Search

Aims: We aimed to determine the effectiveness of surveillance using testing for SARS-CoV-2 to identify an outbreak arising from a single case of border control failure in a country that has eliminated community transmission of COVID-19: New Zealand., Methods: A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1 designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. It was seeded with New Zealand population data and relevant parameters sourced from the New Zealand and international literature., Results: For what we regard as the most plausible scenario with an effective reproduction number of 2.0, the results suggest that 95% of outbreaks from a single imported case would be detected in the period up to day 36 after introduction. At the time point of detection, there would be a median number of five infected cases in the community (95% range: 1-29). To achieve this level of detection, an ongoing programme of 5,580 tests per day (1,120 tests per million people per day) for the New Zealand population would be required. The vast majority of this testing (96%) would be of symptomatic cases in primary care settings and the rest in hospitals., Conclusions: This model-based analysis suggests that a surveillance system with a very high level of routine testing is probably required to detect an emerging or re-emerging SARS-CoV-2 outbreak within five weeks of a border control failure in a nation that had previously eliminated COVID-19. Nevertheless, there are plausible strategies to enhance testing yield and cost-effectiveness and potential supplementary surveillance systems such as the testing of town/city sewerage systems for the pandemic virus., Competing Interests: Dr Verrall reports this paper was written in Dr Verrall's capacity as Senior Lecturer at the University of Otago, not in her capacity as a candidate for Parliament. The views in this paper are not necessarily the views of the New Zealand Labour Party.

For many years, students have been taught to visualise data by drawing graphs. Recently, there has been a growing trend to teach statistics, particularly statistical concepts, using interactive and dynamic visualisation tools. Free down-loadable teaching and simulation software designed specifically for schools, and more general data visualisation tools are increasingly being used in New Zealand classrooms. This paper discusses four examples: the use of GenStat for Teaching and Learning Schools and Undergraduate (GTL); Auckland University's iNZight and VIT (Visual Inference Tools) for teaching bootstrapping and randomisation; the CAST e-books, and the use of data visualisation tools to assist learning concepts in official statistics. All these tools are publically available and several are already being used internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Material responses and compression capacities of press-braked S690 angle and channel section stub columns were studied. • Thirty-six tensile flat and corner coupon tests on press-braked S690 angle and channel sections were conducted. • A total of twenty-four press-braked S690 angle and channel section stub columns were tested. • Numerical models were developed and validated against test results, and then used to perform parametric studies. • Current design codes and direct strength method were assessed against test and numerical results. This paper reports an experimental and numerical investigation into the cross-section behaviour and compression resistances of press-braked S690 high strength steel angle and channel section stub columns. The experimental study was carried out on four equal-leg angle sections and eight plain channel sections with a range of cross-section sizes (covering both non-slender and slender sections), and included thirty-six material tensile flat and corner coupon tests, initial local geometric imperfection measurements and twenty-four concentrically loaded stub column tests. The experimental study was then supplemented by a numerical modelling programme, where numerical models were firstly developed to simulate the test structural responses and subsequently adopted to derive further numerical data. The experimentally and numerically derived results were utilised to assess the applicability of the Eurocode Class 3 slenderness limits for hot-rolled and welded sections to their cold-formed (press-braked) counterparts. The results of the assessment generally revealed that the Eurocode Class 3 slenderness limits for hot-rolled and welded sections can be safely adopted for the classification of press-braked (cold-formed) S690 high strength steel angle and channel sections subjected to compression. The accuracy of the codified design provisions established in Europe, North America and Australia/New Zealand as well as the direct strength method (DSM) to the design of press-braked S690 high strength steel angle and channel section stub columns was also assessed, based on the test data and numerical results. The North American, Australian and New Zealand standards were found to result in accurate and consistent compression capacity predictions for press-braked S690 high strength steel channel section and non-slender angle section stub columns, but greatly underestimate the compression capacities for those slender angle section stub columns, while the European code and DSM were shown to yield overall precise and consistent design compression capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Flexural behaviour of press-braked S960 UHSS channel section beams were studied. • 20 beam tests were performed about the minor axes in the u and n orientations. • Numerical simulations and parametric studies were conducted. • The applicability of the design codes was assessed based on test and FE results. A thorough experimental and numerical study of the flexural behaviour and strengths of press-braked S960 ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) channel section beams bent about the minor principal axes is reported in this paper. The experimental study was conducted on eight different UHSS plain channel sections, and included measurements on the material flat and corner properties and initial local geometric imperfections of the beam specimens as well as 20 four-point bending tests performed about the minor principal axes in both the 'u' and 'n' orientations. A complementary numerical investigation was then conducted, where finite element (FE) models were firstly developed and validated against the experimental results, followed by parametric studies carried out to acquire further numerical data over a broader range of cross-section dimensions. It is worth noting that the existing design codes for steel structures, as established in Europe, America and Australia/New Zealand, are only applicable to those with material grades up to S690 (or S700 for Eurocode) and cannot be directly used for S960 UHSS structural members. In the present study, the applicability of the codified design provisions and formulations for flexural members to the examined S960 UHSS channel section beams was evaluated, based on the ultimate moments derived from structural testing and numerical modelling. The quantitative evaluation results generally revealed that the current European code provides overall consistent and precise flexural strength predictions for Class 1 and Class 2 S960 UHSS channel sections in minor-axis bending, but leads to a high level of inaccuracy (scatter and conservatism) for the design of their Class 3 and Class 4 counterparts, whilst the American specification and Australian/New Zealand standard result in scattered and excessively underestimated design flexural strengths, except for the cases of slender S960 UHSS channel section beams in 'u'-orientation bending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong southerly winds regularly occur in the Cook Strait region of New Zealand. Occasionally, these winds are strong enough to cause severe damage to property and threaten human life. One example of a storm containing such winds is the "Wellington Storm," which occurred on 20 June 2013. For this case, wind speeds in Cook Strait were stronger than those observed or forecast elsewhere in the storm. Even though wind speeds of this intensity are rare, storms affecting New Zealand with central pressures equal to the Wellington Storm (~976 hPa) are not uncommon. Numerical experiments have been carried out to investigate the possible reasons for the exceptional damaging southerly winds (DSWs) occurring in this storm. Analyses of the simulations showed that DSWs in Cook Strait for this event were actually barrier jets, not gap winds as they appeared. The strength of barrier jets in Cook Strait is sensitive to the precise location of the storm center. This explains the uncommon occurrence of DSWs in Cook Strait. Numerical experiments that used scaled (either increased or decreased) New Zealand orography showed that the barrier jets became shallower and weaker when the mountain top heights were lower. This decrease in barrier jet strength with mountain height is largely consistent with the results from linear-scale analyses in previous publications. This result implies that numerical simulations using a lower topography than actual (usually the case in current operational NWP) may lead to errors in timing and in forecasting the strength of the damaging winds associated with barrier jets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used numerical models to simulate transient groundwater age distributions using a time-marching Laplace transform Galerkin (TMLTG) technique. First, the TMLTG technique was applied to simple box models configured to match idealized lumped parameter models (LPMs). Even for simple box models, time-varying recharge can generate groundwater age distributions with highly irregular shapes that vary over time in response to individual recharge events. Notably, the transient numerical simulations showed that the breakthrough and mean ages are younger than in the steady flow case, and that this difference is greater for sporadic recharge time series than for more regular recharge time series. Second, the TMLTG technique was applied to a transient numerical model of the 270 km2 Middle Wairarapa Valley, New Zealand. To our knowledge this study is the first application of the TMLTG technique to a real-world example, made possible by the data set of tritium measurements that exists for the Wairarapa Valley. Results from a transient mean age simulation shows variation from a few days to over a decade in either temporal or spatial dimensions. Temporal variations of mean age are dependent on seasonal climate and groundwater abstraction. Results also demonstrated important differences between the transient age distributions derived from the TMLTG technique compared to the much simpler steady-state LPMs that are frequently applied to interpret age tracer data. Finally, results had direct application to land and water management, for example for identification of land areas where age distributions vary seasonally, affecting the security of groundwater supplies used for drinking water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Geographic perspectives of disease and the human condition often involve point-based observations and questions of clustering or dispersion within a spatial context. These problems involve a finite set of point observations and are constrained by a larger, but finite, set of locations where the observations could occur. Developing a rigorous method for pattern analysis in this context requires handling spatial covariates, a method for constrained finite spatial clustering, and addressing bias in geographic distance measures. An approach, based on Ripley's K and applied to the problem of clustering with deliberate self-harm (DSH), is presented.Methods: Point-based Monte-Carlo simulation of Ripley's K, accounting for socio-economic deprivation and sources of distance measurement bias, was developed to estimate clustering of DSH at a range of spatial scales. A rotated Minkowski L1 distance metric allowed variation in physical distance and clustering to be assessed. Self-harm data was derived from an audit of 2 years' emergency hospital presentations (n = 136) in a New Zealand town (population ~50,000). Study area was defined by residential (housing) land parcels representing a finite set of possible point addresses.Results: Area-based deprivation was spatially correlated. Accounting for deprivation and distance bias showed evidence for clustering of DSH for spatial scales up to 500 m with a one-sided 95 % CI, suggesting that social contagion may be present for this urban cohort.Conclusions: Many problems involve finite locations in geographic space that require estimates of distance-based clustering at many scales. A Monte-Carlo approach to Ripley's K, incorporating covariates and models for distance bias, are crucial when assessing health-related clustering. The case study showed that social network structure defined at the neighbourhood level may account for aspects of neighbourhood clustering of DSH. Accounting for covariate measures that exhibit spatial clustering, such as deprivation, are crucial when assessing point-based clustering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]