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Effective winter road maintenance relies on precise road friction estimation. Machine learning (ML) models have shown significant promise in this; however, their inherent complexity makes understanding their inner workings challenging. This paper addresses this issue by conducting a comparative analysis of road friction estimation models using four ML methods, including regression tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and support vector regression (SVR). We then employ the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainable artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance model interpretability. Our analysis on an Alberta dataset reveals that the XGBoost model performs best with an accuracy of 91.39%. The SHAP analysis illustrates the logical relationships between predictor features and friction within all three tree-based models, but it also uncovers inconsistencies within the SVR model, potentially attributed to insufficient feature interactions. Thus, this paper not only showcase the role of explainable AI in improving the ML interpretability of models for road friction estimation, but also provides practical insights that could improve winter road maintenance decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have transformed the landscape of energy exploration, including hydrocarbon, CO2 storage, and hydrogen. However, building competent ML models for reservoir characterization necessitates specific in-depth knowledge in order to fine-tune the models and achieve the best predictions, limiting the accessibility of machine learning in geosciences. To mitigate this issue, we implemented the recently emerged automated machine learning (AutoML) approach to perform an algorithm search for conducting an unconventional reservoir characterization with a more optimized and accessible workflow than traditional ML approaches. In this study, over 1000 wells from Alberta's Athabasca Oil Sands were analyzed to predict various key reservoir properties such as lithofacies, porosity, volume of shale, and bitumen mass percentage. Our proposed workflow consists of two stages of AutoML predictions, including (1) the first stage focuses on predicting the volume of shale and porosity by using conventional well log data, and (2) the second stage combines the predicted outputs with well log data to predict the lithofacies and bitumen percentage. The findings show that out of the ten different models tested for predicting the porosity (78% in accuracy), the volume of shale (80.5%), bitumen percentage (67.3%), and lithofacies classification (98%), distributed random forest, and gradient boosting machine emerged as the best models. When compared to the manually fine-tuned conventional machine learning algorithms, the AutoML-based algorithms provide a notable improvement on reservoir property predictions, with higher weighted average f1-scores of up to 15–20% in the classification problem and 5–10% in the adjusted-R2 score for the regression problems in the blind test dataset, and it is achieved only after ~ 400 s of training and testing processes. In addition, from the feature ranking extraction technique, there is a good agreement with domain experts regarding the most significant input parameters in each prediction. Therefore, it is evidence that the AutoML workflow has proven powerful in performing advanced petrophysical analysis and reservoir characterization with minimal time and human intervention, allowing more accessibility to domain experts while maintaining the model's explainability. Integration of AutoML and subject matter experts could advance artificial intelligence technology implementation in optimizing data-driven energy geosciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catchments located in cold weather regions are highly influenced by the natural seasonality that dictates all hydrological processes. This represents a challenge in the development of river flow forecasting models, which often require complex software that use multiple explanatory variables and a large amount of data to forecast such seasonality. The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada, receives no or very little rainfall and snowmelt during the winter and an abundant rainfall–runoff and snowmelt during the spring/summer. Using the ARB as a case study, this paper proposes a novel simplistic method for short-term (i.e., 6 days) river flow forecasting in cold regions and compares existing hydrological modelling techniques to demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a good level of accuracy using simple modelling. In particular, the performance of a regression model (RM), base difference model (BDM), and the newly developed flow difference model (FDM) were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the FDM could accurately forecast river flow (ENS = 0.95) using limited data inputs and calibration parameters. Moreover, the newly proposed FDM had similar performance to artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, demonstrating the capability of simplistic methods to forecast river flow while bypassing the fundamental processes that govern the natural annual river cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildland fire occurrence prediction (FOP) modelling supports fire management decisions, such as suppression resource pre-positioning and the routeing of detection patrols. Common empirical modelling methods for FOP include both model-based (statistical modelling) and algorithmic-based (machine learning) approaches. However, it was recently shown that many machine learning models in FOP literature are not suitable for fire management operations because of overprediction if not properly calibrated to output true probabilities. We present methods for properly calibrating statistical and machine learning models for fine-scale, spatially explicit daily FOP followed by a case-study comparison of human-caused FOP modelling in the Lac La Biche region of Alberta, Canada, using data from 1996 to 2016. Calibrated bagged classification trees, random forests, neural networks, logistic regression models and logistic generalised additive models (GAMs) are compared in order to assess the pros and cons of these approaches when properly calibrated. Results suggest that logistic GAMs can have similar performance to machine learning models for FOP. Hence, we advocate that the pros and cons of different modelling approaches should be discussed with fire management practitioners when determining which models to use operationally because statistical methods are commonly viewed as more interpretable than machine learning methods. Techniques new to wildland fire occurrence prediction (FOP) were used to create well-calibrated bagged classification trees, random forests and neural networks. These models were used for spatially explicit, human-caused daily FOP in the Lac La Biche region of Alberta, Canada, and compared with calibrated logistic regression and calibrated logistic generalised additive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]