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The literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short‐term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early‐life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30–39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth to age four. Results suggest that early‐life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub‐Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Geospatial data are important in monitoring many aspects of healthcare development. Geographically linking health facility data with population data is an important area of public health research. Examining healthcare problems spatially and hierarchically assists with efficient resource allocation and the monitoring and evaluation of service efficacy at different levels. This paper explored methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage, and the spatial and multilevel analyses that could be considered in analysing maternal health service data. Methods: The 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey and the 2014 Ethiopia Service Provision Assessment data were used. Two geographic data linking methods were used to link these two datasets. Administrative boundary link was used to link a sample of health facilities data with population survey data for analysing three areas of maternal health service use. Euclidean buffer link was used for a census of hospitals to analyse caesarean delivery use in Ethiopia. The Global Moran’s I and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics need to be carried out for identifying hot spots of maternal health service use in ArcGIS software. In addition to this, since the two datasets contain hierarchical data, a multilevel analysis was carried out to identify key determinants of maternal health service use in Ethiopia. Results: Administrative boundary link gave more types of health facilities and more maternal health services as compared to the Euclidean buffer link. Administrative boundary link is the method of choice in case of sampled health facilities. However, for a census of health facilities, the Euclidean buffer link is the appropriate choice as this provides cluster level service environment estimates, which the administrative boundary link does not. Applying a False Discovery Rate correction enables the identification of true spatial clusters of maternal health service use. Conclusions: A service environment link minimizes the methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage. A False Discovery Rate correction needs to be used to account for multiple and dependent testing while carrying out local spatial statistics. Examining maternal health service use both spatially and hierarchically has tremendous importance for identifying geographic areas that need special emphasis and for intervention purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes 24 African census samples from 13 countries available via the African Integrated Census MicroData website to illustrate how microdata may be used to assess development and pinpoint basic human needs at local administrative levels over time. We calculate a Human Development Index-like measure for small administrative areas, where much of the responsibility lies for executing policies related to health, education and general well-being. The methodological proposals introduced in this paper are particularly pertinent for the case of Africa. While it is true that data for much of Africa is not appropriate for economic growth rates or per-capita income estimates, the analysis in this paper demonstrates that they are good enough for many other purposes. Indeed, a major aggravating problem that contributes to the “African statistical tragedy” is the lack of accessibility to existing census microdata. This paper aims to illustrate the usefulness of census microdata—which are vastly under-utilized in Africa—and hopefully contribute to make them more transparent and freely accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population and housing censuses are large operations mobilizing the whole country. The National Statistical Office, usually in charge of the preparation and implementation of the census, does not have the permanent resources to conduct it on its own and needs support from the national government as well as from local authorities. There are three areas where the government plays a role in a census. It provides the legal framework to conduct the census; funding for the census; and logistical support. Local authorities provide also logistical support and, in some countries, a 'democratic control' of the fairness of the enumeration operations. However, the involvement of national and local authorities in the census operations is not without pitfalls. The independence of the census may be jeopardized, and the census perceived by the population as an administrative operation rather than a statistical one. This may entail lack of trust from the population on the use of the data and the confidentiality guaranteed to the information provided. Based on examples in the Western Balkans, Asia and Africa, the paper discusses the optimal balance between governance support and influence avoided in the population and housing census operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A community’s cultural beliefs, attitudes and discourse can affect their responses in surveys. Knowledge of these cultural factors and how to comply with them or adjust for them during data collection can improve data quality. Objective: This study describes implications of features of Gambian culture related to women’s reproductive health, and mortality, when collecting data in surveys. Methods: 13 in-depth interviews of female interviewers and a focus group discussion among male interviewers were conducted in two rural health and demographic surveillance systems as well as three key informant interviews in three regions in The Gambia. Results: From the fieldworker’s viewpoint, questions relating to reproduction were best asked by women as culturally pregnancies should be concealed, and menstruation is considered a sensitive topic. Gambians were reluctant to speak about decedents and the Fula did not like to be counted, potentially affecting estimation of mortality. Asking about siblings proved problematic among the Fula and Serahule communities. Proposals made to overcome these challenges were that culturally-appropriate metaphors and symbols should be used to discuss sensitive matters and to enumerating births/deaths singly instead of collecting summary totals, which had threatening connotations. This was as opposed to training interviewers to ask standardised and precise verbatim questions. Contribution: This paper presents indigenous Gambian solutions by fieldworkers to culturally sensitive topics when collecting pregnancy outcomes and mortality data in demographic and health surveys. For researchers collecting maternal mortality data, it highlights the potential shortcomings of the sibling history methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do elections in some ethnically diverse constituencies resemble an ethnic census, while in others ethnicity plays a less prominent role? Prior literature on ethnic bloc voting in Africa suggests that political parties acquire ethnic 'labels' that tacitly signal which groups belong to the party. In ethnic census-style elections, voters and politicians then use ethnicity as a heuristic for deciding which party to support. However, ethnic censuses are not the only possible outcome in diverse constituencies. Links between ethnic identities and political parties can create a disconnect between locally and nationally relevant identities that affects the dynamics of local elections. Drawing on data from over 160 semi-structured, qualitative interviews and detailed election results in four ethnically diverse Kenyan parliamentary constituencies, I show how local constructions of ethnic difference mediate the effects of national political dynamics and shape patterns of political competition in parliamentary elections, affecting the behaviour of politicians and voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination as a public health problem requires the interruption of transmission by administration of preventive mass drug administration (MDA) to the eligible population living in endemic districts. Suboptimal MDA coverage leads to persistent parasite transmission with consequential infection, disease and disability, and the need for continuing MDA rounds, requiring considerable investment. Routine coverage reports must be verified in each MDA implementation unit (IU) due to incorrect denominators and numerators used to calculate coverage estimates with administrative data. IU are usually the health districts. Coverage is verified so IU teams can evaluate their outreach and take appropriate action to improve performance. Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have conducted MDA campaigns for LF since 2009 and 2014, respectively. To verify district reports and assess the declared achievement using administrative data of the minimum 80% coverage of eligible people (or 65% of the total population), both countries conducted rapid probability surveys using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS)(n = 1102) in 2015 and 2016 in 58 IU in 49 districts. The surveys identified IU with suboptimal coverage, reasons for not residents did not take the medication, place where the medication was received, information sources, and knowledge about diseases prevented by the MDA. LQAS identified four inadequately covered IU triggering district team performance reviews with provincial and national teams and district retreatment. Provincial estimates using probability samples (weighted by populations sizes) were 10 and 17 percentage points lower than reported coverage in DRC and Mozambique. The surveys identified: absence from home during annual MDA rounds as the main reason for low performance and provided valuable information about pre-campaign and campaign activities resulting in improved strategies and continued progress towards elimination of LF and co-endemic Neglected Tropical Diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water point mapping databases, generated through surveys of water sources such as wells and boreholes, are now available in many low and middle income countries, but often suffer from incomplete coverage. To address the partial coverage in such databases and gain insights into spatial patterns of water resource use, this study investigated the use of a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to predict the geospatial distribution of drinking-water sources, using two types of unimproved sources in Kenya as illustration. Geographic locations of unprotected dug wells and surface water sources derived from the Water Point Data Exchange (WPDx) database were used as inputs to the MaxEnt model alongside geological/hydrogeological and socio-economic covariates. Predictive performance of the MaxEnt models was high (all > 0.9) based on Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), and the predicted spatial distribution of water point was broadly consistent with household use of these unimproved drinking-water sources reported in household survey and census data. In developing countries where geospatial datasets concerning drinking-water sources often have necessarily limited resolution or incomplete spatial coverage, the modelled surface can provide an initial indication of the geography of unimproved drinking-water sources to target unserved populations and assess water source vulnerability to contamination and hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We assessed feasibility of an HIV-combination-prevention trial among fishing communities in Uganda. Design: Cluster randomised trial in four fishing communities on Lake Victoria, Uganda. Two intervention communities received a combination-prevention-package (behaviour change communication, condom promotion, HIV testing, voluntary male medical circumcision and referral for anti-retroviral therapy if HIV-positive). All four communities received routine government HIV care services. Methods: Using household census data we randomly selected a cohort of consenting residents aged ≥18 years. A baseline sero-survey in July 2014 was followed by two repeat surveys in March and December 2015. We measured uptake of HIV prevention methods, loss-to-follow-up and HIV incidence, accounting for multistage survey design. Results: A total of 862 participants were enrolled and followed for 15 months. Participation was 62% and 74% in the control and intervention arms respectively; Overall loss to follow up (LTFU) was 21.6% and was similar by arm. Self-reported abstinence/faithfulness increased between baseline and endline in both arms from 53% to 73% in the control arm, and 55% to 67% in the intervention arm. Reported condom use throughout the study period was 36% in the intervention arm vs 28% in the control arm; number of male participants reporting circumsicion in both arms from 58% to 79% in the intervention arm, and 39% to 46% in the control arm. Independent baseline predictors of loss-to-follow-up were: being HIV positive, residence in the community for <1 year, younger age, living in an urban area, and being away from the area for >1 month/year Conclusions: Recruitment and retention of participants in longitudinal trials in highly mobile HIV fishing communities is challenging. Future research should investigate modes for locating and retaining participants, and delivery of HIV-combination prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to review the current state of knowledge on the pitfalls around definitions of the urban and the use of census data in estimating and tracking changes in urban populations. Differing criteria for the urban population and changing definitions make comparisons of levels of urbanisation very difficult across countries. Where censuses are held infrequently and administered less rigorously, accurate data on the urban population are a particular problem. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary African cities are increasingly important sites of urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is far less knowledge about these smaller cities. This article therefore looks at issues around estimates of populations in sub-Saharan cities and why this is a particular problem in smaller cities. Some of the implications of these problems are discussed, as well as measures to improve our understanding of the urbanisation process in smaller cities. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article aims to make an empirical and theoretical contribution towards the creation of a continent-wide dataset on African population extending into the pre- 1950 era. We investigate the reliability and the validity of the current population databases with the aim of working towards a consensus on the long-term series of African total population with a reliable 1950 benchmark. The cases of Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana are explored to show the uneven coverage of census taking in colonial and post-colonial Africa and to demonstrate the need for an upward adjustment of the conventional 1950 benchmark. In addition, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of Manning's approach of projecting population growth estimates backwards in time by adopting the available Indian census data as African 'default growth rates', and we propose an alternative approach by incorporating the demographic experiences of tropical land-abundant countries in South-East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]