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Introduction: The Green Belt Biosphere Reserve, with 2.33 million hectares and its internal urban area with 220 thousand hectares, is configured as a water security territory and expresses a direct relationship between urban development and areas that ensure well-being and ecosystem services for 12% of Brazil's population. With seventy-eight municipalities that fully or partially integrate the GBBR, the socioeconomic differences and the different contexts of urbanization and governance reflect on territorial management at the local level and impact the environmental and regional sustainable development agendas. Objective: Based on a survey of environmental policies and correlations between economic and socio-environmental indicators on a municipal scale for the entire study area, this article assesses the level of development of the main environmental public policies and identifies the relationship between these policies and socio-environmental indicators. Originality: Although the Green Belt Biosphere Reserve is an area recognized by the United Nations (UN), the management of its territory depends on municipal actions that comprise it. Little attention has been paid to environmental management, especially in terms of public environmental policies and a broad and ongoing understanding of the conservation of this area. Results: The analysis shows that the different municipalities in the GBBR have different levels of implementation regarding Environmental Agenda. When considering the Municipal Plans for Urban Afforestation, Adaptation to Climate Change, Atlantic Forest and Solid Waste, only Guarujá, Mogi das Cruzes, Santos and São Paulo have these four policies in preparation or completed, while for 33.3% (n=25) of the municipalities, none of these agendas was developed, and a positive correlation was identified between the HDI and the largest number of implemented policies. Contribution: Large and medium-sized cities in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, present studies addressing ecological patterns and processes, however, they do not address specific questions on the environmental sector itself, which this paper aimed at providing. Conclusion: As the Green Belt accounts for 72% of the volume of drinking water in all of São Paulo, the disparities between the municipal indicators analyzed reinforce the need to adopt the GBBR as a platform for adequate governance to integrate policies at different scales for sustainable regional development. Systemic efforts are needed, especially at the municipal scale, in order to carry out adequate environmental management of the GBBR territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional approach to characterize extreme rainfall events is based on using past observed data to fit a probability distribution, which is used to associate a certain probability of occurrence to a rainfall magnitude, under a stationary assumption. Observed series, however, may exhibit trends and abrupt changes, resulting from the natural hydro climatic variability and the climate change context, which are not usually considered in the stationary modelling procedure and which may affect the characterization of extreme events. In this paper, it was evaluated the presence of these temporal changes in rainfall series and their impact to estimate design quantiles, using rainfall data of 317 stations, located in São Paulo State, Brazil. The results showed that extreme rainfall events are changing in the state. Low-return period events (up to 10 years) are intensifying. Moderate- and high-return period events, on the other hand, did not present a clear spatial pattern. Trends and abrupt changes may significantly influence the estimation of design quantiles. The presence of the former in rainfall series exhibited more influence on low-return period events, showing, however, no clear relationship with high-return period design quantiles. The presence of the latter seems to influence the characterization process, affecting estimated quantiles of all evaluated return periods. Such findings highlight the need to consider the presence of trends and abrupt changes and their influence on design quantiles for a more reliable characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reflects upon the everyday agency of marginalized youth in the Brazilian urban periphery in responding to the climate crisis. In the context of the global covid-19 crisis, which has exacerbated patterns of social exclusion between urban centers and peripheries, we reflect on the extent to which current theorizations of youth activism are appropriate for understanding youth agency in the periphery of Sao Paulo. We seek to 'blur the -ism' in climate activism by introducing more multi-faceted understandings of agency based on young people's everyday (inter-)actions with their environment as well as their contradicting emotions regarding their vulnerabilities and potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the study of climate change and environmental justice with a particular focus on a Global South case-study in the São Paulo Macro Metropolis of Brazil. We also aim to contribute to mandatory critical dialogue between (anticipatory) governance and environmental justice. This study focuses on the rainy seasons from 2016 to 2019. We examine the incidence of 61 extreme precipitation events, as well as 47 deaths caused by rain events, considering their location based on vulnerability indicators. The correlations among these data allow us to reveal the socio-environmental patterns within the relationships between social vulnerability and deaths caused by general rainfall and, more specifically, extreme events. Based on this, we demonstrate that current infrastructure or its lack is one of the reasons why death tolls remain due to the absence of anticipatory governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2013-2015 drought in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo exposed the lack of resilience of the regional water supply system, highly dependent on the Cantareira reservoirs. In this paper, inflows to each of the four main Cantareira reservoirs are tested for systematic change. Persistent trends in streamflow, rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are first evaluated. Streamflow was also tested for step change. Double-mass curves were employed to assess modification in the precipitation-runoff relationship. Subsequently, we used the climate elasticity method and the ABCD model to quantify the relative contribution of climate and human activities into the detected trends. Only Cachoeira and Atibainha sub-basins showed a significant downward trend in streamflow. The results for step change were also significant, and the year of occurrence coincided with breakpoints in precipitation-runoff relationship. For both Cachoeira and Atibainha, human activities had a more significant impact on streamflow reduction than climate variability. Land use and cover maps suggest that the reduction of pasture/abandoned land parallel to an increase in reforestation/silviculture is behind streamflow reduction. The results highlight the importance of coordinating land-use patterns and water management, as an important contributor beyond any considerations of a changing climate. Implications for better managing regional water resources are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy-season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall-related hazards in theMASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in theMASP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of this paper is the residential buildings’ thermal performance and comfort in the city of São Paulo, taking into account the climate changes and the greater vulnerability of the elderly related to the environmental conditions. The aim is the evaluation of thermal performance and comfort in residential buildings under the RCP 8.5 scenario from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, as well as under the heat wave occurred in January and February 2014. This study is based on real case studies and computer simulations carried out using EDSL TAS. Three elderly dwellings were surveyed and monitored aiming the comparison between measurements and computer simulation to calibrate the models. For the computer simulations, simulated and measured climate data were employed. Results were analyzed comparing comfort conditions in the different climate scenarios and among the case studies, following two adaptive comfort indexes selected for this study. Analysis revealed a tendency of change in comfort conditions following the progression of the climate scenarios, showing an increase in heat sensation and a decrease in cold sensation. The results show that the combination of both phenomena, climate change and heat wave, may lead to a potential effect of heat discomfort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]