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The latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NHJ) modulates the occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events. Precipitation anomalies in particular are associated with NHJ variability; the resulting floods and droughts can have considerable societal and economic impacts. This study develops a new climatology of the 300-hPa NHJ using a bottom-up approach based on seasonally explicit latitudinal NHJ positions. Four seasons with coherent NHJ patterns were identified (January-February, April-May, July-August, and October-November), along with 32 longitudinal sectors where the seasonal NHJ shows strong spatial coherence. These 32 longitudinal sectors were then used as NHJ position indices to examine the influence of seasonal NHJ position on the geographical distribution of NH precipitation and temperature variability and their link to atmospheric circulation pattern. The analyses show that the NHJ indices are related to broad-scale patterns in temperature and precipitation variability, in terrestrial vegetation productivity and spring phenology, and can be used as diagnostic/prognostic tools to link ecosystem and socioeconomic dynamics to upper-level atmospheric patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the northern hemisphere, there are six permanent or semi-permanent atmospheric activity centers, namely the Icelandic Low, Aleutian Low, India Low, Mongolia High, North Pacific High, and North Atlantic High. The first four are semi-permanent action centers and the last two are permanent circulation systems. The India Low exists only during the summer. By using 160 years (1850-2009) of monthly mean sea level pressure data from the Hadley Centre in the UK, we conduct a comprehensive study of the five boreal winter atmospheric centers of action (ACAs). Based on a unified definition and a method determined in previous studies, we calculate the indices of areal coverage (S), intensity (P), and position of action center ( λ , φ ) for each of these five ACAs. Through an in-depth analysis of these indices and their relationships with climate variables, we evaluate the indices by describing and explaining areal climate anomalies, particularly precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. We show that (1) ACAs significantly influence the climate anomalies of surrounding areas (2) the influences of oceanic ACAs are larger and the intensity anomalies of ACAs have a greater impact than their location displacement, and (3) ACAs exert more control on temperature than they do on precipitation. For the two ACAs over the north Atlantic, the impacts of their intensities on the anomalies of temperature and precipitation are similar. For the two ACAs over the north Pacific, their influences are almost the opposite. The most influential ACA for climate anomalies in China during the boreal winter is HMO. When HMO is stronger, China has a colder winter and it is wetter in the north. With stronger ACAs in the upstream, i.e., the Icelandic Low and North Atlantic High, northern China has a warmer winter. The ACAs over the north Pacific exert little influence on climate anomalies in China during winter. The analyses presented in this paper provide a set of useful indices for defining and describing ACAs, and they suggest insightful applications for these indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the physical processes controlling how synoptic midlatitude temperature variability near the surface changes with climate. Because synoptic temperature variability is primarily generated by advection, it can be related to mean potential temperature gradients and mixing lengths near the surface. Scaling arguments show that the reduction of meridional potential temperature gradients that accompanies polar amplification of global warming leads to a reduction of the synoptic temperature variance near the surface. This is confirmed in simulations of a wide range of climates with an idealized GCM. In comprehensive climate simulations (CMIP5), Arctic amplification of global warming similarly entails a large-scale reduction of the near-surface temperature variance in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in winter. The probability density functions of synoptic near-surface temperature variations in midlatitudes are statistically indistinguishable from Gaussian, both in reanalysis data and in a range of climates simulated with idealized and comprehensive GCMs. This indicates that changes in mean values and variances suffice to account for changes even in extreme synoptic temperature variations. Taken together, the results indicate that Arctic amplification of global warming leads to even less frequent cold outbreaks in Northern Hemisphere winter than a shift toward a warmer mean climate implies by itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In boreal spring-to-autumn (May-to-September) 2012 and 2013, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced a large number of severe midlatitude regional weather extremes. Here we show that a considerable part of these extremes were accompanied by highly magnified quasistationary midlatitude planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. We further show that resonance conditions for these planetary waves were, in many cases, present before the onset of high-amplitude wave events, with a lead time up to 2 wk, suggesting that quasiresonant amplification (QRA) of these waves had occurred. Our results support earlier findings of an important role of the QRA mechanism in amplifying planetary waves, favoring recent NH weather extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics and predictability of stratospheric low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter are examined using a two-dimensional (2D) phase space spanned by the leading empirical orthogonal functions of the 10-hPa geopotential height field. The 2D phase space represents the variation of the strength of the polar night jet and the amplitude of zonal wavenumber-1 eddy components. A linearized nonstationary fluctuation-dissipation relation (NFDR) is developed based on the deterministic drift vector and the stochastic diffusion tensor estimated from a reanalysis dataset. The authors find that the solution of the linearized NFDR with an optimal data sampling time interval for estimating the drift vector and the diffusion tensor provides a good representation in the phase space of the inhomogeneous distribution of the forecast spread of the operational ensemble forecast conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In particular, the linearized NFDR captures the local maximum of the forecast spread during the onset period of the major stratospheric sudden warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong westward wind pattern at altitudes of ∼140–250 km at high latitudes (∼65°) in the approximate longitude range of 100°E–200°E in the Southern Hemisphere, and from 200°E to 300°E in the Northern Hemisphere, known as a "wind wall," is investigated. Simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM‐X) and the Global Airglow (GLOW) model, along with Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) observations, allowed the description of most of the wind wall features. The results indicate that the wind wall is linked to the well‐known high‐latitude wind convection pattern. This atmospheric circulation is significantly stronger during active geomagnetic conditions, where its dusk anticyclonic circulation cell is also enhanced, which results in the origin of the wind wall. The study also reveals the impacts of the wind wall on the vertical velocity and its consequences for the O(1S) green line emission on the lower thermosphere, as well as its influence on the atomic oxygen depletion at high latitudes, which is mainly a response to the complex high‐latitude wind convection pattern and its spatial and temporal variation. Key Points: Strong thermospheric westward winds at polar regions, known as a wind wall, are associated with the high‐latitude convection patternThe wind wall pattern has its origin in the active geomagnetic conditionsOver the lower thermosphere, the wind wall leads to perturbations on the vertical winds, the O(1S) emission rates, and the atomic oxygen [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern Pacific (EP) intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is sometimes observed to break down into several vortices on the synoptic time scale. It is still a challenge for present-day numerical models to simulate the ITCZ breakdown in the baroclinic modes. Also, the upscale impact of the associated mesoscale fluctuations on the planetary-scale circulation is not well understood. Here, a simplified multiscale model for the modulation of the ITCZ is used to study these issues. A prescribed two-scale heating drives the planetary-scale circulation through both planetary-scale mean heating and eddy flux divergence of zonal momentum, where the latter represents the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In an idealized scenario where the heating only varies on the mesoscale, key features of the ITCZ breakdown in the baroclinic modes are captured. The eddy flux divergence of zonal momentum is characterized by midlevel (low level) eastward (westward) momentum forcing at subtropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and opposite-signed midlevel momentum forcing at low latitudes. Such upscale impact of mesoscale fluctuations tends to accelerate (decelerate) planetary-scale zonal jets in the middle (lower) troposphere. Compared with deep heating, shallow heating induces stronger vorticity anomalies on the mesoscale and more significant eddy flux divergence of zonal momentum and acceleration–deceleration effects on the planetary-scale mean flow. In a more realistic scenario where the heating also varies on the planetary scale, the most significant zonal velocity anomalies are confined in the diabatic heating region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study builds upon existing research suggesting recent changes in the circulation of global subtropical gyres with respect to the South Atlantic Ocean using simulation results from the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model version 1—the Parallel Ocean Program version 2. The results point to an intensification of the total anticyclonic circulation of the subtropical gyre and a southward displacement of the system, as revealed by the wind stress curl, sea surface height, and barotropic stream function fields. Increased values of these variables were found within the dynamical limits of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (SASG), while their basin‐scale structure seemed to be concurrently drifting poleward. The southern branch of the South Equatorial Current (sSEC) marks the northern boundary of the SASG. When reaching the South American coast, it bifurcates into the North Brazil Undercurrent to the north and the Brazil Current to the south. The sSEC bifurcation latitude (SBL) dictates the partition between the waters flowing poleward to recirculate within the SASG and those flowing toward the equatorial region and the Northern Hemisphere. A southward migration of the SBL at a rate of −0.11°± 0.03°/year was observed, associated with a substantial increase in the equatorward advection of waters within the sSEC‐SBL‐North Brazil Undercurrent system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of snow cover in western and central China during late autumn on wintertime blocking occurrence is investigated using reanalysis data. The study results show that wintertime atmospheric circulations affected by late autumn snow cover anomalies form favorable conditions for increased blocking frequency (BF), especially in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Evidence is also presented that the stratosphere-troposphere interactions are the key mechanism of the lag response of wintertime North Pacific and North Atlantic BFs to the late autumn snow cover. That is, positive anomalous snow cover can induce a dipole anomaly in the geopotential height field over the lower stratosphere, due to the decrease of the 300-1000-hPa thickness and the concurrent variation between the East Asian plateau jet and the polar front jet. The associated positive geopotential height anomalies are located over northwestern Eurasia. Meanwhile, western and central China shows remarkably negative geopotential height anomalies. Also, the corresponding atmospheric circulation in the lower stratosphere increases the Eliassen-Palm flux that propagates into the stratosphere through the constructive interference between the forced and climatological waves. The upward wave activity fluxes collapse the polar vortex in the stratosphere, resulting in the downward propagation of the geopotential and wind anomalies from the stratosphere. Consequently, the decreased zonal wind speed in the upper layer of the blocking region forms conditions favorable for wintertime blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamical variability of the boreal stratospheric polar vortex has been usually analysed considering the extended winter as a whole or only focusing on December, January and February. Yet recent studies have found intra-seasonal differences in the boreal stratospheric dynamics. In this study, the intra-seasonal variability of anomalous wave activity preceding polar vortex extremes in the Northern Hemisphere is examined using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Weak (WPV) and strong (SPV) polar vortex events are grouped into early, mid- or late winter sub-periods depending on the onset date. Overall, the strongest (weakest) wave-activity anomalies preceding polar vortex extremes are found in mid- (early) winter. Most of WPV (SPV) events in early winter occur under the influence of east (west) phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and an enhancement (inhibition) of wavenumber-1 wave activity (WN1). Mid- and late winter WPV events are preceded by a strong vortex and an enhancement of WN1 and WN2, but the spatial structure of the anomalous wave activity and the phase of the QBO are different. Prior to mid-winter WPVs the enhancement of WN2 is related to the predominance of La Niña and linked to blockings over Siberia. Mid-winter SPV events show a negative phase of the Pacific-North America pattern that inhibits WN1 injected into the stratosphere. This study suggests that dynamical features preceding extreme polar vortex events in mid-winter should not be generalized to other winter sub-periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show the tropical belt has widened over the past few decades, a phenomenon associated with poleward migration of subtropical dry zones and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Coupled climate models also simulate tropical belt widening, but less so than observed. Reasons for this discrepancy, and the mechanisms driving the expansion remain uncertain. Here, the role of unforced, natural climate variability-particularly natural sea surface temperature (SST) variability-in recent tropical widening is shown. Compared to coupled ocean-atmosphere models, atmosphere-only simulations driven by observed SSTs consistently lead to larger rates of tropical widening, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), highlighting the importance of recent SST evolution. Assuming the ensemble mean SSTs from historical simulations accurately represent the externally forced response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. Targeted simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), show that natural SST variability accounts for nearly all of the widening associated with recent SST evolution. This is consistent with the similarity of the unforced SSTs to the observed SSTs, both of which resemble a cold El Niño-Southern Oscillation/Pacific decadal oscillation (ENSO/PDO)-like SST pattern, which is associated with a wider tropical belt. Moreover, CAM5 coupled simulations with observed central to eastern tropical Pacific SSTs yield more than double the rate of widening compared to analogous simulations without prescribed tropical Pacific SSTs and reproduce the magnitude of tropical widening in atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the bulk of recent tropical widening, particularly in the NH, is due to unforced, natural SST variability, primarily related to recent ENSO/PDO variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the 'Vangengeim-Girs' circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season and to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter spring and autumn and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models' midlatitude circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that subtropical and extratropical circulations are linked seasonally and in response to climate change. In particular, amplification (weakening) of subtropical stationary eddies is linked to a poleward (equatorward) shift of the extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Here the mechanisms linking subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change are examined using prescribed sea surface temperature aquaplanet simulations with a subtropical zonal asymmetry that mimics land-ocean contrasts. A poleward circulation shift occurs in response to uniform global warming even in the presence of subtropical stationary eddies. Subtropical stationary eddies exhibit a weak response to global warming; however, regional warming of temperature (or equivalent potential temperature) over land (ocean) increases (decreases) stationary eddy amplitude and shifts the extratropical circulation poleward (equatorward), consistent with comprehensive models. The stationary eddy response to regional warming is connected to regional moist entropy gradient, energy input to the atmosphere, and gross moist stability changes. Stationary eddy amplitude changes directly affect momentum and moist static energy transport following linear wave and mixing length theories. The transport changes do not follow a fixed-diffusivity framework. Extratropical transient eddy transport changes compensate ~70%-90% of the subtropical stationary eddy transport response. This assumes exact subtropical compensation accounts for a large fraction of the meridional shift of the extratropical circulation in response to regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Niño strengthens the Brewer-Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at ~25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature (SAT) is examined in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model, a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model. A statistical method maximizing average predictability time (APT) is used to identify the most predictable SAT patterns in the model. The two leading APT modes are much localized and the physics are discussed that give rise to the enhanced predictability of SAT in these limited regions. Multiyear SAT predictability exists near the sea ice margin in the North Atlantic and mid-latitude North Pacific sector. Enhanced predictability in the North Atlantic is linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and to the sea ice changes. In the North Pacific, the most predictable SAT pattern is characterized by a zonal band in the western and central mid-latitude Pacific. This pattern is linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which drives sea surface temperature anomalies. The temperature anomalies subduct into deeper ocean layers and re-emerge at the sea surface during the following winters, providing multiyear memory. Results obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble yield similar APT modes. Overall, the results stress the importance of ocean dynamics in enhancing predictability in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979-2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA- 55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetaryscale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899–2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A data-driven, high-order vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is evaluated for predicting the Northern Hemisphere summer time (May through September) low frequency (>10 days or so) variability. The VAR model is suitable for linear stationary time series, similar to the commonly used linear inverse model (LIM), with additional temporal information incorporated to improve forecast skill. The intraseasonal forecast skill of the 250/750 hPa streamfunction is investigated using observational data since 1979, which shows significant improvements in high-order VAR models than the first-order model LIM. Furthermore, the tropical diabatic heating is found to significantly improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric low frequency circulation when included in the VAR model. The forecast skill of 250 hPa streamfunction at Arabian Peninsula is particularly enhanced for up to 5 weeks lead-time through circumglobal wave propagation associated with the persistent tropical eastern Pacific and equatorial Atlantic heating anomalies and the intraseasonal evolution of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific heating anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship of Barents-Kara sea ice concentration in October and November with atmospheric circulation in the subsequent winter is examined using reanalysis and observational data. The analyses are performed on data with the 5-year running means removed to reduce the potential effects of slowly-varying external driving factors, such as global warming. We show that positive (negative) Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly in autumn is associated with a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation-like (NAO) pattern with lags of up to 3 months. The month-to-month variations in the lag relationships of the atmospheric anomalies related to November sea ice concentration are presented. Further analysis shows that the stratosphere-troposphere interaction may provide the memory in the system: positive (negative) sea ice concentration anomaly in November is associated with a strengthened (weakened) stratospheric polar vortex and these anomalies propagate downward leading to the positive (negative) NAO-like pattern in the late December to early January. This stratosphere mechanism may also play a role for Barents-Kara sea ice anomaly in December, but not for September and October. Consistently, Eliassen-Palm, eddy heat and momentum fluxes suggest that there is strong forcing of the zonal winds in November. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relatively few marine or terrestrial paleoclimate studies have focused on glacial inception, the transition from an interglacial to a glacial climate state. As a result, neither the timing and structure of glacial inception nor the spatial pattern of glacial inception in different parts of the world is well known. Here we present results of a study of a speleothem from the Peruvian Andes that records changes in the intensity of South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) rainfall over the period from 125 to 115 ka. The results show that late in the last interglacial period, at 123 ka, SASM rainfall decreased, perhaps in response to a decrease in temperature and ice cover in the high northern latitudes and associated changes in atmospheric circulation. Then at 120.8 ka, a rapid increase in SASM rainfall marks the end of the last interglacial. After a more gradual increase between 120 and 117 ka, a second abrupt increase occurs at 117 ka. This pattern of change is mirrored to a remarkable degree by changes in the East Asian Monsoon. It is interpreted to reflect both a long-term gradual response of the monsoons to orbitally driven insolation changes and to rapid changes in Northern Hemisphere ice volume and temperature. Both monsoon systems are close to their full glacial conditions by 117 ka, before any significant decrease in atmospheric CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations with climate models show a land-ocean contrast in the response of P − E (precipitation minus evaporation or evapotranspiration) to global warming, with larger changes over ocean than over land. The changes over ocean broadly follow a simple thermodynamic scaling of the atmospheric moisture convergence: the so-called 'wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier' mechanism. Over land, however, the simple scaling fails to give any regions with decreases in P − E, and it overestimates increases in P − E compared to the simulations. Changes in circulation cause deviations from the simple scaling, but they are not sufficient to explain this systematic moist bias. It is shown here that horizontal gradients of changes in temperature and fractional changes in relative humidity, not accounted for in the simple scaling, are important over land and high-latitude oceans. An extended scaling that incorporates these gradients is shown to better capture the response of P − E over land, including a smaller increase in global-mean runoff and several regions with decreases in P − E. In the zonal mean over land, the gradient terms lead to a robust drying tendency at almost all latitudes. This drying tendency is shown to relate, in part, to the polar amplification of warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the amplified warming over continental interiors and on the eastern side of midlatitude continents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clusters in the Northern Hemisphere wintertime, 10-day low-pass-filtered 500-hPa height field are identified using the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs). Results are based on 1) a 57-winter record of ERA and 2) a 93-winter record of the NOAA Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CR). The clusters derived from SOMs appear to be more robust and more linearly independent than their counterparts derived from Ward's method, and clusters with comparable numbers of member days are more distinctive in terms of the standardized Euclidean distances of their centroids from the centroid of the dataset. The reproducible SOM clusters in the hemispheric domain are 1) the negative polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 2) a pattern suggestive of Alaska blocking with a downstream wave train extending over North America and the North Atlantic, 3) an enhancement of the climatological-mean stationary wave pattern in the Western Hemisphere that projects positively upon the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, and 4) a pattern that projects upon the negative polarity of the PNA pattern. The first three patterns have important impacts on the wintertime climate in North America and Europe. In particular, they are helpful in interpreting prevailing flow patterns during the exceptional winters of 1930-31, 2009-10, and 2013-14. Because of the very limited number of independent samples in a single winter, the number of days per winter in which the circulation resides within individual clusters varies erratically from winter to winter, rendering attribution difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a finite-element, bounded-variation, vector autoregressive method to assess midtropospheric flow regimes characterized by regime switches between metastable states. The flow is assessed in reanalysis data from three different reanalysis sets assimilating surface data only; surface and upper-air data; and ocean, surface, and upper-air data. Results are generally consistent across the reanalyses and confirm the utility of surface-only reanalyses for capturing midtropospheric variability. The method is applied to a set of regional domains in the Northern Hemisphere and for the full-hemispheric domain. Composites of the metastable states for each region yield structures that are consistent with the well-documented teleconnection modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific-North America pattern (PNA) in the Pacific Ocean, and Scandinavian blocking over Eurasia. The PNA mode includes a clear waveguide structure in midlatitudes. The Northern Hemisphere domain yields a state composite that reflects aspects of an annular mode (Arctic Oscillation), where the annular component in midlatitudes comprises a circumglobal waveguide. The Northern Hemisphere waveguide is characterized by wavenumber 5. Some of the nodes in this circumglobal waveguide manifest as part of regional dipole structures like the PNA. This situation contrasts with the Southern Hemisphere, where the circumglobal waveguide exhibits wavenumbers 3 and 5 and is monopolar. For each of the regions and modes examined, the annual time series of residence percent in each state displays prominent decadal variability and provides a clear means of identifying regimes of the major teleconnection modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abundance of chlorine in the Earth's atmosphere increased considerably during the 1970s to 1990s, following large emissions of anthropogenic long-lived chlorine-containing source gases, notably the chlorofluorocarbons. The chemical inertness of chlorofluorocarbons allows their transport and mixing throughout the troposphere on a global scale, before they reach the stratosphere where they release chlorine atoms that cause ozone depletion. The large ozone loss over Antarctica was the key observation that stimulated the definition and signing in 1987 of the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty establishing a schedule to reduce the production of the major chlorine- and bromine-containing halocarbons. Owing to its implementation, the near-surface total chlorine concentration showed a maximum in 1993, followed by a decrease of half a per cent to one per cent per year, in line with expectations. Remote-sensing data have revealed a peak in stratospheric chlorine after 1996, then a decrease of close to one per cent per year, in agreement with the surface observations of the chlorine source gases and model calculations. Here we present ground-based and satellite data that show a recent and significant increase, at the 2σ level, in hydrogen chloride (HCl), the main stratospheric chlorine reservoir, starting around 2007 in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, in contrast with the ongoing monotonic decrease of near-surface source gases. Using model simulations, we attribute this trend anomaly to a slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, occurring over several consecutive years, transporting more aged air to the lower stratosphere, and characterized by a larger relative conversion of source gases to HCl. This short-term dynamical variability will also affect other stratospheric tracers and needs to be accounted for when studying the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian-North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term trends are observed in the spatial variability of atmospheric circulation in the 18th-23rd solar cycles in the middle troposphere at the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The intensification of solar activity in the cycle chronologically coincides with the formation of the extensive anomalies of geopotential at the level of 500 hPa over the northern parts of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Upper-level troughs gradually move from middle to high latitudes and, having reached the Arctic Ocean, start moving back to the south. The certain synchronization in the manifestation of natural processes on the Sun and Earth enables considering the features of the spatial distribution of natural anomalies for several solar cycles as a kind of the 'marker' of natural long-term fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using observations and 1-month lead hindcast data from six coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, this study investigates the interdecadal change in the leading maximum covariance analysis mode (MCA1) of atmospheric circulation in response to the changes in the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred around late 1970s. We focus on boreal winter climate variability and predictability over the North Pacific-North American (NPNA) region using December-January-February prediction initiated from November 1st in the period of 1960-1980 (P1) and 1981-2001 (P2). Observed analysis reveals that ENSO variability, the related tropical convective activity, and thus the MCA1 are considerably enhanced from P1 to P2. As a result, surface climate anomalies over the NPNA are more significantly correlated with the MCA1 in P2 than P1, particularly over North America. The six coupled models and their multi-model ensemble not only are capable of capturing the interdecadal change of the MCA1 and its relationship with surface air temperature and precipitation over the NPNA regions but also have significantly higher forecast skills for the MCA1 and the surface climate anomalies in P2 than P1. However, models have systematic biases in the spatial distribution of the MCA1. It is demonstrated that the interdecadal change in the MCA1 should contribute to the improved forecast skill of the NPNA climate during recent epoch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratosphere and its dynamics are a very important part of atmospheric circulation. We need to analyze its climatology, as well as long-term trends. A long-term trend study needs homogenous datasets without significant artificial discontinuities. The analysis is based on the two newest released reanalyses, Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis (MERRA2) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA5). The aim of this study is to detect discontinuities in the temperature time series from the above reanalyses with the help of the Pettitt homogeneity test for pressure layers above 500 hPa up to 1 hPa in January and February, and show a comparison of temperature trends from the studied reanalyses and GPS radio occultation (GPS RO). We search for individual grid points where these discontinuities occur, and also for the years when they occur (geographical and temporal distribution). As expected, the study confirms better results for the Northern Hemisphere due to the denser data coverage. A high number of grid points with jumps on the Southern Hemisphere is found, especially at higher pressure levels (from 50 hPa). The spatial and vertical distribution of discontinuities is also presented. The vertical distribution reveals the reduction of the number of jumps around 10 hPa, especially for ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that ERA5 has significantly less jumps than MERRA2. We also study temperature trends from reanalyses and GPS RO and our analysis shows that the agreement between the reanalyses and observations are very good for the period 2006–2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemisphere western boundary currents, like the Gulf Stream, are key regions for cyclogenesis affecting large-scale atmospheric circulation. Recent observations and model simulations with high-temporal and -spatial resolution have provided evidence that the associated ocean fronts locally affect troposphere dynamics. A coherent view of how this affects the mean climate and its variability is, however, lacking. In particular the separate role of resolved ocean and atmosphere dynamics in shaping the atmospheric circulation is still largely unknown. Here we demonstrate for the first time, by using coupled seasonal forecast experiments at different resolutions, that resolving meso-scale oceanic variability in the Gulf Stream region strongly affects mid-latitude interannual atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation. Its impact on climatology, however, is minor. Increasing atmosphere resolution to meso-scale, on the other hand, strongly affects mean climate but moderately its variability. We also find that regional predictability relies on adequately resolving small-scale atmospheric processes, while resolving small-scale oceanic processes acts as an unpredictable source of noise, except for the North Atlantic storm-track where the forcing of the atmosphere translates into skillful predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A heat source is applied to different surface locations in a fully coupled climate model to study the cross‐equatorial energy transport and tropical precipitation responses. Remarkably different tropical precipitation responses are seen, varying from a large shift toward, to a small shift away from, the heated hemisphere. These differences are dominated by changes in top‐of‐atmosphere radiation, with some contribution from changes in ocean cross‐equatorial heat flux. The atmospheric fraction of the total cross‐equatorial heat flux is consistently larger for Northern Hemisphere (NH) heating relative to Southern Hemisphere heating. This results in a larger tropical rainfall shift in response to NH heating. Positive shortwave radiative feedbacks, associated with a burn‐off of low clouds in the North Pacific, also amplify the tropical rainfall response to NH heating. The Pacific Ocean dominates the ocean response to Southern Hemisphere heating, while the Atlantic Ocean dominates the ocean response to NH heating. Plain Language Summary: When there is a change in the energy balance between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, for example, because of aerosol emissions (or clean‐up), then heat transport across the equator must shift to maintain energy balance. If that cross‐equatorial heat transport is produced by changes in the atmospheric circulation (instead of ocean circulation), then tropical precipitation shifts toward the more heated hemisphere. We perturb a fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate model with localized heating at the ocean surface in different hemispheres, latitudes, and ocean basins, and study the circulation and tropical precipitation responses. The largest response is from heating in the extratropical North Pacific; this is largely because of strong positive cloud feedbacks in this region and partially because changes in ocean heat transport contribute relatively little to the required change in cross‐equatorial heat transport. In this climate model we find that tropical precipitation is more sensitive to Northern Hemisphere heating than Southern Hemisphere heating and more sensitive to heating in the North Pacific than the North Atlantic. This will have implications for the tropical precipitation response to aerosol clean‐up, and perhaps to cloud feedbacks in different regions in response to global warming. Key Points: Heating in different basins/hemispheres in a fully coupled GCM gives remarkably different circulation, TOA radiation, and ITCZ responsesThe ITCZ is more sensitive to Northern Hemispheric (particularly North Pacific) heating than Southern Hemispheric heatingStrong Northern Hemisphere positive feedbacks can result in a northward ITCZ shift in response to local heating in the Southern Hemisphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]