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Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods: We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results: The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions: From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) is a flood-pulse system. It is the largest natural lake in South-East Asia and constitutes one of the largest fisheries over the world, supporting the livelihood of million peoples. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the annual flood-pulse of the TSL. Such modifications are expected to have strong impacts on fish biodiversity and abundance. This paper aims to characterize the spatio-temporal variations of fish taxonomic composition and to highlights the underlying determinants of these variations. For this purpose, we used data collected from a community catch monitoring program conducted at six sites during 141 weeks, covering two full hydrological cycles. For each week, we estimated beta diversity as the total variance of the site-by-species community matrix and partitioned it into Local Contribution to Beta Diversity (LCBD) and Species Contribution to Beta Diversity (SCBD). We then performed multiple linear regressions to determine whether species richness, species abundances and water level explained the temporal variation in the contribution of site and species to beta diversity. Our results indicate strong temporal variation of beta diversity due to differential contributions of sites and species to the spatial variation of fish taxonomic composition. We further found that the direction, the shape and the relative effect of species richness, abundances and water level on temporal variation in LCBD and SCBD values greatly varied among sites, thus suggesting spatial variation in the processes leading to temporal variation in community composition. Overall, our results suggest that fish taxonomic composition is not homogeneously distributed over space and time and is likely to be impacted in the future if the flood-pulse dynamic of the system is altered by human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to describe the spatial-temporal variability in catch of the main fishery resources of the Amazon River and floodplain lakes of the Lower Amazon, as well as relating the Catch per Unit of Effort with anomalies of some of the Amazon River, atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean system variables, determining the influence of the environment on the Amazonian fishery resources. Finfish landings data from the towns and villages of the Lower Amazon for the fisheries of three sites (Óbidos, Santarém and Monte Alegre), were obtained for the period between January 1993 and December 2004. Analysis of variance, detrended correspondence analysis, redundancy analysis and multiple regression techniques were used for the statistical analysis of the distinct time series. Fisheries production in the Lower Amazon presents differences between the Amazon River and the floodplain lakes. Production in the Amazon River is approximately half of the one of the floodplain lakes. This variability occurs both along the Lower Amazon River region (longitudinal gradient) and laterally (latitudinal gradient) for every fishing ground studied here. The distinct environmental variables alone or in association act differently on the fishery stocks and the success of catches in each fishery group studied here. Important variables are the flooding events; the soil the sea surface temperatures; the humidity; the wind and the occurence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Fishery productivity presents a large difference in quantity and distribution patterns between the river and floodplain lakes. This variability occurs in the region of the Lower Amazon as well as laterally for each fishery group studied, being dependent on the ecological characteristics and life strategies of each fish group considered here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands contain large amount of carbon stock that is vulnerable to release into the atmosphere. Mostly because of human impact, the peatlands at Zoige Wetlands face severe degradation, and the groundwater table is now lower than before, which has increased the population of the plateau zokor, a burrowing rodent. However, the impact of these changes on ecosystem carbon flows has not been studied. To investigate how the plateau zokor and the groundwater level alter the ecosystem respiration of the Zoige peatlands, we sampled the CO2 flux of hummocks shaped by the zokors and compared it with the CO2 flux of undisturbed sites with different groundwater table levels. The soil organic carbon (SOC), soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature at 5 cm (T5) were measured. SOC showed no significant difference among the four sampling sites and did not correlate with the CO2 flux, while SWC was found to partly determine the CO2 flux. A linear equation could adequately describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of the ecosystem respiration and the soil temperature. It is demonstrated that descending groundwater table might accelerate ecosystem respiration and the CO2 flux from hummocks was higher than the CO2 flux from the control site in the non-growing season. With rising temperature, the CO2 flux from the control site accelerated faster than that from the hummocks. Our results show that ecosystem respiration was significantly lower from hummocks than at the control site in the growing season. The results on the impact of zokors on greenhouse gas emissions presented in this paper provide a useful reference to help properly manage not only this, but other litter-burrowing mammals at peatland sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including the management and preservation of species and the ecosystem, a new approach in freshwater fish conservation and the life trajectory of a jaguar.

Climate change is affecting biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide, and the lowland tropics are of special concern because organisms living in this region experience temperatures that are close to their upper thermal limits. However, it remains unclear how and whether tropical lowland species will be able to cope with the predicted pace of climate warming. Additionally, there is growing interest in examining how quickly thermal physiological traits have evolved across taxa, and whether thermal physiological traits are evolutionarily conserved or labile. We measured critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and minimum (CTmin) in 56 species of lowland Amazonian frogs to determine the extent of phylogenetic conservatism in tolerance to heat and cold, and to predict species’ vulnerability to climate change. The species we studied live in sympatry and represent ~65% of the known alpha diversity at our study site. Given that critical thermal limits may have evolved differently in response to different temperature constraints, we tested whether CTmax and CTmin exhibit different rates of evolutionary change. Measuring both critical thermal traits allowed us to estimate species’ thermal breadth and infer their potential to respond to abrupt changes in temperature (warming and cooling). Additionally, we assessed the contribution of life history traits and found that both critical thermal traits were correlated with species’ body size and microhabitat use. Specifically, small direct-developing frogs in the Strabomantidae family appear to be at highest risk of thermal stress while tree frogs (Hylidae) and narrow mouthed frogs (Microhylidae) tolerate higher temperatures. While CTmax and CTmin had considerable variation within and among families, both critical thermal traits exhibited similar rates of evolutionary change. Our results suggest that 4% of lowland rainforest frogs assessed will experience temperatures exceeding their CTmax, 25% might be moderately affected and 70% are unlikely to experience pronounced heat stress under a hypothetical 3°C temperature increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria—Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960–1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041–2060) and 2070s (2061–2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47–70% and 10–14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041–2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041–2080; 91–96% and 97–99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67–71% and 72–75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avian cavity nesters (ACN) are viable indicators of forest structure, composition, and diversity. Utilizing these species responses in multi-disciplinary climate-avian-forest modeling can improve climate adaptive management. We propose a framework for integrating and evaluating climate-avian-forest models by linking two ACN niche models with a forest landscape model (FLM), LANDIS-II. The framework facilitates the selection of available ACN models for integration, evaluation of model transferability, and evaluation of successful integration of ACN models with a FLM. We found selecting a model for integration depended on its transferability to the study area (Northern Rockies Ecoregion of Idaho in the United States), which limited the species and model types available for transfer. However, transfer evaluation of the tested ACN models indicated a good fit for the study area. Several niche model variables (canopy cover, snag density, and forest cover type) were not directly informed by the LANDIS-II model, which required secondary modeling (Random Forest) to derive values from the FLM outputs. In instances where the Random Forest models performed with a moderate classification accuracy, the overall effect on niche predictions was negligible. Predictions based on LANDIS-II simulations performed similarly to predictions based on the niche model’s original training input types. This supported the conclusion that the proposed framework is viable for informing avian niche models with FLM simulations. Even models that poorly approximate habitat suitability, due to the inherent constraints of predicting spatial niche use of irruptive species produced informative results by identifying areas of management focus. This is primarily because LANDIS-II estimates spatially explicit variables that were unavailable over large spatial extents from alternative datasets. Thus, without integration, one of the ACN niche models was not applicable to the study area. The framework will be useful for integrating avifauna niche and forest ecosystem models, which can inform management of contemporary and future landscapes under differing management and climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and infectious disease by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are major drivers of amphibian extinctions, but the potential interactions of these two factors are not fully understood. Temperature is known to influence (1) the infectivity, pathogenicity and virulence of Bd; (2) host-parasite dynamics, especially when both hosts and parasites are ectothermic organisms exhibiting thermal sensitivities that may or may not differ; and (3) amphibian vulnerability to extinction depending on their heat tolerance, which may decrease with infection. Thus, in a global warming scenario, with rising temperatures and more frequent and extreme weather events, amphibians infected by Bd could be expected to be more vulnerable if temperatures approach their critical thermal maximum (CTmax). However, it is also possible that predicted high temperatures could clear the Bd infection, thus enhancing amphibian survival. We tested these hypotheses by measuring CTmax values of Bd-infected and Bd-free aquatic tadpoles and terrestrial toadlets/juveniles of the common midwife toad (Alytes obstetricans) and examining whether exposure of A. obstetricans individuals to peak temperatures reaching their CTmax clears them from Bd infection. We show that (1) Bd has a wide thermal tolerance range; (2) Bd is capable of altering the thermal physiology of A. obstetricans, which is stage-dependent, lowering CTmax in tadpoles but not in toadlets; and (3) Bd infection is not cleared after exposure of tadpoles or toadlets to CTmax. Living under climatic change with rising temperatures, the effect of Bd infection might tip the balance and lead some already threatened amphibian communities towards extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003–2012) to a future time period (2030–2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable population estimates are fundamental to the conservation of endangered species. We evaluate here the use of photo-identification (photo-ID) and mark-recapture techniques for estimating the population size of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal (Phoca hispida saimensis). Photo-ID data based on the unique pelage patterns of individuals were collected by means of camera traps and boat-based surveys during the molting season in two of the species' main breeding areas, over a period of five years in the Pihlajavesi basin and eight years in the Haukivesi basin. An open model approach provided minimum population estimates for these two basins. The results indicated high survival rates and site fidelity among the adult seals. More accurate estimates can be obtained in the future by increasing the surveying effort both spatially and temporally. The method presented here proved effective for evaluating population size objectively, whereas the results of the current snow lair censuses are dependent on varying winter conditions, for instance. We therefore suggest that a photo-ID-based non-invasive mark-recapture method should be used for estimating Saimaa ringed seal abundances in order to ensure reliable, transparent population monitoring under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since past century, vector-borne diseases have been a major public health concern in several states of Mexico. However, Mexico City continues to be free of endemic mosquito-borne viral diseases. The city is the most important politic and economic state of Mexico and one of the most important city of Latin America. Its subtropical highland climate and high elevation (2240 masl) had historically made the occurrence of Aedes species unlikely. However, the presence of other potential disease vectors (Culex spp, Culiseta spp), and the current intermittent introductions of Aedes aegypti, have revealed that control programs must adopt routine vector surveillance in the city. In this study, we provide an updated species list from a five-years of vector surveillance performed in Mexico City. A total of 18,553 mosquito larvae were collected. Twenty-two species from genus Culex, Aedes, Culiseta, Anopheles, Lutzia and Uranotaenia were observed. Nine new mosquito records for the city were found. Ae. albopictus was recorded for the first time in Mexico City. Interestingly, a new record, Ae. epactius was the most frequent species reported. Cx. pipiens quinquefasciatus exhibited the highest number of individuals collected. We detected six areas which harbor the highest mosquito species records in the city. Cemeteries included 68.9% of our collection sites. Temporarily ponds showed the highest species diversity. We detected an increasing presence of Ae. aegypti, which was detected for three consecutive years (2015–2017), predominantly in the warmer microclimates of the city. We found a possible correlation between increasing temperature and Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus expanding range. This study provides a starting point for developing strategies related to environmental management for mosquito control. The promotion of mosquito control practices through community participation, mass media and education programmes in schools should be introduced in the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using end-to-end models for ecosystem-based management requires knowledge of the structure, uncertainty and sensitivity of the model. The Norwegian and Barents Seas (NoBa) Atlantis model was implemented for use in ‘what if’ scenarios, combining fisheries management strategies with the influences of climate change and climate variability. Before being used for this purpose, we wanted to evaluate and identify sensitive parameters and whether the species position in the foodweb influenced their sensitivity to parameter perturbation. Perturbing recruitment, mortality, prey consumption and growth by +/- 25% for nine biomass-dominating key species in the Barents Sea, while keeping the physical climate constant, proved the growth rate to be the most sensitive parameter in the model. Their trophic position in the ecosystem (lower trophic level, mid trophic level, top predators) influenced their responses to the perturbations. Top-predators, being generalists, responded mostly to perturbations on their individual life-history parameters. Mid-level species were the most vulnerable to perturbations, not only to their own individual life-history parameters, but also to perturbations on other trophic levels (higher or lower). Perturbations on the lower trophic levels had by far the strongest impact on the system, resulting in biomass changes for nearly all components in the system. Combined perturbations often resulted in non-additive model responses, including both dampened effects and increased impact of combined perturbations. Identifying sensitive parameters and species in end-to-end models will not only provide insights about the structure and functioning of the ecosystem in the model, but also highlight areas where more information and research would be useful—both for model parameterization, but also for constraining or quantifying model uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf of Mexico is an ecologically and economically important marine ecosystem that is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic pressures. These complex and interacting pressures, together with the dynamic environment of the Gulf, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. The recent adoption of Bayesian networks to ecology allows for the discovery and quantification of complex interactions from data after making only a few assumptions about observations of the system. In this study, we apply Bayesian network models, with different levels of structural complexity and a varying number of hidden variables to account for uncertainty when modeling ecosystem dynamics. From these models, we predict focal ecosystem components within the Gulf of Mexico. The predictive ability of the models varied with their structure. The model that performed best was parameterized through data-driven learning techniques and accounted for multiple ecosystem components’ associations and their interactions with human and natural pressures over time. Then, we altered sea surface temperature in the best performing model to explore the response of different ecosystem components to increased temperature. The magnitude and even direction of predicted responses varied by ecosystem components due to heterogeneity in driving factors and their spatial overlap. Our findings suggest that due to varying components’ sensitivity to drivers, changes in temperature will potentially lead to trade-offs in terms of population productivity. We were able to discover meaningful interactions between ecosystem components and their environment and show how sensitive these relationships are to climate perturbations, which increases our understanding of the potential future response of the system to increasing temperature. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by incorporating multiple interactions and pressures in the model layout, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysing the effect water temperature has on Daphnia magna is essential in anticipating the impact climate change will have on this freshwater zooplanktonic keystone species. While many authors have followed this line of research, few have covered an extensive temperature range or complex temperature change scenarios. Global warming is mostly associated with increased extreme temperature events, such as heat waves, as well as earlier and more intense thermal stratification. Both of these events may directly influence D. magna fitness, especially in those populations performing diel vertical migration (DVM). We analysed the effect water temperatures, ranging from 11 to 29°C, have on the filtration capacity (FC) of D. magna, to anticipate the effects of acclimation, temperature change rate (TCR) and potential reversibility of responses to such conditions. Results show that sudden temperature changes have an immediate negative impact on the FC of D. magna and is more severe at higher temperatures and higher TCRs. However, D. magna individuals have shown themselves to be capable of quasi-acclimating to temperatures ranging from 11 to 25°C in around a week and achieving much higher FCs; albeit never reaching the optimal FC achieved at 20°C. That said, 29°C is lethal for D. magna individuals within approximately five days. Finally, non-optimal temperature acclimated individuals can recover maximal FC within 2–4 days of the optimal long-term acclimation temperature (20°C) being re-established, thus proving temperature responses to be reversible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large number of coastal ecosystems globally are subjected to concurrent hypoxic and acidified conditions that will likely intensify and expand with continued climate change. In temperate regions, the spawning of many important organisms including the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus occurs during the summer months when the severity of coastal hypoxia and acidification is the greatest. While the blue crab earliest larval stage can be exposed to co-occurring hypoxia and acidification observed in many coastal ecosystems, the effects of these concurrent stressors on larval blue crab survival is unknown. This study investigated the individual and combined consequences of low dissolved oxygen (DO) and low pH on blue crab larvae survival through a series of short-term experiments. During 14-day experiments with moderately hypoxic conditions (117–127 μM O2 or 3.74–4.06 mg L-1) and acidified conditions (pH on total scale of 7.16–7.33), low DO and low pH individually and significantly reduced larval survival by 60% and 49%, respectively, with the combination of stressors reducing survival by 87% compared to the control treatment (210–269 μM O2 or 6.72–8.61 mg L-1, 7.91–7.94 DO and pH, respectively). During 4-day experiments with lower DO levels (68–83 μM O2 or 2.18–2.62 mg L-1) and comparable pH levels of 7.29–7.39, low DO individually reduced survival by >90% compared to the control (261–267 μM O2 or 8.35–8.54 mg L-1, 7.92–7.97 DO and pH, respectively), whereas low pH had no effect and there was no interaction between stressors. Over a 4-day period, the DO threshold at which 50% of the larval blue crab population died (LC50) was 121 μM O2 (3.86 mgL-1). In 14-day experiments, the DO and pH effects were additive, yielding survival rates lower than the individual treatments, and significantly correlated with DO and pH concentrations. Collectively, these findings indicate that blue crab sensitivity to both low DO and low pH are acute within the larval stage, depend on the intensity and duration of exposure, and leads to mortality, thereby potentially contributing to the interannual variability and possible regional declines of this fishery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high—very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are one of the major causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. In spite of human aided (anthropogenic) dispersal being the key element in the spread of invasive species, no framework published so far accounts for its peculiar characteristics, such as very rapid dispersal and independence from the existing species distribution. We present a new method for modelling biological invasions using historical spatio-temporal records. This method first discriminates between data points of anthropogenic origin and those originating from natural dispersal, then estimates the natural dispersal kernel. We use the expectation-maximisation algorithm for the first step; we then use Ripley’s K-function as a spatial similarity metric to estimate the dispersal kernel. This is done accounting for habitat suitability and providing estimates of the inference precision. Tests on simulated data show good accuracy and precision for this method, even in the presence of challenging, but realistic, limitations of data in the invasion time series, such as gaps in the survey times and low number of records. We also provide a real case application of our method using the case of Litoria frogs in New Zealand. This method is widely applicable across the field of biological invasions, epidemics and climate change induced range shifts and provides a valuable contribution to the management of such issues. Functions to implement this methodology are made available as the R package Biolinv (). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Riparian habitats have been frequently identified as priority areas for conservation under climate change because they span climatic gradients and have cool, moist microclimates relative to surrounding areas. They are therefore expected to act as dispersal corridors for climate-induced species range shifts and to provide microclimatic refugia from warming. Despite recognition of these values, rigorous methods to identify which riparian areas are most likely to facilitate range shifts and provide refugia are currently lacking. We completed a novel analysis across the Pacific Northwest, USA, that identifies potential riparian corridors featuring characteristics expected to enhance their ability to facilitate range shifts and provide refugia. These features include large temperature gradients, high canopy cover, large relative width, low exposure to solar radiation, and low levels of human modification. These variables were used to calculate a riparian climate-corridor index using a multi-scale approach that incorporates results ranging in scale from local watersheds to the entire Pacific Northwest. Resulting index values for potential riparian corridors in the Pacific Northwest were highest within mountainous areas and lowest within relatively flat, lowland regions. We also calculated index values within ecoregions, to better identify high-value riparian climate corridors within the relatively flat, degraded areas where they may most contribute to climate adaptation. We found that high-value riparian climate-corridors are least protected in flat, lowland areas, suggesting that such corridors should be high priorities for future conservation effort. Our analysis provides critical information on valuable riparian climate-corridors to guide climate adaptation efforts (and riparian management and restoration efforts) in the Pacific Northwest, while offering a novel approach that may be applied to similar efforts in other geographies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability. A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future. We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes and must be protected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerald Basin on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, is home to a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi, first documented in the region in 1889. In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) implemented two Sponge Conservation Areas to protect these sponge grounds from bottom fishing activities. Together, the two conservation areas encompass 259 km2. In order to ascertain the degree to which the sponge grounds remain unprotected, we modelled the presence probability and predicted range distribution of V. pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf using random forest modelling on presence-absence records. With a high degree of accuracy the random forest model predicted the highest probability of occurrence of V. pourtalesi in the inner basins on the central Scotian Shelf, with lower probabilities at the shelf break and in the Fundian and Northeast Channels. Bottom temperature was the most important determinant of its distribution in the model. Although the two DFO Sponge Conservation Areas protect some of the more significant concentrations of V. pourtalesi, much of its predicted distribution remains unprotected (over 99%). Examination of the hydrographic conditions in Emerald Basin revealed that the V. pourtalesi sponge grounds are associated with a warmer and more saline water mass compared to the surrounding shelf. Reconstruction of historical bottom temperature and salinity in Emerald Basin revealed strong multi-decadal variability, with average bottom temperatures varying by 8°C. We show that this species has persisted in the face of this climatic variability, possibly indicating how it will respond to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have focused on the interactive effects of temperature increases due to global warming and nutrient enrichment on phytoplankton communities. Recently, non-temperature effects of climate change (e.g., decreases in wind speed and increases in solar radiation) on large lakes have received increasing attention. To evaluate the relative contributions of both temperature and non-temperature effects on phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic subtropical shallow lake, we analyzed long-term monitoring data from Lake Taihu, China from 1997 to 2016. Results showed that Lake Taihu’s spring phytoplankton biovolume and composition changed dramatically over this time frame, with a change in dominant species. Stepwise multiple linear regression models indicated that spring phytoplankton biovolume was strongly influenced by total phosphorus (TP), light condition, wind speed and total nitrogen (TN) (radj2 = 0.8, p < 0.01). Partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) showed that light condition accounted for the greatest variation of phytoplankton community composition, followed by TP and wind speed, as well as the interactions between TP and wind speed. Our study points to the additional importance of non-temperature effects of climate change on phytoplankton community dynamics in Lake Taihu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Whooping Crane (Grus americana). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a “warming hole” in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges–but not the non-breeding ranges–of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has caused shifts in the phenology and distributions of many species but comparing responses across species is challenged by inconsistencies in the methodology and taxonomic and temporal scope of individual studies. Natural history collections offer a rich source of data for examining phenological shifts for a large number of species. We paired specimen records from Pacific Northwest insect collections to climate data to analyze the responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation over a period of 119 years (1895–2013) during which average annual temperatures have increased in the region. We quantified the effects of late winter/early spring temperatures, averaged annually across the region, on dates of occurrence of adults, taking into account the effects of elevation, latitude, and longitude. We assessed whether species-specific phenological responses varied with adult flight season and larval diet breadth. Collection dates were significantly earlier in warmer years for 36.3% of moth species, and later for 3.7%. Species exhibited an average phenological advance of 1.9 days/°C, but species-specific shifts ranged from an advance of 10.3 days/°C to a delay of 10.6 days/°C. More spring-flying species shifted their phenology than summer- or fall-flying species. These responses did not vary among groups defined by larval diet breadth. The highly variable phenological responses to climate change in Pacific Northwest moths agree with other studies on Lepidoptera and suggest that it will remain difficult to accurately forecast which species and ecological interactions are most likely to be affected by climate change. Our results also underscore the value of natural history collections as windows into long-term ecological trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jellyfish blooms are a significant environmental problem that is increasing and may be influenced by anthropocentric practices such as overfishing, pollution, eutrophication, translocation, climate change, and ocean acidification. Many jellyfish have unknown life cycles leading to these blooms. We describe for the first time, the life cycle of scyphozoan jellyfish Rhizostoma luteum from the planula to the young medusa stages, based on laboratory observations. We also provide a preliminary assessment of temperature related to life stages. Comparisons were made with early life history stages of its sibling species Rhizostoma pulmo and Rhizostoma octopus. The life cycle of R. luteum follows the general pattern of metagenesis of scyphozoans. Scyphistoma culture was maintained in filtered seawater at 17–17.5 °C, salinity 37 and light photoperiod (12:12 h light:dark). Scyphistomae were exposed to an experimental temperature descent for two days to test their survival capacity under severe winter conditions. Only one asexual reproduction mode was observed, which is employed for propagation, consisting of podocyst formation with excystment, subsequent development of scyphistoma, strobilation and liberation of viable ephyra. The development of the ephyra to metaephyra was photodocumented, reaching the metaephyra stage in approximately 21–25 days. Young medusae grow rapidly and maturity was reached after a 3-month post-liberation period with a mean bell diameter of 13.27 ± 2.26 cm and wet weight of 181.53 ± 53 g. The life cycle of R. luteum resembles that of its congeners, with the distinction that it has the unique features of being a brooding species (internal fertilisation with subsequent release of planulae) and under the conditions tested, the predominantly strobilation type observed was monodisc, and not polydisc as with the other two species in the genus Rhizostoma. As R. luteum shows sufficient requisite to form blooms if environmental circumstances change, it is important to understand its life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecosystems can be modified and shaped by irregular interannual variations in oceanic current patterns and temperatures, such as El Niño and La Niña. These large scale oceanic events have also been shown to influence environmental stressors such as invasive marine species (IMS). Our study indicates that there is a causative link between these climatic events, and atypical detections of native and IMS. Significant La Niña events between 1970 and 2014 were associated with sightings of tropical crab species in temperate waters following a lag period of 18–24 months from the onset of the event. We identified a total of 72 records of six tropical portunid crabs species (from both Charybdis and Scylla) in temperate waters of south-western Australia following these La Niña events, based on reports in published scientific literature, grey literature and museum records, as well as citizen science networks such as FishWatch and PestWatch apps. We suggest that La Niña conditions facilitated transportation and temporary establishment of crab larvae from their native tropical habitat to temperate regions. As the strength of La Niña events is likely to increase into the future due to the escalating effects of climate change, it is likely that there will be a growth in associated atypical establishment events of IMS. Consequently, biosecurity managers will need to reprioritise resources in order to accommodate the potential impacts of these large scale oceanic events as part of their surveillance programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human-mediated introduction of marine non-indigenous species is a centuries- if not millennia-old phenomenon, but was only recently acknowledged as a potent driver of change in the sea. We provide a synopsis of key historical milestones for marine bioinvasions, including timelines of (a) discovery and understanding of the invasion process, focusing on transfer mechanisms and outcomes, (b) methodologies used for detection and monitoring, (c) approaches to ecological impacts research, and (d) management and policy responses. Early (until the mid-1900s) marine bioinvasions were given little attention, and in a number of cases actively and routinely facilitated. Beginning in the second half of the 20th century, several conspicuous non-indigenous species outbreaks with strong environmental, economic, and public health impacts raised widespread concerns and initiated shifts in public and scientific perceptions. These high-profile invasions led to policy documents and strategies to reduce the introduction and spread of non-indigenous species, although with significant time lags and limited success and focused on only a subset of transfer mechanisms. Integrated, multi-vector management within an ecosystem-based marine management context is urgently needed to address the complex interactions of natural and human pressures that drive invasions in marine ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic variation is the basis upon which natural selection acts to yield evolutionary change. In a rapidly changing environment, increasing genetic variation should increase evolutionary potential, particularly for small, isolated populations. However, the introduction of new alleles, either through natural or human-mediated processes, may have unpredictable consequences such as outbreeding depression. In this study, we identified a contact zone and limited gene flow between historically separated genetic lineages of American pikas (Ochotona princeps), representing the northern and southern Rocky Mountain subspecies, within Rocky Mountain National Park. The limited spatial extent of gene flow observed may be the result of geographic barriers to dispersal, selection against hybrid individuals, or both. Our fine-scale population genetic analysis suggests gene flow is limited but not completely obstructed by extreme topography such as glacial valleys, as well as streams including the Colorado River. The discovery of two subspecies within this single protected area has implications for monitoring and management, particularly in the light of recent analyses suggesting that the pikas in this park are vulnerable to fragmentation and local extinction under future projected climates. Future research should focus on the fitness consequences of introgression among distinct genetic lineages in this location and elsewhere, as well as within the context of genetic rescue as a conservation and management strategy for a climate sensitive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) is a commercially important species in North American waters, undergoing biological and ecological shifts. These are attributed, in part, to environmental modifications in its habitat and driven by climate change. Investigation of shell growth patterns, trace elements, and isotopic compositions require an examination of growth lines and increments preserved in biogenic carbonates. However, growth pattern analysis of S. solidissima is challenging due to multiple disturbance lines caused by environmental stress, erosion in umbonal shell regions, and constraints related to sample size and preparation techniques. The present study proposes an alternative method for describing chronology. First, we analyzed growth patterns using growth lines within the shell and hinge. To validate the assumption of annual periodicity of growth line formation, we analyzed the oxygen isotope composition of the outer shell layer of two specimens (46°54'20"N; 56°18'58"W). Maximum δ18Oshell values occurred at the exact same location as internal growth lines in both specimens, confirming that they are formed annually and that growth ceases during winter. Next, we used growth increment width data to build a standardized growth index (SGI) time-series (25-year chronology) for each of the three parts of the shell. Highly significant correlations were found between the three SGI chronologies (p < 0.001; 0.55 < τ < 0.68) of all specimens. Thus, ligament growth lines provide a new method of determining ontogenetic age and growth rate in S. solidissima. In a biogeographic approach, the shell growth performance of S. solidissima in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon was compared to those in other populations along its distribution range in order to place this population in a temporal and regional context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate change affects host-parasite systems and predicting the consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human health has emerged as an important task for science and society. Some basic insight into this complex problem can be gained by comparing the thermal physiology of interacting host and parasite species. In this study, we compared upper thermal tolerance among three component species in a natural host-parasitoid-hyperparasitoid system from Virginia, USA. To assess the ecological relevance of our results, we also examined a record of maximum daily air temperatures collected near the study site in the last 124 years. We found that the caterpillar host Manduca sexta had a critical thermal maximum (CTmax) about 4°C higher than the parasitic wasp, Cotesia congregata, and the hyperparasitic wasp, Conura sp., had a CTmax about 6°C higher than its host, C. congregata. We also found significant differences in CTmax among instars and between parasitized and non-parasitized M. sexta. The highest maximum daily air temperature recorded near the study in the last 124 years was 42°C, which equals the average CTmax of one species (C. congregata) but is several degrees lower than the average CTmax of the other two species (M. sexta, Conura sp.) in this study. Our results combined with other studies suggest that significant differences in thermal performance within and among interacting host and parasite species are common in nature and that climate change may be largely disruptive to these systems with responses that are highly variable and complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The preference-performance hypothesis states that ovipositing phytophagous insects will select host plants that are well-suited for their offspring and avoid host plants that do not support offspring performance (survival, development and fitness). The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), a native insect herbivore in western North America, can successfully attack and reproduce in most species of Pinus throughout its native range. However, mountain pine beetles avoid attacking Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva), despite recent climate-driven increases in mountain pine beetle populations at the high elevations where Great Basin bristlecone pine grows. Low preference for a potential host plant species may not persist if the plant supports favorable insect offspring performance, and Great Basin bristlecone pine suitability for mountain pine beetle offspring performance is unclear. We infested cut bolts of Great Basin bristlecone pine and two susceptible host tree species, limber (P. flexilis) and lodgepole (P. contorta) pines with adult mountain pine beetles and compared offspring performance. To investigate the potential for variation in offspring performance among mountain pine beetles from different areas, we tested beetles from geographically-separated populations within and outside the current range of Great Basin bristlecone pine. Although mountain pine beetles constructed galleries and laid viable eggs in all three tree species, extremely few offspring emerged from Great Basin bristlecone pine, regardless of the beetle population. Our observed low offspring performance in Great Basin bristlecone pine corresponds with previously documented low mountain pine beetle attack preference. A low preference-low performance relationship suggests that Great Basin bristlecone pine resistance to mountain pine beetle is likely to be retained through climate-driven high-elevation mountain pine beetle outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent shifts in the ecological condition of Walden Pond, MA, are of potentially wide interest due to the lake's importance as a cultural, historical, and recreational resource in addition to its scientific value as an indicator of local and global environmental change. Algal microfossils in six sediment cores document changes in hydroclimate and trophic status of the lake during the last 1800 years and extend two previous sediment core records of shorter length. Low percentages of planktonic diatoms in the longest cores (WAL-3, WAL-15) indicate shallowing and/or greater water clarity associated with a relatively arid interval during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, ca. A.D. 1150–1300, Cultural eutrophication of the lake since the A.D. 1920s caused diatoms in the genera Asterionella and Synedra to increase in relative abundance at the expense of Cyclotella, Discostella, and the chrysophyte alga Mallomonas allorgei. Percentages of Asterionella and Synedra have remained fairly stable since A.D. 2000 when a previous sediment core study was conducted, but scaled chrysophytes have become more numerous. These findings suggest that, although mitigation efforts have curtailed anthropogenic nutrient inputs to Walden Pond, the lake has not returned to the pre-impact condition described by Henry David Thoreau and may become increasingly vulnerable to further changes in water quality in a warmer and possibly wetter future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We summarize thermal-biology data of 69 species of Amazonian lizards, including mode of thermoregulation and field-active body temperatures (Tb). We also provide new data on preferred temperatures (Tpref), voluntary and thermal-tolerance ranges, and thermal-performance curves (TPC’s) for 27 species from nine sites in the Brazilian Amazonia. We tested for phylogenetic signal and pairwise correlations among thermal traits. We found that species generally categorized as thermoregulators have the highest mean values for all thermal traits, and broader ranges for Tb, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and optimal (Topt) temperatures. Species generally categorized as thermoconformers have large ranges for Tpref, critical thermal minimum (CTmin), and minimum voluntary (VTmin) temperatures for performance. Despite these differences, our results show that all thermal characteristics overlap between both groups and suggest that Amazonian lizards do not fit into discrete thermoregulatory categories. The traits are all correlated, with the exceptions of (1) Topt, which does not correlate with CTmax, and (2) CTmin, and correlates only with Topt. Weak phylogenetic signals for Tb, Tpref and VTmin indicate that these characters may be shaped by local environmental conditions and influenced by phylogeny. We found that open-habitat species perform well under present environmental conditions, without experiencing detectable thermal stress from high environmental temperatures induced in lab experiments. For forest-dwelling lizards, we expect warming trends in Amazonia to induce thermal stress, as temperatures surpass the thermal tolerances for these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method: We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result: The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change indicators are tools to assess, visualize and communicate the impacts of climate change on species and communities. Indicators that can be applied to different taxa are particularly useful because they allow comparative analysis to identify which kinds of species are being more affected. A general prediction, supported by empirical data, is that the abundance of warm-adapted species should increase over time, relative to the cool-adapted ones within communities, under increasing ambient temperatures. The community temperature index (CTI) is a community weighted mean of species’ temperature preferences and has been used as an indicator to summarize this temporal shift. The CTI has the advantages of being a simple and generalizable indicator; however, a core problem is that temporal trends in the CTI may not only reflect changes in temperature. This is because species’ temperature preferences often covary with other species attributes, and these other attributes may affect species response to other environmental drivers. Here, we propose a novel model-based approach that separates the effects of temperature preference from the effects of other species attributes on species’ abundances and subsequently on the CTI. Using long-term population data of breeding birds in Denmark and demersal marine fish in the southeastern North Sea, we find differences in CTI trends with the original approach and our model-based approach, which may affect interpretation of climate change impacts. We suggest that our method can be used to test the robustness of CTI trends to the possible effects of other drivers of change, apart from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]