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Featured Application: The integrated analysis method for understanding the main driving factors shaping forested areas proposed in this paper can provide helpful insight into sustainable and long-term land use systems in Senegal. Understanding the factors influencing the vulnerability of forested areas is crucial for human well-being and effective governance of ecosystem supply and demand. Based on remote sensing data, this study also considered ten natural and human variables as indexes to explore the main influencing factors that may impact the vulnerability of the Thies region's forested areas. The 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 satellite image data were processed using ArcGIS 10.6 and ENVI 5.1 software. The methodology includes using the transfer matrix approach and calculating the geographic landscape index to describe the dominant morphology of forested areas. Furthermore, a mixed linear regression model was built to establish the connection between forested areas and the potential contributing components. Our study revealed that the forested areas led to relative fragmentation, with an average of 88 patches for Aggregation Index (AI), 3.25 for Largest Patch Index (LPI), 2.50 for Patch Density (PD), and 112 for Landscape Shape Index (LSI) between 2005 and 2020. In addition, the transfer matrix indicated that the loss of forestry areas was about −78.8 km2 for agricultural land, −127.8 km2 for bare land, and −65.3 km2 for artificial surfaces. The most critical factors that influenced forested areas were agricultural and manufactural added value, rainfall (p < 0.05), slope, distance to the road, and agricultural sown area (p < 0.001). Overall, this investigation has revealed that the effective management of forested areas in the Thies region requires an understandable assessment. It was observed that both human anthropogenic and natural factors significantly contribute to the decline in forested areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista INVI is the property of Universidad de Chile and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research aims at analysing the extent to which climate change affects cotton and cashew nuts production and exports in West African countries in the presence of intermediary market power. To that end, the paper uses a combination of approaches to calibrate a price endogenous regional bio-economic optimisation model and handles uncertainties inherent to future socioeconomic scenarios through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the effects of climate change on cotton and cashew nuts land use are mixed under the two simulated climate change scenarios. In fact, the effects vary across countries, ranging from experiencing only a decline, or only an increase to both a decline and an increase in land use. Similarly, the effects of climate change on the quantities of cotton and cashew nuts exported are also mixed, with the positive effects being more pronounced for cotton. Simulations of reductions in the market power exerted by intermediaries on cotton producers also show that such a scenario could to some extent mitigate the negative effects of climate change on cotton exports for some countries. Therefore, actions that include corrections to cotton market imperfection could be undertaken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on cotton and cashew nuts production in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a clear need for an understanding of the perceptions of climate change among those whose lives are most affected to inform national discourse and in particular, development and implementation of adaptation strategies. The paper is the outcome of a qualitative study among the local people of Charhajari, Anuliya and Nitpur unions of Bangladesh. The key informant technique, along with in-depth interview, had been exploited for gaining holistic perceptions on climatic scenario in the localities, while focus group discussion and case study were used for mapping out collective social consensus on the subject. The study has elucidated the threats climate change poses to established long-term beliefs, practices and perceptions by instigating erratic changes in weather patterns, shifting seasons, and questioning efficacy and authority of traditional interpretation of local weather. Local inhabitants have their own way of internalization and symbolic interpretation of climate induced debacles. Of the indicators demonstrating the impacts of climate change on local communities, seasonal diversity decline is central for affecting every aspects of socio-economic life including rituals and festivals. Apart from these, inhabitants have explored a number of independent and dependent climatic hazards they are under exposed. The paper concludes that experience of climate change impacts is for most cases ecosystem based but perception appears to be culturally specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sanjiang Plain is the largest marsh distribution area of China, and marshes in this region significantly affect regional carbon cycle and biodiversity protection. The vegetation phenology of marsh significantly affects the energy exchange and carbon cycle in that region. Under the influence of global climatic change, identifying the changes in phenology and their responses to climatic variation in marshes of Sanjiang Plain is essential for predicting the carbon stocks of marsh ecosystem in that region. Using climate and NDVI data, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and explored the impacts of climatic variation on vegetation phenology in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Results showed that the SOS advanced by 0.30 days/a, and EOS delayed by 0.23 days/a, causing LOS to increase significantly (p <.05) by 0.53 days/a over marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Spatially, the large SOS advance and EOS delay resulted in an obvious increasing trend for LOS in northern Sanjiang Plain. The rise of spring and winter temperatures advanced the SOS and increased the LOS, and the rise in temperature in autumn delayed the EOS in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering seasonal climatic conditions in simulating marsh vegetation phenology and indicate that the different influences of climatic variation on marsh vegetation phenology in different regions should be fully considered to assess the marsh ecosystem response to climatic change in Sanjiang Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The freshwater Buir Lake in Khalkh Gol soum, Dornod aimag, is located (47° 51' 47° N, 117° 51' 29° E) on the border of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. The northwest and northeast part of the lake is swampy, and is flat in the rest part. This research paper reveals the lithology and some major elements content (SiO2, Al2O3, TiO2, Fe2O3, MgO, K2O, Na2O, MnO and P2O5) of the core sediments and their distribution along the depth and the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA), which will be a significant factor in restoring environmental change. According to the data of analysis of major elements of Buir Lake sediments, the concentration of SiO2 ranges from 42.92 to 58.29%; Al2O3 = 9.25-12.83%; Fe2O3 = 3.66-4.79%; TiO2 = 0.46-0.62%; MnO = 0.08-0.13%; CaO = 5.73-11.56%; MgO = 1.34-1.81%; Na2O = 0.72-1.50%; K2O = 1.58-2.31%; and P2O5 = 0.14-0.26% respectively. The chemical index of alteration is basically the same as the distribution of SiO2, Al2O3, TiO2, Fe2O3, MgO, K2O and Na2O in the sediments of the lake, but their content at 32.5 cm interval of the core sharply decreases and also increases. This is perhaps due to global climate change. The content and distribution patterns of water-soluble elements, such as CaO, MnO, and P2O5, are negatively correlated with the chemical index of alteration. These lead to conclude that major elements of Buir Lake sediment and Chemical Index of Alteration are closely related to climatic changes in eastern Mongolia pertaining to the Upper Pleistocene and the Holocene epochs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism climate research is of great significance to the tourism industry because tourism is closely linked to climate. Based on an analysis of related core papers, this paper reviews the research progress on tourism climate in China in terms of research method, research process, and research topic. Research on tourism climate in China started later than similar research in some Western countries and the topics mainly focused on tourism climate resources, climate comfort for tourism, the impact of climate on tourists' behavior and emotion, climate and tourism seasonality, climate change and tourism development, etc. To provide scientific support for the sustainable development of China's tourism industry, we propose the following for future research, based on our review of the literature: (1) strengthening the theoretical study of tourism climatology, (2) constructing and improving the research content system, and (3) enriching relevant research in climate-sensitive areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing resilience against flooding events is of great importance. Eastern Iberian Peninsula coastal areas are well known for high intensity rainfalls known as DANA or "cold drop". Extreme records in 24 h can exceed the annual average of the historical series. This phenomenon occurs normally in autumn due to convective storms generated by the existence of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere combined with warm winds coming from the Mediterranean Sea. In many coastal areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, their flat topography, sometimes of a marsh nature, and the natural (e.g., dune ridges) and man-made (e.g., infrastructures) factors, result in devastating flooding events of great potential damage and risk for urban and rural areas. In this context, this paper presents the case study of the town of Oliva (Valencia, Spain) and how in a flooding event the flow tends to spread and accumulate along the flat coastal strip of this populated area, causing great potential damage. From that point, the paper discusses the particular issues that flood studies should consider in such flat and heavy rainy areas in terms of the hydrological and hydraulic models to be conducted to serve as the key tool of a correct risk assessment. This includes the correct statistical simulation of rainfalls, the hydrological model dependency on the return period and the correct geometry definition of all possible water barriers. An analysis of the disturbance that climatic change effects may introduce in future flooding events is also performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica is the property of Universidad de la Rioja, Servicio de Publicaciones and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the most important national agricultural production bases, and its agricultural water dynamics are essential for food security and sustainable agricultural development. However, the dynamics of long-term annual crop-specific agricultural water and its crop type and climate impacts remain largely unknown, compromising water-saving practices and water-efficiency agricultural management in this vital area. Thus, this study used multi-source data of the crop type, climate factors, and the digital elevation model (DEM), and multiple digital agriculture technologies of remote sensing (RS), the geographic information system (GIS), the Soil Conservation Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA-SCS) model, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Penman–Monteith (FAO P-M) model, and the water supply–demand index (M) to map the annual spatiotemporal distribution of effective precipitation (Pe), crop water requirement (ETc), irrigation water requirement (IWR), and the supply–demand situation in the NEC from 2000 to 2020. The study further analyzed the impacts of the crop type and climate changes on agricultural water dynamics and revealed the reasons and policy implications for their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicated that the annual average Pe, ETc, IWR, and M increased by 1.56%/a, 0.74%/a, 0.42%/a, and 0.83%/a in the NEC, respectively. Crop-specifically, the annual average Pe increased by 1.15%/a, 2.04%/a, and 2.09%/a, ETc decreased by 0.46%/a, 0.79%/a, and 0.89%/a, IWR decreased by 1.03%/a, 1.32%/a, and 3.42%/a, and M increased by 1.48%/a, 2.67%/a, and 2.87%/a for maize, rice, and soybean, respectively. Although the ETc and IWR for all crops decreased, regional averages still increased due to the expansion of water-intensive maize and rice. The crop type and climate changes jointly influenced agricultural water dynamics. Crop type transfer contributed 39.28% and 41.25% of the total IWR increase, and the remaining 60.72% and 58.75% were caused by cropland expansion in the NEC from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, respectively. ETc and IWR increased with increasing temperature and solar radiation, and increasing precipitation led to decreasing IWR in the NEC. The adjustment of crop planting structure and the implementation of water-saving practices need to comprehensively consider the spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of crop and climate changes on agricultural water dynamics. The findings of this study can aid RS-GIS-based agricultural water simulations and applications and support the scientific basis for agricultural water management and sustainable agricultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Qehan Lake Basin (QLB) and its system of lakes are located in a marginal monsoon zone and are extremely sensitive to global climate change. In this paper, using aerial photographs from different periods, in addition to MSS, TM, and ETM images, and combining these with regional topographic maps, we analyze lake area changes from 1958 to 2010 and the relation between Qehan Lake (QL) and climate variability. Our results indicate that there was a relatively high lake level in 1959, when the area and volume of the lake were 118.9 km and 151.9 × 10 m, respectively, but this level was subject to a shrinking trend until 2010, when the lake area was only 28.1 km, and the water volume was 41.1 × 10 m. West Qehan Lake (WQL) has experienced severe water shrinkage and lake level fluctuation. In 1958, WQL was 80.2 km in area and 124.1 × 10 m in volume. However, due to a rapid decrease in precipitation and increases in both temperature and evaporation, it began to dry up in 2002. The WQL Water area decreased by 1.82 km/a, and the lake level declined by 7 m during 1958-2002, so it became an ephemeral lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrubs are the main dominant plants in arid desert systems and play an important role in maintaining the biodiversity, ecosystem services and stability of desert ecosystems. Studies have shown that the survival of a large number of shrub species in desert areas under the influence of climate change is significantly threatened, with different species showing different response strategies. To test the tolerance of different shrub species to climate change, this study selected 10 dominant shrub species (ancient relict shrub species and regional endemic shrub species) in the Alashan desert area as the research object. Based on a field survey of species distribution, a species distribution model was developed to simulate the suitable distribution area of shrub species under current conditions and under future climate change scenarios. The distribution changes of ancient relict and regional endemic shrub species under the climate change scenarios were tested, and the tolerance of the two types of shrub to climate change was analyzed. The results showed that under different climate change scenarios, except for Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, the total suitable area of four out of the five relict plants was relatively stable, the potential distribution area of Tetraena mongolica increased, and the future distribution pattern was basically consistent with the current distribution. However, the suitable area of typical desert plants was unstable under different climate change scenarios. Except for Kalidium foliatum, the suitable distribution areas of four out of the five shrubs showed different degrees of reduction, and the distribution location showed significant migration. Based on the research results, climate change will lead to the reduction and displacement of the distribution area of typical desert shrubs, while relict shrubs will be less affected by climate change. This is because, compared to desert species, relict plants have a longer evolutionary history and have developed a wider range of adaptations after experiencing dramatic environmental changes. This study provides a scientific basis for actively responding to the impacts of climate change on desert ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper continues the application of the bifurcation analysis in the research on local climate dynamics based on processing the historically observed data on the daily average land surface air temperature. Since the analyzed data are from instrumental measurements, we are doing the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, we focus on the discussion where is the joint between the normal dynamics of local climate systems ( norms) and situations with the potential to create damages ( hazards)? We illustrate that, perhaps, the criteria for hazards (or violent and unfavorable weather factors) relate mainly to empirical considerations from human opinion, but not to the natural qualitative changes of climate dynamics. To build the bifurcation diagrams, we base on the unconventional conceptual model (HDS-model) which originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization. The HDS-model is characterized by a variable structure with the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. Then the intermittency between three periodical processes is considered as the typical behavior of local climate systems instead of both chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of local climate dynamics. From the known specific regularities of the HDS-model dynamics, we try to find a way to decompose the local behaviors into homogeneous units within the time sections with homogeneous dynamics. Here, we present the first results of such decomposition, where the quasi-homogeneous sections (QHS) are determined on the basis of the modified bifurcation diagrams, and the units are reconstructed within the limits connected with the problem of shape defects. Nevertheless, the proposed analysis of the local climate dynamics (QHS-analysis) allows to exhibit how the comparatively modest temperature differences between the mentioned units in an annual scale can step-by-step expand into the great temperature differences of the daily variability at a centennial scale. Then the norms and the hazards relate to the fundamentally different viewpoints, where the time sections of months and, especially, seasons distort the causal effects of natural dynamical processes. The specific circumstances to realize the qualitative changes of the local climate dynamics are summarized by the notion of a likely periodicity. That, in particular, allows to explain why -year averaging remains the most common rule so far, but the decadal averaging begins to substitute that rule. We believe that the QHS-analysis can be considered as the joint between the norms and the hazards from a bifurcation analysis viewpoint, where the causal effects of the local climate dynamics are projected into the customary timescale only at the last step. We believe that the results could be interesting to develop the fields connected with climatic change and risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatic change in the planet has directly impacted in agricultural results. Conversely, the changes that humanity has carried out to produce agricultural products has impacted in the climatic changes, e.g., the deforestation. That is why there exist complex causal relationships between the climate and the agriculture. A mathematical tool, which has proved its efficacy to study causal relationships among different variables, is the cognitive map, where such relationships are straightforwardly represented in form of directed graphs. This idea was generalized when fuzzy cognitive maps were introduced, it is there considered that those relationships can be partial. The neutrosophic cognitive maps generalize even more this technique, in such a way that possibility of indeterminacy among the variables, due to ignorance, contradiction, inconsistency or other causes, is considered. This paper aims to study causal relationships among the climatic vulnerability variables in the agricultural sector. For this end, we applied neutrosophic cognitive maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering Inner Mongolia as the study area, the ecological theory of climate change, and human activities affecting a wide range of biodiversity patterns, MODIS multi-timeseries remote sensing image data were used and the interannual variation index was obtained by the method of fitting the curve to obtain the annual phenological and seasonal indicators. At the same time, the Landsat 8 standard deviation image was calculated to obtain the spatial variation index and generate spatial–temporal remote sensing indices to quantify the threat of climate change to biodiversity. In addition, the impact of human activities on biodiversity was quantified by generating a map of the human footprint in Inner Mongolia. The spatial–temporal remote sensing index and the human footprint index were integrated to identify areas protected from climate change and human activities, respectively. Eventually, the hotspot areas of biodiversity conservation in Inner Mongolia were obtained and priority protected area planning was based on the hotspot identification results. In this study, remote sensing technology was used to identify biodiversity conservation hotspots, which can overcome the limitations of insufficient species data from the past, improve the reliability of large-scale biodiversity conservation analyses, and be used for targeted management actions that have practical significance for biodiversity conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climatic change intensifies the water crisis, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this regard, the provision of enough water for irrigation is a serious dilemma because the agricultural sector consumes the largest amount of water (70% withdrawal and 90% consumption). In this review, we have summarized recent innovations that have emerged as unconventional techniques to supply adequate water for irrigation purposes. We present the principles and basics of seven approaches: the Sahara Forest Project (SFP), water extraction from the air (WEA), aquifer recharge, the treatment of marginal water using a magnetic field, desalination and wastewater treatment (DWT), electro-agric technology (E-AT), and the Toshka Project. The SFP is currently being utilized in Aqaba, Jordan, and DWT is considered a common practice worldwide, whereas some of these innovations are still under investigation to ensure their feasibility for large-scale applications, such as E-AT. The Toshka Project is considered a wonderful idea that utilizes the water stored behind the High Dam in Lake Nasser, Egypt. Several approaches have been adopted to reduce the amount of water being used for irrigation, as the current amount of freshwater is insufficient for the requirements of increased agricultural consumption, particularly in hot, arid, and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate-driven sectoral applications commonly require different types of climate data (e.g. observations, reanalysis, climate change projections) from different providers. Data access, harmonization and post-processing (e.g. bias correction) are time-consuming error-prone tasks requiring different specialized software tools at each stage of the data workflow, thus hindering reproducibility. Here we introduce climate4R, an R-based climate services oriented framework tailored to the needs of the vulnerability and impact assessment community that integrates in the same computing environment harmonized data access, post-processing, visualization and a provenance metadata model for traceability and reproducibility of results. climate4R allows accessing local and remote (OPeNDAP) data sources, such as the Santander User Data Gateway (UDG), a THREDDS-based service including a wide catalogue of popular datasets (e.g. ERA-Interim, CORDEX, etc.). This provides a unique comprehensive open framework for end-to-end sectoral reproducible applications. All the packages, data and documentation for reproducing the experiments in this paper are available from http://www.meteo.unican.es/climate4R. Highlights • climate4R is an R-based framework for accessing and post-processing climate data. • Allows for advanced post-processing: bias correction and statistical downscaling. • Envisaged as a data access layer for the User Data Gateway (UDG). • Provides harmonized access to widely used public datasets (e.g. CORDEX) via UDG. • climate4R favours end-to-end reproducibility of sectoral impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews climate change impacts on the production, physiology, yield, and product quality of vegetables affected by shifting CO 2 and O 3 concentrations, precipitation and temperature conditions, as well as subjected to extreme weather events. The emphasis is on the temperate cool climate of Western Europe. Physiological processes such as respiration and photosynthesis can acclimate to increasing atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures. The effect of increased CO 2 on vegetables is mostly beneficial for production, but may alter internal product quality, or result in photosynthetic down-regulation. Heat stress reduces fruit set of fruiting vegetables, and speeds up development of determinate vegetables, shortening their time for photoassimilation. In both cases, yield losses result with an impaired product quality, thereby increasing production waste. A longer growing season, arising from warmer temperatures, allows a greater number of plantings to be cultivated, contributing to greater annual yields. However, some vegetables need a period of cold accumulation to produce a harvest. Despite the increasing potential for winter cultivation in the future, perennials like asparagus might increasingly suffer from a lack of winter chilling. In cauliflower, higher temperatures will likely cause insufficient vernalization delaying head induction. This review may contribute in improving the adaptation strategies of vegetable production to climate change for a sustainable horticulture due to an effective risk management by meeting the problems of possible waste increase; breeding of new heat, drought and pest tolerant cultivars; secure water resources; increase the use of renewable energy sources; stimulating new ideas in innovative technologies; development of new approaches to secure stable yields and improve the product quality of vegetables for a cleaner production. © Elsevier. All rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos de Turismo is the property of Servicio de Publicaciones de la Universidad de Murcia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Biological invasions are becoming the most serious global environmental threats under changing climate. Beekeeping has faced such invasions with the changing climatic. One of these invaders is the small hive beetle (SHB), which has not yet been encountered in some countries and is currently at a preventable level. SHB can be a highly destructive pest for honey bee colonies, as it damages honey bee comb and larvae, as well as honey and pollen. Although SHB threatens honey bee populations, the impact of climate change on the severity of infestation and its growth rate are still unknown. This apicultural issue is theoretically addressed by using a coupled honey bee–SHB mathematical model in which the rate of SHB growth varies with time to account for changing climate. When the temperature rises, honey bee colonies collapse due to an increase in SHB growth rate, and the severity of the infestation also plays a role in the colony's survival. This study suggests that in the future, global warming will increase colony losses from SHB and may increase the risk of SHBs spreading to regions where it is currently absent, and precautions should be taken to prevent transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early in the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. Many studies have demonstrated that D. pictus competes against native species with similar breeding strategies, pointing out abiotic conditions as the main driver tipping the balance in favor of one or another species. This study aims to assess the impact of the spread of D. pictus on native Iberian Discoglossus and other native species, analyzing the potential roles of long-distance dispersal and long-term climate warming in the Iberian Peninsula. The study area covers the western Mediterranean region, including all Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa, Sicily, the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and targeted species in the Iberian Peninsula, including endemic Discoglossus species. Future projections of climatic change suggest that climatic suitability will increase for all species, both inside and outside the Natura 2000 network, with the only exception being a moderate and widespread decrease for Pelodytes punctatus. However, these positive trends are reversed within Natura 2000 sites where most species are explicitly targeted, jeopardizing the effectiveness of protected areas in a long-distance dispersal scenario. Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of D. pictus for sensitive native species, we examined the impact of long-term climate warming on the basis of niche overlap analysis, taking into account abiotic factors. The study area covered the distribution ranges of all genus Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa (659,784 km2), Sicily (27,711 km2), the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France (699,546 km2). Niche overlap was measured from species environmental spaces extracted via PCA, including climate and relief environmental variables. Current and future climatic suitability for each species was assessed in an ensemble-forecasting framework of species distribution models, built using contemporary species data and climate predictors and projected to 2070′s climatic conditions. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and native and endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. In this context, all species will experience an increase in climatic suitability over the next decades, with the only exception being Pelodytes punctatus, which could be negatively affected by synergies between global warming and cohabitation with D. pictus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate and the hydrological cycle are closely linked; therefore, in the most likely scenarios of climate change, the increase in temperature may influence the expected variation in precipitation variation but will also have a major impact on the availability of water resources in the world in general and in southern Europe in particular. As a case study, it was applied to a western Mediterranean basin altered since antiquity. For this study, the medium and long-term water resources were assessed. The known method Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) has been used. Mainly because due to its great hydrological relevance in mountainous areas, the accumulation and melting of snow. The aim of this research to assess the evolution of runoff distribution and its impact on available water resources under different climate change scenarios. Results: It was observed clearly a decreasing of precipitation and evapotranspiration and otherwise an increasing of temperature. The major climatic effect is that at present, runoff is already much lower than that predicted in the different basin hydrological policy. Specifically for the studied basin, the available resources are expected to decrease by 50% with respect to the current ones, affecting mainly the current agricultural land uses, which should be reconsidered in the medium term. Conclusions: It can be concluded that surface water use policy was calculated with climatic assumptions that are no longer met. Consequently, this research reveals the usefulness of basin-scale climate studies in southern Europe to determine the water resources availability in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The constantly growing human needs for water aiming to supply urban areas or for energy production or irrigation purposes enforces the application of practices leading to its saving. The construction of dams has been continuously increasing in recent years, aiming at the collection and storage of water in the formed reservoirs. The greatest challenge that reservoirs face during their lifetime is the sedimentation caused by debris and by the effects of climate change on water harvesting. The paper presents an investigation on the amount, the position and the height of the debris ending up at the Nipsa reservoir. The assessment of the debris volume produced in the drainage basin was conducted by a geographical information system (GIS) based model, named TopRunDF, also used to predict the sedimentation area and the sediment deposition height in the sedimentation cone. The impact of climate change to the reservoir storage capacity is evaluated with the use of a water balance model triggered by the HadCM2, ECHAM4, CSIRO-MK2, CGCM1, CCSR-98 climate change models. The results predict a significant future decrease in the stored water volume of the reservoir, and therefore several recommendations are proposed for the proper future functioning and operation of the reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the trend of sea surface wind is important for understanding the response of the marine environment to climate change. Analysis of wind data reveals that the summer wind direction in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) shifts anticlockwise at a rate of −0.36°yr−1 over the past 42 years (1979–2020). The mean wind direction in July shifts from 183.6° (in 1979) to 169.3° (in 2020) and is predicted as 142.1° by 2100. How this long-term wind direction change affects the PRE hydrodynamic circulation structure has not been examined yet. A fully calibrated high resolution 3D hydrodynamic model is used to evaluate the response of local hydrodynamics to wind direction shifting in this study. The model results indicate that both the cross-channel wind-driven transport and along-channel seaward flow are weakened as wind direction shifts. Consequently, the lateral circulation is slowed down significantly while the longitudinal exchange flow is weakened slightly. A remarkable increase in stratification occurs in the coastal sea adjacent to the Modaomen where hypoxia has been frequently reported. The residence time of Lingding Bay increases slightly. The Momentum budget indicates the wind direction shifting can cause major changes in the barotropic pressure term, which is mainly balanced by the baroclinic pressure term and diffusion term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Lambayeque Valley on the north coast of Peru offers a cautionary case study on the relation between climatic and cultural change. Three archaeological site complexes dating from late in the first millennium AD to the middle of the second millennium AD rose and were abandoned in sequence. Each abandonment was associated with a conflagration on the main pyramidal mound(s). In this region, El Niño is the most significant climatic disruption now and for millennia past. By tracking proxy records for El Niño intensity, we found that only the first episode of abandonment and burning was associated with a strong peak in El Niño intensity, while the final episode was the outcome of the Spanish Conquest of the Andes, a distinctly non-climatic driver. These records suggest that equifinality is operative and urge caution in over-interpreting climate as culture-changing catastrophe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ombroxeric index (OXI), a drought-indicative bioclimatic index based on the Rivas-Martínez Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS), was used in this work to establish the ombroxericity trends in a defined study area: the province of Leon (Spain). On the basis of large time-scale climatological gridded databases (MOPREDAS and MOTEDAS), with data from 1951 to 2010 at monthly, seasonal an annual study level, a Mann-Kendall test-based trend analysis was carried out and a geostatistical interpolation procedure, Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK), was applied. Statistically significant increases were revealed in the months of March and June, as well as in the summer period. These increments are greater in the southernmost areas and could be related with changes in some teleconnection patterns. With this up-to-date approach, besides being aware of the direct bioclimatealtering consequences of the climate change, the prediction of the implications in the vegetation is made possible, due to the typological-predictive character of the model of climate-vegetation reciprocity provided by the WBCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on range shifts in climatically suitable habitats of tree species is important for national afforestation planning, which can enhance the adaptation of tree plantation to climate change through movement of tree to follow suitable climatic conditions. Here, we overlap the current and future climate-related ranges of Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis), an important tree used for afforestation in China, to estimate the range shift in three geographic dimensions (latitude, longitude and elevation) between 2000 and 2070, which are projected by the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) under current climate conditions and four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results show that the performance of the MaxEnt is highly accurate, with test AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) value of 0.91, Kappa value of 0.83 and predicted accuracy of 92%. About 10.7% area of land in China is climatically suitable for Chinese sea buckthorn plantation. Low representative concentration paths will have more effect on loss of climatic range and less effect on expansion of climatic range for Chinese sea buckthorn, while the impacts of high representative concentration path is the opposite. The centroids of climatic ranges will shift westward or northwestward at the rate of 10.4–22 km per decade, and the centroids of altitude will shift upward at the rate of 43–128 m per decade. The expansion area of climatically suitable habitat, covering 2.6–5.2 × 105 km2, is expected to be mainly located in parts of Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Sichuan, Liaoning, and Jilin provinces; these areas should be monitored for planting of Chinese sea buckthorn in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs a cross-sectional Ricardian Model to investigate impact of temperature and rainfall on wheat growers’ net-return in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan. Data for this purpose are collected from 255 wheat growers, selected from Southern, Central and Northern climatic zones of KP. Results from descriptive statistical analysis demonstrate that net-return per acre from wheat crop is highest in the Central zone because of conducive agro-climatic conditions. The estimated Cross-sectional Ricardian Model reveals that temperature and rainfall have non-linear relationships with net-return per acre. The relationship between growers’ net-return and atmospheric temperature, represented with a temperature response curve, is inverted U shaped having a yield maximizing temperature level of 25°C. The rainfall response curve for net-return is U shaped and the minimum net-return rainfall level is 89.6mm. Forecasting of net-returns for the whole KP reveals that an increase in temperature by 2°C from current average level could reduce wheat growers’ net-return by 37 percent. Increase in rainfall by 20 percent from current level could increase net-return by 6 percent. In the Central and Southern climatic zones of KP, where average monthly temperature in wheat season is above 25°C, wheat growers’ net return per acre could be hugely affected by temperature increase due to climate change. This change in temperature could positively affect wheat growers’ net-return in the Northern zone. Development of new seed varieties with increased heat tolerance and provision of timely and sufficient water for irrigation would be helpful in reducing future potential losses to wheat growers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming causes rapid shrinking of mountain glaciers. New lakes can, thus, form in the future where overdeepenings in the beds of still-existing glaciers are becoming exposed. Such new lakes can be amplifiers of natural hazards to downstream populations, but also constitute tourist attractions, offer new potential for hydropower, and may be of interest for water management. Identification of sites where future lakes will possibly form is, therefore, an essential step to initiate early planning of measures for risk reduction and sustainable use as part of adaptation strategies with respect to impacts from climate change. In order to establish a corresponding knowledge base, a systematic inventory of glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes was compiled for the still glacierized parts of the Peruvian Andes using the 2003-2010 glacier outlines from the national glacier inventory and the SRTM DEM from the year 2000. The resulting inventory contains 201 sites with overdeepened glacier beds >1 ha (104 m²) where notable future lakes could form, representing a total volume of about 260 million m³. A rough classification was assigned for the most likely formation time of the possible new lakes. Such inventory information sets the stage for analyzing sustainable use and hazard/risk for specific basins or regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Predicted increases in the frequency and duration of drought are expected to negatively affect tree vitality, but we know little about how water shortage will influence needle anatomy and thereby the trees' photosynthetic and hydraulic capacity. In this study, we evaluated anatomical changes in sun and shade needles of 20-year-old Norway spruce trees exposed to artificial drought stress. Canopy position was found to be important for needle structure, as sun needles had significantly higher values than shade needles for all anatomical traits (i.e., cross-sectional needle area, number of tracheids in needle, needle hydraulic conductivity, and tracheid lumen area), except proportion of xylem area per cross-sectional needle area. In sun needles, drought reduced all trait values by 10-40%, whereas in shade needles, only tracheid maximum diameter was reduced by drought. Due to the relatively weaker response of shade needles than sun needles in drought-stressed trees, the difference between the two needle types was reduced by 25% in the drought-stressed trees compared to the control trees. The observed changes in needle anatomy provide new understanding of how Norway spruce adapts to drought stress and may improve predictions of how forests will respond to global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]