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Climate adaptation for Indigenous communities is not as simple as making good policy; it is equally about how policy is implemented and how collaboration unfolds between settler governments and Indigenous stakeholders. Rural Alaska Native villages are among the most environmentally threatened communities in the United States. Their ability to effectively manage environmental change and preserve sovereignty depends upon successful collaboration with a range of stakeholders, especially federal agencies. For more than two decades, academics and government agencies have documented a consistent pattern of failures, particularly by federal actors, to effectively manage adaptation challenges. These obstacles are sometimes misrepresented as policy failures. While poor policy is certainly involved in these poor outcomes, this paper highlights a set of barriers to successful collaboration that are not policy issues, per se, but rather micropolitical issues; that is, they pertain to the conduct of government in the context of Tribal relationships. Unaddressed, these micropolitical issues have created obstacles to Alaska Native communities' self-determination as they adapt to a changing landscape. These barriers are explored in a case study drawn from Typhoon Merbok, which struck Western Alaska in 2022, and empirically grounded in a series of interviews and participant observation with experts, elders, elected officials, and Tribal staff. This article concludes with several concrete recommendations to improve the practice of domestic diplomacy between Indigenous communities and colonial governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite perceptions of high water availability, adequate access to sufficient water resources remains a major challenge in Alaska. This paper uses a participatory modeling approach to investigate household water vulnerability in remote Alaska and to examine factors that affect water availability and water access. Specifically, the work asks: how do water policy stakeholders conceptualize the key processes that affect household water vulnerability in the context of rural Alaska? Fourteen water policy stakeholders participated in the modeling process, which included defining the problem of household water vulnerability and constructing individual causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that represent their conceptualization of household water vulnerability. Individual CLDs were subsequently combined and five sub-models emerged: environmental, economic, infrastructure, social, and health. The environmental and economic sub-models of the CLD are explored in depth. In the environmental sub-model, climate change and environmental barriers due to geography influence household water vulnerability. In the economic sub-model, four processes and one feedback loop affect household water vulnerability, including operations and maintenance funding, the strength of the rural Alaskan economy, and the impact of regulations. To overcome household water vulnerability and make households more resilient, stakeholders highlighted policy solutions under five themes: economics, social, regulatory, technological, and environmental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the human dimensions of global climate change should consider the way at-risk populations confront uncertainty through cultural practices. This is a vital point for indigenous peoples around the world, but particularly for those in the Arctic region where the effects of climate change are most dramatic. The Iñupiat of Arctic Alaska are especially susceptible to climatic and associated environmental changes, because they rely on sea ice to hunt the bowhead whale. Employing a humanistic approach, this paper reveals Iñupiaq cultural resilience by exploring how collective uncertainty tied to the effects of climate change is manifested in Iñupiaq lives. These experiences show how the human dimensions of climate change, cultural resilience, and identity politics are integrated in the Arctic. By reinforcing their cultural relationship with the bowhead whale, these Iñupiat better cope with an unpredictable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold exposure remains a significant public health concern, particularly in the Arctic regions prone to extremely cold weather. While the physical health impacts of cold exposure are well documented, understanding the social vulnerability aspects is crucial for effective mitigation and policy development. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of social vulnerability in the face of cold temperatures across various communities in Alaska. Alaska, renowned for its extreme cold temperatures and harsh environmental conditions, poses unique challenges to its residents, particularly in the context of social vulnerability. Drawing on a combination of quantitative data analysis and qualitative insights, we examine the factors contributing to social vulnerability, including demographic, economic, geographic, and infrastructural elements, in terms of the Extremely Cold Social Vulnerability Index, for seven Public Health Regions in Alaska. The Universal Thermal Climate Index in two very cold categories (<−27 °C) was used to identify cold exposure. Factors such as income, housing quality, health status, and resilience of the population play crucial roles in determining an individual or community's sensitivity to, and ability to cope with, cold temperatures. Our analysis reveals that social vulnerability in Alaska is not uniform but varies significantly among regions. The research findings highlight the importance of considering factors of both sensitivity and adaptivity in understanding and addressing social vulnerability, thereby informing the development of targeted strategies and policies to enhance the resilience of Alaskan communities. As cold temperatures are projected to continue to challenge the region, addressing social vulnerability is essential for ensuring the well-being and safety of Alaska's diverse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is myriad evidence that global warming is exerting a profoundly disruptive influence on the lifeways of modern native (Yup'ik) communities living in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) delta of southwestern Alaska. Yup'ik subsistence is intimately tied to seasonal change and the ability to accurately predict the availability of plant and animal resources. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that periods of climatic instability such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) may have had a deleterious effect on Yup'ik communities in the past. However, at present there are no palaeotemperature records that document the localised climatic changes of the last millennium in the Y-K Delta region. This lack of data hinders our understanding of the archaeological record from the site of Nunalleq, which is situated at the heart of the delta and was occupied during the LIA. To address this oversight, this paper presents the results of a Coleoptera (beetle) based climate reconstruction from a peat profile in the vicinity of Nunalleq to investigate the magnitude of Late Holocene climatic changes. Using the Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) method, we reconstruct mean summer and winter temperatures from the mid-15th to late-19th centuries. The results indicate that the past environments of Nunalleq were characterised by a climate significantly cooler than the present. The earliest definitive evidence for Little Ice Age cooling dates from the late 16th century, when mean summer temperatures were at least 1.2ᵒC below the modern mean. Temperatures appear to have remained lower than modern until the early 19th century. The coolest Nunalleq record – 1.3ᵒC below the modern mean summer temperatures – is centred on AD 1815, after which there is evidence for climatic amelioration. These data present differences with observations from other regions of Alaska and underline the importance of more local palaeoclimate reconstructions, particularly when interrogating the relationships between past climatic and social change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes set in arctic permafrost landscapes can be susceptible to rapid drainage and downstream flood generation. Of many thousands of lakes in northern Alaska, hundreds have been identified as having high drainage potential directly to river systems and 18 such drainage events have been documented since 1955. In 2018 we began monitoring a large lake with high drainage potential as part of a long‐term hydrological observation network designed to evaluate impacts of land use and climate change. In early June 2022, surface water was observed flowing over a 30‐m wide bluff, with active headward erosion of ice‐rich permafrost soils apparent by late June. This overflow point breached rapidly in early July, draining almost the entire lake within 12 h and generating a 191 m3/s flood to a downstream creek. Water level and turbidity sensors and time‐lapse cameras captured this rapid lake‐drainage event at high resolution. A wind‐driven surface seiche and warming waters following ice‐out helped trigger the initial thermomechanical breach. We estimate at least 600 MT of lake sediment was eroded, mobilized, and transported downstream. A flood wave peaking at 42 m3/s arrived 14 h after the initial breach at a river gauge 9‐km downstream. Comparing this event with three other quantified arctic lake‐drainage floods suggests that lake surface area coupled with drainage gradient height can predict outburst flood magnitude. Using this relationship we estimated future flood hazards from the 146 lakes in the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (ACP) with high drainage potential, of which 20% are expected to generate outburst floods exceeding 100 m3/s to downstream rivers. This fortunate and detailed drainage‐event observation adds to a growing body of research on the impact of lakes on arctic hydrology, hazard forecasting in a region with an increasing human footprint, and broader processes of landscape evolution in arctic lowlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the genetic makeup of Lutz spruce, a natural hybrid between white and Sitka spruce on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Microsatellites indicate 72% of individuals sampled had predominantly white spruce ancestry, whereas 14% had predominantly Sitka spruce ancestry; some individuals classified as white spruce had Sitka spruce plastid genotypes. As Picea mitochondria are maternally inherited and plastids are paternally inherited, it appears that white spruce was the ancestral seed parent of nearly all spruce on the western peninsula, whereas Sitka spruce alleles originated from pollen. Pollen records show that white spruce colonized the western peninsula ∼8500 YBP from glacial refugium, whereas Sitka spruce arrived on the eastern peninsula ∼4000 YBP after migrating up the Pacific coast. Our data suggest that Sitka spruce colonization west of the Kenai Mountains may have occurred not via seed dispersal but by long distance transport of wind-borne pollen and subsequent hybridization with established white spruce populations. Hybridization was an important mechanism that allowed Sitka spruce to expand the leading edge of its range in response to historical climate change. As the climate continues to warm, climate envelope modeling suggests Lutz spruce may ultimately displace white spruce on the western peninsula even as Sitka spruce is constrained to the eastern peninsula where it will continue to hybridize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The well-being of Indigenous communities in Alaska is inextricably linked to traditional harvest practices (THPs) such as hunting, fishing, and gathering local wild foods. Regional trends in the health of THPs have not been quantitatively evaluated in Alaska. Therefore, we surveyed Indigenous residents in the Western Coastal (n = 623) and Interior (n = 437) Regions of Alaska to estimate perceptions of the extent and cause of change in the health of THPs over the last ten years. We found that THPs improved in Western Coastal and declined in Interior Alaska. The best predictors of improvement or decline in the health of THPs were 1) change in the ability to share the harvest, 2) change in participation in hunting and fishing activities, and 3) extent of challenges caused by climate change. The odds of a decline in the health of THPs were 8 to 13 times higher for households that reported a decrease in sharing of traditional foods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manifestations of global warming in the Arctic include amplifications of temperature increases and a general increase in precipitation. Although topography complicates the pattern of these changes in regions such as Alaska, the amplified warming and general increase in precipitation are already apparent in observational data. Changes in snow cover are complicated by the opposing effects of warming and increased precipitation. In this study, high-resolution (0.25°) outputs from simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, were analyzed for changes in snow under stabilized global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. Future changes in snowfall are characterized by a north–south gradient over Alaska and an east–west gradient over Eurasia. Increased snowfall is projected for northern Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia, while milder regions such as southern Alaska and Europe receive less snow in a warmer climate. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the land area poleward of 55°N will experience a reduction in snow. The approximate threshold of global warming for a statistically significant increase in temperature over 50% of the pan-Arctic land area is 1.5 °C. The corresponding threshold for precipitation is approximately 2.0 °C. The global warming threshold for the loss of high-elevation snow in Alaska is approximately 2.0 °C. The results imply that limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target is necessary to prevent significant changes in winter climates in Alaska and the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While recent increases in heavy precipitation events in some midlatitude regions are consistent with climate model simulations, evidence of such increases in high latitudes is more tenuous, partly because of data limitations. The present study evaluates historical and future changes in extreme precipitation events in Alaska. Using the ERA5 reanalysis, station data, and output from two downscaled global climate models, we examine precipitation-driven flood events at five diverse locations in Alaska where major historical floods provide benchmarks: Fairbanks (August 1967), Seward (October 1986), Allakaket/Bettles (August 1994), Kivalina (August 2012), and Haines (December 2020). We place these precipitation events into a framework of historical trends and end-of-century (2065–2100) model projections. In all but one of the flood events, the amount of rainfall was the highest on record for the event duration, and precipitation events of this magnitude are generally projected by the models to remain infrequent. All of the cases had subtropical or tropical moisture sources. None of the locations show statistically significant historical trends in the magnitude of extreme precipitation events. However, the frequencies of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase at most of the locations. The frequency of events with 2 year and 5 year historical return intervals is projected to become more frequent, especially in the Interior, and in some cases increase to several times per year. Decreases are projected only for Seward along Alaska's southern coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Environmental conditions can influence animal movements, determining when and how much animals move. Yet few studies have quantified how abiotic environmental factors (e.g., ambient temperature, snow depth, precipitation) may affect the activity patterns and metabolic demands of wide-ranging large predators. We demonstrate the utility of accelerometers in combination with more traditional GPS telemetry to measure energy expenditure, ranging patterns, and movement ecology of 5 gray wolves (Canis lupus), a wide-ranging social carnivore, from spring through autumn 2015 in interior Alaska, USA. Results: Wolves exhibited substantial variability in home range size (range 500–8300 km2) that was not correlated with daily energy expenditure. Mean daily energy expenditure and travel distance were 22 MJ and 18 km day−1, respectively. Wolves spent 20% and 17% more energy during the summer pup rearing and autumn recruitment seasons than the spring breeding season, respectively, regardless of pack reproductive status. Wolves were predominantly crepuscular but during the night spent 2.4 × more time engaged in high energy activities (such as running) during the pup rearing season than the breeding season. Conclusion: Integrating accelerometry with GPS telemetry can reveal detailed insights into the activity and energetics of wide-ranging predators. Heavy precipitation, deep snow, and high ambient temperatures each reduced wolf mobility, suggesting that abiotic conditions can impact wolf movement decisions. Identifying such patterns is an important step toward evaluating the influence of environmental factors on the space use and energy allocation in carnivores with ecosystem-wide cascading effects, particularly under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network is an ongoing international effort to collect and disseminate standardized measurements of active-layer dynamics to monitor the response of near-surface permafrost parameters to climate change. This work presents a distillation of 25 years (1995–2019) of observations from three north–south transects of CALM sites in tundra environments of Alaska. Transects examined in this work bisect tundra regions of discontinuous permafrost on the Seward Peninsula, and the continuous permafrost zone on the western and eastern sections of the Arctic Foothills and Arctic Coastal Plain. These transects represent regional climatic gradients, several physiographic provinces, and regionally characteristic landcover associations. Total active-layer thickening at observed sites ranged from 7 to 26 cm; more significant thaw occurred in the foothills despite less pronounced warming air temperature trends. This summary highlights several regional active layer responses to climate warming, complicated by distinct thermal landscape sensitivities, landscape variability, and documented thaw subsidence. Data summarized in this report are publicly available and represent an important validation resource for earth-system models that include regions in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones of northern and western Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in summer temperatures in Arctic Alaska have led to longer and warmer growing seasons over the last three decades. Corresponding with these changes in climate, the abundance and distributions of geese have increased and expanded over the same period. We used an experimental approach to assess the response of goose forage plants to simulated environmental change. We subjected Carex subspathacea, a preferred goose forage growing on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, to manipulations of temperature and timing of spring thaw to measure potential effects in terms of plant nitrogen concentration, aboveground biomass, and total nitrogen availability. Carex subspathacea responded to warming in a dynamic fashion. Increases in temperature led to decreases in leaf nitrogen concentration but increases in aboveground biomass. The increase in biomass was stronger than the decline in nitrogen concentration such that total nitrogen availability was increased with temperature for the first 35–40 d of the season. Grazing removal accounted for only minimal offtake of biomass, and we found no indication that grazing maintained elevated levels of nitrogen concentration longer in the season as reported in other studies. Based on demonstrated relationships in the literature between forage nitrogen concentrations and gosling growth rates, we conclude that there is currently abundant high‐quality forage available across the ACP. This finding fits with recent evidence of high gosling growth rates and increasing trends in goose abundance on the ACP. Our results suggest that with climate warming of a few degrees, nitrogen concentration of forage may decrease, but forage biomass and total nitrogen availability will increase. Our data suggest that nitrogen concentration will not fall below the minimum threshold required by geese in the near future. As such, we suggest that there is currently no bottom‐up limitation to goose numbers on the ACP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring avian migration within subarctic regions of the globe poses logistical challenges. Populations in these regions often encounter the most rapid effects of changing climates, and these seasonally productive areas are especially important in supporting bird populations—emphasizing the need for monitoring tools and strategies. To this end, we leverage the untapped potential of weather surveillance radar data to quantify active migration through the airspaces of Alaska. We use over 400 000 NEXRAD radar scans from seven stations across the state between 1995 and 2018 (86% of samples derived from 2013 to 2018) to measure spring and autumn migration intensity, phenology and directionality. A large bow-shaped terrestrial migratory system spanning the southern two-thirds of the state was identified, with birds generally moving along a northwest–southeast diagonal axis east of the 150th meridian, and along a northeast–southwest axis west of this meridian. Spring peak migration ranged from 3 May to 30 May and between, 18 August and 12 September during the autumn, with timing across stations predicted by longitude, rather than latitude. Across all stations, the intensity of migration was greatest during the autumn as compared to spring, highlighting the opportunity to measure seasonal indices of net breeding productivity for this important system as additional years of radar measurements are amassed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass loss in Alaska has implications for global sea level rise, fresh water input into the Gulf of Alaska and terrestrial fresh water resources. We map all glaciers (>4000 km2) on the Kenai Peninsula, south central Alaska, for the years 1986, 1995, 2005 and 2016, using satellite images. Changes in surface elevation and volume are determined by differencing a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer stereo images in 2005 from the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar DEM of 2014. The glacier area shrunk by 543 ± 123 km2 (12 ± 3%) between 1986 and 2016. The region-wide mass-balance rate between 2005 and 2014 was −0.94 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 (−3.84 ± 0.50 Gt a−1), which is almost twice as negative than found for earlier periods in previous studies indicating an acceleration in glacier mass loss in this region. Area-averaged mass changes were most negative for lake-terminating glaciers (−1.37 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1), followed by land-terminating glaciers (−1.02 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1) and tidewater glaciers (−0.45 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1). Unambiguous attribution of the observed acceleration in mass loss over the last decades is hampered by the scarcity of observational data, especially at high elevation, and by large interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate–shrub–moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall‐shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Berry-producing plants are a key subsistence resource in Indigenous Alaskan communities. Coastal, high-latitude regions are particularly impacted by global climate change because their location at the land-sea ecotone subjects them to both terrestrial stressors and shifting ocean dynamics. Although changes in near-shore vegetation communities have been previously documented for the sub-Arctic coastal region of Alaska, we know little about vegetation dynamics in the permafrost-underlain portions of the landscape that support berry communities. To fill this gap, surveys were administered in four communities within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta to identify observations of changes in berry resources and integrate Indigenous Knowledge of drivers of changes with climate projections. We found that while many participants identified changes in berry phenology, abundance, and habitat related to climate drivers, important differences in responses were identified at the community level. Regional consensus can be used in combination with climate projections to forecast potential future impacts to berry resources, while distinctions at the community level can help to account for impacts of local scale disturbances and importance of social context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The body condition, abundance, and size of several vertebrate taxa occupying the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic have increased in this rapidly changing environment. Presently, anecdotal stakeholder reports suggest that anadromous populations of Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma in Arctic Alaska are attaining greater maximum sizes than reported in the past. However, growth analyses have not been conducted for any substantial period of time. To qualitatively examine one facet of growth, we reviewed scientific journal articles, gray literature, and unpublished data for reported maximum lengths of Dolly Varden from the Chukchi and Beaufort seas collected over the past ∼50 y (1969–2015). Regression analyses of maximum length of Dolly Varden from 1969 to 2015 support the observations that the maximum size of this species is likely increasing in a changing Arctic. These results, coupled with the lack of comprehensive growth data, highlight the importance of long-term monitoring of organismal responses to a changing environment and provide valuable direction for future research on this important subsistence resource for Indigenous peoples who inhabit the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of novel and disappeared climates between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the present is important to consider to understand the expansion and contraction of species niches and distributions, as well as the formation and loss of communities and ecological interactions over time. Our choice in climate data resolution has the potential to complicate predictions of the ecological impacts of climate change, since climate varies from local to global scales and this spatial variation is reflected in climate data. To address this issue, we downscaled LGM and modern (1975–2005) 30‐year averaged climate data to 60‐m resolution for the entire state of Alaska for 10 different climate variables, and then upsampled each variable to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km). We modeled the distributions of novel and disappeared climates to evaluate the locations and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates for each of our climate variables and resolutions. Generally, novel and disappeared climates were located in southern Alaska, although there were cases where some disappeared climates existed within coastal and interior Alaska. Climate resolution affected the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates in three patterns: As the spatial resolution of climate became coarser, the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates (a) increased, (b) decreased, or (c) had no explainable relationship. Overall, we found the use of coarser climate data increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates due to decreased environmental variability and removal of climate extremes. Our results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse climate data and suggest that studies analyzing the effects of climate change on ecosystems may overestimate or underestimate their conclusions when utilizing coarse climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many models used to estimate nutritional carrying capacity (NCC) for ungulates differ structurally, but the implications of those differences are frequently unclear. We present a comparative analysis of NCC estimates for a large herbivore in a dynamic landscape, using models that differ in structure and scope. We compared three model structures across three estimates of winter ranges under three winter-severity scenarios for an isolated, introduced moose Alces alces population on the Copper River Delta of south-central Alaska. Model estimates of NCC ranged from 205 to 4,592 moose, demonstrating the critical influences of model structure and assumptions when applying NCC. Furthermore, population estimates during recent severe winters suggest that past models underestimated NCC on the Copper River Delta. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of a preferred model and determined that model components with the highest and lowest sensitivity were snow depth and lignin- and tannin-caused reductions in forage nutritional quality, respectively. Our low sensitivity values for lignin and tannin influences on NCC contrast with results in other NCC estimates. Overall, our results reinforce the need for, and will hopefully assist, adaptive management in response to landscape, population, behavioral, and climatic changes on the Copper River Delta, and demonstrate the importance of understanding model assumptions and structure in application of NCC estimates in the management of large herbivores in variable ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950–2009) and a projection period (2010–2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10−3 W/m2. The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010–2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5–70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10–30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO2, increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO2) saturates as CO2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km2, an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1‐km resolution for the historical period (1950–2009) and future projection period (2010–2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5,556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO2 and biogenic methane (CH4) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO2 emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 Tg C/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO2 fertilization (~5% per 100 parts per million by volume increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO2 sequestration offset the increase in CH4 emissions during the 21st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO2 because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH4 emissions to increases in soil temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site‐level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south‐central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect‐related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early‐successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially extensive Arctic stable isotope data are sparse, inhibiting the climatic understanding required to interpret paleoclimate proxy records. To fill this need, we constrained the climatic and physiographic controls on δ18O and δD values of stream waters across Alaska and the Yukon to derive interpolated isoscape maps. δ18O is strongly correlated to winter temperature parameters and similarity of the surface water line (δ2H = 8.0 × δ18O + 6.4) to the Global Meteoric Water Line suggests stream waters are a proxy for meteoric precipitation. We observe extreme orographic δ18O decreases and a trans-Alaskan continental gradient of −8.3‰ 1000 km−1. Continental gradients are high in coastal zones and low in the interior. Localized δ18O increases indicate inland air mass penetration via topographic lows. Using observed δ18O/temperature gradients, we show that δ18O decreases in a ∼24 ka permafrost ice wedge relative to the late Holocene indicate mean annual and coldest quarter temperature reductions of 8.9 ± 1.7°C and 17.2 ± 3.2°C, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We remeasured a classic chronosequence study in the subalpine zone of the Alaska Range to evaluate how plant community attributes have changed across a set of different-aged terraces over a 54-yr period (1958-2012). Our work focused on whether the tempo and trajectory of successional development described in the original study have changed over this period during which summer temperatures warmed by approximately 2°C. Our work revealed a rapid increase in the distribution, stature, and abundance of balsam poplar trees that was unanticipated in the original successional model alongside evidence that established late-successional plant communities have changed relatively little over the same time period. The spatial distribution of poplar expansion was both directional and highly variable, with greater expansion occurring in sites that were young surfaces in 1958, or else were disturbed during the intervening period. We present evidence that early successional environments in this region may be particularly susceptible to rapid alteration stimulated by climate warming that has allowed tree establishment and growth in subalpine areas. Sparsely vegetated sites allow for invasion or expansion of some species to be quickly realized because there is less resistance from competition with established vegetation, including mosses that insulate and paludify the soil. We suggest that established vegetation communities may have physical characteristics (such as cold and/or acidic soil profiles) that are inimical to the establishment of balsam poplar and may also be a source of competitive inertia, conferring a measure of resistance to directional changes in the landscape mosaic. However, when an early successional species has traits that allow it to persist and fundamentally alter the vegetation mosaic over time, as is the case with balsam poplar, it may serve as the leading edge of compositional changes with profound consequences. Our results highlight the capacity of a single species to catalyze the changes that may eventually lead to the altering of an entire landscape mosaic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown. Objective: We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability. Methods: Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100. Results: Modeling predicted an 8.8-18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater. Conclusions: Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical and biological responses to rapid arctic warming are proving acute, and as such, there is a need to monitor, understand, and predict ecological responses over large spatial and temporal scales. The use of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired from airborne and satellite sensors addresses this need, as it is widely used as a tool for detecting and quantifying spatial and temporal dynamics of tundra vegetation cover, productivity, and phenology. Such extensive use of the NDVI to quantify vegetation characteristics suggests that it may be similarly applied to characterizing primary and secondary consumer communities. Here, we develop empirical models to predict canopy arthropod biomass with canopy-level measurements of the NDVI both across and within distinct tundra vegetation communities over four growing seasons in the Arctic Foothills region of the Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. When canopy arthropod biomass is predicted with the NDVI across all four growing seasons, our overall model that includes all four vegetation communities explains 63% of the variance in canopy arthropod biomass, whereas our models specific to each of the four vegetation communities explain 74% (moist tussock tundra), 82% (erect shrub tundra), 84% (riparian shrub tundra), and 87% (dwarf shrub tundra) of the observed variation in canopy arthropod biomass. our field-based study suggests that measurements of the NDVI made from air- and spaceborne sensors may be able to quantify spatial and temporal variation in canopy arthropod biomass at landscape to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal communities are among the most rapidly changing, institutionally complex, and culturally diverse in the world, and they are among the most vulnerable to anthropogenic change. While being a driver of anthropogenic change, tourism can also provide socio-economic alternatives to declining natural resource-based livelihoods for coastal residents. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of small-scale cruise tourism on coastal community resiliency in Petersburg, Alaska. Exploring these impacts through resiliency theory's lens of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, we employed ethnographic research methods that emphasize emic viewpoints to determine how residents see this form of tourism affecting the resiliency of valued community culture, institutions, and traditional livelihoods. Findings indicate that with purposeful engagement in niche cruise tourism involving boats with 250 passengers or less, and an active rejection of the large cruise ship industry, Petersburg exhibits increased adaptive capacity to promote the resilience of valued community institutions and heritage. This work draws needed recognition to the diversity of activities that fall under the label of cruise tourism, including the distinct implications of smaller-scale, niche cruise tourism for the resilience of coastal communities. It also highlights the need to capture emic perspectives to understand the politics of community resiliency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from snowcourse and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We present analyses of future downscaled PSF and two new products, October–March SFE and ratio of snow fall equivalent to precipitation (SFE:P) based on bias-corrected statistically downscaled projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) temperature and precipitation for the state of Alaska. We analyzed mid-century (2040–2069) and late-century (2070–2099) changes in PSF, SFE, and SFE:P relative to historical (1970–1999) mean temperature and present results for Alaska climate divisions and 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watersheds. Overall, estimated historical the SFE is reasonably well related to the observed SWE, with correlations over 0.75 in all decades, and correlations exceeding 0.9 in the 1960s and 1970s. In absolute terms, SFE is generally biased low compared to the observed SWE. PSF and SFE:P decrease universally across Alaska under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with the smallest changes for RCP 4.5 in 2040–2069 and the largest for RCP 8.5 in 2070–2099. The timing and magnitude of maximum decreases in PSF vary considerably with regional average temperature, with the largest changes in months at the beginning and end of the snow season. Mean SFE changes vary widely among climate divisions, ranging from decreases between −17 and −58% for late twenty-first century in southeast, southcentral, west coast and southwest Alaska to increases up to 21% on the North Slope. SFE increases most at highest elevations and latitudes and decreases most in coastal southern Alaska. SFE:P ratios indicate a broad switch from snow-dominated to transitional annual hydrology across most of southern Alaska by mid-century, and from transitional to rain-dominated watersheds in low elevation parts of southeast Alaska by the late twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]