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The proliferation of green industrial policy strategies around the world is taking place within a broader global context of a turn toward deglobalization and the pursuit of national self-sufficiency. The political economy of domestic renewable energy support and the basic principles of global trade regimes are in direct conflict, with direct implications for nations' abilities to transition to low-carbon economies. Many are calling for decoupling clean energy supply chains from China, yet such responses could slow the global clean energy transition, increasing the cost of deployment in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) scenarios provide opportunities to explore global climate and pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features, but they might be limited on regional-scale projections due to inadequate consideration of local policies. Here, we simulated China's PM2.5 air quality with local policy-based scenarios (Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC)) and the CMIP6 scenarios. We found both emission inventories can reproduce China's base-year PM2.5 and chemical aerosols while using DPEC emissions could better match in-situ observations. In addition, DPEC mitigation scenarios can better capture China's PM2.5 decline during 2015-2019 (22% under SSP2-45-policy and 30% under SSP1-26-best) with observations (~28%) than CMIP6 emissions. With the effects of current-year bias and inadequate considerations of pollution control policies, PM2.5 projections in 2030 and 2050 with CMIP6 mitigation scenarios are 42%-48% (9-13 µg/m3) and 59%-73% (8-12 µg/m3) higher than projections with DEPC. Our study suggests the community should incorporate more region-specific environmental policy in future scenario designs. Plain Language Summary Global emission scenarios might be limited on regional-scale air quality projections because of inadequate consideration of local environmental policy. Here, we simulated China's air quality variations through 2050 with global emission data sets and local policy-based emission scenarios. Both global and local emissions can reasonably estimate China's air quality; however, estimations with local emission scenarios are more correlated with surface observations and can better capture China's rapid air quality improvement during 2015-2019. Local policy deficiencies and current year bias further make future air quality projections driven by global emission scenarios 42%-73% higher than driven by local policy-based scenarios. Our findings could offer insights for the research community to incorporate more detailed regional information in future global scenario designs, which might help to better investigate the climate change impacts and improve global scenario applicability to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of using green finance policies to prevent climate-related systemic risk (CRSR) while promoting low-carbon production is of great concern. Despite its significance for a stable transition to low-carbon energy, this topic remains underexplored in the literature. Our study examines the impact of monetary policies promoting low-carbon development on CRSR based on China's low-carbon transition scenario. To achieve this, we develop a financial network model with a forward-looking climate stress-testing framework. This model captures banks' heterogeneous behaviors regarding carbon asset allocation and the systemic feedback effects of climate policy shocks in a multilayer network. Our findings reveal that targeted reductions in the required reserve ratio (RRR) and carbon reduction re-lending policies have significant and distinct effects on CRSR. We also observe that larger banks tend to have higher systemic importance and are more responsive to adjustments in low-carbon monetary policies. By contrast, relatively smaller banks demonstrate greater vulnerability to climate policy shocks. Additionally, these policies influence CRSR through mechanisms involving credit restructuring and interbank network interconnectedness. This study provides valuable insights for enhancing low-carbon financial policies and facilitating a stable low-carbon transition. • The impact of monetary policies promoting low-carbon development on climate-related systemic risk (CRSR) is analyzed. • A financial network with a climate stress-testing framework in China's low-carbon transition scenario is constructed. • Targeted reductions in the required reserve ratio (RRR) and carbon reduction re-lending policies significantly affect CRSR. • Their impact shows apparent differences in quantity- and price-based adjustments. • Influencing mechanisms based on credit restructuring and interbank network interconnectedness are verified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Individual Low-carbon Behavior Rewarding System (ILBRS) is a new Chinese environmental policy that aims to guide public participation in sustainable development through applying a range of incentive mechanisms. It is regarded as an important and effective way of reducing carbon emissions in response to climate change. However, knowledge of the influencing factors of support for the ILBRS is still scattered and lacks systematic analysis. This study is one of the first literatures to explore public support for ILBRS through a large sample of longitudinal data relying on psychological theory. Based on the Responsible Environmental Behavior model, we established a mechanism that consists of three levels of factors affecting public support for the ILBRS. These factors involve individual characteristics, individual perception, and willingness of performing other low-carbon behaviors. The results of a longitudinal panel survey at one-year interval with 2,324 valid responses indicated that connectedness to nature, perception that climate change is happening, willingness to sort waste and to use green energy could significantly and positively predict public support for the ILBRS. Based on the findings of this study, we provide practical suggestions for policy makers to further improve the implementation of the ILBRS by raising public awareness of climate change and integrating it with other relevant environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission reduction (CER) comes to be the principle in most countries particularly China, the largest carbon emitter. For finding an efficient solution, the priority is to find the key impact factors (KIFs) of carbon emission. Previous studies for identifying KIFs, which partially selected only a few potential impact factors (PIFs), are inconsistent in their findings. This study aims to explore the KIFs of carbon emission in China among 43 PIFs, which comprehensively covers 30 relevant studies. The KIFs in China are identified using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model with correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) China's carbon emission has five KIFs: the real GDP per capita, urbanization rate, ratio of tertiary to secondary industry, ratio of renewable energy, and fixed assets investment; (2) the most significant carbon emission contributor is real GDP per capita and the most significant carbon emission inhibitor is urbanization rate. This study provides the reliable KIFs for governors' targeted decision-making on CER, and policy implications from the identified KIFs are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon mitigation has received increasing attention for its potential contribution to both climate change mitigation and air pollution control. Although different bottom-up models concerned with unit mitigation costs of various technologies allow the assessment of alternative policies for optimized cost-effectiveness, the lack of adequate data often forced many reluctant explicit and implicit assumptions that deviate away from actual situations of rural residential energy consumption in developing countries, where most black carbon emissions occur. To gauge the theory-practice gap in black carbon mitigation – the unit cost differences that lie between what is estimated in the theory and what is practically achieved on the ground – this study conducted an extensive field survey and analysis of nine mitigation technologies in rural China, covering both northern and southern regions with different residential energy consumption patterns. With a special focus on two temporal characteristics of those technologies – lifetimes and annual utilization rates, this study quantitatively measured the unit cost gaps and explain the technical as well as sociopolitical mechanisms behind. Structural and behavioral barriers, which have affected the technologies’ performance, are discussed together with policy implications to narrow those gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has the world’s highest levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and its adoption of optimal measures to address climate change is extremely important. In this article, we assess the performance of various Chinese policies aimed at addressing climate change in terms of cost effectiveness, cost-benefit efficiency, and their contribution to a reduction in emissions with a new single-region model, DEMETER-CCPE. Our analysis shows that the performance of these Chinese policies strongly depends on the principles and indicators used in the evaluation. When climate-specific cost indicators are considered, the mixed policy performs best in terms of cost reduction. When cost-efficiency indicators are used, a single policy performs better to some extent. From the perspective of evaluating the contribution to emissions reduction, the development of non-fossil-fuel-based energy technologies offers the greatest opportunity for reducing emissions in a mixed-policy scenario. Finally, this article study possible ‘burden’ and ‘free-rider’ scenarios in order to explore the effect of different levels of joint actions between China and the rest of the world (ROW) on a performance evaluation of policies to address climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, we decomposed factors affecting the national carbon intensity (NCI) in China at a multi-regional level. A comparative analysis of regional contributions in different Five-Year Plan (5YP) periods revealed that the energy structure had inhibitory effects on NCI during the 9th and 10th 5YP periods, but had promoting effects during the 11th and start of the 12th 5YP periods. The energy structure had a strong inhibitory impact in eastern, north-eastern, and northern regions of China, but only a slight impact in central, northern, south-western, and north-western regions. Energy intensity is a major factor and had a strong inhibitory effect on NCI except during the 10th 5YP period. Energy intensity had a strong inhibitory effect in eastern and northern regions, but only a slight impact in north-western and southern regions, especially in Hainan, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Qinghai provinces. Overall, proportional output in China had a promoting effect on NCI, which indicates regional economic development was not coordinated. The combined effects of regional carbon intensity (RCI) and proportional output determined changes in NCI, and RCI had a strong effect on NCI. Regions with high proportional output and large carbon emissions had a great impact on NCI. The total effect in developed areas such as eastern, northern, and north-eastern regions was strongly inhibitory, while the impact was slight in relatively less developed areas such as northwestern and southern regions. Some policy implications arising from our study results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. To alleviate severe soil erosion and desertification due to deforestation and overgrazing, China has implemented historically unprecedented large-scale afforestation. However, few studies have accounted for the resulting imbalance between water supply (primarily precipitation) and water consumption (evapotranspiration), which will affect ecosystem health and socioeconomic development. We compared the water balance results between restoration by means of afforestation and restoration using the potential natural vegetation to guide future ecological restoration planning and environmental policy development. Based on estimates of water consumption from seven evapotranspiration models, we discuss the consequences for water security using data obtained since 1952 under China's large-scale afforestation program. The models estimated that afforestation will increase water consumption by 559–2354 m 3 /ha annually compared with natural vegetation. Although afforestation is a potentially important approach for environmental restoration, China's current policy has not been tailored to local precipitation conditions, and will have therefore exacerbated water shortages and decrease the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. Our analysis shows how, both in China and around the world, future ecological restoration planning must account for the water balance to ensure effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New developments in consumption-based emissions accounting suggest that the reductions claimed by wealthy, environmentally progressive nations have often come at the expense of increased emissions elsewhere – and thus net growth in global GHG concentrations. This paper traces Sweden's attempts to translate growing recognition of displaced emissions into national environmental policy. Drawing on multi-sited ethnographic research and policy analysis in Sweden and China, we argue that while the logical implications of consumption-based analyses point to the need to address production and consumption as an integrated system, complex governance challenges and the political precariousness of these ideas have thus far limited policy to the reinvention of consumer awareness campaigns and an international extension of long-standing ecological efficiency efforts. We argue that consumption-based emissions indicators justify more ambitious demand-side policy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates how carbon price affects diffusion of low carbon technologies using data collected from 60 iron & steel companies in China. The analysis indicates that the industry is familiar with related key energy saving and low carbon technologies and has made much progress in energy saving, but efforts in carbon management need improving. An average payback time threshold of 4.1 years was found as regards decision in invest in technology. The three target technologies were adopted by companies to different extents. Carbon emissions pricing was found to be ineffective in promoting the scale-up or further adoption of economically advantageous technologies such as dry top pressure recovery turbine (Dry TRT) and energy management centre (EMC) technology. A moderate carbon price for sintering waste heat recovery power generation (Sintering WHR), which has adoption potential in China's iron & steel industry, may generate comparatively significant effects for diffusion. This research sheds light on how diffusion of low carbon technologies would be affected and the consequences thereof on climate policy development for the target sector in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability--with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north-increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content to build China's domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces, in addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China's domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China's soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km3/y irrigation water savings, 41 km3/y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g.. Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Threats posed by global climate change have heightened the urgency for economies to transition to sustainability. However, quantitative metrics that measure sustainability status remain under development, hampered in part by the difficulty of identifying clear relationships between economic growth and sustainability. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis provides a framework for describing sustainability status relative to socioeconomic development. In this study, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was adopted to investigate statistical relationships between the carbon intensity of human well-being (as an indicator of sustainability) and economic development in eight economic zones of China during 1997–2015. The results provide new evidence that seven of eight Chinese economic zones began advances to sustainability (defined here as downward turning points marked by inverted "N" shapes in the Environmental Kuznets Curve) between 2012 and 2015. The lone exception was the Northwestern economic zone, in which an approach to sustainability had not yet occurred by 2015. This study thus supports the contention that environmental policies and technologies have contributed to improving sustainability in terms of carbon intensity. The results suggest two strategic options for further increasing sustainability in China: 1) "first help the weakest"; and 2) "first help the latest to sustainability". • Advance to sustainability defined in terms of carbon intensity of human well-being. • Almost all economic zones in China began advances to sustainability around 2013. • Only the Northwestern economic zone had yet to reach a turning point by 2015. • Assessment shows progress toward international obligations and national objectives. • Both environmental policies and technological advances have contributed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]