Search

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement a range of containment measures, including mass gathering restrictions, social distancing, and school closures. Despite these efforts, vaccines continue to be the safest and most effective means of combating such viruses. Yet, vaccine hesitancy persists, posing a significant public health concern, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. To effectively address this issue, timely data is crucial for understanding the various factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy. While previous research has largely relied on traditional surveys for this information, recent sources of data, such as social media, have gained attention. However, the potential of social media data as a reliable proxy for information on population hesitancy, especially when compared with survey data, remains underexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap. Our approach uses social, demographic, and economic data to predict vaccine hesitancy levels in the ten most populous US metropolitan areas. We employ machine learning algorithms to compare a set of baseline models that contain only these variables with models that incorporate survey data and social media data separately. Our results show that XGBoost algorithm consistently outperforms Random Forest and Linear Regression, with marginal differences between Random Forest and XGBoost. This was especially the case with models that incorporate survey or social media data, thus highlighting the promise of the latter data as a complementary information source. Results also reveal variations in influential variables across the five hesitancy classes, such as age, ethnicity, occupation, and political inclination. Further, the application of models to different MSAs yields mixed results, emphasizing the uniqueness of communities and the need for complementary data approaches. In summary, this study underscores social media data's potential for understanding vaccine hesitancy, emphasizes the importance of tailoring interventions to specific communities, and suggests the value of combining different data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lyme disease is one of the most commonly reported infectious diseases in the United States (US), accounting for more than 90 % of all vector-borne diseases in North America. Objective: In this paper, self-reported tweets on Twitter were analyzed in order to predict potential Lyme disease cases and accurately assess incidence rates in the US. Methods: The study was done in three stages: (1) Approximately 1.3 million tweets were collected and pre-processed to extract the most relevant Lyme disease tweets with geolocations. A subset of tweets were semi-automatically labelled as relevant or irrelevant to Lyme disease using a set of precise keywords, and the remaining portion were manually labelled, yielding a curated labelled dataset of 77, 500 tweets. (2) This labelled data set was used to train, validate, and test various combinations of NLP word embedding methods and prominent ML classification models, such as TF-IDF and logistic regression, Word2vec and XGboost, and BERTweet, among others, to identify potential Lyme disease tweets. (3) Lastly, the presence of spatio-temporal patterns in the US over a 10-year period were studied. Results: Preliminary results showed that BERTweet outperformed all tested NLP classifiers for identifying Lyme disease tweets, achieving the highest classification accuracy and F1-score of 90 % . There was also a consistent pattern indicating that the West and Northeast regions of the US had a higher tweet rate over time. Conclusions: We focused on the less-studied problem of using Twitter data as a surveillance tool for Lyme disease in the US. Several crucial findings have emerged from the study. First, there is a fairly strong correlation between classified tweet counts and Lyme disease counts, with both following similar trends. Second, in 2015 and early 2016, the social media network like Twitter was essential in raising popular awareness of Lyme disease. Third, counties with a high incidence rate were not necessarily related with a high tweet rate, and vice versa. Fourth, BERTweet can be used as a reliable NLP classifier for detecting relevant Lyme disease tweets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States has had more mass shooting incidents than any other country. It is reported that more than 1800 incidents occurred in the US during the past three years. Mass shooters often display warning signs before committing crimes, such as childhood traumas, domestic violence, firearms access, and aggressive social media posts. With the advancement of machine learning (ML), it is more possible than ever to predict mass shootings before they occur by studying the behavior of prospective mass shooters. This paper presents an ML-based system that uses various unsupervised ML models to warn about a balanced progressive tendency of a person to commit a mass shooting. Our system used two models, namely local outlier factor and K-means clustering, to learn both the psychological factors and social media activities of previous shooters to provide a probabilistic similarity of a new observation to an existing shooter. The developed system can show the similarity between a new record for a prospective shooter and one or more records from our dataset via a GUI-friendly interface. It enables users to select some social and criminal observations about the prospective shooter. Then, the webpage creates a new record, classifies it, and displays the similarity results. Furthermore, we developed a feed-in module, which allows new observations to be added to our dataset and retrains the ML models. Finally, we evaluated our system using various performance metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prescription medication (PM) misuse/abuse has emerged as a national crisis in the United States, and social media has been suggested as a potential resource for performing active monitoring. However, automating a social media-based monitoring system is challenging-requiring advanced natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning methods. In this paper, we describe the development and evaluation of automatic text classification models for detecting self-reports of PM abuse from Twitter.Methods: We experimented with state-of-the-art bi-directional transformer-based language models, which utilize tweet-level representations that enable transfer learning (e.g., BERT, RoBERTa, XLNet, AlBERT, and DistilBERT), proposed fusion-based approaches, and compared the developed models with several traditional machine learning, including deep learning, approaches. Using a public dataset, we evaluated the performances of the classifiers on their abilities to classify the non-majority "abuse/misuse" class.Results: Our proposed fusion-based model performs significantly better than the best traditional model (F1-score [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.64-0.69] vs. 0.45 [0.42-0.48]). We illustrate, via experimentation using varying training set sizes, that the transformer-based models are more stable and require less annotated data compared to the other models. The significant improvements achieved by our best-performing classification model over past approaches makes it suitable for automated continuous monitoring of nonmedical PM use from Twitter.Conclusions: BERT, BERT-like and fusion-based models outperform traditional machine learning and deep learning models, achieving substantial improvements over many years of past research on the topic of prescription medication misuse/abuse classification from social media, which had been shown to be a complex task due to the unique ways in which information about nonmedical use is presented. Several challenges associated with the lack of context and the nature of social media language need to be overcome to further improve BERT and BERT-like models. These experimental driven challenges are represented as potential future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depression has robust natural language correlates and can increasingly be measured in language using predictive models. However, despite evidence that language use varies as a function of individual demographic features (e.g., age, gender), previous work has not systematically examined whether and how depression's association with language varies by race. We examine how race moderates the relationship between language features (i.e., first-person pronouns and negative emotions) from social media posts and self-reported depression, in a matched sample of Black and White English speakers in the United States. Our findings reveal moderating effects of race: While depression severity predicts I-usage in White individuals, it does not in Black individuals. White individuals use more belongingness and self-deprecation-related negative emotions. Machine learning models trained on similar amounts of data to predict depression severity performed poorly when tested on Black individuals, even when they were trained exclusively using the language of Black individuals. In contrast, analogous models tested on White individuals performed relatively well. Our study reveals surprising race-based differences in the expression of depression in natural language and highlights the need to understand these effects better, especially before language-based models for detecting psychological phenomena are integrated into clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to propose a methodology utilizing machine learning techniques to support medical organizations in effectively managing risks. Specifically, the study aims to connect social media data to identify and assess potential threats, ultimately enabling healthcare management to make informed decisions for their organizations and clients. The research employs machine learning algorithms to analyze user-generated content on social media platforms, generating comprehensive visual representations of various risk categories and their magnitudes. Additionally, the study utilizes data simplification techniques, including categorization, to streamline data processing and enhance overall efficiency. A computational framework is also developed, incorporating closed-form connections for threat assessment and evaluation. The study further empirically analyses the Consumer Value Stores (CVS) established for medical care in the United States. The findings reveal that prevalent threats within the lower quartile of client messages about CVS services include operational, financial, and technological risks. The severity of these risks is distributed among high risk (21.8%), moderate risk (78%), and minimal risk (0.2%). The research also presents several metrics to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework, confirming its effectiveness in effectively identifying and addressing potential threats. This research provides insights that can help healthcare management make informed decisions and foster a safer and more secure environment for their organizations and the people they serve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena--special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles--mumps--rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior--disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]