrubland. The growing season length contributed significantly to the annual averaged EVI for temperate deciduous, subalpine deciduous and subtropical evergreen shrublands. Furthermore, the precipitation variation contributed more to the annual averaged EVI than the temperature. The year-round decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperature led to a significant reduction in the subalpine evergreen shrubland EVI. The enhancement of countrywide shrubland EVI may promote its contribution to the regional ecosystem function and its potential to invade grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), countries worldwide co-operate on encountering climate change by emissions trading, which enables a win–win situation by effectively “regenerating” a cleaner environment in developing countries, whilst efforts in developed countries may still not meet their committed targets of carbon reduction. According to the CDM rules, energy efficiency improvement projects in the building sector are valid for emissions trading. Although the potential saving of energy is significant, there is only a limited number of building projects being registered as CDM projects. This paper explores the applicability of CDM in the building sector by reviewing the implementation of CDM and its advantages and disadvantages. Hong Kong was selected for an in-depth study due to its eligibility for CDM and yet non-starter status. According to a questionnaire survey supplemented by interviews with the stakeholders in this study, major hindrances such as the lack of financial incentive, inadequate knowledge about emissions trading and insufficient governmental support were found in potential CDM projects in the building sector. It is recommended that an inter-city emissions trading market covering mainland China and Hong Kong, and suitable emission reduction targets should be established and led by the government at the initial stage. By setting up an emission exchange centre, local emissions trading activities could be facilitated and job opportunities could be created. In addition to conducting emissions trading, Hong Kong may also contribute to emissions trading in the region by making use of its highly skilled professional services and efficient business environment. This study paves the way for a densely built city such as Hong Kong to benefit environmentally and economically from a cleaner region in its vicinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent and the determinants of global climate change beliefs. In contrast to former studies for the U.S. and other western countries, we focus on China due to its crucial role in international climate policy in conjunction with its vulnerability to global warming. The empirical analysis is based on unique data from a survey among more than 1000 adults in five Chinese cities. In line with former studies, our results reveal that the vast majority of almost 90% of the Chinese respondents believes in the existence of global warming. This seems to be a convenient and necessary basis for the support of costly public adaptation activities in China. Our econometric analysis reveals that already perceived experiences with extreme weather events (and particularly heatwaves) alone are strongly correlated with climate change beliefs and that physical or financial damages due to these events lead to even stronger relationships. Our estimation results additionally suggest females as well as people with a lower education, in medium ages, with higher household incomes, and from Chengdu or Shenyang to be more skeptical toward the existence of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is concerned with a comprehensive analysis of building energy efficiency policies in light of improvements in energy performance, living standards and climate change mitigation in China's built environment. In recent years, China has added about 1.7 billion square meters of new floor space in both urban and rural areas on an annual basis. In 2010, the total area of existing buildings in China was approximately 48.6 billion square meters, nearly twice the total of existing buildings areas in the European Union. How to improve energy efficiency in the soaring number of new buildings and accelerate the retrofit of the huge number of existing buildings are two daunting challenges currently facing China in terms of energy security and climate change mitigation at a global level. China has gradually altered the building energy efficiency policy portfolio, from a purely regulatory approach with a mandatory building code at the initial stage to voluntary green buildings initiatives. This paper is structured as a critical assessment of building energy efficiency policies for new and existing buildings. Both strengths and weaknesses of the implemented energy efficiency policies are detailed in each of the studied areas. It also discusses the dilemma of public games in green and sustainable buildings production in the context of Chinese economic development and societal transition. The analysis emphasises the importance of guaranteeing the consistency between policies in the current regulatory framework to maximise the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies in the built environment in China. For this, it is necessary to articulate building energy efficiency policies implementation and broader energy and climate policies. This integrative study provides both a retrospective assessment and prospective direction of building energy efficiency policy development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the 20th century warming over China. There is a considerable model-data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present (ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (30-40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change and also plays a very important role in the operation of the entire economic system, leading many studies to evaluate the possible agricultural direct economic damage (ADED) of climate change. However, this damage may have an amplification impact through the intricate industrial linkages that exist among sectors, and this impact may be even greater than the original damage. Therefore, to elucidate the economic cascading effect (ECE) in China caused by ADED and industrial linkage, this paper used the ARIO model to evaluate the total ECE and analyse the differences in the 19 sectors by taking the ADED under future annual mean temperature (AMT) increases of 1–5 °C as the input condition and adjusting the exogenous parameters to enhance the adaptability of the model; the goal was to assess the economic impact of climate change in China. The results show that (i) there is a significant amplifying impact of ECE due to industrial linkage under the influence of warming, ECE will be 4.24–5.25 times that of ADED, and the total economic impact (ADED + ECE) will exceed the GDP of the Chinese capital of Beijing in 2012 when the AMT increases by 1.5 °C, while it will exceed one tenth of China's GDP when it increases by 4 °C. (ii) Manufacturing will be the sector most affected by the industrial linkage under ADED, which accounts for 26.58% of total ECE, followed by agriculture (10.39%) and construction (8.5%). (iii) The decrease in cultivated land area will have a significant impact on the economy; when it is reduced to the minimum demand (1.41% less than 2012), ADED increases by 1.65 times and ECE increases by 2.35 times. This paper aims to provide a new perspective from which to evaluate the economic impact of climate change by studying ECEs behind sectoral interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Universities, the important locations for scientific research and education, have the responsibility to lead ecological civilization and low carbon transition. Ecological footprint evaluation (EFE) is usually used to measure sustainability of campuses. Although it can provide guidance and reference for overall campus planning, it lacks effective significance for individual behavior, especially when the reduction of carbon emissions is the aim. On the other hand a possible solution can be represented by machine learning. It can identify the key factors that will influence individual's overall carbon emissions caused by students' daily behavior, it can be used to find effective ways to reduce individual carbon emissions. This paper applied EFE and machine learning to comprehensively evaluate campus sustainability and students' carbon emissions. Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), a "University in the Forest", was used as a study case in China. Even if HUST is endowned with a forest coverage of 72%, here we showed that its Ecological Footprint Index was −12.52, indicating strong unsustainability. This is mainly due to the high energy and food consumption, caused by the large population living in the campus and the lacking of energy saving measures. The per capita ecological footprint was relatively high, compared with other universities in the world, which meant more efforts needed to be done on ecological sustainability. Low carbon emission is a key feature for a sustainable campus. Based on the questionnaire survey delivered to 486 students who live in the campus, their daily active data were collected in terms of students' personal clothing, food, housing, consumption and transportation. And their associated carbon emissions were calculated based on emission intensities of Chinese population. Based on 486 detailed datasets, machine learning was then used to identify the key daily behavior to influence students' total carbon emission. Results showed that making behavior changes in air conditioning, food and electric bicycle were the most effective ways to reduce carbon emissions. Finally, while effective suggestions were proposed based on qualitative and quantitative evaluations, it is concluded that it is imperative for universities in China to formulate effective low-carbon policies, to achieve sustainable development and to confront global climate change. • A review of main initiatives of sustainable campus construction worldwide. • An evaluation combining campus ecological footprint and individual carbon footprint. • The ecological footprint of "China Forest University" reflects unsustainable. • Machine learning identifies internal driving force of campus carbon emissions. • Targeted guidelines on campus low-carbon construction are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 170 rainfall-related excavation failure cases in China were collected for analyses. • 10 conceptual models were developed for illustration of the excavation failures. • Soil conditions and technical factors involved in the failures were summarized. Over the last 30 years, intense rainfall events due to abnormal climate change have brought about numerous excavation failures in the urban areas of China. These heavy rainfall-related engineering failures, characterized by failure or collapse of retaining structures and/or retained slopes, have caused large-scale damages to urban environment as well as injuries and casualties. Thus, a summary of such failures along with corresponding statistical patterns and contributing factors is essential, which can help practitioners further understand the risk of excavation failures associated with heavy rainfall and then could develop or adopt appropriate measures for prevention of future failures. Based on these considerations, this paper reviewed 170 excavation failure cases occurring during 1994–2018 in China, using a method of descriptive statistics. The review mainly focused on their statistical failure patterns (temporal distributions of failures, types of failures and types of failed soil strata, etc.) and contributory factors (e.g., heavy rainfall influences and technical factors). It was disclosed that the failures occurred in those deep excavations in sandy soils during summer more frequently. In general, the failures can be categorized into six basic types, which are mainly governed by 11 kinds of adverse influences of heavy rainfall (e.g., seepage erosion under high hydraulic gradient, intense runoff scouring and water gushing impact from broken storm sewers nearby, etc.) and 16 technical factors (e.g., ignorance or improper protection of adjacent preexisting drainage structures, deficiencies in drainage or dewatering system, and poor construction quality of temporary retaining structures, etc.). The findings and lessons learned from this review are practically useful for designers and contractors to reduce the incidence of future excavation failures in the context of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green bonds have increasingly been utilized around the world as a source of financing for renewable energy development, designed with compliance requirements and measurable economic returns to investors, while mitigating climate change. However, the efficacy of green bond arranged in the emerging economies for financing renewable energy assets and how the underlying risks are managed have remained to be explored. The paper aims to examine the evolving green financial system sponsored by both public and private institutions in managing such risks within China's emerging economy. A case study of green financing for a bundle of wind power assets led by a state-owned enterprise (SOE) reveals an alternative approach by structuring public–private collaboration while stipulating market-based financial incentives to institutional stakeholders under a political economy. This institutional consortium is composed of a state development bank, a commercial bank, credit rating agencies, institutional and private investors, regional power purchasers, and carbon trading entities. Financial stakeholders' risk in such emerging sustainable investment is moderated by these participating institutions and structured "upsides" from carbon trading aligned with the framework of green finance and standards for green bond development. The results reveal the potentials of scaling up the development of renewable energy by adequately managing and sharing key risks, while allocating substantial funding into renewable energy projects under such a green financial system that is to be complementary with a scalable post COVID-19 economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unanticipated environmental shocks impact the livelihoods of many resource users around the world. These shocks are likely to be more unpredictable as the effects of climate change continue to mount. Yet how households adapt to these changing climatic conditions especially in the context of rapidly changing market conditions in most areas of the world, is poorly understood. These interactions have wide implications for both smallholder livelihoods and sustainable use of natural resources. In this paper, we examine the relationship between environmental shocks and stocking rates in livestock herds in the Inner Mongolian grasslands of northern China. We uniquely examine three types of shocks and how households adapt livestock production strategies in response to each. Separately and in aggregate, we look at three common shocks in Inner Mongolia: droughts, snowstorms, and locust outbreaks. We use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate changes in stocking rates among households that experience shocks versus those that do not with a panel dataset from 2009 to 2014 of 597 households. While we find no clear impact from locusts, our results suggest droughts and snowstorms have opposite effects: droughts are associated with increases in herd sizes, but snowstorms result in decreased herds. We suggest these differences are due to interactions between shocks, emerging options to borrow on credit, and livestock markets. Household adaptation to climate change will be strategic and take advantage of both available resources as well as market conditions. • Climate change is causing stronger and more unpredictable environmental shocks. • We use a difference-in-differences model to estimate the impact of shocks on stocking rate. • Drought relates to bigger herds; snowstorms relate to smaller herds. • Households adapt to shocks taking advantage of both available resources and market conditions. • Shaping well-functioning market may reduce opportunistic resource exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To tackle climate change, Chinese government has applied an array of mitigating measures to reduce CO2 emissions. During the 11th Five-year Plan, Chinese government set the emission reduction target policy to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 20%. This paper attempts to estimate the effect of this emission reduction target policy on industrial performance from complexity perspective. The result shows more complex industrial structure is related to less coal consumption. In general, emission reduction target policy has a negative effect on the probability of branching into new industries and lower the productivity and profitability of a given industry. However, this negative effect is weaker for more complex industries. Only for industries with very high complexity, emission reduction target policy can improve the performance of an industry rather than exerting a negative effect. Our finding not only helps to design a more effective policy to achieve industrial development strategy, but also provides a potential way to achieve economic growth while reduce the emission of greenhouse gases at the same time. • We investigate the impact of Emission reduction target policy(ERT) on industrial performance from complexity perspective. • We apply the method of reflection to calculate the Economic Complexity of provinces and Industry Complexity of industries. • More complex industrial structure contributes to the coal consumption reduction. • ERT has negative effects on the probability of branching into new industries, lowers the productivity and profitability of a given industry. • ERT has weaker negative effects for more complex industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass power is one of the most important renewable energy sources in China. In order to provide a reference for China's biomass power planning, this paper builds a power sector-planning model using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The results show that in the base scenario, the installed capacity of agricultural and forestry residues, municipal solid waste and biogas will increase to 22350 MW, 21150 MW, and 4900 MW, respectively by 2030. From the point of view of total volume, biomass supply is not a constraining factor for biomass power source. However, there are some social and economic factors that impede the development of the biomass power industry, some of which may not be addressed in the short term. Therefore, the development of the biomass power industry in China is a long-term process. Some policy suggestions were proposed, including reasonable planning and more subsidies for biomass supply value chain. • An optimal power-planning model focused on bio-energy in China was developed. • Agricultural and forestry power, waste power and biogas power were all analyzed. • Social and economic factors that impede biomass power were investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]