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Grammatical knowledge has often been investigated in wug tests, in which participants inflect pseudo-words. It was argued that in inflecting these pseudo-words, speakers apply their knowledge of word formation. However, it remains unclear what exactly this knowledge is and how it is learned. According to one theory, the knowledge is best characterised as abstractions that specify how units are combined. Another theory maintains that it is best characterised by memory-based analogy. In both cases the knowledge is learned by association based on positive evidence alone. In this paper, we model the classification of pseudo-words to Maltese plurals using a shallow neural network trained with an error-driven learning algorithm. We demonstrate that the classifications mirror those of Maltese speakers in a wug test. Our results indicate that speakers rely on gradient knowledge of a relation between the phonetics of whole words and plural classes, which is learned in an error-driven way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence-based STI (science, technology, and innovation) policy making requires accurate indicators of innovation in order to promote economic growth. However, traditional indicators from patents and questionnaire-based surveys often lack coverage, granularity as well as timeliness and may involve high data collection costs, especially when conducted at a large scale. Consequently, they struggle to provide policy makers and scientists with the full picture of the current state of the innovation system. In this paper, we propose a first approach on generating web-based innovation indicators which may have the potential to overcome some of the shortcomings of traditional indicators. Specifically, we develop a method to identify product innovator firms at a large scale and very low costs. We use traditional firm-level indicators from a questionnaire-based innovation survey (German Community Innovation Survey) to train an artificial neural network classification model on labelled (product innovator/no product innovator) web texts of surveyed firms. Subsequently, we apply this classification model to the web texts of hundreds of thousands of firms in Germany to predict whether they are product innovators or not. We then compare these predictions to firm-level patent statistics, survey extrapolation benchmark data, and regional innovation indicators. The results show that our approach produces reliable predictions and has the potential to be a valuable and highly cost-efficient addition to the existing set of innovation indicators, especially due to its coverage and regional granularity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasons are known to have a major influence on groundwater recharge and therefore groundwater levels; however, underlying relationships are complex and partly unknown. The goal of this study is to investigate the influence of the seasons on groundwater levels (GWLs), especially during low-water periods. For this purpose, we train artificial neural networks on data from 24 locations spread throughout Germany. We exclusively focus on precipitation and temperature as input data and apply layer-wise relevance propagation to understand the relationships learned by the models to simulate GWLs. We find that the learned relationships are plausible and thus consistent with our understanding of the major physical processes. Our results show that for the investigated locations, the models learn that summer is the key season for periods of low GWLs in fall, with a connection to the preceding winter usually only being subordinate. Specifically, dry summers exhibit a strong influence on low-water periods and generate a water deficit that (preceding) wet winters cannot compensate for. Temperature is thus an important proxy for evapotranspiration in summer and is generally identified as more important than precipitation, albeit only on average. Single precipitation events show by far the largest influences on GWLs, and summer precipitation seems to mainly control the severeness of low-GWL periods in fall, while higher summer temperatures do not systematically cause more severe low-water periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Soil reflectance composites were generated with Sentinel-2 L2A data. • A multi-channel CNN learning framework for soil organic carbon prediction is proposed. • A dual input deep learning architecture improves the predictions. • The framework produced results that can be interpreted. The Copernicus Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery data may be aggregated to extract large-scale, bare soil, reflectance composites, which enable soil mapping applications. In this paper, this approach was tested in the German federal state of Bavaria, to provide estimations for soil organic carbon (SOC). Different temporal ranges were considered for the generation of the composites, including multi-annual and seasonal ranges. A novel multi-channel convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed. By leveraging the advantages of deep learning techniques, it utilizes complementary information from different spectral pre-treatment techniques. The SOC predictions indicated little dissimilarity amongst the different composites, with the best performance attained for the six-year composite containing only spring months (RMSE = 12.03 g C · kg−1, R2 = 0.64, RPIQ = 0.89). It has been demonstrated that these outcomes outperform other well-known machine learning techniques. An ablation analysis was accordingly performed to evaluate the interplay of the CNN's different components to disentangle the advantages of each aspect of the proposed framework. Finally, a DUal inPut deep LearnIng architecture, named DUPLICITE, is proposed, which concatenates deep spectral features derived from the CNN mentioned earlier, as well as topographical and environmental covariates through an artificial neural network (ANN) to exploit their complementarity. The proposed approach was demonstrated to provide an improvement in the overall prediction performance (RMSE = 11.60 gC · kg−1, R2 = 0.67, RPIQ = 0.92). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a primary microvascular complication of diabetes with limited therapeutic effects. Delving into the pathogenic mechanisms of DKD and identifying new therapeutic targets is crucial. Emerging studies reveal the implication of ferroptosis and immune dysregulation in the pathogenesis of DKD, however, the precise relationship between them remains not fully elucidated. Investigating their interplay is pivotal to unraveling the pathogenesis of diabetic kidney disease, offering insights crucial for targeted interventions and improved patient outcomes. Methods: Integrated analysis, Consensus clustering, Machine learning including Generalized Linear Models (GLM), RandomForest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (xGB), Artificial neural network (ANN) methods of DKD glomerular mRNA sequencing were performed to screen DKD-related ferroptosis genes.CIBERSORT, ESTIMATE and ssGSEA algorithm were used to assess the infiltration of immune cells between DKD and control groups and in two distinct ferroptosis phenotypes. The ferroptosis hub genes were verified in patients with DKD and in the db/db spontaneous type 2 diabetes mouse model via immunohistochemical and Western blotting analyses in mouse podocyte MPC5 and mesangial SV40-MES-13 cells under high-glucose (HG) conditions. Results: We obtained 16 differentially expressed ferroptosis related genes and patients with DKD were clustered into two subgroups by consensus clustering. Five ferroptosis genes (DUSP1,ZFP36,PDK4,CD44 and RGS4) were identified to construct a diagnostic model with a good diagnosis performance in external validation. Analysis of immune infiltration revealed immune heterogeneity between DKD patients and controls.Moreover, a notable differentiation in immune landscape, comprised of Immune cells, ESTIMATE Score, Immune Score and Stromal Score was observed between two FRG clusters. GSVA analysis indicated that autophagy, apoptosis and complement activation can participate in the regulation of ferroptosis phenotypes. Experiment results showed that ZFP36 was significantly overexpressed in both tissue and cells while CD44 was on the contrary.Meanwhile,spearman analysis showed both ZFP36 and CD44 has a strong correlation with different immune cells,especially macrophage. Conclusion: The regulation of the immune landscape in DKD is significantly influenced by the focal point on ferroptosis. Newly identified ferroptosis markers, CD44 and ZFP36, are poised to play essential roles through their interactions with macrophages, adding substantial value to this regulatory landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: YOLO (You Look Only Once) is an algorithm based on deep neural networks with real-time object detection capabilities. This state-of-the-art technology is widely available, mainly due to its speed and precision. Since its conception, YOLO has been applied to detect and recognize traffic signs, pedestrians, traffic lights, vehicles, and so on. Objective: The goal of this research is to systematically analyze the YOLO object detection algorithm, applied to traffic sign detection and recognition systems, from five relevant aspects of this technology: applications, datasets, metrics, hardware, and challenges. Method: This study performs a systematic literature review (SLR) of studies on traffic sign detection and recognition using YOLO published in the years 2016–2022. Results: The search found 115 primary studies relevant to the goal of this research. After analyzing these investigations, the following relevant results were obtained. The most common applications of YOLO in this field are vehicular security and intelligent and autonomous vehicles. The majority of the sign datasets used to train, test, and validate YOLO-based systems are publicly available, with an emphasis on datasets from Germany and China. It has also been discovered that most works present sophisticated detection, classification, and processing speed metrics for traffic sign detection and recognition systems by using the different versions of YOLO. In addition, the most popular desktop data processing hardwares are Nvidia RTX 2080 and Titan Tesla V100 and, in the case of embedded or mobile GPU platforms, Jetson Xavier NX. Finally, seven relevant challenges that these systems face when operating in real road conditions have been identified. With this in mind, research has been reclassified to address these challenges in each case. Conclusions: This SLR is the most relevant and current work in the field of technology development applied to the detection and recognition of traffic signs using YOLO. In addition, insights are provided about future work that could be conducted to improve the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting changes in soil micro-relief in farmland helps to understand degradation processes like sheet erosion. Using the high-resolution technique of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), we generated point clouds of three 2 × 3 m plots on a weekly basis from May to mid-June in 2022 on cultivated farmland in Germany. Three well-known applications for eliminating vegetation points in the generated point cloud were tested: Cloth Simulation Filter (CSF) as a filtering method, three variants of CANUPO as a machine learning method, and ArcGIS PointCNN as a deep learning method, a sub-category of machine learning using deep neural networks. We assessed the methods with hard criteria such as F1 score, balanced accuracy, height differences, and their standard deviations to the reference surface, resulting in data gaps and robustness, and with soft criteria such as time-saving capacity, accessibility, and user knowledge. All algorithms showed a low performance at the initial measurement epoch, increasing with later epochs. While most of the results demonstrate a better performance of ArcGIS PointCNN, this algorithm revealed an exceptionally low performance in plot 1, which is describable by the generalization gap. Although CANUPO variants created the highest amount of data gaps, we recommend that CANUPO include colour values in combination with CSF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the electrical power output and energy yield of high concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) modules is a hard task because of the many parameters involved. In this work, we propose the usage of an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method to estimate the maximum power output of a FLATCON® CPV-module manufactured by Fraunhofer ISE. The advantage of the ANN is that it is a part of the Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning domain, which makes it easy to model complex systems. A detailed knowledge about the underlying module technology is not necessary. In this work, various meteorological parameters are tested as inputs of the ANN including spectral matching ratios for considering the spectral variation of the solar irradiance to evaluate the maximum power output of the HCPV module under study. Eleven scenarios considering different combinations of input parameters have been investigated. It is demonstrated that the ANN gives excellent results and allows for an accurate prediction of the HCPV module's instantaneous power output with only a few amount of data used on training the ANN. The model has been tested using the measured data set of a FLATCON® CPV-module located on the rooftop of the Fraunhofer ISE in Freiburg, Germany. The module has been electrically characterized outdoors in the period from April 2013 to April 2014. The accuracy of the proposed ANN approach was analyzed using this measurement data in combination with error metrics. It was found that the best agreement between the measured and the predicted maximum power output was achieved when using direct normal irradiance, wind speed, ambient temperature and spectral matching ratios as input. The normalized root mean square error for the maximum power output over one year is found to be between 2.2 and 4.6%. The deviation of the modelled energy yield to the measured one is in the range of 0.2–2.2%. • We use ANN method to predict the maximum power output of a FLATCON® CPV-module. • The accuracy of model used was validated through measurements and metrics errors. • The spectral effect of DNI through the use of SMRs has improved the model performance. • The knowledge of module technology is not necessary for performance prediction. • Only small amount of data are needed for performance prediction using this approach. Short Abstract: This paper uses the artificial Neural Networks model to estimate the electrical power and the energy yield of high concentration photovoltaic modules. The model has been verified using a whole year measurement data of power output of FLATCON CPV Module manufactured by Fraunhofer ISE, Germany. A best agreement between the measured and computed energy output was found trough the analysis of eleven scenarios where different input parameters were combined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather is a pivotal factor for crop production as it is highly volatile and can hardly be controlled by farm management practices. Since there is a tendency towards increased weather extremes in the future, understanding weather-related yield factors becomes increasingly important not only for yield prediction, but also for the design of insurance products. Although insurance products mitigate financial losses for farmers, they suffer from considerable basis risk, i.e., a discrepancy between losses and the indemnity payment. The objective of this paper was to explore the potential of machine learning for estimating the relationship between crop yield and weather conditions at the farm level and to use it as a tool for reducing basis risk in index insurance applications. An artificial neural network was set up and calibrated to a rich set of farm-level yield data in Germany, covering the period from 2003 to 2018. A nonlinear regression model, which uses rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture as explanatory variables for yield deviations, served as a benchmark. The empirical application revealed that compared with traditional estimation approaches, the gain in forecasting precision by using machine learning techniques was substantial. Moreover, the use of regionalized models and disaggregated high-resolution weather data improved the performance of artificial neural networks. A considerable part of yield variability at the farm level, however, could not be captured by statistical methods which solely use "big weather data". Our findings have important implications for the design of weather-index based insurance because they document that a rather high level of basis risk remains if insurance products are based on an estimation of the weather-yield relationship. [Display omitted] • Due to increasing weather extremes in the future, understanding weather-related yield factors becomes more important. • This paper explores the potential of machine learning for estimating farm-level yield losses and basis risk reduction. • Use of high-resolution weather data improves the performance of artificial neural networks for estimating yield losses. • More homogenous insurance zones can reduce the basis risk and improve estimation precision. • The findings have implications for the design of weather-index based insurances because a rather high level of basis risk remains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study was conducted to understand the research hotspots, research trends and research frontiers for hypothermia in surgical patients and provide a reference for developing effective measures to reduce the incidence of hypothermia in these patients. Design: Using CiteSpace software, a visual analysis of 1288 included articles related to hypothermia in surgical patients was performed. Methods: CiteSpace software is a Java application that supports knowledge research, data visualization and analysis of literature databases. The following data were retrieved: title, abstract, year, keywords, author, academic institution, journal and citations. The included literature was analysed using CiteSpace visualization software, knowledge mapping, collaborative network analysis, cluster analysis and highlighting keywords for visualization. Results: A total of 1288 articles related to hypothermia in surgical patients were included, with the largest number of articles published in the United States (448), followed by in Germany (104) and China (102). The top three institutions, journals and authors were from the United States. The most common keywords were perioperative 'hypothermia', 'risk factors' and 'anesthesia'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Several recent publications have demonstrated the use of convolutional neural networks to classify images of melanoma at par with board-certified dermatologists. However, the non-availability of a public human benchmark restricts the comparability of the performance of these algorithms and thereby the technical progress in this field. Methods An electronic questionnaire was sent to dermatologists at 12 German university hospitals. Each questionnaire comprised 100 dermoscopic and 100 clinical images (80 nevi images and 20 biopsy-verified melanoma images, each), all open-source. The questionnaire recorded factors such as the years of experience in dermatology, performed skin checks, age, sex and the rank within the university hospital or the status as resident physician. For each image, the dermatologists were asked to provide a management decision (treat/biopsy lesion or reassure the patient). Main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and the receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Results Total 157 dermatologists assessed all 100 dermoscopic images with an overall sensitivity of 74.1%, specificity of 60.0% and an ROC of 0.67 (range = 0.538–0.769); 145 dermatologists assessed all 100 clinical images with an overall sensitivity of 89.4%, specificity of 64.4% and an ROC of 0.769 (range = 0.613–0.9). Results between test-sets were significantly different (P < 0.05) confirming the need for a standardised benchmark. Conclusions We present the first public melanoma classification benchmark for both non-dermoscopic and dermoscopic images for comparing artificial intelligence algorithms with diagnostic performance of 145 or 157 dermatologists. Melanoma Classification Benchmark should be considered as a reference standard for white-skinned Western populations in the field of binary algorithmic melanoma classification. Highlights • This paper provides the first open access melanoma classification benchmark for both non-dermoscopic and dermoscopic images. • Algorithms can now be easily compared to the performance of dermatologists in terms of sensitivity, specificity and ROC. • The melanoma benchmark allows comparability between algorithms of different publications and provides a new reference standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The used car market has a high global economic importance, with more than 35 million cars sold yearly. Accurately predicting prices is a crucial task for both buyers and sellers to facilitate informed decisions in terms of opportunities or potential problems. Although various machine learning techniques have been applied to create robust prediction models, a comprehensive approach has yet to be studied. This research introduced two datasets from different markets, one with over 300,000 entries from Germany to serve as a training basis for deep prediction models and a second dataset from Romania containing more than 15,000 car quotes used mainly to observe local traits. As such, we included extensive cross-market analyses by comparing the emerging Romanian market versus one of the world's largest and most developed car markets, Germany. Our study used several neural network architectures that captured complex relationships between car model features, individual add-ons, and visual features to predict used car prices accurately. Our models achieved a high R2 score exceeding 0.95 on both datasets, indicating their effectiveness in estimating used car prices. Moreover, we experimented with advanced convolutional architectures to predict car prices based solely on visual features extracted from car images. This approach exhibited transfer-learning capabilities, leading to improved prediction accuracy, especially since the Romanian training dataset was limited. Our experiments highlighted the most important factors influencing the price, while our findings have practical implications for buyers and sellers in assessing the value of vehicles. At the same time, the insights gained from this study enable informed decision making and provide valuable guidance in the used car market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper explores probabilistic extensions to Deep Learning algorithms and their application on energy time series forecasting. • The methods tested are concrete Dropouts, deep Ensembles, bayesian neural Networks, deep gaussian Processes, and functional neural processes. • The methods are evaluated in terms of calibration, sharpness, and how well they indicate a lack of knowledge (Epistemic Uncertainty). • Good epistemic uncertainty estimates were given using functional neural Processes, deep Ensembles, and deep gaussian processes methods, while concrete dropouts and bayesian neural networks needed tunning for better performance. • The application of the methods was feasible for energy time series forecasting, and they produced good estimates of their confidence in a forecast. Deep Learning methods are widely successful and continue to be applied in new fields, including forecasting for energy time series. However, they lack an indication of their confidence in predictions, which helps evaluate, interpret, and improve the forecasting. This paper explores probabilistic extensions to Deep Learning algorithms and their application on energy time series forecasting. The methods tested are Concrete Dropouts, Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Neural Networks, Deep Gaussian Processes, and Functional Neural Processes. For evaluation, two load forecasting scenarios are considered: 1-hour-ahead and 24-hour-ahead load forecasting. The methods are evaluated in terms of calibration, sharpness, and how well they indicate a lack of knowledge (Epistemic Uncertainty). As a reference, simple Neural Network and Quantile Regression models are used. Also, the ARIMA model and Persistence model are implemented to compare the results. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are computed to measure the error performance. Based on endogenous load time series in Germany, the results showed that Concrete Dropout, Deep Ensembles, and Bayesian Neural Networks performed similarly well and better than the reference methods. They also indicated that the simpler Concrete Dropout and Deep Ensembles have an advantage in both speed and convergence time. Good Epistemic Uncertainty estimates were given using Functional Neural Processes, Deep Ensembles, and Deep Gaussian Processes methods, while Concrete dropouts and Bayesian Neural Networks needed tunning for better performance. The application of the methods was feasible for energy time series forecasting, and they produced good estimates of their confidence in a forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present the estimation of surface NO 2 concentrations over Germany using a machine learning approach. TROPOMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs) and several meteorological parameters are used to train the neural network model for the prediction of surface NO 2 concentrations. The neural network model is validated against ground-based in situ air quality monitoring network measurements and regional chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. Neural network estimation of surface NO 2 concentrations show good agreement with in situ monitor data with Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of 0.80. The results also show that the machine learning approach is performing better than regional CTM simulations in predicting surface NO 2 concentrations. We also performed a sensitivity analysis for each input parameter of the neural network model. The validated neural network model is then used to estimate surface NO 2 concentrations over Germany from 2018 to 2020. Estimated surface NO 2 concentrations are used to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics, such as seasonal and weekly variations of NO 2 in Germany. The estimated surface NO 2 concentrations provide comprehensive information of NO 2 spatial distribution which is very useful for exposure estimation. We estimated the annual average NO 2 exposure for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 15.53, 15.24 and 13.27 µ g/m 3 , respectively. While the annual average NO 2 concentration of 2018, 2019 and 2020 is only 12.79, 12.60 and 11.15 µ g/m 3 . In addition, we used the surface NO 2 data set to investigate the impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on ambient NO 2 levels in Germany. In general, 10–30% lower surface NO 2 concentrations are observed in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019, indicating the significant impacts of a series of restriction measures to reduce the spread of the virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key goal of sediment management is the quantification of suspended sediment load (SSL) in rivers. This research focused on a comparison of different means of suspended sediment estimation in rivers. This includes sediment rating curves (SRC) and soft computing techniques, i.e., local linear regression (LLR), artificial neural networks (ANN) and the wavelet-cum-ANN (WANN) method. Then, different techniques were applied to predict daily SSL at the Pirna and Magdeburg Stations of the Elbe River in Germany. By comparing the results of all the best models, it can be concluded that the soft computing techniques (LLR, ANN and WANN) better predicted the SSL than the SRC method. This is due to the fact that the former employed non-linear techniques for the data series reconstruction. The WANN models were the overall best performer. The WANN models in the testing phase showed a mean R2 of 0.92 and a PBIAS of −0.59%. Additionally, they were able to capture the suspended sediment peaks with greater accuracy. They were more successful as they captured the dynamic features of the non-linear and time-variant suspended sediment load, while other methods used simple raw data. Thus, WANN models could be an efficient technique to simulate the SSL time series because they extract key features embedded in the SSL signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of dead zoning (hypoxia) has been reported as a consequence of declining levels of dissolved oxygen in coastal oceans all over the globe. Despite substantial efforts a quantitative description of hypoxia up to a level enabling reliable predictions has not been achieved yet for most regions of societal interest. This does also apply to Eckernförde Bight (EB) situated in the Baltic Sea, Germany. The aim of this study is to dissect underlying mechanisms of hypoxia in EB, to identify key sources of uncertainties, and to explore the potential of existing monitoring programs to predict hypoxia by developing and documenting a workflow that may be applicable to other regions facing similar challenges. Our main tool is an ultra-high spatially resolved general ocean circulation model based on a code framework of proven versatility in that it has been applied to various regional and even global simulations in the past. Our model configuration features a spacial horizontal resolution of 100m (unprecedented in the underlying framework which is used in both global and regional applications) and includes an elementary representation of the biogeochemical dynamics of dissolved oxygen. In addition, we integrate artificial "clocks" that measure the residence time of the water in EB along with timescales of (surface) ventilation. Our approach relies on an ensemble of hindcast model simulations, covering the period from 2000 to 2018, designed to cover a range of poorly known model parameters for vertical background mixing (diffusivity) and local oxygen consumption within EB. Feed-forward artificial neural networks are used to identify predictors of hypoxia deep in EB based on data at a monitoring site at the entrance of EB. Our results consistently show that the dynamics of low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations in bottom waters deep inside EB is, to first order, determined by the following antagonistic processes: (1) the inflow of low-oxygenated water from the Kiel Bight (KB) – especially from July to October – and (2) the local ventilation of bottom waters by local (within EB) subduction and vertical mixing. Biogeochemical processes that consume oxygen locally are apparently of minor importance for the development of hypoxic events. Reverse reasoning suggests that subduction and mixing processes in EB contribute, under certain environmental conditions, to the ventilation of the KB by exporting recently ventilated waters enriched in oxygen. A detailed analysis of the 2017 fish-kill incident highlights the interplay between westerly winds importing hypoxia from KB and ventilating easterly winds which subduct oxygenated water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate and robust pathological image analysis for colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis is time-consuming and knowledge-intensive, but is essential for CRC patients' treatment. The current heavy workload of pathologists in clinics/hospitals may easily lead to unconscious misdiagnosis of CRC based on daily image analyses.Methods: Based on a state-of-the-art transfer-learned deep convolutional neural network in artificial intelligence (AI), we proposed a novel patch aggregation strategy for clinic CRC diagnosis using weakly labeled pathological whole-slide image (WSI) patches. This approach was trained and validated using an unprecedented and enormously large number of 170,099 patches, > 14,680 WSIs, from > 9631 subjects that covered diverse and representative clinical cases from multi-independent-sources across China, the USA, and Germany.Results: Our innovative AI tool consistently and nearly perfectly agreed with (average Kappa statistic 0.896) and even often better than most of the experienced expert pathologists when tested in diagnosing CRC WSIs from multicenters. The average area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of AI was greater than that of the pathologists (0.988 vs 0.970) and achieved the best performance among the application of other AI methods to CRC diagnosis. Our AI-generated heatmap highlights the image regions of cancer tissue/cells.Conclusions: This first-ever generalizable AI system can handle large amounts of WSIs consistently and robustly without potential bias due to fatigue commonly experienced by clinical pathologists. It will drastically alleviate the heavy clinical burden of daily pathology diagnosis and improve the treatment for CRC patients. This tool is generalizable to other cancer diagnosis based on image recognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pluvial floods in urban areas are caused by local, fast storm events with very high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings before the storm water reaches a watercourse. An increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and an ongoing urbanization may further increase the risk of pluvial flooding in many urban areas. Currently, warnings for pluvial floods are mostly limited to information on rainfall intensities and durations over larger areas, which is often not detailed enough to effectively protect people and goods. We present a proof‐of‐concept for an impact‐based forecasting system for pluvial floods. Using a model chain consisting of a rainfall forecast, an inundation, a contaminant transport and a damage model, we are able to provide predictions for the expected rainfall, the inundated areas, spreading of potential contamination and the expected damage to residential buildings. We use a neural network‐based inundation model, which significantly reduces the computation time of the model chain. To demonstrate the feasibility, we perform a hindcast of a recent pluvial flood event in an urban area in Germany. The required spatio‐temporal accuracy of rainfall forecasts is still a major challenge, but our results show that reliable impact‐based warnings can be forecasts are available up to 5 min before the peak of an extreme rainfall event. Based on our results, we discuss how the outputs of the impact‐based forecast could be used to disseminate impact‐based early warnings. Plain Language Summary: Pluvial floods are caused by local rain storms with extreme rainfall rates, which leads to immediate flooding of streets and buildings in urban areas. These events are expected to increase in the future due to climate change and growing urban areas. Pluvial floods are directly caused by a rainstorm, which gives citizens and emergency responders usually only a few minutes to act. Existing forecasting systems for pluvial floods are limited to rainfall forecasts that neither provide information about where a flood might occur nor how severe the impacts will be. Here, the main challenge is that current computer models that predict inundation take too long to run to release flood forecasts early enough. We present a new inundation model that can predict inundation for an upcoming flood event in a fraction of the time of existing models. We combine this model with models that predict the spreading of contamination (e.g., from a car accident) and the damage to residential buildings. For a real flood event we can show that this information can be released up to 5 min before the rainfall peak, which gives citizens and emergency responders the opportunities to safe lives and protect important valuables. Key Points: First impact‐based forecasting for pluvial foodsArtificial neural network inundation model significantly cuts calculation time to 0.1% of a physically based model with comparable accuracyForecast with estimates for inundated areas, spreading of contaminants and expected damage could be released 5 min before peak rainfall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human evaluation of pathological slides cannot accurately predict lymph node metastasis (LNM), although accurate prediction is essential to determine treatment and follow-up strategies for colon cancer. We aimed to develop accurate histopathological features for LNM in colon cancer. Methods: We developed a deep convolutional neural network model to distinguish the cancer tissue component of colon cancer using data from the tissue bank of the National Center for Tumor Diseases and the pathology archive at the University Medical Center Mannheim, Germany. This model was applied to whole-slide pathological images of colon cancer patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). The predictive value of the peri-tumoral stroma (PTS) score for LNM was assessed. Results: A total of 164 patients with stages I, II, and III colon cancer from TCGA were analyzed. The mean PTS score was 0.380 (± SD = 0.285), and significantly higher PTS scores were observed in patients in the LNM-positive group than those in the LNM-negative group (P < 0.001). In the univariate analyses, the PTS scores for the LNM-positive group were significantly higher than those for the LNM-negative group (P < 0.001). Further, the PTS scores in lymphatic invasion and any one of perineural, lymphatic, or venous invasion were significantly increased in the LNM-positive group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001). Conclusion: We established the PTS score, a simplified reproducible parameter, for predicting LNM in colon cancer using computer-based analysis that could be used to guide treatment decisions. These findings warrant further confirmation through large-scale prospective clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One month-ahead electricity prices open up a great potential for manufacturing companies that aim at reducing energy costs. On the machine level, an energy cost-oriented scheduling can be realized through determining the least electricity cost-intensive launch times for job processing during a day. To obtain reliable price information at production planning stage in advance, well-performing forecast models are required. In this paper, we apply a Weighted Nearest Neighbor (WNN) approach, a TBATS approach, and a Deep Feedforward Neural Network (DFNN) approach to forecast EPEX Spot day-ahead electricity prices of the European Energy Exchange in Germany/Austria, while accounting for a forecast horizon of up to one month. Model performances are compared by means of established error measures as well as by adjusted error measures to better interpret results from a production planner's point of view. For evaluation purposes, 1357 different forecasts were computed for each of the methods, allowing valid conclusions as to their performance. The results show that all approaches lead to acceptable accuracies. However, the DFNN outperforms WNN and TBATS, providing well-fitting forecasts even 29 days ahead. Image 1 • Artificial Neural Networks outperform TBATS and Weighted Nearest Neighbor. • Forecast results are highly applicable for mid-term production planning purposes. • Neural Network forecasts for longer terms are almost as precise as for shorter ones. • On average, only 5% of the adjusted forecasts exceed the limit of a 10.00 EUR error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With respect to their role in the global carbon cycle, natural peatlands are characterized by their ability to sequester atmospheric carbon. This trait is strongly connected to the water regime of these ecosystems. Large parts of the soil profile in natural peatlands are water saturated, leading to anoxic conditions and to a diminished decomposition of plant litter. In functioning peatlands, the rate of carbon fixation by plant photosynthesis is larger than the decomposition rate of dead organic material. Over time, the amount of carbon that remains in the soil and is not converted back to carbon dioxide grows. Land use of peatlands often goes along with water level manipulations and thereby with alterations of carbon flux dynamics. In this study, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) flux measurements from a bog site in northwestern Germany that has been heavily degraded by peat mining are presented. Two contrasting types of management have been implemented at the site: (1) drainage during ongoing peat harvesting on one half of the central bog area and (2) rewetting on the other half that had been taken out of use shortly before measurements commenced. The presented 2-year data set was collected with an eddy covariance (EC) system set up on a central railroad dam that divides the two halves of the (former) peat harvesting area. We used footprint analysis to split the obtained CO2 and CH4 flux time series into data characterizing the gas exchange dynamics of both contrasting land use types individually. The time series gaps resulting from data division were filled using the response of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to environmental variables, footprint variability, and fuzzy transformations of seasonal and diurnal cyclicity. We used the gap-filled gas flux time series from 2 consecutive years to evaluate the impact of rewetting on the annual vertical carbon balances of the cutover bog. Rewetting had a considerable effect on the annual carbon fluxes and led to increased CH4 and decreased CO2 release. The larger relative difference between cumulative CO2 fluxes from the rewetted (13±6 mol m -2 a -1) and drained (22±7 mol m -2 a -1) section occurred in the second observed year when rewetting apparently reduced CO2 emissions by 40 %. The absolute difference in annual CH4 flux sums was more similar between both years, while the relative difference of CH4 release between the rewetted (0.83±0.15 mol m -2 a -1) and drained (0.45±0.11 mol m -2 a -1) section was larger in the first observed year, indicating a maximum increase in annual CH4 release of 84 % caused by rewetting at this particular site during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall purpose of this study is to contribute to bridging the gap between people- and place-oriented approaches in the study of crime causation. To achieve this we will explore some core hypotheses derived from Situational Action Theory about what makes young people crime prone and makes places criminogenic, and about the interaction between crime propensity and criminogenic exposure predicting crime events. We will also calculate the expected reduction in aggregate levels of crime that will occur as a result of successful interventions targeting crime propensity and criminogenic exposure. To test the hypotheses we will utilize a unique set of space–time budget, small area community survey, land-use and interviewer-led questionnaire data from the prospective longitudinal Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) and an artificial neural network approach to modelling. The results show that people’s crime propensity (based on their personal morals and abilities to exercise self-control) has the bulk of predictive power, but also that including criminogenic exposure (being unsupervised with peers and engaged in unstructured activities in residential areas of poor collective efficacy or commercial centres) demonstrates a substantial increase in predictive power (in addition to crime propensity). Moreover, the results show that the probability of crime is strongest when a crime-prone person is in a criminogenic setting and, crucially, that the higher a person’s crime propensity the more vulnerable he or she is to influences of criminogenic exposure. Finally, the findings suggest that a reduction in people’s crime propensity has a much bigger impact on their crime involvement than a reduction in their exposure to criminogenic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

End-use specific residential electricity load profiles are of interest for energy system modelling that requires future load curves or demand-side management. We present a model that is applicable across countries to predict consumption on a regional and national scale, using openly available data. The model uses neural networks (NNs) to correlate measured consumption from one country (United Kingdom) with weather data and daily profiles of a mix of human activity and device specific power profiles. We then use region-specific weather data and time-use surveys as input for the trained NNs to predict unscaled electric load profiles. The total power profile consists of the end-use household load profiles scaled with real consumption. We compare the model's results with measured and independently simulated profiles of various European countries. The NNs achieve a mean absolute error compared with the average load of 6.5 to 33% for the test set. For Germany, the standard deviation between the simulation, the standard load profile H0, and measurements from the University of Applied Sciences Berlin is 26.5%. Our approach reduces the amount of input data required compared with existing models for modelling region-specific electricity load profiles considering end-uses and seasonality based on weather parameters. Hourly load profiles for 29 European countries based on four historical weather years are distributed under an open license. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the high demands of new technologies such as social networks, e-commerce and cloud computing, more energy is being consumed in order to store all the data produced and provide the high availability required. Over the years, this increase in energy consumption has brought about a rise in both the environmental impacts and operational costs. Some companies have adopted the concept of a green data center, which is related to electricity consumption and CO2 emissions, according to the utility power source adopted. In Brazil, almost 70% of electrical power is derived from clean electricity generation, whereas in China 65% of generated electricity comes from coal. In addition, the value per kWh in the US is much lower than in other countries surveyed. In the present work, we conducted an integrated evaluation of costs and CO2 emissions of the electrical infrastructure in data centers, considering the different energy sources adopted by each country. We used a multi-layered artificial neural network, which could forecast consumption over the following months, based on the energy consumption history of the data center. All these features were supported by a tool, the applicability of which was demonstrated through a case study that computed the CO2 emissions and operational costs of a data center using the energy mix adopted in Brazil, China, Germany and the US. China presented the highest CO2 emissions, with 41,445 tons per year in 2014, followed by the US and Germany, with 37,177 and 35,883, respectively. Brazil, with 8459 tons, proved to be the cleanest. Additionally, this study also estimated the operational costs assuming that the same data center consumes energy as if it were in China, Germany and Brazil. China presented the highest kWh/year. Therefore, the best choice according to operational costs, considering the price of energy per kWh, is the US and the worst is China. Considering both operational costs and CO2 emissions, Brazil would be the best option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife–vehicle collisions (WVCs) cause significant road mortality of wildlife and have led to the installation of protective measures along streets. Until now, it has been difficult to determine the impact of roadside infrastructure that might act as a barrier for animals. The main deficits are the lack of geodata for roadside infrastructure and georeferenced accidents recorded for a larger area. We analyzed 113 km of road network of the district Freyung-Grafenau, Germany, and 1571 WVCs, examining correlations between the appearance of WVCs, the presence or absence of roadside infrastructure, particularly crash barriers and fences, and the relevance of the blocking effect for individual species. To receive infrastructure data on a larger scale, we analyzed 5596 road inspection images with a neural network for barrier recognition and a GIS for a complete spatial inventory. This data was combined with the data of WVCs in GIS to evaluate the infrastructure's impact on accidents. The results show that crash barriers have an effect on WVCs, as collisions are lower on roads with crash barriers. In particular, smaller animals have a lower collision share. The risk reduction at fenced sections could not be proven as fenced sections are only available at 3% of the analyzed roads. Thus, especially the fence dataset must be validated by a larger sample number. However, these preliminary results indicate that the combination of artificial intelligence and GIS may be used to analyze and better allocate protective barriers or to apply it in alternative measures, such as dynamic WVC risk-warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]