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Reading primary research literature is an essential skill for all scientists and students on science degree programmes, however little is known about how researchers at different career stages interact with and interpret scientific papers. To explore this, we conducted a survey of 260 undergraduate students and researchers in Biological Sciences at a research intensive UK university. Responses to Likert scale questions demonstrated increases in confidence and skill with reading the literature between individuals at each career stage, including between postdoctoral researchers and faculty academics. The survey indicated that individuals at different career stages valued different sections of scientific papers, and skill in reading the results section develops slowly over the course of an academic career. Inexperienced readers found the methods and results sections of research papers the most difficult to read, and undervalued the importance of the results section and critical interpretation of data. These data highlight a need for structured support with reading scientific literature at multiple career stages, and for senior academics to be aware that junior colleagues may prioritise their reading differently. We propose a model for the development of literature processing skills, and consider the need for training strategies to help inexperienced readers engage with primary literature, and therefore develop important skills that underpin scientific careers. We also encourage researchers to be mindful of language used when writing papers, and to be more inclusive of diverse audiences when disseminating their work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work was focused to design a cheap, rapid, portable and easy to use filter paper based assay for the qualitative and quantitate analysis of acetone. Sodium alginate gel was loaded with the acetone specific optical signal probe, and subsequently coated onto filter paper surface to design portable colorimetric assays for acetone monitoring. The color of the paper sensor strip was observed to change from dark yellow to light yellowish in the presence of varying concentrations of acetone. Three different color analyzing models including RGB, HSV, and LAB were employed to probe the output optical signal, and their performance was compared in terms of better interpretation of the generated signal. The LAB model was found to provide better analytical figures of merit with a linear response for the acetone concentration ranging from 2.5 to 1500 ppm, and a limit of detection of 0.5 ppm. Furthermore, the specificity of the designed filter paper based sensor was demonstrated against different common interfering compounds. The results demonstrated the potential of our proposed filter paper based sensor as a novel tool for the analysis of acetone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poor research reporting is a major contributing factor to low study reproducibility, financial and animal waste. The ARRIVE (Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments) guidelines were developed to improve reporting quality and many journals support these guidelines. The influence of this support is unknown. We hypothesized that papers published in journals supporting the ARRIVE guidelines would show improved reporting compared with those in non-supporting journals. In a retrospective, observational cohort study, papers from 5 ARRIVE supporting (SUPP) and 2 non-supporting (nonSUPP) journals, published before (2009) and 5 years after (2015) the ARRIVE guidelines, were selected. Adherence to the ARRIVE checklist of 20 items was independently evaluated by two reviewers and items assessed as fully, partially or not reported. Mean percentages of items reported were compared between journal types and years with an unequal variance t-test. Individual items and sub-items were compared with a chi-square test. From an initial cohort of 956, 236 papers were included: 120 from 2009 (SUPP; n = 52, nonSUPP; n = 68), 116 from 2015 (SUPP; n = 61, nonSUPP; n = 55). The percentage of fully reported items was similar between journal types in 2009 (SUPP: 55.3 ± 11.5% [SD]; nonSUPP: 51.8 ± 9.0%; p = 0.07, 95% CI of mean difference -0.3–7.3%) and 2015 (SUPP: 60.5 ± 11.2%; nonSUPP; 60.2 ± 10.0%; p = 0.89, 95%CI -3.6–4.2%). The small increase in fully reported items between years was similar for both journal types (p = 0.09, 95% CI -0.5–4.3%). No paper fully reported 100% of items on the ARRIVE checklist and measures associated with bias were poorly reported. These results suggest that journal support for the ARRIVE guidelines has not resulted in a meaningful improvement in reporting quality, contributing to ongoing waste in animal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To evaluate the relative efficiencies of five Internet-based digital and three paper-based scientific surveys and to estimate the costs for different-sized cohorts. Methods: Invitations to participate in a survey were distributed via e-mail to employees of two university hospitals (E1 and E2) and to members of a medical association (E3), as a link placed in a special text on the municipal homepage regularly read by the administrative employees of two cities (H1 and H2), and paper-based to workers at an automobile enterprise (P1) and college (P2) and senior (P3) students. The main parameters analyzed included the numbers of invited and actual participants, and the time and cost to complete the survey. Statistical analysis was descriptive, except for the Kruskal-Wallis-H-test, which was used to compare the three recruitment methods. Cost efficiencies were compared and extrapolated to different-sized cohorts. Results: The ratios of completely answered questionnaires to distributed questionnaires were between 81.5% (E1) and 97.4% (P2). Between 6.4% (P1) and 57.0% (P2) of the invited participants completely answered the questionnaires. The costs per completely answered questionnaire were $0.57–$1.41 (E1–3), $1.70 and $0.80 for H1 and H2, respectively, and $3.36–$4.21 (P1–3). Based on our results, electronic surveys with 10, 20, 30, or 42 questions would be estimated to be most cost (and time) efficient if more than 101.6–225.9 (128.2–391.7), 139.8–229.2 (93.8–193.6), 165.8–230.6 (68.7–115.7), or 188.2–231.5 (44.4–72.7) participants were required, respectively. Conclusions: The study efficiency depended on the technical modalities of the survey methods and engagement of the participants. Depending on our study design, our results suggest that in similar projects that will certainly have more than two to three hundred required participants, the most efficient way of conducting a questionnaire-based survey is likely via the Internet with a digital questionnaire, specifically via a centralized e-mail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists often perceive a trade-off between quantity and quality in scientific publishing: finite amounts of time and effort can be spent to produce few high-quality papers or subdivided to produce many papers of lower quality. Despite this perception, previous studies have indicated the opposite relationship, in which productivity (publishing more papers) is associated with increased paper quality (usually measured by citation accumulation). We examine this question in a novel way, comparing members of the National Academy of Sciences with themselves across years, and using a much larger dataset than previously analyzed. We find that a member’s most highly cited paper in a given year has more citations in more productive years than in in less productive years. Their lowest cited paper each year, on the other hand, has fewer citations in more productive years. To disentangle the effect of the underlying distributions of citations and productivities, we repeat the analysis for hypothetical publication records generated by scrambling each author’s citation counts among their publications. Surprisingly, these artificial histories re-create the above trends almost exactly. Put another way, the observed positive relationship between quantity and quality can be interpreted as a consequence of randomly drawing citation counts for each publication: more productive years yield higher-cited papers because they have more chances to draw a large value. This suggests that citation counts, and the rewards that have come to be associated with them, may be more stochastic than previously appreciated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial sanctions are often thought of as the “soft alternative” to armed conflict and are widely used in the 21st century. Nonetheless, sanctions are often criticized for being non-specific in their action, and having impact beyond their intended remit. One often-overlooked area affected by sanctions are academic systems of research and education. Sanctions place “invisible barriers” for research in these countries by limiting access to necessary resources and curtailing their effective use. In this paper we present a national survey of Sudanese academics focused on the impact of 20 years of economic sanctions on their work. It identifies key areas of academic research and education that have been impacted by international sanctions. Moreover, these data highlight how the impact of sanctions on academia is likely to persist long after they are formally lifted. The paper concludes by problematising the current interpretation of jus post bellum, or moral behaviour after conflict. It suggests that the responsibility to make reparations in the form of support for academic systems applies to countries who impose economic sanctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personal motivation is a key factor in the service of foster care, impending both on the welfare of the child and on the satisfaction of the carer. This paper explores the benefits, challenges and dilemmas involved in the job of professional (i.e. state-supported) foster carer in Romania–a country where the issue of child protection has drawn a great deal of international attention over the last thirty years. The principal hypothesis concerns whether the benefits, challenges and dilemmas identified by foster carers are influenced by the factors that led to their taking up this kind of work. Quantitative research was conducted using a questionnaire as the main tool. The paper takes a descriptive, cross-sectional and multifactorial approach. Sampling was carried out by self-selecting method, and the study involved 51 participants. The research project identified a statistically significant variation in the challenges and dilemmas reported by foster carers. Thus, the results of the study show that the majority of the carers indicate a primarily intrinsic motivation for their work. By way of conclusion, it is argued that social workers, operating in collaboration with multidisciplinary teams, can offer carers support in managing more difficult periods in the child–carer relationship, thus enhancing the sustainability of the foster care service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an established risk factor for cardiovascular and nephropathic events. In the Netherlands, prevalence of T2DM is expected to be as high as 8% by 2025. This will result in significant clinical and economic impact, highlighting the need for well-informed reimbursement decisions for new treatments. However, availability and consistent use of costing methodologies is limited. Objective: We aimed to systematically review recent costing data for T2DM-related cardiovascular and nephropathic events in the Netherlands. Methods: A systematic literature review in PubMed and Embase was conducted to identify available Dutch cost data for T2DM-related events, published in the last decade. Information extracted included costs, source, study population, and costing perspective. Finally, papers were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS). Results: Out of initially 570 papers, 36 agreed with the inclusion criteria. From these studies, 150 cost estimates for T2DM-related clinical events were identified. In total, 29 cost estimates were reported for myocardial infarction (range: €196-€27,038), 61 for stroke (€495-€54,678), fifteen for heart failure (€325-€16,561), 24 for renal failure (€2,438-€91,503), and seventeen for revascularisation (€3,000-€37,071). Only four estimates for transient ischaemic attack were available, ranging from €587 to €2,470. Adherence to CHEERS was generally high. Conclusions: The most expensive clinical events were related to renal failure, while TIA was the least expensive event. Generally, there was substantial variation in reported cost estimates for T2DM-related events. Costing of clinical events should be improved and preferably standardised, as accurate and consistent results in economic models are desired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classifying bank accounts by using transaction data is encouraging in cracking down on illegal financial activities. However, few research simultaneously use heterogenous features, which are embedded in the time series data. In this paper, a two route convolution neural network TRHD-CNN model, fed with two types of heterogeneous feature matrices, is proposed for classifying the bank accounts. TRHD-CNN adopts divide and conquer strategy to extract characteristics from two types of data source independently. The strategy is proved able in mining complementary classification characteristics. We firstly transfer the original log data into a directed and dynamic transaction network. On the basis of that, two feature generation methods are devised for extracting information from local topological structure and time series transaction respectively. A DirectedWalk method is developed in this paper to learning the network vector of vertices used for embedding the neighbor relationship of bank account. The extensive experimental results, conducted on a real bank transaction dataset that contains illegal pyramid selling accounts, show the significant advantage of TRHD-CNN over the existing methods. TRHD-CNN can provide recall scores up to 5.15% higher than competing methods. In addition, the two-route architecture of TRHD-CNN is easy to extend to multi-route scenarios and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical inactivity has been identified as a leading risk factor for premature mortality globally, and adolescents, in particular, have low physical activity levels. Schools have been identified as a setting to tackle physical inactivity. Economic evidence of school-based physical activity programmes is limited, and the costs of these programmes are not always collected in full. This paper describes a micro-costing and cost-consequence analysis of the ‘Girls Active’ secondary school-based programme as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT). Micro-costing and cost-consequence analyses were conducted using bespoke cost diaries and questionnaires to collect programme delivery information. Outcomes for the cost-consequence analysis included health-related quality of life measured by the Child Health Utility-9D (CHU-9D), primary care General Practitioner (GP) and school-based (school nurse and school counsellor) service use as part of a cluster RCT of the ‘Girls Active’ programme. Overall, 1,752 secondary pupils were recruited and a complete case sample of 997 participants (Intervention n = 570, Control n = 427) was used for the cost-consequence analysis. The micro-costing analysis demonstrated that, depending upon how the programme was delivered, ‘Girls Active’ costs ranged from £1,054 (£2 per pupil, per school year) to £3,489 (£7 per pupil, per school year). The least costly option was to absorb ‘Girls Active’ strictly within curriculum hours. The analysis demonstrated no effect for the programme for the three main outcomes of interest (health-related quality of life, physical activity and service use).Micro-costing analyses demonstrated the costs of delivering the ‘Girls Active’ programme, addressing a gap in the United Kingdom (UK) literature regarding economic evidence from school-based physical activity programmes. This paper provides recommendations for those gathering cost and service use data in school settings to supplement validated and objective measures, furthering economic research in this field. Trial registration: -ISRCTN, . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of elasticities of substitution between inputs is a standard method for addressing the effect of a change in the mix of inputs used for production from a technical or cost standpoint. Most estimation methods use parametric production or cost functions or frontiers to estimate these elasticities. A potentially useful nonparametric alternative is data envelopment analysis (DEA). The purpose of this paper is to derive elasticities of input substitution for both technical and cost frontiers using DEA, extending the use of this approach in the field of economics and associated fields. The paper provides derivations for both Hicksian (production and cost frontier) and Morishima (cost frontier) elasticities of input substitution, as well as a parsimonious method for estimating them using DEA. The derivations are presented using an agricultural example form Kansas, USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floating catchment methods have recently been applied to identify priority regions for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) deployment, to aid in improving Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) survival. This approach models access as a supply-to-demand ratio for each area, targeting areas with high demand and low supply for AED placement. These methods incorporate spatial covariates on OHCA occurrence, but do not provide precise AED locations, which are critical to the initial intent of such location analysis research. Exact AED locations can be determined using optimisation methods, but they do not incorporate known spatial risk factors for OHCA, such as income and demographics. Combining these two approaches would evaluate AED placement impact, describe drivers of OHCA occurrence, and identify areas that may not be appropriately covered by AED placement strategies. There are two aims in this paper. First, to develop geospatial models of OHCA that account for and display uncertainty. Second, to evaluate the AED placement methods using geospatial models of accessibility. We first identify communities with the greatest gap between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. We then use this information to evaluate models for precise AED location deployment. Methods: Case study data set consisted of 2802 OHCA events and 719 AEDs. Spatial OHCA occurrence was described using a geospatial model, with possible spatial correlation accommodated by introducing a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior on the municipality-level spatial random effect. This model was fit with Integrated Nested Laplacian Approximation (INLA), using covariates for population density, proportion male, proportion over 65 years, financial strength, and the proportion of land used for transport, commercial, buildings, recreation, and urban areas. Optimisation methods for AED locations were applied to find the top 100 AED placement locations. AED access was calculated for current access and 100 AED placements. Priority rankings were then given for each area based on their access score and predicted number of OHCA events. Results: Of the 2802 OHCA events, 64.28% occurred in rural areas, and 35.72% in urban areas. Additionally, over 70% of individuals were aged over 65. Supply of AEDs was less than demand in most areas. Priority regions for AED placement were identified, and access scores were evaluated for AED placement methodology by ranking the access scores and the predicted OHCA count. AED placement methodology placed AEDs in areas with the highest priority, but placed more AEDs in areas with more predicted OHCA events in each grid cell. Conclusion: The methods in this paper incorporate OHCA spatial risk factors and OHCA coverage to identify spatial regions most in need of resources. These methods can be used to help understand how AED allocation methods affect OHCA accessibility, which is of significant practical value for communities when deciding AED placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Little is known about the gender and age differences associated with the effects of economic fluctuations on hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases. This paper investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on hospitalization for ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertension by age and gender between January 1996 and December 2012 in Taiwan. Methods: We adopted a multiple-input time series analysis to examine the strength of the immediate and latent effects of the 17-year quarterly unemployment rates (UR), air pollution exposure (APE), gross domestic product (GDP), per capita consumption expenditure in cigarette and alcohol (ECA), and per capita healthcare expenditure (HE) on the adjusted quarterly incidence rate of hospitalization. The data used in this paper were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database and the website of the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan. Results: Our findings indicate that higher UR increased IHD hospitalization in young men and women and middle-aged women but reduced stroke hospitalization in young men. Higher APE increased IHD hospitalization in young men but reduced it for young women, increased stroke hospitalization in old men and middle-aged women but reduced it for young men, and increased hypertension hospitalization in middle-aged men and young women. Higher ECA reduced IHD hospitalization in middle-aged men, increased stoke hospitalization in middle-aged and old men and middle-aged women. Higher HE reduced IHD hospitalization in old men, young and old women, reduced stroke hospitalization in old women, and reduced hypertension hospitalization in young and middle-aged women. Conclusions: Overall, we found that the economic fluctuations caused increased harmful effects in certain population subgroups but also brought some soothing effects to some groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Executives act based on their experiences, values, personality and personal interpretation of the situations which they face in their companies. Investigations in the field of Behavioral Corporate Finance have determined that there are some relations between CEOs’ personal traits and financial decisions of large companies, but these results are based on indirect personal trait measurements and on public companies. To see whether such relations also exist between CEOs’ personal traits and the financial structure of large private companies, we used psychometric tests to measure their level of optimism, risk attitude and affect heuristic, collected financial data for a period of fourteen years, and considered the economic situation of the country as a key factor in these relations. This paper reports the relationship of executives’ personal traits with the financial structure of large Spanish companies for the period 2001–2014. We observed that executives’ high optimism (and risk aversion attitude) is positively (negatively) related to long-term debt, whilst positive affect is directly associated to the financial leverage and short-term debt. This paper also reports a change of relations when taking into account the country’s economic situation. In effect, by considering this new variable, executives’ risk aversion is seen to be associated to financial leverage and short-term debt, whilst CEOs’ positive affect is linked to long-term debt. These relations are strongly moderated and they become statistically significant in a contracting economic period. In conclusion, the links between CEOs’ personal traits and financial structure of large private Spanish companies make sense when the effect of the economic situation is taken into account. Furthermore, the awareness of these links helps to understand the financial decisions taken within large Spanish companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although interdisciplinarity is often touted as a necessity for modern research, the evidence on the relative impact of sectorial versus to interdisciplinary science is qualitative at best. In this paper we leverage the bibliographic data set of the American Physical Society to quantify the role of interdisciplinarity in physics, and that of talent and luck in achieving success in scientific careers. We analyze a period of 30 years (1980-2009) tagging papers and their authors by means of the Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS), to show that some degree of interdisciplinarity is quite helpful to reach success, measured as a proxy of either the number of articles or the citations score. We also propose an agent-based model of the publication-reputation-citation dynamics which reproduces the trends observed in the APS data set. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of randomness and serendipity in real scientific research; on the other, they shed light on a counterintuitive effect indicating that the most talented authors are not necessarily the most successful ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduces structural diversity as a new approach to quantify the complexity of technologies. By modeling technologies as combinatorial networks, a measure of technological complexity is derived that represents the diversity of (sub-)network topologies in these networks. It is further argued that this measure can be empirically approximated with the Network Diversity Score (NDS). The paper also presents an application of this approach to European patent data from 1980 to 2015. On this basis, the measure of structural diversity is shown to replicate a number of stylized facts commonly associated with technological complexity: Complexity increases over time and younger technologies are more complex than older technologies. Complex technologies are also associated to larger R&D efforts and require more collaborative R&D activities. Lastly, when controlling for technologies’ size, technologies scoring high on structural diversity are also shown to concentrate in space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the levels of health system efficiency and their possible determinants across Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries using national-level data for those countries, as well as for other emerging and developed countries. The data are analyzed using data envelopment analyses and econometric advances that yield reliable estimations of the relationship between system efficiency and its potential determinants. We find that there is substantial room for efficiency improvements in the health system of most LAC countries. For example, LAC countries could improve life expectancy at birth by about five years on average at current public spending levels if they followed best practices. Furthermore, the paper assesses what factors amenable to policy act as the main possible levers for some countries to be able to translate a given level of health financing into better performance on access to care and health outcomes. Our econometric analyses suggest that efforts to increase health system efficiency could be focused in a few key policy areas associated with broader access to health services and better outcomes. These areas include general governance aspects, in addition to improvements in specific dimensions of the quality of health system institutions, notably stronger reliance on results-based management in the production of healthcare goods and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a method to estimate the market parameters modelled by an asymmetric jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Kou’s jump diffusion model while the market parameters refer to the market drift, the market volatility, the jump intensity on market price, and the rate of jump occurrence in a consistent manner throughout the entire paper. The model captures the asymmetric nature of the price fluctuation during up trend markets and down trend markets. The results are compared to conventional options to observe the impact of jump effects. The results from simulation show that the asymmetric jump diffusion model can estimate the fair prices of European call options and annuity better than the Black-Scholes model and the symmetric jump diffusion model proposed by Kou and Merton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between women’s social class and their levels of self- and other-objectification. Two online studies comprising of multiple questionnaires were conducted: Study 1 examined the association between the social class (both objective and subjective) of 198 non-student British women and their self-objectification levels, while Study 2 turned towards the relationship between social class and other-objectification among 82 non-student British women. Our results indicated no apparent relationship between social class and each of the relevant objectification measures. As the first paper on the topic of class and objectification, it appears that there is no relationship observed between the two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports the impact of a major life event–death–on the physical, psychological and social well-being of the deceased’s close friends. We utilised data from a large longitudinal survey covering a period of 14 years (2002–2015) consisting a cohort of 26,515 individuals in Australia, of whom 9,586 had experienced the death of at least one close friend. This longitudinal cohort dataset comprises responses to the SF-36 (health related quality of life measure) and allowed for analysis of the short and longer-term impacts of bereavement. In order to manage the heterogeneity of the socio-demographics of respondents who did/not experience a death event, we use a new and robust approach known as the Entropy Balancing method to construct a set of weights applied to the bereaved group and the control group (the group that did not experience death). This approach enables us to match the two groups so that the distribution of socio-demographic variables between the two groups are balanced. These variables included gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, personality traits, religion, relative socio-economic disadvantage, economic resources, and education and occupation and where they resided. The data show, for the first time, a range of negative and enduring consequences experienced by people following the death of a close friend. Significant adverse physical and psychological well-being, poorer mental health and social functioning occur up to four years following bereavement. Bereaved females experienced a sharper fall in vitality, suffered greater deterioration in mental health, impaired emotional and social functioning than the male counterparts up to four years after the death. The data show that the level of social connectedness plays an important role in bereavement outcomes. Specifically, we found that less socially active respondents experienced a longer deterioration in physical and psychological health. Finally, we found evidence that the death of a close friend lowered the respondent’s satisfaction with their health. Since death of friends is a universal phenomenon, we conclude the paper by reflecting on the need to recognise the death of a close friend as a substantial experience, and to offer support and services to address this disenfranchised grief. Recognising bereaved friends as a group experiencing adverse outcomes can be used internationally to prompt health and psychological services to assist this specific group, noting that there may be substantial longevity to the negative sequelae of the death of a friend. Facilitating bereaved people’s support networks may be a fruitful approach to minimising these negative outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we aim to establish a mathematical model to design a maximizing social welfare intervention mechanism of healthcare service goods in China. The intervention mechanism is helpful to facilitate the adoption of the healthcare service goods. We consider a research problem that regulates the supply chain system for healthcare service goods by an intervention mechanism, and two intervention strategies composed of demand-growth strategy and subsidy strategy are used to the combination of intervention mechanism. Then this paper presents a new method based on fuzzy set and bilevel programming to design the intervention mechanism. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we conduct a case study for Wudang personalized health package and verify our model by the specific result analysis, the result indicates that our joint intervention mechanism is helpful to achieve the target and increase social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Community nursing and midwifery is changing in response to a shift in care from hospital to home, brought about by increasing costs to care because of an aging population and increasing chronicity. Until now, community nursing positions and scope of practice has been dependent on service focus and location, which has led to the role being unclearly defined. Lack of appeal for a career in community practice and a looming workforce shortage necessitates a review into how community nursing and midwifery transition to practice is supported. Methods: This review sought to identify, assess and summarize available evidence relating to transitioning into community nursing and midwifery practice as a speciality. A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach. A narrative synthesis was then undertaken on papers that examined community nursing and midwifery pathway perspectives which define, and enable or inhibit a contemporary pathway. Thematic analysis used a theoretical framework developed for early career and rapid transition to nursing specialty practice. Results: There is a paucity of research that identifies community nursing and midwifery as a discreet scope of practice. Twelve papers were eventually included in the review. Verbatim findings were extracted from the papers and clustered into categories based on the chosen theoretical framework. Major themes were ‘the self’ (professional and personal); ‘transition processes’; and, a ‘sense of belonging’. Sub themes included narrative identifying inhibitors and enablers in each theme. Discussion: No definition of community practice or pathway was identified in nursing, although midwifery was clearly defined. Community nursing practice was described as generalist in nature although specialist knowledge is required. Being part of the community in the professional sense and personal sense was considered important. The importance of transition was identified where pre-entry exposure to community practice was seen as important. Stages in transition to practice were recognised as pre-entry; incomer; insider; and, a sense of belonging. The process of transition should be planned and individualised acknowledging past experience whilst acknowledging the specialist nature of community-based practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a retrospective cohort study to measure the impact of caring for children on female Australian researchers. Our aim was to see whether caring for children was associated with reduced outputs and collaboration. Women were randomly selected for inclusion if they published a first author paper in one of three Australian journals during 2007 to 2015, women who did not publish during this time were not included. One-hundred and sixty women were approached and 95 (59%) completed a survey on their history of caring for children. Two key outcomes were the women's publication and citation counts, which were accessed from Scopus. We also examined the number of authors, affiliations and countries on their published papers, as a reduction in these numbers could indicate an impaired ability to collaborate. We examined the probability of being first or last author as a measure of esteem. There was a small increase in publication counts after the first child that was reversed after the second child. Average citations counts declined after children, particularly after the second child. There was some evidence of a reduced collaboration with overseas collaborators after the first child. The probability of being the last author increased after the second child. Three women were identified as statistically influential and all three had children and were in the top 10% of overall publications and citations. After removing these women the estimated changes in outcomes were noticeably different for most of the outcomes. The repeated presence of statistically influential women shows that it may be impossible to find an "average impact" of caring for children when considering research output. Adjustments may need to be made individually, with women explaining how caring for children has altered their career. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Price inflation has outbalanced the income of residents and buyers in major post-industrial city-regions, and real estate has become an important driver of these inequalities. In a context of a resilient inflation of home values during the last two decades in the greater Paris Region, it is critical to examine housing price dynamics to get a better understanding of socioeconomic segregation. This paper aims at presenting spatial analysis of the dynamics of segregation pertaining to inflation, analyzing price and sellers and buyers data. Using interpolation techniques and multivariate analysis, the paper presents a spatial analysis of property-level data from the Paris Chamber of Notaries (1996-2012) in a GIS (159,000 transactions in suburban areas, single family homes only). Multivariate analysis capture price change and local trajectories of occupational status, i.e. changes in balance between inward and outward flows of sellers and buyers. We adopt a method that fits the fragmented spatial patterns of suburbanization. To do so, we remove the spatial bias by means of a regular 1-km spatial grid, interpolating the variables within it, using a time-distance matrix. The main results are threefold. We document the spatial patterns of professionalization (a rise of executives, intermediate occupation and employees) to describe the main trends of inward mobility in property ownership in suburbs, offsetting the outward mobility of retired persons. Second, neighborhood trajectories are related the diverging patterns of appreciation, between local contexts of accumulation with a growth of residential prices, and suburbs with declining trends. The maturity of suburbanization yields a diversified structure of segregation between the social groups, that do not simply oppose executives vs. blue collar suburbs. A follow-up research agenda is finally outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of the deadline-constrained task scheduling in the cloud computing system, this paper proposes a deadline-constrained scheduling algorithm for cloud computing based on the driver of dynamic essential path (Deadline-DDEP). According to the changes of the dynamic essential path of each task node in the scheduling process, the dynamic sub-deadline strategy is proposed. The strategy assigns different sub-deadline values to every task node to meet the constraint relations among task nodes and the user’s defined deadline. The strategy fully considers the dynamic sub-deadline affected by the dynamic essential path of task node in the scheduling process. The paper proposed the quality assessment of optimization cost strategy to solve the problem of selecting server for each task node. Based on the sub-deadline urgency and the relative execution cost in the scheduling process, the strategy selects the server that not only meets the sub-deadline but also obtains much lower execution cost. In this way, the proposed algorithm will make the task graph complete within its deadline, and minimize its total execution cost. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed algorithm via the simulation experiments using Matlab tools. The experimental results show that, the proposed algorithm produces remarkable performance improvement rate on the total execution cost that ranges between 10.3% and 30.8% under meeting the deadline constraint. In view of the experimental results, the proposed algorithm provides better-quality scheduling solution that is suitable for scientific application task execution in the cloud computing environment than IC-PCP, DCCP and CD-PCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scabies is a common dermatological condition, affecting more than 130 million people at any time. To evaluate and/or predict the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions, disease transmission modelling can be used. Objective: To review published scabies models and data to inform the design of a comprehensive scabies transmission modelling framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions. Methods: Systematic literature search in PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library identified scabies studies published since the year 2000. Selected papers included modelling studies and studies on the life cycle of scabies mites, patient quality of life and resource use. Reference lists of reviews were used to identify any papers missed through the search strategy. Strengths and limitations of identified scabies models were evaluated and used to design a modelling framework. Potential model inputs were identified and discussed. Findings: Four scabies models were published: a Markov decision tree, two compartmental models, and an agent-based, network-dependent Monte Carlo model. None of the models specifically addressed crusted scabies, which is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and increased transmission. There is a lack of reliable, comprehensive information about scabies biology and the impact this disease has on patients and society. Discussion: Clinicians and health economists working in the field of scabies are encouraged to use the current review to inform disease transmission modelling and economic evaluations on interventions against scabies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In economic analyses of HIV interventions, South Africa is often used as a case in point, due to the availability of good epidemiological and programme data and the global relevance of its epidemic. Few analyses however use locally relevant cost data. We reviewed available cost data as part of the South African HIV Investment Case, a modelling exercise to inform the optimal use of financial resources for the country’s HIV programme. Methods: We systematically reviewed publication databases for published cost data covering a large range of HIV interventions and summarised relevant unit costs (cost per person receiving a service) for each. Where no data was found in the literature, we constructed unit costs either based on available information regarding ingredients and relevant public-sector prices, or based on expenditure records. Results: Only 42 (5%) of 1,047 records included in our full-text review reported primary cost data on HIV interventions in South Africa, with 71% of included papers covering ART. Other papers detailed the costs of HCT, MMC, palliative and inpatient care; no papers were found on the costs of PrEP, social and behaviour change communication, and PMTCT. The results informed unit costs for 5 of 11 intervention categories included in the Investment Case, with the remainder costed based on ingredients (35%) and expenditure data (10%). Conclusions: A large number of modelled economic analyses of HIV interventions in South Africa use as inputs the same, often outdated, cost analyses, without reference to additional literature review. More primary cost analyses of non-ART interventions are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Test oracles are commonly used in software testing to determine the correctness of the execution results of test cases. However, the testing of many software systems faces the test oracle problem: a test oracle may not always be available, or it may be available but too expensive to apply. One such software system is a system involving abundant business processes. This paper focuses on the testing of business-process-based software systems and proposes a metamorphic testing approach for event sequences, called MTES, to alleviate the oracle problem. We utilized event sequences to represent business processes and then applied the technique of metamorphic testing to test the system without using test oracles. To apply metamorphic testing, we studied the general rules for identifying metamorphic relations for business processes and further demonstrated specific metamorphic relations for individual case studies. Three case studies were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. The experimental results show that our approach is feasible and effective in testing the applications with rich business processes. In addition, this paper summarizes the experimental findings and proposes guidelines for selecting good metamorphic relations for business processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quality circles or peer review groups, and similar structured small groups of 6–12 health care professionals meet regularly across Europe to reflect on and improve their standard practice. There is debate over their effectiveness in primary health care, especially over their potential to change practitioners’ behaviour. Despite their popularity, we could not identify broad surveys of the literature on quality circles in a primary care context. Our scoping review was intended to identify possible definitions of quality circles, their origins, and reported effectiveness in primary health care, and to identify gaps in our knowledge. We searched appropriate databases and included any relevant paper on quality circles published until December 2017. We then compared information we found in the articles to that we found in books and on websites. Our search returned 7824 citations, from which we identified 82 background papers and 58 papers about quality circles. We found that they originated in manufacturing industry and that many countries adopted them for primary health care to continuously improve medical education, professional development, and quality of care. Quality circles are not standardized and their techniques are complex. We identified 19 papers that described individual studies, one paper that summarized 3 studies, and 1 systematic review that suggested that quality circles can effectively change behaviour, though effect sizes varied, depending on topic and context. Studies also suggested participation may affirm self-esteem and increase professional confidence. Because reports of the effect of quality circles on behaviour are variable, we recommend theory-driven research approaches to analyse and improve the effectiveness of this complex intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explicit model predictive control (eMPC) has been proposed to reduce the huge computational complexity of MPC while maintaining the performance of MPC. Therefore, this control method has been more widely employed in the automotive industry than MPC. In this paper, an eMPC is designed to perform a double-lane-change (DLC) maneuver. This task has been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of controllers in an autonomous driving situation. In this sense, the proposed controller shows better performance than a driver model designed in CarSim at a high vehicle longitudinal velocity. The main contribution of this paper is to present an eMPC for discrete-time linear time-variant (LTV) systems so that the proposed controller can be robust against parameter variation. In a state-space representation of the vehicle, the longitudinal velocity of the vehicle is assumed to be a constant so that the whole system is linear time-invariant (LTI). However, it is inevitable that this velocity varies in an actual driving situation. Therefore, an eMPC controller is designed using an add-on unit to consider the varying parameter without modification of the eMPC solution. The CarSim simulation results of eMPC show enhanced performance compared to that of eMPC for the LTI system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change and extreme temperatures pose increasing challenges to individuals and their health with older adults being one of the most vulnerable groups. The aim of this paper is to better understand the roles that tangible assets (e.g., physical or financial) and intangible assets (e.g., human or social) play in the way older adults adapt to extreme temperatures, the types of adaptive responses they implement, limits and constraints, as well opportunities for better adaptation. Rather than focusing exclusively on extremes of heat, or considering each type of asset in isolation, the important and novel contribution of this paper is to take an integrated and multi-seasonal qualitative and quantitative approach, that conjointly investigates all categories of assets in relation to the adaptations that independently-living older adults make to both extreme heat and extreme cold. Methods and findings: The paper examines the contribution of assets to adaptation to extreme temperatures among older adults living independently in their homes. An innovative mixed methods study with an inter-seasonal approach was implemented in Lisbon, Portugal with interviews and surveys during summer for extreme heat and winter for extreme cold. The ability of participants to adapt to extreme temperatures was found to be dependent on asset context and diversity, and the dynamics through which extreme temperatures enhanced or reduced the stock of assets available. As a result, participants engaged in activities of assets replacement, exchange or substitutions. Despite this, many participants recognised many constraints and limits to their ability to adapt and protect their health and well-being ranging from reduced income, high energy costs and lack of social networks. Opportunities for improving older adults’ adaptation were found to exist and strategies, action and investment have been identified by older adults which included life-long education, incentives to improve insulation and local activities. Conclusions: The paper suggests that the implementation of the proposed asset-based approach linking assets and adaptation to extreme temperatures, illustrates the key pathway that individuals, their families and carers, governments, policymakers, researchers and practitioners can follow to ensure effective adaptation and promote health and well-being. Supporting older adults’ adaptation to extreme temperatures is possible and can be complemented with efforts to reduce older adults’ vulnerability and building resilience to extreme temperatures. These findings pose concrete implications for policy and practice, including for example the need for implementation of measures and actions to reduce poverty, reduce energy costs, improve the quality of the housing stock and improve older adults’ social networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the benefits of global financial reporting models for developing countries, discussing the case of Romania, which, at the recommendations of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, exceeded the minimum requirements of the European Union, by imposing the full adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in individual financial statements of listed companies. Using regression analysis and decomposition techniques, the paper explores the evolution in value relevance of financial variables based on pre-(2009–2012) and post-(2014–2016) adoption samples, showing that after IFRS adoption financial information becomes significantly more relevant for equity valuations. We also provide empirical evidence showing that the degree of relevance for stock valuation, as well as the IFRS impact varies across types of firms. Overall, our findings tend to indicate the success of the financial reporting reform, which could be relevant for other jurisdictions facing similar decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, computational Grids have proven to be a good solution for processing large-scale, computation intensive problems. However, the heterogeneity, dynamics of resources and diversity of applications requirements have always been important factors affecting their performance. In response to these challenges, this work first builds a Grid job scheduling architecture that can dynamically monitor Grid computing center resources and make corresponding scheduling decisions. Second, a Grid job model is proposed to describe the application requirements. Third, this paper studies the characteristics of commercial interconnection networks used in Grids and forecast job transmission time. Fourth, this paper proposes an application-aware job scheduling mechanism (AJSM) that includes periodic scheduling flow and a heuristic application-aware deadline constraint job scheduling algorithm. The rigorous performance evaluation results clearly demonstrate that the proposed application-aware job scheduling mechanism can successful schedule more Grid jobs than the existing algorithms. For successful scheduled jobs, our proposed AJSM method is the best algorithm for job average processing time and makespan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines health-growth relationship using an unbalanced panel of 17 advanced economies for the period 1870–2013 and employs panel generalised method of moments estimator that takes care of endogeneity issues, which arise due to reverse causality. We utilise macroeconomic data corresponding to inflation, government expenditure, trade and schooling in sample countries that takes care of omitted variable bias in growth regression. With alternate model specifications, we show that population health proxied by life expectancy exert a positive and significant effect on both real income per capita as well as growth. Our results are in conformity with the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between health and economic growth, they, however, are more robust due to the presence of long-term data, appropriate econometric procedure and alternate model specifications. We also show a strong role of endogeneity in driving standard results in growth empirics. In addition to life expectancy, other constituent of human capital, education proxied by schooling is also positively associated with real per capita income. Policy implication that follows from this paper is that per capita income can be boosted through focussed policy attention on population health. The results, however, posit differing policy implications for advanced and developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation and method: Existing rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in “specific contexts”. This paper offers a theoretical explanation by including unsophisticated voters into an opportunistic political cycle model; unsophisticated voters are unable to take the optimal behaviour of other agents (fully) into account, but may, nonetheless, vaguely suspect government deception. Results: First, rationally expected manipulations are, on average, fruitless in equilibrium. By including unsophisticated voters we can, however, corroborate empirically found electoral effects of political budget manipulations. Second, unsophisticated voters become anxious and suspicious in an intransparent or uncertain world, but the government tries to “outperform” their scepticism by increasing budget manipulations in order to appear more competent and, ultimately, increase re-election chances. It is, therefore, not surprising that political budget cycles are observed in countries suffering from intransparencies such as developing countries or new democracies. Third and in addition, the model presented here predicts that political opportunism produces, unintentionally, a countercyclical policy effect in election years, thereby, for instance, alleviating the typical problem of policy procyclicality in developing countries. Additional contribution: The paper also offers a theoretical explanation for political distortions found in forecasts by US states. Based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts the incumbent state government can conduct expansionary fiscal policies in order to appear more competent prior to an upcoming election. Since the resulting deficit can only be observed afterwards, the government can effectively circumvent a constitutional balanced budget constraint. As a result, there are political forecast and budget cycles in the state. More generally, however, these findings may also apply to European countries where balanced budget constraints are or will be in place (for instance the debt brakes in Switzerland and Germany); similarly, they apply to the supra-national European Fiscal Compact of the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Vector Borne Diseases (VBDs) have a major impact on public health and socio-economic development. Inter-sectoral collaboration was recommended as one of the key elements of Integrated Vector Management (IVM), however limited evidence measures the effect and contribution of intersectoral approaches including but not only IVM. This systematic review aims to assess the existing evidence on all forms of inter-sectoral collaboration in VBD control and prevention, identify any gaps and develop a framework from a global perspective. Methods: Articles were identified through a search of PUBMED, Science of Direct, Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar and WHO archives using key words and excluded duplications (n = 2,034). The exclusion of non-VBDs control and prevention interventions resulted in 194 eligible titles/abstract/keywords for full text assessment. Further exclusion of non-peer reviewed articles, non-declaration of ethical clearance, reviews and expert opinion articles resulted in 50 articles finally being included for analysis with the extraction of data on outcome, factor/s influencing the effectiveness, indicators of collaboration and sustainability. Results: Of the 50 articles included in the analysis, 19 articles were categorized as of moderate-strong quality. All articles compared pre- and post-intervention outcomes against disease or vector variables. Three papers included outcome variables on intersectoral collaboration and participation indicator. However, no paper undertook component analysis by different sectors or different activities. Only one paper compared cost data for community-intersectoral intervention for IRS and traditional “vertical” IRS. Six factors were identified as influencing the effectiveness of inter-sectoral collaboration. Five of six factors are the main ones, namely the approach (37/47), resources (34/47), relationships (33/47), management (29/47) and shared vision (20/47) factors. A conceptual framework has been developed based on this review. Conclusion: This review shows the importance of inter-sectoral collaboration to reduce VBDs or vector densities. However, very few studies measured how much inter-sectoral collaboration contributes to the impact. Further high-quality studies using inter-sectoral collaboration indicators are recommended to be undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ratings are present in many areas of assessment including peer review of research proposals and journal articles, teacher observations, university admissions and selection of new hires. One feature present in any rating process with multiple raters is that different raters often assign different scores to the same assessee, with the potential for bias and inconsistencies related to rater or assessee covariates. This paper analyzes disparities in ratings of internal and external applicants to teaching positions using applicant data from Spokane Public Schools. We first test for biases in rating while accounting for measures of teacher applicant qualifications and quality. Then, we develop model-based inter-rater reliability (IRR) estimates that allow us to account for various sources of measurement error, the hierarchical structure of the data, and to test whether covariates, such as applicant status, moderate IRR. We find that applicants external to the district receive lower ratings for job applications compared to internal applicants. This gap in ratings remains significant even after including measures of qualifications and quality such as experience, state licensure scores, or estimated teacher value added. With model-based IRR, we further show that consistency between raters is significantly lower when rating external applicants. We conclude the paper by discussing policy implications and possible applications of our model-based IRR estimate for hiring and selection practices in and out of the teacher labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It was recently reported that men self-cite >50% more often than women across a wide variety of disciplines in the bibliographic database JSTOR. Here, we replicate this finding in a sample of 1.6 million papers from Author-ity, a version of PubMed with computationally disambiguated author names. More importantly, we show that the gender effect largely disappears when accounting for prior publication count in a multidimensional statistical model. Gender has the weakest effect on the probability of self-citation among an extensive set of features tested, including byline position, affiliation, ethnicity, collaboration size, time lag, subject-matter novelty, reference/citation counts, publication type, language, and venue. We find that self-citation is the hallmark of productive authors, of any gender, who cite their novel journal publications early and in similar venues, and more often cross citation-barriers such as language and indexing. As a result, papers by authors with short, disrupted, or diverse careers miss out on the initial boost in visibility gained from self-citations. Our data further suggest that this disproportionately affects women because of attrition and not because of disciplinary under-specialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing and predicting the trend of price fluctuation has been receiving more and more attention, as price risk has become the focus of risk control research in heating oil futures market. A novel time series prediction model combined with the complex network method is put forward in the paper. First of all, this paper counts the cumulative time interval of different nodes in the network, and fits its growth trend with the Fourier model. Then a novel price fluctuation prediction model is established based on the effective information such as some topology properties extracted from the network. The results show that the Fourier model can predict the emergence time of new nodes in the next stage, and the established price fluctuation prediction model can infer the names of nodes in the prediction interval, so as to determine the forward-looking behavior of price evolution. Besides, liken to the NAR neural network, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method also show superiority, which has important theoretical value and academic significance for early warning and prediction of price behavior in the heating oil futures market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the extent to which patent renewal data is associated with government funding in a university context by focusing on the relationship between the funded patentees and renewal decisions of their patents. The aim of this paper is to show whether receiving funding from government contributes to high-value patents as measured by the patent renewal decisions made by their owners. Our observations of academic nanotechnology patents in Canada discovered a positive relationship between funded researchers and the rate of patent renewal after 4 years. Further analysis is also undertaken into the relative impact on patent renewal after 8 years and 12 years. Our results suggest that the length of patent renewal in numbers of years can be related to levels of government funding received by their inventors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic growth since the 21st century, cities in China have experienced considerable economic and social reconstruction. Driven by rapid industrialization, urban spatial structures are undergoing evolution and change. Therefore, this paper analyzes the processes and mechanisms associated with the evolution of the commercial spatial structure in Guangzhou after the financial crisis in 2008 based on both theoretical and empirical analyses. We use a Dirichlet multinomial regression (DMR) model to extract latent semantic information and determine urban functional areas from global positioning system (GPS) and point-of-interest (POI) data collected in Guangzhou in 2009 and 2013. In addition, we use movement patterns and POI data to identify the evolution of Guangzhou's commercial zones from 2009 to 2013. The results show that the urban commercial structure in Guangzhou gradually changed from a single-center model to a multi-center model with dispersed clusters and that the distribution of the entire spatial structure changed. Meanwhile, Guangzhou’s commercial structure not only varied over time but also exhibited specific geographical features. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method can clearly identify the boundary of the commercial area in Guangzhou and provides a valid spatial-temporal model of change in the city. Moreover, this study not only expounds the future development trends of the urban spatial structure in Guangzhou from a microcosmic perspective but also provides a scientific basis for clarifying the spatial locations and development advantages of urban functions within the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over the past two decades, the focus of mental health care has shifted from institutionalisation to community-based programs and short hospital stays. This change means that there is an increased role for caregivers, mostly family members, in managing persons with mental illness. Although there is evidence to support the benefits of deinstitutionalisation of mental health care, there are also indications of substantial burden experienced by caregivers; the evidence of which is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. However, knowledge of the nature and extent of this burden can inform the planning of mental health services that will not only benefit patients, but also caregivers and households. Objective: To systematically review the available evidence on the economic burden of severe mental illness on primary family caregivers in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted in Pubmed, CINAHL, Econlit and Web of Science with no date limitations up to September 2016 using keywords such as "burden", "cost of illness" and "economic burden" to identify relevant published literature. Articles were appraised using a standardised data extraction tool covering themes such as physical, psychological and socioeconomic burden. Results: Seven papers were included in the review. Caregivers were mostly family members with a mean age of 46.34, female and unemployed. Five out of seven studies (71%) estimated the full economic burden of severe mental illness on caregivers. The remainder of studies just described the caregiver burden. All seven papers reported moderate to severe caregiver burden characterised by financial constraint, productivity loss and lost employment. The caregiver’s level of income and employment status, severity of patient's condition and duration of mental illness were reported to negatively affect the economic burden experienced by caregivers. Conclusion: There is paucity of studies reporting the burden of severe mental illness on caregivers in sub-Saharan Africa. Further research is needed to present the nature and extent of this burden to inform service planning and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that increasing agricultural production to the levels needed to feed an expanding world population requires sharply increased public investment in research and development and widespread adoption of new technologies, but funding for national and international agricultural research has rather declined in recent years. In this situation, priority setting has become increasingly important for allocating scarce research resources among competing needs to achieve greater impacts. Using partial equilibrium economic surplus models and poverty impact simulations, this paper assesses cassava research priorities in Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, and Asia based on the potential economic and poverty reduction impacts of alternative research and technology options. The results showed that efficient planting material production and distribution systems and sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices have the greatest expected economic and poverty reduction impacts in the three regions. Lack of clean planting materials is a major constraint to adoption and it is envisaged that efficient production and distribution systems for planting material can accelerate technology adoption by farmers. Similarly, sustainable crop and soil fertility management practices play a key role in closing the observed yield gaps, especially in Africa. The paper discusses the results of the priority assessment for key cassava research options and concludes with the implications for cassava research priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recreational fishing is often perceived as harmless when it comes to fisheries management, and its impact often estimated to surpass the economic outcomes of e.g. large-scale fisheries. Recreational fisheries are often an indication of political stability and sound ecosystem management. However, despite a high economic impact, the economic costs on traditional and small-scale commercial fishers is yet to be known. This paper answers the question of how unregulated recreational fisheries could rather generate a loss to an economy, and cause unfair competition with existing commercial sectors using the example of Algeria. This paper assesses catches and economic value of recreational fisheries in Algeria, and finds that over 6,000 tonnes reach commercial markets annually, competing directly with the small-scale artisanal sector, while selling recreationally caught fish is still illegal. The paper further finds that the public is thereby deprived—through lost tax, licence income and landed value of $45 million US annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how to maximize contribution in public good dilemmas by arranging people into homogeneous or heterogeneous subgroups. Past studies on the effect of homogeneity of efficacy have exclusively manipulated group composition in their experimental designs, which might have imposed a limit on ecological validity because group membership may not be easily changed in reality. In this study, we maintained the same group composition but varied the subgroup composition. We developed a public good dilemmas paradigm in which participants were assigned to one of the four conditions (high- vs. low-efficacy; homogeneous vs. heterogeneous subgroup) to produce their endowments and then to decide how much to contribute. We found that individuals in homogeneous and heterogeneous subgroups produced a similar amount and proportion of contribution, which was due to the two mediating effects that counteracted each other, namely (a) perceived efficacy relative to subgroup and (b) expectation of contribution of other subgroup members. This paper demonstrates both the pros and cons of arranging people into homogeneous and heterogeneous subgroups of efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on evaluating the systemic risk in interbank networks, proposing a series of measurements: risk distance, risk degree and m-order risk degree. The proposed measurements are formally proven to have good basic and extended properties that are able to reflect the effect of bank size, liability size, liability distribution, and the discount factor on the default risk, not only of a single bank, but also of the entire system. Additionally, the abovementioned properties and the relationship between risk distance and financial contagion indicate the rationality embodied in the proposed measurements. This paper also provides some implications on how to decrease or prevent the systemic risk in an interbank system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness, to calculate the Fitness of subnational entities and we apply it to the states of Brazil. In the last decade, several indices were introduced to measure the competitiveness of countries by looking at the complexity of their export basket. Tacchella et al (2012) developed a non-monetary metric called Fitness. In this paper, after an overview about Brazil as a whole and the comparison with the other BRIC countries, we introduce a new methodology based on the Fitness algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness. Combining the results with the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPp), we look at the dynamics of the Brazilian states in the Fitness-Income plane. Two regimes are distinguishable: one with high predictability and the other with low predictability, showing a deep analogy with the heterogeneous dynamics of the World countries. Furthermore, we compare the ranking of the Brazilian states according to the Exogenous Fitness with the ranking obtained through two other techniques, namely Endogenous Fitness and Economic Complexity Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]