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Purpose – The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in agricultural interregional trade pattern. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate change impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade pattern. Design/methodology/approach – The paper will use the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. The CGE model consists of seven Chinese regions and the rest of the world and six commodities. Findings – The results indicate that northwest, south, central, and northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from east, north, and southwest PRC will decrease. Agricultural products handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows. Originality/value – Studies on the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agriculture have been increasing. To the best of our knowledge, however, no previous studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input‐output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional‐level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector‐level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary: Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences. Key Points: The economic cascading effect of climate change is approximately 18 times larger than its direct damageThe least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more economic impacts than the most developed regionThe decline in agricultural output also affects manufacturing and services through trade networks, especially in developed regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A primary goal of studying climate change adaptation is to identify the adaptation options that are used to improve crop productivity or reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Many of the adjustments in farm management that farmers adopt do not necessarily represent true adaptations to climate change, an issue often ignored in existing literature and resulting in a risk that policy makers are misled to think that adaptation is easier than it actually is, and thereby underestimate the challenge that climate change presents. The overall goal of this study is to identify whether farmers’ adoptions are enhancing food production and adapting to climate change. The identification uses a plot-level panel from a survey of 619 rural households in three provinces in China and county-level weather data. With the use of plot and county-by-year fixed effects as well as instrumental variable approaches, our estimates show that the autonomous adoptions are not effective in improving crop yields. This implies that farmers’ adoptions cannot be always considered adaptations to climate change. The paper provides a possible explanation for the results and concludes with policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of future climate change and the corresponding adaptation activities on grain production and its regional distribution in China. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applied the Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis model, in combination with the findings from agronomic literature with highly detailed agricultural census data, to conduct equilibrium analysis under alternative impact (seasonal drought and climate warming) scenarios and adaptation scenarios (promoting water-saving irrigation, introducing new varieties, and the integrated) associated with climate change. Findings - Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting yield reduction will incur substantial losses to China's grain production (by ~8 percent at a national scale). The application of water saving techniques can be an effective solution to seasonal drought. Introducing new varieties will increase the combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production. Research limitations/implications - Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting sown area reduction will incur substantial losses to China's grain production by approximately 8 percent, despite farmers' adaptation activities of switching from water use-intensive crops to drought-tolerant crops to mitigate this negative effect. The application of water saving techniques is an effective solution to seasonal drought; it can lead to a nationwide increase in the sown area by 3.48 percent and in the grain production by 4.15 percent. Introducing new varieties will increase grain outputs and change the spatial distribution of crop production across the country. The combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase the national grain production by 19.6 percent, and thus constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production. Originality/value - Results from this study provide practical implications formulate strategies in response to climate change. Central government should reinforce the policies such as new varieties promotion and improve the subsidy method to guide the introduction of new varieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water footprint of production can be used to identify pressure on national or regional water resources generated by production activities. Water stress is defined as the ratio of water use (the difference between a regional water footprint of production and a green water footprint) to renewable water resources available in a country or region. Water stress can be used to identify pressure on national or regional water resources generated by production activities. This paper estimates the water footprint of production and the water stress in China during the years 1985-2009. The result shows that China's water footprint of production increased from 781.58 × 109 m3 in 1985 to 1109.76 × 109 m3 in 2009. Mega-cities and regions with less agriculture production due to local climatic conditions (Tibet and Qinghai) had lower water footprint of production, while the provinces (Henan, Shandong) with higher agriculture production had higher footprint. Provinces with severe water stress increased from 6 in 1985 to 9 in 2009. High to severe water stress exists mainly in mega-cities and agricultural areas located in the downstream areas of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River in North and Central China. The outlook for water resources pressure in China is not optimistic, with areas of stress expanding from northern to southern of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide emission and greenhouse gas emissions are considered core issue in the world that influence agricultural production and also cause climate change. The present study seeks to investigate the linkage of methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, carbon dioxide emission, and greenhouse gas emissions with agricultural gross domestic product in China. The long-term association was checked by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, fully modified least squares method, and canonical cointegrating regression analysis. The results from long-run analysis exposed that carbon dioxide emission and greenhouse gas emissions have positive coefficients that demonstrate the long-run linkage with the agricultural gross domestic product having p values of 0.5709 and 0.3751, respectively. Similarly, results also revealed that agricultural methane emissions and agricultural nitrous oxide emissions have a negative association with the agricultural gross domestic product having p values of 0.1737 and 0.0559. China is a huge emitter of CO2 emission and greenhouse gas emissions. Possible conservative policies are required to form the Chinese government to tackle this challenge to decrease CO2 emission in order to increase agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A preliminary conceptual framework is proposed for the estimation of the costs of desertification. This framework consists of assessment of the extent and severity of desertification, identification of various impacts and valuation of the direct and indirect costs of desertification. Based on this framework, three well‐cited studies of the costs of desertification in China were critically reviewed. Limitations in these studies include double counting, confusion of short‐term and long‐term costs and the lack of necessary adjustment of price parameters. Refinement of the estimates indicates that these limitations have caused serious overestimation or underestimation of the costs of desertification. To achieve more reliable and useful estimates, future studies need to overcome the limitations mentioned in the preceding texts and use the latest available data on desertification and its various impacts. A more comprehensive conceptual framework that includes the valuation of dryland ecosystem services could also be developed to guide future studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]