Search

This paper provides an introduction to the special issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London of papers from the 2022 Royal Society meeting on 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. It provides the background and rationale for the meeting, briefly summarizes prior progress on observing the Atlantic overturning circulation and draws out the new challenges that papers presented at the meeting raise, so pointing the way forward for future research. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic time‐mean heat transport is northward at all latitudes and exhibits strong multidecadal variability between about 30°N and 55°N. Atlantic heat transport variability influences many aspects of the climate system, including regional surface temperatures, subpolar heat content, Arctic sea‐ice concentration and tropical precipitation patterns. Atlantic heat transport and heat transport variability are commonly partitioned into two components: the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the heat transport by the gyres. In this paper we compare four different methods for performing this partition, and we apply these methods to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble at 34°N, 26°N and 5°S. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The four methods all give significantly different estimates for the proportion of the time‐mean heat transport performed by AMOC. One of these methods is a new physically‐motivated method based on the pathway of the northward‐flowing part of AMOC. This paper presents a preliminary version of our method that works only when the AMOC follows the western boundary of the basin. All the methods agree that at 26°N, 80%–100% of heat transport variability at 2–10 years timescales is performed by AMOC, but there is more disagreement between methods in attributing multidecadal variability, with some methods showing a compensation between the AMOC and gyre heat transport variability. Plain Language Summary: Scientists often want to quantify how much heat is transported by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (sometimes called the "Conveyor Belt" circulation) and how much heat is transported by the ocean's gyres. This paper compares some different methods for estimating the heat transport by the overturning circulation and by the gyres, including a new method that has not been used before. There are significant differences in the results of each method, and here we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The heat transport at about 30°N has a lot of variability: all the methods agree that short‐timescale variability (2–10 years timescale) is due to the overturning circulation. All methods agree that more than half of the time‐mean heat transport across 30°N is performed by the overturning, but the exact proportion varies from 65% to 120% depending on the method we use. Key Points: We compare four diagnostics for Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport that partition the flow into mass‐conserving gyre and overturning componentsA new physically‐motivated method is compared with the standard method that relies on zonally averaging the temperature and velocity fieldsAll four methods yield different estimates of the fraction of time‐mean heat transport performed by AMOC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From ten years of observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26° N (MOC, 2004-2014), we revisit the question of flow compensation between components of the circulation. Contrasting with early results from the observations, transport variations of the Florida Current (FC) and upper mid-ocean transports (UMO, top 1000 m east of the Bahamas) are now found to compensate on sub-annual timescales. A deep baroclinic response to wind-forcing (Ekman transport) is also found in the lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW, 3000-5000 m) transport. The observed compensation between the FC and UMO transports is associated with horizontal circulation and means that their individual variability does not project onto the MOC. In contrast, covariability between Ekman and the LNADW transports does contribute to overturning. On longer timescales, the southward UMO transport has continued to strengthen, resulting in a continued decline of the MOC. Most of this interannual variability of the MOC can be traced to changes in isopycnal displacements on the western boundary, within the top 1000 m and below 2000 m. Substantial trends are observed in isopycnal displacements in the deep ocean, underscoring the importance of deep boundary measurements to capture the variability of the Atlantic MOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article, titled "Editorial: Impact of solar activities on weather and climate," explores the relationship between solar activities and weather and climate patterns on Earth. It discusses various ways in which solar activities can affect atmospheric conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclones, and ocean circulation. The article includes several research papers that investigate the link between solar activity and surface climate variability, TC genesis frequency, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. It also examines the influence of solar forcing on the South Asian jet, high-altitude clouds, and energy transmission in the climate system. The article acknowledges the challenges and questions in studying the impact of the Sun on Earth's atmosphere and climate. [Extracted from the article]

The freshwater discharge from melting ice sheets in the deglaciation or glaciation is prone to anomalies in ocean-atmosphere transport between different latitudes, which can lead to a series of abrupt millennial-scale climate events, either obvious or not, such as the Younger Dryas (YD) events and YD-like events. Marine Isotope Stage 11c (MIS 11c) serves as one of the best references for the current Holocene, and the studies of possible YD-like events and their triggering mechanisms during Holocene are conducive to the understanding of the occurrence pattern of extreme climate events. In this paper, the results of the study on the J33 δ18O sequence records of stalagmites in Jinfo Cave, Chongqing, are shown: (1) Stalagmites in the Asian monsoon climate zone reveal a millennial-scale weak monsoon event that occurred around 410 ka BP prior to the Glacial Maximum of MIS 11 interglacial period. (2) Both the 410 ka weak monsoon event and the YD event occurred during the gradual strengthening of the monsoon and ascending branch of summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere prior to the Glacial Maximum of interglacial period. This was also a time when Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) disturbance occurred. The duration, internal structure, and pattern of the events were similar, with differences in the change magnitude and ice volume conditions. (3) The weak monsoon event that occurred in 410 ka BP was primarily influenced by the combined effects of insolation and AMOC. This event was characterized by a sustained warming process that accelerated the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, leading to the destabilization of this ice sheet. The continuous flowing of freshwater into the North Atlantic resulted in a short-lived AMOC oscillation. The weakening of the AMOC resulted in a cold anomaly over the North Atlantic. As a result of atmospheric telecorrelation, the weaker AMOC led to a weaker Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of ocean measurement technologies can improve monitoring of the global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and Heat Storage Rate (HSR) that serve as early-warning indices for climate-critical circulation processes such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and provide real-time OHC assessments for tropical cyclone forecast models. This paper examines the potential of remotely measuring ocean temperature profiles using a simulated Brillouin lidar for calculating ocean HSR. A series of data analysis ('Nature') and Observational Systems Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were carried out using 26 years (1992–2017) of daily mean temperature and salinity outputs from the ECCOv4r4 ocean circulation model. The focus of this study is to compare various OSSEs carried out to measure the HSR using a simulated Brillouin lidar against the HSR calculated from the ECCOv4r4 model results. Brillouin lidar simulations are used to predict the probability of detecting a return lidar signal under varying sampling strategies. Correlations were calculated for the difference between sampling strategies. These comparisons ignore the measurement errors inherent in a Brillouin lidar. Brillouin lidar technology and instruments are known to contain numerous, instrument-dependent errors and remain an engineering challenge. A significant decrease in the ability to measuring global ocean HSRs is a consequence of measuring ocean temperature from nadir-pointing instruments that can only take measurements along-track. Other sources of errors include the inability to fully profile ocean regions with deep mixed layers, such as the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, and ocean regions with high light attenuation levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 2010s, a large freshening event similar to past Great Salinity Anomalies occurred in the Iceland Basin that has since propagated into the Irminger Sea. The source waters of this fresh anomaly were hypothesized to have come from an eastward diversion of the Labrador Current, a finding that has since been supported by recent modeling studies. In this study, we investigate the pathways of the freshwater anomaly using a purely observational approach: particle tracking using satellite altimetry-derived surface velocity fields. Particle trajectories originating in the Labrador Current and integrated forward in time entered the Iceland Basin during the freshening event at nearly twice the frequency observed prior to 2009, suggesting an increased presence of Labrador Current-origin water in the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough during the freshening. We observe a distinct regime change in 2009, similar to the timing found in the previous modeling papers. These spatial shifts were accompanied by faster transit times along the pathways which led to along-stream convergence and more particles arriving to the eastern subpolar gyre. These findings support the hypothesis that a diversion of relatively fresh Labrador Current waters eastward from the Grand Banks can explain the unprecedented freshening in the Iceland Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestward‐propagating North Brazil Current (NBC) Rings are often destroyed upon reaching the Caribbean islands, carrying South Atlantic waters into the North Atlantic gyre and connecting the two branches of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Recent observations of NBC rings reported surface and subsurface cores separated by strong stratification. As independent structures, the subsurface eddies often appeared below—even if not aligned with—the surface rings. Motivated by these findings, this paper investigates the occurrence and consequences of vertical coupling between surface and subsurface NBC rings by applying a simplified theoretical model to a realistic numerical simulation. Eddy tracking in this complex simulation reveals around 1,600 instantaneous observations where eddies overlap. At each observation, we assess the eddies' vertical interaction with a 21 /2‐layer quasi‐geostrophic framework. This interaction boils down to either coupling between the layers or a vertical splitting of the system, depending on eddy strength versus background shear. The effects of coupling include long‐lived eddies that can travel longer distances. These effects are particularly important for the lower layer, where differences between coupled and non‐coupled eddies are striking: about 40% of eddies with coupling travel 500 km, with ∼10% carrying South Atlantic Water up to the Caribbean sea. Without coupling, eddies propagate less than 150 km. During coupling, lower‐layer eddies could be driven by their surface counterparts to move offshore and bypass a topographic choke point, thus leaving the NBC retroflection region. Although still speculative, this idea explains the link between coupling and the increase in both lifetime and distance traveled for these eddies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on modern observations, historical proxy data, and climate model simulations, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of the past, present and future evolution characteristics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as its impact on the surface air temperature (SAT) at regional and hemispherical scales. The reconstruction results based on the proxy data indicate that the AMOC has weakened since the late 19th century and experienced overall weakening throughout the 20th century with low confidence. Direct observations show that the AMOC weakened during 2004–2016, but it is not possible to distinguish between its decadal variability and long-term trend. Climate models predict that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, AMOC will weaken in the future, but there will not be a sudden collapse before 2100. For the thermodynamic effects of AMOC, the increased surface heat flux release and meridional heat transport (MHT) over the North Atlantic associated with the strong AMOC cause an increase in the hemispherical SAT. At the millennial scale, climate cooling (warming) periods correspond to a weakened (strengthened) AMOC. The enhanced MHT of a strong AMOC can affect Arctic warming and thus influence regional SAT anomalies and SAT extremes through mutual feedback between Arctic sea ice and AMOC. In terms of dynamic effects, a strong AMOC modulates the Rossby wave trains originating from the North Atlantic and spreading across mid-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and causes an increase in the variabilities in the circulation anomalies over the Ural and Siberian regions. Ultimately, a strong AMOC significantly affects the frequencies of extreme cold and warm events in the mid-to-high latitude regions over Eurasia. In addition, AMOC can also influence regional and global SAT anomalies through its dynamic adjustment of planetary-scale circulation. Decadal variation in AMOC is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During positive phases of AMO and AMOC, enhanced surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic lead to abnormal warming in the Northern Hemisphere, while during negative phases, the reverse case occurs. Under high emission scenarios in the future, the possibility of AMOC collapse increases due to freshwater forcing. However, most advanced climate models underestimate the strength of the AMOC and its impact on the AMO and relevant climate change, which presents a major challenge for future understanding and prediction of the AMOC and its climate effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO2 fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our findings show the geometry of mixing structures in the upper and deep ocean layers by means of Lagrangian Coherent Structures. This tool identifies among others, zones linked to vertical transport and characterizes vertical transport time scales. We focus the study in two regions. The first one is the Flemish Cap region, a zone of interaction between the major AMOC components, where our analysis identifies a domain of deep waters that ascend very rapidly to the ocean surface. The second one is the Irminger Sea, where our analysis confirms the existence of a downwelling zone, and reveals a previously unreported upwelling connection between very deep waters and the ocean surface. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a complex oceanic convective system involved in the tridimensional distribution of heat, carbon or nutrients. The horizontal transport across the AMOC is well studied, however, there are not many studies exploring mixing and transport processes across the vertical water column, that is, from the surface to the deep ocean and viceversa. To fully understand this 3D system, this paper follows a methodology that links apparently unrelated elements such as mixing and geometry. This approach is very promising to better characterize transport across the vertical column of major ocean currents and determining their impact on the global climate system. Key Points: Lagrangian Coherent Structures reveal the complex mixing geometry of 3D circulating watersSupported by this tool we are able to highlight upwelling and downwelling routes across the Atlantic Meridional Overturning CirculationThis approach seems promising to determine the role of vertical mixing on major ocean currents in the Earth's climate system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Atlantic time‐mean heat transport is northward at all latitudes and exhibits strong multidecadal variability between about 30°N and 55°N. Atlantic heat transport variability influences many aspects of the climate system, including regional surface temperatures, subpolar heat content, Arctic sea‐ice concentration and tropical precipitation patterns. Atlantic heat transport and heat transport variability are commonly partitioned into two components: the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the heat transport by the gyres. In this paper we compare four different methods for performing this partition, and we apply these methods to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble at 34°N, 26°N and 5°S. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The four methods all give significantly different estimates for the proportion of the time‐mean heat transport performed by AMOC. One of these methods is a new physically‐motivated method based on the pathway of the northward‐flowing part of AMOC. This paper presents a preliminary version of our method that works only when the AMOC follows the western boundary of the basin. All the methods agree that at 26°N, 80%–100% of heat transport variability at 2–10 years timescales is performed by AMOC, but there is more disagreement between methods in attributing multidecadal variability, with some methods showing a compensation between the AMOC and gyre heat transport variability.

This study explores the impact of rising CO2 levels on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation's (AMOC) interdecadal variability within the context of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) background climate. Under heightened CO2 concentrations, the AMOC interdecadal variability intensifies dramatically, which is very different from the future warming case that shows a weakening of AMOC interdecadal variability in response to increased CO2 concentration. This unexpected phenomenon primarily results from the extensive retreat of sea ice, which exposes a larger portion of the ocean surface to efficiently feel the heat flux fluctuations from atmospheric processes. These findings underscore the significance of background climate conditions in shaping AMOC responses to increased CO2 and emphasize the necessity of considering these nuances to develop a more accurate understanding of AMOC dynamics in an evolving climate. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth system, and its interdecadal variability is predicted to be significantly weakened under future warming scenarios. In this paper, we analyze the response of AMOC interdecadal variability to rising CO2 levels under the background of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and find that the AMOC interdecadal variability is intensified under increased CO2, which is totally different from its response at the background of modern climate. Analyses suggest that this unexpected result is mainly caused by dramatic sea ice retreat, which exposes much seawater to efficiently receive large fluctuations of heat flux from atmospheric forcing. The findings reveal that the response of AMOC to increased CO2 and relevant dominant mechanism differs significantly under different climate conditions. Key Points: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) interdecadal variability is intensified with increased CO2 under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) background climate, diverging from that in future warmingThe intensified AMOC variability cannot be explained by ocean dynamics as shown in future warming casesLarge sea ice retreat drives the intensification of AMOC interdecadal variability under the LGM warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the relationship between interannual sea level fluctuations and the system of currents in the area of the North Atlantic Anticyclonic Water Gyre according to satellite altimetry (1993–2019). The initial data was the base of monthly average data on the sea level of the Copernicus reanalysis archive GLOBAL_REANALYSIS_PHY_001_030. A clearly expressed relationship between the annual discharges of the Florida Current and the level gradient in the section of 25° latitude between 80°–78° W was revealed (r = 0.79). Calculation of interannual sea-level changes on the latitudinal section 26° for its individual sections and across the entire North Atlantic within 80°–15° W, which is a reference in the monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), was performed. Annual estimates of level gradient Δh and its average values hav between the extreme points of the sections were considered. A high positive correlation between Δh and hav was revealed for sections 70°–25° W (r = 0.81) and 80°–15° W (r = 0.71), as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation with Δh and hav on these sections. It is shown that, despite the sharp weakening of the AMOC until 2010, later, its relative power recovers almost to the average value. Obviously, the weakening of AMOC until 2010 is only the negative phase of its longer fluctuations. Statistical parametrization of average annual values of water transport at a latitude of 26° N was performed to the north and south (AMOC and QUMO) according to sea-level data at this latitude. Regression equations are obtained, which, according to the Δh and hav data, quite accurately (77–92%) describe the dispersion of the AMOC and QUMO time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a significant role in the global climate system, and its behavior in a warming climate is a matter of significant concern. The AMOC is thought to be driven largely by ocean heat loss in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, but recent research increasingly emphasizes the importance of the Arctic Mediterranean for the AMOC. In turn, the AMOC may influence the Arctic heat budget through its impact on poleward heat transport. Hence, understanding the processes that link the AMOC and the Arctic is critical for our ability to project how both may evolve in a warming climate. In this paper we review some of the recent research that is shaping our thinking about the AMOC and its two-way interactions with the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has considerable impacts on the global climate system. Past studies have shown that changes in the South Atlantic control the stability of the AMOC and drive an important part of its variability. That is why significant resources have been invested in a South (S)AMOC observing system. In January 2017, the RV Maria S. Merian conducted the first GO-SHIP hydrographic transect along the SAMOC-Basin Wide Array (SAMBA) line at 34.5°S in the South Atlantic. This paper presents estimates of meridional volume, freshwater (MFT), and heat (MHT) transports through the line using the slow varying geostrophic density field and direct velocity observations. An upper and an abyssal overturning cell are identified with a strength of 15.64 ± 1.39 Sv and 2.4 ± 1.6 Sv, respectively. The net northward MHT is 0.27 ± 0.10 PW, increasing by 0.12 PW when we remove the observed mesoscale eddies with a climatology derived from the Argo floats data set. We attribute this change to an anomalous predominance of cold core eddies during the cruise period. The highest velocities are observed in the western boundary, within the Brazil and the Deep Western Boundary currents. These currents appear as a continuous deep jet located 150 km off the slope squeezed between two cyclonic eddies. The zonal changes in water masses properties and velocity denote the imprint of exchange pathways with both the Southern and the Indian oceans. Plain Language Summary The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a crucial element of the global ocean circulation and climate. It connects the Southern Ocean to the northern North Atlantic, and is responsible for the interhemispheric northward transport of heat and freshwater. The South Atlantic is a crossroad for water masses from the Southern, the Indian and the North Atlantic oceans. This paper analyzes the first full-ocean-depth trans-basin measurements of the southernmost enclosed section of the Atlantic between South Africa and Brazil along 34.5°S. Our results confirm a northward transport of heat at this latitude. We also found a complex water mass structure and dynamics, characterized by intense boundary currents and mesoscale eddies. It is the sum of these elements that is not only crucial for the Atlantic but also for the global ocean circulation and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I review the history of ideas that have led to the establishment of the RAPID monitoring system for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5° N. This history is closely connected to important events in my personal career. Starting from early and largely unsuccessful attempts at formulating a dynamically consistent force balance for the AMOC, I made theoretical progress by separately predicting the density at the eastern and western boundaries and by invoking exact geostrophic balance throughout, including the western boundary current. A remarkable confluence of individuals and ideas then enabled the establishment of the RAPID array, at its core based on monitoring boundary densities and on geostrophy. The RAPID results, such as the surprisingly large sub-seasonal variability, have encouraged AMOC monitoring approaches at other latitudes. I finish by pointing at two theoretical concepts—first, acknowledging the difference between convective mixing and sinking and, second, considering the advective rather than wave propagation of density perturbations in the deep western boundary current—that, together with continued observations and newly available global coupled simulations at very high resolution, should substantially improve our understanding of the causes of AMOC variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the link between the Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation rate and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation within the Labrador Sea. LSW is formed in the Labrador Sea through deep wintertime ocean convection and is then carried out of the basin by, among other currents, the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) that flows southward along the east coast of Canada. We used an eddy‐permitting simulation (at 1/12°, horizontal resolution) with an Arctic and Northern Hemisphere Atlantic configuration of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) model that covers the period from 2002 to 2017. In this study, the formation rate of LSW is estimated using an instantaneous kinematic subduction approach by analyzing the vertical transport of a water mass through the base of the mixed layer. We computed the local Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) index and the transport of LSW within the DWBC at the Atlantic Repeat hydrographic section 7 West (AR7W). Results show that an increase in the formation rate of LSW entails an increase in the LSW transport in the DWBC within 1 year. This is followed by an enhancement of the overturning in the Labrador Sea. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of paramount importance for the climate. The AMOC contributes to the redistribution of heat, salt, and anthropogenic carbon in the world's oceans. The upper limb of the AMOC transports warm, surface water northward. The lower limb of the AMOC is associated with dense, cold, and deep water formation and is carried by a vigorous Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is one of the water masses formed by deep convection in the subpolar gyre and then carried out of the basin by, among other currents, the DWBC that flows southward along the east coast of Canada. In this paper, we use a simulation to investigate how the change in the formation rate of the LSW could impact the strength of the local AMOC in the Labrador Sea. We found that an increase in the formation rate of LSW entails an increase in the LSW transport in the DWBC within 1 year. This is followed by an enhancement of the overturning in the Labrador Sea. Key Points: Strong convection events in the Labrador Sea entail a high formation rate of Labrador Sea WaterPart of the Labrador Sea Water is exported out of its formation region through the Deep Western Boundary Current within 1 yearStrong, deep convection events are related to a higher local MOC index in the Labrador Sea along the AR7W section [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies using data from the OSNAP observational campaign and from numerical ocean models suggest that the Iceland Basin and the Irminger Sea may be more significant for formation of upper North Atlantic Deep Water than the Labrador Sea. Here, we present a set of hindcast integrations of a global 1/4° NEMO simulation from 1958 until nearly the present day, forced with three standard forcing data sets. We use the surface‐forced stream function, estimated from surface buoyancy fluxes, along with the overturning stream function, similarly defined in potential density space, to investigate the causal link between surface forcing and decadal variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We use the stream functions to demonstrate that watermasses in the simulations are transformed to higher densities as they propagate around the subpolar gyre from their formation locations in the north‐east Atlantic and the Irminger Sea, consistent with the picture emerging from observations. The surface heat loss from the Irminger Sea is confirmed to be the dominant mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, with the heat loss anomaly from the Labrador Sea having about half the magnitude. A scalar metric based on the surface‐forced stream function, accumulated in time, is found to be a good predictor of changes in the overturning strength. The AMOC variability is shown to be related to that of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), primarily through the surface heat flux, itself dominated by the air‐sea temperature difference, but also with some local feedback from the SST to the surface fluxes. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which brings warm waters to the North Atlantic and warms the climate of northern Europe, is known to vary on time scales from annual to many centuries, with significant impacts on European climate. In this paper, we use three numerical model integrations, linking decadal‐time scale changes in the rate of formation of the deep waters exported southwards to changes in the sea surface fields used to force the models. We show that AMOC variability is linked most strongly to wintertime cooling over the Irminger Sea, with cooling over the Labrador Sea having a smaller influence. Using the rates of density increase at each latitude due to surface cooling, accumulated over 10 years, we create an annual index that follows the AMOC strength closely, and show that this has the potential to predict AMOC changes. Key Points: We use three 1/4° forced NEMO integrations to investigate mechanisms for AMOC variabilityDecadal AMOC variability is mainly forced by winter cooling in the Irminger Sea, and to a lesser extent by cooling in the Labrador SeaAn annual index, derived from the surface‐forced stream function and accumulated over 10 years, has predictive skill for the AMOC strength [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the relationship between the long-term variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the intensity of deep convection in the Greenland, Labrador, and Irminger seas, as well as with the intensity of wind induced upwelling in the Southern Ocean. This goal is achieved by extending the AMOC time series back to the 1950s using the AMOC ensemble index. The time variability of the intensity of deep convection over the 60-year study period is estimated using indices of deep convection, while upwelling in the Southern Ocean is estimated from the mean intensity of the divergence of Ekman transport. The contribution of each of the processes is assessed using cross-correlation and multiple regression analyses. The results suggest that during recent decades, the AMOC variations in the North Atlantic were mostly governed by the intensity of deep convection in the Irminger Sea and of upwelling in the Southern Ocean. Among these factors, the intensity of convection in the Irminger Sea has the largest impact on the observed variations in the AMOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the depth (z) and density (ϱ) frameworks, we analyze local contributions to AMOC variability in a 900‐year simulation with the AWI climate model. Both frameworks reveal a consistent interdecadal variability; however, the correlation between their maxima deteriorates on year‐to‐year scales. We demonstrate the utility of analyzing the spatial patterns of sinking and diapycnal transformations through depth levels and isopycnals. The success of this analysis relies on the spatial binning of these maps which is especially crucial for the maps of vertical velocities which appear to be too noisy in the main regions of upwelling and downwelling because of stepwise bottom topography. Furthermore, we show that the AMOC responds to fast (annual or faster) fluctuations in atmospheric forcing associated with the NAO. This response is more obvious in the ϱ than in the z framework. In contrast, the link between AMOC and deep water production south of Greenland is found for slower fluctuations and is consistent between the frameworks. Plain Language Summary: The variability and trends in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are some of the most important characteristics of an ocean model simulation that are relevant for climate. Usually, the AMOC is computed as a meridional transport (from bottom to top) of zonally integrated flow along constant depth levels (z‐AMOC). However, water in the ocean generally flows along the density surfaces. In low latitudes, they are nearly flat and the general picture given by z‐AMOC is highly relevant. In high latitudes, where the most important processes of dense water formation and sinking take place, density surfaces are sloping, and the z‐AMOC gives a distorted image of the real circulation. This is why recent studies underlined the importance of computing the AMOC as a function of density in addition to AMOC as the function of vertical coordinate. In this paper, we analyze the fundamental differences with respect to AMOC variability in both frameworks in a 900‐year run with the AWI climate model. We demonstrate that the latitudinal position of overturning maxima, amplitude, and variability show substantial differences between the frameworks. We suggest that the ϱ‐AMOC and watermass transformation framework should be used routinely in standard analyses, including forthcoming intercomparison projects. Key Points: Patterns of sinking and diapycnal transformation across depth levels and isopycnals, respectively, can be used to study AMOC variabilityThe AMOC subpolar maximum is largely driven by internal transformationsThe density framework illustrates the interplay between surface buoyancy flux and interior‐mixing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expendable bathythermographs (XBT) to profile upper-ocean temperatures from vessels in motion have been in use for some 50 years now. Developed originally for navy use, they were soon adapted by oceanographers to map out upper-ocean thermal structure and its space-time variability from both research vessels and merchant marine vessels in regular traffic. These activities continue today. This paper describes a new technology--the Autonomous Expendable Instrument System (AXIS)--that has been developed to provide the capability to deploy XBT probes on a predefined schedule, or adaptively in response to specific events without the presence of an observer on board. AXIS is a completely self-contained system that can hold up to 12 expendable probes [XBTs, XCTDs, expendable sound velocimeter (XSV)] in any combination. A single-board Linux computer keeps track of what probes are available, takes commands from ashore via Iridium satellite on what deployment schedule to follow, and records and forwards the probe data immediately with a time stamp and the GPS position. This paper provides a brief overview of its operation, capabilities, and some examples of how it is improving coverage along two lines in the Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is one of the most important characteristics of an ocean model run. Using the depth (z) and density frameworks, we analyze how the sinking and diapycnal transformations defining the AMOC as well as AMOC strength and variability react to mesh refinement from low to higher resolution in two model runs driven by the CORE‐II forcing. Both runs can represent the key locations of sinking and diapycnal transformations behind AMOC, that is, northeastern North Atlantic. Although their spatial patterns do not change significantly with resolution in both frameworks as the consequence of the same atmospheric forcing, the quantitative differences, reaching several sverdrups, are seen in different locations between two model runs for both frameworks. In particular, the refinement leads to the strongest differences in the vertical transport and diapycnal transformations in the latitude range between 30°N and 55°N. The z framework emphasizes the role of localized upwelling around the Gulf Stream separation site, whereas the density framework emphasizes the contribution of (spurious) diapycnal mixing around the Grand Banks. Both effects are reduced in the higher‐resolution run, leading to higher AMOC south of 26°N as compared to the low‐resolution run, despite the AMOC maxima, located at high latitudes, are higher in the low‐resolution run. We suggest that both AMOC frameworks should be used routinely in standard analyses, including forthcoming intercomparison projects. Plain Language Summary: In various international programs such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), climate models are used to assess the past, present, and future climate. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is one of the most important characteristics of an ocean model simulation. Commonly, it is computed as a stream function of zonally averaged flow along the constant depth (z‐AMOC). However, there are shortcomings related to the inclination of density surfaces in reality, which may lead to the appearance of artificial circulation cells. In order to eliminate these artifacts, it is essential to compute the AMOC along constant density surfaces (ϱ‐AMOC). That is why recent studies underlined the importance of the ϱ framework for the AMOC analysis. However, neither the CMIP data nor the native output of most of the ocean circulation models is sufficient for the straightforward computation of ϱ‐AMOC. Hence, ϱ‐AMOC remains important but rarely computed diagnostics. In this paper we analyze the fundamental differences between both representations of AMOC in order to better understand the role of the spatial resolution of numerical models in representing AMOC formation, strength, and variability. We suggest that the ϱ‐AMOC and water mass transformation framework should be used routinely in standard analyses, including forthcoming intercomparison projects. Key Points: AMOC in depth and density coordinates manifests same physics differentlyStronger interior transformation at low model resolution causes the difference in AMOC to high resolutionFESOM, a representative of ocean climate models, is able to adequately simulate the locations of sinking and diapycnal transformations behind AMOC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Atlantic meridional density gradients have been identified as a main driver of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Due to the cabbeling effect, these density gradients are increasingly dominated by temperature gradients in a warming ocean, and a direct link exists between North Atlantic mean temperature and AMOC strength. This paper quantifies the impact of this mechanism in the Stommel and Gnanadesikan models. Owing to different feedback mechanisms being included, a 18C warming of North Atlantic mean ocean temperature strengthens the AMOC by 3% in the Gnanadesikan model and 8% in the Stommel model. In the Gnanadesikan model that increase is equivalent to a 4% strengthening of Southern Hemisphere winds and can compensate for a 14% increase in the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, mean temperature strongly controls a freshwater forcing threshold for the strong AMOC state, suggesting that the cabbeling effect needs to be considered to explain past and future AMOC variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Royal Meteorological Society's flagship publication, the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (QJ), recently celebrated its 150th anniversary. To commemorate this milestone, a special collection of 22 classic papers was published, highlighting key advancements in the field from 1925 to 2020. The journal has had a wide international reach and impact, as evidenced by its geographical distribution of articles and downloads. The anniversary was also marked by a commemorative meeting, where experts discussed various topics related to meteorology, including climate science, data assimilation, accurate weather forecasting, cloud evolution, and remote sensing observations. The event provided valuable historical perspectives, practical advice on publishing, and networking opportunities for early-career researchers. [Extracted from the article]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26 $$^{\circ }$$ N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26 $$^{\circ }$$ N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air-sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air-sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26 $$^\circ$$ N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millennial-scale climate change is thought to be synchronous throughout the Northern Hemisphere and has been demonstrated to be strongly modulated by longer-term glacial–interglacial and orbital-scale processes. However, processes that modulate the magnitude of millennial-scale variability (MMV) at the glacial–interglacial time scale remain unclear. We present multiproxy evidence showing out-of-phase relationships between the MMV of East Asian and North Atlantic climate proxies at the eccentricity band. During most late Pleistocene glacial intervals, the MMV in North Atlantic SST and East Asian monsoon (EAM) proxies shows a gradual weakening trend from glacial inceptions into glacial maxima, inversely proportional to that of the North Atlantic ice-rafted detritus record. The inverse glacial age trends apply to both summer and winter monsoon proxies across the loess, speleothem, and marine archives, indicating fundamental linkages between MMV records of the North Atlantic and East Asia. We infer that intensified glacial age iceberg discharge is accompanied by weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation via changes in freshwater input and water column stability, leading to a reduction in North Atlantic SST and wind anomalies, subsequently propagating dampened millennial-scale variability into the midlatitude East Asian monsoon region via the westerlies. Our results indicate that the impact of North Atlantic iceberg discharge and the associated variability in water column stability at the millennial scale is a primary influence on hydroclimate instability in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the global climate system through the redistribution of heat, freshwater and carbon. At 26.5°N, the meridional heat transport has traditionally been partitioned geometrically into vertical and horizontal circulation cells; however, attributing these components to the AMOC and Subtropical Gyre (STG) flow structures remains widely debated. Using water parcel trajectories evaluated within an eddy‐rich ocean hindcast, we present the first Lagrangian decomposition of the meridional heat transport at 26.5°N. We find that water parcels recirculating within the STG account for 37% (0.36 PW) of the total heat transport across 26.5°N, more than twice that of the classical horizontal gyre component (15%). Our findings indicate that STG heat transport cannot be meaningfully distinguished from that of the basin‐scale overturning since water parcels cooled within the gyre subsequently feed the northward, subsurface limb of the AMOC. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transports heat northward by converting warm, surface waters into cold waters returning at depth. In the subtropical North Atlantic, the heat transported by the overturning circulation has traditionally been separated from the wind‐driven gyre circulation by assuming that the gyre flows horizontally along constant depth levels. By tracing the pathways of virtual water parcels in a high‐resolution ocean model, we show that the heat transported by the subtropical gyre is larger than traditional estimates because water parcels spiral downwards across depth levels. Our results indicate that the subtropical gyre should not be considered separate from the overturning circulation, since the water parcels cooled within the gyre subsequently flow northwards to form cold, dense waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. Key Points: Water parcels recirculating in the subtropical gyre account for 37% of the total heat transport at 26.5°N in an eddy‐rich ocean hindcastThe heat transport of the subtropical gyre is associated with shallow vertical overturning rather than the horizontal circulation at 26.5°NBoth horizontal and vertical circulation cells are fundamental components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both historical observations and recent modeling studies reveal a faster warming in the Arctic compared to the Antarctic. To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in this warming asymmetry, we simulate the climate mean state and climate response to doubled CO2 under different climate mean ACC states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP) with the Community Earth System Model. From closed to open DP, a stronger climate mean ACC leads to a stronger climate mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic in the climate mean state. The less climate mean sea ice coverage in a warmer Arctic implies less extensive sea ice melting under global warming. This causes a reduced asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to the doubled CO2. Plain Language Summary: To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in the asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic warming, we conduct two numerical model experiments. We consider two different climate states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP). The former yields a weak ACC, while the latter results in a strong ACC. A stronger climate mean ACC leads to a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic, due primarily to a concurrent stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The diminished coverage of sea ice in the warmer Arctic signifies a reduction in sea ice melting under global warming. Consequently, this leads to a reduction in the asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to doubled CO2. These findings highlight a significant impact of the ACC on the global climate mean state and polar warming asymmetry, and shed light on the uncertainties in the coordinated interaction between major ocean circulation systems (e.g., AMOC and ACC) and on those in inter‐hemisphere interactions. Key Points: A stronger climate mean Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) is accompanied by a stronger mean Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation (AMOC)A stronger climate mean AMOC results in a warmer Arctic with less climate mean sea ice coverageThe less asymmetric polar warming in the presence of stronger climate mean ACC and AMOC is largely due to less sea ice melting in Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Atmosphere -- Ocean (Taylor & Francis Ltd) is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections. Plain Language Summary: Sea level along the U.S. East Coast is influenced by changes in the density and currents of the North Atlantic Ocean. Indeed, there are simple theoretical considerations that relate indices of basin‐scale flow to coastal sea level. Such a relationship could be leveraged to predict future sea level changes and coastal flooding given an expected change in climate and ocean circulation. Alternatively, it could be used to reconstruct ocean circulation from sea level measurements. This paper reviews the nature of this relationship and whether, and when, it is evident in climate models and observations. Although the current generation of large‐scale climate and ocean models generally show an antiphase relationship between basin‐scale ocean current strength and coastal sea level, the spatial pattern of sea level change differs from theory and between models. Supported by existing and emerging research, the authors hypothesize that these deviations result from important physical processes occurring on the continental shelf and slope, and the complexities of the 3‐dimensional ocean circulation. A quantitative assessment of the importance of these processes is critical for understanding past and future climate and sea level changes in this heavily populated and vulnerable region. Key Points: The relationship between the AMOC and coastal sea level is important to flood risk projections and ocean circulation reconstructionsThe amplitude and pattern of sea level variability associated with AMOC variations is location, forcing, timescale, and model dependentFuture research should address the complex spatiotemporal structure of AMOC and the role of near‐coast ageostrophic processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models. Key Points: Theoretical models have provided a dynamical framework for understanding recent AMOC observations and numerical model resultsWe review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes setting the strength, structure, and variability of the AMOCRecent models go beyond the zonal average, include interaction between wind and buoyancy forcing, and acknowledge the importance of eddies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV‐related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric‐scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state‐of‐the‐art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts. Key Points: There is strong evidence that multidecadal variability of the AMOC is a key driver of AMV and associated climate impactsThe AMOC‐AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV, and it is important to use multivariate metrics to understand AMVAMOC‐induced Atlantic meridional heat transport and net surface heat flux anomalies are crucial for many AMV‐related climate impacts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of main modes of the decadal and multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analyzed for the climate models INM-CM5 (INM RAS), CCSM4 (NCAR), MPI-LR and MPI-MR (MPI). It is shown that oscillations with characteristic periods of 25–35 and 50–70 years are recognized in the models, and the corresponding spatial structures are variations of the intensity and position of the AMOC. Relations connecting changes of thermohaline circulation with external impacts on the system are constructed for the above models. The analysis of stability of calculations relative to the length of data series used for calculations is performed. The optimal impacts leading to the greatest response of the AMOC and influence functions causing its response along the leading modes of low-frequency variability are constructed. The optimal impacts have the form of density anomalies localized in the North Atlantic, and the structures of the corresponding responses are dominated by leading low-frequency modes of variability. The structure of optimal impacts varies greatly from model to model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline of ancient societies has been often associated with hydroclimate instabilities. In this paper, we report phytolith records from the Yangtze River Delta of China, to reconstruct middle and late Holocene climate dynamics, and understand societal impacts. Our findings reveal that the area experienced a consistent decline in temperature and humidity punctuated by several rapid climate shifts. A distinct dry episode from 7000 to 6000 cal yr BP likely developed in response to weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), resulting in a weakened East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). This dry condition would have favoured the emergence of dryland and facilitated rice cultivation in the lower Yangtze region. Another dry episode at 4500–4000 cal yr BP, which was probably associated with the widespread 4.2 ka climate event, and linked to a further retreat of the ITCZ and highly variable ENSO intensity, led to highly unstable hydroclimate conditions in the region. We argue that this event disrupted social resilience and culminated in the cultural collapse at the end of Liangzhu Culture. • Cooling trend since 8000 cal yr BP in response to decline of summer insolation. • Dry episodes at 7000–6000 and 4500–4000 cal yr BP. • Strength of AMOC and position of ITCZ jointly modulates the EASM. • Neolithic societal resilience shows varied responses to each dry episode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and understanding their response to past climatic changes may help predict their possible future responses. In this paper, we obtained records of pollen, algae, sediment grain-size, and other environmental proxies, from a late Holocene sediment core (CFD-E) from the Caofeidian area, on the northwest coast of the Bay of Bohai, China. Our results indicate three major stages of environmental change. During Stage I (3500–2800 cal yr BP), arboreal pollen content was high (mostly >60%), especially for Pinus and Quercus , and the PCA sample scores on Axis 1 were negative indicating that regional vegetation was temperate broadleaved forest and the climate was wet. During Stage II (2800–2350 cal yr BP), the arboreal pollen content decreased substantially (mostly <40%), and the PCA Axis 1 sample scores were positive indicating a decrease in forest vegetation, grassland expansion, and a drier climate. During Stage III (2350–1400 cal yr BP), the arboreal pollen content increased again (mostly >40%), although it remained lower than during Stage I, indicating that forests expanded under a relatively humid climate while the wetland area decreased slightly. Our results also record the 2.8 ka and 2.4 ka events of monsoon weakening, which were characterized by increases in herbaceous pollen (indicating grassland expansion) and the drying of the regional climate. There are several differences in the regional expression of these two climatic events. During the 2.4 ka event, Chenopodiaceae pollen increased substantially (average of 42.0%), indicating the expansion of halophytes; whereas during the 2.8 ka event, an increase in Artemisia indicates the occurrence of a dry climate throughout the region. We suggest that the aridity during the 2.8 ka event was triggered by decreased solar activity and the resulting changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which weakened the East Asian summer monsoon. However, we suggest that the 2.4 ka event was driven by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. • Significant increase in halophytic vegetation during 3500–1400 cal yr BP • The 2.8 ka and 2.4 ka events were characterized by climate drying lasting ∼150 years. • During these two events the area of forest decreased and grassland expanded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater discharge from ice sheets induces surface atmospheric cooling and subsurface ocean warming, which are associated with negative and positive feedbacks respectively. However, uncertainties persist regarding these feedbacks' relative strength and combined effect. Here we assess associated feedbacks in a coupled ice sheet-climate model, and show that for the Antarctic Ice Sheet the positive feedback dominates in moderate future warming scenarios and in the early stage of ice sheet retreat, but is overwhelmed by the negative feedback in intensive warming scenarios when the West Antarctic Ice Sheet undergoes catastrophic collapse. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is affected by freshwater discharge from both the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets and, as an interhemispheric teleconnection bridge, exacerbates the opposing ice sheet's retreat via the Bipolar Seesaw. These results highlight the crucial role of ice sheet-climate interactions via freshwater flux in future ice sheet retreat and associated sea-level rise. Ice sheet freshwater discharge interacts with the climate and affects the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate change. This study shows that the overall feedback shifts from positive to negative as the pace of future warming intensifies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate warming is predicted to increase the intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) on decadal timescales, known as the 'temperature-TC intensity' paradigm. However, no proxy is currently available to directly quantify TC intensity in the northwestern Pacific region over centennial to millennial timescales. Here, we reconstruct the intensity of past TCs inferred from event-beds detected in two sedimentary systems in eastern China spanning approximately 1910 to 645 yr BP using an instrumental-calibrated technique, thereby encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the paradigm in the time domain. Intriguingly, our two intensity indices, based on flooding depth and wind speed, provide the initial quantitative evidence that TC intensity in eastern China has been anomalously weak since around 1485 ± 45 yr BP, with a reduction of approximately 30 ± 8% in intensity, despite no concurrent temperature shift. This reduction appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weaker El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and an increased level of Saharan dust. We suggest that the magnitudes of these factors may have crossed a tipping point and have not reverted to their pre-shift levels since that time, resulting in their impact on TC intensity exceeding that of temperature by triggering changes in the oceanic and atmospheric state within the tropical Pacific region where TCs originate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been previously proposed that glacial inception represents a bifurcation transition between interglacial and glacial states and is governed by the nonlinear dynamics of the climate–cryosphere system. To trigger glacial inception, the orbital forcing (defined as the maximum of summer insolation at 65° N and determined by Earth's orbital parameters) must be lower than a critical level, which depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. While paleoclimatic data do not provide a strong constraint on the dependence between CO2 and critical insolation, its accurate estimation is of fundamental importance for predicting future glaciations and the effect that anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them. In this study, we use the novel Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X with interactive ice sheets to produce a new estimation of the critical insolation– CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception. We perform a series of experiments in which different combinations of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 concentration are maintained constant in time. We analyze for which combinations of orbital forcing and CO2 glacial inception occurs and trace the critical relationship between them, separating conditions under which glacial inception is possible from those where glacial inception is not materialized. We also provide a theoretical foundation for the proposed critical insolation– CO2 relation. We find that the use of the maximum summer insolation at 65° N as a single metric for orbital forcing is adequate for tracing the glacial inception bifurcation. Moreover, we find that the temporal and spatial patterns of ice sheet growth during glacial inception are not always the same but depend on the critical insolation and CO2 level. The experiments evidence the fact that during glacial inception, ice sheets grow mostly in North America, and only under low CO2 conditions are ice sheets also formed over Scandinavia. The latter is associated with a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for low CO2. We find that the strength of AMOC also affects the rate of ice sheet growth during glacial inception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 8.2 ka event has been extensively investigated as a remarkable single event but rarely considered as a part of multi-centennial climatic evolution. Here, we present absolutely dated speleothem multi-proxy records spanning 9.0–7.9 ka from Beijing in North China, near the northern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and thus sensitive to climate change, to provide evidence of the intensified multi-decadal climatic oscillations since 8.52 ka. Three extreme excursions characterized by inter-decadal consecutive δ18 O excursions exceeding ±1σ are identified from 8.52 ka in our speleothem record. The earlier two are characterized by enriched 18 O at ∼8.50 and 8.20 ka, respectively, suggesting a prolonged arid event, which is supported by the positive trend in δ13 C values, increased trace element ratios, and lower growth rate. Following the 8.2 ka event, an excessive rebound immediately emerges in our δ18 O and trace element records but moderate in the δ13 C, probably suggesting pluvial conditions and nonlinear response of the local ecosystem. Following two similar severe droughts at 8.50 and 8.20 ka, the different behavior of δ13 C suggests the recovering degree of resilient ecosystem responding to different rebounded rainfall intensity. A comparison with other high-resolution records suggests that the two droughts–one pluvial pattern between 8.52 and 8.0 ka is of global significance instead of being a regional phenomenon, and is causally linked to the slowdown and acceleration of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that was further dominated by the freshwater injections in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial terminations are marked by a re-organisation of the different components of the climate system. In particular, rapid ice sheet disintegration leads to multiple complex feedback loops that are still poorly understood. To further investigate this aspect, we use here a fully coupled Northern Hemisphere ice sheet–climate model to perform numerical experiments of the last two glacial terminations. We show that even if the first-order climate trajectory is similar for the two terminations, the difference in terms of solar insolation leads to important changes for the ice sheet–climate system. Warmer temperatures during the penultimate termination are compatible with higher sea level during the last interglacial period with respect to the Holocene. We simulate a last interglacial Greenland contribution to sea level rise of about 2 m of sea level equivalent. We also simulate warmer subsurface Southern Ocean, compatible with an additional contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, even without considering freshwater flux to the ocean resulting from ice sheet melting, the two terminations display different Atlantic overturning circulation sensitivity, this circulation being more prone to collapses during the penultimate termination. Finally, with additional sensitivity experiments we show that, for the two terminations, the Northern Hemisphere insolation is the main driver for the ice sheet retreat even if vegetation changes have also to be taken into account to simulate the full deglaciation. Conversely, even though it impacts the temperature, greenhouse gas concentration change alone does not explain the amplitude of ice sheet retreat and only modulates its timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are associated with Northern Hemispheric and global climate shifts. Thermal thresholds of the AMOC have been found in a hierarchy of numerical circulation models, and there is an increasing body of evidence for the existence of highly sensitive AMOC modes where small perturbations can cause disproportionately large circulation and hence climatic changes. We discovered such thresholds in simulations with the intermediate-complexity Earth system model Bern3D, which is highly computationally efficient, allowing for studying this non-linear behaviour systematically over entire glacial cycles. By simulating the AMOC under different magnitudes of orbitally paced changes in radiative forcing over the last 788 000 years, we show that up to three thermal thresholds are crossed during glacial cycles in Bern3D and that thermal forcing could have destabilised the AMOC repeatedly. We present the circulation and sea ice patterns that characterise the stable circulation modes between which this model oscillates during a glacial cycle and assess how often and when thermal forcing could have preconditioned the Bern3D AMOC for abrupt shifts over the last 788 kyr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The non‐local model of mixing based on internal wave breaking, IDEMIX, is implemented as an enhancement of a turbulent kinetic energy closure model in three non‐eddy resolving general circulation ocean models that differ in the discretization and choice of computational grids. In IDEMIX internal wave energy is generated by an energy flux resulting from near‐inertial waves induced by wind forcing at the surface, and at the bottom, by an energy flux that parameterizes the transfer of energy between baroclinic and barotropic tides. In all model simulations with IDEMIX, the mixing work is increased compared to the reference solutions without IDEMIX, reaching values in better agreement with finestructure observations. Furthermore, the horizontal structure of the mixing work is more realistic as a consequence of the heterogeneous forcing functions. All models with IDEMIX simulate deeper thermocline depths related to stronger shallow overturning cells in the Indo‐Pacific. In the North Atlantic, deeper mixed layers in simulations with IDEMIX are associated with an increased Atlantic overturning circulation and an increase of northward heat transports toward more realistic values. The response of the deep Indo‐Pacific overturning circulation and the weak bottom cell of the Atlantic to the inclusion of IDEMIX is incoherent between the models, suggesting that additional unidentified processes and numerical mixing may confound the analysis. Applying different tidal forcing functions leads to simulation differences that are small compared to differences between the different models or between simulations with IDEMIX and without IDEMIX. Plain Language Summary: Waves in the ocean interior play a fundamental role for ocean dynamics since they can carry energy over long distances and, once they break, lead to turbulent mixing. This turbulent mixing can cause dense water masses to rise from the deep ocean with a direct impact on large‐scale currents. The wave dynamics occur on spatial scales that cannot be resolved in global ocean or climate models. To account for these processes, we apply the new parameterization IDEMIX that describes internal wave generation, propagation, and mixing. Using three different ocean models with and without IDEMIX ensures that we can identify model‐specific effects of the parameterization and discriminate them from those independent of the model. We find that the simulated mixing patterns agree better with observations once IDEMIX is applied. Large‐scale currents and the vertical temperature distribution are substantially affected by the internal wave parameterization. Whether this leads to an improved agreement with observed currents and water mass properties depends on the specific model and on numerical effects. In most cases, simulations with IDEMIX are not very sensitive to details of how the internal wave model is driven by tidal energy input. Key Points: the IDEMIX closure for a consistent representation of internal wave‐induced mixing is evaluated in three state‐of‐the‐art ocean modelsonly in simulations with IDEMIX can the models reproduce the magnitude and spatial variability of the observed mixing workmost changes with IDEMIX can be attributed to stronger mixing, but some effects are confounded by other processes and numerical mixing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]