Search

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be important policies to constrain China's economic and social development in the future. Based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, CGE model of carbon emission was constructed in this paper to simulate the influence of different scenarios of carbon emission reduction on economic and social development. The major contribution is to subdivide the energy sector according to primary energy and secondary energy, and construct the macro SAM table and micro SAM table of 21 energy sectors in 2017 to quantitatively simulate the impact of carbon emission reduction policies on China's economy and society, and put forward some policy suggestions based on this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employment is the foundation of people ’s livelihoods, and a low-carbon transition is a key development theme for China in the future. The impact of reducing CO2 emissions as a hard macroeconomic constraint on the labor market is an important economic issue. This paper used China’s low-carbon city pilot policy as a representative policy to study the low-carbon transition. Firstly, based on the analysis of typical economic facts and policy texts, it was found that there might exist two distinct low-carbon transition approaches in China. The study then examined the differences in the policy impact on labor employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities, analyzed the underlying mechanisms, and finally constructed a general equilibrium model based on the empirical findings to further elaborate the heterogeneous impact pathways from a theoretical perspective. The study showed that: ① There was a difference in the policy impact on employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities. The policy increased employment in secondary and tertiary industries and total employment in the first batch of pilot cities, but it increased employment in tertiary industries and decreased employment in secondary industries in the second batch of pilot cities. ② There was a difference in the mechanisms of policy impact on employment in the first and second batches of pilot cities. Under the influence of the policy, the first batch of pilot cities adopted the low-carbon transition approach of focusing resources on the secondary industry, while the second batch of pilot cities adopted the lowcarbon transition approach of focusing resources on the tertiary industry. ③ The low-carbon transition approaches of the two batches of pilot cities had their own advantages and disadvantages. The approach of the first batch of pilot cities achieved a reduction in total CO2 emissions and an increase in the number of jobs, with the disadvantage of increasing the intensity of CO2 emissions and reducing the disposable income of workers, failing to improve the quality of employment. However, the approach of the second batch of pilot cities reduced the intensity of CO2 emissions, increased employment in the tertiary industry, and increased the disposable income of workers, effectively improving the quality of employment but failing to achieve a reduction in total CO2 emissions and an increase in total employment. Accordingly, China’s goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality can be achieved either by industrial transformation and upgrading or by enhancing the development of the tertiary industry, but the best way is to develop the tertiary industry on the basis of industrial transformation and upgrading without blindly adopting the de-industrialization approach to achieve the peak carbon emission goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rapid economic growth is accompanied by industrial agglomeration (IA) and environmental pollution. Although IA has played an important role in reducing environmental pollution, its effect on carbon emissions is still debatable and deserves further study. In this context, this paper constructs a two-sector general equilibrium model including households and firms to explore the mechanisms of IA on carbon emissions and finds that IA mainly affects carbon emissions through the agglomeration effect and congestion effect. Then, based on the balanced panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2019, this study employs the dynamic spatial panel model to investigate the nexus between different types of IA and carbon emissions. The empirical results reveal that a significant positive spatial dependence is verified in the regional carbon emissions of China, indicating that carbon emissions exhibit a remarkably spatial spillover effect. Meanwhile, there are significant variations in the influence of different types of IA on carbon emissions. Specifically, specialized agglomeration (SA) positively affects carbon emissions, while the impact of diversified agglomeration (DA) on carbon emissions is negative, implying that China's DA may contribute to carbon emission control. In addition, there is regional heterogeneity in the effect of IA on carbon emissions, with the western region having a significantly greater effect than the eastern and central regions. Therefore, the Chinese government should follow the notion of integrating territory administration and interregional communication and formulate regionally differentiated environmental governance policies to promote carbon emission reduction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background that China will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, analyzing the impact of carbon neutral target constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents is an important part of the design of a carbon emission reduction policy mechanism, in this paper, the dynamic recursive CGE(Computable general equilibrium) model is used to simulate the changes in welfare level, income consumption, and CO2 emissions of residents and their urban-rural heterogeneity under the policy of imposing a carbon tax on the fossil energy industry from 2022 to 2060. The results show that: compared with the BAU scenario, by 2060, first the income and consumption of residents will decrease slightly. Second, the target constraint of carbon neutrality makes the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban and rural residents' welfare decrease slightly, and the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban residents decrease more than those of rural residents. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the carbon-neutral target constraint makes the welfare of urban and rural residents decline slightly, but it will not have a strong impact on residents' income and consumption. Second, this constraint has a greater impact on the income, consumption and savings of urban residents than those of rural residents. [Display omitted] • A five-layer nested dynamic recursive CGE model is established to analyze residents' welfare. • Carbon taxes are incorporated into production decisions as a policy cost for energy companies. • The heterogeneity of the impact of carbon tax policy constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents was analyzed. • The government needs to improve the intensive and diversified energy supply in rural areas to reduce the urban-rural gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]